May, 2010

Top Ten Stories of 2010 (So Far)

Story #1: Y.A.S.D.  (Yet Another Salem Disappointment)

Normally, the Salem Cowtippers suffering a disappointment wouldn't be newsworthy, but when that disappointment comes before the playoffs have begun, that is a major story.  Although the 'Tippers have had disappointing seasons before (2003 and 2009), this year's squad has underperformed in such a profound way, you have to wonder if perhaps this entire season isn't an elaborately-designed going-away present by Steve Osborne.

The Cowtippers were expected to win their division, and even after their slow start (and Corona's red-hot start), they led the league polling on that question.  Yet, instead of dominating the division as expected by nearly everyone, Salem is just 26-30 on the year, and trails the first-place Confederates by a seemingly insurmountable 12 games.  The Salem offense is sporting a slugging percentage below .400, and the Salem pitching staff, led by twin "aces" Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren, owns an ERA of 4.25 (7th in the Ozzie League.)  Perhaps most startling of all, Hernandez and Haren have allowed a combined 36 home runs in just 28 starts.

Salem's 14-14 start to the season was supposed to be a random fluke, yet they followed that performance with a miserable 12-16 record in Chapter Two.  Regardless of whether or not the Cowtippers finally start playing to their ability over the next four chapters, it is doubtful that enough time is left in this season for Salem to make up the ground necessary to overtake the surprising Confederates and the cheesetastic Blazers.  Which means 2010 becomes yet another lost season in Salem franchise history.

Story #2: The Dominance of the Infidels

Like the Cowtippers, the Infidels were expected to win their division this year.  Unlike the Cowtippers, Ravenswood is not only meeting those expectations, but has exceeded them beyond even Brian Potrafka's wildest dreams.  After posting a 20-8 record in the first chapter, the Infidels completely blew away the competition in Chapter Two with a 21-7 record.  Their .732 winning percentage after two chapters easily tops the BDBL, and they rank #2 in the entire BDBL in runs scored and #1 in fewest runs allowed.

The Ravenswood offense, led by unlikely superstar Scott Rolen (.347/.407/.507), leads the OL in OBP, slugging, runs scored, hits, doubles and RBIs.  Adam Lind (last year's infamous pickup in the Roy Halladay deal) is having a monster season, hitting .340/.417/.675 with 16 homers and a league-leading 60 runs batted in.  And rookie Pablo Sandoval (.317/.404/.528) and utility infielder-turned-superstar Luis Valbuena (.306/.379/.507) are excelling as well.

On the mound, the Infidels lead the league with a microscopic 3.09 ERA.  Tyler Clippard (1.13 ERA), Brandon League (1.75), Alfredo Aceves (1.78) and Ramon Troncoso (1.95) each own an ERA below 2.00, Wandy Rodriguez (10-2, 2.39 ERA) is having a season for the ages, Mark Buehrle (9-2, 2.36 ERA) would be a Cy Young contender if not for Rodriguez, and big free agent acquisition Javier Vazquez (7-2, 3.09) is almost an afterthought.  Of the team's five main starters, only Brad Bergesen (4.82 ERA) owns an ERA over 3.09.

In short, everything that could possibly go right for the Infidels this season has gone right.  Must be nice.  Have you noticed that Skizm has been a much happier and calmer person this year?  Coincidence?

Story #3: Arbitrage Situation

When Nic Weiss gave up on a division-leading team in the middle of last season, and began trading away all of his superstars in exchange for future considerations, it was considered to be a reprehensible act on par with the Great Flag-Waving incident of 2007 in Southern California.  Well...Weiss is at it again.

During the final week of the chapter, Weiss sent superstar slugger Manny Ramirez and able-bodied lefty reliever Phil Coke to the Cleveland Rocks in exchange for future considerations Alex Gordon and Tanner Scheppers.  In doing so, Weiss crippled a team that owns a 30-26 (.536) record and sits just three games out of the wild card race -- a race that is led by the deplorable Blazers, no less.

When asked to explain himself, Weiss stated that he viewed this as "an arbitrage situation."  In other words, he saw an opportunity to buy low on Gordon and Scheppers while selling high on Ramirez, and figured there is plenty of time to make up the difference in production down the road (if, indeed, the Meatballs are still competitive a chapter or two from now.)

This strategy of punting a contending team in favor of building a future "superteam" is hardly unique, and it's hardly the first time this has happened in BDBL history.  Despite all of the league's attempts to stop this from happening (heavy penalties for teams that perform poorly, making those penalties permanent from year-to-year, changing the draft order, etc., etc.), nothing seems to work.  Even the failure of past superteams to win the championship hasn't dissuaded GM's from attempting to build the "next great superteam."  The temptation is simply too great to resist.

The question with this deal is whether Weiss truly helped his franchise going forward, as neither Gordon nor Scheppers appear to be a guarantee at this point.  But then again, the same could be said of Adam Lind a year ago, so I guess you never know.

Story #4: The Badgers' Battle With Infamy

The 1999 New Milford Blazers' record of 114 losses once seemed unbreakable.  That record stood for nearly a decade before the 2008 Atlanta Fire Ants came along and shattered that record with 116 losses.  Once again, many thought that record would stand the test of time.  But hold the phone.

After two chapters of play, the New Hope Badgers own a record of 14-42 -- a .250 winning percentage that puts them on pace to finish with a record of 40-120.  The Badgers have been outscored by 127 runs -- an average of more than two runs per game.  They are batting just .231/.302/.375 as a team and own a team ERA of 5.61.

Out of the 14 series they've played this season (mostly via MP), the Badgers have been swept in half of those series, and have only won two series all season, including an incredible four-game sweep of the Las Vegas Flamingos.  (That has to sting, Johnny Bo!)

While it's unlikely the Badgers can maintain this pace (it's difficult for any team to be extremely good or bad over a long stretch), it will be interesting to see how close New Hope comes to shattering that once-unshatterable record.

Story #5: The Hrbek Division Race

In preseason polling, the Hrbek Division was expected to be a two-team race between the Akron Ryche (who led the polling with 6 votes for winning the division) and Atlanta (5 votes.)  But the surprising Cleveland Rocks have made this a compelling three team race.  After two chapters of play, Akron leads the division by just one game ahead of both Cleveland and Atlanta.

In terms of runs differential, Atlanta leads the division at +28, followed closely by Akron (+24.)  Cleveland (at -10) seems to be carrying their 30-26 record with the aid of smoke and mirrors.  But after a frenzy of trades at the Chapter Two deadline, in which the Rocks added Manny Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Lowell and three relievers, the Rocks may now have enough firepower to make a legitimate run at the pennant.

Incredibly, only a year after ranking 8th in the Eck League in runs scored (757), the Atlanta Fire Ants currently rank second in the EL with 302.  This past winter's trade acquisition of Lance Berkman (.306/.464/.612, 12 HR) has proven to be a huge deal for Atlanta, as was the free agent signing of David DeJesus (.298/.391/.489) at only $3.5M and the addition of rookie Gordon Beckham (.280/.370/.459.)

The Ryche also have a rookie making a huge impact this season by the name of Tommy Hanson (4-4, 2.49 ERA, 81 K in 86+ IP.)  Free agent Randy Wolf (7-4, 4.12 ERA in 87+ IP) has proven to be a valuable addition as well.  And after suffering through several injury-plagued seasons, Jason Kubel (.341/.406/.634) is finally healthy and incredibly productive.

For Cleveland, Torii Hunter, a $5.5 million free agent signing this past winter, is pretty much carrying the offense, hitting .323/.400/.642 overall, with a league-leading 19 homers and 52 RBIs.  And on the mound, another big winter free agent signing, Ted Lilly (at $9 million), has posted a 6-2 record after two chapters of play, with a 3.32 ERA in 62+ innings.

This will undoubtedly be an exciting race right to the finish, with all three teams jockeying for position.  With two chapters left in the trading season, expect to see a lot of movement in the Hrbek Division.

Story #6: All in the Family

Is there a better rivalry in the BDBL than Sylvester vs. Sylvester?  These two franchises came into this season ranked #9 and #10 on the all-time wins list, separated by just 23 wins.  The Slyme have two league titles, four division titles and three wild cards under their belt, while the Apostles own four division titles and one wild card.

The past couple of years have been particularly entertaining, as father and son have traded positions atop the division.  In 2008, the Slyme won the division with the best record in BDBL history, but were then upset in the Division Series.  The wild-card-winning Apostles also lost their Division Series that year.  In 2009, it was Bobby's turn to win the division, while his old man settled for the wild card.  Once again, the top seed was upset in the Division Series, while the old man rode a hot streak right all the way to the BDBL World Series (which he lost to a dominant Undertakers team of destiny.)

This year, St. Louis was expected to easily win the division (capturing 12 of the 13 votes in our league preseason poll.)  But it is the Slyme who now sit atop the division, with the best record in the Eck League (37-19, .661) and a two-game lead over the Apostles.

This will undoubtedly be another exciting race right down to the wire.  The excitement isn't nearly as palpable as it is with the Hrbek Division race, however, as the loser of the Person Division will most likely win the wild card.

Story #7: The Resurrection of the Emperor

After taking a year off following his third BDBL championship, Tom "The Emperor" DiStefano is back on top of the division he has owned since 2002.  The Ridgebacks are one of three Eck League teams currently sporting a .600 record (34-22, .607) and own the greatest runs differential (+83) in the Eck League.  With 325 runs scored, Allentown leads the BDBL in that category, thanks to contributions from guys like Ryan Braun (.335/.418/.544), Angel Pagan (.321/.377/.500), Ian Kinsler (.305/.396/.453), Mark Reynolds (.305/.376/.494), Jason Bartlett (.303/.378/.433), Jayson Werth (.281/.361/.511), Ben Zobrist (.275/.394/.509), Jorge Posada (.265/.363/.510) and Justin Morneau (.256/.361/.508.)

That's NINE hitters with an OPS above .800.  A full lineup (plus one!) of .800-OPS hitters.  It's just not fair.

And then, there is Tim Lincecum.  Lincecum is having a season that Pedro Martinez, in his prime, would envy.  In 14 starts, the little guy with the funny delivery has racked up an 11-1 record (one loss?  how??), a miniscule 1.60 ERA in 95+ innings, with only 54 hits and 30 walks allowed, and 125 strikeouts -- an average of 11.8 per nine.

In addition to Lincecum, who has averaged just 5.1 hits allowed per nine, the Allentown pitching staff boasts no fewer than four other pitchers who are averaging fewer than six hits allowed per nine innings.  Co-closers Claudio Vargas and George Sherrill have allowed a total of seven earned runs in 42 innings combined (an ERA of 1.50.)

And despite the fact that the next-best starting pitcher's ERA on this team is 4.86 (Scott Baker), the Ridgebacks continue to do nothing but win.

Story #8: The Sphinx: Still Sucking After All These Years

On the flip side, Allentown's division rival Great Lakes just continues to lose.  And lose, and lose and lose.  Year after year after year after year.  It has now been 11 years since the Sphinx so much as sniffed second place.  And for an unprecedented 12th year in a row, it appears Great Lakes will once again not make it to the post-season.

Like many of the past seasons in recent history, this was supposed to be the year the Sphinx finally broke that streak.  But after two chapters of play, the team owns a record of 24-32 (.429), 10 games behind the Ridgebacks in the Higuera Division.

Offensively, the Sphinx are hitting as well as could be expected.  The team ranks seventh in the EL in runs scored, and is hitting .248/.328/.409 overall.  The big hitters -- Michael Young (.321/.394/.528), J.D. Drew (.286/.406/.503), Prince Fielder (.281/.395/.505) and Jason Bay (.258/.354/.567) -- are all carrying the weight of the lineup as expected.

But on the mound, this team has been a disaster.  Ubaldo Jimenez was supposed to be a Cy Young contender this season, but instead is sporting a 4.23 ERA (76 points higher than the one he posted while pitching in Coors Field last MLB season), and is getting tagged by left-handed batters to the tune of .304/.400/.471 (compared to .251/.340/.341 in MLB '09.)  Jared Weaver's ERA (4.74) is nearly a full run higher than his MLB ERA, and J.A. Happ's ERA (4.93) is TWO FULL RUNS higher than his MLB '09 ERA!

But the granddaddy of them all is Johan Santana, Scott Romonosky's $20.5 million investment from 2009.  In a dozen starts, Santana has been tagged to the tune of .277/.340/.472.  He owns an ERA (5.45) that is 2.32 runs higher than his MLB '09 ERA, and lefties especially are pounding him (.326/.380/.641.)

This team's closer, Chris Perez, is currently sporting an ERA of 9.93.  Yes, 9.93!  In 29 innings, he's allowed a DOZEN home runs (that's 3.7 HR/9 on average!), along with 33 hits and 24 walks.  If nothing else, you have to give Romonosky props for sticking with the guy after so many poundings.  (Or do you?)

More and more, this is looking like yet another rebuilding year for the Sphinx.  Which means it's time to start looking at their trade bait.  Bay, Young and Shane Victorino are all free agents at the end of this season.  Santana is just about untradeable due to his salary, and assuming Jimenez and Fielder are untouchable, there isn't much left.  It looks like yet another long season in Great Lakes.

Story #9: The Shocking Confederates of Corona

Here's what I wrote about the Confederates in the preseason preview:

Strengths: Joe Mauer, Joe Mauer and Joe Mauer.  Seven years after Bobby Sylvester traded a young Joe Mauer to Paul Marazita in exchange for Juan "Stick Boy" Cruz, Mauer could very well become the first player in BDBL history to hit .400.  He could also become the first player in BDBL history to win an MVP award for a last-place team.  The lineup surrounding Mauer actually isn't bad at all, and other than shortstop there are no glaring weaknesses.

Weaknesses: This starting rotation is just horrendous.  When Scott Feldman is the ace of your staff, you know you've got issues.  If the Confederates owned a strong bullpen, the weakness of the rotation wouldn't be as much of an issue.  Unfortunately for Ed McGowan, the bullpen doesn't look much better.

Outlook: The Confederates franchise is in trouble.  After so many years of glory, this franchise has no player under the age of 27 who has a better than average chance of earning more than his salary in the next year or two.  And the farm system is completely barren.  Corona needs to work overtime this summer finding some way to improve this team's fortunes or it's going to be a long decade for Ed McGowan.  Unfortunately, other than Lyon and White, there isn't a lot of trade bait here unless McGowan wants to do the unthinkable and trade Mauer.

Prediction: 3rd place.  The only thing keeping this team out of last place is the presence of the Badgers.  If nothing else, McGowan will enjoy managing his team this season for no other reason than to watch Mauer as he breaks a couple of BDBL records.  Other than that, however, it's going to be a very challenging (and long) season.

What has happened since then is nothing less than mind-numbing.  The Confederates rolled over the competition with the best record in the BDBL (21-7) in the first chapter, and, just to prove it wasn't a fluke, went 17-11 in Chapter Two.  Overall, Corona owns a .679 winning percentage (third-best in the BDBL) and a five-game lead in the division.

What the hell happened??

Well, for starters, that "horrendous" starting rotation has contributed to a team ERA that ranks fifth in the Ozzie League at 3.72 (roughly half a run better than Salem.)  Aaron Cook, who posted a 4.16 ERA in 158 MLB innings in 2009, with 175 hits allowed, is now 7-3 with a 3.20 ERA and just 67 hits allowed in 70+ innings.  Ervin Santana (5.03 ERA in MLB '09) is 3-0 for Corona with a 3.81 ERA in 26 innings.  Jeremy Sowers (5.25 ERA in MLB '09) has added a 1.50 ERA in four spot starts (24 innings.)  And Scott Feldman (6-4, 4.03 ERA in 87 IP) and Zach Duke (7-3, 4.36 ERA in 84+ IP) have been exactly as good (or bad) as expected.

What I failed to account for in my preseason preview was Corona's infield defense, which includes three Vg-rated infielders and one Ex.  Opponents are hitting just .272 on balls in play, which ranks third in the BDBL (WAY behind the second-place Blazers at .258, oddly enough.)

Corona's pitching staff averages just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings, which is -- by far -- the lowest rate in the BDBL.  But they've been able to take advantage of their low BIP average by forcing the opponents to put the ball in play 1,588 times this season -- the highest total in the BDBL.

The Confederates are also benefitting from an astounding BIP rate on offense as well.  They've put the ball in play 1,550 times (third in the BDBL), and are averaging a mind-numbing .333 on those balls in play -- the best rate in the BDBL.

The Corona offense is being carried by just three players: Joe Mauer (.421/.502/.644), Kendry Morales (.372/.409/.667) and Shin-Soo Choo (.348/.459/.612.)  Combined, those three hitters have created 189.1 of the team's 304.9 total runs -- that's over 62 percent!

In other words...once those three hitters regress a little further to the mean over the next four chapters, and this team's BIP rate (both offensively and defensively) corrects itself as well, this team will fall back to earth in a hurry.  At least, that's what I tell myself in order to sleep at night.

Story #10: Yawn...the Undertakers Still Dominant

A .696 winning percentage that puts them on pace for another 111-win season.  304 runs scored, which ranks second in the BDBL and puts them on pace for 869 runs scored for the season.  Only 198 runs allowed, which also ranks second in the BDBL.

Yawn.

Just another utterly dominant season by the Los Altos Undertakers.  Not much of a story, but it's tough coming up with ten of them sometimes.

The scary thing is, the Los Altos pitching staff is underperforming a little bit.  Matt Garza owns a 4.40 ERA (45 points above his MLB '09 average), and is allowing lefties to hit him at a .252/.368/.412 rate (compared to .196/.300/.309 in MLB '09.)  And C.C. Sabathia is just 7-5 on the year, with a mediocre 3.82 ERA.

But has anyone noticed that Los Altos bullpen is just a tad bit ridiculous?  (Again?)  Joakim Soria hasn't allowed a single earned run yet this season in over 20 innings.  And this team owns no fewer than SEVEN relievers with sub-2.00 ERA's this season.  Seriously -- seven?  Is that really necessary?

Just think -- we get to do this all over again next year.