June 17, 2001

Ten Trades from 1999

I've always loved reviewing and rating old trades, both in the Major Leagues and fantasy leagues such as this one.  But I've avoided writing about this topic because I've learned that a lot of people's skins aren't quite as thick as mine, and when you say a trade was lousy, some people take that as a personal attack.   But since we're in the midst of another trading deluge, and judging trades has become a favorite pastime of Message Board Nation, I felt it was finally safe to cover this hot topic.

Since most trades can't be fairly judged until a significant amount of time has passed, I'd like to take a look at the trades made two years ago, during the BDBL's inaugural season.  There are three ways to judge a trade: 1) the circumstances surrounding the players at the time the trade was made, 2) the performance of the players involved after the trade, and 3) the future potential of the players involved.  Below, I've listed ten of the most interesting trades from the 1999 BDBL season, taking all three factors into consideration.  I then try to judge (to the best of my unbiased ability) who got the better of the deal in my "final analysis" section.

What I'd like you to do is keep an open mind and don't take anything personally.  Through past experience, I know this will be a stretch for some of you (one in particular.)  But if you promise to keep an open mind, I will promise to be just as impartial and unbiased in my reporting as the writers from the Boston Globe and New York Times.

Here are the trades (in no particular order):

Trade #1: New Milford Blazers traded Randy Johnson and their #2 and #6 picks to the Stamford Zoots for Jose Rosado, Darryl Ward and Stamford's #2 and #6 picks.

At the time: Johnson earned the dubious honor of becoming the first-ever New Milford Blazer after a Jeckle-and-Hyde MLB season in which he pouted like a baby through the first half (when he - by his own admission - gave only half an effort), then pitched like Sandy Koufax in the second half, when he was finally traded by those ungrateful bastards in Seattle who refused to show him the respect he so deserved (in the form of $40 million over four years.)  Rosado was a 25-year-old lefty with impressive stats (174.2 IP, 180 H, 57 BB, 135 K, 4.69 ERA) and a $1 million salary.  Ward was a modern day Ken Harvey, buried behind Jeff Bagwell in Houston.

What has happened: The rest, as they say, is history.  The Zoots rode Johnson's arm to two straight championship titles.  Without Johnson, who earned the "W" in two of Stamford's three wins against Salem in the 1999 OLDS, won a crucial Game Seven against Southern Cal in the '99 World Series, carried the Zoots into the 2000 playoffs with an OL Cy Young season, and compiled a 1.96 ERA in six post-season games in the 2000 playoffs, the Zoots would not be the two-time defending champions.  Rosado pitched well at the Major League level in 1999 (208 IP, 197 H, 72 BB, 141 K, 3.85 ERA), but was horrendous for the Blazers (but then again, who isn't horrendous for the Blazers?), posting an Astacio-like 6.26 ERA through 129.1 innings.  Unfortunately, all the innings his clueless manager, Bob Boone, piled on his young, fragile arm for four years finally caught up to him, and Rosado has thrown only 27.2 MLB innings since then.  The Blazers eventually traded him as part of the five-player deal that brought Greg Maddux.  In 511 career at-bats, Ward has posted an impressive 33 homers, but a lowly .310 OBP, and has yet to crack 264 AB's at the MLB level.  And what about those draft picks, you ask?  Ah, yes, the draft picks.   The Zoots converted both picks into Eric Davis, Ricky Bottalico, Ramiro Mendoza and Luis Alicea.  Davis hit .358/.410/.618 in 123 AB's for Stamford, allowing them to squeak by the Antioch Angels into the playoffs.  Alicea single-handedly won Game Seven of the 1999 OLCS with two homers in a 2-1 win against Litchfield.  Bottalico never amounted to much, but Mendoza (along with Troy O'Leary) eventually fetched Donne Wall and Bobby Chouinard in trade - two players who were integral to the Zoots's 2000 championship.

Looking ahead: Johnson currently leads the Ozzie League in both wins and strikeouts.  Teamed with Kevin Brown for a third straight year, the Zoots have an automatic advantage in any short series since no other team (outside of possibly South Carolina) can match those two arms for four games.  The only other player remaining from this deal that is still signed to a contract is Ward, who was signed to a four-year, $6.4 million deal prior to this season.  He is on pace to amass 254 at-bats in the majors this year, ten less than his all-time high.

Final analysis: This trade is already legendary.  No further commentary necessary.

Trade #2:  Akron traded Eric Davis and Ricky Bottalico to Stamford for Darin Erstad.

At the time: Davis was an MVP candidate for the Delafield Ogres, who drafted him in the third round for the hefty sum of $5 million.  Davis hit .375/.426/.704 in 216 at-bats for Delafield, but was shockingly traded to Akron after two chapters as Delafield's new ownership opted to go with speed (Rickey Henderson) and pitching (Rick Reed.)  As Delafield dropped in the standings, Davis performed brilliantly for the hard-charging Ryche, hitting .351/.426/535 through 38 games (114 AB's.)  But at $5 million in salary, and with the Ryche slipping out of contention as the final trading deadline approached, Akron traded their star to the Zoots, where he became valuable protection for cleanup hitter Rafael Palmeiro.  Erstad had been acquired by the Zoots in exchange for the Blazers's #3 draft pick.  At 24 years old, he was coming off a very promising MLB season in which he hit .296/.353/.486, but was struggling badly in 1999.  Bottalico was simply a throw-in.

What has happened: For a while, it looked like the Zoots were the overwhelming winners in this trade.  Davis, as mentioned, hit .358/.410/.618 in 123 AB's down the stretch while Erstad became one of the worst full-time position players in baseball, hitting .253/.308/.374 in his fourth professional season.  At $5 million, he seemed to be a sure bet to be released outright as the league's first-ever Cutdown Day approached.  But instead, Akron GM DJ Shepard made the ballsy decision to sign Erstad to a three year deal worth a whopping $18 million.  Erstad rewarded his GM's confidence in a huge way, batting .355/.409/.541.  His numbers for Akron this season (.357/.404/.593) are right on the money, and his 81.1 runs created to this point lead the high-powered Akron offense.

Looking ahead: Erstad still has one year remaining on his contract.  At $7 million, he is hitting a respectable .289/.347/.421 in the big leagues so far this season.  He's not worth $7 million yet, but there's still a lot of season left to play.

Final analysis: Without Davis, Stamford may not have won the 1999 Butler Division pennant.  Without Erstad, Akron may not be at the top of the Hrbek Division this season.  This trade now looks like a win-win for both teams.

Trade #3: The Bourbannais Bad Boys traded Dave Veres, Corey Patterson, Terrell Wade and Kimera Bartee to the New Milford Blazers for Billy Wagner.

At the time: The Blazers were in the middle of a frantic rebuilding effort, trading away Johnson, Robb Nen and Wagner within the span of two chapters.  Bourbannais was fighting for a wild card spot they eventually won.  Patterson was one year out of high school and had just started playing in the rookie league.  Veres was a good pitcher (2.83 ERA in 76.1 IP) in a bad ballpark (Coors).  And Wagner (2.70 ERA, 60 IP, 46 H, 97 K) was one of the most dominant closers in the game.

What has happened: Wagner compiled a 1.33 ERA over 20 1/3 innings, saving ten games down the stretch for the Bad Boys, but later became a major headache for the Bourbannais franchise's new owner (Jim Doyle of the Manchester Irish Rebels.)  After signing him to a four year, $26 million deal, Wagner blew out his arm and pitched only 27.2 innings at the MLB level in 1999.  Veres had an off-year in 1999 at the MLB level (5.14 ERA through 77 IP), which carried over to the BDBL (6.21 over 82.2).  Unfortunately, his rebound at the MLB level (2.85 ERA in 75.2 IP for St. Louis in 2000) has not carried over to the BDBL (5.15 over 43.2).  Patterson, meanwhile, was ranked as the top prospect in baseball in my pre-season compilation, and was ranked no lower than third by any of our "panel of experts."

Looking ahead: Wagner has two years remaining on that monster contract, and has rebounded (2.88 ERA through 25 IP) this year to the relief of Manchester fans everywhere.  Veres has one year remaining (at $3m less than Wagner) and is having another good MLB season.  Whether that translates to a good BDBL season remains to be seen.  Patterson has already made the jump to Triple-A, but is struggling (.254/.304/.393, with 18 BB's and 48 K's.)

Final analysis: If Patterson ever learns the difference between a ball and a strike, he could be a minimum-wage bargain some day soon.  Whether he becomes Sammy Sosa or Ruben Rivera remains to be seen.  If you call Veres and Wagner a wash, based upon their contracts, then this trade rests upon the career of Mr. Patterson.

Trade #5: The Chicago Black Sox traded Moises Alou, Joey Hamilton, Juan Guzman and Antonio Osuna to the California Storm for Richard Hidalgo and Rick Ankiel. 

At the time: Alou, Hamilton, Guzman and Osuna represented $12 million in salary to Hidalgo and Ankiel's $2 million combined.  Alou was hitting .318/.383/.581 for the Black Sox, Hamilton was 5-5 with a respectable 3.76 ERA, Guzman was 3-6/4.54 and Osuna was 2-0/4.43 with 27 K's in 22 innings.  Hidalgo was a 24-year-old prospect coming off a .303/.355/.474 MLB season.  And Ankiel was the first player chosen in the farm draft.

What has happened: Alou hit .333/.431/.680 down the stretch for the Storm.  Hamilton was phenomenal, posting a 12-3 record along with a 3.21 ERA.   Guzman was a respectable 6-5 with a 4.41 ERA.  And Osuna compiled a 1.29 ERA over 14 innings, allowing just three hits.  Those four players boosted the Storm to a tie for the wild card, where they lost a one-game showdown with the Bourbannais Bad Boys.   In the 2000 MLB season, both Hidalgo and Ankiel managed to exceed their lofty expectations.  In his first full season, Hidalgo belted 44 homers with 42 doubles, and now ranks among the league leaders in the BDBL.  Ankiel allowed just 137 hits in 175 innings in his first season, striking out 194.  Neither player, however, was on the Chicago roster by the end of the 2000 season.  Ankiel was traded (along with Eric Munson) early in the 2000 season in the legendary deal that brought EL MVP/Babe Ruth winner Manny Ramirez.  Hidalgo was actually released by the Black Sox on Cutdown Day, 1999, and picked up by the Plattsburgh Champs.

Looking ahead: Ramirez, the only player remaining from this deal, continues to blister the ball for the Sox and was named the starting right fielder for the Eck League this season.  At $6 million this season, $7 million in 2002 and $8 million in 2003, Ramirez is considered to be one of the better bargains in the league.

Final analysis: On the one hand, trading two of baseball's top prospects for a failed run at the wild card seemed a bit short-sighted.  But on the other hand, the players acquired by the Storm gave them an opportunity at the post-season.  All things considered, the biggest winner in this deal is John Gill, who managed to trade four non-keepers for an MVP.

Trade #6: The Chicago Black Sox traded Tim Salmon to the Salem Cowtippers for Roger Cedeno.

At the time: Salmon was hitting .303/.423/.600 for the Sox, while Cedeno was one of the better leadoff hitters in the National League, leading the league in steals and placing among the top ten in OBP (all at the minimum-wage salary of $100k.)

What has happened: Salmon provided crucial protection for Ellis Burks and John Olerud in the Salem Cowtippers lineup, hitting .263/.383/.433.   He hit .313 in the Cowtippers' failed attempt at advancing past the OLDS.  He then missed half of the 1999 MLB season, but was signed to a two year deal.  In the 2000 BDBL season, Salmon helped the Cowtippers to a second straight division title by hitting .264/.399/.469.  He was eventually traded to the Hammerheads as part of the deal that landed Sammy Sosa and Jeff Bagwell.  Cedeno hit .351/.420/.499 and scored 109 runs as the leadoff hitter for the record-breaking 2000 Black Sox offense.  He also led the league with 81 steals.  This season, Cedeno has been shifted to a part-time role, hitting .263/.400/.355 through 76 at-bats.

Looking ahead: Bagwell was named as the starting first baseman for this year's OL all-star team, and Sosa also made the team as a backup.   Both players still have one year remaining on their $10 million contracts.   Cedeno has two years remaining, though the Black Sox are trying desperately to unload that deal.

Final analysis: I've made a lot of bad trades in this league, but this one I've always been proud of.  I gambled by trading Cedeno when he was hot, and managed to get a very good, solid hitter who contributed to my team for a year and half.  My proudest accomplishment in relation to this trade, though, was that I traded lefty specialist Donovan Osbourne in order to get Cedeno.  I made both trades within a span of a few weeks, so in essence I ended up trading Osbourne for Salmon.   This trade, and the trade that brought Mark Teixeira last season, rank as the two best trades I've ever made.

Trade #7: The Los Altos Undertakers traded Brad Fullmer, Richie Sexson and their #6 and #7 picks to the North Mankato Mud Hens for Mo Vaughn.

At the time: This trade was made at the eleventh hour, just before the final trading deadline of the year.  Los Altos, who would win 99 games that season, was looking to add some left-handed punch to go along with Larry Walker, sandwiched between righty slugger Albert Belle.  Fullmer and Sexson were both highly-touted rookies with strong bats and sparkling resumes.  Vaughn was the reigning AL MVP, and was hitting .288/.347/.529 with 28 homers and 93 RBI's at the time of the trade.  

What has happened: Vaughn hit .318/.399/.605 with 13 more homers and 49 more RBI's over the final two chapters.  Los Altos earned the top seed in the playoffs, but were blindsided by the short-staffed Litchfield Lightning in the OLDS.  That winter, Los Altos traded Vaughn and Darryl Hamilton for Tino Martinez and Kenny Lofton.  Martinez was then traded for Sean Casey before the start of the season.  Casey was then traded for Paul Konerko later in the season.  Did you follow all that?  Fullmer had an awful season (.220/.258/.390) for the division-winning Fox in 2000.  His contract expired at the end of last season, and he was picked up in this year's draft by...the Undertakers!  Sexson hit 21 homers and slugged .585 for the Fox in 2000, and is having a breakthrough year this season, hitting .339/.425/.578 with 14 homers.  The Undertakers' #7 pick wasn't used, but Kentucky used the #6 pick on Matt Lawton, who did well in a part-time role with Kentucky last year, and was recently traded to Southern Cal as part of the deal that landed Steve Parris and Octavio Dotel.

Looking ahead: Sexson still has four years remaining on his six-year deal.  He's currently batting .239 for Milwaukee, with a Soriano-like OBP of .298.  He's due to earn $5 million next season and $29m over the next four years.   Kentucky had better hope for either a career resurgence or a career-threatening injury.  Dotel is having a respectable season (3.91 ERA in hitter-friendly Enron), mostly as a middle reliever, and has one year remaining at $1.1m.

Final analysis: The sly Fox scored two powerful, young first basemen in exchange for one fat, aging first baseman.  But in the end, they hurt themselves by giving the better guy the one-year deal and giving six years to the weaker of the two.

Trade #8: The New Milford Blazers traded Robb Nen to the Salem Cowtippers for Ben Davis, Robert Person and Eric Valent.

At the time: Nen was just about unhittable in MLB '98, allowing just 59 hits and 25 walks through 88 2/3 innings while striking out 110 batters and posting an Eck-like ERA of 1.52.  Davis was considered to be the top catching prospect in baseball (both offensively and defensively) by everyone associated with the game, with the exception of Tim Zigmund.  Person won the closer's job out of spring training in '99, but struggled early.  And Valent was an NCAA home run champion and '98 draft pick who was considered to be a five-tool prospect.

What has happened: Well, what happened immediately after this trade was an outburst of protest by a majority of owners who felt this trade violated the "best interests of the game."  In fact, two of these owners were so outraged, they quit the league over it (well, that and other irrational things.)  For Salem, Nen would compile an unimpressive 2.92 ERA, a 2-2 record, 53 hits, 17 walks and 4 homers allowed in 49 miserable innings.   Despite pitching only four chapters for Salem, Nen tied for the team lead in blown saves, with five.  Person's career took off after his trade from Toronto to Philadelphia in 1999.  He went 10-5 with a 4.27 ERA for Philly that year, then went 9-7 with a 3.63 ERA in 2000, striking out 8.5 batters per game while allowing just 7.5 hits per game.  Unfortunately, his success hasn't translated to the Blazers, where he is 4-7 with a 5.72 ERA this season.  Davis has become one of the best catchers in the National League, throwing out more than 40% of those baserunners who dare to steal off him, while batting a healthy .281/.384/.427, with 32 walks in 192 at-bats (or, if you prefer, that's 192 Major League at-bats MORE than Mark Johnson this season.)  Unfortunately, New Milford management got tired of waiting for Davis to develop, so they cut him prior to the season.  Valent has followed up three solid minor league seasons with another stellar effort this year.  He's moved up one level per year, and right on schedule he was promoted to the big club last month when the first place Phils needed to replace an injured player.  He was later traded by New Milford as part of the three-way deal that brought Charles Johnson and Sean Burroughs.

Looking ahead: Nen was a four-chapter rent-a-player for Salem, and following his dismal 1999 MLB season, he was packaged as a throw-in on a deal with the Kentucky Fox.  Person has one year remaining, at the bargain-basement price of $2.1 million.  Through 82 1/3 MLB innings this season, he's allowed just 71 hits while striking out 70 and maintaining a respectable 4.37 ERA.  With the injury to Mike Lieberthal, Davis will be filling in very nicely for the Akron Ryche next season.

Final analysis: Though Tim Zigmund still won't admit it, time has proven that this trade has definitely worked out in New Milford's favor, as I suggested it would at the time (and was subsequently mocked for saying so.)  So let me close by saying, "Na na na na na" and "I told ya so."

Trade #9: The South Carolina Sea Cats traded Tom Glavine and a #7 pick to the Southern California Slyme for Jeremy Giambi and a #2 pick.

At the time: At the halfway mark, Glavine was 10-4 with a 3.10 ERA for the Sea Cats, and Giambi (a $1 million bonus baby in the Inaugural Draft) was tearing up the PCL for the second year in a row.

What has happened: Glavine eventually won the EL Cy Young award, finishing the second half of the season with a perfect 14-0 record and 2.06 ERA for the 105-game winning Southern California Slyme.  He took the Slyme all the way to the first BDBL World Series, where he won Game Four, but was out-pitched by Rolando Arrojo in Game One and Randy Johnson in Game Seven.  Prior to the 2000 BDBL season, Glavine was traded to the Madison Fighting Mimes for Bob Wickman.  Wickman then did an about-face a couple weeks later when he was traded back to Madison for Garrett Stephensen.   Stephensen compiled a nice 2.98 ERA over 88 innings for the Slyme in 2000, and is 5-3 with a 4.47 ERA so far this season.  Giambi never quite learned how to translate his PCL success to the big leagues.  After a year of carrying his $1m salary, the Sea Cats released him.  The #7 pick the Slyme acquired in this deal was used on Gregg Olson, who went 6-6 with 8 saves for the Slyme in 2000.  And the #2 pick the Sea Cats received was later packaged with a #3 pick in exchange for Ray Lankford.  (And how ironic it is that Lankford was traded for picks for the second year in a row.  More on that later.)

Looking ahead: Lankford and Stephensen are both signed for one more year.  Lankford is having a solid year, hitting .250/.363/.561, but is probably not worth his $7m salary next year.  Stephensen is apparently injured, so the Sea Cats may be able to escape the remainder of his contract without harm.

Final analysis: The way it is supposed to work is that the contender gives up a player (or players) who will help the non-contender get better in the near future.  In exchange, the contender receives a player who helps to push the team over the top.  In this case, the Slyme got their man (and then some), while the Sea Cats got nothing but salary problems.  Advantage: Slyme.

Trade #10: The Virginia Cavaliers traded Ryan Bradley, Butch Henry, Chad Curtis and draft picks #1, #2, #7, #12 and #13 to the Virginia Cavaliers for Ray Lankford and Todd Stottlemyre.

At the time: This was the first trade ever made in the BDBL, and immediately became the most controversial.  The original deal included only Curtis and the five draft picks in exchange for Lankford and Stottlemyre.   When I answered my door the next day and discovered an angry mob calling for my head on a platter, I revised the trade to add Bradley and Henry to the equation.  At the time, Bradley was listed as the Yankees' #1 prospect and Henry was throwing well for the Mariners after several injury-plagued seasons.  A few weeks after this trade was made, Henry contracted yet another injury - this time career-ending - so I traded Lankford back to the Cavaliers in exchange for Curtis.  So by the following chapter, the deal had become Bradley and five of my draft picks for Todd Stottlemyre.  Not exactly riot-inducing anymore.

What has happened: Lankford was later dealt to Oakville as part of a six-player trade in which Virginia received two more draft picks.  By the end of the season, Lankford's combined numbers for all three teams were of MVP quality.   Stottlemyre went 8-6 for the Cowtippers down the stretch, with a 4.16 ERA, but failed to make the post-season roster.  Bradley's status as a top prospect "jumped the shark" around the middle of the 1999 season.  And what of those five picks?  Scot Zook, who inherited all those picks in what was the weakest draft pool ever, used Salem's seventh round pick to select pinch hitter Brian Simmons.  The other four picks went unused, to the surprise of no one.

Looking ahead: None of the players involved in - or even affiliated with - this deal are still playing for their respective teams.

Final analysis: In the end, all the hysteria, all the threatened resignations and cries for the enforcement of Rule 9.6 were all for nothing.   This trade was about as insubstantial as they come.  The Cowtippers won 99 games without the benefit of Ray Lankford and the Cavaliers were left with Brian Simmons as their grand prize for all the controversy and hoopla. 

The moral to this whole story, I guess, is this: "Don't be too quick to judge a trade."  A trade that may seem to be ridiculously lopsided today may turn out to be pretty tame only two years down the road.   And a trade that may appear even for both sides may, in two years, look like the second coming of Johnson/Rosado.  From now on, we all should promise to look objectively at every trade and see both sides of the story.

With that said, I will close by saying...what was Jim Doyle thinking???  Carl Everett AND Albie Lopez for RICK ANKIEL???