January, 2011

2011 Draft Day Preview

'Tis the season to go nutty.  Time to answer the annual questions.

How does this year's auction class compare to others?

Yearly VORP totals of the 50 players in the auction confirm what we have suspected all along: this year's auction class is the worst ever.

2003: 2006.9
2004: 2210.3
2005: 2155.9
2006: 1903.2
2007: 1858.0
2008: 1522.4
2009: 1239.8
2010: 1475.4
2011: 1230.1

Logically, the longer we play this game, the better we become as GM's, and the more likely we are able to retain our best players through their prime years.  After a dozen years, we've seemingly reached a point where only a handful of quality free agents hit the market in any given year -- just as in real life.

Thankfully, we have Jim Doyle around to ensure that superstars in the peak of their careers become available once every three or four years.  This winter, however, superstar free agents are few and far between.  Looking only at the VORPs of the top ten free agents reveals this truth:

2003: 729.6
2004: 680.8
2005: 762.0
2006: 621.8
2007: 654.2
2008: 579.5
2009: 524.4
2010: 582.9
2011: 488.3

The free agent class of 2011 includes only three full-time impact bats: Robinson Cano, Jose Bautista and Paul Konerko.  Kevin Youkilis, Luke Scott, Adam Dunn and Nick Swisher comprise a second tier of useful bats.

The pickings are even slimmer on the mound.  Roy Oswalt, Shaun Marcum, Livan Hernandez, Bronson Arroyo, Colby Lewis and Ervin Santana are the top arms available (in terms of VORP.)  Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle and John Lackey form the second tier of usefulness.

While most draft classes are filled with dominant bullpen arms, this year's class is a bit lacking in that area.  Mike Adams, Francisco Rodriguez, Matt Thornton, Arthur Rhodes, Ramon Ramirez and Brandon Lyon are as close to "closer material" as you'll find in this lot.

What about the draft class?

The draft class includes the usual assortment of fallen stars such as Jeff Mathis, Aaron Hill, Nate McLouth, Jhonny Peralta, Hank Blalock, Rick Ankiel, Garrett Atkins, Nick Johnson, Carlos Pena, Brandon Inge, Andruw Jones, Scott Kazmir, Ben Sheets, Tim Wakefield and Kerry Wood.

There are also a bunch of "Peburn Specials" like Mike Cameron, Delwyn Young, Ramon Castro, Bobby Wilson, Wes Helms, Ben Francisco, Casper Wells, Chris Heisey and Jim Edmonds, who posted impressive split stats in a handful of at-bats.

There is some potential hidden value here, and it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see a few GM's pass on the auction in favor of the draft.

How much money is out there this year?

Short answer: about the same as last year.

Last year, a record percentage of available cash was spent in the auction.  This year, it seems unlikely that we'll see a repeat, as this year's auction class is nowhere near as talented.  But there is enough cash out there that we will inevitably see some inflated salaries as teams overpay for what little talent is out there.

Which teams will be spending all this money?

The Las Vegas Flamingoes ($36.8MM), Akron Ryche ($36.6MM), SoCal Slyme ($36.1MM) and Kansas Law Dogs ($30.1MM) each have more than $30 million in funny money, and can spend between $2.26MM and $3.01MM per player, on average.  All four teams have plenty of work to do this winter, simply filling holes in their starting lineups and/or rotations.

The St. Louis Apostles ($28.5MM), Allentown Ridgebacks ($28.2MM), San Antonio Broncs ($28MM), New Milford Blazers ($26.9MM) and Ravenswood Infidels ($25MM) all fall into the next tier.  The Broncs are particularly notable, as they need to fill only 7 spots on their 35-man roster -- a league-leading average of $4 million per player.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Great Lakes Sphinx ($2.4MM), Sylmar Padawans ($3MM), New York Giants ($3.3MM), Bear Country Jamboree ($7.3MM) and Niagara Locks ($7.5MM) each have less than $10 million to spend this winter, and are all but shut out of the auction.

How does the Class of 2012 look at this point?

The Class of 2012 will include much better pitching (Edwin Jackson, Brian Wilson, Francisco Liriano, C.C. Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, Jonathan Papelbon, Brett Myers and Johan Santana.)  The hitting class is comprised mostly of former superstars beyond their prime (Lance Berkman, Vladimir Guerrero, David Ortiz, Derrek Lee, Josh Willingham.)  But there will be a few hitters available who still have a little gas left in the tank (Andre Ethier, Nick Markakis, Brian McCann, Rafael Furcal, Ian Kinsler, Jayson Werth and Mark Teixeira.)