March, 2014

Chapter One Recap

Players of the Chapter

When Mike Stein signed 37-year-old outfielder Torii Hunter to a Type H contract in the winter of 2013, it was thought that he would come to regret it.  Hunter performed admirably for the Rocks in 2013, as expected.  But quite unexpectedly, he enjoyed another good MLB season at the plate, and his contract retained enough appeal that Stein was able to trade him this past winter.  In that deal, Hunter was sent packing to the Los Altos Undertakers, along with catcher A.J. Ellis, and the Rocks received Bartolo Colon and Drew Stubbs in exchange.  And that, my friends, is how Torii Hunter (.378/.417/.685, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 32.8 RC) became the OL's Hitter of the Chapter in Chapter One.

The Eck League Hitter of the Chapter was also acquired this past winter via trade.  Hanley Ramirez (.400/.446/.800, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 29.1 RC) came to the Wyoming Ridgebacks two days before Thanksgiving as part of a six player deal with the Great Lakes Sphinx.  That was the trade that sent Carlos Santana and Ryan Braun to the Sphinx.

The OL Pitcher of the Chapter was Clayton Kershaw (6-1, 1.34 ERA, .185/.229/.256 against).  Whatever.  Nothing new to see here.  Move along.

Long-suffering New York Giants fans are likely asking themselves why their team is never able to get any decent pitching.  One of the answers is that Jim Doyle keeps trading them all away.  One example is our newest EL Pitcher of the Chapter, Jose Fernandez, who was traded by Doyle back in 2012 in exchange for Adrian Beltre.  That trade made little sense at the time, as the Giants were going nowhere (although they finished with their best record in the Doyle Era at 79-81), and Beltre was a free agent at the end of the season.  They basically traded a franchise pitcher in exchange for 166 plate appearances...and STILL finished below .500!  I won't even mention that Doyle also threw in a cheap Ricky Nolasco.  (Oops, I just did.)

Top Ten Stories of the Chapter

Story #2: The First Place Great Lakes Sphinx

Raise your hand if you saw this coming.  The Great Lakes Sphinx posted the best record in the Eck League in Chapter One, and tied with the New Milford Blazers for the best record in the entire BDBL, at 19-9.  They are performing this magic trick almost entirely with pitching, as they rank just eighth in the league in runs scored.

If a single pitcher posted the stats of the Sphinx staff, he would surely win the Cy Young award: 19-9 record, 2.47 ERA, 259 IP, 204 H, 80 BB, 240 K.  This, despite the fact that their pitching staff is a Who's Who of "Who??"

Nathan Eovaldi, who tossed just 106+ innings in MLB last year, has been the best starting pitcher on the staff thus far, as he's allowed only 6 earned runs in 33+ innings (a 1.60 ERA.)  Hector Santiago is the team's second best starter in terms of ERA (1.93 in 23+ IP), and Tim Lincecum finished the chapter with a 2-0 record and a 2.25 ERA.

As impressive as Great Lakes' starters have been, their bullpen is even more impressive.  Combined, Kevin Gregg, Sandy Rosario and James Russell have yet to allow an inning in more than 23 innings this season.  And Louis Coleman has allowed only 2 earned runs in more than 20 innings of relief.  Add it together, and you have four Great Lakes relievers who have allowed a total of 2 earned runs in 43 innings this season!

Of course, these pitchers can't possibly maintain this pace, and regression will come swiftly and severely to Great Lakes.  The Sphinx also played a very fortunate schedule in Chapter One, where 20 of their 28 games were played at home (where they went 16-4.) As they play more road games, their record will surely regress even further.  But for now, it makes for a fun story.

Story #2: The Fantasyland of New Milford

Outside of New Milford, BDBL teams have posted a .547 winning percentage at home.  If the Blazers were winning their home games at the same rate, their overall record would be 14-14, and the topic of this story would be what a great division race the Butler Division was turning out to be.

Instead, the Blazers are winning 80% of their home games, thanks to their ridiculous cartoon ballpark and ridiculously lopsided roster, and they now sit three games ahead in the division.  If they maintain this pace, it will be the second year in a row in which New Milford has won 80% of its home games, and the third year in a row in which their home winning percentage was over 76%.

For all intents and purposes, this division race ended on Opening Day, when the Blazers swept the Cowtippers in four games at home.  That series perfectly illustrated the futility of playing New Milford in a ballpark where every one of their players gets a 10-30% boost in performance before a single pitch is thrown, and nearly every one of their opponents is punished at the same rate.  It's like playing chess against someone who insists upon making the first ten moves.

Story #3: Griffin Division Logjam

At the end of one chapter of play, all we can say about the fate of the Griffin Division at this point is that the Kansas City Boulevards probably won't win it.  Only one team in the BDBL posted a record worse than KC's, and that team needs no introduction.  The other three teams in the division are all tied for first place, with a record of 14-14.

Only one of those three teams -- Flagstaff -- has outscored their opponents this season.  The Outlaws' pitching and defense have carried them thus far, as they rank #4 in the Ozzie League in fewest runs allowed.  John Lackey (1-1, 2.10 ERA in 34+ IP) and Ubaldo Jimenez (4-2, 2.50 ERA in 36 IP) are the only two starters on the staff who are tearing it up at the moment.  It is the bullpen that has carried the Outlaws thus far.  Luis Avilan and Drake Britton (who and who?) haven't allowed a single run in more than 10 innings so far, Jesse Chavez (who?) is sporting a 1.54 ERA in 11+ innings, and Luke Hochevar (hey, I know that guy!) is leading the team with 5 saves, and owns a 2.31 ERA in 11+ innings.

Interestingly, Flagstaff had very little success against their own division in Chapter One.  They won three of four against Kansas City, but lost three of four to both Los Altos and Bear Country.

Story #4: The Incredibly Shrinking Offense

Small sample size caveats apply, but to this point, the 2014 season is shaping up to be the weakest year in BDBL history in terms of offense.  Collectively, the league has posted an OPS of just .702, which is 21 points below the previous low (set in 2012), and a runs per game average of just 4.0, which is 40% below the previous low mark (also set in 2012.)

Of course, this falls in line with Major League Baseball, which also saw a drastic drop in offense last season.  MLB averaged just 4.17 runs per game, which was the lowest since 1992.

If you look at the historical MLB record, offense seems to follow a fairly predictable wave pattern -- and we haven't even come close to reaching the bottom of that wave just yet.

Story #5: Benes Division Wackiness

There is a lot of white noise mucking up the Benes Division standings, it seems.  The Mississippi Meatballs currently lead the division, but by only one game.  Las Vegas trails by one, and the expected division winner, Ravenswood, trails by two.  A deeper dive into the numbers reveals some wackiness that will likely shake out over the next chapter and give us a clearer picture as to who will end up on top in this division.

Incredibly, the Flamingos have already played SEVENTEEN games that have been decided by just one run.  That's more than 60% of their total games played!  Even more incredibly, they are 11-6 in those one-run games.  That record seems unsustainable, given that it has been primarily driven by the extraordinary performances of Randy Choate (1.59 ERA in 11+ IP) and Matt Belisle (1.69 ERA in 10+ IP).  Adding to the amazement is the unlikely dominance of Bud Norris (2-0, 1.83 ERA in 39+ IP).  None of these performances are likely to continue for much longer.

Over in Ravenswood, the Infidels have had the opposite problem, as their bullpen has been blowing games left and right.  Already in this young season, Ravenswood has lost four games in which they were leading after seven innings.

The Meatballs aren't likely to suffer any problems with their bullpen, given their recent acquisition of Aroldis Chapman.  If there has been a more dominant one-two punch in any bullpen in BDBL history, I can't think of one.

Story #6: Corona Conflagration

It is indeed a rarity to see a team outscore their opponents by 26 runs in a chapter and finish with a record of 12-16, and yet the Corona Confederates have somehow achieved this feat.  They averaged 7.3 runs per game in their 12 wins, and just 1.6 runs per game in their 16 losses.

Will the real Corona Confederates please stand up??

Story #7: The New York Giants...Ugh

Fifteen years in a row.  FIFTEEN.  You would think a team could accidentally finish above .500 in one year out of fifteen, where a few random balls bounce in their favor.  But no.

The Giants finished with the worst record (8-20) in the BDBL this chapter, and have already been outscored by 53 runs.  A year ago at this time, they owned the same 8-20 record after a chapter of play, but had "only" been outscored by 39 runs.  They're going backwards, people.

Story #8: The Lost Art of Stealing Bases

You would think that in a year of depressed offense, more teams would be playing station-to-station baseball.  Instead, there seems that the strategy of stealing bases is less popular than ever.  As a whole, the league has swiped only 206 bags, and has a success rate of just 66%.

Nine teams in the BDBL have attempted to steal ten or fewer times.  The Blazers are 0-for-1 in steal attempts.  And the Akron Ryche have yet to attempt a steal.

Story #9: The Battle of the Hrbek

By a 16-2 league vote, the Chicago Black Sox were expected to run away with the Higuera Division this year.  But yet again, Chicago stumbled out of the gate, and holds a record two games below .500.  Despite the subpar performance, there are reasons for optimism in Chicago.

The Black Sox played 20 of their 28 games on the road in Chapter One, and held their own with a 10-10 record.  Oddly enough, they went just 3-5 at home, which is a rate they are sure to improve.  Keep in mind, however, that the Black Sox have historically underperformed at home.  Last season, they were one of only two teams in the BDBL that won more games on the road than at home.  They repeated that feat in 2012 as well.  Maybe it's time to change those ballpark factors, eh?

For the moment, the Akron Ryche hold first place in the division, on the strength of their remarkable 8-2 record in one-run games.  That is something that tends to even out over the course of a full season, and isn't likely sustainable, especially given the fact that the Ryche have only outscored their opponents by nine runs so far this season.

The Charlotte Mustangs are the third team in the division that has outscored their opponents (by five runs) this season.  They have been winning with pitching (team ERA of 2.88), led by Clay Buchholz (1-3, 2.03 ERA in 48+ IP) and Julio Teheran (5-2, 2.30 ERA in 47 IP.)  Unfortunately for Charlotte fans, those two pitchers are already at 45% and 25% of their total usage already.  Eventually, both will have to sit.

Story #10: Cuenca Franchise Becomes an Orphan Once More

With the sudden departure of Mike Quinn last month, the Cuenca Strangegloves franchise is once again without an owner.  This franchise has been a revolving door since Tony Chamra left in 2012.  Neither Matt Decrevel nor Kevin Nichols managed to stick with the team, and they ended up losing 113 games that season.

Quinn took over the franchise in October of that year.  His first major decision was to trade the face of the franchise, Andrew McCutchen, to the Southern Cal Slyme in exchange for Yu Darvish.  Of course, McCutchen then led the Slyme to the BDBL championship in 2013.  So, thanks for that, I guess.

The warning signs began shortly thereafter, as Quinn gradually disappeared.  He earned his first penalty for failing to complete a starting rotation in Chapter Two, and the penalties merely piled up after that.

And so the search for yet another new owner begins.  The more time that passes, the more difficult that search becomes.  For now, we will live with Cuenca's robot manager, and hope that we can find a GM before the next big decision needs to be made.