February 25, 2004

BDBL Historical Farm Study, Version 2.0

In a few weeks, I will be posting our annual BDBL Farm Report, which measures all BDBL farm clubs by speculating on their futures, as foretold by the prophets of the prospect world.  Last year at this time, I attempted to measure the past performances of our farm clubs in order to find out which franchises have been most (and least) successful in turning future potential into real, actual performance.  Unfortunately, that study failed miserably.

The problem was that I used subjective analysis as my form of measurement.  I simply eye-balled the players in question, then placed them into buckets: one for "Impact Players", another for "Potential Impact Players" and another for "Waste of Roster Space".  As I should have anticipated, there was significant disagreement over which players belonged in which buckets, and the overall reaction to this study was disbelief, outrage and accusations about my mental instability.  Unfortunately, at that time, I had no other tools at my disposal with which to create a meaningful study.  (Or, perhaps more accurately, those tools did exist, but I was just too lazy to look for them.)

This year, I've decided to tackle this question using a completely different approach.  I've eliminated all subjective opinion and am now measuring each franchise's farm system based on the cumulative win share totals of all players that have ever appeared on a franchise's farm roster.

Of course, there are problems with this study as well, including:

• This study is based solely on win shares, which is still a dubious statistic in my mind.  I mean, I have serious doubts about any stat that tells me that Craig Biggio had a better year than Pedro Martinez last year.
• The win share numbers are obviously MLB numbers.  A better study would have included BDBL win shares, but I don't have the time to wade through Bill James's 1,000-page explanation in order to get that formula.
• Most of the players with high win share totals had already racked up a significant number of win shares when they were acquired by their team.  If the goal of this study is to find out which teams have had the greatest success in predicting the future, this study won't prove that one way or the other. It's a helluva lot easier to rack up huge win share totals when you have the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.  However, if the goal of this study is to find out which teams have gotten the most production out of their farm systems, then this method should do the trick.
• Role players that posted a handful of win shares for five years are given more weight than impact players that posted award-winning numbers for one or two seasons.  For example, Russ Branyan has more career win shares than Mark Prior.  Obviously, then, this study will become more and more relevant with each passing year.
• This study includes players that were released.  For example, Hank Blalock is included for Manchester, and Wade Miller is included for Stamford, despite the fact that both were released just months after they were acquired.  Should a franchise be rewarded by collecting win shares for players in whom they had so little faith?  I suppose a more meaningful study would take into account the number of days each player appeared on his team's roster, or the amount of compensation received by the teams in trade, but who has time for that?

That said, once you take all of the above into account, this is still a useful study, as it gives us a rough idea of how well we have done in building our farm clubs over a period of five years.

Enough set-up.  Here are the rankings (with individual win shares in parentheses):

#1 Wapakoneta Hippos - 449 win shares
Significant alumni: Albert Pujols (102), Tim Hudson (90), Christian Guzman (61), Adam Dunn (44), Ricky Ledee (37), Brian Schneider (24), Carl Crawford (19), John Lackey (15), Mike Lincoln (13)

No surprise here.  Pujols easily ranks #1 in win shares out of all the players that have originated from a BDBL farm club throughout league history.  And Hudson gives the Hippos two out of the top three.  Needless to say, that's pretty damned impressive.  The fact that Guzman has more than double the number of win shares as Mark Prior merely highlights what I said earlier about the problems with this study.

#2 Ravenswood Infidels - 439 win shares
Significant alumni: Vernon Wells (47), Joe Mays (42), Kaz Sasaki (38), Jay Gibbons (34), Mark Ellis (32), A.J. Burnett (31), Matt Herges (31), Garrett Stephenson (31), Danys Baez (26), Dustin Mohr (18), Brent Abernathy (17), Rodrigo Lopez (17), Dontrelle Willis (14), Francisco Rodriguez (10)

You may remember (though probably not) that this franchise ranked #1 in my subjective analysis last year.  What this franchise's farm alumni lacks in quality (only three borderline "all-star" players), they make up for in quantity (14 players with 10 or more win shares.)  Wells, Willis, Rodriguez, Jerome Williams (9 win shares), and Hee-Seop Choi (6) should keep this franchise at the top of the rankings next year, but they probably don't have enough to overtake the threesome of Pujols, Hudson and Dunn.

#3 Silicon Valley CyberSox - 413 win shares
Significant alumni: Barry Zito (67), Freddy Garcia (61), Brian Daubach (55), Adam Kennedy (52), Marcus Giles (42), Chris Singleton (38), Eric Hinske (34), Russ Branyan (30), Rob Bell (11)

Which is more surprising: that the CyberSox franchise ranks third on this list, or that Rob Bell has racked up 11 career win shares?  Trivia question: what do Luis Rivas, Dannys Baez and Andy Pratt all have in common?  Answer: they were all drafted ahead of Barry Zito in the 2000 farm draft.  My, how far we've all come!

#4 Stamford Zoots - 399 win shares
Significant alumni: Bung-Hole Kim (60), Juan Pierre (55), Mark Buehrle (52), Wade Miller (43), Kip Wells (40), D'Angelo Jimenez (37), Nick Johnson (25), Gil Meche (20), Aaron Rowand (18)

All three of Stamford's top three farm alumni were acquired after they had already spent some time on an MLB roster.  (Side note: it's hard to believe Pierre has more win shares than Buehrle, isn't it??)  Of the others, Johnson, Meche, Rowand and Miller were all part of Stamford's impressive inaugural farm draft (though both Miller and Rowand were released shortly thereafter.)

#5 Southern Cal Slyme - 395 win shares
Significant alumni: Jimmy Rollins (56), Randy Wolf (55), Octavio Dotel (51), Gabe Kapler (43), Michael Young (39), D'Angelo Jimenez (37), Chuck Smith (14), Kaz Ishii (12), Jose Valverde (11), Reed Johnson (11), Jake Peavy (10), Damian Rolls (10), Jason Simontacchi (10), Jason Tyner (10)

Another team with more quantity than quality, though many of these guys are solid, everyday contributors.  The Slyme have probably developed more middle infielders, per capita, than any other team in the league.

#6 Villanova Mustangs - 388 win shares
Significant alumni: Alfonso Soriano (73), David Eckstein (43), Craig Wilson (28), Tony Armas (28), Rob Mackowiak (22), Josh Phelps (20), Ty Wigginton (19), Carl Crawford (19), Cesar Izturis (19), Brandon Webb (17), Felipe Lopez (14), Ryan Rupe (12), Kerry Robinson (11), Tony Fiore (10), Rod Barajas (10)

Trivia question: what do Armando Rios and Felipe Lopez have in common?  Answer: they've both been traded for Alfonso Soriano.  The 'Nova franchise acquired Soriano in exchange for Rios, then shipped him off to Plattsburgh in exchange for Lopez just days later.  True story.  With Atkins, Byrd, Kotchman, Marte, Reed, Bruney, Wainwright, etc. on the Villanova farm club, expect this franchise to shoot up the rankings in the coming years.

#7 South Carolina Sea Cats - 354 win shares
Significant alumni: Freddy Garcia (61), Billy Koch (55), Jason LaRue (35), Warren Morris (34), Brian Lawrence (22), Josh Phelps (20), Hank Blalock (18), Kevin Mench (14), Jared Sandberg (13), Jose Reyes (12), Brady Clark (12), Oscar Villareal (11)

Yes, Warren Morris really is listed with 34 win shares.  I can't believe it, either.  Phelps, Reyes and Blalock should help the Sea Cats maintain their ranking for the next few years.

#8 Akron Ryche - 352 win shares
Significant alumni: Ramon Hernandez (60), Mark Mulder (58), Jeff Weaver (48), Jay Payton (47), Adam Dunn (44), Mark Prior (29), David Riske (15), Jason Marquis (13)

That's a lot of pitching generated from one farm system - and that doesn't even include Rich Harden (4 wins shares) or Cliff Lee (4).  As tough as it is to predict the future when it comes to young pitchers, you have to hand it to D.J. for doing so well in that regard.  Now, if he could only learn to hold onto some of that young pitching...

#9 Marlboro Hammerheads - 337 win shares
Significant alumni: Ichiro Suzuki (84), Milton Bradley (30), Orlando Hudson (25), Carlos Zambrano (23), Matt LeCroy (21), Adam Eaton (21), Joe Crede (20), Marlon Byrd (16), Alex Cintron (15), Dan Reichert (15), Casey Blake (13), Ruben Mateo (11)

Thanks to the bumbling Salem Cowtippers, who passed on Ichiro in the 2001 farm draft in favor of Adam Johnson, the Hammerheads's farm ranks ahead of the 'Tippers in this study.  Trivia question: had the Cowtippers selected Ichiro in that draft, who was #2 on Marlboro's draft list?  Answer: Mark Prior.  Maybe it's a good thing I selected Johnson after all.

#10 Salem Cowtippers - 294 win shares
Significant alumni: Alfonso Soriano (73), Jeff Zimmerman (30), Bobby Kielty (28), Austin Kearns (28), Matt LeCroy (21), Sean Burroughs (18), Aaron Rowand (18), Mark Teixeira (13)

Okay, this is embarrassing.  After all that crowing over the years, my farm club has only produced the 10th-most win shares in the league?  And 30 of those win shares came from a guy that was already a decent MLB pitcher when I acquired him.  Hopefully, Kearns, Teixeira, Soriano, Burroughs, Edwin Jackson, Rich Harden, B.J. Upton, Casey Kotchman, et al can restore some semblance of pride in this organization over the coming years.

#11 Sylmar Padawans - 259 win shares
Significant alumni: Eric Gagne (53), Jay Gibbons (34), Shea Hillenbrand (33), John Garland (28), Jason Jennings (26), Damian Moss (18), Joe Kennedy (15), Willis Roberts (13), Casey Blake (13), Denny Stark (12)

How sad that the pride of this organization's farm system was traded away as a "throw-in."  With a name like "Padawans", it is unlikely that this organization will fall for such Jedi mind tricks ever again.

#12 Litchfield Lightning - 258 win shares
Significant alumni: Lance Berkman (98), Erubiel Durazo (48), Gary Matthews (31), Doug Davis (23), Jody Gerut (14), Adam Piatt (11)

Berkman is second to only Albert Pujols in terms of career win shares for BDBL farm alumni.  (In case you're curious, Darren Dreifort's career win shares total is 37.)  Three of the five players above were acquired in the 1999 farm draft, which means the Lightning have produced only two significant players (Gerut and Piatt) from their farm system since 1999.

#13 Bear Country Jamboree - 253 win shares
Significant alumni: Carlos Lee (76), Jacque Jones (69), Kris Benson (33), Hideki Matsui (19), Tom Wilson (10)

Believe it or not, Lee, Jones and Benson are all products of the Sakolsky Era.  Which means that had it not been for Sakolsky, the Jamboree franchise would rank dead-last in this study.

#14 Cleveland Rocks - 250 win shares
Significant alumni: Ramon Ortiz (38), Milton Bradley (30), Tyoshi Shinjo (21), Joe Crede (20), Brendon Donnelly (18), Brandon Webb (17), Rick Ankiel (17), Jeremy Affeldt (17), Danny Kolb (14), Carlos Silva (12)

For a franchise that populates their farm system almost entirely with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, this ranking surprises me.  You would think that already knowing how a farm player will perform before he ever takes the (BDBL) field would be a huge advantage, but apparently not.

#15 Kansas Law Dogs - 225 win shares
Significant alumni: Shea Hillenbrand (33), Mike Lamb (21), Carl Crawford (19), Angel Berroa (18), Jeremy Affeldt (17), Rick Ankiel (17), Corey Bailey (16), Rob Bell (11), Mike MacDougal (10)

Lots and lots of KC Royals on the Kansas farm club over the years, but only two have racked up more than 10 win shares so far.  It's amazing that the Law Dogs have won more games than any other Eck League franchise in league history despite having such a weak farm system.

#16 New Milford Blazers - 219 win shares
Significant alumni: David Eckstein (43), C.C. Sabathia (38), Brad Penny (31), Austin Kearns (28), Corey Patterson (24), Luis Rivas (21), Sean Burroughs (18)

The Blazers are the mirror-image of the Law Dogs.  Despite losing more games than any other franchise in league history, New Milford has had a pretty good farm system.  Of the seven significant alumni listed above, only one (Rivas) was drafted by the Blazers.  The rest were acquired via countless mid-season firesales.

#17 Los Altos Undertakers - 218 win shares
Significant alumni: Scott Williamson (45), Austin Kearns (28), Juan Uribe (26), Ryan Franklin (25), Ben Sheets (23), Carlos Pena (23), Brett Myers (12), Josh Paul (10)

It's somewhat shocking to see how low the Undertakers rank in this study, given how incredibly strong their current farm system is.  The Los Altos farm did a 180-degree turnaround when they made the decision to concentrate almost entirely upon college (and yes, high school) players.  Of course, because many of those players are still in college or high school, the Undertakers won't do very well in our annual BDBL Farm Report, either.  But give them a few years, and they'll be sitting pretty.

#18 Allentown Ridgebacks - 210 win shares
Significant alumni: Roy Oswalt (45), Kip Wells (40), Brad Wilkerson (36), Joe Nathan (19), Brandon Inge (13), Kaz Ishii (12), Peter Bergeron (12)

Of the seven significant farm products this franchise has produced over the past five years, only one (Bergeron) was acquired by the Steve Spoulos administration.  No wonder he quit the league because we expanded the farm to ten.

#19 Atlanta Fire Ants - 192 win shares
Significant alumni: Adam Kennedy (52), Alex Gonzalez (48), Matt Clement (37), Ted Lilly (19), Ben Petrick (11), Casey Fossum (11)

Atlanta farm club history is littered with some of the biggest big-name busts of recent history, including Xavier Nady, Nick Neugebauer, Petrick, Keith Reed, Wily Mo Pena, Jake Gautreau, Ben Diggins and Ryan Christianson.  For Gene's sake, let's hope the next generation of Atlanta talent (Guillermo Quiroz, Delwyn Young, Jason Arnold, Bryan Bullington, Brandon Claussen, etc.) fares much, much better.

#20 Chicago Black Sox - 186 win shares
Significant alumni: Aubrey Huff (41), Mark Prior (29), Josh Beckett (19), Rick Ankiel (17), Jason Marquis (13), Ruben Mateo (11), Francisco Rodriguez (10), Donnie Sadler (10)

Remember when the Black Sox farm club included Ankiel, Mateo, Eric Munson, Josh Hamilton and Drew Henson, and we all thought it was the most fearsome farm club in the league?  With Jeremy Bonderman, Bobby Crosby, Prince Fielder, Khalil Greene, Chris Burke, J.J. Hardy, Victor Martinez and Jeff Mathis on the current Black Sox roster, let's hope for a repeat of history or we're all in trouble.

#21 Gillette Swamp Rats - 177 win shares
Significant alumni: Rafael Furcal (71), Guillermo Mota (24), Hideki Matsui (19), Chris Reitsma (18), Tom Wilson (10), Nelson Figueroa (10), Toe Nash (0)

Gillette farm club history is littered with C-grade pitching prospects that never quite panned out (Eric Bedard, Nate Bump, Vinny Chulk, Joe Dawley, Adrian Hernandez, Ben Norris, Luke Prokopec, Steve Rain, Mario Ramos, David Walling, etc., etc..)  Both Furcal and Mota were products of the inaugural draft.   Matsui was acquired in trade (in exchange for the immortal John Burkett.)

#22 Great Lakes Sphinx - 164 win shares
Significant alumni: Alfonso Soriano (73), Pat Burrell (63), Mark Teixeira (13)

That's it.  Just three farm players in the history of the Sphinx franchise have racked up more than 10 win shares in their entire careers.   And all three players were drafted by the team's original owner, Tim Zigmund, way back in 1999.  In case you're wondering why those three players are no longer with the Sphinx, they were traded for Kenny Rogers, Derrek Lee, Jay Canizaro and Wes Anderson.

#23 Nashville Funkadelic - 155 win shares
Significant alumni: C.C. Sabathia (38), Toby Hall (23), Marlon Byrd (16), Brian Fuentes (13), Tim Redding (13), Casey Blake (13), Kaz Ishii (12)

Looking at the players on that list above, it's hard to believe their win shares add up to 155.  Sabathia is a nice #3 starter, and Byrd has potential to be an above-average center fielder, but other than that, there's not much here worth getting excited about.

#24 Manchester Irish Rebels - 84 win shares
Significant alumni: Corey Patterson (24), Hank Blalock (18), Miguel Cabrera (12), Josh Towers (11)

Last, and least, we come to the Irish Rebels.  This is just sad.  84 win shares over five years??  That is hard to fathom.  And 18 of those win shares come from a guy the Irish Rebels released four chapters after he was acquired in order to make room for...Ramon Castro.  Hopefully, Cabrera and Manchester's current bevy of first-round pitchers can bring some semblance of pride to this organization over the next few years.