July, 2015

Chapter Four Recap

Players of the Chapter

The Southern Cal Slyme cruised through a .750 chapter for the second time this season, thanks in large part to their two-headed ace Felix Wainwright. The first head of that unstoppable monster, Felix Hernandez, went 5-0 in Chapter Four, with a 1.33 ERA, and an opponents' batting line of .181/.208/.264. The second head, Adam Wainwright, also went 5-0, with a miniscule 0.52 ERA, and a triple-slash line of .182/.220/.207. Best of luck with that, Eck League playoff teams.

Over in the Ozzie League, we have our own monster to deal with, and his name is Chris Sale. Sale made a huge leap to the top of the OL Cy Young list last chapter by posting a 0.62 ERA, a perfect 5-0 record, and a league-leading 58 K's. He also led the league in all three triple-slash categories: .164/.215/.204. And just think, fellow Ozzie Leaguers, Sale still has three years remaining on his contract. What a gift by the Mississippi Meatballs!

Speaking of gifts, let's revisit that mid-winter trade between father and son. No, not the Yadier Molina deal of three years ago; I'm referring to the trade last winter between Bob and Bobby Sylvester, where the younger Sylvester got Aroldis Chapman and...well, not much else, in retrospect, and the elder Sylvester walked away with Jose Abreu. How has that worked out so far? Well, in addition to winning the Hitter of the Chapter award for Chapter Four (hitting .386/.432/.648 on the chapter), Abreu now leads the Eck League in numerous offensive categories, including slugging (.651), home runs (30), RBI's (97), OPS (1.057), and runs created (1.096). With a few more points in batting average, Abreu could win the EL Triple Crown.

On the OL side, Flagstaff's Adam Jones absolutely crushed the ball in Chapter Four, batting .480/.495/.714, with a league-leading 21 runs scored, 19 ribbies, and 35.4 runs created. An honorable mention goes to Salem's Buster Posey, who finally broke out of his season-long slumber and hit a whopping .448/.484/.736. Posey's teammate, Stephen Strasburg, also deserves an honorable mention for going a perfect 6-0 last chapter, with a 1.62 ERA, 54 K's, and a .175/.218/.306 triple-slash line. Typical for the Salem Cowtippers: always the bridesmaids; never the bride.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Benes Division Clusterfuck

With three teams in the Benes Division playing sub-.500 baseball once again in Chapter Four, the lone winning team, the Las Vegas Flamingos (14-10) managed to sneak into the playoff picture. We now have three teams at the top of the Benes Division separated by just one game in the standings, and led by the bumbling, stumbling New York Giants, who own a record of just 48-56 (.462).

Fans of league history probably remember the last time we had a sub-.500 division winner. By no coincidence whatsoever, that team was the Las Vegas Flamingos, who captured the title in 2009 with a 79-81 record. History seems to have a way of repeating itself.

The Giants were expected to run away with this division, yet they can't seem to score enough runs to do so. In my pre-season preview, I pointed out that New York's offense was their greatest weakness, and that has proven prophetic, as New York ranks third from last in runs scored in the OL. GM Jim Doyle has attempted to fortify his lineup by adding Neil Walker and Derek Norris, but that doesn't seem to have made much of a difference. Since the start of Chapter Three (when Norris was acquired), the Giants rank third from last in runs scored. This past chapter (after Walker was added), the Giants ranked eighth in runs scored, so I suppose that's progress.

The Ravenswood Infidels have been outscored by 68 runs this season, which is the largest margin by any of the three contenders in the division. They are at +3 in the Pythagorean column, thanks to a respectable .500 record (20-20) in one-run games. While the Giants and Flamingos have been loading up at the trade table in an effort to win it all this season, Ravenswood GM Brian Potrafka has taken the opposite approach, and has sold off a couple of valuable assets in Dellin Betances and Chase Headley in exchange for future value.

The newcomer to the race are the Vegas Flamingos, who have been outscored by "only" 44 runs this season -- the lowest margin of the three teams. Their problem this season has been on the pitching side. They have allowed more runs than only two other teams in the Ozzie League, and their 4.42 team ERA ranks second to last. They are the only team in the OL to have allowed more than 1,000 hits so far this season, and their bullpen leads the league in blown saves, with nineteen.

GM John Bochicchio gave his best effort to correct these issues last chapter by adding Rafael Soriano and Jean Machi to the bullpen. He also upgraded his lineup with the additions of Ryan Braun and Jhonny Peralta. It remains to be seen, however, whether these moves really will be upgrades over what the Flamingos already have. Presumably, Peralta will take over for Asdrubal Cabrera (.262/.3335/.515), who was a member of the OL all-star team last month. Cabrera could move to second base, but that would push another all-star (starting all-star second baseman Chase Utley) to the bench. It's also worth mentioning that Peralta (.203/.280/.308) has hardly hit hit weight in the BDBL this season.

As for Braun, it would seem an easy task to be an upgrade in right field over Curtis Granderson (.206/.308/.427); however, Braun is hitting just .225/.284/.365 this season. According to their BDBL performances to date, both Braun and Peralta are actually downgrades at both positions! Hopefully, Johnny Bo can hire a hitting coach for the first time in franchise history and turn both players around.

Story #2: The Eck League Wild Card Race

The race to determine who gets the privilege of losing to the Slyme in the ELDS has been intriguing to say the least. Currently residing at the top of that pack are the Charlotte Mustangs, who ended the last chapter by trading three players with current value for two players with future value. Only one team in the EL has scored fewer runs than the Mustangs, and yet they sit three games ahead in the wild card standings thanks to a pitching staff that has posted an incredible 2.83 ERA.

Unfortunately for Mustangs fans, the success of their pitching staff appears to be nothing more than smoke and mirrors, given that their two best starting pitchers (Kyle Hendricks and Mike Fiers) have already reached their usage limits this season. GM Tony Chamra is attempting to piece together a starting rotation from spare parts, and has done so with amazing success. Cory Rasmus, for example, has made four starts, and owns a 2.45 ERA, yet is available for only roughly four more starts. Brandon Maurer owns a 2.77 ERA for the 'Stangs, but is limited to roughly six more starts.

Can Chamra continue to assemble this Frankenstein pitching staff for two more chapters? It doesn't seem likely -- which explains why he made the trade he made.

The Wyoming Ridgebacks continue to hang in the race despite their season-long underperformance. They are at -5 on the Pythagorean scale thanks mostly to a woeful 14-22 record in one-run games. They're leading the Eck League in runs scored (491) and home runs (127), but their pitching staff ranks just seventh in ERA (3.79), and their defense has allowed 35 unearned runs (third highest in the EL.)

GM Tom "The Emperor" DiStefano was oddly quiet at the final trading deadline, and made just one trade involving inning-eaters James Russell and Bud Norris. The third team in close contention for that wild card, the Niagara Locks, were not so quiet. In fact, Niagara GM Mike Ranney made perhaps the biggest move of anyone in the league by adding Lucas Duda to his lineup. The question that I can't help but ask, though, is: where will Duda play?

Just in case you haven't been following the Niagara Locks this season, Ranney has been conducting an interesting experiment this year on using players out of position. Adrian Beltre, a Vg-rated third baseman, has been the team's primary first baseman, and has posted a .996 fielding percentage out of position. Juan Uribe, an Ex-fielding third baseman, has been hitting the cover off the ball all year (.331/.371/.448), but is at 90% usage against right-handers. My assumption, then, is that Beltre moves to his natural position of third, and Duda becomes the new first baseman. That assumption means that Duda will have to hit better than .331/.371/.448 to make this an upgrade -- and that's a tall order.

With the addition of Duda this chapter, and Johnny Cueto and Garrett Richards last chapter, no GM has done more to improve his team this year than Ranney. It will be fun to see how the EL wild card race shakes out from this point on.

Story #3: Salem Slides

The Salem Cowtippers won five of the six series they played in Chapter Four, and went 17-7 on the chapter...and yet lost a game in the division race. Salem's disastrous 12-16 record in Chapter Two set them back so far, it will be difficult to make up that lost ground over the last two chapters.

Waiting for the first place New Milford Blazers to finally slip a bit has proven to be a waste of time. New Milford's winning percentages for the first four chapters has been .607, .607, .625, and .750. They're actually getting better as the season progresses, despite all indications that their early success was heavily attributable to an unsustainable record in extra-inning games.

New Milford's greatest concern over the second half was impending usage issues, but those issues have been obliterated with the acquisitions of Steven Pearce and Jayson Werth. Both of those newcomers made an immediate impact with their new team, as Werth contributed four home runs and 16 RBI's in 24 games, and Pearce hit an astounding .377/.400/.792 with 13 doubles in 23 games.

With the Los Altos Undertakers refusing to cede an inch of ground in the race for the best record in the OL, it appears to be a lock that the longtime division rivals New Milford and Salem will once again face off in the OL Division Series. Which team wins this division hardly matters.

Story #4: Bob's Beefy Bullpen

I suppose most of us would be content to own the best record in the Eck League, a fifteen game lead in our division, and a runs differential that is second to only the Undertakers. Bob Sylvester, however, isn't like most of us.

With a bullpen that already includes three relievers with ERA's below 2.00, plus newly-added Fernando Abad, who has yet to allow a run as a member of the Slyme, it sure doesn't seem as though the Southern Cal bullpen needs any added help. Yet, at the trading deadline, Sylvester sacrificed several promising prospects in order to add yet another dominant, shutdown arm to his bloated bullpen: Dellin Betances.

In 68+ innings with Ravenswood this year, Betances posted a 1.70 ERA. He allowed just 33 hits (an average of 4.3 per nine) and struck out 99 batters (13.0 per nine.) He will presumably share closer duties with yet another recently-added dominant, shutdown closer, Greg Holland. In his short, 15-inning, stint with the Slyme so far, Holland has allowed just four hits and one run (a 0.61 ERA.)

As I noted on the forum, the strategy of loading up with dominant bullpen arms for the playoffs has backfired more often than not:

• In 2014, the Meatballs took on a boatload of unwanted salary in order to acquire Craig Kimbrel. Later, they added a second closer in Aroldis Chapman, before flipping Chapman for another dominant reliever, Neal Cotts. Facing the New Milford Blazers in the OLDS last year, Kimbrel allowed four runs (three earned) in just 3 2/3 innings, while Cotts yielded three runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Combined, they wrapped up the Division Series with an ERA of 7.71. (And yet, incredibly, the Meatballs still won the series!)
• In 2010, the Cowtippers added Joe Nathan in a mid-summer trade, in an effort to further fortify an already strong bullpen. Nathan was especially valuable that year because of his reverse-split stats. In Game One of the World Series, Nathan was tasked with facing the switch-hitting Jorge Posada, in a ballpark that severely punished left-handed power hitters. It was the ultimate match-up. Posada's two run home run won the game in extra innings, and propelled the Ridgebacks to yet another World Series victory.
• In 2008, Francisco Cordero dominated for the Cowtippers throughout the regular season, racking up 22 saves and posting a 1.58 ERA in 68+ innings. With the 2008 World Series tied at two wins apiece, Cordero was handed the ball in the eighth inning, charged with protecting a slim one run lead. The second batter he faced was Ken Griffey, Jr.. Junior launched a two-run bomb, giving the Ridgebacks the series lead, en route to yet another BDBL championship.
• Mariano Rivera was in the prime of his Hall of Fame career in 2005. During that BDBL season, he allowed just 67 hits in 84 innings, with just 22 walks, 64 K's, and a 2.14 ERA. Mr. Sandman was put to the test in the tenth inning of Game Two in that series. With a win, Salem would have taken a 2-0 lead in the series. Instead, Rivera coughed up a two-out RBI double to .241 hitter Brian Roberts -- his fifth hit of the game. The Ridgebacks -- you guessed it -- went on to win yet another BDBL championship.
• Perhaps the most famous closer meltdown in the BDBL playoffs took place in our first season of 1999. Los Altos closer Trevor Hoffman had finished that season with a remarkable 51 saves and a 1.37 ERA in 79 innings. Facing a Litchfield Lightning team that had been decimated by suspensions, the Undertakers found themselves unexpectedly clinging  to a slim 1-0 lead heading into the eighth inning. After two quick outs, the heart of the Litchfield lineup (or what was left of it) came to bat. Paulson, looking to stamp out any potential rally before it happened, summoned his lights-out closer. A double and a two-run blast by Edgar Martinez gave Litchfield the lead, and eventually the win.
• Four games later, Hoffman again found himself in an unexpected position. The Lightning had managed to somehow take the series to the full five games, and Hoffman was handed the ball to protect a 4-3 lead. Instead, the first batter he faced (J.T. Snow) ripped a base hit up the middle to tie the game and send it into extra innings. Hoffman stayed in the game, and after tossing a scoreless ninth, he watched the winning run of the series scamper across home plate on a two-out wild pitch.