From the Desk of the Commish

O F F I C I A L S I T E O F T H E B I G D A D D Y B A S E B A L L L E A G U E

Commish

May 28, 2004

An Early Peek Toward 2005

We're now about 30-percent of the way into the 2004 Major League season, so it seems like a safe time to look ahead at the 2005 BDBL season using current MLB numbers. Of course, we can't even begin to do such a thing until we all raise our right hands and utter those three words we all know well. So say it with me: "It's still early." After all, at this time last year, Eric Byrnes was sporting an OPS of 973, Jose Lima owned a 2.17 ERA and Miguel Cabrera had yet to take a Major League swing. So, for the moment, let's pretend the season were ending tomorrow and join me on a Shark-like adventure through the stat pages.

Francisco Rodriguez is looking like Eric Gagne, Part Two: 25+ IP, 18 H, 6 BB, 38 K, 0.70 ERA, with 460/494 splits. Combined with John Smoltz (20+ IP, 19 H, 0 BB, 22 K, 2.66 ERA, 829/532 splits), the Padawans have a good foundation for building an Undertakers-like bullpen next year. (Good thing, too, because that Padawans offense is looking a lot like the Undertakers, too!)
Speaking of bullpens, check out this threesome from the Fire Ants:

Kevin Gregg: 31 IP, 21 H, 1 HR, 9 BB, 30 K, 1.16 ERA, 426/646 splits
Tommy Phelps: 22 IP, 17 H, 0 HR, 6 BB, 18 K, 2.05 ERA, 726/504 splits
Latroy Hawkins: 24+ IP, 13 H, 2 HR, 5 BB, 22 K, 1.09 ERA, 511/395 splits

Amazingly enough, none of the three was acquired with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Gregg was a 30th round pick in this year's draft, Phelps was acquired this winter as part of the Luis Castillo trade and Hawkins was purchased for $6 million in this year's auction.
Last year, you may remember the Lightning turned down a trade for Bartolo Colon that would have netted them B.J. Upton in return (I know I'll never forget!) How is Colon doing this year?

Colon: 60+ IP, 66 H, 13 HR, 20 BB, 48 K, 5.19 ERA.

Those 13 homers allowed project to 45 over a full season. On the bright side, 2005 is Colon's walk year, so the Lightning can pay $5 million to get rid of him if he continues to pitch this poorly.
Remember last winter's comparisons between Miguel Tejada and Michael Young? Here's how they look so far this year:

Tejada: .312/.362/.474, 978/794 splits
Young: .348/.382/.557, 1115/847 splits
Remember when the Lightning made the decision to spend $12 million on Jim Edmonds instead of Manny Ramirez? (I know I'll never forget!) Here's an update:

Ramirez: .349/.442/.634, 1280/993 splits
Jim Edmonds: .268/.363/.567, 794/967 splits

Next year, Edmonds will actually be more expensive than Ramirez. If the Cowtippers are the Red Sox of the BDBL, the Lightning are without a doubt the Milwaukee Brewers of the BDBL (but without the great farm system.)
Speaking of that infamous trade, here's a Sean Casey update:

Sean Casey: .379/.423/.588, 883/1068 splits
I bet you thought Bobby Sylvester was crazy for giving Juan Uribe a long-term contract after he'd posted a 706 career OPS in Coors Field. Well, he's crazy all right...crazy like a fox!

Uribe: .348/.398/.563, 927/975 splits

Uribe is currently ranked as the top second baseman in the game by Baseball Prospectus -- just ahead of Ron Belliard. Yep, it's still early.
The Silicon Valley CyberSox traded Casey Kotchman for Carlos Lee, then awarded Lee with a huge three-year, $19.5 million contract. How's that investment looking so far?

Lee: .284/.363/.420, 895/753 splits

Not bad, but worth $6.5 million and Casey Kotchman?
The fourth-best catcher in the game right now (according to BBP) is Chicago's Victor Martinez: .286/.363/.537, with 677/1006 splits. As if the Black Sox aren't well enough stacked behind the plate with Jason Kendall (.315/.385/.357), Jeff Mathis (.295/.373/.497 at AA) and J.R. House (.315/.361/.676 at AAA.)

Not only are the Black Sox stacked at catcher, but they also have Nomar Garciaparra, Bobby Crosby, Khalil Greene and J.J. Hardy at shortstop!
The one financial decision the Lightning front office made this winter that actually looks good right now is giving Rondell White a two-year deal. White is hitting .327/.396/.550, with 1202/849 splits, and is looking like the '04 version of Jose Guillen. At $1.5 million, he would be a nice player to have if he can maintain this pace.
One Litchfield decision that is not looking so good, of course, is the 2001 trade that sent Wade Miller and Erubiel Durazo to the Ridgebacks in exchange for Derek Jeter. Jeter is hitting just .211/.273/.317, with 657/565 splits, and is currently ranked as the 37th-best shortstop in baseball by BBP. The Lightning are committed to Jeter through the 2009 season, at $10 million per.
Last year, the Jamboree acquired Ken Harvey from the Undertakers in exchange for Jamie Moyer. How's that trade working out for Matt?

Harvey: .340/.384/.503, 833/914 splits

Harvey, you may remember, was traded to the Undertakers in 2002, along with Rafael Soriano, in exchange for David Weathers and '02 World Series hero Mike Magnante.
Remember the old Angel Berroa vs. Mark Ellis debate? Well, Ellis is out for the entire season with a bum shoulder, but he's still not doing much worse than Berroa:

Berroa: .227/.254/.341, 507/642 splits
I would be remiss if I didn't include the obligatory Lew Ford update. Here goes:

Ford: .342/.403/.503, 840/944

Not only is Ford having a great year, but he will be just $100k, and he qualifies at all three outfield positions. That should make up for losing a year of eligibility in '04, right?
Another Funkadelic having a quietly great season is Joe Nathan:

Nathan: 22+ IP, 13 H, 1 HR, 12 BB, 28 K, 1.19 ERA, 725/282 splits

Yep, he's holding righties to a 282 OPS so far. And best of all, he's already reached the minimum number of innings to qualify for 2005!
It's been a tough year for the Ravenswood pitching staff so far:

Johan Santana: 54+ IP, 66 H, 10 HR, 17 BB, 48 K, 5.60 ERA, 815/848 splits
Casey Fossum: 14+ IP, 19 H, 4 HR, 7 BB, 10 K, 7.53 ERA, 1780/762 splits
Jae Wong Seo: 35+ IP, 40 H, 5 HR, 14 BB, 13 K, 5.30 ERA, 677/994 splits
Garrett Stephenson: out for the season
Dontrelle Willis: 49+ IP, 59 H, 6 HR, 21 BB, 31 K, 4.38 ERA, 658/815 splits
Then, on the flip side, of course, there is the Marlboro starting staff:

Roger Clemens: 57+ IP, 40 H, 4 HR, 23 BB, 70 K, 2.51 ERA, 506/622 splits
C.C. Sabathia: 62+ IP, 55 H, 7 HR, 21 BB, 35 K, 2.89 ERA, 937/667 splits
Carlos Zambrano: 61+ IP, 46 H, 4 HR, 17 BB, 55 K, 2.49 ERA, 702/480 splits
Matt Morris: 70+ IP, 60 H, 15 HR, 17 BB, 33 K, 3.84 ERA, 805/663 splits
Wilson Alvarez: 41+ IP, 35 H, 7 HR, 7 BB, 37 K, 3.27 ERA, 647/668 splits

The combined 2005 salary of the entire rotation is $17.7 million -- or $2.7 million more than Cleveland will be paying Javier Vazquez alone.
Remember who the Jamboree gave up in 2002 to acquire John Burkett? Let me jog your memory:

Hideki Matsui: .313/.429/.521, 805/1045 splits
Willie Harris: .308/.366/.362, 170/809 splits

Matsui and Harris will be playing at a combined salary of $1.6m next year. Burkett is currently attempting to join the professional bowler's tournament.
Checking in on some of the players drafted in the second round of last winter's draft:

#1 Matt Clement: 60+ IP, 41 H, 4 HR, 23 BB, 59 K, 2.69 ERA, 574/556 splits
#2 Derek Lowe: 46+ IP, 66 H, 2 HR, 21 BB, 21 K, 6.22 ERA, 923/791 splits
#3 Jay Payton: .291/.377/.433, 1104/706 splits
#4 Mike Piazza: .317/.413/.565, 1440/876 splits
#6 Gil Meche: 41+ IP, 52 H, 6 HR, 25 BB, 37 K, 6.97 ERA, 1008/832 splits
#7 Jon Garland: 61+ IP, 64 H, 6 HR, 22 BB, 33 K, 4.09 ERA, 745/684 splits
#8 Brian Anderson: 58+ IP, 97 H, 13 HR, 19 BB, 22 K, 7.82 ERA, 907/1084 splits
#9 Joe Borowski: 18 IP, 19 H, 2 HR, 14 BB, 15 K, 6.00 ERA, 994/676 splits
#10 Doug Mientkiewicz: .267/.316/.370, 758/643 splits
#11 Kevin Millar: .264/.344/.356, 858/633 splits
#12 Troy Glaus: .296/.387/.694, 1033/1107 splits (out for the season)
#13 Eddie Guardado: 22 IP, 10 H, 2 HR, 4 BB, 23 K, 1.23 ERA, 232/522 splits
#14 Preston Wilson: .278/.350/.389, 804/697 splits (out 4-6 weeks)
#15 Bernie Williams: .234/.333/.357, 688/690 splits
Is there any contract in the BDBL (or MLB for that matter) uglier than Mike Hampton's?

Hampton: 52+ IP, 74 H, 6 HR, 20 BB, 29 K, 5.64 ERA, 641/894 splits

The Blazers are committed to Hampton for $30 million over the next three years (or $25 million over the next three, assuming they'll take the penalty in '07) and they haven't received one decent season from him since they acquired him. In the discussion over the worst trade in BDBL history, the Hampton trade is somehow forgotten, even though it should rank right up there. In 2002, New Milford not only took Hampton off Atlanta's hands without asking for any salary relief in return, but they also traded Doug Mientkiewicz for the trouble. As a result, the Blazers will be playing with a $54.5 million salary cap for the next several years.
With C.C. Sabathia gone, and Mike Mussina having an awful year (68+ IP, 88 H, 7 HR, 18 BB, 41 K, 5.00 ERA, 864/756 splits), the immortal Horacio Ramirez just might be New Milford's ace next season:

Ramirez: 59+ IP, 49 H, 7 HR, 29 BB, 31 K, 2.28 ERA, 704/672 splits

Ramirez, of course, was acquired last year along with Zach Day in exchange for Kevin Millwood, Randy Winn and Wil Cordero. You may remember that the Blazers rejected an offer of B.J. Upton and Brandon Lyon for Millwood, but what I had forgotten (until I was reading through some old threads) was that the Blazers actually had a choice between Upton and Edwin Jackson. It's hard to say who I would have chosen if I were in their shoes last year, but suffice it to say that of the three (Upton, Jackson and Ramirez), Ramirez would come in a distant third.
Bargain of the '04 draft candidates:

Jermaine Dye ($500k): .277/.342/.508, 836/857
Danny Graves ($100k): 27 IP, 28 H, 7 HR, 4 BB, 19 K, 3.00 ERA, 589/959
Scott Hatteberg ($100k): .312/.399/.486, 925/870
Kevin Gregg ($100k): 31 IP, 21 H, 1 HR, 9 BB, 30 K, 1.16 ERA, 426/646
Jaret Wright ($100k): 49+ IP, 52 H, 2 HR, 27 BB, 38 K, 3.81 ERA, 900/532
Aaron Sele ($100k): 38+ IP, 38 H, 2 HR, 14 BB, 19 K, 3.05 ERA, 651/671
Jack Wilson ($100k): .354/.374/.543, 669/979
Mark Bellhorn ($500k): .241/.386/.416, 671/871
David Dellucci ($100k): .319/.394/.553, 539/1002
Jose Mesa ($100k): 20+ IP, 15 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 13 K, 0.89 ERA, 758/341
Nate Field ($100k): 18 IP, 16 H, 2 HR, 6 BB, 16 K, 3.50 ERA, 495/774
Danny Bautista ($500k): .326/.376/.509, 688/956
And then there's Brooks Kieschnick, who is literally breaking all the rules.

On the mound: 22+ IP, 18 H, 2 HR, 8 BB, 14 K, 1.59 ERA, 474/802
At the plate: 23 AB, .304/.385/.522

Figuring out where and how Kieschnick qualifies to play in the BDBL, and for how many IP's or AB's, is going to be a major hassle. But if he keeps playing like this, he'll be the biggest $100k bargain in league history.
Revisiting the big Brandon Webb/Rich Harden trade from last winter:

Webb: 60+ IP, 52 H, 5 HR, 33 BB, 43 K, 3.73 ERA, 763/657
Harden: 49+ IP, 53 H, 4 HR, 21 BB, 48 K, 3.83 ERA, 712/804
Silicon Valley's trade of Jarrod Washburn didn't get much play, but let's give some respect where respect is due. Here are the players the CyberSox acquired in that deal:

Layce Nix: .321/.360/.642, 709/1090
Chris Reitsma: 26 IP, 26 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 15 K, 2.42 ERA, 736/584

Not a bad haul for Jarrod Washburn! So, if you're keeping score at home, the Jamboree have now traded Nix, Reitsma, Hideki Matsui and Willie Harris for Jarrod Washburn and John Burkett. Yech.
That noise you hear is Brian Potrafka biting his fingernails over his $11 million investment:

Carlos Delgado: .228/.340/.404, 627/833
Last year, the Blazers traded Shiggy Hasegawa and Mark Guthrie to the Zoots for Wes Whisler, Kevin Cash and Justin Speier. How's that working out for them?

Whisler: .281/.365/.422 for UCLA
Cash: .223/.279/.348, 739/534 splits
Speier: in his walk year

You'd think that after the Rosado trade, Billy would've learned his lesson...
How about that '05 Ridgebacks rotation?

Jake Peavy: 53+ IP, 54 H, 2 HR, 19 BB, 53 K, 2.01 ERA, 705/668
Randy Johnson: 70 IP, 38 H, 6 HR, 17 BB, 86 K, 2.44 ERA, 427/540
Roy Oswalt: 69+ IP, 63 H, 4 HR, 18 BB, 57 K, 3.36 ERA, 701/587
Mark Mulder: 72 IP, 58 H, 6 HR, 22 BB, 48 K, 3.00 ERA, 582/630

With a rotation like that, and an extra $16.5 million to spend in the draft once Barry Bonds is released, we should just pencil in the R-Backs for a 2005 trophy right now. (And yes, that is an official Kreskin Glander� prediction.)
This past winter, I offered to take Ken Griffey's contract off of Villanova's hands, but was told that Griffey's contract wasn't much of a concern. Is Griffey living up to the confidence that Tony Chamra had in him?

Griffey: .241/.340/.512, 604/986

Overall, not bad, though he's an expensive $10m platoon player at this point. (Maybe Tony should give Geisel a call...)
Akron keeps trading away pitching, yet some how, some way, he keeps coming up with more:

Pedro Martinez: 63+ IP, 57 H, 7 HR, 18 BB, 63 K, 3.68 ERA, 685/685
Paul Wilson: 64+ IP, 68 H, 8 HR, 15 BB, 35 K, 3.34 ERA, 858/680
Oliver Perez: 45+ IP, 37 H, 4 HR, 12 BB, 49 K, 2.96 ERA, 606/599
Jeff Weaver: 63+ IP, 66 H, 5 HR, 22 BB, 58 K, 4.38 ERA, 921/568

Not exactly Pedro, Mulder, Hudson and Prior (which would be Akron's '05 rotation had they stood pat), but it could be worse.
Remember Rene Reyes, who was traded for Scott Williamson earlier this year?

Reyes: 47 AB, .149/.231/.191, 450/414 splits
Before the season, the Black Sox traded away two-thirds of their three-headed ace monster in Carlos Zambrano and Josh Beckett. Their numbers so far:

Zambrano: 61+ IP, 46 H, 4 HR, 17 BB, 55 K, 2.49 ERA, 702/480
Beckett: 66 IP, 55 H, 7 HR, 20 BB, 67 K, 3.95 ERA, 775/556

In exchange, they got a couple of pitchers in return:

Ben Sheets: 73 IP, 58 H, 7 HR, 11 BB, 77 K, 2.71 ERA, 595/630
Brett Myers: 48 IP, 59 H, 5 HR, 15 BB, 32 K, 4.31 ERA, 671/843

So far, not so bad. Sheets compares somewhat favorably to Zambrano, and Myers compares a little less favorably to Beckett. And the difference in salary is just is just $500k.

Of course, there were some other players involved, too. Chicago also sacrificed David Weathers, Bobby Hill, Dmitri Young and Jason Stokes. And in return, they got Jeff Mathis, Bobby Crosby, Vernon Wells and J.J. Hardy. All in all, when you look at it this way, those trades look pretty good for Chicago. Of course, that assumes that Sheets and Myers will continue to pitch as well as Zambrano and Beckett going forward.
The Hippos placed a $7 million wager on Shawn Green enjoying a comeback year this season. So far, here's where that bet stands:

Green: .215/.319/.405, 594/775 splits

Ouch.
On the plus side, the Hippos also wagered $5 million this winter that Kazuo Matsui would prove to be worth that pricetag. Here's how that bet looks at the moment:

Kazuo: .257/.341/.426, 1151/682 splits

Baseball Prospectus ranks Kazuo as the sixth-best shortstop in baseball. That makes him well worth the $5 million wager, and his $100k salary next year will make him among the biggest bargains in the BDBL next season.
This winter, the Bear Country Jamboree were saddled with Greg Maddux's $15.5 million salary. Next winter, they'll be saddled with Hideo Nomo's $9.5m salary:

Nomo: 41+ IP, 50 H, 12 HR, 17 BB, 20 K, 7.13 ERA, 818/1035 splits
Two years ago, the Los Altos Undertakers made a trade one chapter into the season in which they dealt Scott Brosius for Lyle Overbay. How's that working out for them?

Overbay: .347/.402/.580, 935/991 splits at $500k in salary
Last winter, the Mustangs were asking me for an arm, a leg and a first-born child in exchange for Jason Phillips. They then turned around and traded Phillips to the Hammerheads (along with Matt Mantei) for Marlon Byrd. How's that working out for both teams?

Phillips: .211/.303/.331, 745/607 splits
Byrd: .230/.314/.321, 729/615 splits
The Mustangs also made a $9.5 million investment in Kevin Millwood last winter:

Millwood: 60+ IP, 71 H, 7 HR, 22 BB, 47 K, 4.90 ERA, 952/696
How about Nashville's $9 million investment in Kip Wells?

Wells: 58 IP, 59 H, 6 HR, 29 BB, 53 K, 4.03 ERA, 792/740 splits

When it comes to taking gambles, spending more than $7 million for a pitcher in the auction is riskier than playing Russian Roulette.
Josh Fogg update:

Fogg: 45+ IP, 52 H, 9 HR, 20 BB, 28 K, 6.90 ERA, 870/850 splits

Fogg, of course, was traded straight-up for Jeff Kent last year. And the year before that, he was traded for both Tom Gordon and Mike Venafro. If a lesser-talented player has ever fetched more talent in return in this league, his name must be "Dempster."
In my Annual BDBL Farm Report, I stated that Akinori Otsuka would be a more valuable player in 2004 than Kazuo Matsui. How's that prediction looking?

Otsuka: 10.9 VORP
Kazuo: 11.9 VORP

A close race so far. Otsuka's numbers on the season: 24.1 IP, 12 H, 0 HR, 8 BB, 26 K, 1.48 ERA, 560/300 splits.
An update on the man who may fetch $20 million in the auction:

Barry Bonds: .364/.616/.828, 65 BB, 10 K, 1091/1642 splits.

The only question is which team will pay for Bonds, then trade him to Allentown?