March, 2018
2018 BDBL
Farm Report
Welcome to the 19th edition of the BDBL
Farm Report. In case you've missed the last eighteen editions, let me
explain how this works. We use a "panel of experts" to contribute their
top-100 prospect lists. I then assign 100 points to the #1 prospect on
each list, 99 points to the #2 prospect, etc., all the way down to one
point for the #100 prospect. I then tally them all up to create the
chart you see below.
This year, our panel includes MLB.com,
Baseball America, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and, for the first
time ever, our own Bobby Sylvester's FantasyPros. As always, the problem
with merging all of these lists together is that they all use a
different set of criteria to determine who is eligible for their lists.
MLB.com, Baseball America, and Fangraphs all use the same (incredibly
reasonable) criteria, which considers only American professionals, plus
any foreign prospects that will be playing American professional
baseball in 2018. Baseball Prospectus excludes that latter group.
FantasyPros includes both groups, plus international
professionals and amateurs.
|
|
Total Pts |
2018 |
2017 |
2016 |
2015 |
2014 |
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
2000 |
Avg Rank |
|
AKR |
2,485 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
16 |
11 |
14 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
12 |
8 |
23 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
15 |
13 |
2 |
9 |
10.7 |
|
STL |
2,354 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
10 |
1 |
24 |
8 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
19 |
10 |
23 |
17 |
12 |
19 |
9.4 |
|
CLE |
2,259 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
19 |
19 |
16 |
10 |
21 |
20 |
13 |
19 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
20 |
17.6 |
|
LAU |
2,038 |
4 |
23 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
19 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
19 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
6.2 |
|
NIA |
1,995 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
11 |
23 |
24 |
6 |
9 |
23 |
11.5 |
|
MBH |
1,890 |
6 |
9 |
24 |
24 |
7 |
18 |
12 |
21 |
21 |
7 |
13 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
12.6 |
|
RAV |
1,708 |
7 |
17 |
13 |
12 |
19 |
11 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
22 |
24 |
23 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
13 |
5 |
16.3 |
|
SCA |
1,638 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
17 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
16 |
11 |
15 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
14 |
15 |
10.6 |
|
SSK |
1,160 |
9 |
8 |
12 |
4 |
13 |
8 |
13 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
18 |
18 |
8 |
9.9 |
|
CLT |
1,113 |
10 |
5 |
11 |
7 |
14 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
10 |
21 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
20 |
24 |
10.7 |
|
WKB |
887 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
24 |
18 |
22 |
11 |
24 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
13.2 |
|
KAN |
811 |
12 |
6 |
19 |
18 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
22 |
23 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
11 |
16 |
11 |
4 |
10.2 |
|
CHI |
768 |
13 |
15 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
13 |
15 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
10 |
14 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
8.5 |
|
KCB |
699 |
14 |
19 |
9 |
5 |
17 |
22 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
13 |
20 |
4 |
22 |
19 |
14 |
16.6 |
|
BKS |
680 |
15 |
20 |
22 |
11 |
12 |
21 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
13 |
16 |
6 |
13 |
4 |
16 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
18 |
11.8 |
|
SAL |
623 |
16 |
13 |
2 |
13 |
9 |
23 |
23 |
20 |
6 |
10 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
10 |
7 |
1 |
9.7 |
|
FLG |
592 |
17 |
7 |
17 |
14 |
22 |
9 |
17 |
5 |
4 |
20 |
22 |
18 |
22 |
8 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
5 |
13 |
13.5 |
|
GSL |
505 |
18 |
11 |
21 |
23 |
18 |
15 |
9 |
15 |
13 |
16 |
21 |
20 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
6 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
15.9 |
|
LVF |
493 |
19 |
21 |
20 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
18 |
22 |
20 |
11 |
10 |
14 |
15 |
21 |
17 |
13 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
17.5 |
|
SLF |
255 |
20 |
10 |
18 |
9 |
23 |
10 |
20 |
8 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
7 |
8 |
15 |
10 |
11.8 |
|
SCS |
91 |
21 |
14 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
12 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
12 |
5 |
9 |
13 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
17 |
8.3 |
|
JOP |
70 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
22 |
20 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
23 |
22 |
15 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
13.7 |
|
BCJ |
69 |
23 |
22 |
14 |
19 |
24 |
6 |
6 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
23 |
9 |
3 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
21 |
15.7 |
|
GLS |
0 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
21 |
6 |
17 |
24 |
18 |
16 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
16 |
9 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
6 |
18.1 |
#1 Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Ronald
Acuna (1), Francisco Mejia (10), Mitch Keller (16), Keston Hiura (34),
Austin Hays (43), Corbin Burnes (61), Monte Harrison (63), Austin Riley
(82), Brandon Woodruff (102), Brett Phillips (108), Franklyn Kilome
(116), Tristen Lutz (116)
Unranked prospects: Shed Long, Yairo Munoz, Colton Welker, Phil
Bickford, Luis Ortiz, Bryse Wilson
For the second year in a row, Team
Meh's farm system ranks #1. Even after the graduations of Dansby Swanson
(ranked #2 a year ago) and Josh Bell (#24), the Ryche remain atop the
BDBL thanks to the breakout season by Acuna. The first #1 overall prospect in Akron
franchise history, his ascension is well-deserved, as he demolished
three different minor league levels last season at the age of 19.
Arguably his best performance came at the highest level (Triple-A),
where he hit .344/.393/.548 over 221 at-bats. With his combination of
power, speed, and defense, Acuna should make an immediate impact in the
2019 BDBL season.
It looks like #2 prospect Mejia may end
up at third base, at least at the beginning, which reduces his value
somewhat. He has always had the bat to stick at third, but would be a
real asset behind the plate. Keller gives Akron three top-20 prospects
for the first time since 2001. Akron's three top-20 prospects back then? Bobby
Bradley, Alex Escobar, and Jose Ortiz. Let's hope Akron's current three
pan out better than those three!
Hiura is a bat-first middle infielder,
which is a rarity. Hays was Akron's somewhat controversial $2 million
signing in this year's free agent draft. He finished his 2017 season
with over 30 home runs, but tends to swing and miss a lot. The reviews
seem to be mixed on Hays, as he ranked as high as #21 (Baseball America)
and as low as #90 (Fangraphs) by our panel of experts.
One prospect Fangraphs liked better
than all the others was Burnes, who ranked #35 for Fangraphs, but no
higher than #69 by anyone else. I tend to agree with Fangraphs on that
one. Of course, Burnes is only one of the MANY Milwaukee Brewers
prospects appearing on the Akron farm club, along with Hiura, Woodruff,
Ortiz, Lutz, Phillips, and Bickford. Okay, we get it, DJ. You like
Milwaukee. Shlamiel, schlamazel. Enough's enough, mm-kay?
#2
St. Louis Apostles
Ranked prospects: Alex Reyes
(11), A.J. Puk (24), Triston McKenzie (30), Luis Robert (31), Franklin
Barreto (42), Alec Hansen (50), Yadier Alvarez (60), Kyle Lewis (70),
Anderson Espinoza (84), Robert Puason (145), Jeren Kendall (156)
Unranked prospects: Micker Adolfo, Yoelquis Cespedes, Bubba
Thompson, Freddy Peralta, Lewis Thorpe
For the sixth year in a row, the
Apostles farm system ranks among the top three. No other team in league
history can make that claim. How Bobby Sylvester manages to maintain a
top-three farm system for so long is no secret. Trading, trading, trading. Then more
trading. Of their eleven ranked prospects, only Robert, Puason, and
Kendall were drafted by St. Louis. All others were acquired via trade.
Reyes was the #3-ranked prospect a year
ago before he was forced to shut down for the season after Tommy John
surgery. There is no reason to think he won't return as strong as ever
and regain his position as one of the top pitching prospects in
baseball. The left-handed Puk was perhaps the most consistently-ranked
prospect in this year's report. He was ranked #30 by three of our
experts, #32 by another, and #15 by Bobby. He projects to be a solid,
middle-of-the-rotation starter. McKenzie's rankings ranged from #21-#51,
although I like him better than Puk.
Robert managed just 84 at-bats last
season, and yet was ranked #21 by Fangraphs, #28 by MLB.com, and #14 by
Bobby, based on scouting reports alone. Puason (a 14-year-old who can't
be signed until July of 2019) and Kendall (a 2018 prep prospect) were
ineligible for all the other lists, but ranked #93 and #97,
respectively, on the FantasyPros list.
#3
Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Nick
Senzel (5), Gleyber Torres (6), Brendan McKay (23), Mike Soroka (32),
Michel Baez (37), Leody Taveras (45), Dustin Fowler (94), Brent Rooker
(141), Brandon Marsh (156)
Unranked prospects: Gilberto Celestino, Juan DeLeon, Travis
Demeritte, Ha-Seong Kim, Jelfrey Marte, Juan Carlos Negret, Logan Allen
Well, knock me over with a feather!
What is this I see? The Rocks of Cleveland ranked...number three
in the BDBL Farm Report?! What sort of chicanery is this? This is a
franchise that has long taken pride in finishing at the bottom of this
report. Their average ranking of 17.6 trails only the pathetic and
embarrassing Great Lakes Sphinx.
The offseason trades of Corey Kluber
and Jacob deGrom netted this team's top two prospects, both ranked among
the top six overall. Needless to say, these are the highest-ranked prospects in Cleveland history. (The previous highest-ranked prospect
was Troy Tulowitzki at #10 in 2007.) With his combination of power,
discipline, and plate coverage, Senzel looks like a future all-star.
Torres has the profile of a future all-star as well. Both players should
see significant playing time in MLB 2018.
Our recently-passed rule change
allowing pitchers with a significant number of at-bats to swing away as
pinch hitters could benefit the Rocks should Shohei Ohtani spark a trend
that paves the way for McKay to become a designated hitter on his days off.
Although he hit just .232/.349/.376 in his 125-AB pro debut, he is
supposed to be an excellent hitter in addition to a solid pitching
prospect. Soroka is the latest in a long line of polished pitchers
coming out of the Braves farm system. He could make an impact in the
BDBL as early as next year.
At #37 overall, Baez was the
highest-ranked prospect selected in last month's farm draft. He seemingly
came out of nowhere last year to post rates of 1.2 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 at
the Low-A level. Baseball America regards him so highly they ranked him
among the top 30 prospects in the game (#28).
Times have changed so drastically,
Cleveland has even dipped into the Dominican (Marte) and Korean (Kim)
markets for prospects. Oh, what strange times we live in.
#4
Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Fernando
Tatis, Jr. (7), Bo Bichette (9), Kyle Tucker (15), Franklin Perez (53),
Dylan Cease (64), Albert Abreu (65), Sandy Alcantara (92), Mitchell
White (100), Touki Toussaint (108), Dustin May (119), Tyler Mahle (123),
Ronald Guzman (147), Takahiro Norimoto (153)
Unranked prospects: Alex Jackson, Seong-Beom Na, Justin Williams,
Kyle Muller, Takahiro Norimoto
That party didn't last long, did it? A
year ago, I was celebrating the long-awaited demise of the Los Altos farm system on
this page, and speculating as to whether maybe Jeff Paulson was becoming
so bored with winning that he was no longer willing to put in the effort
to maintain a healthy farm club. A single trade was all it took for Los
Altos to leap from #23 in this ranking all the way into the top-five.
Thud. Thud. Thud. (That's the sound of my head colliding with my desk
repeatedly.)
At this point, it's all but guaranteed
that Tatis will become a perennial MVP candidate. He has everything
you'd like to see in a prospect: bloodline, power, speed, agility,
athleticism, plate discipline, and what one writer called "acrobatic
brilliance" in the field. Good grief. Thud, thud, thud. He was acquired
in the Chris Sale trade along with the #15-ranked prospect in the game,
Tucker. Tucker evolved from a line-drive hitter to a power hitter in
2017, which vaulted him up the ranking from #33 a year ago.
Perhaps no prospect in baseball rose
higher in the ranking over the past year than Bichette, who wasn't even
ranked by anyone a year ago. Check out these career numbers:
.372/.427/.591, 50 doubles, 18 home runs, 25 stolen bases, in 530
at-bats. And he has struck out fewer than 100 times. Thud. Thud. Thud.
The rankings for Perez were all over
the board. He was ranked as high as #35 (by Baseball America) and as low
as #100 (Fangraphs.) Of the five Los Altos pitching prospects ranked
among the top-100, he is the worst (in my opinion), and yet he is still
likely to become at least a solid mid-rotation pitcher. Of those four, I
believe that White (career numbers: 2.26 ERA, 96 IP, 52 H, 37 BB, 118 K)
is underrated, and will rank much higher a year from now.
#5
Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Vladimir
Guerrero, Jr. (2), Victor Robles (3), Lewis Brinson (16), Jesus Sanchez
(47), Carson Kelly (59), Christian Pache (93), Bobby Witt, Jr. (101),
Kevin Maitan (107), Seuly Matias (126), Estanli Castillo (147), Wander
Javier (151)
Unranked prospects: Austin Hendrick, Ronaldo Hernandez, Khalil
Lee, Freudis Nova, Jeisson Rosario, Esteury Ruiz, Ryan Castellani
Make it SEVEN in a row for the
Niagara Locks farm system finishing among the top-five in this survey.
This year's ranking is credited mostly to Guerrero making a huge move up
the charts, from #41 a year ago all the way to #2. Like Tatis, Guerrero
has everything you want in a prospect: bloodline, performance at an
advanced level at a young age, power, and plate discipline. In his
professional career to date, he has hit a remarkable .303/.401/.471 in
673 at-bats, with 40 doubles, 21 home runs, and more walks (109) than
strikeouts (97).
The last team to accomplish the feat of
owning two of the games top three prospects was...the Niagara Locks.
Back in 2014, Niagara owned both the #1 (Byron Buxton) and #2 (Xander
Bogaerts) prospects in the game. That worked out pretty well for them,
didn't it? Now, add to the mix two more with Guerrero and Robles. Robles is a
future star, with game-breaking speed, gap power, plate discipline, and
a gold glove in center field.
With the Miami Marlins throwing in the
towel on the 2018 season, Brinson will likely get a significant amount
of playing time at the big league level. He may struggle at first, given
his past issues with plate discipline, but he will eventually become a
valuable asset sooner rather than later.
The bottom six of the ranked group are
interesting because five of them were ranked by only one of our experts.
The most interesting of them all is Pache, who wasn't ranked by four of
our panel, yet was ranked in the top-40 (#37) by Fangraphs. Fangraphs
touts his elite athleticism, speed, arm, and defense, which seem like
secondary skills in the prospecting world, but have a true impact in the
real world. Witt (ranked #55 by FantasyPros) and Castillo (#94 by FP)
aren't eligible for any of the other lists, which explains their
absence. Maitan was ranked #87 and #72 by MLB.com and FantasyPros,
respectively, a year after ranking #66 overall on this list a year ago
(demonstrating how foolish it is to rank 14- and 15-year-olds in the
top-100.)
#6
Myrtle Beach Hitmen
Ranked prospects: Forrest
Whitley (8), MacKenzie Gore (22), Alex Verdugo (36), Keibert Ruiz (57),
Jo Adell (58), Carter Kieboom (67), Chance Adams (72), Jesse Winker
(87), Mickey Moniak (112)
Unranked prospects: Yasel Antuna, Randy Arozarena, Eduardo Diaz,
Larry Ernesto, Kristian Robinson, Brice Turang, Jared Miller
Jim Doyle's old franchise hasn't seen a
Farm Report ranking this high since 2006. Whitley and Kieboom are
carryovers from the Doyle Era. The rest of the ranked were acquired by
the brothers Gill. Whitley looks like an ace-in-the-making. He rocketed
up to a top-ten ranking all the way from #99 a year ago after a 2017
performance where he dominated hitters at three different levels. In 111
pro innings he has struck out 169 batters -- an average of 13.7 per
nine. Gore, the third overall pick in the 2017 MLB draft, had an even
more impressive K/9 rate of 14.3 in his brief seven-game professional
debut. Only 19 and 18 years old, respectively, Whitley and Gore have the
potential to form a dominating one-two punch atop the Myrtle Beach
rotation in the near future. Adams (career numbers: 313 IP, 2.33 ERA,
5.9 H/9, 9.3 K/9) could add a third quality arm, and will arrive sooner
than the other two.
Although Verdugo hasn't shown much
power in his career as of yet, his bat is Major League-ready at age 20.
The problem for him is finding playing time in the crowded Dodgers
outfield. His LA-franchise teammate, Ruiz, was one of only two top-60 overall
players to be drafted in this winter's farm draft. Like Verdugo, he has
a plus bat, but without much power. At only 18 years old, he has plenty
of time to develop it.
The number one overall pick in the MLB
draft has usually been a slam-dunk future star, historically. Recent
history, though, hasn't been kind to teams with that #1 pick. The past
five drafts have seen a couple of real stinkers named Mark Appel and
Brady Aiken. Moniak looks like he may be another. In his brief two-year
career, he has hit just .249/.300/.360 in 642 at-bats, with only six
home runs and 144 strikeouts (and just 39 walks.) MLB.com (#88) and
FantasyPros (#76) were the only two outlets that ranked him among the
top 100.
Turang is currently ranked as the #5
prospect in the MLB 2018 draft by Baseball America. As a
left-handed-hitting shortstop with a plus bat, who looks as though he
will stay at shortstop as a professional, he is a true rarity.
#7
Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Michael
Kopech (12), Brent Honeywell (13), Walker Buehler (15), Anthony Alford
(44), Tyler O'Neill (82), Blake Rutherford (115), Jake Burger (134),
Pavin Smith (139), Nick Lodolo (141)
Unranked prospects: Dylan Cozens, Lucas Erceg, K.J. Harrison,
Isaac Paredes, Bryan Reynolds, Trevor Rogers, Clarke Schmidt
The preseason trades of Justin
Verlander and Dinelson Lamet netted Kopech and Rutherford, respectively.
Darren O'Day and Jose Pirela netted O'Neill and Erceg. Kopech still had
trouble finding the plate in 2017 (4.5 BB/9 at Double-A), but at least
he took a step in the right direction, as he averaged five walks per
nine in 2016. His fastball has been called the best in the minor
leagues, and his slider is above-average. Without a third pitch,
however, it's difficult to see him remaining in the rotation. Our panel of experts
clearly disagree with me, however. Kopech was ranked among the top
twenty by all five members of our panel, with a high of #10 by MLB.com
and a low of #20 by Fangraphs.
Personally, I like Honeywell and
Buehler better than Kopech. Honeywell doesn't throw 102 miles per hour
like Kopech, but he has no less than four "plus" pitches and a career
walk rate that is barely above 2.0. His BB/K ratio at Triple-A last year
was a stellar 31/152 in 123+ innings. Buehler also has three "plus"
pitches, including a fastball graded 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He
has managed less than 100 pro innings thanks to injuries, yet he's
already Major League-ready.
Alford is the type of prospect whose
numbers don't match his scouting reports. He's supposed to be a
power/speed type of player, and yet he's never hit more than nine home
runs or stolen more than 27 bases in any minor league season. Maybe the
power and speed show up in different ways?
#8
Southern California Slyme
Ranked prospects: Brendan
Rodgers (14), Willie Calhoun (38), Luis Urias (32), Kolby Allard (51),
Alex Faedo (73), Jorge Alfaro (79), Michael Chavis (86), Riley Pint
(89), Isan Diaz (102), Nader de Sedas (126), Harrison Bader (134),
Jarred Kelenic (158)
Unranked prospects: Seth Beer, Joe Gray, Jr., Julio Pablo
Martinez, Christin Stewart, Jackson Kowar, Kumar Rocker
The problem with drafting high school
and college underclassmen is that by the time they are draft-eligible,
more often than not, they're no longer at the top of their draft class. For every Bryce
Harper, who everyone knew would be a star when he was a high school
freshman, there are a dozen Drew Wards, Clinton Hollises, and Lastings
Milledges. Another example may be Rocker, the #1 overall pick in last
year's farm draft. He was projected to be the #1 pick in the 2018 draft
a year ago, but is now ranked #13 by Baseball America. Another one of
SoCal's 2017 farm picks, Gray, is now ranked #42 on that same list.
Beer, who was SoCal's #1 overall pick in the 2016 midseason farm draft,
was considered to be a no-brainer first round pick in MLB 2018. Today,
he is ranked #34 by Baseball America.
Another player once ranked as the #1
prospect in the 2016 draft when he was only a high school junior is
Pint. Proving the exception the rule, he ended up being selected fourth overall. Yet, to
date, he owns an ERA of 5.40 and a lackluster 82/115 BB/K ratio in 130
professional innings. On the flip side, two of Bob Sylvester's 2017
underclassmen gambles, Jackson Kowar and Jarred Kelenic, have seemingly
paid dividends. They are ranked #8 and #10 by BA, respectively.
Counting De Sedas (SoCal's first farm
pick of 2018), the Sylme own four of the top thirteen players on
Baseball America's list of top draft prospects. De Sedas may have his
path to the Slyme's shortstop position blocked by their number one prospect, Rodgers. Rodgers
absolutely destroyed the Hi-A level in 2017, but with the major caveat
that it was the California League, which is notorious for inflating
offensive numbers. Still, batting .383/.403/.667 is impressive no matter
where it happens. If he sticks at shortstop (which looks likely), he
could be an all-star.
Calhoun has Kirby Puckett's
proportions, and his best defensive position is DH, but he has
undeniable power at the plate. Urias has no power whatsoever (only nine
home runs in 1,306 career at-bats), and I wouldn't ever allow him to
steal a base (37 stolen bases, 29 caught stealing), but he has such
incredible bat control (career .310 average, 153 walks, 135 K's) that
he's bound to stick in the big leagues once he gets there.
#9
Saskatoon Sasquatch
Ranked prospects: Kyle
Wright (28), Austin Meadows (39), Justus Sheffield (45), Nick Gordon
(71), Jahmai Jones
(84), Nate Pearson (114), Yusniel Diaz (123)
Unranked prospects: Will Banfield, Lucius Fox,
Lourdes Gurriel, Drew Mendoza, Corey Ray, J.J. Schwarz, Logan Warmouth,
Shane McClanahan
Wright was the fifth overall pick in
the 2017 MLB draft. He logged only 17 innings as a professional last
year, but will more than likely see the big leagues before the end of
the year. It seems as though Meadows has been around forever, and yet
he's only five months older than Wright. Meadows first appeared on this page way back in
2013, and climbed steadily up the ranking all the way to #8 last year.
Needless to say, given his #39 ranking this year, he has taken a step back. After failing to hit Triple-A
pitching in 2016 (.214/.297/.460 in 126 AB's), he didn't fare much
better against them (.250/.311/.359) during his second attempt last year. Injuries played a part
in his poor performance, but he seemed to finish the year strong. With McCutchen out of the way in Pittsburgh, Meadows could take his place in
the rebuilding Pirates lineup.
Sheffield's numbers and scouting
reports suggest his ceiling will be as a number three starter. He throws
several pitches well, but none are "plus." He has decent command, and
gets a decent number of strikeouts. Among our panel of experts, he
ranked as high as #39 (Fangraphs) and as low as #73 (FantasyPros.)
Gordon is the Justus Sheffield of hitting prospects, with solid "50"
grades up and down his scouting card. There is nothing he does
particularly well or poorly. He projects as a league-average second
baseman.
The unranked list is filled with
familiar names. In addition to serving as Bruce Wayne's business
manager, Fox was supposed to be one of the more intriguing international
signings of the 2015 season. He was signed for a whopping $6.5 million,
based on glowing scouting reports. He was then traded from San Francisco
to the Rays in 2016 in the Matt Moore trade. To date, all we've learned
about Fox is that he can run really fast.
The same glowing scouting reports were
written about Gurriel, who was said to be the best young hitter in Cuba
just before he defected. He was signed to a whopping $22 million,
seven-year, contract. What have the Blue Jays received for their $22
million investment so far? A .197/.217/.258 performance at the High-A
level last year, followed by a .241/.286/.371 batting line at Double-A.
Like Wright and Gordon, Corey Ray was
also the fifth overall pick in the MLB draft. He was ranked #32 on this
list a year ago. Then he hit .241/.313/.372 in the High-A Carolina
League last year and fell off of everyone's radar. Finally, Schwarz was
considered to be the top freshman in the country when I first drafted
him several years ago, and a possible #1
overall pick in the 2018 draft. Where does Baseball America rank him
today? #142.
#10
Charlotte Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Sixto
Sanchez (19), Scott Kingery (28), Juan Soto (33), Ke'Bryan Hayes (102),
Alex Kirilloff (158)
Unranked prospects: Michael Gettys, James Nelson, Jaime Barria,
Peter Lambert, Bryan Mata, Nick Neidert, Chris Rodriguez, Nick Rumbelow
Sixto Sanchez sounds like a villain in
a Spaghetti Western, but he's actually a flamethrowing pitching prospect with
the Phillies organization. He can reach 102 miles per hour with his
fastball -- which used to be impressive, but now seems commonplace. What
makes him truly unique is his ability to limit walks (an average of 1.65
per nine in his career) and home runs (only two allowed in 174+ career
innings.) He won't turn 20 until nearly August, so it will be
interesting to see if those numbers are maintained as he is challenged
at a higher level of competition.
Kingery came out of nowhere last year
and suddenly became a power hitter at age 23. He hit just three home
runs in 2015, five in 2016, and then exploded with 26 last year. He
already had a good deal of value as a plus defender at second base, and
above-average speed on the base paths. If the newfound power is legit,
we could be looking at a future all-star.
Soto has posted some ridiculous numbers
in his pro career so far: .362/.418/.535, with 8 home runs, and a 29/38
BB/K ratio in 301 at-bats. He's managed to play only 83 professional
games due to injuries, and he is only average, at best,
defensively. His short-sample performance, however, suggests that his
bat will carry him to the big leagues eventually.
#11
Western Kansas Buffaloes
Ranked prospects: Willy
Adames (21), Jack Flaherty (48), Ryan McMahon (69), Stephen Gonsalves
(95), Ethan Hankins (106), Zack Burdi (138), Bobby Bradley (141), Adam
Haseley (147)
Unranked prospects: Jeremy Eierman, Kevin Merrell, Roman Quinn,
Matt Thaiss, Grant Holmes, Tanner Houck, James Kaprielian
Last month, GM Rodney Wilkie loaded his
farm club with two of the best prospects available in this coming year's
MLB draft. Hankins, a high school senior, is currently ranked as the #2
prospect in the draft by MLB.com. He could become the first-ever high school
right-handed pitcher to be selected #1 overall. His fastball is graded a
perfect 80, but he will need to develop a breaking pitch to take his
game to the next level. Eierman is ranked #13 by MLB. For now, he is a
power-hitting college shortstop. More than likely, he will end up at
third base, where it has been said he could be a gold glover.
Adames ranks #21 overall for the second
year in a row. He will more than likely be ineligible to make it three
in a row next year, given that he's likely to win a spot on the Rays'
Opening Day roster. He tends to walk a lot and strike out a lot, but as
a shortstop with double-digit home run power, he's a rarity.
Flaherty rose from #119 a year ago to
the top 50 after another solid year at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.
Although he doesn't have a particular pitch that stands out as
above-average, the Cardinals organization has an uncanny way of turning
those average-looking pitchers into stars.
McMahon was ranked as high as #41 (MLB.com)
and as low as #99 (Baseball Prospectus.) He is basically a
garden-variety left-handed power-hitting first baseman with an average
glove. He did hit .374 at the Triple-A level last year, but a) it was
the PCL, and b) it was Albuquerque. So take that with a giant boulder of
salt. He has a shot at being named the Opening Day first baseman for
Colorado this year.
#12
Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Royce
Lewis (25), Taylor Trammell (52), Cal Quantrill (54), Sean Murphy (131),
Jose Siri (145)
Unranked prospects: Luis Almanzar, Gabriel Arias, Lewin Diaz,
Brayan Hernandez, Edwin Rios, Mark Vientos, Ryan Vilade, Tyler Beede,
Jordan Humphreys, Osiel Rodriguez
Nine months after he was selected as
the #1 overall pick in the 2017 MLB draft, Lewis is a top-25 prospect.
His game is all about power and speed. Whether he ends up at shortstop
or center field remains to be seen. Trammell is basically Lewis, only
with less bat and less plate discipline. Siri is Trammell, only with a
little more power and even less plate discipline.
Quantrill was the eighth overall pick
in the 2016 MLB draft. He pitched well in two very tough pitchers
leagues in 2017, and looks to move quickly up the ladder. He was ranked
as high as #40 (by MLB.com), but failed to make Fangraphs' top-100.
#13
Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Eloy
Jimenez (4), Ian Anderson (41), Nolan Gorman (136)
Unranked prospects: Trenton Clark, Casey Gillaspie, Nolan Jones,
Gavin Lux, Nick Pratto, Tyler Stephenson, Travis Swaggerty, Evan White,
Spencer Adams, Shane Bieber, D.L. Hall, Pierce Johnson, Brendon Little
Believe it or not, this is the
eighth year in which the Black Sox have owned a top-five prospect.
Jimenez made a mockery of High-A and Double-A pitching last season. He
will soon join Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton among the group of giant MLB
sluggers with "80" power and 120-mph exit velocities. We should also
expect to see high exit velocity readings when Gorman becomes a
professional. One of the top power hitters in the coming MLB draft,
Gorman is ranked #4 in the 2018 draft class by MLB.com.
In addition to playing the flute,
Anderson is also an accomplished pitcher who was selected third overall
in the 2016 MLB draft. In 122+ innings since then, he has allowed just
102 hits, with 55 walks and 137 strikeouts. He will need to get those
walks under control to succeed at the next level.
The most interesting player in the
unranked group is Swaggerty, a 2018 draft prospect who has been compared
to Brett Gardner. Bieber is also an interesting prospect, both because
of the startling numbers he has posted to date (197+ IP, 2.55 ERA, 183
K's, and only 8 walks) and because it's so easy to make fun of his name.
#14
Kansas City Boulevards
Ranked prospects: Hunter
Greene (27), Jon Duplantier (66), Jesus Luzardo (78), Brady Singer (91),
Colin Moran (98)
Unranked prospects: Hunter Dozier, Heath Quinn, George Valera,
Tyler Danish, Blayne Enlow, Brusdar Graterol, Hunter Harvey, Dakota
Hudson, Mike Matuella, Casey Mize
Greene didn't play enough at the pro
level last year to evaluate him by the numbers, so all we have at this
point are scouting reports. Those reports suggest that he throws very
hard, and is working on a secondary pitch. He is also an excellent
hitter, so if he doesn't make it as a pitcher, he can always try the
Rick Ankiel route to the big leagues.
Luzardo is a very interesting prospect.
He had Tommy John surgery before he was drafted, and missed the 2016
season as a result. He made his pro debut last year, and was traded
during the season. He ended the year with some eye-popping numbers (43+
IP, 35 H, 5 BB, 48 K, 1.66 ERA), but in a very small sample. He's a
left-hander who can touch 98 mph, and has a (albeit brief) track record
of performance, so you have to wonder why he was
traded.
Singer is the odds-on favorite to be
selected first overall in the MLB draft this June. He wasn't eligible
for any of our experts' lists except FantasyPros, who ranked him #35.
That seems about right, based on his college numbers and scouting
reports.
Brusdar Graterol is a giant who lives
beyond the Wall among the Free Folk known as wildlings. When he isn't
taking down a mammoth with his bare hands, he enjoys hiking in the
Frostfangs and fishing along the Frozen Shore.
#15
Buckingham Sovereigns
Ranked prospects: Estevan
Florial (40), Miguel Andujar (56), Jake Bauers (62), Jorge Guzman (98)
Unranked prospects: Thairo Estrada, Dermis Garcia, Starling
Heredia, Billy McKinney, Nick Solak, Anderson Tejeda, Kyle Funkhouser,
Jordan Hicks, Luis Medina, Freicer Perez, Yefrey Ramirez, Tony Santillan
The Akron Ryche are obsessed with
Milwaukee Brewers prospects. The Kansas Law Dogs and Kansas City
Boulevards are inclined toward Royals prospects. The Chicago-based
teams are often filled with Cubs and White Sox prospects. It's no secret
that the Buckingham Sovereigns are completely addicted to Yankees
prospects. Two of
the team's four ranked prospects hail from the Yankees farm system (with
Guzman only recently traded from New York), and six of the unranked are property of the Bronx Bombers as well.
Florial has a tantalizing combination
of power and speed, but his swing-and-miss hitting style led to quite a
bit of discrepancy among our panel of experts. He was ranked as high as
#26 by Baseball Prospectus, and as low as #79 by Fangraphs. Those two
experts had the exact opposite opinion of Andujar. He was ranked #14 by
Fangraphs, but didn't even make the cut for BP's top-100. Andujar was
every bit as toolsy and unpolished as Florial a couple years ago, but
made some adjustments, and now looks like a solid bet to be an
above-average major league third baseman. Given their three-year
difference in age, Florial has plenty of time to make a similar
adjustment.
The Yankees farm system includes a ton
of flame-throwers capable of touching triple digits. Guzman was one of
them, but was traded to Miami in the Stanton deal. Medina is another,
and Perez can get his fastball close to there as well. Of the three,
Guzman is the most polished, and yet he still hasn't pitched past the
rookie level.
#16
Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Shohei
Ohtani (20), Yordan Alvarez (77), J.B. Bukauskas (96), Yusei Kikuchi
(119), Danny Jansen (122), Wander Franco (153)
Unranked prospects: Triston Casas, Griffin Conine, Brandon Lowe,
Nick Madrigal, Jhailyn Ortiz, Matt Wallner, Vladimir Gutierrez, Ryan
Helsley, Ryan Weathers
If not for Baseball Prospectus' blatant
racism against Japanese people, Ohtani would have been the fifth
prospect in franchise history to rank #1 overall in this report.
However, because BP unfairly segregates Japanese players, he was omitted
entirely from their list. As a result, Ohtani fell all the way down to #20. Life isn't fair, people. Needless to say, Ohtani has been
the topic of a great deal of hype and chatter since he decided to leave Japan to
pursue a big league career. As skilled at the plate as he is on the
mound, he is the most unique player the baseball world has seen in quite
a long time. Regardless of how the season unfolds, it will be fun to
watch. Another Japanese pitcher who remains in Japan, Kikuchi, wasn't
qualified for anyone's list but FantasyPros, who had him ranked at #69.
Alvarez didn't make BP's list, either,
nor did he make it to the MLB.com top-100. Fangraphs, however, placed
him among the top 50 prospects in baseball at #44. A Cuban refugee, he
hits for both power and average, and has surprising speed for a guy his
size. In fact, no Cowtippers prospect managed to be included on all five
expert lists this year.
Three prospects that I personally
believe will shoot up the ranking in 2018 are Jansen, Franco, and Ortiz.
Jansen hasn't received much attention because, up until last season, he
didn't really do much. However, he made some adjustments to both his
swing and his eyeballs, and I'm betting that those adjustments are
sustainable. Franco was the biggest name in the 2017 international
prospects pool. Based on his scouting reports, he has the potential to
be a star. Ortiz was among the biggest 2016 international signings, and
made huge strides at the plate and in the field last year. Frankly, I'm
surprised he wasn't ranked by anyone this year.
Madrigal, Weathers, and Conine are all
ranked among the top 20 prospects by MLB.com in this year's MLB draft,
and Casas is ranked #39. Wallner was Baseball America's Freshman of the
Year in 2017, and is projected to be a top pick in 2019.
#17
Flagstaff Outlaws
Ranked prospects: J.P.
Crawford (26), Adonis Medina (73), Fernando Romero (96), Dane Dunning
(110), Andres Gimenez (126)
Unranked prospects: Bryce Johnson, Sheldon Neuse, Ryan O'Hearn,
Jake Rogers, Rogelio Armenteros, Aaron Civale, Taylor Clarke, Ian
Clarkin, Trevor Clifton, Oscar de la Cruz
This winter, the Outlaws took their
prospects piggy bank, held it over Jeff Paulson's head, and shook it
until Paulson was satisfied enough to hand over Chris Sale. That left
Crawford as the franchise's top prospect for the second year in a row.
Bobby Sylvester's FantasyPros list ranked Crawford lower than any of the
other four experts at #48. Baseball America ranked Crawford at #16, and
Baseball Prospectus gave him a ranking of #14. Count me in the Sylvester
camp. I just don't see the reason for the hype. Five years into his
professional career, we're looking at a good defensive middle infielder with a
.270 lifetime batting average and a .391 slugging percentage. Granted,
there is value in his on-base ability (.367 lifetime OBP) and glove, but
a top-20 prospect?
Medina didn't do very much in his
career up until last year, when everything seemed to click for him.
Given that he's only 20 years old, we should chalk it up to on-the-job
training and assume his 2017 gains were legit. Romero didn't make the
cut for Baseball America or Fangraphs, but ranked as high as #68 (MLB.com)
on the other three lists. Dunning, a first round pick in 2016, tore up
both Single-A levels last year, but at age 22. His next jump to Double-A
will reveal how legitimate of a prospect he is.
#18
Granite State Lightning
Ranked prospects: Adrian
Morejon (55), Jorge Mateo (68), Jay Groome (75), Magneuris Sierra (102),
Christian Arroyo (131)
Unranked prospects: Jose Miguel Fernandez, Luis Yander La O,
Jorge Ona, Byung-Ho Park, Cornelius Randolph, Forrest Wall, Hagen
Danner, Shintaro Fujinami, Norge Ruiz, Kohl Stewart
Several years after Granite State's own
DACA (Draft All Cubans, ASAP) policy began, the team has little to show
for it aside from their #1 prospect, Morejon. His numbers in his pro
debut (63 IP, 65 H, 16 BB, 58 K, 3.86 ERA) weren't exactly stellar, but
he was impressive enough that three of our panel of experts ranked him
among the top-50 prospects in the game (just barely, as two ranked him
exactly at #50.) Fernandez, La O ("O?" "La O"? "Yander La O?"), Ona, and
Ruiz didn't garner any attention from the panel. Fernandez's year was
particularly disappointing. He was ranked as the #1 player in Cuba (by
Baseball America) when he defected. It was expected that there would be
a bidding war for his services, and that he would make an instant MLB
impact when signed. Instead, he signed for a mere $200,000, played half
a season at the Double-A level (where he hit a respectable
.306/.366/.498), and was then released in November. He has yet to sign
with another team.
Mateo is another odd case. He had a
disappointing 2016 season, both at the plate and off the field. He then
rebounded in 2017, hitting .300/.381/.525 before he was traded to
Oakland as part of the Sonny Gray deal. He continued his rebound season
by hitting .292/.333/.518 for his new club. Note the emergence of
power-hitting to his game, which already included "80" speed on the
20-80 scouting scale. You would think a shortstop/center fielder with
speed, power, and a decent batting eye would be ranked among the top
prospects in the game. Instead, he was omitted from FantasyPros' list
entirely, and his highest ranking was only #58 (by Fangraphs.)
Groome managed to (barely) make it to
the top-75 despite a rather horrific season in which he posted a 6.70
ERA in his first pass at the A-ball level. In 62 career innings, he owns
a BB/9 ratio of 4.9, and a K/9 ratio of 11.9. There is great potential
there, but the kid has to learn how to harness his stuff.
#19
Las Vegas Flamingoes
Ranked prospects: Luiz
Gohara (34), Heliot Ramos (80), Beau Burrows (119), Seth Romero (129),
Zack Collins (139), Braxton Garrett (147), Cole Ragans (153)
Unranked prospects: Pete Alonso, Austin Beck, Joe Dunand, Anthony
Kay, Eric Lauer, Joey Lucchesi
With only two prospects ranked among
the top-100, there isn't much to talk about here. Gohara's rankings
ranged from #23 (Baseball America) to #62 (Baseball Prospectus.) Given
his background as a former highly-decorated international prospect, his
left-handedness, his plus fastball and slider, and his age (20), I'm
inclined to rank him toward the top end of that range.
It's too early to project Ramos'
career, but so far, in his small 35-game professional career, his
numbers match his scouting reports. Of the other prospects on this
roster, I have only one word: meh.
#20
South Loop Furies
Ranked prospects: Matt
Manning (76), Joey Wentz (80), Cole Tucker (125), Erick Fedde (136),
Adbert Alzolay (151)
Unranked prospects: Lazaro Armenteros, Will Benson, Braden
Bishop, Andy Ibanez, Joshua Lowe, Kevin Newman, Chris Shaw, Jose De
Leon, Cionel Perez, David Peterson
Pardon the pun, but remember what a
"fury" Armenteros caused in the BDBL? That one non-trade sent one owner
packing and opened the door for Bart Chinn to take over the helm. In his
US debut, Armenteros hit a respectable .288/.376/.474 in 156 at-bats at
the rookie level. Oddly, that performance wasn't convincing enough for
any of our panel of experts to rank him among the top-100. In fact, the
unranked group is more interesting than the ranked group because there
are so many familiar names in the unranked group that were considered
top prospects not long ago: Newman, Shaw, De Leon, and Ibanez in
particular. What happened to them all?
As for the ranked group, not one of
them earned a top-100 ranking from all five experts. Manning managed to
earn three rankings between #55 to #78. Wentz earned three from #45 to
#84. Tucker, Fedde, and Alzolay earned a single ranking of #74, #87, and
#95, respectively. Of that group, Manning seems the most interesting. He
is a former first-round draft pick (ninth overall), and his career
numbers (80+ IP, 68 H, 32 BB, 108 K) suggest he has significant upside.
At age 19, and having pitched less than 20 innings at the single-A
level, he has a long way to go.
#21
South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Shane Baz
(111), Chance Sisco (116), Brian Anderson (133)
Unranked prospects: Akil Baddoo, Luis Garcia, Daniel Johnson,
Ronny Mauricio, Braden Shewmake, Marcus Wilson, Domingo Acevedo, Wil
Crowe, Marcos Diplan, Alex Lange
The Sea Cats owned a top-ten farm
system eight times in the nine years between 2008-2016. When Julio Urias,
Blake Snell, and Ozzie Albies graduated from the farm after 2016/17,
they weren't replaced by a new wave of prospects, and the farm club
seems to have withered on the vine. This is the first year in franchise
history that not one Sea Cats prospect has ranked among the top-100.
Of the players on the current farm, Baz
may be best positioned to ascend to the top-100 over the next year. A
first-round pick (12th overall) in last year's MLB draft, he only
managed to pitch 23+ innings in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. He
was ranked as the #3 prospect in that league by opposing managers. Cisco
earned a cup of coffee in the big leagues last year, but doesn't look
like a starting MLB catcher to me. Anderson doesn't seem to have the bat
to stick as an everyday big league third baseman, either.
#22
Joplin Miners
Ranked prospects: Max Fried
(88)
Unranked prospects: Joey Bart, Mason Denaburg, Tristan Pompey,
Jose Albertos, Tomohiro Anraku, Tim Cate, Logan Gilbert, Matt Liberatore,
Ryan Rolison, Carter Stewart, Mike Vasil, Cole Wilcox
Jim Doyle inherited a farm club that
has ranked among the bottom ten of this report for six years in a row.
To rectify that situation, he returned to his tried-and-true,
no-effort-required, farm-building strategy: running his finger down the
list of top draft prospects and selecting the first one available. That
effort resulted in the acquisition of no fewer than nine of the top 30
prospects (as determined by Baseball America) in the coming June draft.
Of course, that ranking always changes drastically before Draft Day.
Several of those players will likely fall out of the top 30, but that's
okay; Doyle will simply repeat the same exercise in June!
Aside from those potential draftees,
there isn't much left to talk about. Fried was ranked by three of our
experts, but reached a high of #72 by Baseball America. He seemed to be
everyone's "sleeper" prospect a year ago, but then posted a 5.92 ERA in
19 Double-A starts. Sadly, he could be Joplin's prime trade bait at this
point.
#23
Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Ryan
Mountcastle (89)
Unranked prospects: Garrett Hampson, Sam Hilliard, Tomas Nido,
Jordan Patterson, Ryan Borucki, Sam Carlson, Zack Littell, JoJo Romero,
Andrew Suarez, Tom Szapucki
I know that Matt often chides me for
not being a real baseball fan, but do even the most hardcore baseball
fans recognize more than three names on this farm club? Even the ones I
have heard of are yawn-inducing. If you put a gun to my head and made me
choose my favorite Jamboree farm prospect, I guess it would be Romero.
He's left-handed, and he's posted some quality numbers (174+ IP, 148 H,
47 BB, 159 K, 2.27 ERA) in his professional career so far. He's one of
those "fringy" prospects, drafted out of junior college, who doesn't
throw especially hard or possess any pitch that stands out above his
peers, but he could become a back-end starter or situational lefty
reliever in the big leagues if everything breaks right for him. Faint
praise...and he's my favorite!
#24 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Zero
Unranked prospects: Aramis Ademan, Jasrado Chisholm, Bobby Dalbec,
Donnie Dewees, Courtney Hawkins, Domingo Leyba, Dawel Lugo, Eddy Julio
Martinez, Carlos Sepulveda, D.J. Wilson, Chesny Young, Carson Sands
It is extremely difficult not to have a
single ranked prospect, and yet the Sphinx have now achieved this
illustrious feat two years in a row. Not only don't they have any ranked
prospects -- again -- but they don't have the excuse that some of their
unranked prospects are ineligible to be ranked. Scrolling through the
names in that unranked group, I don't see any obvious candidates to
elevate themselves into the list of ranked prospects over the coming
year. |