March, 2015

Chapter One Recap

Players of the Chapter

On November 27th, 2014, families gathered around their dinner tables across this great land and gave thanks for the blessings bestowed upon them. On that very same day, Jeff Paulson gathered around his trade table and gave thanks to Greg Newgard for blessing him with a golden ticket to another BDBL trophy. One of the juicy turkey legs that Newgard passed across the table to Paulson on that day was Jose Bautista, our OL Hitter of the Chapter. After one full chapter, Joey Bats is leading the OL in batting (.353), slugging (.724), RBI's (24), runs scored (29), home runs (12), and runs created (34.1), and is ranked #2 in on-base percentage (.436). Thaaaaaaaaanks, Greg!

What kind of sick, demented, masochist would trade the best hitter in the league to an already ridiculously-stacked opponent in his own division? I mean, besides Greg Newgard? How about Bobby Sylvester, who dealt another guy named Jose to the SoCal Slyme this past winter. Jose Abreu is our EL Hitter of the Chapter, as he leads the EL in runs created (27.1) and RBI's (29), and is hitting a robust .340/.417/.651 on the season so far. Thaaaaaaanks, Bobby!

On the pitching side, there are plenty of candidates for EL Pitcher of the Chapter, including Tanner Roark (6-0, 1.67 ERA), Mike Fiers (.156/.212/.294 against), Felix Hernandez (3-1, 1.94 ERA) and Ervin Santana (3-1, 1.32 ERA). But I'm going to go with Cleveland's own Cory Kluber, who went 4-1 on the chapter, with a 1.68 ERA and an opponents line of .184/.228/.259. Fun fact: Kluber was a CHAPTER SIX pick-up off of the free agent scrap heap, and was the second player chosen by Stein that chapter. Best Chapter Six signing ever?

Our OL Pitcher of the Chapter was an EIGHTH ROUND pick in the farm draft, and was once traded, straight-up, for the legendary Jaff Decker. Yes, I'm referring to none other than Flagstaff's Tyson Ross, who went a perfect 5-0 in Chapter One, with a 1.29 ERA, and an opponents line of .144/.219/.240.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Doyle Does It Again

Jim Doyle is a desperate man. Desperate men make ill-fated decisions. Such was the case when Doyle announced, only nine days into the season, that he had made the biggest trade he could possibly make this year. In that deal with the Kansas City Boulevards, Doyle's Giants traded their top two prospects, Braden Shipley and Luis Severino, along with youngsters Travis d'Arnaud and Junichi Tazawa. In exchange, New York received catcher Derek Norris and closer Craig Kimbrel.

The story of Jim Doyle's BDBL career is the stuff of legend. His fifteen years in the BDBL have resulted in fifteen seasons with a sub-.500 record, six last place finishes, zero appearances in the playoffs, and countless trades that have baffled and entertained the BDBL punditry time and again. With little competition in the Butler Division, and a team that appears, on paper, to be strong enough to contend for a division title, Doyle sees 2015 as his long-awaited golden opportunity to finally field a winning team.

Given that, it is completely understandable (commendable, even!) that Doyle would throw caution to the wind and make whatever sacrifices are necessary to go for broke this season. In that context, his big trade makes sense on some level. Sadly, there are a couple of problems with that.

First, there is the question of whether or not the Giants would have won their division without making this trade. As it stands, New York is sitting in second place with a 13-15 record, one game behind the Ravenswood Infidels. Doyle has identified the bullpen as his team's greatest weakness, and there is some merit to that. The Giants have already blown four games this season where they were leading in the seventh inning. As a comparison, there were three teams in the Ozzie League that had fewer than four blown wins after seven innings all of last season! With three blown saves and two losses under his belt, Tazawa seems to be the scapegoat.

The problem is that Tazawa is still a valuable reliever despite his early struggles in a handful of games. In fact, if you were to remove two bad outings from his record, his numbers would have been stellar last chapter: 11 IP, 10 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 0.81 ERA. That is a very good pitcher! A deeper look into the numbers reveals that Tazawa's worst outing of the season was the result of one ill-fated pitch, which resulted in a grand slam home run. Even the best pitchers have a rough day every now and then. These random flukes tend to even out over the course of a season.

Tazawa would be an adequate closer for most teams, including a playoffs-caliber team like the Giants. He would have been a stellar setup man as well. Instead, he was tacked onto Doyle's end of this bargain for seemingly no reason. Why trade your two top prospects for a closer and catcher...and throw in your current closer and catcher?

There is no doubt that Kimbrel will be an excellent closer for New York, and will likely be the best closer in the BDBL. But by dealing Tazawa, the Giants have merely upgraded their bullpen instead of adding to its depth.

The same can be said of the upgrade behind the plate, although Norris represents a much greater upgrade over d'Arnaud (at least for this season) than the upgrade in the bullpen. But how much of a difference will he make to a Giants offense that currently ranks tenth out of twelve teams in the OL in runs scored? The New York offense is the real issue with this team -- not the bullpen. They will need a lot more offensive firepower if they're going to compete against the best teams in the league come November.

Which leads me to my second point. The Giants are going to need to make a few more trades if they are going to seriously contend in the playoffs. Unfortunately, Doyle has just traded away his two greatest trading assets, and has virtually nothing left to trade. He dealt two top-25 prospects in exchange for a negligible upgrade at two positions. In all likelihood, this is as good as the Giants are going to get this season.

Their lone hope for the 2015 season is to squeeze into the playoffs with a near-.500 record, and then take their chances in the Tournament of Randomness. This would have been the case with or without making that trade. The difference is that had Doyle not made the trade, the franchise would have a reason for optimism in the future.

What a tragedy.

Story #2: Chicago Stumbles. Again.

What is it about the Chicago Black Sox that prevents them from getting off to a decent start? In what has become a recurring nightmare, the Sox are off to a horrific 12-16 start to the season, and finished the chapter in last place in the Hrbek Division. This, after they were picked to win the division, both on this page and in league polling.

John Gill explained on the forum that he normally rests his low-usage stars in Chapter One so that they will have full usage down the stretch. For example, spot starter Kyle Kendrick was given four starts last chapter, which will allow Madison Bumgarner, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez and Jeff Samardzija to take regular turns in the rotation every four days the rest of the season.

Kendrick (0-3, 6.39 ERA in 25+ IP) definitely did not excel in those four starts, and is one of the reasons for Chicago's slow start. He was far from the only contributing factor, though, as the Black Sox staff posted a league-worst 4.55 ERA in Chapter One.

As bad as Chicago's pitching has been, their hitting has also underperformed horribly. A prime example is David Ortiz. A $5 million free agent signing this winter, Ortiz was among the only decent hitters available on the market. So far, however, he has posted an anemic batting line of .133/.254/.296, with just ten RBI's. Tyler Flowers (.143/.186/.196) has been equally useless at the plate.

As the Black Sox have proven many times before, a bad start is not a death sentence in this league, and there is plenty of time for them to catch up to the rest of the pack. Speaking of which...

Story #3: Hrbek Logjam

With one chapter in the books, three teams are separated by just one game at the top of the Hrbek Division standings. Not only that, but all four teams in the division have scored runs at nearly identical rates, all within three runs of each other.

Strangely enough, the team I predicted to finish in last place is currently leading the division. The Cleveland Rocks have managed to win six more games than they have lost, despite outscoring their opponents by only a single run. In my preseason preview, I wrote that Cleveland's pitching staff is among the best in the league, but the team will have difficulty scoring enough runs to compete. So far, that prediction has been half true.

Cleveland owns an ordinary-looking 3.39 team ERA, but their CERA of 2.66 is second only to the SoCal Slyme. Offensively, they have scored only 102 runs -- ninth in the EL -- but that is nearly the same total as every other team in their division. The result is a lot of one-run games, and so far, the Rocks are killing it (8-2) in those games.

The story is similar in Akron and Charlotte. Both teams have failed to score many runs (104 and 102, respectively), but are winning games by holding their opponents in check. Among all EL teams, Akron ranks third in the fewest runs allowed (91), and Charlotte ranks second (83).

On the Ryche, Drew Smyly has been a real asset pitching out of the bullpen. He pitched more than 20 innings in Chapter One, and allowed just four earned runs (a 1.77 ERA). Ervin Santana (2.11 ERA in 38+ IP) has been brilliant in the Akron rotation, and even Justin Verlander (3-1, 2.51 ERA) has pitched well. The Akron bullpen has been a real team effort, with five different pitchers earning saves.

With the same 16-12 record as Akron, the Mustangs have been an early surprise so far this season. Like every other team in the division, they haven't scored many runs, but their pitching has been far better than expected. The biggest surprise has been Mike Fiers, who posted a 2.31 ERA in Chapter One, and held opponents to a .156/.212/.294 batting line. Unfortunately for Charlotte fans, their best pitcher is already pushing his usage limit. He has just 28 innings remaining this season.

In my preseason preview, I mentioned that the 'Stangs have more relief pitchers than any team could ever possibly employ. So far, those relievers have performed ridiculously well. Jeremy Affeldt, Jake Diekman, Seth Maness, Mike Minor and Zach Putnam have thrown 24 innings, combined, so far this season, and have allowed just ONE run. The first four pitchers mentioned have pitched fifteen scoreless innings so far this season. If there is another 2014 Great Lakes Sphinx-like surprise contender this season, it's Charlotte.

Story #4: Los Altos and SoCal: Total, Utter, Sickening Domination

It is no surprise to anyone that Los Altos and Southern Cal are the two best teams in the league so far. Still, the ease with which both teams are steamrolling over the competition is jarring. The Undertakers wrapped up Chapter One with a 20-8 record, with half of those losses coming from a fluke sweep by the New Milford Blazers in their final series of the chapter. The Slyme are off to a 21-7 start, and already own a double digit lead in their division. Both teams have already outscored their competition by more than 60 runs.

Los Altos has dominated the league with their offense. They have scored 159 runs on the season, which is 13 more than the next highest total, and 21 more than the next team on that list. In a year where run-scoring has become a rarity, the Undertakers are hitting .274/.351/.481 as a team, with 44 home runs (25% more than any other team) and a BDBL-leading 112 walks.

Of course, it's not as if their pitching isn't beyond ridiculous as well. Los Altos leads the Ozzie League with a 2.81 ERA (second only to SoCal in the BDBL). They have yielded a miniscule 608 OPS, which is nearly 100 points below the league average.

Those numbers pale in comparison, however, to the Slyme. So far this season, Slyme pitchers have allowed an opponents OPS of...get this...539. That's five thirty nine. On average! A stunning total of SIX pitchers on the SoCal roster have allowed an OPS below 500 so far, and three of them -- THREE! -- have allowed an OPS under 300!

Ubaldo Jimenez is the poster child for illustrating just how thoroughly everything in Southern California is coming up roses. Jimenez had a poor MLB season last year, in which he posted a 4.81 ERA in 125+ innings. But as a Slyme in 2015, pitching out of the bullpen, he has managed an ERA of just 1.35 in 13+ innings, and has even saved a pair of games!

With the Baseball Gods on your side, who needs talent?

Story #5: The Surprisingly Wild OL Wild Card Race

When I looked at all of the teams following the draft this winter, it appeared that the OL wild card would be won by the Granite State Lightning, and it seemed as though that race wouldn't even be close. One chapter into the season, the Lightning are sitting in last place with a 10-18 record, and two surprising teams are neck-and-neck atop the wild card standings.

Granite State was supposed to dominate the competition with a high-powered lineup and a Cy Young candidate at the front of their rotation. Instead, they have scored only 109 runs (ninth in the OL) and Johnny Cueto is a mediocre 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA. Several Lightning bats have been MIA so far this season. Jose Altuve is hitting just .288. Yan Gomes is hitting a paltry .259/.298/.370. The team's big winter acquisition (one of them, anyway), Justin Upton, is batting just .242/.282/379. And their everyday shortstop, Marwin Gonzalez, is contributing a .219/.260/.397 batting line so far.

On the mound, Vance Worley (5.14 ERA in 21 IP), A.J. Burnett (5.46 ERA in 29+ IP) and Tom Milone (5.54 ERA in 13 IP) have been awful at the back of the rotation. In the bullpen, Casey Janssen (7.20 ERA in 10 IP) and Zack McAllister (11.77 ERA in 13 IP) have taken suckiness to a whole new level.

The New Milford Blazers started with a bang, winning three of four against the Salem Cowtippers. They stumbled a bit after that, but then finished with a flourish by winning seven of their final eight, including a sweep of the unstoppable Los Altos Juggernauts. This was an unexpected development (for me, at least), as it seemed as though this would be the year the Blazers finally scurry into their rat hole and hibernate for the summer.

New Milford ranks near the middle of the pack both offensively and defensively, and they have been outscored by their opponents so far this season (by two runs.) Given that, how on earth are they managing to win more than 60% of their games? In a word: luck.

As Anthony Peburn would be quick to point out, the Blazers have played a ton of extra-inning games this season. Nine, to be exact. And they have managed to eke by with a win in seven of those nine games. It seems unlikely that New Milford can maintain that winning formula for much longer. Not only that, but all of those extra-inning games are wreaking havoc on the team's usage, as eleven hitters and eleven pitchers are already over 17% in total usage.

(Also, as a side note, it's interesting to note that New Milford's home record is just 7-5, and their balls-in-play average is below league average at .295. This, after leading the league (by far) in home record and BIP average for three years in a row. Strange, isn't it? I wonder what factor could have possibly played a role in this radical change in performance.)

The other surprising wild card team, and the current OL wild card leader, is the Flagstaff Outlaws. Incredibly, they are not only leading the wild card race, but they're managing to keep pace with the Undertakers, and trail them by only one game in the division. As expected, Flagstaff has pummeled their opponents with their offense. Their 146 runs scored is second only to Los Altos, and they are hitting .278/.343/.448 as a team.

Their lineup has scored so many runs, it has made their pitching deficiencies irrelevant. The pitching staff has posted a 4.00 ERA so far, which ranks sixth in the OL. However, their defense has only yielded four unearned runs all season, and their 113 runs allowed ranks fourth in the OL.

Will the Lightning bounce back or continue to struggle, and eventually be forced to wave the white flag? Will New Milford's fluky success continue, prompting Anthony Peburn to go "all-in" in an attempt to wrest the division away from Salem? Will Flagstaff continue to put pressure on the Undertakers and make life difficult for the Cowtippers in the playoffs (again)? I can't wait to find out.

Story #6: The Sphinx are Doing It Again

It appears that Scott Romonosky has discovered a hidden trick with this game that has eluded everyone else that plays Diamond Mind Baseball. Throughout the entire season last year, I insisted on this page that the Great Lakes Sphinx were a temporary fluke that would fade into the background at any point. It never happened. The Sphinx finished the season with 99 wins and an EL wild card. I still have no idea how they did it.

Well, don't look now, but whatever the Sphinx did last year, they're doing it again. As I type, Great Lakes owns a 17-11 record and is sitting on top of the Higuera Division. They're outscoring their opponents by more runs than any other team in the EL besides Southern Cal (of course.) They have scored more runs than any other EL team aside from SoCal, and their pitching staff owns a 3.08 ERA, and is limiting opponents to a 657 OPS.

Once again, it is Great Lakes' no-name bullpen that is practically carrying this team to another post-season. Hector Santiago, John Axford, Blaine Boyer, Yoervis Medina, James Russell and Jeurys Familia are so obscure, I just had to double-click on a few of their names to find out their first names! And yet, those six pitchers own a 1.66 ERA in 65 innings. Just to put that in context, Craig Kimbrel posted a 1.61 ERA in 61+ innings in MLB last season. Do any of those names I just mentioned remind anyone of Craig Kimbrel?

Then, there is the generic starting rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Scott Feldman, Ryan Vogelsong, Ben Norris and Tim Lincecum. Does that look like a division-leading starting rotation to you? Yet, Eovaldi, Feldman and Vogelsong are a combined 7-2 on the season, with an ERA of 2.85 in a little more than 107 innings. Julio Teheran posted a 2.89 ERA in MLB last season. Do any of those names I just mentioned remind anyone of Julio Teheran?

I just don't get it.

Story #7: Welcome, Rodney Wilkie

The league was pleased to welcome our newest member, Rodney Wilkie, this past chapter. Rodney inherits a team that is currently 14-14 on the season, which is within striking distance of first place. On paper, the Confederates don't look like a .500 team, and yet that's where they stand after 28 games.

No matter how the team performs over the next few chapters, Wilkie will be well-positioned to take this team in any direction he chooses. The free agent Class of 2016 promises to be among the best ever, and the Confederates will have a ton of money to spend. On the entire Corona roster, there isn't a single player with a 2016 salary over $5 million.

If Wilkie decides to trade for future value, there is plenty of trade bait on this roster, including Andrew Cashner, Matt Garza, Luke Gregerson, and Russell Martin. If he decides to make a run at a playoffs spot, there is plenty of cheap young talent to offer in trade, such as Willy Adames, Brady Aiken, and Kyle Funkhouser.

Looking toward next year, we could see a return to health by Homer Bailey and Derek Holland, which would give this team two near-aces for $8.5 million in salary, combined. Cody Asche and A.J. Pollock have some room to grow, and Garrett Richards will return as the ace of the staff, at only $2.1 million in salary.

The future is bright for the Confederates franchise.