May, 2008

Top Ten Stories of 2008 (So Far)

Story #1: The Butler Division Race

After two chapters of play, the Butler Division consists of four teams separated by just four games, all with 30 or more wins and records at or above 30-26 (.536.)  While most people expected the Cowtippers and Confederates to be competitive, the performances of the Badgers and Blazers have surprised many, and have given this league its most exciting division race of the season (so far.)

Up until now, these four teams have spent the majority of the season beating up on each other.  No team has dominated their division rivals, as all four teams have won 11-13 within the division.  As the schedule turns to interleague play, it is interesting to note that the Cowtippers were the only team in the Ozzie League with a winning record against the Eck League last year.

While the records of these four teams are very close, there is quite a bit of difference in how these teams have won.  The Cowtippers have outscored their opponents by a league-high 105 runs, and have allowed a BDBL-low 186 runs.  They are just 9-8 in one-run games, leading to a BDBL-worst Pythagorian difference of minus-six.  While Salem has excelled at home (20-8), the Confederates have dominated on the road (19-9), and own the best record in the BDBL (14-5) in one-run games.

The Badgers have pummeled opposing pitchers by scoring a league-high 293 runs while clubbing 82 home runs -- 18 more than any other team in the OL.  Playing in one of the league's best hitter's ballparks, the Badgers have allowed 285 runs (third from last in the OL), yet have outscored their opponents by eight runs this season.

And finally, the Blazers (who get their own story below) have inexplicably scored 281 runs (4th best in the OL) despite a lineup filled with the likes of Josh Phelps, Jeff Keppinger, Sammy Sosa, Doug Mientkiewicz, Skip Schumaker, Eric Munson and Alex Gonzalez.  Although their offensive production fell in the second chapter (along with their pitching), it continues to produce runs despite the presence of only one above-average hitter (Jack Cust.)

Story #2: The Southern Cal Slyme

One-third of the way into the season, the SoCal Slyme are 43-13 -- a winning percentage of .768.  This blows away the old BDBL record for hottest start to a season, set by the Cowtippers in 2002:

2002 Salem Cowtippers: 41-13 (.759)
2002 Allentown Ridgebacks: 39-15 (.722)
2001 Salem Cowtippers: 38-16 (.704)
2002 Los Altos Undertakers: 38-16 (.704)
2005 Salem Cowtippers: 39-17 (.696)
2007 New Hope Badgers: 39-17 (.696)
1999 Los Altos Undertakers: 39-17 (.696)
2001 Akron Ryche: 37-17 (.685)
2004 Allentown Ridgebacks: 38-18 (.679)
2000 Stamford Zoots: 33-16 (.673)

These ten teams averaged 105 wins during the regular season.  All ten made it to the post-season, of course.  Five of the ten won their league championship, but only two won the BDBL title.

Southern Cal is currently hitting .294/.357/.480 as a team (second only to Allentown in runs scored), and their pitchers own a team ERA of just 3.19 (second only to Salem.)  They have outscored their opponents by a whopping 131 runs this season.  The next best margin belongs to Salem at just 105.  Quite simply, they have blown away the competition this year.  13 of their 56 games (nearly 25%) have been won by more than five runs.

Although it's hard to imagine, the 2008 SoCal Slyme do not hold the BDBL record for the best record over two chapters.  That record may forever belong to the 2003 Stamford Zoots, who went a mind-numbing 45-7 in Chapters Four and Five -- a winning percentage of .865.  In fact, Stamford played .788 baseball over the entire second half of the season!

Story #3: The One That Got Away

It is always a sad occasion whenever one of us decides to abandon this league and this hobby, but it is especially sad when that person is a long-time member and "founding father" of the league.  Ken "Sharky" Kaminski will be missed, that is for sure.  Whether it was his constant waffling over every decision, his predilection for overturning his entire roster through trading and free agent acquisitions every 12 months or so, or the near-religious fervor he displayed in prosecuting the guilty (or merely accused) steroids users in Major League Baseball, Sharky has been a constant source of entertainment for nearly a decade.

I first met Ken Kaminski in the spring of 1995.  Until then, he had never played in a fantasy sports league of any kind.  Yet two years later, he was involved in at least two baseball (rotisserie) league and three fantasy football leagues.  His voracious appetite and enthusiasm for this hobby are what drew me to him as a friend, and I will always value the friendship we have enjoyed in the 13 years since.

Ken concludes his BDBL career with a record of 684-710 (.491) and two division titles.  The only question remaining is how long it will take before he changes his mind and asks to be placed on the BDBL's waiting list again.

Story #4: The Dead Ball Era

Perhaps it is because of the custom ballpark rule we adopted this past winter.  Or perhaps it's because teams abandoned big hitter's parks like Coors Field and The Ballpark at Arlington years ago.  Or perhaps it's a reflection of the BDBL's steroids testing program.  Whatever the reason, we're seeing an all-time low in offensive production so far this season:

The 2003 Litchfield Lightning hold the current BDBL record for lowest team OPS at 655.  Litchfield hit just .235/.300/.355 that season and scored a total of 594 runs.  In 2002, the SoCal Slyme set the BDBL record for fewest runs scored by a team in a single season, with 575.

This season, one team (Atlanta) owns a team OPS that is 12 points lower than Litchfield's record-setting offense, and the Sylmar Padawans (657), Las Vegas Flamingos (663) and Great Lakes Sphinx (672) aren't that far ahead.   In terms of runs scored, the Fire Ants are on pace to score just 549 runs this season, which would shatter SoCal's record of futility by 26 runs.  The San Antonio Broncs (594) and South Carolina Sea Cats (612) aren't much further ahead than that.

Then, there are the individual performances:

What in the name of Tom Tippett is going on here?!

Story #5: Inactivity

After nine years of arguing, debating and fighting over lopsided "dump" trades, it appears that -- perhaps -- we've finally reached a point in the BDBL where trades are as rare as they are in MLB.  Since Opening Day, we've only seen a total of TWO trades in the BDBL.  And neither of those two trades involved a big-name, pennant-race-altering, high-priced superstar impact player.

Is this a sign of progress?  I suppose it depends on your point of view.  Aside from all the rules we have passed to discourage dump trades, I'd like to think that we've seen fewer dump trades due to an increase in the level of knowledge and experience among the 24 owners in the league, and a mutual agreement that we are acting in the best interests of the league, and in a way that best simulates the actions of a major league GM.  But I'm probably just being naive.  If history is any indication, this is just the calm before the storm.

Story #6: The New Milford Blazers

I already covered the Blazers extensively in last month's FTDOTC.  But suffice it to say, the "correction" I predicted for them in that article wasn't nearly as drastic as I had hoped it would be.  New Milford went 11-17 in Chapter Two -- a .393 winning percentage.  Yet as awful as that record is, it isn't nearly awful enough to remove the bad taste in my mouth left by their shocking Chapter One performance, when their 19-9 record was good enough to temporarily lead the Ozzie League.

Their second chapter correction affected both their offense and pitching.  After leading the Ozzie League in several offensive categories in Chapter One, the Blazers hit just .258/.325/.429 as a team in Chapter Two, despite the benefit of playing in the division's best hitter's ballpark.  To no one's surprise, their pitching finally collapsed in Chapter Two, with a league-worst 5.29 ERA.

The intriguing question remains whether the Blazers will reach their stated goal of avoiding 100 losses for a second straight year.  To do so, they only have to play .298 baseball (31-73) the rest of the way.  Given that their putrid team in 2007 played .294 baseball, this shouldn't be too much of a stretch.  So perhaps the greater question is: What was the point of assembling a team filled with veteran short-usage players who have no value going forward?  Was it simply to excel for one chapter?  Was it simply to avoid 100 losses?  Does losing "only" 99 games supersede establishing a perennial contender year after year?

Story #7: The Great Lakes Sphinx

Also covered in my last FTDOTC, the Sphinx remain as enigmatic as ever.  Despite my prediction that Great Lakes' record would eventually correct itself, the team went just 12-16 in Chapter Two, and were outscored by their competition by eleven runs.

How on earth is a team filled with the likes of Mike Cuddyer, Jeff Kent, Carlos Lee, Justin Morneau, Michael Young, John Smoltz, Gil Meche, John Maine, Billy Wagner and Carlos Marmol sporting a 21-35 record after two chapters?

Already, the white flag waving has begun, as Eric Byrnes became the latest in a long line of Great Lakes dumping victims this past chapter.  More than likely, more dumping is just around the corner, as both Smoltz and Cuddyer will be free agents at the end of this season.  Unless this team stages a miraculous comeback, Scott Romonosky will spend yet another summer trying to figure out a way to assemble a team that will take him to the post-season for the first time in eleven years.  As a Chicago native and Cubs fan, Romonosky should be very familiar with his team's status in this league.  The Sphinx have officially become the Chicago Cubs of the BDBL!

Story #8: The Kansas Law Dogs

When Chris Luhning "went for it" in 2007 by trading for a $21 million pitcher, thus committing himself to $44 million in salary for just three players in 2008, most of us felt this would be the end of the brief Kansas Law Dogs dynasty.  Yet, despite playing in the same division as the team favored to win it all in 2008, the Law Dogs currently own the second-best record (36-16, .692) in the BDBL.

Heading into the season, the biggest question for Kansas seemed to be when they would inevitably trade their $21 million ace, Johan Santana, and how much they would get in return for him.  But as I type, Santana owns a record of 8-4 on the season despite a sub-par ERA of 4.10.  And, for now at least, it appears that he isn't heading anywhere any time soon.

The Kansas pitching staff currently ranks #2 in the Eck League in ERA, at 3.43.  Aside from Santana, the starting rotation has been anchored by Manchester cast-off Matt Cain (7-4, 3.48 ERA), surprise rookie sensation Brian Bannister (8-3, 3.24) and another rookie, Rich Hill (5-4, 5.22.)

The problem for Kansas, however, is that these are the only four starters who have taken the hill for them all season, and they can't possibly continue at this pace.  We are 35% into our season, and all four starters have consumed more than 35% of their innings so far: Santana (47%), Cain (45%), Bannister (56%) and Hill (39%).  At their current rate of usage, Kansas will only be able to squeeze another 82 games out of these four.  That leaves 22 games -- or nearly an entire chapter -- without a starting pitcher.

It's been a great story up to this point, but I'm afraid this story will probably not have a happy ending for Kansas fans.

Story #9: The Race to Ignominy

The 1999 New Milford Blazers set a record that many teams have approached, but not even the most woefully atrocious have matched, by losing 114 games for a "winning" percentage of just .287.  Last season, the Blazers tried their worst to beat that record, but fell just one game short, going 47-113 while being outscored by over 300 runs.  This year, there are two contenders for the crown in Atlanta (currently 17-39, .304) and South Carolina (15-37, .288.)

Both teams have scored fewer than 200 runs on the season (an average of less than 3.5 per game) and have allowed more than 290 runs (an average of 5.1/G.)  The Fire Ants have been outscored by 100 runs already, and the Sea Cats are close behind them at minus-95.

How awful is the Atlanta offense?  Only one batter on the entire roster currently owns an OPS over 800 (Ruben Gotay at 822 in just 44 PAs and 1 game started.)  And only TWO batters own an OPS over 700 at the moment.  If it's even possible, the Fire Ants may actually get worse before they get better, as they have been desperately trying to trade their all-star shortstop, Edgar Renteria, since Opening Day.  If Renteria leaves, Greg Zaun (713 OPS) becomes the best full-time hitter in the lineup (and he, too, is on the block!)

The Sea Cats look like the '27 Yankees in comparison, as Hank Blalock (898), Ian Kinsler (859), Jason Giambi (799), Mike Rabelo (796), Bobby Abreu (774) and Geoff Jenkins (756) all own OPS's higher than Atlanta's best full-time hitter, Renteria (744.)

On the mound, however, it's all bad news for South Carolina.  Of the five pitchers in the Sea Cats starting rotation, none owns an ERA below 4.93.  That makes Josh Towers, with a 1-6 record, the team's ace.  Three of the pitchers in South Carolina's starting rotation own ERA's in the 6.00's: Chuck James (6.29), Jarrod Washburn (6.31) and Mike Mussina (6.39.)  James has been so horrible, he has already allowed TWENTY-SIX home runs on the season in just 12 games (11 starts.)  That's an average of 3.4 homers allowed per nine innings!

As difficult as it is to believe, however, there are three pitchers on the Atlanta pitching staff with higher ERA's than Mussina: John Danks (6.79 in 62+ IP), Kevin Slowey (7.18 in 26+ IP) and Luis Ayala (7.63 in 15+ IP.)  On the flip side, reliever Mark Hendrickson has thrown 43 innings this season with an ERA of just 0.63.  Take away his performance, and Atlanta's ERA would soar from 4.68 to 5.05!

As a side note, the worst pitcher in the BDBL this season, in terms of ERA, has been Las Vegas' Josh Fogg.  Fogg owns a 7.94 ERA in 56+ innings this year, with 10 starts.  Yet, as awful as he has been this season, he was still able to toss seven shutout innings against the Marlboro Hammerheads.  How 'bout that!

Story #10: Much Ado About Nothing

Has there ever been a more hilarious turn of events than the recent Salem-Marlboro trade?  With his first official decision as GM of the Hammerheads, Nic Weiss made a trade with the Cowtippers that launched a two-page missive from a handful of angry owners, livid that the esteemed commissioner of the league had taken unfair advantage of a na�ve newbie owner by using his considerable influence and negotiating expertise to acquire a part-time platoon hitter, a short-usage reliever and a backup catcher in exchange for four cheap youngsters.

The argument raged for several days, and the trading deadline passed.  Then, the following morning, it was discovered that the trade had violated the in-season VORP cap rule, and would have to be nullified.

Only in the BDBL.