May, 2012

Chapter Two Recap

Players of the Chapter

This winter, Jim Doyle had $19.3 million to spend on 16 players.  His offense consisted of Billy Butler, Brett Gardner and David DeJesus.  He had gaping holes at catcher, shortstop, third base and left field.  And he had spent his off-season trading away his best two hitters (Joey Votto and Nelson Cruz) in exchange for prospects.  Given all of that, no one in his right mind could have ever predicted that Doyle would spend $13 million (more than two-thirds of his total spending money) on a 29-year-old catcher.  But as we all know, Doyle isn't in his right mind.

Doyle's $13 million investment, Mike Napoli, is our OL Hitter of the Chapter.  Napoli hit a cool .386/.548/.639 in Chapter Two, with a league-leading 30.8 runs created.  On the season, he is hitting .374/.538/.748, with 18 homers in 54 games, and 22 intentional walks.  He has created 30% of all the runs created by the Giants this season, and has racked up more than half of his allotted plate appearances already this season.  As a result, New York is sporting a record of...27-29.  Which brings to mind the question that Anthony Peburn asked on the night that Jim Doyle won the bidding war for Napoli: "Jim, why on earth do you need Napoli for $13MM?"

Over in the Eck League, three teams were playing musical chairs at the third base position throughout the off-season.  The Kansas Law Dogs began the winter with a logjam at third base that included both Jose Bautista and Michael Young, so they flipped Young to the Great Lakes Sphinx.  But the Sphinx already had a quality third baseman in David Wright, so Wright was then flipped to St. Louis.  But the Apostles already had a quality third baseman (or, at least, a quality player who qualified at third) in Albert Pujols, so they immediately flipped Wright to Mississippi.  Nine days later, Pujols was traded to Corona, leaving a hole at the hot corner in St. Louis.  The next day, Great Lakes acquired another third baseman, Kevin Youkilis, from Southern Cal.  So, less than a week later, Great Lakes then flipped Young to St. Louis.

Are you keeping up with this?

In the end, Great Lakes ended up with Youkilis, Kansas ended up with Bautista, and St. Louis ended up with the Eck League's Chapter Two Hitter of the Chapter.  Just feast your eyes on Michael Young's numbers in Chapter Two: .431/.459/.603, 25 RBI, 33.1 RC.  And thus, Young becomes the latest in a very long line of hitters that hits WAY over his head while playing in St. Louis.

I normally don't reward pitchers for won-loss records, but it's difficult to ignore C.J. Wilson's stellar 6-0 record in Chapter Two.  Six wins in one chapter is a true rarity.  He also posted a 2.66 ERA on the chapter, and held opponents to a .221/.277/.307 batting line, while pitching in a drastic hitter's park.  Of course, Wilson's story is well known by now.  The most talented pitcher available on the free agent market this winter, Wilson inexplicably signed for just $8 million after all the other teams simply stopped bidding (or ran out of money.)  Wilson went for $5.5 million less than C.C. Sabathia, whose MLB numbers are comparable.  And he signed for just $1 million more than Brandon McCarthy, who isn't even in the same species as Wilson.  Without question, Wilson is among the greatest bargains in BDBL auction history.  Thanks, BDBL.

While posting a 6-0 record in a chapter is a rarity, and is deserving of recognition, I am not awarding the EL Pitcher of the Chapter award to Kansas starter Doug Fister this chapter.  Although Fister also went 6-0, and posted a more-than-respectable 2.54 ERA, I have to give the nod to Akron's Justin Verlander, who led the league in strikeouts (57), ranked #2 in ERA (1.83), and led the league in all three triple-slash categories (.160/.227/.246.)  The dude allowed a 473 opponents OPS last chapter.  That's just sick.  And have I mentioned lately that I drafted Verlander as a sophomore in college, and traded him for Kris Honel?  True story.

Top Ten Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Chamra Resigns

It is always a bittersweet occasion whenever someone leaves our elite club, and Tony Chamra's recent resignation is no exception.  Tony joined the league in 2000, when he was a fresh-faced 23-year-old college student.  He was the second-youngest league member at the time (behind only our Boy Wonder, Bobby Sylvester), and he inherited a franchise that finished the 2000 season with a record near .500 (79-81.)

He wasted no time molding the franchise to his own tastes, and jettisoned a bunch of failed prospects like Ruben Mateo, Ruben Rivera and Ben Grieve, while adding veterans like Mo Vaughn and Bernie Williams.  The end result was a team that finished with the exact same record as the year before.

Chamra followed his rookie effort with a respectable 87-73 record in 2002, but finished far behind in the wild card race.  He then spent the next three seasons spinning his wheels, finishing below .500 each year.  But behind the scenes, he was formulating a master plan that involved stockpiling top prospects through trading away star players.  In the three seasons following that 2002 season, Chamra acquired several top young players, including Garrett Atkins, Adam Wainwright, Rich Harden, Casey Kotchman, Travis Hafner, Joe Blanton, Dan Haren, Nick Swisher and Dontrelle Willis.

And in 2006, all of those young stars miraculously aligned in perfect formation.  After several years of refusing to part with his young players, Chamra finally traded some of them away for a few missing pieces of the puzzle.  The result was the ultimate reward: the coveted BDBL championship trophy.

Unfortunately for Chamra, success was fleeting.  Many of those prospects turned out to be one-year wonders.  The ones that succeeded long-term (such as Wainwright, Hafner and Haren) were either traded away or became free agents shortly after that magical '06 season.  And Chamra wasn't able to replace them with a new wave of talent in the farm system or through trade.  As a result, Villanova followed their 101-win championship season with five straight sub-.500 finishes.

Chamra's career is filled with memorable (and sometimes controversial) events, such as his decision to leave several million on the table in the draft, his trades of several "untradeable" contracts (including Ken Griffey, Jr.'s $10 million salary and Rich Harden's nine-year contract), and his decision to pay nearly $30 million in penalties one winter.

In the end, what I will remember most about Tony are the times I spent with him at various BDBL Weekends, simply chatting about real life outside of baseball.  I'll remember his love for avocados and his dog, and I'll be forever grateful for all the help he has given me through the years in running this league.  I'd like to thank Tony for all the time and effort he's put into this league, and I wish him the best of luck.

Story #2: Weiss Dealing Again

Once again, the Benes Division appears to be the division where some team will win by default.  To date, the Mississippi Meatballs own a commanding seven-game lead in the division, but only because no other team seems to be giving much of an effort.

In Chapter One, Mississippi went 18-10, while Ravenswood went 16-12 and the other two teams (New York and Las Vegas) were well below .500.  In Chapter Two, the standings nearly flipped: Vegas went 17-11, while New York and Mississippi followed with 16-12 records, and Ravenswood went just 10-18.

A true picture emerges when you look at the runs differential column.  Here, Mississippi owns a differential of +43, while Vegas stands at +9, and the other two teams are at -1 and -6.  It is clear that the Meatballs are the class of this division.  As if that weren't apparent enough, however, GM Nic Weiss recently made a move to ensure that his team will finish on top of this division for the second year in a row.

This past chapter, Weiss made a deal with the white-hanky-waving Great Lakes Sphinx in which the Meatballs added an impact bat (Nelson Cruz) and an inning-eating starter (Aaron Harang.)  Cruz owns severely lopsided splits (1096/747) that will come in handy against several of Mississippi's potential playoff rivals' southpaws, including Clayton Kershaw, C.J. Wilson, Madison Bumgarner, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, Derek Holland and C.C. Sabathia.

It's a curious route for Cruz, as he began the off-season as a member of Mississippi's division rival, the New York Giants.  New York's GM, Jim Doyle, traded Cruz to the Great Lakes Sphinx (along with B.J. Upton, stud prospect Mike Moustakas and two other valuable bats for the 2012 season) in exchange for Zack Greinke, Brett Gardner and Yonder Alonso.  Greinke was then flipped that same day for a bunch of prospects.  So, essentially, Mississippi's top rival in the division traded their top hitter -- along with their top prospect and top pitcher -- for a bunch of prospects, and then watched helplessly as that hitter was then traded to their rival.  Is it any wonder that the Giants haven't finished above .500 since the Clinton administration?

Although Harang's MLB stats are greatly inflated by his home ballpark, and although he has been beaten up badly in the BDBL this season (1-9, 8.76 ERA), he is a sorely-needed component on a Meatballs staff that barely pitched enough MLB innings to cover an entire BDBL season.  From Weiss' perspective, he can only hope that Harang will benefit from the change of scenery.  He certainly couldn't perform any worse.

And what did Weiss sacrifice for these two essential components?  In essence, two farm picks (Nestor Molina and David Dahl, drafted #1 and #3 in this January's farm draft), Andrew Oliver (a castaway from the Giants franchise) and Daniel Norris (an MLB 2nd round draft pick who has yet to throw a single professional pitch.)  Oh, and Jorge Cantu, who was just released this past chapter.

That's what I call "arbitrage."

Story #3: San Antonio Swept

On January 20th, Greg Newgard wrote 14 words he now wishes he could take back: "I'm winning this division by five games or more.  Take it to the bank."  That same day, John Duel made that his signature on the BDBL forum.  He nailed those words to his locker room bulletin board, gave a rousing Knute Rockne-like speech to his troops, and the entire Padawans team charged onto the field on Opening Day, screaming like the Scottish warriors onto the battlefield in Braveheart.

Well, at least, that's John Duel's version of the story.

The more realistic version is that Greg's optimistic trash-talk was a response to my statement that the Broncs were "struggling to field a competitive team."  He was simply engaging in a little bravado to stir the pot.  Unfortunately for him, that pot came to a boiling head in Chapter Two, when the Broncs and Padawans met head-to-head for the second time this season.

In their first meeting, the Padawans took three games out of four at home, with each game decided by a margin of only one or two runs.  The fourth and final game of the series was decided with an 11th inning, two-run, walk-off home run by Hunter Pence off of Neftali Feliz.

Although San Antonio was expected to be competitive this season, they finished with a disappointing 12-16 record after one chapter, thanks in part to that unfortunate series against their main rival.  Needless to say, they were looking for a bit of revenge in Chapter Two.

In the first game of their four-game set against Sylmar in Chapter Two, however, Padawans starter Carl Pavano tossed a complete game 6-hitter, allowing just two runs en route to a victory.  In Game Two, Broncs starter Randy Wolf was pounded for three runs in the first inning, and SEVEN overall, in just six innings.

The Broncs finally managed to bust out of the gate in the third game, and handed a 4-1 lead over to their bullpen heading into the ninth.  But with Feliz standing on the hill, the Padawans managed to load the bases with two outs.  Feliz then walked two batters in a row, and Newgard responded by pulling him from the game in favor of Rafael Perez.  Perez then served up a grand slam home run to Lance Berkman, giving Sylmar a SIX-RUN inning, and, eventually, the win.

In the fourth and final game, Slymar once again pounced all over the San Antonio bullpen in the top of the ninth, scoring three runs to make it a 7-2 game.  The Broncs fought back, scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth, but fell short when Josh Willingham and Miguel Montero struck out and grounded out (respectively) to end the game.

The end result was a four-game sweep by the Padawans.  Two weeks later, Newgard officially waved the white flag.  And on April 28th, he made his first official "white flag" trade, dealing Melky Cabrera, Anibal Sanchez and Ryan Madson to Chicago in exchange for Adam Jones and Ryan Dempster.

When you think about it, it really is amazing how the entire fate of a season can be altered with a few random dice rolls.  Just a few extra clutch base hits would have meant the difference between a 4-4 record between these two rivals instead of the 7-1 record we see today.  And if that were the case, the Broncs would be buyers right now instead of sellers.  Ain't baseball a bitch?

Story #4: The Trade That Wasn't

Speaking of trades that might have happened in some parallel universe, it isn't difficult to imagine a universe where a team like the Cowtippers are swept by a horrendous team like the Granite State Lightning, and the immediate reaction is for the 'Tippers GM to engage in a wholesale fire sale to end all fire sales.  In fact, we've seen this scenario played out time and time again through the years.  Which is probably why this particular April Fool's prank fell a little short in terms of generating an appropriate amount of outrage and indignation.

Don't get me wrong.  I really enjoyed Tom's comment, suggesting that the Ozzie League change our name to either the "Aunt Jemima League", "Strawberry Shortcake League" or the "Princess Diana League."  But in general, the response was far more muted than I had hoped when I concocted this devious prank.

I think the reason for that muted response is that we've become so accustomed to seeing good teams completely dismantle themselves in the name of "future value" whenever the slightest mishap occurs.  And really, this boils down to the age-old conundrum: is it better to field a competitive team year after year and take your chances in the Tournament of Randomness?, or is it better to throw all future considerations aside and simply GO FOR IT in the here-and-now?

There are valid arguments to be made on both sides, and it's impossible to pick a winner.  But just because there are no winners doesn't mean the argument isn't incredibly thought-provoking.

Story #5: The Chicago Turnaround

It would have been incredibly easy for Chicago Black Sox GM John Gill to throw in the towel after his disappointing 11-17 start.  And it is very easy to imagine a parallel universe where a parallel John Gill decides to throw in the towel after one chapter and completely overhaul his team.  If this scenario seems all-too-plausible, it's probably because you remember the 2004 season, when Chicago inexplicably began the year with a 4-24 record in Chapter One, and Gill put his entire team on the Selling forum in early March.  In the end, he decided to stick it out for one more chapter, and the Black Sox responded with a 22-6 record in Chapter Two -- the best record in the BDBL.  They followed that with an 18-6 record in Chapter Three, and finished the season with 102 wins.

Similarly, after Chicago's 11-17 start to this season, they really cranked up the heat in the second chapter, and finished with the best record of any team in the BDBL, at 23-5.  Chicago outscored their opponents by 67 runs during the chapter -- by far the highest margin in the BDBL.

John Gill wrapped up his stellar chapter by swapping Adam Jones and Ryan Dempster for Melky Cabrera, Anibal Sanchez and Ryan Madson.  Even if you consider Jones and Dempster to be a wash with Cabrera and Sanchez (which is a very forgiving comparison), Madson is a hugely important addition to the Chicago team, given the struggles of this bullpen to date.  The Black Sox rank #1 in the Eck League in blown saves, and own a below-average 28.6% rate on inherited runners scored.  Swapping Jones for Cabrera gives Chicago a much-needed right-handed bat, and Sanchez should fill in capably for Dempster (who struggled a bit with a 4.23 ERA vs. a team ERA of just 3.51.)

Story #6: Kansas/Allentown Square Off

Although it seems as though Kansas and Allentown have battled for the top spot in the Higuera Division every year since Tom's arrival in the league, these two teams have really only competed for the same title twice in the past ten years.  In every other year, the two franchises took turns competing and rebuilding.

In 2003, the Law Dogs won the division title by six games over the wild-card-winning Ridgebacks.  They then faced off head-to-head in the EL Division Series, and co-MVP's Corey Koskie and Manny Ramirez carried Allentown to an upset series victory in six games.  The Ridgebacks rode that momentum all the way into the World Series, where they suffered their one and only Series defeat at the hands of Paul Marazita and some guy named Clay Condrey.

In 2008, Allentown won the division title by four games over the Law Dogs.  Despite winning 96 games that year, Kansas was shut out of the post-season thanks to the St. Louis Apostles, who finished the season with 98 wins.  Again, Allentown advanced all the way to the World Series, where Tom won the third of his four trophies.

The Ridgebacks were expected to run away with the Higuera Division this season, while the 'Dogs were expected to be highly competitive in the wild card race.  56 games into the season, however, Allentown is hardly running away with anything.  Just one game separates the two teams after two chapters of play.

After splitting their first head-to-head series in Chapter One, the Law Dogs made a huge statement by winning three of four against Allentown on the road in Chapter Two.  Gaby Sanchez broke a tied game in the 6th inning of the first game, clubbing a two-run homer en route to a 5-3 Kansas win.  In the second game, Kansas overcame a 3-0 deficit by rallying for five runs against the Allentown bullpen in the 8th and 9th innings.  Pinch hitter Jose Tabata delivered the deciding blow with a two-run single in the 9th off of Johnny Venters.  The score was tied once again in the 7th inning of Game Three, when Sanchez once again stepped up with a clutch RBI double.  And once again, the Kansas bullpen did a stellar job holding that score to secure the series victory.  Finally, in the fourth game, Allentown managed to avoid the sweep thanks to the strange ongoing dominance of Chien-Ming Wang, who allowed just one run over seven innings to lower his ERA to 1.85 on the season.

Both rivals have a chance to pad their records in Chapter Three, as they will face the watered-down Griffin Division in interleague play.  While Kansas GM Chris Luhning made a move to beef up his bullpen this past chapter, adding Mark Melancon to the mix, Allentown GM Tom DiStefano has been content to stand pat with his current roster for at least another chapter.

Not only has the Higuera Division race been tighter than most suspected, but the EL wild card race is also far more competitive than anyone imagined, with four teams within two games of each other.  There are currently six teams sporting a winning percentage above .570, and only four of those teams will make it to the playoffs.  This could be a very exciting second half in the Eck League.

Story #7: Corona's Devastating 1-2 Punch

Anyone who has faced the Corona Confederates this season knows all too well that there is no pitching around Albert Pujols and Joey Votto.  Those two monsters have feasted on Ozzie League pitching all season long, and it seems as though neither one can go more than two at-bats without an extra base hit.

To date, Votto is batting .347/.465/.668, with 16 homers.  He seems to enjoy his new home in Corona much better than his old "New York" home.  Pujols is batting a robust .324/.388/.589, also with 16 homers.  He has made a seamless transition to the Ozzie League after a decade of dominance in the Eck League.

Together, the two have combined for 104.6 runs created, which is over 35% of the team's total runs created.  That puts them on a pace to create 298.9 runs this season, which piqued my curiosity.  I couldn't help but wonder whether Votto and Pujols are on pace to become the most dominant offensive teammates in league history.  So I ran a little query.  And incredibly, that duo wouldn't even rank among the top ten:

That 2002 Allentown team was by far the most dominant ballclub in league history.  Not only did that team feature the crushing duo of Bonds and Martinez, but there was a third hitter in that lineup who also finished the season with 140+ runs created: Manny Ramirez.  Together, those three created 520.8 runs, which is nearly as many runs as the entire Bear Country Jamboree offense created last season.

The 2001 Chicago lineup was equally impressive.  Not only did that lineup feature Delgado and Garciaparra, but John Gill also traded for Manny Ramirez during the season.  If you count Ramirez's total runs created from that season, that would give the duo of Delgado and Ramirez 385 runs created, which would rank #1 all-time.  And if you add together the total runs created for Delgado, Ramirez and Garciaparra, that would give the trio 531.9 runs created, which would top Allentown's trio.

The most impressive franchise on this list is Bobby's Sylvester's St. Louis franchise, which appears three times among the top ten, thanks in large part to the presence of Pujols.

Interestingly, this top ten list includes seven playoff teams and one league champion.  Is that all it takes to build a winner?  Two great hitters?  If so, that's a great sign for the Confederates.

Story #8: The OL Wild Card Race Gets Interesting

Two years ago, I predicted the Corona Confederates would finish in third place in the Butler Division.  I said their starting rotation was "just horrendous", and added that the bullpen didn't look much better.  I stated that the once-proud franchise was in trouble.  "The farm system is completely barren," I wrote.  And I concluded: "Corona needs to work overtime this summer [to find] some way to improve this team's fortunes, or it's going to be a long decade for Ed McGowan."

Well...that very same season the Confederates won the Butler Division by one game over the Cowtippers.  Boy, was my face red.

As I had predicted (a year too soon, evidently), the Corona franchise fell into a state of disarray in 2011, winning just 66 games and finishing in third place.  But rather than embark on a massive rebuilding project, GM Ed McGowan decided to go for it in 2012.

Of course, this was not the first time Ed McGowan made such a bold decision.  Students of BDBL history may remember the 2007 season, when McGowan spent a whopping $21 million on Johan Santana in an effort to "go for it".  A few days later, McGowan decided that the mayor of the Lollipop Guild, David Eckstein, was the missing piece to Corona's championship puzzle.  So he traded his top prospect, a fella by the name of Ryan Braun, to acquire that piece.  He ended up trading Santana just a few short months later, and the 'Feds finished that season with a 73-87 record.

This winter, McGowan once again flipped the bird toward standard wisdom, and acquired two MVP-caliber hitters (Albert Pujols and Joey Votto) in trade, and added a Cy Young candidate (C.C. Sabathia) through free agency.  Once again, I predicted the Confederates would finish in third place in the division, but only because of stiff competition.  "Ed McGowan always finds a way to make a nuisance of himself," I wrote, "and this year is no different.  The Confederates will battle with the Cowtippers for the title of 'Second Best' the entire season."

So far, that prediction has proven prescient.  Corona trails the Cowtippers by just one game in the division.  But with the New Milford Blazers running away with it, it seems like an exercise in futility, regardless.

Story #9: The Race for Worst

Last chapter on this page, I openly wondered whether the Granite State Lightning would break the all-time BDBL record for losses in a single season.  But I completely overlooked the horribleness that is the Villanova Mustangs.  The 'Stangs went just 5-23 last chapter -- a .179 winning percentage that only the Charlotte Bobcats could admire.  Incredibly, Villanova has now surpassed the Lightning for the worst record in the BDBL.  Their .232 overall winning percentage would translate to a 37-123 record over a full season, which would shatter the Atlanta Fire Ants' mark of 118 losses.

Granite State, meanwhile, is sporting a .250 winning percentage, which is the same as their Chapter One record.  If nothing else, they are consistent.  The Lightning are also on pace to shatter Atlanta's record.  Unfortunately for both teams, our draft order is changing in 2013, so they are no longer battling for the #1 draft pick.  In fact, there is no longer any motivation for either team to finish this season with more losses.

Which is a good thing, right?

Story #10: Overperformers & Underperformers

Here are a few overperforming hitters after two chapters of play:

And a few underperforming hitters: