January, 2008

2008 Draft Day Preview

It's that time of year again.  Let the fiscal insanity begin.

How does this year's auction class compare to the rest?

It's an unfair comparison, really, given that we've changed the formula that determines who will be in the auction.  Now that we're counting the past three years, a few players with poor 2007 MLB seasons will be in this year's auction class -- including one guy with a negative VORP.  That said, here are the raw numbers:

2003: 2006.9
2004: 2210.3
2005: 2155.9
2006: 1903.2
2007: 1858.0
2008: 1522.4

As expected, this is the weakest auction class we've ever had.  However, it's not only because of the formula change.  Even without that change, this is a very weak class.  We can get a better handle on this year's class by looking only at the top ten.  That way, we're comparing apples to apples:

2003: 729.6
2004: 680.8
2005: 762.0
2006: 621.8
2007: 654.2
2008: 579.5

As you can see, there isn't much "star power" in this year's free agent class.  And the news gets worse.  Not only is this the weakest auction class in league history, but it's also the oldest:

2003: 31.6
2004: 30.9
2005: 31.8
2006: 32.3
2007: 31.4
2008: 33.2

Believe it or not, this year's auction class includes SIX players aged 40 or older.  That's more than one entire auction lot, filled with geezers!

What about the draft class?

Because of the rule change, the draft class includes several "one-year wonders" who excelled in MLB '07, but hadn't done enough in previous years to warrant inclusion in the auction.  The top ten draft free agents in terms of VORP:

1. Lee Gardner (28.9)
2. David Riske (27.7)
3. Kyle Kendrick (27.1)
4. Ron Mahay (24.5)
5. Scott Downs (24.0)
6. Mark Ellis (23.9)
7. Tim Redding (19.4)
8. David Weathers (18.5)
9. Jayson Werth (18.3)
10. Troy Percival (18.2)

Not surprisingly, most of those guys are relievers (who tend to be one-year wonders by trade.)  The bad news for this year's draft class is that the usual crop of injured superstars is now up for grabs in the auction, leaving little behind for rebuilding teams to take as fliers for the future.

The best of that group probably includes Jason Schmidt, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson (another one on the wrong side of 40), Rick Ankiel, Coco Crisp, Kevin Millwood, Jim Edmonds and Eric Chavez.

How much money is out there this year?

I'm sorry to say, the news only gets worse.  Not only is this the weakest -- and oldest --draft class in league history, but there is a ton of money available to be spent:

The reason for this is that every year, teams sign fewer and fewer players to contracts.  Yes, the "One-Year-Rental" strategy has truly flourished in recent years:

What is happening is quite interesting.  As you can see, fewer players became eligible for free agency this season than in any past season -- and by a significant margin, too.  Normally, you'd think this means that more players were signed to long-term contracts.  But look at the last column, and you'll see that fewer players owned long-term contracts in 2007 than in any other season -- again, by quite a large margin.  In fact, you can see that this number steadily decreased in six out of the past seven years.

More and more, it seems that teams are opting to toss aside cost certainty and the potential of locking in players at below-market salaries in exchange for risk avoidance.  Players are picked up for one year, used up, and then tossed back on the pile.  Since the first year is a "freebie" in terms of performance-certainty, there is almost no risk for the team, except for the Type H players.  And until now, most teams were more than willing to take a one-year risk in exchange for one year of certain impact performance.

Of course, that little loophole is about to close.  Which leads to the next question...

How will the new "Type-H" rules change free agency?

That is the big question this off-season, isn't it?  Unfortunately, it is impossible to answer.  Last year, several elements came together to form a "perfect storm" of fiscal insanity: a record amount of spending money, the weakest auction class (to that point) in league history, a handful of excellent starting pitchers and several teams willing to spend more for those pitchers than any team had ever spent before.

There is a reason why you don't see any "Doyle Formula" predictions on this page this year, and the 2007 auction is the main reason for that.  I've learned that there are simply too many variables when it comes to predicting free agent salaries, and attempting to do so is a fool's game.  And despite popular opinion, I'm no fool.

So I won't be predicting how the new "Type-H" rules will affect free agent salaries this winter.  But I can offer some educated guesses:

• The new rules won't have any effect whatsoever on free agent salaries.  If there is one truism throughout league history, it is this: a GM who believes his team is one player away from winning the trophy will do anything to acquire that player.  And when that trophy is in sight, no one hesitates for a moment to worry about future implications.
• Teams that are out of contention this year will likely stay out of the bidding for most Type H free agents.  Because of the no-trade clause, there is too little motivation and too much risk for these teams to get involved, no matter how much spending money they may have.
• Ace pitchers will continue to fetch a premium.  Not only are Brad Penny, John Lackey, Mark Buehrle and Josh Beckett supremely talented pitchers, but they are each under the age of 30.  Teams will not hesitate to bid heavily for these pitchers, even with the prospect of a guaranteed two-year contract at season's end.  Last year's auction was an intriguing study in human psychology.  Once that $20 million barrier was broken, it became "okay" in the minds of everyone in the league to bid one-third of your team's total salary on one player.  It became "the norm."  Now that that barrier has been broken, it wouldn't surprise me to see all four pitchers sign for $15 million or more.
• There is a glaring shortage of impact bats on the free agent market this winter, so expect the few that are available (Ordonez, Bonds, Roberts and Ramirez) to fetch a pretty penny, despite their ages and injury histories.

Which teams do we need to keep an eye on?

The St. Louis Apostles are the biggest spenders this year, with $48.4 million in cash on hand.  The Apostles are in desperate need of pitching, so if Bobby Sylvester believes his team is in a position to compete in '08, you have to believe he'll be a major player for one of the Big Four.  (And with Bobby being such a huge Red Sox fan, it's a good bet that a certain Cy Young winner would be his #1 target.)  On the other hand, St. Louis has a ton of holes to fill, and may choose not to spend it all in one place.

The South Carolina Sea Cats come in just under the Apostles with $43.9 million in funny money.  They also rank #23 in the league in team VORP (before Cutdown Day), and buying one's way into contention is just about impossible in this day and age.  So the guess here is that all that money gets spread out among many players who are likely to have some impact in the future.

The most frightening (not to mention disheartening) combination in this league is a team that goes into Draft Day with a star-studded roster that is nearly complete, and yet has a TON of money to add to their nuclear arsenal.  That's the village where both the Allentown Ridgebacks and SoCal Slyme live.  Both teams have $39.6 million to spend on 11 players -- an average of $3.6 million per player.  Allentown currently ranks #1 in team VORP (prior to Cutdown Day) with a whopping 631.7, while SoCal ranks #3 at 542.0.

Allentown already has a six-man starting rotation in place.  They also have a star-studded lineup that includes Ryan Braun, Aaron Rowand, Kelly Johnson, Moises Alou, Ken Griffey and Cody Ross, and a bullpen that features Heath Bell and Jeremy Accardo.  What on earth will Tom DiStefano do with all that spending money?  Well, every year he enjoys playing the role of the guy who bids simply to drive up the price of every player and "keep everyone honest."  Expect more of the same this year.  And expect him to add at least one more impact bat, one more quality arm for the starting rotation, two more arms for the bullpen and a few bench players with lopsided splits.  Good luck, Eck League.

Southern Cal is in a slightly different position, in that their starting lineup is mostly complete, but there are still a few holes in the starting rotation.  So expect Bob Sylvester to bid heavily on starting pitching.  A bidding war with his son over Josh Beckett would be fun.

Las Vegas, Akron, Atlanta, Corona, Villanova and New Milford each have between $30-$40 million to spend.  You would expect Vegas, Atlanta, 'Nova and New Milford to be looking more toward the future, but you never know where a team sees itself on the success cycle.  If they are looking toward '09, these are the teams (along with South Carolina) in prime position to bid heavily for Chris Carpenter, Carlos Delgado, Travis Hafner, Rafael Furcal, Vernon Wells and others who have more value in '09 than in '08.

Corona is in an interesting position, in that they lead the league in available spending money per player ($5.65 million), and own a team that currently ranks 8th in VORP.  With a starting rotation that includes Aaron Harang, Noah Lowry and "Oh, Shit," expect them to be big spenders for at least one of the Big Four.

Akron is in the opposite position, with a very strong pitching staff, but not a lot of offense.  But D.J. Shepard has never spent more than $11.5 million for any player (Brian Giles in 2006), so don't expect a sudden wild-and-crazy spending spree in Akron this winter.

Seven teams have between $20-$30 million to spend, including the Salem Cowtippers, Marlboro Hammerheads, Ravenswood Infidels, New Hope Badgers and Cleveland Rocks.  Then, you come down to the teams who will likely be watching the festivities from the sidelines.  The Chicago Black Sox have just $17.4 million to spend on 20 players -- an average of just $870,000 per player.

After doling out $18 million in penalties and proclaiming his indifference to the free agent process, Los Altos GM Jeff Paulson has just $10.3 million remaining, but only three spots on his 35-man roster to fill.  Expect something like a $5-$3-$2 salary distribution for those three players.

After winning the whole shebang-and-kaboodle in 2007, the Kansas Law Dogs now have to pay the price for all that glory.  With just $7.1 million to spend on 13 players, don't expect to see Chris Luhning raising his paddle in the auction.  The same goes for John Duel ($9.9M to spend on 13 players.)

Finally, we come to the Bear Country Jamboree and Nashville Funkadelic.  Matt Clemm has spent the winter trying to avoid the free agent process at all cost, and all his tireless effort has resulted in a team that ranks #2 in the league in VORP.  With just $3.9 million to spend on five players, all the Jamboree really need is a part-time catcher and they'll be good to go.

The Funk currently rank 5th in VORP, and could field a full team today if they had to.  It's a good thing, too, since they only have $1.1 million to spend on 10 players.  Their average of $110,000 per player has to be some kind of BDBL record.

Please tell me the Class of '09 looks better than this?

The good news is that the same group of pitchers who sparked a feeding frenzy last winter will all be available again next winter, including C.C. Sabathia, Johan Santana, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz.  The bad news is that they'll all be two years older.

Bronson Arroyo, Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, Brandon Webb and Aaron Harang will all be free agents as well, making the Class of '09 look like a promising year for pitchers.  In terms of hitting, Todd Helton, Ken Griffey, Ivan Rodriguez, Jim Thome, Carlos Guillen, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu, Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman and Jermaine Dye look like the best of the lot so far.