December 22, 2003

2004 Draft Day Preview

Let's face it: the 2003 auction was an exercise in fear and uncertainty.  We all went into that auction completely blind, completely unprepared, and having no concept of what to expect.  Here we are a year later.  Older, wiser, and still completely blind.  There is just as much fear and uncertainty today as there was a year ago, but that's the beauty of an auction, isn't it?  It is just so unpredictable.  Naturally, then, that is what I attempt to do each year: predict what will happen in the coming auction.  Sure, I tend to be wrong more often than I'm right, but it's still fun (and, I hope, educational) to ask the questions and try to predict the answers.

Last year, I posted predicted salaries for all 50 players in the auction (42 of which were actually in the auction, as the Draft Day Preview went to the press before Cutdown Day.)  Of those 42 players, I correctly predicted the salaries for 12 of them.  I came within $500,000 on 8 others, and within $1.5 million on 9 others.  That leaves 13 players where I fell completely off the mark.  Not bad (if I do say so myself), though I'll try to do a bit better this year.

As with last year's auction and draft, this year's Draft Day comes with many important questions that beg to be answered.  I'll try to do so now, to the best of my ability.

Question: How much money is out there this year?

If it seems like there's more money to be spent this year than last year, it's only because it is true.  Last year, there was a total of $557.1 million available to spend on 360 players - an average of $1.55 million per player.   This year, there is a total of $606.2 million to spend on 343 players - an average of $1.77 million per player.

What does that mean?  Well, it could very well mean a 9% increase in inflation in this year's auction.   Last year, a total of $328.5 million was spent on the 50 free agents in the auction (about 60% of the total.)  If that proportion holds true for this year, that means about $363.5 million will be spent on those 50 players.

Though this year's auction is much deeper than last year's, I think that overall number will be a bit lower (for reasons I'll get to eventually.)  I'll put the total figure closer to $340 million for the 50 players in this year's auction.

Question: How much am I going to have to pay for these guys in the auction?

As in the real world, BDBL economics are driven by supply and demand.  With that said, expect to pay a premium for starting pitching, as that is something that is always in high demand.  Last year, three teams gambled $10 million or more on a starting pitcher, and in all three cases (Maddux, Washburn and Glavine), that gamble left each team with a huge black hole in their salary cap the following year.  Don't expect that to deter anyone from taking the same gamble this year, however.

I have four different pitchers listed in the chart to the right that I believe will rake in $10m or more at the auction.  All four have serious questions surrounding their value going forward.  Vazquez is moving to the American League in the high-pressured atmosphere of the Bronx Zoo.  Schilling is 37 years old and is also moving to the American League and another high-pressured situation.   Schmidt had major elbow surgery last October and may have to start the 2004 season on the DL.  Amazingly enough, Nomo is probably the safest bet of the four, though he, too, is getting up there in age (35).

Despite the risks involved, you can't win without pitching, and eight teams in the BDBL are looking for a #1 starter.  History has proven that just about any contract is tradable if a GM is creative enough, so the risk may not be as great as it seems.  But then again, ask Tony DeCastro or Greg Newgard if he regrets signing Glavine or Washburn last year at this time.

Of course, hitters aren't exactly risk-free, either.   No hitter was more of a sure thing in last year's auction than Vladimir Guerrero.   Yet, just one year later, Guerrero's $16 million salary looks a little high next to his 394 total at-bats.  In fact, of the seven hitters signed at more than $10 million in last year's auction, five of them (Guerrero, Sosa, Edmonds, Walker and Sweeney) aren't worth nearly as much as they were just a year ago.  (Yet another example of how art imitates life in the BDBL.)

There are no Bondses or Guerreros in this year's auction, but this year's draft class is much, much deeper than last year's.  Last year, eight different players in the auction were signed for $3 million or less.  This year, I'm projecting just one $3 million player: Aaron Boone.  (And given the number of teams looking for a third baseman, I wouldn't be surprised if Boone gets more than that.)

Another big difference between this year's auction and last year's is the number of platoon players.  Last year, most of the free agent hitters were full-time players that performed well against both lefties and righties.   This year, there is a large group of lefties (Abreu, Giambi and Nixon in particular) that hit much better against righties than lefties.  How much is the league willing to pay for a platoon player?  We don't yet have an answer to that question.

Another question yet to be answered is how much the league is willing to pay for a dominant reliever.  Last year, the most dominant relievers in the draft were Octavio Dotel and Chris Hammond, and both went for $5 million (both to the Bear Country Jamboree.)  No one was willing to cross the $5 million threshold to obtain a dominant closer, as the "Type H" clause would then kick in, and relievers are generally not signed to long-term contracts in the BDBL.

This year, however, there are several relievers that are so dominating, the temptation to go the extra year may simply be too strong.  As dominant as Dotel was last year, his numbers are completely dwarfed by Eric Gagne's.   And Billy Wagner is right behind him, with the added bonus of being left-handed.   I predict both will go for more than $5 million, and I wouldn't be surprised if a couple other relievers cross that invisible barrier as well.

Question: How important was the tie-breaker last year?

As reported by Peter Gammons last month, 11 out of the 50 free agent auctions last year were decided by the tie-breaker.  This year, the first tie-breaker is previous ownership of the player, and no team owns more of those tie-breakers than the Marlboro Hammerheads.

For the most part, tie-breakers tend to come into play with those $5 million players that have a lot of value in the current year, but have big questions going forward.  This year, I've predicted that 13 players will be drafted at $5 million, which means the teams that own the tie-breakers for those players will be sitting pretty.

Question: Where were the bargains found last year?

You might remember that in last year's Draft Day Preview, I speculated as to where the bargains would be found.  I provided three different theories, with my thought process on why each theory could be correct.  In the end, the answer was, "D: none of the above."

The bargains in last year's auction were John Olerud ($4m less than I predicted), Kevin Appier ($3m), Jeff Bagwell ($3m), Larry Walker ($3m), Luis Gonzalez ($2m), Sammy Sosa ($2m) and Mike Sweeney ($2m).  There really is no rhyme nor reason for their deflated salaries, other than the fact that six of the seven were corner outfielders or first basemen.  Perhaps I just overvalued corner outfielders and first basemen when I made my predictions.

In any case, all three of my theories were wrong.   Players whose lots expired early in the auction didn't tend be any more or less expensive than those that went in the middle or the end of the auction.  In the end, all that mattered was supply and demand.  Apparently, there were a lot of first basemen and corner outfielders in last year's auction, and not enough demand to drive their salaries as high as I predicted.

Actually, both Sweeney and Walker could have gone for much lower salaries had it not been for Southern Cal.  Sweeney's salary was $11 million.  Had it not been for Southern Cal's $11m bid, Sweeney would have gone for just $6.5m.  Walker's $11m salary was also made possible by an $11m bid from Southern Cal.  Had it not been for that bid, his salary would be just $8m.  And Bagwell would have a $7m salary if not for Oakland's $10m bid.

That just goes to show how much power a team with a ton of money can have in this draft.

Question: Who are the big spenders this year?

As I did last year, I'll break up the teams into various categories.  The first is the "Just Happy to Be Here" group: Allentown ($6.5m to spend), Chicago ($8.9m), New Milford ($9.6m) and Nashville ($16.3m).  These guys are basically just hanging around under the table, hoping a crumb or two falls their way.

Chicago comes to the draft with a full lineup, rotation and bullpen already at hand, so whoever they get in this draft is merely icing on the cake.  Allentown could use a right fielder and some bullpen help, and New Milford needs two corner outfielders and a third baseman (which is a pretty tough order to fill with only $9.6m to spend.) Nashville only needs a couple of quality starting pitchers, and has a decent amount of money to spend on them, compared to the others in this group.

The next group I'll call the "Bargain Hunters": Silicon Valley ($16.9m), Akron ($17.4m), South Carolina ($17.9m) and Litchfield ($18m).   These guys have a few more holes to fill than the group above, but they'll have to pinch their pennies a bit harder in order to do so.

The next group is called, "Desperate and Loaded" (or "Drunken College Students on a Thursday Night"): Gillette ($21.9m), Kansas ($21.9m), Bear Country ($26.9m), Manchester ($27.9m), Marlboro ($27.1m), Sylmar ($30.2m), Villanova ($30.8m), Great Lakes ($37m), Stamford ($38.6m) and Wapakoneta ($42.5m). These guys have a TON of money to spend, but a ton of holes to fill as well.   They'll be throwing money around like a Democrat at a budget meeting, and are the most likely candidates to overspend in this auction.  The Hippos, in particular, need a catcher, third baseman, shortstop, left fielder, center fielder, right fielder, #1 starter, #2 starter and a couple of decent relievers, and have a whopping $42.5 million budget to work with.

Finally, the last group I'll call the "Precision Bombers": Southern Cal ($23.7m), Atlanta ($27.9m), Salem ($28.8m), Ravenswood ($30.5m), Los Altos ($33.2m) and Cleveland ($45.8m).  These guys also have a ton of money to spend, but not many holes to fill.  Southern Cal, in particular, could be very dangerous in this draft, as they have $23.7 million to spend, but no glaring holes to fill at all.

Atlanta could spend most of their $27.9 million on pitching, but if they're serious about rebuilding, then they'll probably hold off and spend that money in the draft instead.  Salem just needs a middle infield, and has $28.8 million with which to purchase one.  Ravenswood needs only a pair of corner outfielders, and has plenty of money to purchase a pair of book-end all-stars.  Los Altos has just two glaring holes to fill, at CF/RF and #4 starter, but with $33.2m to spend, they could easily purchase a #1 starter and shift the rest of their rotation down a notch.

Then, there are the Cleveland Rocks, who come into this draft with a whopping $45.8 million to spend.  But before you start hanging that 2004 flag in Cleveland, just remember that the South Carolina Sea Cats had $56.9 million to spend in last year's draft and ended up with 97 losses.  And the Southern Cal Slyme had $32.9 million to spend on just four players, and finished the year with 110 losses.   History has proven that having a ton of money to spend in the draft is no guarantee of future success.

Question: How does the draft look?

Just as this year's auction is much deeper than last year's, so, too, is the draft.  If you're in the market for a reliever, you're in luck.  The draft is chock full of them: Ugueth Urbina, Eddie Guardado, Joe Borowski, Jason Isringhausen, Alan Embree, Ray King, Troy Percival, Felix Heredia, Paul Shuey, Armando Benitez, Chris Hammond, Arthur Rhodes, Steve Kline, Braden Looper...and the list goes on and on.

Looking for a starter?  How about Derek Lowe, Brad Radke, Brian Anderson, Gil Meche or John Burkett?

Looking for offense?  How about Preston Wilson, Kevin Millar, Raul Ibanez, Kenny Lofton, Jeff Conine or Scott Spiezio?

If you're interested in capitalizing on an off-year by a big-name star, you'll have plenty to choose from, including Bernie Williams, Troy Glaus, Craig Biggio, Ryan Klesko, Robin Ventura and Mike Piazza.

Last year, there were only six picks made in the second or third rounds of the draft.  This year, it's easy to envision two dozen.  The depth of the draft is so great, in fact, that it may actually deter people from overspending in the auction (which is one of the reasons why I've predicted less money will be spent in the auction, proportionately, than was spent last year.)

Question: Okay, how about the 2005 auction?   Should I start saving my money now?

Next year's auction is surprisingly thin.  The big names, of course, are the same ones from last year's auction: Barry Bonds, Vladimir Guerrero and Sammy Sosa.  Roy Halladay will also be on the block.  Mike Sweeney, Jason Varitek, J.D. Drew, Corey Koskie, Shannon Stewart, Randy Wolf, Ivan Rodriguez, Ray Durham, Russ Ortiz, Torii Hunter, Garrett Anderson, Andy Pettitte, Greg Maddux, Jeff Bagwell, Luis Gonzalez, Tom Glavine and Larry Walker will be available as well.

If you want to save your money, save it for 2005.   That's when Mark Mulder, Richard Hidalgo, Jorge Posada, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Kendall, Rafael Furcal, Matt Morris, Richie Sexson, Gary Sheffield, Mike Mussina, Mark Buehrle, Wade Miller and Orlando Cabrera all hit the market.  Or how about 2009?   That's when A-Rod, Derek Jeter, Carlos Zambrano, Ichiro, Sean Burroughs and Andruw Jones become free agents.

Question: Do you have any other tips or advice, Mr. Baseball?

Tip #1: If there are two players in the same lot that you are interested in, you can bid your maximum amount on both players, even if the total of those max bids is more than you can afford.  The only catch is this: you must place these bids on the day the auction ends for that lot.  Just bid on these players in order of preference.

For example, let's say you like both Carlos Delgado and Eric Gagne in Lot #1, but you only have $15m to spend in the auction.  Under current league rules, your maximum bids are not allowed to exceed $15 million.  However, because only winning bids are counted toward this max, and because the system only determines winning or losing bids once per day, you can submit bids for both that are in excess of your $15 million max. 

So, for example, let's say you bid $12 million on Delgado and $6 million on Gagne.  If you bid on Delgado first, and you win the bid, your bid for Gagne would be removed from the system.  If you bid on Gagne first, and you win that bid, your Delgado bid would be cancelled.  If you lose the bid on your first player of choice, your second bid would still stand.  You cannot, however, win both bids in this scenario, because the total maximum bids will have exceeded $15 million.

Tip #2: Keep an eye on your finances, and remember that there is a draft after the auction has ended.  In other words, don't spend all of your money in one place (unless that's your strategy.)

Tip #3: Don't forget that the decisions you make this year can affect your team next year, for better or worse.  There's nothing worse than getting stuck with an overpriced waste of roster space.

Tip #4: If, for some ungodly reason, you want to bid more than $20 million for any player, just send me an e-mail with your bid amount.   You won't have to worry about me out-bidding you.

Tip #5: Remember, you can place a bid on a player at any time, as long as his auction has not yet ended.  If you want to place a bid on a player in Lot #10 on the first of January, go right ahead.  The system will automatically up your bid to the maximum limit you specify until that maximum is exceeded or the bid is won.  Just remember: the total of all of your maximum bids cannot exceed your available cash.  So, if you have $15m to spend, you cannot have more than $15m in total maximum bids on the table.  If you bid $10m on a player in Lot #10 on January 1st, that leaves you with just $5m to bid on the other players in the auction.

Best of luck to everyone, and remember: have fun!