September, 2015

Chapter Five Recap

Players of the Chapter

Two winters ago, I selected a little-known utility infielder/outfielder in the 23rd round of the draft. At the time, he had accumulated roughly a full season's worth of PA's (575) in the major leagues, and owned a career batting line of .250/.282/.367. Why did I waste a $500K pick on such a mediocre player? Because I needed a backup third baseman, and this kid posted a .981 OPS against lefties (in only 42 PA's.) A few months after making that pick, I nearly traded this kid as a throw-in. Lucky for me, that offer was rejected. Even luckier, that kid -- Josh Harrison -- somehow developed into an MVP candidate for one (and apparently only one) season. By leading the OL in batting (.430) and on-base percentage (.462), and ranking second in slugging (.640) in Chapter Five, Harrison has earned the OL Hitter of the Chapter award.

The Wyoming Ridgebacks had a disastrous chapter (more on that later), but the one player they can't blame for that is Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton, who was picked up by Tom DiStefano way back in 2009 as part of a ten-player deal with the Blazers (in which the best player sacrificed by Tom was Yovani Gallardo), hit .308/.377/.654 last chapter, and led the EL in home runs (11) and RBI's (24). He is your EL Hitter of the Chapter.

On the pitching side, it's tough to have a better chapter than Los Altos' Kyle Gibson. Gibson posted a perfect 5-0 record, led the league with a miniscule 0.37 ERA, and held opposing hitters to a .134/.184/.140 batting line. Where did this get this kid from? Believe it or not, Paulson got him from the Black Sox two years ago, in a deal in which he "sacrificed" a relief pitcher, Rafael Soriano, and someone named Adam Morgan. Chicago managed to get one decent season out of Soriano, in which he posted a 3.44 ERA and led the team in saves, with 33. He then became a free agent. Morgan was released at some point and hasn't been heard from since.

Wallowing in last place in the Higuera division, the Big River Beavers haven't had many reasons to celebrate this season. Last chapter, however, they managed to post the second-best record in the division. Granted, they merely went 12-16, but it's still a noteworthy accomplishment. A big reason for their success was their starting pitching; notably two award-worthy performances from James Shields (1.81 ERA, .151/.185/.224 against) and Jarred Cosart (1.59 ERA, .137/.233/.179). Shields led the Eck League in lowest opponents' OBP, and ranked #4 in ERA, and #2 in opponents' batting average and slugging. Cosart ranked #3 in ERA, #4 in opponents' OBP, and led the league in opponents' batting average and slugging. Nice Beavers!

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Vegas, Baby

This was supposed to be the Year of Jim Doyle. After fifteen consecutive losing seasons, including seven last place finishes and eleven seasons of 90-plus losses, the New York Giants were supposed to run away with this division. It's not that they appeared to be so dominant on paper, but that they appeared to be the best of an extremely weak division.

For a while, it seemed that the Ravenswood Infidels would pose the greatest threat to the Giants' pennant hopes. This past chapter, however, Ravenswood finished with a mind-numbing 8-20 record and fell nine games behind the division leader. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Flamingos have emerged from the pack, and now own the top seat in the division by one game.

Over the past two chapters, the Flamingos are playing nearly .600 baseball (.596). They have won six more games than New York during that time span, and have outscored their opponents by 47 runs -- a differential greater than any team in the Hrbek division.

What has been the catalyst for all this success? The offense. Over the past two chapters, the Flamingos rank #3 in the Ozzie League -- ahead of even the Salem Cowtippers -- in runs scored. Adam Eaton (.359/.435/.553 over the past two chapters) is making a late-season case for OL MVP. Newcomers Jhonny Peralta (.336/.390/.584) and Ryan Braun (.262/.342/.551) have made a tremendous impact. And Michael Cuddyer hit an incredible .349/.376/.616 during that span.

Meanwhile, the New York Giants offense has continued to plod along near the bottom of the league in nearly every category. During that same two chapter timeframe, the Giants hit just .259/.321/.367 as a team, and ranked eighth in the OL in runs scored.

Oddly enough, the Giants top the Flamingos in several categories overall this season. They have a better record within their division. They have a much better record in interleague play. They've blown far fewer leads, won more extra inning games, and have a much better record in one run games. The greatest difference, it appears, is that the Flamingos can hit the ball, and the Giants can't.

The Giants and Flamingos are 6-6 against each other this season. The fate of this division may very well rest on that final head-to-head series between these two teams.

Story #2: Playoff Picture Gets Clearer

Whoever owns the best record in the Ozzie League will have the benefit of facing whichever sub-.500 team wins the Benes Division. For a brief moment, it appeared that some team other than the Undertakers would have a chance to grab that number one seed. That possibility evaporated completely this past chapter, as Los Altos went 21-7, and now own a ten game lead over the next best team in the OL.

It is now a virtual certainty that the Undertakers will face whoever wins the Benes Division, and the Cowtippers and Blazers will face each other once more in November. Salem managed to catch New Milford in the division race for a very brief moment this past chapter, before tumbling hard over their final three series, and falling right back to where they were at the beginning of the chapter -- five games behind the Blazers.

New Milford has been hitting the cover off the ball since the all-star break. Since the break, they lead the Ozzie in runs scored -- 23 more than the mighty Undertakers -- and are hitting .285/.355/.497 as a team. In fact, New Milford leads the entire BDBL in runs scored during that time.

Of course, a major reason for that boost in offensive performance is the addition of Steven Pearce to the lineup, thanks to the generosity of D.J. Shepard. Since Shepard graciously handed New Milford that gift, Pearce has been on a tear of vintage Barry Bonds-like proportions. He is hitting .371/.434/.762 as a Blazer, with 7 homers, 20 doubles, and 30 RBI's. Thaaaaaanks, D.J.!

Over in the Eck League, the race for the number one seed is still undecided. The SoCal Slyme current own that position, but sit just five games ahead of the Cleveland Rocks. With the Wyoming Ridgebacks suffering through an 11-17 chapter and falling below .500 overall, the Kansas Law Dogs are now virtually guaranteed to be the third playoff team in the EL.

That leaves the wild card as the only remaining race in the EL. Incredibly -- inexplicably -- the Charlotte Mustangs managed to cling to that top spot for another chapter. The Chicago Black Sox, however, are gaining quickly. Chicago went 18-10 this past chapter, compared to Charlotte's 16-10 showing. Since the all-star break, Chicago is playing three games better than Charlotte. With a four game deficit as I type, this race could come down to the wire.

Story #3: Records in Jeopardy

Pitching has dominated the league this season in such a way that several historical records could fall by the wayside by the time this season ends. Not one, but TWO, teams are currently posting an ERA that is well below the all-time record of 3.00. The SoCal Slyme sit with an ERA of 2.79, and the Undertakers are just ridiculous with their 2.62 ERA. I mean...for a single pitcher to post a 2.62 ERA is a major, noteworthy, achievement. For an entire TEAM to do it? Ridiculous.

Max Scherzer's all-time single-season ERA record of 1.79 -- which he achieved just last year -- also appears to be short-lived. Both Chris Sale (1.67) and Carlos Carrasco (1.76) are currently ahead of Scherzer, and yet another Undertaker, Kyle Gibson (2.10), isn't far behind.

Story #4: Niagara's Surprising Collapse

Two chapters ago, Niagara GM Mike Ranney made a pair of blockbuster trades, adding two Cy Young-caliber starting pitchers in Johnny Cueto and Garrett Richards. Last chapter, he made another blockbuster deal, adding slugger Lucas Duda. How has that worked out for him?

Well, before those trades, the Locks were a .525 team, and trailed in the wild card race by only three games. Since those deals, Niagara has posted a 22-30 record (.423), and now sit nine games back in the wild card race.

What happened??

Well, since those trades were made, the Locks simply stopped hitting. Their 176 runs scored over the last two chapters ranks dead-last in the Eck League. They are hitting just .236/.292/.376 as a team. Adrian Beltre (.335), Carlos Gomez (.329), Juan Uribe (.301), Victor Martinez (.274), and Melky Cabrera (.268) are the only hitters in the lineup with a batting average above .226 since the all-star break.

To be fair, none of the other hitters in the Niagara lineup were supposed to be decent hitters. The one exception is Duda, who managed to hit just .221/.316/.512 last chapter in his Locks debut.

If your team can't score runs, it's difficult to win, no matter who you have on the mound. How, then, do we explain the success of the Charlotte Mustangs? Charlotte has scored even fewer runs this season than the Locks, and rank 11th out of 12 teams in the Eck League in that category. They're hitting just .249/.301/.390 as a team, and they're 25-for-45 in stolen base attempts.

The difference, it seems, is that Charlotte has allowed 50 fewer runs than Niagara this season. With a pitching staff that doesn't include Cueto, Richards, David Price, or Chris Tillman. And with a starting rotation comprised of Cole Hamels, Julio Teheran, and...well...I'm not sure, exactly.

What a whacky season.

Story #5: Most Dominant Team Ever?

I brought this up on the league forum, but it bears repeating: the 2015 Los Altos Undertakers may very well be the most dominant team in BDBL history. The most indicative measurement of dominance, in my opinion, is runs differential. The 2002 Allentown Ridgebacks hold the record in that category with 433. With a runs differential of "only" 299 with one chapter remaining, it seems unlikely that Los Altos will surpass that record.

However, we have to remember that 2015 is a MUCH different offensive era than 2002. We've seen a 20 percent decrease in runs scored since then. So, if we adjust both runs scored and allowed by 20 percent, that would give Los Altos a differential of 359 -- well within the range of Allentown's record.

Regardless of whether or not they achieve this feat, the Undertakers will be among the greatest teams in league history. They lead the entire BDBL in runs scored and fewest runs allowed -- a feat that has only been reached twice before in league history. One of those two times was by Los Altos in 2009, and resulted in a BDBL championship trophy. I believe we're watching history repeat itself.