December 22, 2000

D-Day is Upon Us

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Draft Day is like Christmas, New Year's and your birthday all wrapped into one.  Last year, though, Draft Day was just a little less than thrilling, considering the fact that other than Alex Fernandez and Matt Mantei, there wasn't too much worth getting excited about.

But this year, one year into the BDBL's Era of Contracts, there are plenty of good players to be had - at least for the first two rounds.  With that in mind, I've written a little "mock draft" of the first two rounds just to whet our appetites a bit.

Of course, I'm writing this piece over a week before Cutdown Day, and the way trading has gone in this league, everything I'm about to write will probably become out-dated by the time you read this.  In any event, I have tried to estimate not which picks I feel should be made, but rather guess which picks I think will be made.  I'm wrong about as often as I'm right, so it will be fun to see how close I came to predicting the actual outcome.

ROUND ONE

#1: New Milford.  The Blazers cannot afford a $10m pick, which makes it a shame that they didn't trade this valuable pick.

#2: South Carolina.  This one is a no-brainer.  Al Leiter becomes the first player chosen in the 2001 BDBL draft.

#3: South Carolina.  This is the biggest mystery of the draft.  The Sea Cats enter Cutdown Day with $29.1 million allocated to ten players (after cutting $1.1 million Manny Martinez.)  Assuming they keep Jim Edmonds ($5m), Bobby Higginson ($5m), Mitch Meluskey ($2m), Warren Morris ($100k) and Mark Redman ($100k), that puts them at $41.3m for 15 players.  This assumes that South Carolina would be cutting two players (Carl Pavano and Jeremy Giambi) who were acquired over the past two seasons at the sacrifice of Tom Glavine, Dustin Hermanson and Freddy Garcia.   If all of these assumption hold, South Carolina will enter the draft with $22.5 million (including incentive bonuses) to spend on 20 players.  Can South Carolina use this pick - which was acquired at the VERY hefty price of their valuable #2 and #6 picks?   They can, if they don't mind waiting until the 26th round to choose another player.   The only other option is cutting Higginson, which doesn't make much sense given the numbers he put up last year.  However, the Sea Cats have two outfielders under contract already (Henry Rodriguez and Ray Lankford), and will certainly be keeping Edmonds.  So there is a question about where Higginson would play.  Assuming they do keep Higginson, and they do use this pick, they will be forced to spend every one of their 18 other picks on $100k players.  And if they do use this pick, they will likely choose Tom Glavine, the next-best player available.  Having Leiter and Glavine in the rotation, with Higginson, Edmonds, Sweeney and Larkin in the lineup, would probably ensure at least a .500 finish for a team that finished with 98 losses last year.  And it would give Sea Cats owner Tony DeCastro the mid-season option of trading one (or both) aces for some serious building material.  Let's just hope he doesn't trade him to the Zoots for Angel Pena and a bag of stale pretzels.

#4: Marlboro.  I see that Ken "The Shark" Kaminski is now peddling this pick on the BDBL message board, so who knows who will end up with it.  I'm not really sure why he's so eager to part with it, because in order to figure that out, I'd have to delve into the frightening mind of Ken Kaminski, and I'm just not willing to do that for the sake of this article.  If Kaminski does use this pick, I'd bet donuts to dollars (yes, the juxtaposition is intentional) that Kaminski will take Roger Clemens with this pick.  That would give him a Big Three of Clemens, Vazquez and Rusch in his starting rotation - by far the best rotation this franchise has ever had.

#5: Akron.  According to my calculations, Akron goes into D-Day with $11.9 million to spend on 12 players.  If they wanted to, they could use this pick to land Robb Nen, Moises Alou or David Wells.  But I don't think they will.  If they use this pick, they'd be left with one $500k pick and ten $100k picks.   If they don't use this pick, they can pick one $5m, one $3m, one $2m, one $1m and eight $100k's.  If all three of the big-name pitchers are gone, the benefit of having picks to use in those rounds to fill out the roster probably outweighs the benefit of having one of those three players.  If South Carolina doesn't use their #3 pick, though, and Clemens is still available, Akron might consider it.  Having Pedro and Roger in the same rotation might be too tempting to pass up. 

#6: Gillette.  With $37 million tied up in Vinny Castilla ($6m), Juan Gonzalez ($10m), Bill Spiers ($3m), Andy Ashby ($6m) and Jose Lima ($6m), you have to wonder whether Scott Boras is negotiating the contracts of every player on the Gillette roster.  Thankfully, Rafael Bournigal, Edgard Clemente, Angel Echevarria, Brian Boehringer, Kent Mercker, Mike Oquist and Craig Grebeck all failed to amass enough at-bats and innings last year, or Gillette would be stuck with an additional $9.8 million in wasted salary.   Gillette has $43.2 million allocated to ten contracted players.  In order to get to the 15-player minimum, let's add keepers Rafael Furcal, Bobby Chouinard, Melvin Mora, Miguel Del Toro and Luke Prokopec.  I'd imagine that Gillette would rather have the two extra farm picks than the two extra $100k picks, so let's add Steve Rain and Jake Westbrook to the 35-man roster as well.  That's 17 players for $44.7 million.   Take away $2.8 million in penalties and Gillette is looking at a $16 million Draft Day budget for 18 players.  If I were Gillette, I'd use this first-round pick on the next-best player, then trade that player for future considerations.  (Then again, if I were Gillette, I would have accepted the pre-season trade offer I made which would have stocked the Swamp Rats roster with promising young prospects...but I digress.)  The next-best player IMHO is Robb Nen.  He also happens to have the highest trade value (also IMHO.)  That leaves Gillette with one $3m pick, one $1m, one $500k and 14 $100k's.

#7: Massillon.  Like Gillette, Massillon has a ton of money allocated to some really awful players ($34.6 million invested in David Bell, Dante Bichette, Einar Diaz, Lenny Harris, Todd Walker, Chris Carpenter, Brian Moehler, Shane Reynolds and Ricardo Rincon.)  Like Gillette, Massillon has a huge amount of penalties to deal with ($2.9m.)  And like Gillette, Massillon would probably be best served by using this pick, then trading it mid-season for something of future value.  The problem is, Massillon only has $6.8 million left to spend on 19 players.   The best they can do is draft one $5m player and 18 $100k's.

#8: Perth.  Thanks to Rule 18.13, Perth is in excellent position for Draft Day.  Not only can Perth afford a $10m player, they can also take two $5m's.  Since Perth is in desperate need of a starting pitcher, my guess is that they'll use this pick to acquire David Wells.

#9: Allentown.  Like Perth, Allentown has also benefited immensely from Rule 18.13.  Like Perth, Allentown also has the luxury of drafting not only a $10m player, but two $5m's as well.  And like Perth, Allentown is also in desperate need of pitching.  The only problem is, with the Big Four gone, there aren't really any other starters out there who are worth $10m.  Allentown could decide to punt this round, given that there aren't really many $10m-worthy players remaining.  But if you have the money to spend, why not use it?  Why waste an opportunity to get the 6th-best player available in order to get two or three players in the weaker rounds?  Especially if this team is building for 2002, it would make sense to acquire the best player available for future trade consideration.  That's why I believe Allentown will choose Jorge Posada with this pick.

#10: Bowling Green. Bowling Green goes into the draft with $13.5 million to spend on 15 players.  They could afford one $10m player, one $2m and thirteen $100k's.  They could also afford one $5m, one $3m, one $2m, two $1m's, one $500k and nine $100k's.  Normally, given the talent available at this point in the draft, I would think that Bowling Green would pass this round, in anticipation of using their $5m pick in Round Two for a decent offensive player.  However, because Bowling Green exchanged second round picks with Los Altos, I wouldn't be surprised to see them use this $10m pick, knowing they won't pick again until the 23rd pick of Round Two.  I'm guessing, however, that they will, in fact, pass, opting instead for the more balanced draft.

#11: Villanova.  The Mustangs traded their #2 pick, and traded for Southern Cal's #2.  So either they aren't planning to draft in Round One, or they're planning to waste that #2 pick.  Of course, they could draft in the first AND second rounds, but only if they want to pick 16 $100k players.  My guess is that, considering the fact that Villanova is already set at catcher and the outfield, they will pass.  They could upgrade here with Jason Kendall over their catcher-by-committee of Mark Johnson and Mike Redmond, but I think they'll opt for the more balanced draft.

#12: Marlboro.  The Hammerheads already chose their $10 million stud in this draft, so they will pass.

#13: Bear Country.  The Jamboree have had a strange off-season.  They come into this draft with $20.4 million to spend on 20 players, and they could easily afford a player in this round.  Since they have no catcher and only one and a half outfielders (Carlos Lee and Rondell White), they could use this pick to acquire Jason Kendall, Moises Alou or David Justice.  Even after spending $10 million up front, they would still have enough to pick a $5m player, a $3m, a $1m and 12 $100k's.   However, Bear Country has spent a lot of effort this off-season acquiring most of the Los Altos Undertakers' draft picks.  Since Los Altos drafts 23rd in each round, this means Bear Country is locked into two $5m picks and three $3m picks if they are to use all of these picks (and if they aren't planning to use them, why would they have traded for them in the first place?)   So my guess is that Bear Country picks two $5m players, three $3m's and 13 $100k's and passes in Round One.

#14-#24: The rest of the teams on the draft list are all right up against the cap, so all will likely pass.

ROUND TWO

#1: New Milford.  At this point, the best players in the draft are all hitters.  Which is a good thing for the Blazers, since they need a hitter about as much as Peter Angelos needs a clue.  With an outfield of Paul O'Neill, Marvin Benard and Randy Winn, the Blazers could definitely use an upgrade in that area.  They could also use an upgrade at catcher, where Ben Davis and Joe Girardi will be sharing the duties.  Let's face it...the Blazers' offense could use an upgrade just about everywhere!  The next best hitter available is Moises Alou, although Kendall might be a more attractive $5m player for the future since he's seven years younger.  Since Blazers GM Billy Romaniello has never been afraid of drafting old-timers in the past, though, my bet is that Alou goes with this pick.

#2: Manchester.  Jim Doyle shrewdly stole this pick in exchange for his #1 pick, giving him two of the top three picks in the second round.   With Charles Johnson entrenched at catcher, Kendall is probably out of the race.  With Todd Helton at first, the large array of production first basemen available are also unlikely to be chosen by the Irish Rebels.  And with a full-time shortstop in place (Royce Clayton), Jose Valentin is also an unlikely choice.  That leaves an outfielder such as David Justice, Ellis Burks, John Vanderwal, Kenny Lofton or Cliff Floyd.  It also leaves the next-best pitcher in line.  At this point, however, the best starters available (Rick Helling, Brian Anderson, Shawn Estes, Albie Lopez, etc.) aren't really worth a high second-round pick.  And the best relievers (Turk Wendell, Curt Leskanic, Tim Worrell, Greg Swindell, Rick White, etc.) don't exactly get the blood boiling, either.  So my guess here is that Manchester chooses David Justice with this pick.

#3: Manchester.  And with this pick, Manchester chooses Ellis Burks.  That gives them an outfield trio of Burks, Justice and Everett to go with super sluggers Todd Helton, Chipper Jones and Charles Johnson.  For a team that has finished 11th in their twelve-team league in runs scored for the past two years, this would be a dramatic change in philosophy (which makes me a little frightened to be in the same division.)

#4: Marlboro.  If everything has gone exactly as I have predicted so far (and what are the chances of that??), I know with 100-percent certainty that Ken Kaminski will choose Jason Kendall with this pick.  At least, that's what I would have done if I still owned this pick.

#5: Marlboro.  Kaminski has some very interesting possibilities with this pick.  He's already snagged Roger Clemens and Jason Kendall so far in this draft.  The best hitters available at this point are all first basemen (Will Clark, Andres Galaragga, David Segui, Brad Fullmer, etc.), and the Hammerheads are set with former Salem team captain John Olerud.  Of course, Olerud is basically a platoon player this year, but you don't spend a pick like this to fill half a platoon.   I believe that instead, the Hammerheads will go for a pitcher with this pick.   Now, he could choose one of the aforementioned solid-yet-unexciting starters or relievers.  But if I know The Shark (and I'm pretty sure I do), he will use this pick to choose Matt Morris.  Why?  Because he knows I covet him.

#6: Stamford.  Ah, yes.  The infamous pick that was acquired at the franchise-choking cost of Angel Pena and Bobby Chouinard.  How will the Zoots possibly receive enough value with this pick to make up for the devastating loss of Pena and Chouinard??  Well, let's see.  The Zoots could use a left fielder, which would make their most attractive option either John Vanderwal or Cliff Floyd.  Of the two, I would say Floyd is definitely the more "Zoots-like" player.  The Zoots may also consider David Segui, who could play right field (albeit a "Pr" right field.)  However, I'm sticking with my prediction of Floyd - if the Zoots take a hitter.  It's a very likely possibility they could take a pitcher.  My guess is that it would be a toss-up between a couple of Ricks: Helling and White.  So the Final Three would be either Floyd, Helling or White.  I'm thinking that the Zoots need a starting pitcher more than they need a left fielder or a reliever, so I'm going with Helling.

#7: Massillon.  If Massillon chooses a player in this round, they are stuck with choosing a grand total of EIGHTEEN $100k players.  I don't think they'll do that, so I'm guessing they'll pass.

#8: Perth.  Aside from Roberto Hernandez, the Breeze don't have another good reliever on the staff.  So my bet is that they choose Turk Wendell with this pick.

#9: Allentown.  The Ridgebacks need a first baseman, and they need some youth from which to build for the future.  So the easy choice here is Sean Casey.

#10: Los Altos.  Never one to shy away from adding another quality bullpen arm, Jeff Paulson could use this pick to acquire someone like Curt Leskanic, Greg Swindell or Rick White.  But my guess is that Paulson chooses his favorite player of all time, Will Clark, then moves Paul Konerko to third.  Put this one in the bank and cash it.

#11: Gillette.  If Gillette does what I think they'll do (or at least what I think they should do) and choose Robb Nen with their first pick, they will not be able to afford this pick.

#12: Akron.  The Ryche are already set at every offensive position with the exception of second base, and their entire pitching staff from one to ten is set.  With that in mind, the two best options at second are former Ryche member Damian Easley or Randy Velarde.  Easley is a little better offensively, but has a little less range in the field.  Nevertheless, I'm guessing Easley returns home.

#13: Bear Country.  The first of two picks for the Jamboree this round.  The Jamboree could definitely use a catcher.  Only problem is, once you get past Kendall and Posada, there aren't any others available.  They could probably use another middle reliever, but what they really need is a good-hitting outfielder.  In that case, either Cliff Floyd or John Vanderwal seems to be the two best options.  I'm guessing it will be Floyd.

#14: Kansas.  Always on the lookout for more offense, I believe the Law Dogs will use this pick to acquire David Segui.  With Segui, Drew, Dye, Glaus, Fryman, Gonzalez and Lopez playing half their games in Coors Field, if this team doesn't break the BDBL record for runs scored, I will quit my job and start working on the "Hillary in 2004" campaign full-time.

#15: Los Altos.  Gee, another draft pick acquired by Los Altos!  Always on the lookout for more stolen bases, and in need of a center fielder, expect Los Altos to reacquire Kenny Lofton with this pick.

#16: Phoenix.  The Predators' infield and pitching staff seem to be pretty set.  That leaves the outfield.  And John Vanderwal seems to be the most logical choice remaining.

#17: Villanova.  The Mustangs could use this pick to acquire a shortstop (most likely, Jose Valentin.)  However, I think they need a starting pitcher more than anything else.  Given that, I'd guess they'd take Brian Anderson, who would be a good fit in the Mustangs' lefty-friendly park.

#18: Kansas.  Kansas comes into the draft with $8.9 million to spend on eleven players, which means they won't be able to afford two $5 million picks.  With that in mind, they'll have no choice but to pass on this pick.

#19: Salem.  Ugh...this is what I get for finishing with just enough wins to make the playoffs.  It's no secret that I could use a shortstop, and Jose Valentin is clearly the best offensive option available at that position.  As much as I'm turned off by his defense and his lopsided splits, I guess I'd have no choice but to take him.

#20: Madison.  The Mimes are in desperate need of starting pitching, so my guess is that they choose either Kirk Reuter or Frank Castillo.   Since they need a ton of innings, and Reuter has 46 more than Castillo, my money is on Reuter.

#21: Stamford.  The Zoots can't afford to make this pick - and even if they could, they wouldn't use it.

#22: Litchfield.  Litchfield really can't afford this pick, either.  They could use it, but likely won't.  Not with the "talent" that remains in the draft pool by this point.

#23: Bear Country.  With the second $5m pick of this round, I believe the Jamboree will go for a solid reliever.  Curt Leskanic should do nicely.

#24: Chicago.  The Black Sox really can't afford another $5m player, so they'll likely pass.