March, 2020

2020 BDBL Farm Report

It's that time of year again. Time to either brag about how awesome your farm system is or claim that this report isn't clearly reflective of its true awesomeness. This year's panel of experts is the same as last year: Baseball America, MLB.com, and FanGraphs. Below you'll find the numbers for all teams, compiled by assigning point totals to the rankings from each of those sources. (100 points for a #1 ranking, 99 points for #2, etc.)

Of course, something draws your eye right away: that point total from the Myrtle Beach Hitmen looks as though it must be a miscalculation. Do the Hitmen really have twice as many points as the next-best team in the league? Well, yes. Yes they do. In fact, the Hitmen own a higher percentage of total points than any other team in (recorded) league history:

As you can see, the Hitmen are in good company. St. Louis won the BDBL championship in 2018 after owning 14% of more of all the points in this farm report for three years in a row. Los Altos won the championship three years in a row, from 2015-2017, after owning 13% or more of all the farm report points in 2012 and 2013. Marlboro (now South Loop) won two division titles in 2012 and 2014 after leading the Farm Report in 2008-09. Chicago won division titles in 2012 and 2014 after owning just 9% of the total farm points in 2010. And, of course, Los Altos won their first of many BDBL championships in 2009 after leading the Farm Report with 12-13% of all farm points in 2006-07.

NOTE: Of course, just as I was about to publish this report, Brian Potrafka and Jim Doyle pulled off a monster 13-player trade that completely changes the numbers above. That trade adds 171 points to Joplin's total, which brings their total to 669. That brings them to #11 in this ranking. Ravenswood's total drops to 58, which puts them at #23. Rather than rewrite this entire article, I'll simply state that this report is accurate as of Opening Day, 2020.

#1 Myrtle Beach Hitmen
Ranked prospects: Jo Adell (4), MacKenzie Gore (5), Joey Bart (16), Carter Kieboom (17), Forrest Whitley (20), Dylan Carlson (22), Andrew Vaughn (26), Alex Bohm (33), Tarik Skubal (42), Kristian Robinson (48), Nolan Jones (49), Nick Lodolo (71), Geraldo Perdomo (82), Corbin Carroll (100)
Unranked prospects: Cristian Hernandez, Adbert Alzolay

Fourteen Hitmen prospects rank among the top-100 in baseball. Only the 2014 St. Louis Apostles, with 16, topped that mark. No other franchise in league history owned more than a dozen top-100 prospects. Myrtle Beach owns six top-25 prospects (seven if you want to expand it to 26.) As far as I can tell, only the 2012 Los Altos Undertakers, with seven top-25 prospects, have come close to matching that figure. (Note: among those seven for Los Altos were Nolan Arenado, Gerritt Cole, Julio Teheran, and Jameson Taillon.)

The quantity of top prospects is impressive, but so is the quality. Adell is a five-tool star-in-the-making. Just 20 years old, he has barely scratched the surface of his immense talent. Gore is the highest-ranked pitching prospect in this report. He is as much of a lock to become a #1 starter as any pitching prospect in the game. His swing-and-miss numbers are off the charts, and it doesn't seem as though any level of competition is a challenge for him. Bart was ranked as high as #10 (FanGraphs) and as low as #32 (BA.) Baseball America's knock on him seems to be a pair of hand injuries he suffered in 2019, plus a "hole in his swing" that he will need to fix before he can become a big league star.

Baseball America and FanGraphs had the opposite opinions of Dylan Carlson, who was ranked #10 by BA and #39 by FanGraphs. Skubal, the #1 overall pick in this winter's farm draft, is also the top-ranked player selected in that draft. The Hitmen managed to nab two top-100 prospects in the first round of that draft, with Perdomo being the other. As if all of these top-100 prospects weren't enough, Myrtle Beach also owns the top (or possibly top) Latin American (J2) prospect, Cristian Hernandez.

#2 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Jesus Luzardo (8), Casey Mize (11), C.J. Abrams (23), Vidal Brujan (35), Sean Murphy (43), Taylor Trammell (63), Xavier Edwards (76)
Unranked prospects: Gabriel Arias, Hudson Head, Elehuris Montero, Andy Pages, Gabriel Rodriguez, Jhon Torres, Mark Vientos, Meibrys Viloria, Jon Duplantier, Blake Watson

Welcome to a new highest-ranking ever for the Kansas Law Dogs franchise. They traded Royce Lewis (#6 last year, #14 this year) for Abrams (#23), and yet still rank at the top of this survey. As I wrote in the Season Preview, the Law Dogs have a potentially dominant starting rotation in the making, with Luzardo and Mize soon joining Jacob deGrom, Luis Severino, and Cal Quantrill. Luzardo and Mize have the potential to become a devastating lefty/righty combo at the top of the Kansas rotation, although Mize has some injury questions to answer in 2020.

Abrams transitioned to pro ball about as well as any prep player ever could, with a .393 batting average and 1.083 OPS in 150 at-bats. He could easily shoot up this list and be a top-10 prospect a year from now. He and Brujan could become a formidable duo in the middle of the Kansas infield three or four years from now. Of the unranked group, keep on eye on Pages. He looks like a classic right field power hitter, with tons of homers and strikeouts, but with the potential to become more of a pure hitter.

#3 Darien Blue Wave
Ranked prospects: Matt Manning (15), Marco Luciano (25), J.J. Bleday (36), Riley Greene (41), Logan Gilbert (47), Oneil Cruz (50), Jeter Downs (56), Adrian Morejon (111), Noelvi Marte (114), Seth Corry (121)
Unranked prospects: Patrick Bailey, Jeremiah Jackson, Matthew Allan, Emerson Hancock, Ryan Weathers, Cole Winn

Well, well, well! This is quite a sight to see! The last time this franchise ranked this high in the Farm Report was...(checking my notes)...never! Darien has ranked among the top ten only twice before, and the last time (way back in 2012) they barely eked in at #9. This is rarified air for a franchise that has averaged a ranking of #16, historically.

Darien's number one prospect, Manning, looks like he was sent straight from Central Casting for the role of #2 starter. He's 6-foot-6, right-handed, has a power fastball, three "plus" pitches, and with good control and command. Basically, he's everything you'd want in a pitching prospect. He seems to lack that one, devastating, "out" pitch, but there's nothing wrong with being a #2 guy. Some pitchers have actually earned a place in Cooperstown with #2 stuff.

Luciano is the guy that I believe has the best chance to be a top-ten prospect a year from now. He's only 18 years old, but his potential is off the charts. I would say he has the best chance of anyone to become the next Wander F'ing Franco. And Doyle traded him for Yan Gomes?? Hey, I can relate. I traded Franco for half a season of Max Kepler.

GM Lee Scholtz received some grief for his trade involving Bleday, but at least he received a top-40 prospect from that deal. Bleday reminds me a little of Andrew Benintendi, which can either be a good or bad thing, depending on whether or not Benny bounces back this year. Downs, a Cowtippers discard, was the #2 overall pick in this winter's farm draft. He received a boost in status by being included in the epic Mookie Betts MLB deal. If everything pans out as planned, he could become a modern-day Ray Durham. Corry doesn't get a lot of press, but had a tremendous breakthrough season in 2019. Of the unranked group, Hancock could be the #1 pick this coming June, and should be a top-50 prospect the moment he signs.

#4 Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Wander F'ing Franco (1), Christian Pache (12), Bobby Witt (17), Jasson Dominguez (46), Jesus Sanchez (77), Ezequiel Duran (109)
Unranked prospects: Lewin Diaz, Austin Hendrick, Ronaldo Hernandez, Andruw Jones, Khalil Lee, Freudis Nova, Tirso Ornelas, Esteury Ruiz, Jordan Walker

Wander F'ing Franco is Alex Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Superman, all rolled into one. He was sent here from a distant planet to show us all how baseball is supposed to be played. Whatever. I'm over it.

It's almost obscene that one team owns so many players with such high ceilings. As if owning the current #1 overall prospect, plus three former #1-overall prospects (Jurickson Profar, Vladimir Guerrero, and Byron Buxton) weren't enough, the Locks own two more prospects (Witt and Dominguez) who could very well be the #1-overall prospects a year or two from now. How did we let this happen?

Dominguez was ranked as high as #38 (by BA) despite the fact that he hasn't yet taken a single swing as a professional. If his scouting reports are accurate, it will be a shock if he doesn't rank among the top ten a year from now. Witt was ranked among the top-10 (#10) by MLB.com after only 37 games as a professional. He has enough upside to leap to the top of this ranking a year from now.

As if that weren't enough, the unranked Hendrick could be the first prep player selected in June's MLB amateur draft. Pache will shortly reach the big leagues on his glove alone. He has enough bat to stick. The one thing you'll notice missing from this list above is a pitcher. There is not a single pitcher on the Niagara farm. That is a problem if this franchise ever hopes to capture a division title.

#5 Southern California Slyme
Ranked prospects: Luis Robert (3), Jarred Kelenic (9), Brendon Rodgers (26), Edward Cabrera (73), George Valera (107), Brett Baty (115)
Unranked prospects: Seth Beer, Estevan Florial, Nick Gonzales, Monte Harrison, Luke Leto, Brice Turang, Jay Groome, Kyle Muller, Cole Wilcox

The Slyme have now owned a top-ten farm system five years in a row, and nine times in the past ten years. This is the first time, however, that they have owned two top-ten prospects in the same year. Robert, acquired from the Apostles a year ago in the Zach Cozart trade, looks like a perennial all-star at this point. All he did in the minor leagues last year was post a 1.000 OPS and become the youngest 30-30 player since 1999. (Anyone remember Chin-Feng Chen?) As if having one 20-20 player on the farm club weren't enough, the Slyme had two, thanks to Kelenic.

Rodgers saw his star dim a bit in 2019, thanks to a poor MLB performance in a small sample (76 AB's), plus a torn labrum that ended his season in July. He should be back on track to start the 2020 season. Valera was everyone's pick to vault into the top-50 a year ago, but he stumbled big-time last year, hitting just .236 in the short-season Penn League, and .087 (2-for-23) in a short stint in Low-A ball. He certainly has the ability to bounce back in 2020, just as Robert did last year. Wilcox needs to bounce back as well, in order to regain his status as a top 2020 college prospect. Gonzales is on a short list to be the #1 overall pick in June's MLB amateur draft.

#6 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Gavin Lux (2), Nolan Gorman (45), Jordan Groshans (58), D.L. Hall (65), Travis Swaggerty (92), Shea Langeliers (94), Tyler Stephenson (97)
Unranked prospects: Ed Howard, Jorge Mateo, Connor Scott, Tyler Soderstrom, Chase Strumpf, Jared Kelley, Nate Savino

The Gill family owns three of the top five prospects in baseball, and twenty-one of the top-100. Lux is the highest-ranked Black Sox prospect since Evan Longoria (#2 in 2008.) He shot all the way up to #2 from #39 a year ago, after a season in which he hit .347/.421/.607 with 26 homers between Double-A and Triple-A. He has the tools and potential to become a Chase Utley type of player, or perhaps even a left-handed version of Ryne Gill's namesake.

Opinions varied widely on Groshans, who ranked as high as #29 by Baseball America, and as low as #80 by FanGraphs. He missed nearly the entire season last year because of a foot injury, so that may be a factor. If he can stay healthy, he may vault into the top-30 by the time next year's Farm Report is posted. Gorman gives Chicago three of the top infield prospects in baseball. He projects to be a high-strikeout, power-hitting, third baseman.

Of the unranked group, both Howard and Kelley are both projected to be first-round picks in June's draft. Kelley could be the first prep pitcher selected.

#7 Saskatoon Sasquatch
Ranked prospects: Nate Pearson (7), Alex Kirilloff (34), Matthew Liberatore (61), Kyle Wright (70), Josiah Gray (72), Shane McClanahan (106)
Unranked prospects: Yusniel Diaz, Lucius Fox, Nick Gordon, Gilberto Jimenez, Jahmai Jones, Bayron Lora, Erick Pena, Brayan Rocchio, Jackson Rutledge, Justus Sheffield

'Squatch fans don't have much reason to be excited about the 2020 season, but they should be very excited about a future that includes Pearson. "80" grades on fastballs aren't handed out often, but it's especially rare when that fastball can be located and controlled with pinpoint accuracy, as Pearson seems capable of doing. He regularly hits triple-digits on the radar gun, and famously touched 104 in the AFL a couple years ago. He is as much of a lock to be a #1 starter as any pitching prospect can be.

Kirilloff is one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues, but he can't seem to stay healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. He isn't likely to ever hit 30 home runs in a season, but he should be good for 20, with an OPS around .800 in his prime. Of the four other ranked pitching prospects, Gray seems most exciting. He came out of nowhere last year to post a 2.28 ERA over three minor league levels, with 147 K's in 130 innings. He could vault up this list over the next year, assuming he remains eligible. Wright struggled big-time in his brief MLB debut last year, and now looks more like a mid-rotation starter than the frontline starter many thought he would be out of college. Liberatore's numbers put me to sleep.

The unranked group is a very sad group, indeed. It is filled with names of prospects who were once ranked in this Farm Report, but have since fallen off every list. The exceptions are Pena and Lora, who are 16-year-old lottery tickets who have yet to record a professional at-bat.

#8 Kansas City Boulevards
Ranked prospects: Sixto Sanchez (28), Mitch Keller (36), Daniel Lynch (54), Hunter Greene (67), Brusdar Graterol (81), Brady Singer (88)
Unranked prospects: Keoni Cavaco, Kyle Isbel, M.J. Melendez, Tyler Dyson, Alex Faedo, Levi Kelly, Eric Pardinho

This is only the fourth time this franchise has ranked among the top ten in the annual Farm Report. If not for last year's trade of Christian Yelich, which netted Sanchez, that number would still be three. Sanchez has everything you look for in a pitching prospect: a fastball that touches triple-digits, good command, at least three above-average pitches, and the ability to induce ground balls. All that is missing is durability. His 114 innings pitched in 2019 is his career high.

Although he is ranked lower, Keller has the potential to be better than Sanchez. He just needs to get his stuff under control. Lynch was ranked as high as #39 (BA) and as low as #72 (FanGraphs.) His 2019 season was derailed by a minor arm injury, but he finished strong, including an impressive performance in the Arizona Fall League. Greene probably has more talent than any of the other KC pitching prospects, but he has to prove he can stay healthy after missing all of last year. I refuse to take Brusdar Graterol seriously because I just can't believe someone with a name like that can ever become a Major League ballplayer. Then again, I couldn't believe someone named Barack Hussein Obama could ever become president, so what do I know?

#9 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Adley Rutschman (5), Spencer Howard (29), Nick Madrigal (40), Jackson Kowar (101)
Unranked prospects: Austin Martin, Casey Martin, Garrett Mitchell, Alexander Mojica, Luis Rodriguez, Tanner Burns, Garrett Crochet, Enyel de los Santos, J.T. Ginn, Kwang-Hyun Kim, Asa Lacy, Carmen Mlodzinski

The Cowtippers barely squeeze into the top ten for the first time since 2016. The hope is that Rutschman finally fills the role of "franchise catcher" that we've been trying to fill since taking Ben Davis in the Inaugural Draft of '99. Howard wins the award for the "Most Wanted Cowtipper of Winter, 2020." If trade inquiries are a reliable indicator of future success, his future is very bright. Madrigal needs to hurry up and become the Next Dustin Pedroia, because we need a second baseman. Kowar seems destined for the bullpen, but that's okay.

As usual, the Salem franchise gets screwed by this process because many of our best prospects aren't eligible to be ranked. Austin Martin will likely be at least a top-30 prospect the moment he signs. Likewise, Lacy and Mitchell should be top-100-worthy. Within the next year, look for Rodriguez to make a move up into the legion of the ranked.

#10 Charlotte Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Julio Rodriguez (10), Ke'Bryan Hayes (39), Daulton Varsho (60), Francisco Alvarez (75), Tyler Freeman (86)
Unranked prospects: Maximo Acosta, George Feliz, Miguel Vargas, Anderson Espinoza, Jack Kochanowicz, Bryan Mata, Patrick Sandoval, Matt Tabor

The award for Most Consistent Farm Ranking Ever goes to...Charlotte! They have now ranked #10 an astounding FOUR years in a row! That ain't easy, folks. The funny thing about those 16-year-olds from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela is that most of the time they become the next Angel Villalona, Jackson Melian, Wily Mo Pena, or Adrian Rondon. But every once in a while, a Latin American lottery ticket pays huge dividends and you end up with a Julio Rodriguez. Rodriguez ("JuRo?") has essentially the same scouting report, and same career trajectory, as Eloy Jimenez.

It seems as though Tony Chamra has drafted and released Hayes multiple times over the past few years. Hayes is widely regarded as the best defensive third baseman in the minor leagues. He only needs his bat to catch up to his glove. Last year seemed like a regression. Varsho is an odd duck: a catching prospect who nearly had a 20-20 season last year. Alvarez played the entire season at age 17 last year, yet held his own against much older competition. Freeman is an excellent contact hitter, but doesn't appear to have much power potential, and is merely average in all other facets of the game.

#11 Allentown Ridgebacks
Ranked prospects: Michael Kopech (24), Trevor Larnach (57), Triston Casas (66), Keibert Ruiz (79), Hunter Bishop (95), Jose Garcia (105), Bryson Stott (110)
Unranked prospects: Korey Lee, Calvin Mitchell, Kendall Simmons, Spencer Torkelson, Hunter Barco, Dane Dunning, Noah Song

From 2001-2013, when Tom DiStefano was the GM of the first iteration of the Allentown Ridgebacks, the Ridgebacks farm averaged a ranking of 9.7 in this annual report. Of course, this current version of the Allentown farm was built almost entirely by Greg Newgard. Tom has yet to make a trade since his rise from the wreckage of the Death Star, and drafted only three farm players this past winter: Garcia, Simmons, and Song. Although Kopech is officially this team's top prospect, a good argument could be made that Torkelson is actually number one. He could very well be the #1 overall prospect selected in the upcoming MLB amateur draft.

I've never been a big Kopech fan. He throws hard. Very hard. But that's about it. He doesn't seem to have any idea where his pitch is going once it leaves his hand. He missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery, so maybe Kopech 2.0 will have a little more control. Larnach was ranked as high as #45 (BA) and as low as #81 (MLB). He looks like he will be at least an average MLB corner outfielder. Former Cowtipper Casas has the potential to shoot up this list over the next twelve months. He reminds me of a young Freddie Freeman.

#12 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Dustin May (17), Luis Campusano (53), Evan White (55)
Unranked prospects: Luisangel Acuna, Sherten Apostel, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Tetsuto Yamada, Kohei Arihara, Genesis Cabrera, James Karinchak, Takahiro Norimoto, Zack Thompson

Once upon a time, Jeff Paulson cornered the market on 15- and 16-year-old high school kids. Today, he's cornered the market on Japanese guys. When the league zigs, Paulson zags. It will take several years before we can evaluate how effective a strategy it has been to load up on NPB players. Until then, we can only judge the Undertakers farm for the players who are already paying US income taxes.

That includes May, who will likely become the next Garrett Cole, based on Paulson's track record. He may not be eligible for next year's Farm Report, as he could graduate early from the minor leagues. That would leave Campusano and White as the only two remaining ranked players on the Los Altos farm. Campusano posted some very impressive numbers in the California League last year, with a .900+ OPS and nearly as many walks (52) as strikeouts (57). White has been called the best defensive first baseman in the minors, and showed enough at the plate to stick.

#13 Joplin Miners
Ranked prospects: Royce Lewis (14), Ian Anderson (36), Clarke Schmidt (84), Orelvis Martinez (111), George Kirby (122)
Unranked prospects: Shogo Akiyama, Yiddi Cappe, Mason Denaburg, Ryan Jeffers, Kameron Misner, Misael Urbina, Bryan Abreu, Richard Gallardo, Sandy Gaston, Quinn Priester, Ryan Rollison

Lewis is one of those prospects whose performance doesn't match his scouting reports. He hit a yawn-inducing .236/.290/.371 at two levels last year, with just 12 homers, 22 stolen bases, and an awful 38/128 BB/K ratio. Yet, he was ranked as high as #9 (by MLB.com) and only as low as #26 (BA). What gives? For starters, being the #1 overall pick in the MLB draft seems to give prospects a few extra places in the rankings. Second, he was young (20) for his competition level (High-A and Double-A) last year. Third, he redeemed himself somewhat by his performance in the AFL.

Lewis and Anderson were Joplin's compensation for Charlie Morton and Freddie Freeman this winter (along with taking Charlie Blackmon's salary.) That, and the acquisition of Sean Newcomb, has been the extent of Joplin's rebuilding effort so far. Anderson has the stuff to be successful, but has to get his walks under control before he can take the next step forward.

That unranked group is such a motley crew of misfits, I don't know what to make of it. Akiyama is a 31-year-old known mostly for his defense in Japan. He reminds me of So Taguchi, who was hardly a memorable MLB player. Cappe is a 17-year-old Cuban shortstop who has been compared to Gunnar Henderson (whoever the hell that is!) Maybe there are some diamonds in this pile of rough, but I'll be damned if I can see them.

NOTE: The recent additions of Simeon Woods Richardson (#78), Brent Honeywell (#79), and Miguel Amaya (#88) from the Ravenswood Infidels gives Joplin a total of six top-100 prospects. For commentary on those new guys, see the Ravenswood write-up.

#14 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Nico Hoerner (44), Ronny Mauricio (52), Jordan Balazovic (85), Shane Baz (90), Luis Garcia (97), Tahnaj Thomas (101)
Unranked prospects: Alexander Canario, Heriberto Hernandez, Daniel Johnson, Mason Martin, Keithron Moss, Edward Olivares, Lolo Sanchez, Braden Shewmake, Pavin Smith, Michael Toglia

Hoerner will probably never hit for power, but he could fill a valuable utility role similar to Ben Zobrist or Tommy La Stella. Mauricio achieved the highest ranking of any Sea Cat at #35 by FanGraphs. He posted an OPS of only .665 last year, but was among the youngest players in the league. At this point, he's 100-percent potential. Balazovic had a breakout 2019 season in which he posted a 2.69 ERA at two A-ball levels, with a 25/129 BB/K ratio in 93+ innings. I hate to say that he reminds me of Adam Johnson, and yet he does. Sorry, Jordan.

The Sea Cats farm club used to rank among the top-ten every year, but has now ranked among the bottom half of the league four years in a row. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: the Sea Cats need a shake-up!

#15 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Brendan McKay (13), Brandon Marsh (51)
Unranked prospects: Blaze Alexander, Ha-Seong Kim, Luis Matos, Brent Rooker, Leodys Taveras, Bubba Thompson, Ryan Vilade, Mick Abel, Francisco Morales, Carter Stewart, Shun Yamaguchi

It was fun while it lasted. After years and years of placing near the bottom of the league in this survey, Cleveland's farm system enjoyed a top-ten ranking two years in a row in 2018 and 2019. Now, here they are, back in the bottom half. Ah, well. When Gleyber Torres, Nick Senzel, and Mike Soroka all graduated to the big leagues, there was no Second Wave waiting to take their place in Cleveland. What we're left with is a Brendan, a Brandon, and a bunch of Blasts from Prospects Past. (Seriously, who knew that Brent Rooker was still a prospect?)

McKay was consistently ranked by all three experts, from #14 (BA) to #17 (FanGraphs). A much-heralded "two-way player", he didn't do much at the plate last year (.200/.298/.331 in 145 AB), but excelled on the mound (although he was beat up at the MLB level.) His career minor league numbers (172 IP, 107 H, 9 HR, 37 BB, 226 K, 1.78 ERA) suggest that he will be at least a solid #2/#3 starter. Anything he adds with his bat is sprinkles on top of the ice cream. Marsh is an athletic, five-tool, outfielder who should be an asset once he reaches the big leagues -- which should be soon, given his strong AFL performance last fall.

Of the unranked pile, Yamaguchi looks most intriguing to me. Despite being mostly a starting pitcher in Japan most recently, it was assumed that he would land in the bullpen after signing with the Blue Jays. Early talk in spring training is that he may win the competition for a spot in the rotation. A lot can happen between now and Opening Day; however, it seems as though he could be an asset for the 2021 Rocks one way or another.

#16 St. Louis Apostles
Ranked prospects: Luis Patino (21), Jazz Chisholm (59)
Unranked prospects: Daz Cameron, Oscar Colas, Brady House, Blaze Jordan, Seuly Matias, Mickey Moniak, Robert Puason, Yuki Yanagita, Michel Baez, Triston McKenzie, Adonis Medina, Franklin Perez, Kodai Senga, Tomoyuki Sugano

It is jarring to see the Apostles farm system ranked this low. This was a top-five farm system for the past seven years in a row, and a top-ten farm system for the past nine years in a row. The last time St. Louis ranked this low, Wilmer Flores (at #90) was their top prospect, and Alfredo Despaigne, Christian Lopes, and Jeff Malm were still considered prospects. Of course, that same year, Mike Minor and Drew Pomeranz were among the unranked Apostles prospects who turned out to be pretty useful. The same may apply to this year's farm.

Patino was everyone's choice to climb up the prospect ranking after his breakthrough 2018 season. Sure enough, that's what he did. He went from #49 a year ago to #21 today after posting a 2.69 ERA in the hitter-friendly California League despite being the league's youngest pitcher on Opening Day. He could very well make another leap up this ranking over the next year. Chisholm was ranked as high as #33 (FanGraphs) and as low as #88 (Baseball America.) He hit just .220 overall last year, but with 21 homers, 16 steals, and 52 walks in 395 at-bats.

Bobby Sylvester loves taking gambles on huge-risk/huge-reward teenagers and foreigners. That unranked group is almost entirely comprised of those types of prospects. Puason was ranked the #2 "J2" prospect by FanGraphs and MLB.com last year, behind only Jasson Dominguez. Colas is Bobby's latest in a long line of Cuban defectors, joining the likes of Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig, Luis Robert, and Lazaro Armenteros. House is only a high school junior, and is ranked near the top of the 2021 MLB draft list. Jordan became famous on YouTube for hitting 450-foot homers as a 14-year-old. He's now a borderline first-rounder for 2020. Senga and Sugano are among the best pitchers in Japan, but neither is likely to come to the US for at least another three or four years.

#17 North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs
Ranked prospects: A.J. Puk (32), Alek Thomas (67), Sam Huff (96), Andres Gimenez (107), Diego Cartaya (117)
Unranked prospects: Jonathan India, Victor^2 Mesa, Cal Raleigh, Anthony Seigler, Mike Siani, J.B. Bukauskas, Joey Cantillo, Kyle Glogoski, Ethan Hankins, Tanner Houck, Ethan Lindow

There is an old scouting cliche that the guys on my local sports talk station like to repeat whenever asked to give a scouting report on some young stud pitching prospect. It begins with: "He's tall...he's left-handed...he throws hard..." That pretty much describes A.J. Puk. He could become the next Madison Bumgarner or the next Daniel Norris. Who's to say? Thomas isn't tall, and doesn't throw hard, but he's left-handed. He's been compared to Andrew Benintendi, which seems about right -- minus the college track record, of course.

Huff had an interesting season in 2019. He smashed 28 home runs in only 475 at-bats, in two A-ball leagues that are considered to be pitcher's leagues. Yet, Ian was able to snag him in the second round of January's farm draft. Cartaya was one of the top 2019 J2's, with a sky-high ceiling and sky-high odds of reaching that ceiling. Gimenez is the new Amed Rosario, who was the new Wilmer Flores.

I'm surprised to see India and Victor^2 not receive a single ranking. I was also surprised to see Bukauskas didn't receive a single ranking...until I looked into his numbers.

#18 Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Grayson Rodriguez (30), Heliot Ramos (62), Jordyn Adams (103)
Unranked prospects: Austin Beck, Kody Hoese, Tristen Lutz, Bo Naylor, Ronnier Quintero, Cole Roederer, Anthony Volpe, Hans Crouse, Braxton Garrett, Jack Leiter

Last year, I called the Vegas farm system the "Team Muh" of the minor leagues. That farm team's number one prospect was some guy named Pete Alonso. Oops. To be fair, he only ranked #44, which proves I wasn't the only one who swung and missed on him.

The only team that needs a frontline starting pitching prospect more than the Flamingos is the Baltimore Orioles. Let's all hope, for the sake of Flamingos and Orioles fans alike, that Grayson reaches his lofty potential. I see Heliot Ramos and I can't help but think: Melky Cabrera. Ramos swings only from the right side, but otherwise, they seem like the same player to me -- which wouldn't be a bad thing from Vegas' perspective. Adams is one of those guys with 80 speed who teams draft in order to coach him into something more than just a runner. We'll see how that goes.

I look at this unranked group and think: "I can't believe we had to spend the time to manually enter these guys onto the disk and assign them to a roster." If even one of these guys makes it to the big leagues, it would be a miracle. Of the group, Leiter has the best chance, but given that he's only a junior in high school, we have a long time to wait for that to happen.

#19 South Loop Furies
Ranked prospects: Drew Waters (31), Jose Lowe (90)
Unranked prospects: Bryan Acuna, Lazaro Armenteros, Yu Chang, Jarren Duran, Julio Pablo Martinez, Corey Ray, Michael Baumann, Zack Brown, Tucker Davidson, Ethan Small, Patrick Weigel, Joey Wentz

On the downside, Waters struck out 164 times in 134 games last year, and managed to hit only seven home runs. On the plus side, he was young for the league (age 20), he hit 40 doubles and 9 triples, and there are plenty of reasons to believe he will improve with experience. Lowe hit 18 homers and swiped 30 bases at the age of 21 in Double-A ball last year, yet he only managed to get some love from one of our three sources (FanGraphs), which ranked him #60.

Bryan Acuna is only fourteen years old. C'mon, man. I literally own underwear older than he is. I'm pretty sure he's the youngest player ever drafted in the BDBL, but honestly, it's too ridiculous to even check. Armenteros is the troublemaker who sent Nic Weiss packing years ago. All these years later, you have to wonder what all the fuss was about. Duran looked like the breakthrough candidate of the year halfway through the 2019 season, but then stumbled a bit when he reached Double-A. Baumann was ranked the #15 prospect in the Eastern League last year, and posted some impressive numbers. Not impressive enough for our panel of experts, evidently.

#20 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Simeon Woods Richardson (78), Brent Honeywell (79), Josh Jung (83), Miguel Amaya (88), Liover Peguero (119), Isaac Paredes (122)
Unranked prospects: Michael Busch, Will Wilson, Kris Bubic, Daniel Espino, Luis Frias, Brennan Malone, Alek Manoah

Woods-Richardson (who I'll abbreviate as SWR from now on, because his name is just too damn long) and Peguero were Brian Potrafka's first two selections in this winter's farm draft. SWR and Honeywell were the only Ravenswood prospects ranked by all three sources, but oddly enough, Jung achieved the highest ranking of any of them, at #55 by MLB.com. SWR has good command, and three "plus" pitches, but is a long way from the big leagues. It seems like Honeywell has been a prospect forever. He was drafted all the way back in 2014, and has now missed two seasons due to Tommy John surgery in 2018 and an elbow fracture last year. Despite missing two full seasons, he's still ranked among the top-100, which shows how highly-regarded he is.

Jung was a top-ten pick in the 2019 MLB draft, following an impressive college career. He should move quickly up the ladder. When he gets to the top, he will hit for average and power and flash an above-average glove at the hot corner. Peguero is an 18-year-old shortstop who may develop five-tool talent down the road, but it's a very long and winding road ahead for him. The same goes for Amaya, who played all of last season as a 20-year-old at the High-A level. That road is a little shorter for Paredes, who also played all of last season as a 20-year-old, but at the Double-A level.

NOTE: The Joplin trade removes SWR, Honeywell, and Amaya from that list above, as noted at the beginning of this report. That leaves Jung as Ravenswood's top prospect -- and only top-100 prospect.

#21 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Brailyn Marquez (67), Brennan Davis (74), Bobby Dalbec (99)
Unranked prospects: Aramis Ademan, Jose Devers, Reivaj Garcia, Greg Jones, Eddy Julio Martinez, Owen Miller, Zack Short, Brendon Little, Trevor Rogers, Justin Steele, Mitchell White

You may not believe a ranking of #21 is a big deal, but trust me, this is major. You see, not only have the Sphinx ranked at the very bottom of this survey for the past three years in a row, but they haven't even had ONE ranked prospect in any of those three years! This year, they have three! I'm telling you, this is huge.

The Sphinx farm club has now ranked among the bottom-five six years in a row. How that Great Lakes farm director has kept his job for so long is an enduring mystery. Davis is the only Sphinx prospect that was ranked by all three sources. Marquez received the highest ranking at #37 by Baseball America. Left-handers with an "80" fastball, who top out at around 102 mph, don't come around that often. Given that, you'd think Marquez would rank a bit higher. The problem is that Marquez only has a fastball. His breaking pitches are "works in progress." As a result, right-handers tend to tee off on him. Unless he can develop another pitch, and unless he can cut his walk rate significantly, it seems as though he's destined to become a LOOGY.

Davis is a five-tool athlete who is more potential than actual at this point. He's a long way from contributing in the BDBL, but could become a real asset if all the stars align. With the state of the Red Sox as it is, Dalbec will probably see a lot of time in the big leagues this year. He will need to change positions, obviously, with Jose's brother blocking his path at third base.

#22 Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Deivi Garcia (63), Joe Ryan (119), Bryse Wilson (122)
Unranked prospects: Robert Hassell, Miguel Hiraldo, Alejandro Kirk, D'Shawn Knowles, Gabriel Moreno, Kevin Padlo, Taylor Walls, Colton Welker, Tyler Ivey, Cristian Javier, Dean Kremer, Eli Morgan, Tyler Phillips

It seems like just yesterday, the Akron farm system ranked number one in this survey. Actually, it was two years ago. At my age, two years is like a short nap. Back then, the Akron farm was headed by some guy named Acuna. It also included Francisco Mejia, Mitch Keller, Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Austin Riley, and Brandon Woodruff. All of those guys graduated to the big leagues, but there was no Second Wave waiting to take their places.

Garcia had a breakout 2019 season that included 165 K's in 111+ innings (13.3 per nine.) He also walked a shit-ton of batters (4.4 per nine), which suggests that he may need a little more minor league seasoning. He has great stuff, and will eventually be a solid mid-rotation starter for Akron at some point in the near future. Akron's first-round pick this winter, Ryan, has pitched roughly the equivalent of one full season in his minor league career with some impressive numbers: 160 IP, 103 H, 10 HR, 41 BB, 234 K, 2.36 ERA. Yet, he attained only one ranking (by BA) of #98. The knock on him is a lack of secondary stuff, which suggests he's more suited for the bullpen. Wilson has the same issue.

#23 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Jhoan Duran (87), Tony Gonsolin (93), Ryan Mountcastle (116)
Unranked prospects: Aaron Bracho, William Contreras, Tyler Nevin, Alexfri Planez, Hudson Potts, Logan Wyatt, Cory Abbott, Daulton Jefferies, JoJo Romero, Jonathan Stiever, Alex Vesia

The Jamboree haven't had a top-ten farm system since 2013. Boo! How can a franchise expect to compete in the Griffin Division with a bottom-tier farm system? Boo, I say!

Duran, the ninth overall pick in this winter's farm draft, was seemingly everyone's "sleeper" pick. He came out of nowhere to post some decent numbers (78-63-5-31-95) in High-A ball last year, but then ran into some trouble in Double-A. I'm surprised to see Gonsolin is eligible for these rankings, given that he tossed 40 innings in The Show last year. They were 40 quality innings, too. He should find a spot somewhere in the LA pitching staff on Opening Day.

Mountcastle, like almost all Orioles prospects not named Rutschman, is so boring that merely reading his name makes me sleepy. But I suppose someone has to own him. I've never heard of almost all of the guys on the unranked list, but that's only because I don't really follow baseball. I do know that Contreras is related to Wilsson, so I guess that's good. I wonder if Jefferies is related to Gregg? Or Darren Daulton?

#24 Buckingham Sovereigns
Ranked prospects: Kevin Alcantara (104)
Unranked prospects: Antonio Cabello, Maikol Escotto, Anthony Garcia, Dermis Garcia, Canaan Smith, Josh Stowers, Nick Bitsko, Roansy Contreras, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Kumar Rocker, Osiel Rodriguez, Tony Santillan, Miguel Yajure

I have given up trying to understand why Tony Badger only drafts Yankees prospects for his farm system. One of the many problems with this strategy is that he hasn't even drafted the Yankees' top prospects. Of Baseball America's top ten Yankees prospects, the Sovereigns only own three of them! Alcantara, a 16-year-old Yankees outfielder, received a #81 ranking by FanGraphs, but is a long, long, way from contributing in the BDBL. Only three prospects on this entire farm club are NOT in the Yankees system: Rocker, Bitsko, and Santillan.

Rocker, of course, is the best prospect on this club. He will likely be the #1 overall MLB draft pick in 2021. But what happens if the Yankees don't draft him? Will Badger keep him? Who knows! Bitsko is now a draft-eligible high school junior who is ranked #21 in this draft class by Baseball America and #16 by FanGraphs. Santillan is...a 22-year-old pitcher in the Reds organization who posted a 4.84 ERA in Double-A last year. Which one of these things is not like the other? Santillan didn't even pitch in the Yankees organization at any point in his career. He was born and raised in Texas; not Pennsylvania. I don't see the connection here. Maybe he was selected because his name is Tony? I'm at a loss.