September, 2010
Yeah, We
Said It
It
is time once again to revisit the good ol' BDBL forum and have some fun
at our own expense.
Okay, is this hot streak ever
going to end? Or has Brad Zobrist suddenly become Cal Ripken
overnight?
-- Mike Glander, 7/9/09
Yep, Zobrist turned into Cal Ripken
overnight. Then the clock struck midnight and he turned back into Ben Zobrist.
I'm going to go out on a limb
and predict that Brandon Inge will not hit more than 10 homers in
the second half, and that Mauer will not hit more than five. You
read it here first.
-- Mike Glander, 7/12/09
Well, I was half right. Inge hit
6 homers in the second half last year, but Mauer hit a whopping 13!
Of course, Mauer has regressed back to normal this season. (But
not before single-handedly carrying the Confederates to a division
title.)
It's not that I think Gallardo
is going to get hurt (though we know how it goes with pitchers). My
belief is that his walk rate is going to continue to get worse.
-- Tom DiStefano, 8/27/09
Gallardo's 2009 walk rate: 4.6 per nine
Gallardo's 2010 walk rate: 3.6 per nine
But in fairness to Tom, who could've
ever predicted that a 24-year-old would improve over time?
Prado was a better player last
year than Kinsler. 822 OPS with more even splits over 814 OPS in an
extreme hitters park. For his career, Prado is a 307 hitter with an
OPS of 810. That is pretty good for a 100K player.
-- Anthony Peburn,
12/2/09, defending his trade of Martin Prado for Gavin Floyd
(since his trading partner, Scott, was unavailable for comment)
Hey, you know what? Prado is
having a better year than Kinsler. The only problem is...Kinsler
wasn't involved in that trade! And Gavin Floyd is still WAAAAAY
more valuable than Martin Prado!
But hey, it was a good effort. We
haven't seen the "ignore that man behind the curtain" defense on the BDBL forum since 2003.
I hated to trade [Cameron]
Maybin, I really did. But I desperately need offense to compete...I
can compete if I add bats.
-- John Duel, 12/18/09
Ah...the irrational exuberance and hope
of the pre-season. (Sort of reminds one of the irrational
exuberance and hope of post-election 2008.) Despite trading away
the farm in Maybin, Ryan Westmoreland and Mike Moustakas this past
winter, the Padawans are just 57-67 on the season -- 30 games out of
first place -- and rank third from last in runs scored.
John was right about one thing: he
desperately needed bats to compete. He just didn't get them
through trading the farm this winter.
can't understand why anyone
would want Vlad
-- Anthony Peburn,
12/23/09
Umm...maybe 'cuz he's awesome? Bee-otch.
Looking at this and hearing
everyone's opinion, I probably should not have traded [Evan]
Longoria, but it is early and time will tell. I could end up with
three studs or three duds. I'm hoping (and praying) for the three
studs.
-- John Gill, 12/24/09
Update time:
Jesus Montero: .289/.353/.517, 21 HR in
Triple-A as a 20-year-old
Ryan Westmoreland: .296/.401/.484 in the short-season New York Penn
league
Josh Bell: .275/.326/.478, 13 HR in 316 AB in AAA, .226/.238/.339 in 124
MLB at-bats
Three decent prospects, to be sure.
But for Evan Longoria?!?
I thought I needed a guy like
Halladay, Vazquez, or even Lilly to get me nearer to 75 wins than 65
wins in order to save on cumulative penalties
for this year.
-- Mike Ranney, 1/3/10
I guess this just goes to prove that
one pitcher cannot carry an entire team to 75 wins.
How many of the players selected
in this [farm] draft will actually play a single game in the BDBL?...How
many will be cut by this time next year?
At some point, you have to ask....what's the point??
-- Mike Glander, 1/4/10
For the record, 110 players were
selected in the farm draft this year. 31 have already been
released. That's pretty much one out of every three! So
again, I ask: what's the point??
Fun fact: of the six players chosen by
Peabrain, he's already released five of them! (And this is the
same Peabrain who bitched the entire draft about not having enough
picks!)
[Brandon] Webb [at $6 million]
is the biggest bargain in this league now...From everything I've
read, Webb should be completely healthy by spring training. If I had
the money, I would've gone $9 million on him, and wouldn't have
hesitated to do so.
For the teams that aren't planning to be competitive this year, I
don't understand what they're saving their money for.
-- Mike Glander, 1/6/10
In retrospect, I guess I got a little
excited over nothing. Now I know how it must feel to be an Obama
supporter.
Speaking of our Dear Leader, here is a
collection of quotes from our favorite liberal posters, John and Jeff.
After each quote, simply insert my catch-all snarky comment: "How's that
working out for us?":
So yes, I am in favor of adding
to the deficit if it means stimulating the economy.
-- Jeff Paulson, 1/26/09
I would think putting funding
back would create jobs--not high paying ones, but jobs that people
would love, nonetheless...I think we can agree that everything
should be looked at for its ability to add jobs or add value to the
economy beyond the dollars spent.
-- John Duel, 1/28/10
The [healthcare] bill will
pass--as I have said on numerous occasions on this board. And then
we'll see how people feel. My guess is that people will like it more
than the way things are now, and it will only be good for the
Democrats since the Republicans refused to participate.
-- John Duel, 3/10/10
Judging by the [stock] market,
looks like things are working alright...I guess the future is
looking pretty bright!
-- Jeff Paulson, 7/24/09
My honest answer to if the
stimulus is working is N/A. I think its too early to make a judgment
on it.
-- Jeff Paulson, 7/24/09
I think [the stimulus] helped a
little, yes, and I think as more money is spent from it that it will
continue to be beneficial.
-- Jeff Paulson, 2/17/10
Keep in mind that less than
$200B of that trillion was spent in 2009. Far more is slated for
this year, with a nearly equal amount slated for 2011 and smaller
amounts for a few years after that. So you will get more for your
money once it's spent.
-- John Duel, 2/17/10
One more time, all together now: How's
that working out for us?
Niagara
Picks: Chris Withrow (A), Wilmer Font (C), Alex Colome (A),
Jurickson Profar (D), Domingo Santana (A), Jose Ramirez (B), John
Madison Younginer (A), Tomas Telis (C), Marcell Ozuna (A). Whew!
Comments: I would like to rescind my �yes� vote to allow Mike Ranney
into the league as he mangled my draft list. I thought the Withrow,
Colome, Santana, and Ozuna picks were all outstanding. Likewise,
Ramirez and Younginer were nice gambles late. In my opinion, Ranney
had the best draft in the league.
Best pick: A toss up between Santana (84th overall) and Ozuna (109th
overall)
Grade: A+
-- Tom DiStefano, 1/6/10,
in his "official, non-gay, actual Farm Draft Report"
Update time:
Withrow: 5.37 ERA in AA, walking 4.6
per 9
Font: 4.35 ERA between Low-A/High-A with 5.15 BB/9
Colome: 3.95 ERA in Low-A (yawn)
Profar: .263/.327/.392 in short-season Northwest League (double-yawn)
Santana: .211/.329/.333 with 149 K's in 351 AB's between Low-A and
Rookie
Ramirez: there are SIX Jose Ramirezes in the minors, so not sure which
one this is, but they all pretty much suck
Younginer: 4.79 ERA, 5.8 K/9 in New York-Penn League
Telis: .326/.351/.431 in Rookie ball
Ozuna: .259/.310/.543, with a 16/90 BB/K ratio in rookie-level NYP
league
In my opinion, Tom wrote the worst farm
draft report in the league.
It says Kansas City actually
"won" the Peavy Sweepstakes. Good lord. $13 million for a guy who's
moved from Petco Park to Comiskey (or whatever they're calling it
these days.) No way on earth I'd take that kind of gamble. That is
going to be the ugliest contract in the BDBL a year from now.
-- Mike Glander, 1/6/10
Well, maybe not the ugliest, but
certainly top five.
Brandon Webb is the front page
story on ESPN's baseball page, confident he will bounce back from
injury! That's my boy!
-- Jeff Paulson, 1/7/10
Oh, Jeff...haven't you learned by now
that you can't believe everything you read in the media?
I actually thought [the Brent
Morel pick] was one of the best picks of the draft. If it turns out
I'm right, you can expect to see that grade in the annual "Forum
Flubs" article.
-- Mike Glander, 1/7/10
Well, I am posting this in the annual
"Forum Flubs" article...but just so that I could say I predicted it.
Morel is hitting .321/.358/.479 overall
this season, between AA and AAA combined. So in retrospect, he was
a pretty decent fifth-round pick. Especially considering that he
went four rounds after Randal Grichuk!
robbie ross is the martin perez
of this year. the rangers like him a ton. he is their 4th or 5th
best prospect. david lough rakes. he will be starting in the bigs
and poisting a good OPS before the end of the season, count on it.
jon gaston was the last pick of the draft in the 8th round. pardon
me for taking a flier on a young outfielder with the highest
slugging percentage in the minors. as for tyler kehrer, two of the
six angles prospect sites i used found kehrer better than los altos'
first rounder, fabio martinez.
-- Bobby Sylvester,
1/8/10
Bobby was a little upset by the "D"
grade I gave him for his farm draft. In particular, he was
disgusted that I didn't even know how most of the guys he selected were.
Since then, two of the four he mentioned above have been released, and
one other (Gaston) will probably be released at the end of the season.
And I still don't know who any of those guys are.
I realized a few days ago that
my only shot out of the gate to compete was to get one more SP.
-- Ed McGowan, 1/13/10
Who was this mysterious missing link to
Corona's playoff aspirations referred to above? None other than
Scott Feldman, who has lately been relegated to long relief by the
Confederates. I guess they somehow managed to compete without him.
[Tony] Gwynn has a nice OBP
against righties, plays good D in CF and his slugging will go WAY up
moving from SD to my park.
-- Anthony Peburn,
1/14/10
Gwynn hit 2 homers all year, in
393 AB's. How many homers are you expecting him to hit in your park?
4? That would be a 100% increase, but it's still only 4 homers!
-- Mike Glander,
1/14/10
Well, as a matter of fact, smart-ass,
Tony Gwynn has hit...err...four home runs for the Blazers this year.
Hey, how 'bout that?!
[Landon] Powell will be starting
at C over [Kurt] Suzuki next year. He is just all around better.
-- Anthony Peburn,
1/17/10
Someone please alert the authorities
and have them conduct a search for Landon Powell's playing time.
I just want to point out that
while the rest of us were fighting over the Frank Catalanotto's,
Jeff Weaver's and David Eckstein's of the free agent cesspool, Jeff
Paulson was busy stockpiling arms for his 2011 bullpen:
Dan Runzler
Kelvim Escobar
Joel Zumaya
J.J. Putz
A year from now, when we're all shaking our heads in disgust,
wondering how we could have allowed Paulson to build yet another
great, cheap bullpen, just find a mirror and look into it.
-- Mike Glander, 1/20/10
Combined stats of those four pitchers:
115.1 IP, 98 H, 6 HR, 41 BB, 121 K, 2.81 ERA. Just imagine if
Escobar were healthy!
I'd say the odds of those
pitchers being worth a bullpen spot next year are less than 50% at
best.
-- Chris Luhning, 1/20/10
Never tell me the odds, kid.
3 injury-prone relievers and the
next Jack Taschner.
I say 25%.
-- Matt Clemm, 1/20/10
Wishful thinking from a division rival.
Suck it, Paulson. Rocks now
have:
Samuel Gervacio
Scot Shields
Manny Corpas
Matt Capps
and 500K Trever Miller!
-- Mike Stein, 1/22/10
Combined stats of those five pitchers:
167 IP, 178 H, 20 HR, 72 BB, 134 K, 4.31 ERA. Paulson wins!
(Again.)
I predict the winner of that
series wins the division--and if it's a split than I go with the
winner of the New Hope/Corona series.
-- John Duel, 1/29/10
When John made that prediction, I had
to laugh that he thought New Milford actually had a chance to win the
division. I guess the joke was on me.
I'd have to think long and hard
before trading [Tyler Flowers] for [Carlos Santana.]... I think
Flowers and Santana are a toss-up, offensively.
-- Mike Glander, 2/23/10
Yeah, I said it. I'm not proud of
it. But I said it.
If there is anyone on this list
I don't believe in, its Madison Bumgardner. A pitcher with no
secondary pitchers who experienced dimminshing fastball velocity
over the course of last season...I just don't see it. I know many
love him, but he would not be in my top 30.
-- Jeff Paulson, 2/23/10
Must be that anti-Giants bias seeping
through.
Let's post guys that few people
know that we have on our rosters that we think could pan out.
For example, I really like the following farm players currently on
my roster:
Randall Delgado (Braves fireballer)
Randal Grichuk (not sure why he keeps getting dissed, was a first
round pick and hit .322/.352/.551 in his first pro exposure)
Angel Morales (Twins of, I've been watching him for a while and
decided to take a flier this past draft)
Miguel Velazquez (despite missing a season due to some issues
prison, I like this outfielders upside)
Garrett Richards (big hard throwing Angels pitcher)
From this list, I really like the pitchers and then probably Grichuk.
-- Tom DiStefano, 2/23/10
Fun fact: of the five players Tom
listed, he's already released three of them. I guess that's why
few people knew them.
I think Tyson Gillies, Eric
Hosmer, Guillermo Pimentel, David Renfroe, Gary Sanchez and Manny
Banuelos will all be top-100's next year.
-- Mike Glander, 2/23/10
Fun fact: of the six players I listed
as probable top-100's above, I've already released three of them (and traded two of
the remaining three.)
[Zach] Stewart not on the [BA
Top 100 prospects] list makes it an awful list IMHO.
If you want a name, Cody Scarpetta, write it down.
-- Anthony Peburn,
2/23/10
Peburn wrote down Scarpetta's name, all
right...under the "Release" section of his Chapter Four transactions
form!
As for Stewart (125+ IP, 123 H, 13 HR,
51 BB, 103 K, 3.81 ERA in AA), I don't think he'll make next year's BA
Top-100 list, either.
Mark it down.
Zack Von Rosenberg, P, Pirates.
Ranked in their Top 10 by BA.
-- Mike Stein, 2/23/10
Von Rosenberg: 56 IP, 57 H, 4 HR, 13
BB, 36 K, 3.38 ERA in the New York-Penn League. Okay, we wrote it
down. Now what?
Plus, it's chapter two. Chapter
three will see more teams falling out of it, and I viewed this as an
arbitrage situation.
-- Nic Weiss, 5/4/10
Perhaps the Quote of the Year right
there. The Meatballs owned a .538 winning percentage when this
trade was made. Since trading Manny Ramirez in the "arbitrage"
deal, Mississippi is...26-22 -- a .542 winning percentage! Yes,
they've actually improved without Manny! Viva arbitrage!
I predict [Starlin Castro will]
be back in the minors by July.
-- Matt Clemm, 5/8/10
Predictions are really not your strong
suit, Matt.
Here are the 2010 WARP numbers
on the "bad" trade:
Scott Kazmir -.3
Cole Hamels .6
Total : net .3
Phil Hughes 3.8
Gio Gonzalez .9
Carlos Gomez .6
F, Morales -.1
Total: Net 5.1
Hmmm.... not so "bad"
-- Jim Doyle, 5/9/10
I think it's time for an update:
Kazmir: -1.1
Hamels: 3.8
Hughes: 3.1
Gonzalez: 4.4
Gomez: -.6
Morales: -.5
So that's 2.7 WARP for Kazmir and
Hamels vs. 6.4 for the others. Impressive. Of course, it
would've been a little more impressive if this trade weren't made TWO
years ago!
Harden is definitely a risk, but
he's 2 years removed from a dominating season, and 1 year removed
from a decent season.... He can get back on track and then its a
good move.
-- Matt Clemm, 6/11/10
Rich Harden, June: 7.31 ERA in 16 IP (9
BB)
Rich Harden, July: 1.29 ERA in 7 IP (2 BB)
Rich Harden, August: 4.73 ERA in 13.1 IP (12 BB)
Still waiting for Harden to get back on
track. (And still waiting for all those mystery teams who begged
Bobby to trade Harden to them to step forward.)
I think [Eury Perez will] be on the Nats in
2013 or 2014, and I think he'll be an impact player. That's why I
scooped him up--and I'd dare say that it's also the reason Tom
graded him an A.
-- John Duel, 6/25/10
It's been awhile since we've had a Eury
Perez update, so let's correct that gross dereliction of duty right now.
In the Low-A Sally League, Lil' Eury
is hitting .294/.341/.379, with 3 homers, 22 walks and 74 strikeouts in
420 at-bats. Not much of a hitter, but with 60 stolen bases, he'll
be a helluva pinch runner! I see a budding Nyjer Morgan in this
young man.
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