September, 2018

Chapter Five Recap

Players of the Chapter

Jake Bauers is batting .201/.319/.395 in MLB this season. Billy McKinney was traded for the legendary Ty Blech (113+ IP, 129 H, 40/70 BB/K, 4.28 ERA) last chapter. Nori Aoki returned to Japan this past winter. Aledmys Diaz is hitting .262/.296/.458 in MLB, and is a BDBL free agent after next season. What do Bauers, McKinney, Aoki, and Diaz all have in common? They were all traded to the Cleveland Rocks at the Chapter Two deadline in exchange for Chapter Five's EL Hitter of the Chapter, Justin Upton. Upton hit .325/.402/.735 for the Buckingham Sovereigns, smacked 13 longballs, and led the EL with 28 runs scored and 28 RBI's.

Roughly six weeks ago, on this very same page, I asked why the hell Johnny Bo traded for Joey Votto when his Las Vegas Flamingos were so far out of the division race. Boy is my face red! Vegas won a whopping 22 games in Chapter Five (see story below) and launched themselves right back into the playoffs picture. At least some credit for that is due to our OL Hitter of the Chapter, Votto, who hit .383/.491/.638 with a team-leading 31.4 runs created.

Flagstaff ace Chris Sale is leading the Ozzie League in just about every category. He has already notched his third-straight 20-win season at 21-3, he leads the league in strikeouts (290), and his 2.56 ERA currently ranks fourth in the OL. With all of those accomplishments, it's difficult to believe he's yet to win the OL Pitcher of the Chapter award this year. Let's fix that right now. Sale led the OL with a perfect 6-0 record in Chapter Five. He also led the league with 61 K's, posted a 2.72 ERA, and held opponents to a .183/.214/.333 batting line.

Last winter, the Bear Country Jamboree held the tie-breaker on the bidding for free agent Gio Gonzalez. Their $9.5 million bid was surpassed, however, by the Kansas Law Dogs, who won the bid at $10 million. Gonzo has had a disappointing MLB season in 2018, and probably won't earn his salary a year from now, but he has enjoyed a quality season in Kansas this year. He went 5-0 in Chapter Five, with a 2.04 ERA, and led the league in all three triple-slash categories at .153/.215/.219. He is our EL Pitcher of the Chapter.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Break Up the Flamingos!

Last chapter, I wrote on this page: "The Las Vegas Flamingos are coming off a dreadful 7-17 chapter, and are 47-57 on the season. With two chapters remaining, they trail the first-place South Loop Furies in the Benes Division by seven games. If the Furies play .500 ball the rest of the way, Vegas would need to go 35-21 (.625) just to catch them. In other words, the Flamingos would need to play better baseball than every other team in the Ozzie League with the exception of Flagstaff."

Given that, I questioned the wisdom of Vegas GM Johnny Bochicchio, who had just traded for superstar Joey Votto. Why bother? The fate of this division race was sealed. Put a fork in it. Yeah...about that...

The Flamingos shocked the BDBL universe in Chapter Five, matching the Joplin Miners with a league-best record of 22-6. In doing so, they made up five games on the first-place South Loop Furies, and now have a shot at winning the division for the first time since 2015 (and only the third time in franchise history.) How the hell did this happen? Let's take a look at some numbers:

As you can see, Vegas saw improvement across the board in Chapter Five, both offensively and defensively. Their defense ranked dead-last in opponent's BIP rate in the first five chapters, but they ranked #1 in that category last chapter. They went just 21-31 on the road prior to Chapter Five, but went a perfect 12-0 in away games last chapter. Their ERA ranked dead-last in the OL prior to last chapter, but improved to 3.91 in Chapter Five.

Certainly part of the credit for the team's offensive improvement goes to Votto (as mentioned above.) He was hardly the only major contributor, however. Scooter Gennett (.372/.398/.692) had a monster chapter, as did Trey Mancini (.355/.392/.627) and Welington Castillo (.344/.437/.623). Backup catcher Robinson Chirinos (.250/.358/.636) pitched in with five home runs. Andrew McCutchen (.269/.347/.500) added six. Francisco Lindor (.288/.348/.568, 7 HR) also continued his stellar season. Even part-time players Adam Eaton (.467/.500/.667 in 15 AB) and Andrew Romine (.421/.450/.526 in 19 AB) contributed insane numbers in a short sample.

Defensively, the upgrade from Mark Reynolds (Fr) to Votto (Vg) may have contributed to the team's improved defensive metrics. There is no explanation, however, for the improved pitching performance as a team. Along with Votto, the Flamingos received reliever Mike Minor. Minor pitched 13+ innings and posted a 4.05 ERA. He saved two games, but was also credited with two of the team's six losses. Credit for the improved pitching lies mostly with a handful of incredibly unlikely relief heroes such as Ryan Pressly, Craig Stammen, and Gregory Infante. Pressly (4.70 ERA in MLB) posted a mind-boggling 1.84 ERA in over 14 innings last chapter, and went 4-0 in relief. Stammen (3.14 in MLB) posted a 1.50 ERA in 12 innings. Infante (3.13) also vultured a win in relief, and also posted a sub-2.00 ERA in nine-plus innings.

Given that the team's perfect 7-0 record in one-run games is highly unlikely to be repeated, nor is their perfect 12-0 road record likely to see a repeat, and given the out-of-nowhere performance by their pitching staff in Chapter Five, it's easy to dismiss this team's performance as a fluke. Fluke or not, it happened. It's now a part of the permanent record. Because of that, the Las Vegas Flamingos have a valid chance to capture a spot in the BDBL postseason. Who saw that coming?

Story #2: Team Not-So-Meh

One chapter ago, the Eck League wild card race looked rather boring. Great Lakes led the race by three games over Saskatoon, and five games over the .500 Akron Ryche. Given their history, and the fact that their lead was expanding at that point, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Great Lakes would win the wild card. Then Akron (a.k.a. "Team Meh") stepped it up a notch.

Last chapter, both Great Lakes and Saskatoon went just 14-14 while Team Meh went an astounding 19-9 to completely close the gap in the EL wild card race. Like the rise of the Flamingos in the OL, this sudden surge seemed to take everyone by surprise -- including Akron GM D.J. Sheppard.

Akron's Chapter Five runs differential of 57 was second only to the Charlotte Mustangs in the EL. Like Vegas, the Ryche excelled (12-4) on the road. Unlike Vegas, Akron went just 6-5 in one-run games, indicating that their success was not the result of timely luck. If not luck, then what? Like Vegas, Akron's success can't be pinpointed in one or two areas. It was a team-wide hot streak.

On the pitching side, Mike Clevinger has been all-but-useless for most of the first four chapters. Heading into Chapter Five, he had posted a 6-4 record and a 4.78 ERA in 84+ innings. In Chapter Five, he was a completely different pitcher. He went a perfect 4-0, posted a 1.34 ERA, allowed only 23 hits in 40+ innings, and yielded just one home run the entire chapter.

Robbie Ray also went 4-0 on the chapter, and posted a 2.08 ERA in 30+ innings. Someone named Jackson Stephens (who has since been released) went 3-0 in relief, posted a 2.20 ERA in 16+ innings, allowing just nine hits. Alex Meyer tossed 12+ innings of relief, allowing just two earned runs (an ERA of 1.42).

Offensively, the team revolved around two unlikely rookie overachievers: Josh Bell (.351/.414/.605) and Orlando Arcia (.357/.400/.531). The two combined for 50.4 runs created in the chapter, or nearly one-third of the team's total.

Great Lakes' Chapter Five collapse can be laid at the feet of their starting pitching. Martin Perez, Mike Fiers, Trevor Bauer, and C.C. Sabathia started 19 of the team's 28 games in Chapter Five and combined for an ERA of 7.24. Sabathia (9.26 ERA) was particularly wretched.

Like Vegas, it seems that Akron's spectacular Chapter Five was a bit of a fluke, and unlikely to be repeated. But as with Vegas, Akron is now in a position to capitalize on that fluke and return to the postseason. For Team Meh, it would be their first postseason appearance since 2013, and only their second since 2007.

Story #3: How the McGowan Race Ended

A week before the chapter ended, the Salem Cowtippers were still knocking on the door of the McGowan Division title. Salem trailed the division-leading Joplin Miners by just three games. With three series remaining for each team, I figured I could take three of four from both the Myrtle Beach Hitmen and Granite State Lightning (a not-unreasonable expectation.) That would have cut the division lead to just one game. Then our head-to-head showdown with Joplin would either make or break us.

It sounded good at the time, but my dream of our first division title since the Bush administration vanished in a snap. Due to unforeseen circumstances, all six of those final series were played via MP. I split my series with Myrtle Beach, but took all four games against the Lightning. Then came the head-to-head series against Joplin. It was the stuff of nightmares.

The vaunted Salem offense simply forgot to show up for that series. The Cowtippers scored just six runs in those four games, and one or fewer runs in three of the four. We hit .150/.221/.242 for the series, with only two home runs and seven extra-base hits. We managed just eight walks and struck out 33 times.

Meanwhile, Joplin not only won all four of those games, but they swept their final two opponents as well. Twelve wins (at least) in a row. A 22-win chapter. Just like that, their three-game division lead grew to nine. Race over.

Joplin's 83 wins are already a career record-high for Jim Doyle. He is now assured of finishing above .500 for the first time in his 19-year BDBL career. The Miners are on pace to win 100 games, which would be the SEVENTH YEAR IN A ROW for this franchise. A division title would be their EIGHTH in a row.

If the season were to end today, the Miners would face the Kansas City Boulevards in the OLDS. Joplin and KC square off for four games in Chapter Six, which should provide a fun preview for those of us on the outside looking in.