March 18, 2005

2005 BDBL Farm Report

Every year at this time, the cottage industry known as prospect evaluation takes center stage, as every two-bit hack with a web site and a half-baked opinion posts his list of top prospects.  And every year at this time, we cherry-pick the best of those lists to help us rank our own BDBL farm clubs, as seen through the eyes of the "experts."

Of course, different hacks have different philosophies when it comes to prospect evaluation.  Some prefer the toolsy teenagers who look good in denim.  Some prefer slow-footed thumpers who draw lots of walks and hit lots of doubles.  Others claim to mix both scouting and stats into their evaluations.  Our ultimate goal is to provide a master list that is the culmination of all of these varying philosophies.

This year's panel of experts is comprised of the following:

• Baseball Prospectus: Their stated goal is to compile a prospect list that is based solely on statistical profiling.  And according to a recent study I did, BBP's method does a better job of predicting future performance than any other method.
• Baseball America: The anti-BBP, anti-Moneyball people.  They love toolsy teenagers in tight Levi's and high school pitchers with 100-mph fastballs.
• John Sickels: Sickels uses a healthy mixture of performance analysis and scouting to generate his list.  The problem is that Sickels is a big wuss, and abandoned the overall ranking a few years ago by splitting his prospect list into two: one for hitters and one for pitchers.  Because of this, his rankings are double-counted in our study.
• RotoWorld: We can probably assume that this list is based mostly on future rotisserie value.  It's always nice to hear from the "What Have You Done For Me Lately?" people.
• BDBL: That's right, the BDBL Prospects Survivor survey is included among the panel of "experts."  And why the hell not?  We know at least as much as RotoWorld, right?

The methodology is simple.  I assign 100 points to the #1-ranked prospect on each list, 99 points to #2, and so on down the list.  I then add up all the points, then sum all the points for each team.  When all is said and done, here is where we stand:

And now, the ever-popular capsule summaries for each team, with each prospect's overall ranking listed in parentheses:

#1 Villanova Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Andy Marte (3), Casey Kotchman (5), Chad Billingsley (14), Jeremy Reed (15), Nick Swisher (19), Jesse Crain (35), Joe Blanton (37), Curtis Granderson (50), Brian McCann (54), Joey Votto (103), Dustin McGowan (115), Adam Wainwright (147)
Unranked prospects: Ryan Doumit, Freddy Sanchez, Matt Tuiasosopo, Justin Jones, Anthony Swarzak, Craig Whitaker

Raise your hand if you're surprised by this ranking.  With all the crowing he has been doing over the past year, Tony C. has actually developed a wattle.  The Mustangs, who also ranked #1 in this study last year, have five prospects ranked among the top 20 and eight ranked among the top 50.  I took a look back at past farm reports to see if any other team in league history could match this accomplishment and found that no team has even come close.

In 2001, the Undertakers owned three prospects in the top ten.  Of the three (Ben Sheets, Jon Rauch and Carlos Pena), only Sheets turned into an all-star-caliber player (and that didn't happen until after he'd turned 25 and several BDBL teams had given up on him.)

In 2002, the Blazers owned three top 20 prospects.  To date, none of the three (Sean Burroughs, Austin Kearns or Mike Cuddyer) has yet fulfilled his lofty potential.

In 2003, the Cowtippers owned four top-20 prospects (Mark Teixeira, Casey Kotchman, Rich Harden and Cliff Lee) and one #25 (Chris Snelling.)  So far, only Teixeira has proven himself to be an all-star at the major league level.  (Though, in fairness, it's only been two years.)

And last year, the Mustangs owned four top-20 prospects as well (Kotchman, Reed, Marte and Dustin McGowan), plus a #24 (Wainwright.)  Since then, three of those five have moved backward in this ranking.  In other words, owning a buttload of top-20 prospects is no guarantee of future success.

#2 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Adam Miller (11), Rickie Weeks (12), Jeremy Hermida (26), Edwin Jackson (30), Chris Nelson (36), Brian Dopirak (41), Franklin Gutierrez (53), Jared Weaver (58), Ryan Harvey (78), Val Majewski (108), Kyle Sleeth (128), Jeremy Sowers (145)
Unranked prospects: Jeff Clement, Alex Gordon, Stephen Head, Chris Shelton, Justin Upton, Aaron Heilman, Wade Townsend

Again, no big shocker here.  Of course, the scary thing here is that this team owns the #2 farm system in the BDBL despite the fact that some of this team's best prospects aren't yet ranked because they haven't turned pro.  The Undertakers have owned the last two MLB amateur drafts.  In 2003, five of the first ten players selected were Undertakers properties.  And in 2004, Los Altos owned three of the first eight players selected, traded for another (Nelson) in the top ten, and also owned #12 (Weaver), who really should have been the #1 pick on talent alone.

In 2005, the Undertakers own four of the top ten projected picks according to Baseball America.  How many points will those amateurs generate in next year's farm report?  Well, the top ten picks from the 2004 draft account for 935 points in our current study, while the top ten from the Class of '03 totals total a whopping 1,817 points.  All of which means the Undertakers will more than likely top this list in 2006 and 2007.  Whether or not that means the Undertakers will also top the standings thanks to all those top amateur prospects is another topic for another time.

#3 Manchester Irish Rebels
Ranked prospects: Scott Kazmir (8), Jeff Francis (10), Deric Barton (13), Matt Cain (15), Carlos Quentin (18), Cole Hamels (48), Nick Markakis (67), Joey Gathright (142)
Unranked prospects: Adam Donachie, Ryan Jones, Jarrod Saltalamaccia, Scott Elbert, Clint Everts, Justin Hoyman, Sam Lecure, Adam Loewen, Joe Saunders, Jason Windsor

For years, Jim Doyle had a foolproof system when it came to selecting players for his farm club.  He simply ran his finger down the list of first-round picks from the previous year and selected the first available name.  This system worked so well, the Irish Rebels have consistently and steadily climbed up the rankings, from #22 to #16 to #12 to #8 to #7 and, now, to #3.  This system allowed the Irish Rebels to take gambles on high school pitchers like Kazmir, Hamels and Loewen when no one else was willing to take that gamble.  It also allowed this team to find hidden gems like Barton and Quentin, who were considered overdrafts when they were first selected.  Yet, despite the success of this system, Jim Doyle has since abandoned it.  Go figure.

#4 Allentown Ridgebacks
Ranked prospects: Felix Hernandez (1), Michael Aubrey (21), Edwin Encarnacion (32), Billy Butler (60), Richie Robnett (91), Wily Aybar (100), Ryan Garko (104), Josh Kroeger (146), Jason Bartlett (151)
Unranked prospects: Casey Craig, Elijah Dukes, Kelly Johnson, George Kottaras, Nate Schierholtz, Matt Whitney, Jake Dittler

No team improved more in the rankings than the Ridgebacks, and it's all due to one (very) young man.  Perhaps you've heard of the name "Felix Hernandez" before?  If so, it's only because that name has been mentioned again and again and again, on a nearly weekly basis, since the day Tom DiStefano first selected him with the 18th overall pick of the 2004 farm draft.  Among the names selected ahead of Hernandez in that draft: Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Karp, Jeff Salazar, Jorge de la Rosa, Joey Gathright, Dan Johnson, Chadd Blasko and the immortal Brent Clevlen.  Ugh.

At the time, Hernandez was a 17-year-old pitcher.  And we all know what usually happens to 17-year-old pitching phenoms.  But apparently, Hernandez is no ordinary 17-year-old pitching phenom.  He was ranked among the top three prospects in the game by all five of our experts, and he now ranks as the #1 prospect in baseball in this cumulative study.  But before you go ripping up your TINSTAAPP membership card, remember that one year ago, Edwin Jackson was the top-ranked pitcher in this study.  The year before that, Jesse Foppert topped this list.  And the year before that, Josh Beckett topped this list.  And though he's enjoyed some success, Beckett has yet to throw more than 157 innings in a season.  Long live TINSTAAPP.

#5 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Dan Meyer (22), Gavin Floyd (25), Anthony Reyes (28), Zach Duke (42), Brad Snyder (83), Ryan Sweeney (86), Greg Miller (106), Brandon Wood (140)
Unranked prospects: Shane Costa, Chris Lubanski, Sean Rodriguez, Brad Snyder, Ryan Sweeney, Brandon Wood, Bobby Livingston, Kyle Snyder, Jamie Vermilyea

It seems odd that the top four prospects for the team that plays half its games in a Coors Field-modeled ballpark are all pitchers, yet some research suggests that is the way to go.  The problem with pitching prospects is that they often tend to get hurt.  Case in point: Greg Miller, who went from #12 on this list last year to #106 this year.  In fact, of the top 20 pitchers on last year's list, 11 of them (Cole Hamels, Miller, Dustin McGowan, Ervin Santana, Chin Hui Tsao, Adam Wainwright, Bobby Jenks, Adam Loewen, Angel Guzman, Blake Hawksworth and Kris Honel) missed at least a third of the season due to injury.  And most of the remaining nine (such as Ryan Wagner, Clint Nageotte and Edwin Jackson) suffered from disappointing seasons, resulting in a precipitous drop in this ranking.  Of the top twenty, only Zach Greinke, Scott Kazmir and Gavin Floyd enjoyed some semblance of success.  This team's #1 farm pick this year, Reyes, is supremely talented, but was also supremely injury-prone throughout his college career.  That should raise a giant red flag over Kansas.

#6 Corona Confederates
Ranked prospects: Jose Capellan (23), Connor Jackson (37), Jeff Niemann (49), Shin-Soo Choo (52), Joe Mauer (70), Ian Snell (78), Josh Banks (112), Tim Stauffer (123), Clint Nageotte (133)
Unranked prospects: Jeff Baker, Ryan Braun, Brendan Harris, Jeff Duncan, Cameron Maybin, Vince Sinisi, Brian Snyder, Josh Banks, Rett Johnson

It is hard not to give credit where credit is due.  In the twelve months or so leading up to his departure, Paul Marazita did a phenomenal job rebuilding the Stamford farm club.  Two years ago, the Zoots' farm system was all but in shambles, save for the generous donation made by the Hippos organization (Mauer.)  The next best prospect on the Stamford team at that time was Brandon Phillips, who turned into a stunning disappointment (but not before he was dumped in exchange for an all-star hitter, of course.)  Then, during the course of the 2003 season, Marazita picked up Ian Stewart, Jackson, Snell and Niemann as farm free agents.  Those additions, along with the mid-2002 free agent acquisition of Delmon Young, turned this farm club into one of the strongest in the BDBL.  Of course, you may have heard that Young and Stewart have since been traded.  Had that trade not occurred, the Confederates would rank two places higher in this survey.  And if each of our panel of experts considered Mauer for their lists (Note: only Baseball America included him), this farm club could very well include three of the top five prospects in baseball.

#7 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Delmon Young (2), Ian Stewart (4), Jake Stevens (72), Jon Zeringue (97), Thomas Pauly (107), David Aardsma (111), Fernando Cabrera (113)
Unranked prospects: Travis Buck, Alberto Callaspo, Ruben Gotay, Kenji Jojima, Matt Albers, Abe Alvarez, Francisco Cruceta, Luke Hochevar, Kei Igawa, Hirotoshi Ishii, Ian Kennedy, Koji Uehara

With the graduation of B.J. Upton to the 35-man roster, and the trades of Adam Miller, Jose Capellan, Edwin Jackson, Kendry Morales and Richie Robnett this winter, the Cowtippers' farm would be in sorry shape if not for the off-season acquisitions of Young and Stewart.  After trading away so many top-50 prospects over the past six years, it was long overdue for the conveyer belt on this assembly line to be reversed for a brief moment.  2005 marks the fourth time in the past six seasons that the Cowtippers have owned at least one top five prospect.  Salem owned two top-fives (B.J. Upton at #2 and Edwin Jackson at #5) last year, the #1 prospect (Mark Teixeira) in 2003, and the #5 prospect (Sean Burroughs) in 2001.

#8 Silicon Valley CyberSox
Ranked prospects: Dallas McPherson (7), Huston Street (51), J.D. Durbin (57), Mitch Einertson (67), Omar Quintanilla (88), J.P. Howell (105), David Purcey (108), Aaron Hill (127), Ben Hendrickson (153)
Unranked prospects: Nelson Cruz, Koyie Hill, Jayson Nix, Willy Taveras, Jeremy Guthrie, Kris Honel, John VanBenschoten

There seems to be a considerable difference of opinion over whether McPherson or Casey Kotchman is the better prospect at this point.  While McPherson offers tremendous power potential, and is much closer to realizing that power at the MLB level, he is also three years older than Kotchman, tends to strike out a lot, and doesn't project to hit for a very high average.  Baseball Prospectus ranks McPherson #4 and Kotchman #5.  Sickels ranks Kotchman #7 and McPherson #8.  RotoWorld ranks Kotchman #5 and McPherson #13.  BBA ranks Kotchman #6 and McPherson #12.  And the BDBL ranks McPherson #4 and Kotchman #6.  Why am I even talking about Kotchman?  Because up until December of 2003, the CyberSox owned both McPherson AND Kotchman.  But Kotchman was traded (along with Matt Kinney and Jack Cust) for Carlos Lee and Guthrie.  Of course, Kotchman was acquired in that famous 2003 trade involving Barry Zito.  And McPherson was acquired in a 2003 trade in exchange for Eric Hinske (believe it or not.)  What does all of this mean?  I don't know.  I just find it interesting.

#9 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Yusmeiro Petit (23), Lastings Milledge (31), Josh Barfield (76), Scott Baker (84), Justin Huber (88), Taylor Buchholz (155)
Unranked prospects: Reid Brignac, Alexis Gomez, Dan Johnson, Dave Krynzel, Matt Murton, Eric Reed, Gaby Hernandez, Jon Lester, Kameron Loe, Franquelis Osoria, Nick Pesco, Andy Sisco

It was a tough year for Sea Cats prospects, as Barfield (#27 last year), Buchholz (#54), Sisco (#56) and Huber (#71) all fell down (or completely off) the rankings.  Of the nine unranked prospects on last year's list, none improved enough to warrant a ranking this year.  And of the entire South Carolina farm club from 2004, only Milledge (#149 last year) increased his ranking in this study.  Yet despite all of that, the Sea Cats improved four spots in the overall ranking thanks to the mid-season free agent acquisition Petit.

#10 Atlanta Fire Ants
Ranked prospects: Jeff Francoeur (20), Kyle Davies (43), Guillermo Quiroz (72), Brandon Moss (78), Wes Bankston (94), Adam Harben (117)
Unranked prospects: Ryan Church, Xavier Paul, Bronson Sardinha, Delwyn Young, Jason Arnold, Bryan Bullington, Bubba Nelson, Ricky Nolasco, Rhett Parrott

Is it coincidence that Atlanta's two top prospects are with the Braves organization?  Probably not.  Because of his youth, his athleticism, his speed, his power potential, his inability to tell a strike from a ball, and the amount of gushing praise he earns from scouts and Baseball America, Francoeur reminds me a lot of Rocco Baldelli.  You can judge for yourself whether that's good or bad.  For all the heaping praise the Atlanta Braves receive for their ability to develop young pitching, the last several "can't miss" pitchers Atlanta has developed have all missed so far: Nelson, Adam Wainwright, Macay McBride, Brett Evert, Matt Belisle, Matt McClendon, Luis Rivera, Bruce Chen, Kevin McGlinchy, Rob Bell, etc..  Odalis Perez and Jason Marquis are the only two pitchers developed by Atlanta over the past nine years that have become valuable contributors.  You have to go all the way back to 1996 (Jason Schmidt) to find an Atlanta-developed pitcher that actually lived up to his considerable hype.  That's not to say that Davies won't become another Jason Schmidt.  It just means that his success certainly isn't a given.

#11 Nashville Funkadelic
Ranked prospects: Chris Burke (29), Ryan Howard (33), Mike Hinckley (40), Tad Iguchi (153)
Unranked prospects: Wilson Betemit, Travis Chapman, John Gall, Freddy Guzman, Norihiro Nakamura, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Arnie Munoz, Fernando Rodney

We've already touched upon the overabundance of Japanese players on the Nashville roster, so there's no need to rehash those old jokes.  The fact that Iguchi only appears on one list, and ranks 96th on that list, is a travesty of justice.  The Funk's top two prospects were each acquired via trade, in exchange for roster-filler Roberto Alomar, Aquilino Lopez and Dan Plesac.  Any time you can pick up two top-40 prospects for garbage like that, you're doing well.  If Matsuzaka comes to the U.S., he could be every bit as successful as Hideo Nomo was when he first arrived.  Unfortunately, between the abuse his arm has faced over the past several years, and the fact that he won't become a free agent until after the 2007 season, it is equally likely that he could be as washed up as the current version of Nomo by the time he arrives.

#12 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Kendry Morales (44), Merkin Valdez (47), John Danks (62), Dustin Pedroia (77), Homer Bailey (85), Josh Willingham (115), Corey Hart (134)
Unranked prospects: Larry Broadway, Matt Moses, Humberto Quintero, Cha Seung Beak, Jason Hirsch, John Hudgins, Francisco Liriano, Paul Maholm, Dan Ortmeier

After five seasons, the Bear Country farm has finally broken the top 20, and it's all because of Kendry Morales.  Of the five experts on this year's panel, Baseball Prospectus was the only one to exclude Morales from their list.  The others ranked him #16 (Sickels), #30 (RotoWorld and BDBL) and #76 (Baseball America.)  For a guy with no professional experience whatsoever, that's pretty good.  Of course, if Morales were a high school senior with no professional experience, there is little doubt that he would rank even higher on all five of those lists.  Delmon Young, for example, ranked #2 on BBA's list last year despite having no professional experience beyond the Arizona Fall League at that point.  But because Morales defected from Cuba, and because most Cuban players (mostly pitchers) have not lived up to lofty expectations, Morales is penalized a bit.  I personally have him listed as the #12 prospect in baseball.  Time will tell who is right. 

Another prospect with almost no professional experience on the Jamboree farm is Bailey, who posted some absolutely sick numbers in high school last year (93 IP, 36 H, 19 BB, 201 K, 0.68 ERA.)  It will be interesting to see how high he ranks on this list a year from now.  He reminds me a lot of Josh Beckett, who posted some pretty sick numbers in high school himself.

#13 Sylmar Padawans
Ranked prospects: Brandon McCarthy (34), Richie Gardner (55), Brandon League (61), Jairo Garcia (87), Howie Kendrick (96), Chuck Tiffany (125), Neil Walker (139)
Unranked prospects: Matt Bush, Todd Linden, Calos Sosa, Matt Chico, Jason Hammel, Macay McBride, Ramon Pena, Vince Perkins, Royce Ring

Three of the Padawans' top four prospects were acquired during this winter's free agent and farm drafts.  According to our expert panel, McCarthy was a pretty good choice as the #1 overall pick, as he ranks #2 (behind only Anthony Reyes) among all available prospects selected this year.  With the first pick in the second round, Sylmar selected Gardner, who ranks #4 on the list among available prospects.  In other words, John Duel did a pretty damn good job of selecting prospects in this year's farm draft.

Of course, all four of this team's top four prospects are pitchers, which raises the TINSTAAPP flag to full mast.  Of the hitting prospects, Kendrick has an electric bat, but doesn't seem to generate a lot of buzz.  Perhaps the pundits have bought into my own personal theory of TINSTAASBP, given the recent failures of second basemen Bobby Hill, Carlos Febles, Brandon Phillips, Jayson Nix, Jake Gautreau, Jose Ortiz, Pablo Ozuna, Jason Romano, Warren Morris, Chad Hermanson and seemingly every other second base prospect to appear on a top prospects list over the past decade.  And the success rate for high school catchers is worse than it is for high school pitchers, which raises the TINSTAACP flag over Walker.

#14 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Prince Fielder (9), J.J. Hardy (64), Jeff Mathis (91), Sergio Santos (91), Kurt Suzuki (117), Andy LaRoche (134), Joaquin Arias (136)
Unranked prospects: Josh Hamilton, J.R. House, Adam Jones, David Kelton, Ryan Ludwick, John Mayberry, Jr., Richard Hill, Chris Seddon, Sean Tracey

Perhaps it's the vast age difference, but John Gill's level of patience is at least 100 times my own.  He stuck with Drew Henson a lot longer than I would have tolerated, and the fact that he still has Josh Hamilton, Ryan Ludwick and (until recently) J.R. House on his roster speaks volumes about his loyalty to his players.  With the graduations of Bobby Crosby and Khalil Greene, the collapses of Mathis and Hardy and the trade of Chris Burke, the Black Sox farm own the steepest decline in this ranking, from #2 to #12.  Still, with the placement of Fielder in the top ten, this marks the fourth year in a row Chicago has owned at least one top ten prospect in this survey.  And, as we've seen, it is often better to own one top-ten prospect than ten top-50 prospects.

#15 Southern Cal Slyme
Ranked prospects: Hensley Muelens-Ramirez (17), Felix Pie (66), Phil Humber (69), Jon Broxton (99), Ezequiel Astacio (130)
Unranked prospects: Blake DeWitt, Francisco Hernandez, Jeff Larish, Dionner Navarro, Drew Stubbs, Nick Adenhart, Bobby Brownlie, Christian Garcia, Kevin Jepsen, Chris Oxspring, Maels Rodriguez

Oddly enough, I like the players on the unranked list much more than the players in the ranked group.  As you all know, I'm no big fan of Muelens-Ramirez.  Not surprisingly, Baseball America has him ranked higher (#10) than anyone else.  Pie is another toolsy guy whom BBA ranks as the #31 prospect in baseball.  I'd much rather take my chances on guys like Hernandez, Stubbs and DeWitt.  The more Brownlie pitches, the more it looks as though the injury he suffered in college was career-threatening.  Adenhart is currently recovering from the rite of passage known as Tommy John surgery, and Rodriguez (the #1 overall pick in the 2004 farm draft) is still unsigned, as that mid-90's fastball is still MIA.  Overall, it's a mixed bag.  If I were a betting man, I'd say Ramirez falls in next year's ranking, while Humber rises and DeWitt and Hernandez join the rank-and-file.

#16 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Joel Guzman (5), Thomas Diamond (62), Angel Guzman (117), Mark Teahen (125), Jason Dubois (143)
Unranked prospects: Ambiorex Concepcion, Lance Niekro, Stephen Smitherman, Chris Young, Matt Belisle, Boof Bonser, Bobby Jenks, John Maine, Dustin Moseley, Jae-Kuk Ryu

A couple of years ago, I marveled at the fact that relics from the Zigmund administration still existed on this farm roster.  Believe it or not, one of those guys (Niekro) is still there! Here's a free tip: If a player has been on your farm roster since the Clinton administration, it's safe to say he's never going to amount to anything.  The same applies to guys like Bonser, Jenks and Belisle, who were top 50 prospects three or four years ago but have since fallen off the prospect radar.  Cut them loose.  Free up that space for someone with a little more upside potential.  Take a few risks.  If you're going to tie up a farm slot for five years, take a great Japanese player and hope he comes to the U.S..  Find a player trapped in Cuba and hope he defects.  Find a precocious 13-year-old high school freshman and hope he turns into the next Delmon Young.  But for godssake, don't waste that spot on a guy like Lance Niekro!

#17 Marlboro Hammerheads
Ranked prospects: Scott Olsen (45), Ian Kinsler (56), Ervin Santana (70), Fernando Nieve (90)
Unranked prospects: Jason Botts, Brent Colamarino, Jeff Fiorentino, Greg Golson, Landon Powell, Daniel Bard, Manny Delcarmen, Phil Hughes, Eric Hurley, Anibal Sanchez, Alay Soler

How embarrassing it must be to be ranked behind a team that still has Lance Niekro lurking around on their farm club!  To be fair, Sharky has spent this past winter trading away most of his best prospects, including Billy Butler (60), Chris Nelson (36), Brian Dopirak (41), Mark Teahen (125), Bobby Brownlie (NR) and Jon Broxton (99).  Since that list basically includes a Rob Deer clone (Dopirak), a Joe Randa clone (Teahen), a couple of risky arms and a couple of teenage hitters, he didn't really sacrifice all that much.  I'd personally take Santana over Brownlie or Broxton, and Kinsler over Teahen.  Interestingly enough, this franchise has yet to own a top 15 prospect in this survey.  (Marlon Byrd at #17 came closest in 2002), and only two Hammerheads prospects have ever appeared among the top 20 (Tony Armas being the other, way back in 2000.)

#18 Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Jason Kubel (37), Stephen Drew (65), Justin Verlander (100), Johnny Gomes (129)
Unranked prospects: Cole Armstrong, Ian Bladergroen, Jake Blalock, Cory Dunlap, Ryan Langerhans, Mitch Maier, Nate McLouth, Cody Ross, Johnathan Barratt, Cliff Bartosh, Tyler Johnson, Michael Megrew, Chris Resop, Chris Saenz

Given this team's history, one of these pitching prospects is bound to turn into the next Pedro Martinez.  The question is: Which one?  I'm not even sure who most of these guys are, so hell if I know.  It has to be disconcerting when the #1 prospect on your farm is out for the year and your #2 prospect is apparently replicating his brother's holdout history.

#19 Wapakoneta Hippos
Ranked prospects: Erick Aybar (59), James Loney (72), Jon Papelbon (81), Glen Perkins (102), Hernan Iribarren (113), Ubaldo Jimenez (137), Tom Gorzelaney (141), Hayden Penn (149), Andrew Lerew (155)
Unranked prospects: Jeff Allison, Jon Connolly, Matt Peterson, Elizardo Ramirez, Joel Zumaya

Well, Bobby's going to kick all of our asses this year, but at least he has no farm club.  Then again, the Hippos have never ranked higher than #10 in this survey, yet in last month's Historical Farm Report, I showed that this franchise ranked #1 in terms of farm production over the past six years.  How can that be?  Well, there are some flaws to this particular survey.  First, the "experts" aren't always right.  Because of that, guys like Jason Bay (ranked #47 in last year's survey) and Albert Pujols (ranked #26 in 2001) are ranked much lower than they should be.  Secondly, this survey is only a snapshot in time.  It doesn't take into account mid-season pick-ups like Tim Hudson.  That said, at this very moment the Hippos own the 18th best farm club in the BDBL, according to the leading experts in the field.  If that gives you any comfort while you are getting spanked by Bonds, Pujols and Schmidt, then this whole exercise has been worthwhile, no?

#20 New Hope Badgers
Ranked prospects: Brian Anderson (46), Grady Sizemore (81), Yhency Brazoban (117), Jason Stokes (117), Javy Herrera (130), Sean Marshall (149)
Unranked prospects: Jamie D'Antona, Rajai Davis, Tony Giarratano, Eddy Martinez-Esteve, Brad Nelson, Danny Putnam, Kelly Shoppach, Travis Blackley, D.J. Houlton, Shaun Marcum, Scott Mitchinson, Mike Pelfrey, Chris Young

Rome wasn't built in a day, so it would be a bit much to ask for this franchise's farm system to rank higher than this after just one year of rebuilding.  I mean, we're talking about a franchise that once carried a dead guy on their farm roster for an entire season.  Baby steps seem appropriate.  Oddly enough, Sickels included Sizemore on his prospect list (the only expert to do so), yet he excluded Joe Mauer.  I'm sure that if the others had considered Sizemore, the Badgers would rank much higher.  As a matter of fact, the Badgers don't own one prospect that was ranked by all five of the experts on our panel.  Anderson was ranked by four of them, but excluded from Sickels' top 50 hitters list.  Brazoban was ranked only by Sickels (#50) and RotoWorld (#100).  Stokes was ranked only by BBA (#68).  And Marshall was ranked only by RotoWorld (#94.)  That can't be a good thing if the experts can't seem to come to a consensus over whether or not your prospects even belong on their list.

#21 Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Eric Duncan (27), Adrian Gonzalez (130)
Unranked prospects: Wladimir Balentien, Luis Soto, Jason Anderson, Matt Blank, Chadd Blasko, Mario Ramos, Dennis Sarfate, Steven Shell, Matt Smith, Taylor Tankersley, Billy Traber, Chien-Ming Wang

That's it; just two ranked players for the Swamp Rats.  And one of them has seen his prospect ranking fall from #16 two years ago to #130 today.  Some of the names on the list of unranked prospects make you wonder why they're still hanging around.  Anderson is now 25 years old and doesn't appear to be much of a prospect.  Traber missed all of last season with Tommy John surgery and doesn't seem to be worth a roster spot, either.  Ramos posted a 6.08 ERA in Triple-A last year and I doubt we'll be seeing him make a contribution to the Flamingos any time soon.  And I'm not even sure who Matt Smith is, but he can't be very good.  If there's a good reason to waste roster spots like this, I'll be damned if I know what it is.

#22 New Milford Blazers
Ranked prospects: Denny Bautista (75), Chad Orvella (95), Gio Gonzalez (97)
Unranked prospects: Trevor Plouffe, Jamal Strong, B.J. Szymanski, Yorman Bazardo, Andrew Brown, Carmen Cali, Travis Chick, Yovani Gallardo, Chuck James, Chris Lambert, Jay Rainville

Once upon a time, the New Milford Blazers owned one of the top five farm clubs in the BDBL for three years straight.  But that was way back when the Blazers sucked, and were able to capitalize on their suckitude by hanging out on the street corner at the deadline each year and accepting whatever prospect donations contending teams were willing to drop into their tin cup.  Now that they are proud members of the Contention Club, building a decent farm club isn't quite so easy, is it?  The Blazers currently own one top-75 prospect, and he just barely qualifies.  But it's not quite as bad as it may seem.  I personally have Orvella ranked in my top 40, and Plouffe and Rainville have quite a bit of upside potential.  And how cool is it to have two guys on your roster with names like "Yorman Bazardo" and "Yovani Gallardo?"

#23 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Juan Dominguez (110), Russ Adams (122), Mark Rogers (124), Freddy Lewis (137)
Unranked prospects: Michael Bourn, Robinson Cano, Chris Carter, Vito Chiaravalloti, Donnie Murphy, Fausto Carmona, Dana Eveland, Brad Halsey, Ryan Ketchner, Reynel Pinto, Francisco Rosario, Brad Sullivan

The defending champs don't own one top-100 prospect overall.  However, Sickels ranked Dominguez (#43) and Adams (#50) in his top 50, and Baseball America ranked Rogers (#55) and Lewis (#78) in their top 100.  Over the past year, the Infidels have traded Ervin Santana, Franklin Gutierrez, Erick Aybar and Nick Swisher without replenishing that lost talent through trading or free agency.  But if that was the price to pay for a trophy, I'd say it was a bargain.

#24 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Russ Martin (144), Josh Fields (151)
Unranked prospects: Tyler Greene, Anderson Machado, Jeff Salazar, Troy Tulowitzki, Brad Baker, Heath Bell, Justin Bristow, Marcos Carvajal, Jorge DePaula, Ryan Feierabend, Zach Putnam, Kyle Waldrop

After six years of ragging on the Cleveland Rocks farm system, I'm running out of jokes.  You can't get much more consistent (that is, consistently awful) than the Rocks' farm club.  In the six years I've been compiling this study, they've ranked #24, #24, #21, #24, #24 and #20.  As I've said every year at this time, even if you think scouting for prospects is a waste of time, because so many prospects don't reach expectations, it makes little sense to just throw away 15 roster spots, given that these players do have some trade value.

In the past, Cleveland has used their farm solely to stock it with players who can help out the following year.  For the most part, Mike Stein employs 20/20 hindsight to his full advantage and simply runs his finger down the most recent stats list, selecting any available pitcher with decent stats in a small sample size.  And for the most part, he's enjoyed some decent success doing this.  Players such as Ben Weber, Mark Malaska, Rafael Betancourt, Kiko Calero, Brendan Donnelly, Jeremy Affeldt and Brian Shouse were all acquired in this way.  Every once in a while, Stein can even get lucky and stumble upon a real gem using this method.  That happened in 2003, when Stein's finger landed on Brandon Webb, who happened to start his first major league game (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K) the day before the Chapter Three free agent pick-up period.  Needless to say, that gamble paid off big-time.

Oddly enough, however, the Rocks were one of the only teams not to pick up any farm free agents at the Chapter Four deadline last year.  And Stein's distrust of unproven prospects (which clearly played a role in his recent Schmidt trade) makes his farm draft picks this winter highly unusual, as four of his ten picks were spent on high school pitchers and defense-minded college shortstops.  As a group, prospects don't get much riskier than that.  It certainly is difficult to get inside the mind of Mike Stein, isn't it?