From the Desk of the Commish

Despite all the talk from a year ago, this year's auction class ranks as the weakest in auction history in terms of total VORP:

The top of the draft is very strong. Johan Santana is the 10th-best free agent in auction history (in terms of VORP), and is in the prime of his career at 27 years old. And no auction class to date has had two pitchers the caliber of Santana and Chris Carpenter. Add John Smoltz to that group, and you've got three Cy Young-caliber pitchers in one auction.

In addition, there are several MVP-caliber hitters, including David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Jermaine Dye, Carlos Guillen, Miguel Tejada and Chipper Jones. In fact, if you look only at the top ten players in the auction, this class doesn't look bad at all (especially when you consider that Barry Bonds accounted for 147.4 and 144.4 VORP points in 2003 and 2005):

Where this auction class really gets ugly is at the bottom. Four of the six worst players (in terms of VORP) ever to appear in the auction are in this year's class. (Only Brian Boehringer in 2003 and Shawn Chacon in 2004 were worse than the quartet of Adrian Beltre, Juan Pierre, A.J. Pierzynski and Scott Hatteberg.) Add in Solomon Torres and Morgan Ensberg, and you've got six of the top ten worst free agents in auction history. Add Greg Norton, Darren Oliver, Luis Castillo and Ty Wigginton, and you've got 10 of the sixteen worst free agents in auction history. You get the picture.

Up to now, the 2006 auction class was the worst in league history. But the draft class (Barry Bonds, Jason Schmidt, Curt Schilling, Javier Vazquez, Scott Rolen, etc.) was so strong, it made up for any weaknesses in the auction, and gave people something to look forward to in January. Can we depend on this year's draft class to pick up the slack just as much?

There is virtually no one remaining in the draft class who would be considered an "impact player." Brian Giles, Tim Hudson, Aubrey Huff, Jose Vidro, Duaner Sanchez, Ruddy Lugo and Ken Griffey, Jr. are pretty much the cream of the crop.

In terms of players with potential 2008 value, Pedro Martinez, Marcus Giles, Eric Chavez, David Eckstein, Trot Nixon, Jose Cantu, Brad Lidge, Jason Varitek and Kerry Wood are probably the best of the lot.

With 2007 being the first year of the $7.5 million round, speculation is that someone will use one of those picks to snag Martinez. But other than Pedro, it is difficult to justify spending $5 million or more on any of these players. More than ever before, having an early draft pick is not much of an advantage.

All we've heard for weeks now is how much free cash is floating around out there this year. How does this year rank with past years?

Year	Total cash available	# of free agents needed	Cash per player	$ spent in auction
2003	$557.1m	360	$1.55m	$328.5m (59%)
2004	$606.2m	343	$1.77m	$363.5m (60%)
2005	$498.2m	292	$1.71m	$318m (64%)
2006	$621.3m	327	$1.90m	$341.5 (55%)
2007	$569.0m	296	$1.92m	??

Yep, there's a lot of money out there, all right. In terms of dollars per player, we've set a new record. Combine that with the worst draft class in league history, and you have the perfect recipe for careless overspending.

Last year, we set several auction records and 37 out of the 50 free agents were made "Type H" players (tying a record.) But auction prices were somewhat deflated by a very strong draft class. Teams held off on spending big money in the auction, choosing to save that money for the draft instead. But with such a pathetic draft class, don't expect to see that pattern repeated this year.

My prediction is that almost each one of those names on that list to the right goes for $1-$3 million above his DFV. With so much money to spend, and so few worthy players to spend it on, it almost makes fiscal sense to drastically overpay for the best of this group -- especially if you plan on competing this year.

Compared to past years, this year's auction class is relatively risk-free. Santana and Carpenter are in the primes of their careers. Smoltz is getting up there in age, but is showing no sign of collapse. Tejada, Abreu, Ortiz, Dye, Ramirez, Jones, Durham, Delgado, Lee and Helton are about as consistent as it gets in baseball. And Guillen has quietly had three good seasons in a row now.

Sheets and Drew are always injury risks, but they also have considerable upside. Maddux and Rogers are on the wrong side of 40, and Radke is an old 34. But Radke has already retired, and Maddux and Rogers don't seem to be slowing down.

Zito just moved to the National League, and into a nice pitcher's ballpark, so he carries little risk as well. Jennings doesn't have a dominant track record, but he's still young and has room to grow.

The rest of the group consists of players who probably shouldn't be signed to more than $5 million, but probably will be, anyway. They'll be one-year contributors, then likely will become one-year albatrosses.

In terms of total spending money, everyone knows the Hammerheads lead the pack, with $48.4 million. But having a lot of money to spend doesn't guarantee success. Just ask the 2006 Wapakoneta Hippos, who had a BDBL-record $52.5 million to spend in last year's draft, but finished with a .500 record. With Marlboro reportedly focused on rebuilding (at least, for now), they will probably spend the bulk of that money on players with probable '08 value, and will undoubtedly use their #1 tie-breaker to be as much of a nuisance as possible to the rest of the league.

In terms of total spending dollars, the Allentown Ridgebacks ($41.8m) are #2, followed by Los Altos ($37.8m), Manchester ($35.9m) and Nashville ($34.4m.) The Ridgebacks are somewhat of a wild card at this point. With so many holes to fill on their roster, it is unlikely that they'll be spending big bucks on any one player. But you never know. Those last three teams, however, are particularly scary, because they already have good teams in place before they even spend a dime.

The Undertakers need only a couple of outfielders, a starting pitcher and maybe a couple of middle relievers. And they have $37.8 million to spend on just 9 players! They could easily sign Johan Santana and Manny Ramirez, and still have plenty of money left over for that #4 outfielder or middle reliever.

The Irish Rebels' pitching staff is pretty much set. All they need is a catcher, first baseman, second baseman and a corner outfielder. With $35.9 million to spend, that should be enough to fill those holes pretty well.

The Funkadelic have $34.4 million to spend, and only 8 positions on their roster to fill. They'll be competing with Manchester for the rights to Ivan Rodriguez, and with third base open, you could probably order your Nashville jersey with the "C.Jones" stitched into the back right now. More than anything, though, the Funk need pitching. Expect to see some BIG bucks thrown toward the groundball-pitching Carpenter, who would be the perfect fit in Nashville's homer haven.

And don't forget about the Kansas Law Dogs. The 'Dogs only have $19.3 million to spend, but they have only 6 spots on their 35-man roster to fill. That's an average of $3.2 million per player, which ranks behind only the Funk, Undertakers and Atlanta Fire Ants. The Kansas pitching staff and infield are pretty much set (though they could use an upgrade over Grudzy at second.) All they need are two corner outfielders, and there are plenty of good ones available in the top half of the auction.

Well, as of this writing, Milton Bradley, Rafael Furcal, Pat Burrell, Billy Wagner, Magglio Ordonez, Aramis Ramirez, Jim Edmonds, Travis Hafner, Mark Buehrle, Jeff Kent, Paul Konerko, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Jason Giambi, Andy Pettitte, Michael Young, Randy Johnson, Mark Mulder, Brad Penny, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Jorge Posada, Brian Roberts, Troy Glaus, Freddy Garcia, Curt Schilling, Mike Cameron, Brett Myers, Nick Johnson and Gary Sheffield look to be the best of the lot. Talk about a mixed bag.

Oh, and we'll also do the Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds Sweepstakes all over again -- which is always fun.

2007 Draft Day Preview