August 12,
2004
Checking the Boards
Last year at
this time, I wrote an article where I took a look back at some of the things written on
the BDBL message board over the past year and revisited those quotes. I had so much
fun doing it, I decided to do it again this year.
"At this point, my prediction that Hensley Ramirez will never
sniff the Major Leagues is looking better and better by the day. He's the typical
all-hype/no-substance Latin shortstop that gets compared to A-Rod after posting decent
numbers in a very small sample size at a very low level of play."
-- Mike Glander, 8/21/03
It's been a while since we've checked in on that guy that
was traded for Roy Halladay a couple of winters ago. How's he faring these
days? Well, the good news is that he's hitting .310. The bad news is that only
13 of his 74 hits (17%) have been for extra bases, he's walked just 17 times and he's
struck out 39 times. He's also been caught stealing 7 times in 19 attempts, and has
17 errors in 62 games. My prediction stands.
"Don’t get me wrong, I like my team. But when you look at
the numbers and then look at how bad some of my guys have performed (maybe Billy is right!
Damn DMB!), I’d put my money on Akron."
-- Tom DiStefano, 8/28/03
Classic Tom, trying to paint himself as a underdog.
Tsk, tsk.
"The Eck League playoffs will be better than I imagined at the
beginning of the season, but I still give the edge to Allentown."
-- Mike Glander, 8/28/03
Thankfully, Kreskin Glander was able to step in and clear
things up.
"The 2007 Cowtippers:
C: Jeff Clement/Jeremy Brown
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Alberto Callaspo
3B: Sean Burroughs
SS: Kazuo Matsui/B.J. Upton
LF: Lance Berkman
CF: Jeremy Reed/Chris Snelling
RF: Austin Kearns
P: Rich Harden, Edwin Jackson, Joel Hanrahan, Cliff Lee
Plus, about $45 million to spend on free agents.
Just be thankful you're no longer in my division, Sharky."
-- Mike Glander, 9/27/03
"Come on Mike....if you still have ALL those guys on your roster
in 2007 I will be surprised. I bet you trade 50% of them away before the 2007
season."
-- Gene Patterson, 9/27/03
2007?? Hell, I couldn't even make it 12 months
before I'd traded six of the fifteen players listed above, and released one other!
Good call, Gene!
"Well I admit he's no Miguel Olivo...(remember the pre-season
crap about Olivo being more valuable than Adam Eaton?)"
-- Tom DiStefano, 9/29/03
While Eaton was certainly more valuable than Olivo in
2003, what about 2004? So far, Olivo's VORP (8.4) is 2.1 runs higher than Eaton's
(6.3). Guess I was a year off.
Of course, I was also a year off on Hideki Matsui as
well:
"My guess (for Matsui): .280/.380/.515, 38
HR, 115 RBI"
-- Mike Glander, 3/5/03
Matsui's numbers so far this year: .303/.392/.527.
"Do you think Pudge WON'T resign with Marlins? I
don't think they have a choice now regardless how far they advance. The fans will
absolutely abandon them if they don't bring him back now. He singlehandedly WON that
series for them."
-- Sharky, 10/4/03
2003 Marlins average attendance: 16,290.
2004 Marlins average attendance: 21,943.
"I feel Tom would be best served by batting Bonds #2 in the
lineup, ahead of Ramirez and Walker."
-- Mike Glander, 11/20/03
"Barry Bonds batting second? No way. That would
bring him up too many times with nobody on base. I'm a firm believer in DIRECTING strategy
as opposed to REACTING to strategy. Batting Bonds second now goes against everything I've
done all year long. I can see the merit in pitching around him but that's why I have Manny
Ramirez behind him. Given enough chances, I'm hoping Manny will get it done."
-- Tom DiStefano, 11/20/03
Manny's stats for the World Series: 3-for-26, with 0
RBI's.
"A 4-game sweep cannot constitute the 'greatest
series ever' under any circumstances. If BDBL history has taught us nothing else, it is
that the best pitching staff wins the World Series. 4 straight times and counting. This
staff match-up (between Stamford and Allentown) is just not close. Thanks for the support
(or false support in some instances), but this is Sisyphus pushing the boulder up the
mountain. He never gets there."
-- Paul Marazita, 11/21/03
Of course, if Sisyphus had used Clay Condrey to help him
roll that boulder up the mountain, he'd have been able to take the rest of the afternoon
off.
"I know, I know...people will say it's the same
old story, but I would like for someone to explain to me how you beat Schilling/Oswalt/
Johnson with Lowe/Millwood/Buehrle in a short series. How are my guys -- all decent, but
not super superstars going to get out the middle of his lineup (Bonds/Ramirez/Walker)?
Can anyone do that without mentioning meaningless regular season records or 'baseball
gods.'
I am being totally serious here. Let me hear it. I am open for advice.
Seriously, tell me how you beat this team oh wise one. His staff is BETTER than last year
and he has Bonds/Ramirez/Walker in the middle of his lineup.
Honestly, instead of poking fun, explain how you would do it. Enlighten me."
-- Paul Marazita, 11/21/03
"The Zoots set an all-time record for wins, and
you're painting them to be underdogs. It's laughable. Just give it up. No one's buying it.
If you're trying to drum up some sympathy for the Zoots, you need to look somewhere else.
Zoots in seven. Bank on it."
-- Mike Glander, 11/21/03
"Again, that is some tremendous substance. I am
overwhelmed."
-- Paul Marazita, 11/21/03
God, I miss him.
"With Zito, Wood and Webb...Cowtippers
should be the front runner in most walks given up by one team..."
-- Jeff Paulson, 11/25/03
Update: The Cowtippers pitching staff has averaged 3.14
walks per nine. The Undertakers pitching staff has averaged 3.15 walks per nine.
(Na na na na na!)
"Personally, I wouldn't give (Andy
Pettitte) more than a three year deal, as there are plenty of red flags in his record. If
Houston does win the bidding war, they'll wish they hadn't."
-- Mike Glander, 11/26/03
If only the Astros had consulted me.
"'We hated to see (Jason) Phillips leave
because of the good numbers he posted last season, but we just don't feel he'll be part of
our future plans and acquiring a young proven talent like Marlon (Byrd) is key to our
rebuilding project', said Mustangs' GM Buddy Biancalana."
-- Tony Chamra, 11/27/03
Marlon Byrd: .230/.293/.310, and currently floating
around in Triple-A. I think it's time to fire Buddy Biancalana, Tony!
"I wonder how (Brandon Webb) will do in
the platoon happy BDBL. This has to affect his overall performance based on the fact he
will be facing many more LHs than in real life. Mike did you notice this HUGE differential
and how underinflated his real life numbers may be?"
-- Sharky, 12/4/03
Brandon's ability to overcome this handicap has been one
of the biggest feel-good stories of the 2004 season.
"I have been predicting since the summer
that George Bush will win by the largest margin since Reagan over Mondale. Anyone
want The Field (+450 electoral votes) vs. George Bush in 2004?"
-- Mike Stein, 12/14/03
Is that wager still available, Mike?
"I'm still completely dumbfounded that it
took so little to get Mark Mulder. Am I missing something? Are Jenkins, Spivey and/or
Peralta that good? And to get two guys 'thrown-in' on top of it?? This one rivals the
Schilling trade."
-- Mike Glander, 12/15/03
In retrospect, it's hard to tell which trade (this one or
the Schilling trade) was more lopsided. One thing, though, is now 100% certain: BOTH
trades were heavily lopsided in favor of the Ridgebacks. Allentown basically got
Mark Mulder, Randy Johnson and Eric Gagne for a great big ol' pile o' dog crap.
"I really haven't looked at any other
teams in the league, but I'd say Marlboro is a heavy favorite at this point."
-- Mike Glander, 12/17/03
Of course, when you go 12-0 against the heavy favorite,
that tends to change things a bit.
"I think Southern Cal is the favorite in
the Eck league right now."
-- Tom DiStefano, 12/17/03
That's looking like a pretty safe bet.
"I was reading an article today about the
new Padres stadium...Petco field. (I believe the rulebook states I have first dibs on this
ballpark next season). Anyway...here is what I read...
'Cozy Petco Park, with its prevailing winds and 396-foot centerfield, promises to be a
dream come true for Giles, Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin.'
Say what? 396 feet to center. I won't make any sort of decisions about my ball park until
late next year. But I might be playing a whole different style of baseball after this
season. We shall see...."
-- Jeff Paulson, 12/16/03
No worries, Jeff! I wonder what Klesko and Giles
think of "Cozy Petco Park" now!
"I think the chances of Beckett becoming
a non-productive #4 starter with a 4.50 ERA are very, very slim."
-- Mike Glander, 12/18/03
Beckett's current ERA: 4.54.
"Estrada, Johnny/Release, very surprised,
especially that he may be headed towards a full-time role with Atl."
-- Sharky, 12/19/03
Wow -- I had completely forgotten that Manchester
released Johnny Estrada on Cutdown Day. For just $1.1m, they could have had a
full-time catcher with .327/.382/.478 numbers. Worst Cutdown Day decision ever?
"So I was just looking around for a
couple things online and I found this website... WOW.. where did this idea and NAME come
from???"
-- Beth Reuschel, 12/29/03
Contender for Post of the Year.
"Has any team ever had 4 starting
pitchers better than the 2004 Cowfloppers?"
-- Tom DiStefano, 1/7/04
At this point, the Cowtippers don't even have the best
pitching rotation in the Ozzie League -- never mind BDBL history. Salem's 4.14 team
ERA ranks fourth in the OL and eighth in the BDBL.
"My prediction is that Mike keeps Zito,
Schilling and Webb, trades Wood for a one-year SP perfect for the playoffs , a one-year
stud hitter and some very good farm players... Wood will be traded by Chapter 4, you heard
it here first."
-- Sharky, 1/7/04
Kreskin Sharky??
"I think (Brett Clevlen) is going to be a
top-20 prospect at this time next year. Maybe a top-10 the year after that."
-- Mike Glander, 2/11/04
Brent Clevlen update: .212/.290/.325 in 345 A-ball
at-bats. Boy is my face red!
"Whomever voted for Los Altos (for best
team in the OL) must not realize that I have no offense at all...and you can't win when
you don't score."
-- Jeff Paulson, 2/20/04
...said the man with the best record in the BDBL.
"It's amazing to me how you guys think
(the A-Rod trade to the Yankees) is a good thing. This is not a good thing for baseball.
As a Yankee fan, I don't see how this helps the team."
-- Billy Baseball, 2/15/04
Update: MLB attendance is up 8.6% this season, and the
Yankees are 10.5 games ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East.
"I'm shocked the opinions on (David)
Wright and (Blake) Hawksworth are so low. I guarantee both will make the top 20 in next
year's Prospects Survivor (if they still qualify.)"
-- Mike Glander, 3/5/04
Well, we certainly screwed up our ranking by listing
Wright at #44 (Note: it wasn't my fault!) But Hawksworth at #45? Maybe we had
him ranked too high!
"I just don't see (Guillermo) Quiroz as
being anything special. He really came out of nowhere with the power-hitting last year
(18.5 AB/HR last year, 35.9 AB/HR in his career prior to last year), so I'm not convinced
it's legit...He also doesn't walk nearly enough for my taste, and his .237 career minor
league batting average tells me he probably won't hit for average, either."
-- Mike Glander, 3/6/04
Quiroz's current Triple-A stats: .221/.315/.405, with
just 7 HR in 190 AB.
"I am ashamed to be a member of any
league where Andy Marte and Dallas McPherson are deemed unworthy of the top 25. I'm at a
loss to explain this. This list is going to look very bad a year from now."
-- Mike Glander, 3/12/04
I think it's safe to say now that both players should
have been included in the top 25.
"It's been
frustrating to see Bear Country on top despite (being) 22 runs down (on the
competition.) It's going to be a good, tight race all year."
-- Jeff Paulson, 4/12/04
The Undertakers' lead in that "tight" Griffin
Division "race" is now 22 games!
"I was going to post
this a few days ago. Melvin Mora, in 15 games at 3rd base has already committed 7 errors.
His fielding % for the season is .837!"
-- Jeff Paulson, 4/23/04
Update: Mora's fielding percentage is now a much more
reasonable .934 on the season (17 errors in 87 games.) AND he continues to do
nothing but hit! (.350/.438/.598!) Where did this guy come from?!?
"I can tell you that I will not win the OL
wild card this year. I don't plan on going 15-13 every chapter."
-- Mike Glander, 4/28/04
Thankfully, that was one Kreskin Glander prediction that
came true.
"Don't get too excited about LoDuca. He's
a classic first-half hitter. Last year, he hit .307/.374/.438 before the break, and
.226/.282/.293 after. The year before that, he posted an 842 OPS before the break and 609
after. And over the past three years combined, he's posted an 869 OPS before the break and
680 after. If I were you, I'd wait until July, then trade him to Sharky."
-- Mike Glander, 5/1/04
Paul LoDuca update: .313/.355/.461 (95 AB) before the
break, .302/.392/.508 (63 AB) after. Is this the end of the pattern? It
certainly appears as though the Dodgers took my advice!
"HOLD ON THERE SPARKY!! (Just to refresh
the memory of those who have not read the article yet - the deal was Ponson and Jayson Nix
for Lo Duca, Quiroz, A.Rowand and M.Hendrickson.) Let me get this straight - you think
that Allentown came out way ahead on this
deal?
...In exchange I got a very solid catcher with both offensive and defensive skills,
currently .416/.447/.545/.992 granted its early but even a line of .286/.438/.428 will
make him worth the 3.1 mil next year. Arguably one of the 3 best catching prospects in the
game in Quiroz - a player not way down in A ball either but a guy in AAA not far from
being able to help. Granted Rowand and Hendrickson may not be of much use but for a team
in my position they were at least worth taking a chance on - especially Rowand. He has the
potential to be a valuable reserve."
-- Gene Patterson, 5/1/04
Quiroz update: .226/.318/.414 in 186 Triple-A AB's
Hendrickson update: 138 IP, 153 H, 16 HR, 31 BB, 52 K, 4.24 ERA ($2m salary)
Rowand update: .307/.355/.547 in 296 AB's ($1.1m salary)
Well, Quiroz has turned out to be pretty useless, and
Hendrickson is a dubious keeper at best, but if LoDuca's second-half curse has really been
broken, and if Rowand continues to play as well over the final two months of the season,
this trade doesn't look nearly as lopsided in retrospect.
"I was searching for something in one of
our old threads and I came across this beauty from Glander:
I also gave Grady Sizemore, Michael Aubrey, Kelly Shoppach, Rob
Quinlan, Aaron Heilman and Seung Song to the Lightning franchise. I've said it before and
I'll say it again: I am the Johnny Appleseed of the BDBL.
So what are you planting there Johnny?"
-- Tom DiStefano, 5/20/04
"Must be a Flowering CRAPapple
Tree!"
-- Gene Patterson, 5/20/04
"...making a LOT of trades with the prospects you
mentioned doesn't necessarily make you "Johnny Appleseed" but it does make you a
farmer. That is, a guy who spends a lot of time spreading around a lot of crap."
-- Tom DiStefano
Okay, let's get an update on how all this
"crap" is performing as of late:
- Grady Sizemore: promoted to the Major Leagues, where he is
hitting .304/.409/.482 in his first 56 MLB at-bats. Considered one of the top young
hitters in baseball.
- Robb Quinlan: hitting .340/.394/.518 in 141 MLB at-bats,
with 1063/815 splits, while qualifying at four different positions (and he hasn't made an
error yet!)
- Michael Aubrey: hit .339/.438/.550 in High-A, then was
promoted to Double-A, where he's hit .259/.345/.357 in 16 games.
- Aaron Heilman: after a very slow start, he's strung
together eight consecutive quality starts. On the season, he owns a 4.27 ERA, and a
50/106 BB/K ratio in 130+ innings.
Granted, Song and Shoppach haven't done much this year,
but if I could go a perfect 6-for-6 in prospect evaluation, I certainly wouldn't be
toiling away in a cubicle for a living. Reports of Johnny Appleseed's demise have
been highly exaggerated, my friends!
"Sheff is a FAV, and I really hadn't
planned on moving him at all. But this deal kind of cummed (sorry Kaz-Tad) out of the
Halladay discussions, and Burrell and the salary situation was a real nice fit. Perhaps
better off to wait, but I really liked the combo we landed here."
-- Steve Osborne, 6/4/04
Since then, of course, Burrell fell into a massive slump,
hit .220/.327/.390 in June, and .221/.336/.385 in July, then injured his wrist and is now
out for the season. And Kaz has been demoted to Triple-A after posting a 4.95 ERA in
the big leagues. Yes, perhaps it was better off to wait.
"Sweet sweet sweet trade for
Marlboro."
-- Brian Potrafka, 6/8/04, on
Marlboro's trade of Miguel Tejada and Ryan Wagner for Kevin Millwood, Jimmy Rollins, Jason
Kershner and Bobby Kielty
"I don't know, Brian. I don't see this
trade as the slam-dunk that you do. I think the Hammerheads have hurt themselves with this
deal."
-- Mike Glander, 6/8/04
Two months later, Marlboro is sporting a sub-.500 record
and are ten games behind the Infidels in the Benes Division.
"I think it was a good trade for both of
us too. I'm happy to add (Jeff) Bagwell to my lineup for this year and (Michael) Tucker
will be serviceable in CF and provide some ABs next year. I think Reed Johnson has some
good upside and Chad Tracy has been on my farm for a couple of years and is now getting
some good ABs with Arizona."
-- Bob Sylvester, 6/12/04
"I think the Slyme came out significantly
better in this deal. Bagwell is going to provide A LOT of offense and Michael Tucker is
going to be a solid CFer next year for Southern Cal. Reed Johnson is having a GOOD
year but a lot of things I have read indicate he is a 4th OF currently playing above his
head. Tracy is a high risk, high reward type. He has definitely shown that he can get
'hot' and put up some serious numbers, but he hasn't shown a lot of power (for 3B) this
year and his hitting .222 (597 OPS) vs. LHP in MLB right now. He has also struggled with
his defense."
-- Gene Patterson, 6/12/04
Update: Tracy is currently sporting a 753 OPS (with
532/817 splits), and Johnson's OPS is just 703 (878/622 splits.) I'd say Gene was
right on the money.
"Yes, I like (Matt) Morris and think he
has good value next year but it isn't like he is dominating in 2004. Don't get me wrong,
he is good pitcher, probably throw 230 innings and have a 1.20 WHIP, an ERA around 3.80,
and be a good value at $6m but 19 HRs allowed already is what got me a little nervous,
plus his ERA is over 4.00 now."
-- Sharky, 6/12/04
Looks like Sharky unloaded Morris at just the right
time. Morris posted a 5.36 ERA in June and a 7.03 ERA in July. Overall, he
owns an ERA of 4.71 and splits of 837/740.
"So, based on the fact that he's a keeper
going forward, (Esteban) Loaiza should have gotten far more for than (Shea Hillenbrand,
Claudio Vargas and Jason Stokes) in trade."
-- Mike Glander, 6/13/04
While Hillenbrand is having a decent year
(.302/.344/.463), Vargas (5.30 ERA) and Stokes (.268/.338/.510) have been nothing special
so far. Meanwhile, Loaiza is 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA for his new team. And thus,
the circle of life continues.
"Merkin Valdez: Stud prospect. How many
studs do the Jamboree have? Not very many....Now we have at least 1.
Ben Grieve: High OBP vs. righties (.390) which is a BCJ staple.... He should get 300
at-bats for RF platoon cheaply.
Scott Schoeneweis: Gives BCJ a starter for next year at 3.5 mil. We only have two lined up
(Thomson, Nomo)... We can now afford to draft 1 or 2 more.
Chad Gaudin: Young, talented reliver or starter for long term.
I don't think this trade is as bad as you think!"
-- Matt Clemm, 6/13/04
Since the trade, Valdez was promoted to the big leagues,
gave up 5 runs in 1.2 innings, was demoted to the minor leagues, and is now trying to
resurrect his career as a reliever. Grieve posted a 673 OPS in June, and his OBP
against righties has dropped to .362 (with a .400 SLG%.) Schoeneweis posted a 5.56
ERA through 111+ innings, then developed elbow problems and is now out for the year.
And Gaudin has posted a pedestrian 4.45 ERA through just 30 innings, and is getting
torched by lefties to the tune of .439/.510/.537.
Moral of the story: If you're going to rebuild, use that
20/20 hindsight to full advantage by waiting as long as you can before you pull the
trigger!
"Cleveland and Sylmar worked out a trade
a couple weeks ago that we didn't report on the board. Jake Westbrook went to Sylmar in
exchange for Benito Santiago."
-- Mike Stein, 6/13/04
"Is this Brandon Webb, Part II? Or Roy
Halladay, Part III?"
-- Mike Glander, 6/14/04
Westbrook's projected stats: 207 IP, 201 H, 20 HR, 61 BB,
111 K, 3.61 ERA.
Santiago's stats for Cleveland: .287/.343/.372 in 94 AB.
"Seriously, (Ian Kinsler) is dominating
in every category, and is supposed to be a great defensive SS. Hell, he may be a little
old for Class A (I assume he is 21 or so) but damn, those are some outrageous numbers.
Wonder if he will fight Michael Young for the SS job in Tex next year?"
-- Sharky, 6/15/04
Kinsler has cooled off quite a bit since then, and is now
hitting .308/.415/.500 overall. I think Michael Young's job is safe for now.
"I am surprised at the number of negative
responses to (the Mike Mussina for Aaron Sele and Jose Acevedo) trade. The driving force
of this trade was to save $5MM for next year's auction AND to get two guys who could help
them next year. Its not like Sele has never had a good year. I believe he has had a few
good years. And Acevedo has talent too. He just happens to pitch in a ballpark that gives
up a ton of homers."
-- John Gill, 7/9/04
Update: Sele is sporting a 4.74 ERA and 731/885 splits,
and is nursing a sore shoulder. Acevedo's ERA is now a mere 6.30, with 987/774
splits. Oh well...at least New Milford saved $5 million. |
