May, 2014

Chapter Two Recap

Players of the Chapter

Yasiel Puig was selected by Matt Clemm with the third overall pick in the 2013 farm draft. Little was known about him at the time, aside from glowing scouting reports, and when he burst upon the MLB scene in June and finished that month with a triple-slash line of .436/.467/.713, many assumed that Puig would become the face of the Jamboree franchise for the next decade.

Those assumptions vanished, however, when Clemm traded his young superstar in exchange for established superstar Miguel Cabrera.  Although Cabrera hasn't carried the Jamboree to the top of the division, he did carry the team on his back throughout the second chapter, hitting .398/.476/.722, with 9 homers and 23 RBI's, which was enough to add another OL Hitter of the Chapter trophy to his already crowded trophy case.

Over in that other league, Bob Sylvester made a similar trade two years ago.  Just like Clemm, Sylvester took a first round gamble on a player with no US experience and glowing scouting reports.  When Yu Darvish made his US debut, and was every bit as good as advertised, most people assumed that he would become the face of the Southern Cal franchise for the next decade.  Instead, Sylvester traded him for established superstar Andrew McCutchen.  McCutchen not only led the Slyme to a BDBL championship last year, but he also took home the EL Hitter of the Chapter award by hitting .387/.435/.660, with 23 ribbies and 29 runs created in Chapter Two.

Let's stick with the Slyme, shall we?  Like Puig and Darvish, Felix Hernandez was once thought to be an untradeable franchise player when he burst onto the MLB scene at the tender age of 19.  Like those other two, Hernandez was a first-round selection by the Allentown Ridgebacks in 2004 -- the year before his surprising big league debut.  Although he was signed to an eight-year contract, he was traded to the Salem Cowtippers only one year into that deal.  Two years later, that "untradeable franchise player" was traded for a second time.  And that is how the Southern Cal Slyme ended up with the EL Pitcher of the Chapter.  King Felix went a perfect 6-0 in Chapter Two, with a sparkling 2.20 ERA.

Can we stand one more story about a formerly untouchable franchise player being traded?  Let's do it.  Back in 2010, Jim Doyle selected a pitcher attending community college by the name of Chris Sale.  The following winter, Doyle then traded Sale to the Mississippi Meatballs (along with Ricky Romero and Matt Dominguez) in exchange for Joey Votto, in a futile attempt to finish above .500.  It didn't work.  Not only did Doyle's team finish that season with a 74-86 record, but Sale went on to become a Cy Young contender.  He is also our OL Pitcher of the Chapter after posting a miniscule 1.73 ERA in Chapter Two and leading the league in all three triple-slash categories, holding opponents to a brain-melting .179/.242/.234 average.

Top Ten Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: The Resurgent Chicago Black Sox

What is it about the Chicago Black Sox and Chapter One?  Last year, the Sox were predicted to win the division in league polling, yet they got off to a horrendous start, and found themselves trailing by seven games in the division race at the end of two chapters.  They eventually rebounded, but it wasn't enough, and they finished the season in second place.

In 2012, Chicago sported a record of just 11-17 after the first chapter, and yet they finished that season in first place with more than 100 wins.

In 2010, GM John Gill had more than $52 million to spend in the auction, and he used it to stack his roster with superstar impact players.  And yet, after one chapter of play, the Black Sox sat with a record of 9-19.  They played .511 baseball the rest of the way, but it wasn't enough to win the division.

In 2006, the Black Sox were again picked to win the division, yet fell to a 9-19 record to start the season.  Just five weeks into that season, Gill dismantled his team by trading away several stars.

In 2004, Chicago began the season with a horrific record of 8-20 despite a roster that was filled with all-stars.  They then righted the ship, going 20-6 in the second chapter and finishing the season with 101 wins.

Do the cold winters in Chicago cause all the Black Sox players to become lethargic?  Does John Gill intentionally rope-a-dope the Eck League into believing his team isn't that good, so that they will take it easy on him the rest of the season?  Does the clubhouse catering service switch the coffee from decaf to regular at the end of Chapter One?  There must be a logical explanation for this.

After another miserable 13-15 start to the season this year, Chicago went 20-8 in the second chapter.  They went from three games behind in the division to four games ahead.  The third-place Rocks have already thrown in the towel, and John Gill is so confident in his chances of winning the division that he just traded away Jered Weaver in exchange for a player who won't help his team this year.  All is right in Chicago once more.

Story #2: New Milford's Ridiculous Home/Road Splits

Before the season began, New Milford's new ultra-ridiculous ballpark factors were a long-running topic of conversation.  I don't think anyone could have imagined just how drastically those factors would play a role in this season's outcome.

After two chapters of play, New Milford sports a 24-4 (.857) record at home, and a 10-18 (.357) record on the road.  Needless to say, that 500-point differential is something that you don't see too often in any sport, real or simulated.  But this is what happens when you construct a ballpark that drastically inflates left-handed performance, drastically deflates right-handed performance, and then you stack your roster with southpaws.

Now, Peburn's argument is that he simply hasn't played very good teams at home, while he has faced nothing but studs on the road.  There is some merit to that claim, as the Blazers faced the Giants (.321) and Boulevards (.375) at home, and the Outlaws (.571) and Meatballs (.589) on the road.  So let's remove those four teams from the record and look at only the teams that New Milford has faced an equal number of times, both home and away:

Home: 15-4 (.789)
Away: 8-12 (.400)

Sorry, Peburn, but that 389-point gap is still ridiculous.

Story #3: Kansas Calls it Quits

In my pre-season preview, I predicted the Law Dogs would win the Higuera Division.  In pre-season league polling, Kansas also received the most votes to win the division.  So why did GM Chris Luhning announce -- before the month of May -- that every player on his roster is up for grabs?

To date, only Kris Medlen and Brian Roberts have been traded, but if Luhning is to be believed, it is only the beginning of a massive sell-off.  The reason, evidently, is that after two chapters of play, the Law Dogs are sitting seven games out of the division (and six games out of the wild card) with a .500 record.

How could pre-season projections have been so far off the mark?  The first reason that comes to my mind is simply bad luck.  The Law Dogs have outscored their opponents by a wider margin than the second-place Ridgebacks, and according to the Pythagorean formula, they should own a record of 31-25 at this point.  That would put them four games behind the Sphinx, and a game ahead of Wyoming, which seems like a non-catastrophic position.

Given their overall .500 record, you would expect Kansas to own a similar record in one-run games.  Instead, they are 8-10 in those games.  If a few bloop hits had fallen in, or a few more ground balls had trickled into the outfield, the fate of the Law Dogs' season would likely be different.

Story #4: The Great Lakes Sphinx: For Realz?

Last chapter, I dismissed the Great Lakes Sphinx's record as a short-term, unsustainable fluke.  One chapter later, it looks like I may need to reevaluate that opinion.  56 games into this season, the Sphinx are still in first place, by a full game over the Allentown Wyoming Ridgebacks.

The Sphinx are near the middle of the pack, offensively, in nearly every category.  The main reason they are winning is their pitching.  They currently rank #2 in the EL in ERA and #1 in lowest OPS allowed.  But the strange truth of the matter is that their starting pitching has been only a little better than mediocre.  They are winning almost solely because of their bullpen.

Of Great Lakes' 35 wins this season, a member of their bullpen has recorded 17 of those wins -- nearly half!  Their best starting pitcher has been Tim Lincecum, whose ERA is more than two full runs lower than his MLB ERA last season.

In other words, I'm sticking by my original assessment: this wins rate is unsustainable.  GM Scott Romonosky made a big move this past week, adding Bartolo Colon to the rotation -- at the cost of three very good prospects -- but he is not going to be enough to carry this team through its inevitable regression.

Story #5: SoCal Running Away With It

As good as the SoCal Slyme looked heading into this season, many felt that it would be a tight division race, given the apparent strength of the Niagara Locks and St. Louis Apostles.  Yet, one-third of the way through the season, the Slyme are running away with it.  They are the only first place team in the BDBL with a lead of more than four games, and they are winning nearly 70% of their games this season.  With an 11-game lead over the Locks, the division race is all but over already.

The Slyme lead the BDBL in runs scored, with 276, and they also lead the league in fewest runs allowed, with 178.  Felix Hernandez (10-1, 2.48 ERA) is well on his way to winning the EL Cy Young if he keeps up this pace.  Jarrod Parker (5-1, 2.30) and Zack Greinke (4-3, 2.64) have been stellar, and the bullpen trio of Tom Gorzelanny, Jason Grilli and Jonathan Papelbon have allowed just 6 runs in more than 47 innings (a 1.14 ERA.)

Offensively, John Jaso (936) and Miguel Tejada (918) all own OPS's that are at least 200 points higher than their MLB averages.  Andrew McCutchen (910) is hitting almost exactly as expected, as are Brandon Belt (824) and Alex Gordon (738).

And then, there is this guy...

Story #6: Allen Craig = Ted Williams?

How can you even begin to explain this?

MLB, overall: .315/.373/.457
BDBL, overall: .406/.456/.571

MLB, vs. LH: .278/.311/.468
BDBL, vs. LH: .409/.423/.773

MLB, vs. RH: .327/.392/.453
BDBL, vs. RH: .405/.461/.541

Allen Craig -- ALLEN CRAIG -- is leading the BDBL in batting average by 40 points!  He leads the entire BDBL in OBP, and he leads the Slyme in runs created.

Allen Craig.

Story #7: Flagstaff Captures First

The first chapter ended with a three-day dogfight between Flagstaff, Bear Country and Los Altos.  In Chapter Two, we saw a little bit of separation:

Flagstaff: 18-10
Los Altos: 17-11
Bear Country: 12-16

Although the Jamboree stumbled a bit, they are not out of this race by a long shot.  The Outlaws helped themselves a great deal by taking three of four from the Jamboree at home.  The deciding game of that series was the 10-inning Game 3, when Bear Country asked Trevor Rosenthal to go a little longer than he could handle.  He loaded the bases in the bottom of the 10th, and then allowed a walk-off single to Jonathan Lucroy.

The Outlaws then shot themselves in the foot by losing three of four to -- who else? -- the Undertakers.  As Greg noted on the forum, this marked the THIRTY-SECOND straight series between those two teams in which the Outlaws either tied or lost.  That is simply unfathomable.

These three teams get to take a break from each other for the next two chapters.  Something tells me that when they meet again in August, they will still be neck-and-neck in the standings.