May, 2011

Top Ten Stories of 2011 (So Far)

Story #1: The A-Rod Trade

It became an instant classic the moment it was announced. This long-rumored deal was first struck during BDBL Weekend, 2010. But because Alex Rodriguez was a newly-signed Type H player, the trade could not become official until the end of the season. Apparently as part of the "bargain," Matt Clemm convinced John Duel to wait until after Cutdown Day to announce the deal, so that A-Rod's $14 million salary wouldn't count toward the Jamboree's 2011 salary cap.  It was perhaps the only good decision Clemm made in regard to this trade.

Unfortunately, because Clemm instructed Duel to sign A-Rod to a ten-year deal on Cutdown Day, A-Rod's $14 million salary will count against Bear Country's salary cap in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 AND 2020.  Rodriguez will be 43 years old at the end of that contract, which will make him the highest-paid 43-year-old in the BDBL since Roger Clemens.

The question isn't whether A-Rod will be worth his $14 million salary when he turns 43.  The question is whether he is worth $14 million right now.  And the follow-up question is whether he will be worth $14 million in ANY season between now and 2020.

Normally, a team would be willing to "pay" another team with a top prospect just to get rid of such a salary.  But not only did the Padawans not do such a thing, they actually RECEIVED a top prospect in exchange for A-Rod!  Madison Bumgarner is one of the top young pitchers in the game of baseball, and has even contributed toward the team's efforts this season.  But even in the worst-case scenario, if Bumgarner completely flops, Sylmar STILL made a great deal by dumping A-Rod's 2012 salary.

In the long history of BDBL head-scratchers, this one ranks among the head-scratchiest.

Story #2: The High-Flying Flamingos

In my pre-season preview, I predicted the Flamingos would finish the 2011 season in last place, confidently stating, "the Flamingos aren't likely to contend this season, given the absence of dominant pitching, the platoon issues on offense, and the weakness in the bottom half of the lineup."  How is that prediction working out for me?

As I type, Las Vegas currently owns the best record in the Benes Division at 35-21 (.625), and the second-best winning percentage in the Ozzie League.  The team that I claimed lacked dominant pitching ranks fourth in the OL in ERA (3.95).  The Las Vegas offense, which I claimed had platoon issues and a weak bottom half of the lineup, has scored more runs than any other team in the OL besides Los Altos, including a platoon split of 844/740.  (Note: I mentioned in the preview that the team would have trouble against lefties.)

How did I go so wrong?

On the mound, the Vegas starters are pretty much performing as expected.  Aside from the ageless Jamie Moyer (2.88 ERA in four starts), the rest of the rotation has an ERA that is only slightly higher than their MLB CERA.  The team has received some remarkable bullpen performances from J.C. Romero (0.61 ERA in 14+ IP, despite 10 walks) and Ryan Webb (0.71 ERA in 12+ IP) that are unlikely to continue forever, but otherwise is underperforming a bit.  With an MLB CERA of 3.66 as a team, perhaps I undersold the Las Vegas pitching staff.  While none of these guys (Moyer, Andy Pettitte, Bronson Arroyo, R.A. Dickey, Jason Vargas, etc.) are going to earn a single vote for the Cy Young award, they are decent enough pitchers to keep their team in the game.

Offensively, the Flamingos have received some performances from guys like Darnell McDonald (.408/.444/.632 in 76 AB), Andres Blanco (.370/.443/.500 in 54 AB), Ramon Hernandez (.336/.386/.492 in 128 AB) and Rod Barajas (.308/.354/.615 in 91 AB) that are almost guaranteed to regress a bit over the course of the season.  Against lefties, Vernon Wells owns a 1095 OPS vs. a 643 OPS in MLB, so that is bound to regress as well.  However, that regression will likely be cancelled out by Chase Utley, who has posted an OPS of just 710 vs. LH'ers this season, compared to 1003 in MLB.  The team also owns a .326 average on balls in play (a league-leading figure), which is likely to correct itself over the next four chapters.  (Though, as we learned with Corona in 2010, that correction doesn't always occur.)

The bottom line is that Las Vegas is performing far better than expected.  And given that two of the teams in their division have already fallen a dozen or more games behind, and another is too busy performing arbitrage magic tricks to field a contender, the door is wide open for Johnny Bo to capture his third division title.

Story #3: Sylvester Gives Up...Again

56 games into the season, only four games separated the four teams in the Person Division at the end of two chapters of play.  At the top of the pack were the Southern Cal Slyme, with a record of 29-27.  Yet, on May 15th, SoCal GM Bob Sylvester did what he seems to do best: he conceded the division and placed all of his best players on the Selling forum.

If this story sounds familiar, it's only because Sylvester made the same exact decision in 2007.  That year, the Slyme went into the season as the favorites to win their division.  But Sylvester didn't believe his team was good enough to compete for a championship, so just six weeks into the season he traded his best pitcher, Roger Clemens, to the heavily-favored Kansas Law Dogs (who then used Clemens to win a BDBL championship.)  Before that season ended, Sylvester also traded away Anibal Sanchez, Raul Ibanez and Jose Contreras.  And yet, despite the carnage to their roster, the Slyme continued to win, and eventually clinched the EL wild card.

This season, I predicted the Slyme would finish in second place in their division, and opined that SoCal would be battling it out against the Great Lakes Sphinx and Chicago Black Sox for the EL wild card.  But before two chapters were completed, Sylvester had already traded away Victor Martinez, Carlos Marmol, Scott Baker and Matt Garza.  And all except Garza were traded for future considerations.

Once again, despite their owner's worst efforts, the Slyme continue to win.  As I type, SoCal remains tied atop the division with the Niagara Locks with a record of 30-30.  The St. Louis Apostles (who I predicted to win this division) trail the leaders by just one game, and the South Carolina Sea Cats are just three games behind.

This is literally anyone's race to win, and yet Sylvester appears to have thrown in the towel already.  Again.  You'd think a soldier would have more fight in him than that.

Story #4: Trophy #2 for Luhning?

Of course, the main reason why Sylvester is throwing in the towel is the same reason he did so in 2007: the Kansas Law Dogs are virtually guaranteed to win the BDBL trophy this season, so why bother?

The 'Dogs went into the winter with an incredibly stacked team.  GM Chris Luhning then added Roy Oswalt and Jose Bautista -- arguably the two best free agents of the Class of 2011 -- to that already stacked roster.  Then, just to ensure that no one will ever have a chance of catching the Law Dogs this season, Luhning has added Cole Hamels, Shin-Soo Choo, Anibal Sanchez, Adam LaRoche and Michael Young through trades.

After two chapters of play, Kansas was tied with the Atlanta Fire Ants for the best record in the BDBL at 39-17 (.696).  Their runs differential of 87 ranks only third in the BDBL, but that was before the 'Dogs acquired all of those big-name impact players in trade.

Having already built up a nine game lead after just two chapters of play, it is a given that Kansas will run away with their fifth division title.  With Atlanta and Los Altos looking extremely strong, it is certainly not a given that Luhning will walk away from this season with his second BDBL trophy.  But the odds are looking pretty good at this point.

Story #5: The Great Lakes Sphinx: Finally Not Sucky

After 12 seasons of miserable, unrelenting failure, the Great Lakes Sphinx are currently leading the Eck League wild card race with a record of 30-26.  If the team continues at this pace, it will be the first time this franchise has finished with a record of .500 or better since...wait for it...1999.  Yes, the last time this franchise didn't completely suck, it was the 20th century, Tim Zigmund was still the club's owner, Slick Willie Clinton was still our president, Bryce Harper was a five-year-old T-ball superstar, our national debt was just $5.6 trillion, a gallon of gas cost just $1.17, my house was worth a lot more and our planet was a lot warmer.

Great Lakes has scored only 245 runs this season -- the fourth lowest total in the EL -- but their pitching staff has pulled up the slack by allowing only 215 runs to score against them.  The Sphinx's 3.38 team ERA is second to only the dominant Atlanta Fire Ants' staff.  In fact, the two pitching staffs couldn't be more similar after 56 games played:

Right now, Carlos Ruiz is practically carrying this team offensively.  He's hitting .368/.422/.648 on the season, with a team-leading 19 doubles and 50.4 runs created.  The problem is that he's at roughly 50% usage after only two chapters of play.  David Wright (.245/.303/.455) has been a disappointment so far, and Price Fielder (.236/.377/.472) is hardly pulling his weight.  The Sphinx will need those two players, as well as newly-acquired Kelly Johnson, to step up big-time in the second half or it could be an uphill battle.

Story #6: The New York Giants: Still Sucky

This was supposed to be the year.  After 11 miserable sub-.500 seasons, including six last-place finishes, this was supposed to be the year that Jim Doyle finally put a winning team on the field -- and perhaps even make it to the playoffs for the first time in his BDBL career.  Yet, after two chapters of play, Doyle's "Giants" are just as miserable as ever, sporting a last-place record of 22-34.

What happened?

Well, for starters, Doyle's decision to move his team into a new ballpark modeled after (surprise, surprise!) AT&T Park has proven to be disastrous.  Although it is a lovely ballpark with a lovely image of the San Francisco Bay beyond the outfield walls there in...err...New York, the team is just 9-19 at home, compared to 13-15 on the road.  Predictably, the player hardest hit by this move has been the team's biggest off-season acquisition.  Moving from the lefty-friendly confines of Cincinnati to the vast expanse of New York's Muehlebach Field has had predictable consequences for Joey Votto, as his BDBL numbers (.258/.364/.450) pale in comparison to his MLB performance (.324/.424/.600).

But it's not just Votto.  The entire team as a whole ranks 8th in the OL in runs scored, with numbers (.254/.329/.401) well below the league average in all three "slash" categories.  Unfortunately for Giants fans, the combined MLB numbers for the active players on New York's roster (.260/.331/.408) weren't much higher, so there is little reason to expect much growth on offense over the coming chapters.

Now, you may have heard that this team's namesakes, the Giants of San Francisco, won a world championship last year with an offense that was just as sucky as the BDBL's version of the Giants.  The problem is that the New York version's pitching staff hasn't been nearly as effective as San Francisco's.  While the BDBL Giants rank fourth in the OL in ERA (3.88), their bullpen has blown 10 saves in 21 opportunities already this season (an abysmal rate of 48%), and 33% of inherited runners have scored (slightly above league average), resulting in a 3-13 in one-run games (by far, the worst record in the BDBL.)

The Giants are playing six games below expectations according to the Pythagorean formula.  If they were playing to expectations, then, New York would be in second place, three games out of the division lead, and I would be writing about what a wonderful story it is that Jim Doyle is finally enjoying some success in the BDBL.  But he's not.  And so we are left with a team that is playing below expectations, that could possibly contend if they can turn it all around quickly, but will probably not reach the playoffs unless Doyle makes some very bold moves.  Given that most of the big names have already changed uniforms this season, and given that the Giants don't exactly have the trade bait to acquire such impact players anyway, I'd say we're looking at another long, disappointing season for Doyle.  But there's always next year.

Story #7: The Firesale That Wasn't

Stop me if you've heard this one: a Butler Division team was expected to win the division, but got off to a really slow start, and sported a sub-.500 record after two chapters.  After yet another disappointing series, the team's owner placed a knee-jerk "Selling" post on the forum, offering any and all star players on the roster in exchange for future considerations.  But after mulling it over for a week or so, the owner had a change of heart and decided to give it one more chapter before pulling the plug.

Yes, that is basically the story of the 2010 Salem Cowtippers.  And we all know how that story ended.  Does the same fate await the 2011 New Milford Blazers?  Probably not, as Salem's late-season surge into the BDBL World Series was unprecedented in BDBL history.  But stranger things have happened in this league.

Like the '10 Cowtippers, the Blazers have rebounded nicely from their slow start, and are sporting a 9-3 record in Chapter Three as I type.  They now sport a much more respectable 36-32 record, and trail the Cowtippers by just four games in the division.  In a dozen games this chapter, the Blazers have launched an incredible 23 home runs.  And the team seems to have built up enough momentum to carry them through the second half of the season.

Damn.

Story #8: More Arbitrage in Mississippi

In 2009, rookie GM Nic Weiss was leading his division when he suddenly decided to tear apart his team and build for the future.  In a series of 11 trades (made mostly during BDBL Weekend), Weiss dealt away Damaso Marte, Tim Hudson, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Kazmir, Magglio Ordonez, Andrew McCutchen, Orlando Hudson and Jimmy Rollins, and added Troy Tulowitzki, Erik Bedard, Andre Ethier, Mike Pelfrey, Mike Adams, Andrew Bailey, Ted Lilly and Dan Uggla, among others.  The team finished seven games out of first place.

In 2010, Weiss' Mississippi Meatballs sat just three games out of the OL wild card race, with a record of 30-26 (.536).  But two chapters into the season, he traded superstar Manny Ramirez and Phil Coke to the Cleveland Rocks in exchange for Alex Gordon and Tanner Scheppers, explaining that this trade was made for "arbitrage" reasons.  He later made several more arbitrage-type trades and ended up once again in second place -- five games behind the wild card winner.

It is now the third full year of Weiss' tenure as GM of the Meatballs franchise.  Once again, the Meatballs were predicted to compete for a division title.  Once again, the Meatballs are performing admirably, with a record of 31-25 (.554) -- just three games behind the division leaders.  And once again, Weiss is trading away most of his star players for future considerations in the name of arbitrage.

This past deadline, Weiss traded Cole Hamels to the already-loaded Kansas Law Dogs, getting Luke Hochevar and prospects in exchange.  He then dealt Mariano Rivera to the St. Louis Apostles in exchange for Arthur Rhodes and Bengie Molina.  (I'm still not sure how that fits into the "arbitrage" category.)  And Victor Martinez (and his $10MM salary in 2012) was picked up in exchange for Gordon and two others.

What we're left with is a team that is now much stronger behind the plate (as Jason Varitek had been doing most of the catching up to this point), but now has a gaping hole in the starting rotation where Hamels once lived.  That, and the team is now committed to spending a whopping $39.7 million in 2012 on the following group of players: Carlos Beltran, Derek Jeter, Victor Martinez, Luke Hochevar and Huston Street.

And to think, when Sharky left his post we all thought that this franchise would finally see a little more stability and rationality.

Story #9: The Los Altos Undertakers: Still Dominate Dominant After All These Years

Yawn.  Forgive me, but after two seasons of watching the Undertakers completely dominate this league, winning 226 games over the past two seasons, it gets a little monotonous after awhile.  Los Altos is on a pace to win "only" 108 games this season, which I suppose is a step in the right direction for the rest of us.  But let's face it: this is Jeff Paulson's world; the rest of us are just living in it.

Los Altos currently leads the BDBL in runs differential, which is a better indicator of dominance than wins and losses.  In total, the Undertakers have outscored their opponents by -- get this -- 836 runs over the past 2 1/3 seasons.  That averages to 2.2 runs per game!  Imagine spotting a team two runs before each game even begins, and you begin to appreciate what those of us in the Ozzie League have been dealing with for three years now.

When I first established the BDBL, I dreamed of building a team from the farm system up, locking in young superstars for several years, allowing me the financial flexibility to spend big bucks on free agents and dominate the league for a decade or more.  Jeff Paulson is living my dream.  And I hate him for it.

Story #10: The Padawans in Contention

Like John Duel's favorite MLB team, the Padawans seem to make a habit of defying expectations.  This year's team looked so bad on paper, I predicted a last-place finish for them in my Season Preview, and couldn't even find one nice thing to say about them in the "Strengths" section.  Yet, two chapters into the season, Sylmar is sporting a 30-26 (.536) record, is tied for second place in the Griffin Division, and trails the OL wild card race by just a game.

Boy, is my face red.

As I predicted in the Season Preview, the Padawans' offense has been bloody awful.  They are hitting just .248/.309/.364 as a team, and rank dead-last in the BDBL in runs scored, with 218.  That is an average of fewer than four runs per game.

Obviously, then, their pitching must be carrying them.  So far, that is the case, as the Pads own an OL-leading 3.20 ERA, and are ranked second in the OL in opponents OPS at .684.  Despite the fact that nearly every pitcher on the Sylmar staff pitches for an MLB team that plays in a drastic pitcher's park, practically each and every one of them has posted an ERA that is lower (in most cases, much lower) than his MLB ERA.  Jon Garland (2.81 ERA vs. 3.46 in MLB) leads the staff in several categories, including wins and innings pitched.  Jonathan Sanchez (2.80 ERA vs. 3.07 in MLB) has 84 strikeouts in 74 innings, and shares the team lead in wins with six.  Mike Pelfrey (2.83 ERA vs. 3.66 in MLB) also owns 6 wins on the season despite a 33/51 BB/K ratio in 86 innings.

So what's the deal?  Is the Pads pitching staff really this good?  Well, you could point to the team's .274 average on balls in play (#1 in the OL) and credit either good defense or good fortune for that.  Or, you could look at their 16.7% scoring rate for inherited base runners (also #1 in the OL -- by a long shot) and credit either clutch relief pitching or good fortune.  And you could look at those two factors and come to the conclusion that either regression will catch up to them eventually this season, or that Sylmar will continue to defy the odds throughout the season as the Corona Confederates did throughout 2010.

My bet is that regression catches up to Sylmar, and they play sub-.500 ball the rest of the way.  But I'll bet you all knew I'd write that.