May, 2016

Chapter Two Recap

Players of the Chapter

New Milford's $11 million investment looked like a bust last year, but for inexplicable reasons it appears that Shin-Soo Choo is making up for a lost year in 2016. Choo had a decent MLB season last year, hitting .276/.375/.463, but with lopsided splits that continued to force him into a platoon role. To this point in the season, Choo has only racked up 39% of his overall usage, and yet he's already hit 77% of his MLB home run total (17 vs. 22).

Overall, he's hitting SIXTY-EIGHT points higher in the BDBL than he did in MLB last year. His OBP is 37 points higher, and his slugging percentage is a whopping 185 points higher. In Chapter Two, he hit .368/.430/.675, and led the league in RBI's despite playing as a platoon player. On the season, Shin-Soo Choo -- SHIN-SOO-F'ING-CHOO! -- leads the Ozzie League in both slugging (.648) and RBI's (57). Those are Bryce Harper-like numbers.

How the hell is Shin-Soo Choo outperforming his MLB performance SO drastically? Maybe it's ballpark factors. Arlington's factors for lefties are 108-94-98-98. New Milford's factors are 104-107-161-98. Hmm...nope, that's not it. Maybe it's the classic "balls-in-play" average that I've pointed out on this page before. Choo's MLB BIP average was .333 in MLB last season. In the BDBL, it's a whopping .407! New Milford's team BIP average in MLB was just .307, but in the BDBL it's .340. Only the Kansas Law Dogs (.345) have a higher BIP average.

If New Milford finishes this season at the top of the BIP leaderboard, it will be the SIXTH YEAR IN A ROW they have accomplished that feat. What does Anthony Peburn know about this game that the rest of us don't? Which bug has he discovered and exploited to his advantage for six years in a row that no one in the Diamond Mind Baseball community has discovered? How is he deliberately tweaking this game so that more bloopers land in the grass and more bleeders pass through the infield than any other team in the league for six years in a row?

If we're lucky, Peburn will let us know while on his way out the door.

What an Unholy Alliance it was between Tom DiStefano and Gene Patterson. In the winter of the 2011 season, DiStefano loaded Patterson's roster with three impact bats that would carry Patterson to his first BDBL World Series championship. One of those bats, Jayson Werth, would become not only the ELDS MVP, but the World Series MVP as well. Another one of those bats, Justin Morneau, was the ELCS MVP. In exchange, DiStefano received a young prospect by the name of Mike Trout.

Three years later, Patterson found himself managing DiStefano's team, including the player who had by then become the greatest player in baseball. He rode Mike Trout all the way into the BDBL World Series and collected his second trophy before both he and DiStefano rode off into the sunset.

Now with Tony Badger at the helm of the franchise, Trout enjoyed his finest chapter of the season (so far) in Chapter Two, batting .357/.416/.777 with a league-leading 12 home runs, 37 RBI's, and 36.4 runs created. He is our Chapter Two Hitter of the Chapter.

How does Jeff Paulson end up with so many great young prospects when he owns one of the lowest picks in every farm draft? Well, more often than not, it's through trade. Way back the winter of 2011, for example, Paulson traded his closer, Joaquim Soria, to the Kansas Law Dogs in exchange for a reliever (Ernesto Frieri) and a prospect. Soria enjoyed a fantastic season for his new team, saving 40 games and posting a miniscule 1.32 ERA in over 61 innings.

Kansas won 105 games that year, and were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. Los Altos won 106 games and went on to face (and lose to) the Atlanta Fire Ants in the BDBL World Series. Presumably, they fared just fine without their closer. Meanwhile, that prospect acquired in that trade was Gerrit Cole, who is our OL Pitcher of the Chapter.

On the EL side, I'm giving the award to Cleveland's Zack Greinke, who led the EL in ERA (1.05) and lowest opponents batting average (.178), on-base (.204), and slugging (.230.) And for a whopping $18 million, he should be this good every chapter.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Break Up the Cowtippers

No one is more surprised than I am to see the Salem Cowtippers at the top of the OL wild card race. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the 'Tippers, and yet here we are. We rank at the very middle of the pack in runs scored, and near the bottom in runs allowed, and yet we're sporting a 31-25 (.554) record as I type, and cling to a one game lead over the Bear Country Jamboree in that wild card race.

How did this happen? Well, mainly it seems to be a function of the fact that there just aren't very many good teams in the Ozzie League this year. The Jamboree have been outscored by nearly 40 runs this season, and are outperforming their Pythagorean record by six games. The Flagstaff Outlaws were supposed to be the main contenders for the wild card, yet they're underperforming their Pythagorean record by five games, and are eight games below .500. The Granite State Lightning were also supposed to contend this year, yet they're sitting at just 21-35 -- the worst record in the Ozzie League.

How long can this continue? Well, that may depend on how this chapter's "The Trade" plays out. Speaking of which...

Story #2: The Trade

Everyone except me, it seems, knew that I would eventually trade Kris Bryant. What can I say? This is why I can't have nice things.

The long-term ramifications of this trade are subject to opinion. Bryant and Miguel Sano are both outstanding young power hitters. While Bryant is the better all-around ballplayer, it often pays to opt for quantity over quality when it comes to prospects. With the addition of Andrew Benintendi, the Cowtippers received both quantity and quality. In fact, Benintendi may turn out to be the best player involved in this deal.

From a short-term aspect, neither Bryant nor Sano has been stellar at the plate this season. We can call that a wash. The Cowtippers lose a closer who has been solid all season (so far.) He's replaced with Tommy Hunter, who has been thoroughly mediocre (1-0, 4.50 ERA) so far this season. But Salem gains a big bat in Alex Rodriguez (.236/.329/.486 for Chicago), who now fills in for the usage-drained Ryan Zimmerman and Travis Shaw. Geovanny Soto also supplies Salem with some much-needed usage behind the plate.

From Chicago's standpoint, Sano was hardly being used in the lineup, which means Bryant is a massive upgrade. Where he will play, however, remains to be seen. Evan Longoria (.305/.331/.484) is having a surprisingly good year at third base. Justin Bour's performance (.236/.347/.491) at first base has been solid (although he can use a platoon mate against left-handers.) And the corner outfield duo of Carlos Beltran (.333/.372/.518) and Bryce Harper (.278/.390/.588) has been as good as it gets. One possibility is having Bryant play center field, which is currently manned by Angel Pagan (.209/.249/.262). He is rated "Pr" at that position, but it's not much of a downgrade from Pagan, who is rated "Fr."

At 29-27, the Black Sox trail the Cleveland Rocks by eight games in the Hrbek Division. Their deficit in the wild card race is even greater, at nine games. With another big bat in the lineup and a closer in the bullpen, they are now in better position to make up that ground over the next four chapters.

Story #3: Another 20-Win Chapter for Los Altos

The winningest team in Chapter Two was the same winningest team from Chapter One: the Los Altos Undertakers. Ho-hum.

Los Altos went a ludicrous 23-5 in Chapter Two. They also led the league by outscoring their opponents by 73 runs. On the season, the Undertakers have outscored their opponents by a whopping 127 runs. The New Milford Blazers trail closely in that category with a differential of +123. No other team in the Ozzie League has outscored its opponents by more than 14 runs.

56 games into the season, the Undertakers lead their division by fourteen games. Are we having fun yet?

Story #4: All Tied Up in the Higuera

The Kansas Law Dogs went 20-8 in Chapter Two. You would think that would put them in sole possession of first place, given the lofty expectations for this team heading into this season. Instead, they are merely sharing first place, as the Great Lakes Sphinx continued to outperform expectations for the second chapter in a row, going 18-10.

How on earth are the Sphinx keeping pace? For starters, they're scoring runs by the bushel. They have scored 293 runs this season, which is second only to the Law Dogs (300) in the Eck League. Off-season acquisition Josh Donaldson (.346/.402/.614) is enjoying an MVP-caliber season. Manny Machado (.329/.390/.526), Starling Marte (.331/.370/.551), and Josh Reddick (.289/.352/.479) are also having stellar seasons.

On the mound, the Sphinx are doing just enough to stay competitive. They own a team ERA of 3.91, which ranks fifth in the Eck League. Clay Buchholz (4-0, 1.56 ERA in 57+ IP) has been inexplicably dominant. Nathan Eovaldi (7-2, 2.55) has been all-star-worthy as well. And the bullpen, led by Kelvin Herrera (2-1, 1.11 ERA, 7 SV's in 24+ IP) has been brilliant.

Great Lakes added two more quality arms to the bullpen in trade this past chapter, which should help them maintain this pace through the next four chapters. Kansas, meanwhile, leads the Eck League in runs differential, and yet finds themselves sharing the top spot. Baseball is a funny game sometimes.

Story #5: All Tied Up in the Person

Yes, after two chapters of play we have two ties for a division lead. The other belongs to the Person Division, where the Niagara Locks and St. Louis Apostles are deadlocked at 30-26. Both teams treaded water in Chapter Two, with St. Louis going 14-14, while Niagara went 13-15. On the season, the Locks have outscored their opponents by 27 runs, while St. Louis owns a differential of just +3.

The problem in St. Louis has been their pitching. The Apostles own a 4.23 team ERA, which ranks ninth in the EL, and have allowed 251 runs, which also ranks ninth. The addition of Noah Syndergaard last chapter was supposed to have strengthened the starting rotation, but instead, he's been merely mediocre (3-2, 4.04 ERA in 35+ IP) so far. The same goes for Carlos Martinez (6-6, 4.31 in 71) and Michael Wacha (5-3, 4.50 in 78).

Niagara's pitching has been somewhat disappointing as well, as preseason expectations for this staff were high. Garrett Richards (4-2, 2.90 ERA in 68+ IP) has been the team's ace so far, while David Price (4-5, 3.73 in 89+) and Johnny Cueto (7-4, 4.58 in 96+) have been merely mediocre, and Chris Tillman (4-6, 6.37 in 77+) has been downright disastrous.

Offensively, the Locks have been as good as advertised. Xander Bogaerts (.332/.365/.469) would be a leading contender for Rookie of the Year if this league ever had such an award. Brandon Crawford (.325/.401/.708) has already whacked 22 homers this season -- which is one more than he hit all of last MLB season in 507 at-bats! Logan Morrison (.256/.335/.494) and Lucas Duda (.246/.365/.539) have also contributed greatly to the team's 78 home runs, which ranks second in the EL.

It's an unexpected twist for me to see the Locks sharing the top spot in this division given what I wrote about this team in the pre-season. In the Season Preview, I called the Locks "the fantasy baseball version of Edward Scissorhands" because the lineup appeared to be unfinished and missing several parts. I wrote that this team had no bullpen, and yet Chad Qualls (1.19 ERA in 22+ IP), Juan Nicasio (1.80 in 10), Al Alburquerque (1.84 in 14+), Robbie Ross (2.45 in 11), and Chris Bassitt (2.76 in 29+) have been outstanding out of the bullpen.

I wrote that the Locks had no catcher -- which turned out to be true. Rene Rivera (.198/.222/.314) has been the team's main catcher, and he's been among the worst hitters in the league. That doesn't seem to have had much of an impact, however. I wrote that the team had no right fielder. Yet Juan Lagares has inexplicably performed at an all-star level. He hit just .259/.289/.358 in MLB, yet is hitting .315/.349/.442 in the BDBL. In MLB, he hit just .253/.271/.328 against right-handers, and is hitting .348/.374/.504 in the BDBL. It's as if he's using someone else's player card.

I also wrote that the team had two shortstops who had to be in the lineup. Mike Ranney solved that problem by playing Bogaerts out of position at second base. He's responded by posting a .993 fielding percentage, which would lead all EL second basemen if he qualified.

Just think how boring this game would be if every player performed exactly as we expected.