April, 2006

Youth is Served

"The whole 'farm' analysis implies who's got the best young talent. But as soon as a guy is good enough to get a few months in the majors he's off that list. Dropping your farm rating. No longer a prospect. Even if he's two years younger than someone in the minors at the top of the list. Too many arbitrary distinctions. Too much subjectivity. Too stupidly volatile."
-- Brian Potraka, 2/26

Coincidentally enough, I ran across almost the exact same quote while devouring the new 2006 Baseball Prospectus recently:

"One problem in using top prospect lists to evaluate farm systems is that it punishes teams for having developed players successfully and seeing them graduate to the major league level.  The Dodgers, for example, have a highly regarded list of prospects, but virtually no worthwhile young talent in the majors.  Chad Billingsley might be a good prospect, but the Dodgers would trade him in a heartbeat for Harden, Swisher, Street, Joe Blanton or Danny Haren-- none of whom is older than 25, and all but one of whom has spent his entire career in the A's system.  Along the same lines, while the A's present top prospect list consists mostly of hitting talent-- Dallas Braden and Jairo Garcia are the only pitchers that would crack the organization's Top 10 --this is only because of the successful matriculations of the top-flight arms."

Great minds think alike, eh?

The Baseball Prospectus article continued by summing the projected 2006 VORPs of all 25-and-under players on every MLB team to show that the Oakland A's have some of the best young talent in the game, even though their farm system currently doesn't rank very highly.

Every study has its purpose, and the purpose of the BDBL farm report is to measure the strength of a team's farm club relative to the other teams in the league.  But I can also appreciate Brian's (and BBP's) perspective that our farm report doesn't truly reflect a team's "young" talent.

So, with that in mind, I thought it would interesting and/or fun to go through the same exercise with our teams as BBP did with the big boys.  Of course, there are issues with every study, and one of the issues with this one is that we're looking at projected 2006 VORP-- the keyword there being "projected."  If you don't value PECOTA's projections, chances are you're not going to value this study.

BBP gave PECOTA a major facelift this past year in an effort to make their projections of minor leaguers more meaningful.  I won't get into all the details here.  (If you want the details, buy the book!)  But suffice it to say, I'm comfortable using these projections, and you should be, too.  No projection system is flawless, but PECOTA provides a reasonable-enough picture of the future, given all the statistics and history available to us today.

All 2006 VORP projections are Major League Equivalents.  So, for example, when they project that Lastings Milledge will post a 9.3 VORP in 502 PA's in 2006, they don't mean that's what he will do in a full season of Triple-A this season; they mean that's what he would do if all 502 PA's came in the big leagues this year.  So if we measure only 2006 VORP, we're only getting a picture of how valuable our young players are right now-- not how valuable they may be down the road.

Obviously, this method isn't all that fair to high-upside prospects in the lower levels of the minor leagues.  That's why I'm also including in my study a new Prospectus stat (yep, just what we all need: a new stat) called "Upside."  Again, I'm not going to go into detail about what Upside means or how it is calculated.  You can get that here.

Unfortunately, PECOTA can't forecast VORP or Upside for players with very little or no professional experience, so guys like Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Mike Pelfrey, Luke Hochevar, Ian Kennedy, etc., aren't included in this study.  But hey, no study is perfect, right?

Everyone understand the ground rules?  Okay, enough of the preamble (or pre-ramble.)  Let's begin.

#1 Villanova Mustangs
25-and-under players: Chad Billingsley, Joe Blanton, Brian Bruney, Jesse Crain, Dana Eveland, Gio Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Rich Harden, James Houser, Dustin McGowan, Troy Patton, Anthony Swarzak, Adam Wainwright, Dontrelle Willis, Ryan Doumit, Andre Ethier, Curtis Granderson, Chris Iannetta, Casey Kotchman, Andy Marte, Brian McCann, Kevin Melillo, Jeremy Reed, Chris Snyder, Nick Swisher, Matt Tuiasosopo

No big surprise here.  Tony Chamra collects young ballplayers like lungs collect oxygen.  The Mustangs ranked #1 in our farm survey a year ago, and that rating is reflected here.  Not surprisingly, 26 players on Villanova's 45-man roster are age 25 and under-- a league-high.  Two of those players-- McCann and Marte --have upside scores over 200, while seven others have upside scores above the century mark.  Unfortunately for 'Nova, one of those players is Greinke, who ain't exactly looking like a lock to fulfill his potential at this point.  In terms of VORP, both Willis (38.4) and Harden (37.8) are projected to have big years in 2006.  No other player owns a VORP over 30.

#2 Corona Confederates
25-and-under players: Abe Alvarez, Josh Banks, Jose Capellan, Noah Lowry, Brett Myers, Clint Nageotte, Jeff Niemann, Leo Nunez, Ian Snell, Doug Waechter, Jerome Williams, Wily Aybar, Jeff Baker, Ryan Braun, Jay Bruce, Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, Brendan Harris, Howie Kendrick, Joe Mauer, Marcus Sanders, Vince Sinisi, Brandon Snyder, Taylor Teagarden

PECOTA loves Howie Kendrick more than Billy Baseball loves spaghetti (and Billy Baseball really likes spaghetti.)  Kendrick, Mauer and Fielder all own Upside scores over 200, which is a pretty impressive feat for one team.  Among all BDBL teams, Corona ranks #1 in Upside from hitters alone (1301.4 total among 13 hitters.)  Myers (128.6) is the only other player on this list with an Upside score in triple digits.  Interestingly, all four players came to the Confederates via trade.  In terms of VORP, Mauer (33.9), Kendrick (36.1!) and Myers (35.8) are all projected to have big years.  Corona has ranked #3, #5 and #6 in our past three farm surveys, so this method appears to be a better gauge of their young talent.  However, much of Corona's total Upside value is due to sheer volume.  Corona ranks #2 among all BDBL teams in number of 25-and-under players (24.)  If you take the average Upside per player, Corona's ranking falls to #6.

#3 Kansas Law Dogs
25-and-under players: Brian Bannister, Ambiorex Burgos, Zach Duke, Gavin Floyd, Shane Lindsay, Ryan Madson, Dan Meyer, Greg Miller, Anthony Reyes, Jason Vargas, Chris Volstad, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones, Andy LaRoche, Chris Lubanski, Jeff Mathis, Brad Snyder, Ryan Sweeney, Brandon Wood, David Wright

That last name on the list above skews the numbers just a little.  Without Wright, the Law Dogs would have a total Upside of 1173, which would put them at #7 in the league.  Fortunately for Kansas fans, Wright isn't in danger of bursting into flames any time soon.  Wright's Upside score of 424.6 ranks second only to Miguel Cabrera among 25-and-unders.  Aside from Wright, Kansas owns three others with Upside scores in the triple digits: Wood (161.2), Duke (131.4) and Jones (130.2).

#4 South Carolina Sea Cats
25-and-under players: Scott Baker, Matt Capps, Gustavo Chacin, Chuck James, Jon Lester, Kameron Loe, Yusmeiro Petit, Andy Sisco, Etanislao Abreu, Wes Bankston, Josh Barfield, Hank Blalock, Reid Brignac, Brent Clevlen, Brad Harman, Justin Huber, Brandon Jones, Ian Kinsler, Dave Krynzel, Lastings Milledge, Matt Murton, Eric Reed

The Sea Cats ranked #5 in this year's farm survey, so this ranking doesn't come as much of a shock.  However, much of this ranking relies on quantity over quality.  With 22 players at age 25-and-under, the Sea Cats rank third in the league.  The average Upside of this group is just 67.7, good for 10th in the league.  The biggest surprise here is that Blalock still qualifies as 25-and-under.  It seems as though he's been labeled a "promising young player" longer than Arnold Schwartzeneggar has been labeled an "action hero."  In this survey, he leads the Sea Cats with an Upside of 190.3.  Kinsler, Barfield, Petit, Huber and Milledge are also members of the century club.  Although it's hard to figure how Milledge's Upside is so high when his top three comparables are Ruben Mateo, Will Smith and Jason Pridie.

#5 Allentown Ridgebacks
25-and-under players: Bear Bay, Clay Buchholz, Jesse Foppert, Dan Haigwood, Felix Hernandez, Jake Peavy, Andrew Sonnanstine, Jermaine Van Buren, Billy Butler, Ronny Cedeno, Travis Denker, Elijah Dukes, Ryan Garko, Ruben Gotay, Kelly Johnson, Eduardo Nunez

The Ridgebacks ranked just 13th in this year's farm survey, but they rank #5 here.  Evidently, adding Felix Hernandez and Jake Peavy to the ledger has made a little bit of difference.  Among all 25-and-under pitchers in baseball, can you guess where Hernandez and Peavy rank?  Yep, that's right: #1 and #2.  Sickening, ain't it?  The list of top three comparables for those two are pretty good: Bert Blyleven, Jim Palmer and Curt Simmons for Hernandez, and Camilo Pascual, Kevin Appier and Pedro Martinez for Peavy.  Thanks to those two, the Ridgebacks rank #2 in the BDBL in Upside among pitchers only.  And if you look at the teams based on average Upside, Allentown ranks #1.

#6 Manchester Irish Rebels
25-and-under players: Matt Cain, Scott Elberts, Clint Everts, Jeff Francis, Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, Adam Loewen, Deric Barton, Miguel Cabrera, Eric Campbell, Joey Gathright, Pedro Lopez, Jed Lowrie, Nick Markakis, Andrew McCutchen, Wily Mo Pena, Jarrod Saltalamacchia

The Irish Rebels have ranked #2 and #3 in our last two farm surveys, so it's no surprise to see them here in the top ten.  What is surprising is that, despite their reputation for having a ton of pitching on the farm, Manchester's hitters actually rank higher (#3) than their pitchers (#11).  Of course, the reason for that is a guy named Cabrera.  As mentioned earlier, Cabrera ranks #1 among all 25-and-under players in Upside, with a score of 464.1.  His top three comparables are pretty decent players: Frank Robinson, Albert Pujols and Greg Luzinski.  Let's just hope he's more like "The Bull" and less like "The Judge."  Boston's newest acquisition, Pena, clocks in with a surprising 203.9 Upside score.  Jarrod "Hot for Teacher" Saltalablabla scores 137.0, and Barton scores a 103.4.  On the pitching side, no pitcher scores in triple digits, though Kazmir (96.3) and Cain (95.0) come close.

#7 Chicago Black Sox
25-and-under players: Jeremy Bonderman, Lance Cormier, Craig Hansen, Mark Prior, Chris Seddon, Sean Tracey, Carlos Zambrano, Joaquin Arias, Jose Castillo, Victor Diaz, Nick Hundley, Conor Jackson, John Mayberry, Dustin Pedroia, Brayan Pena, Felix Pie, Jason Repko, Sergio Santos, Kurt Suzuki

The Black Sox gained 222.9 points of Upside thanks to their recent biannual white-flag tag sale.  Zambrano tops the Black Sox 25-and-under set, followed closely by PECOTA favorite Pedroia (220.2), Prior (195.0) and Bonderman (131.1).  Pedroia's top three comparables are a little hard to believe: Gary Sheffield, Ron Hunt and Marcus Giles.  This explains why his Upside is so high.  Giles, I could buy.  But Sheffield??  Unless he starts rooming with Victor Conte, I don't see Pedroia ever posting Sheffield-like power numbers.  Pie's #1 comparable is all too familiar to Cubs fans: Corey Patterson.  Prior's top two comparables-- Don Wilson and Erik Hanson --should frighten Cubs fans as well.  Wilson was out of baseball by age 30, and Hanson was washed up by age 31.

#8 Los Altos Undertakers
25-and-under players: Jon Broxton, Edwin Jackson, Josh Johnson, Adam Miller, Mark Rogers, Jeremy Sowers, Tim Stauffer, Rob Tejeda, Jered Weaver, John Buck, Jeff Clement, Brian Dopirak, Jeff Fiorentino, Franklin Gutierrez, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Harvey, Jeremy Hermida, Hunter Pence, Alexis Rios, Rickie Weeks

The #1 team in our farm survey ranks #8 in this study.  A big reason for that is Justin Upton's exclusion from the list.  Surprisingly, although the Undertakers are known for having great pitching in their farm system, the Los Altos 25-and-under pitchers rank just 16th out of 24 teams.  Sowers tops the list with an Upside of only 65.8.  No other pitcher tops 50.  A little larger sample size from Weaver, and an injury-free year from Miller, would go a long way toward improving that ranking.  On the hitting side, Weeks tops the list with an Upside of 220.0, followed by Hermida (157.8), Hardy (143.4) and, surprisingly, Gutierrez (100.8).  Again, a small sample size hurts Clements' projection.  As I mentioned in the farm report, most of Los Altos' talent is still years away from making an impact in the BDBL.  This is reflected by a #12 ranking in 2006 VORP.

#9 Ravenswood Infidels
25-and-under players: Fausto Carmona, Phil Dumatrait, Scott Olsen, Renyel Pinto, Darrell Rasner, Francisco Rosario, Chin-Hui Tsao, Russ Adams, Robinson Cano, Edwin Encarnacion, George Kottaras, Fred Lewis, Donnie Murphy, Brandon Phillips, Richie Robnett, Sean Rodriguez, Nate Schierholtz, Chris Snelling, Curtis Thigpen, Joey Votto

The Infidels rise 15 places from their last-place showing in the Farm Report, justifying Brian's quote, which kicked off this whole exercise.  The addition of Encarnacion (180.1 Upside) helps, and PECOTA is much more optimistic about Snelling (191.7) than Baseball America, BBP, or any of the other contributors to the farm report.  Cano (129.5) clocks in with a triple-digit Upside, as does (surprisingly) little Donnie Murphy (116.1).  Oddly enough, no Infidel pitcher owns an Upside over 55.  Carmona (52.8) leads all Ravenswood pitchers, while the newly-acquired Olsen checks in at just 42.3.  As such, Ravenswood ranks just #21 out of 24 teams in total pitching Upside.

#10 Atlanta Fire Ants
25-and-under players: Bryan Bullington, Chad Cordero, Kyle Davies, Wade Davis, Jorge de la Rosa, Adam Harben, Gabby Hernandez, Jair Jurrjens, Ricky Nolasco, Koby Clemens, Jeff Francoeur, Maicer Izturis, Mike Jacobs, Paul McAnulty, Chris McConnell, Brandon Moss, Guillermo Quiroz, Brandon Sing, Delwyn Young

The Fire Ants ranked #10 in the Farm Report a year ago, thanks to the presence of Francoeuer; and with him back on the radar, they jump back to #10.  He leads the Fire Ants youngsters with an Upside of 144.2, followed by Jacobs (129.3) and Young (121.2).  The highest Upside among Atlanta pitchers is Cordero, at just 51.8.  6 of the 19 players listed above are age 25, so they just barely make the cut.  Clemens' top three comparables are pretty interesting: Pete Rose, Jr., Dale Berra and John Henry Williams.

#11 Nashville Funkadelic
25-and-under players: Jay Bergman, Todd Coffey, Mike Hinckley, Tyler Johnson, Wilson Betemit, Michael Bourn, Jorge Cantu, Rajai Davis, Yunel Escobar, Chin-Lung Hu, Eddy Martinez-Esteve, Jose Reyes, Jason Stokes, Chris Young

The best 25-and-under pitcher on the Funkadelic roster (according to PECOTA) is Coffey-- a guy the Funk just picked up off the free agent scrap heap (my #2 pick, dammit!)  Coffey checks in with an Upside of 62.8.  No other pitcher owns up Upside over 27.  Not surprisingly, Nashville ranks #22 in the league in pitching Upside.  But don't cry for them.  Help is on the way.  What the Funk lack in young pitching, they make up for in young hitting: Young (212.9), Cantu (165.2), Reyes (143.9) and Stokes (123.0) all cracked the 100 mark.

#12 New Hope Badgers
25-and-under players: James Barthmaier, Travis Blackley, Daniel Cabrera, Bobby Jenks, Shaun Marcum, Sean Marshall, Jordan Tata, Brian Anderson, Melky Cabrera, Chris Denorfia, Tony Giarratano, Travis Hanson, Anderson Hernandez, Javier Herrera, Omar Infante, Ben Johnson, Danny Putnam, Ryan Raburn, Grady Sizemore

With Sizemore (231.9) back in the mix, the Badgers jump from #17 in our farm report to #12 in our "young players" report.  Six of the above players are 25 years old, so this will be the last year Cabrera (56.3) and Jenks (36.1) appear on this report.  New Hope is ranked #19 in terms of pitchers Upside, #9 in hitters Upside and #8 in 2006 VORP.  The VORP ranking makes a lot of sense, given that Cabrera, Jenks and Sizemore have already arrived, and are each making an impact on the Badgers roster.

#13 Southern Cal Slyme
25-and-under players: Collin Balester, Joey Devine, Brad Halsey, Phil Humber, Sergio Mitre, C.C. Sabathia, Anibal Sanchez, Ervin Santana, Robert Andino, Blake DeWitt, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dioner Navarro, Hanley Ramirez, Willy Taveras, Ryan Zimmerman

If PECOTA were a woman (or a man living in Massachusetts, Vermont or California), PECOTA would marry Ryan Zimmerman.  Mrs. PECOTA Zimmerman foresees big things for her husband, including a 245.8 Upside and comparables to Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau and Joe Torre.  And at just 21 years of age, Zimmerman (Ryan, that is) still has four years of eligibility remaining in this study.  After Zimmerman, the next four highest Upside scores on the Slyme belong to Navarro (131.7), Sabathia (109.3 ), Ramirez (100.3) and Santana (72.6.)

#14 Akron R�che
25-and-under players: Blaine Boyer, Seth McClung, Manny Parra, Justin Verlander, Jake Blalock, Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, Jason Kubel, Mitch Maier, Nate McLouth, Jhonny Peralta

I can't help but wonder what Jhonny Pheralta's Upside score was last year before his big coming-out party.  This year, it's 232.1, which places him #10 among all players 25-and-under.  His Upside score is higher than Grady Sizemore, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Andy Marte, Hank Blalock, Brandon Wood, Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Mark Prior and Dontrelle Willis, among many others.  Gomes (179.2) and Drew (103.8) are the only two other members of the triple digit club on the Ryche, though Verlander (99.8) is awfully close.  In terms of average Upside, Akron ranks #5 in the BDBL.

#15 Bear Country Jamboree
25-and-under players: Homer Bailey, Travis Bowyer, Bill Bray, Chris Britton, Tyler Clippard, John Danks, Chad Gaudin, Jason Hirsch, Francisco Liriano, Paul Maholm, Ricky Romero, Merkin Valdez, Endninson Volquez, Alberto Callaspo, Corey Hart, Matt Kemp, Kendry Morales, Matt Moses, Cliff Pennington

The Jamboree may have the #3 farm system in the league according to the greatest prospect pundits of the modern era, but they rank just 15th in terms of young talent.  The reason is pretty simple: PECOTA factors in a lot more risk for young A-ball hurlers than Baseball America.  Bailey (42.2), Hirsch (31.1), Danks (28.8) and Volquez (11.9) hardly factor at all in this study, due to the fact that they've had little experience above A-ball.  And Mark Pawalek (the #67 prospect in baseball in our farm study) doesn't even warrant a PECOTA projection yet.  Bear Country's #1 prospect in the farm report, Liriano (118.9), ranks #2 in Upside in this study, behind Hart (124.8).  Morales (113.0) is the only other member of the century club.

#16 Silicon Valley CyberSox
25-and-under players: Craig Breslow, J.D. Durbin, Danny Haren, Ben Hendrickson, Eric Hurley, Casey Janssen, David Purcey, Huston Street, Travis Buck, Nelson Cruz, Josh Flores, Travis Ishikawa, Jose Lopez, Dallas McPherson, Yadier Molina, Laynce Nix, Omar Quintanilla

Haren's Upside is 96.7-- just slightly under Zach Greinke's Upside of 101.8.  Something tells me that will change in a hurry.  McPherson (167.4) and Lopez (147.0) are the only two to crack the 100 Upside mark.  McPherson's comps are a little scary: Nick Esasky, Dave Kingman and Jay Buhner.  *GULP!*

#17 Great Lakes Sphinx
25-and-under players: David Aardsma, Denny Bautista, Boof Bonser, Fernando Cabrera, Thomas Diamond, Sean Gallagher, John Maine, Juan Mateo, Dustin Moseley, Chad Orvella, Joel Guzman, Miguel Montero, Justin Morneau, Brad Nelson, Mark Teahen

The Sphinx's young pitchers rank #1 in this study...alphabetically.  Actually, this team's best young pitcher (according to PECOTA) is Gallagher, whose top three comps are Travis Foley, Gil Meche and Wes Anderson.  (Ouch.)  Great Lakes' best young hitter is Guzman (175.6), followed closely by Morneau (152.8).

#18 Salem Cowtippers
25-and-under players: Jeremy Accardo, Marcos Carvajal, Garrett Mock, Chris Ray, Chris Resop, Ryan Wagner, Yuniesky Betancourt, Sean Burroughs, Carlos Quentin, Ian Stewart, B.J. Upton

Finally!  I was beginning to think I'd left my team out of the study by accident.  The problem here is a shortage of young players.  With just 11 players at age 25 and under, the 'Tippers rank next to last in the league.  But those 11 players average an Upside of 68.2, which ranks #9 in the league.  Okay, I feel a little better now.  This team's best young pitcher is Carvajal (okay, I feel depressed again), with an Upside score of 99.3 (wow!)  Upton (307.1) owns the best Upside score of any young player in baseball not named Cabrera or Wright.  After Upton, though, the scores plummet to 72.9 (Quentin) and 59.0 (Stewart.)  Obviously, Stewart's score was hurt a bit by his poor first half last year.  It's hard to believe Burroughs still qualifies for this list, but there he is, with an Upside score of 23.5.  Thanks for contributing, Sean.

#19 Sylmar Padawans
25-and-under players: Sean Burnett, Richie Gardner, Jason Hammel, Brandon League, Macay McBride, Brandon McCarthy, Vince Perkins, Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathan Sanchez, Chuck Tiffany, Jake Woods, Matt Bush, Shane Costa, Carl Crawford, Brad Eldred, Miguel Perez, Rene Rivera, Neil Walker

True to form, 11 of Sylmar's 18 young players are pitchers.  Of those 11, Rodriguez (137.5) owns the biggest Upside.  In fact, Rodriguez owns the biggest Upside of any young reliever in baseball, and is the only reliever ranked among the top 15.  (Marcos Carvajal is the next best reliever on the list, believe it or not.  Huston Street is the next best "true" reliever, with an Upside of only 75.4.)  McCarthy clocks in with an Upside of 94.1.  Then, there's a huge drop-off to Hammel at 38.8.  On the hitting side, Crawford (102.0) is the only one to break triple digits.

#20 New Milford Blazers
25-and-under players: Yorman Bazardo, Dallas Braden, Luis Cota, Brandon Erbe, Scott Feldman, Yovani Gallardo, Mike Gosling, J.P. Howell, Hong-Chi Kuo, Chris Lambert, Wil Ledezma, Franquelis Osoria, Jae-Kuk Ryu, Joe Saunders, Brad Thompson, C.J. Wilson, Jose Bautista, Aaron Hill, Val Majewski, Eric Patterson, Nolan Reimold

Those good ol' boys from Cow Milford have taken the quantity-over-quality approach to building a pitching staff this year.  With SIXTEEN pitchers age 25 and under, New Milford leads the league.  Unfortunately for them, PECOTA doesn't see a lot of upside potential for any of them at this point, as the Blazers rank dead-last in average Upside (33.6.)  Oddly enough, the best young pitcher on the New Milford roster, according to PECOTA, is the 18-year-old Erbe (63.4), who has just 30.1 professional innings-- all in short-season rookie ball --under his belt.  This is what sometimes happens when you plug small sample sizes into a tool as complex as PECOTA.   New Milford owns just five hitters at age 25 and under.  Of those five, Hill (93.2) owns the biggest Upside score, followed by Majewski (81.7) and Patterson (76.5).

#21 Marlboro Hammerheads
25-and-under players: Manny Delcarmen, Armando Galarraga, Phil Hughes, Scott Mathieson, Fernando Nieve, Justin Orenduff, Michael Aubrey, Jason Botts, Larry Broadway, Greg Golson, Scott Moore, Ron Paulino, Robert Valido, Shane Victorino

If it weren't for the scorched-Earth policy of the Hammerheads front office, the team would rank a bit higher with the inclusion of Carlos Zambrano.  But seeing as the Hammerheads will get a BDBL championship out of it (at least, that's what Sharky tells me), then I guess having a low ranking in this little study is a pretty cheap price to pay.  With an Upside of 131.3, Hughes is the most valuable youngster on the Hammerheads roster.  No other player cracks 100, though (inexplicably) Botts (96.6) comes close.

#22 Wapakoneta Hippos
25-and-under players: Jeff Allison, Jimmy Gobble, Tom Gorzelanny, Ubaldo Jimenez, Anthony Lerew, Mark McCormick, Dustin Nippert, Jon Papelbon, Hayden Penn, Elizardo Ramirez, Joel Zumaya, Erick Aybar, Hernan Iribarren, James Loney, Colby Rasmus

Sorry, Bobby, but Albert just misses the age cut-off.  (Of course, if Albert were going by his real age, he would've missed the cut about five years ago!)  The Hippos ranked #9 in our farm survey, but fall to #22 here.  Why?  Beats me.  PECOTA doesn't seem to like Papelbon (ranked #35 in our farm report, but with an Upside of only 32.4), Nippert (#66/17.1), Penn (#71/39.7) or Lerew (#96/28.1) nearly as much as the prospect mavens.  PECOTA is high, however, on Aybar (161.2) and Zumaya (80.2.)

#23 Las Vegas Flamingos
25-and-under players: Lance Broadway, Cesar Carillo, Zach Jackson, Dennis Sarfate, Taylor Tankersley, Wladimir Balentien, Eric Duncan, Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Headley, Delmon Young

The #1 prospect in baseball owns an Upside of 247.3-- the seventh-highest Upside among young players in baseball.  Young's top three comps: Cesar Cedeno, Ken Griffey (Sr., I assume) and Tony Conigliaro.  Unfortunately for Vegas, there isn't much else to talk about here.

#24 Cleveland Rocks
25-and-under players: Sean Henn, Ray Liotta, Oliver Perez, Mike Costanzo, Josh Fields, Tyler Greene, John Jaso, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Russ Martin, Mike Morse, Jeff Salazar, Troy Tulowitzki

...and bringing up the rear, once again, is the Rocks.  Cleveland finished last in our farm survey in four out of seven years, and have never finished higher than #19, so this is no big surprise.  The Rocks rank #21 among hitters Upside, #24 among pitchers, #23 in 2006 VORP and #23 in average Upside.  So there's really no positive spin to put on this one.  It is what it is.