May, 2020

Chapter Two Recap

It is difficult to believe, but the last time I wrote a FTDOTC article, the world was normal. We left our houses just for fun. We went to restaurants and actually sat inside them. We shook hands with both friends and strangers. We thought nothing of buying toilet paper and cleaning supplies at the grocery store, as the shelves were always stocked. We attended concerts and sporting events. Who knew that all of these things would become abnormal in only a few weeks?

The world has changed -- perhaps forever. The BDBL world, however, remains the same. In the BDBL world, the games continue as though nothing has happened. Fans still pack Sam Adams Stadium, The Graveyard, and Slyme Stadium without a care in the world. They high-five each other, often complete strangers, in celebration of their common bond. The players are frozen in time, oblivious to the outside world. As long as the games are being played, we can escape from the madness and immerse ourselves in this fantasy world.

This, too, shall pass. Baseball may never be the same, but the BDBL will always endure.

Players of the Chapter

Just two years ago, halfway through the 2018 season, the Kansas Law Dogs picked up a player in the first round of the midseason farm draft who had never been drafted before (to my knowledge.) This player was a 27-year-old relatively unknown journeyman who had kicked around the minor leagues for six years. He never ranked among the top 100 prospects in the game. He never even ranked among the top ten prospects for his MLB team. Then he was traded to the Dodgers and something suddenly snapped. Somehow, Max Muncy instantly morphed into a legitimate Major League superstar. The EL's Hitter of the Chapter hit .321/.441/.774 in Chapter Two, with 11 homers and 30.6 runs created.

The Las Vegas Flamingos are hanging in the Benes Division race, and trail the leader by only three games, all thanks to one man: Pete Alonso. Alonso has racked up over 60 runs created so far this season -- over 21% of the team's total. The two next-highest totals on the Flamingos belong to Trey Mancini (43.9) and Francisco Lindor (43.6). The next three players -- combined -- have created roughly as many runs as Alonso alone. The OL's Hitter of the Chapter hit .367/.444/.789, with 12 homers, 29 RBI's, and 38.4 runs created last chapter.

Chris Luhning paid a hefty ($17.5 million) price for Jacob deGrom. So far, he's getting every penny's worth from that investment. deGrom led the EL with a 1.17 ERA in Chapter Two, with a 5-1 record, a league-leading 63 strikeouts, and an opponents triple-slash line of .199/.253/.295.

I don't know who Aaron Civale is. In fact, I just had to check to see what his first name is. Apparently, he's a really good pitcher. Despite pitching for the third-place, sub-.500 Allentown Ridgebacks, Civale went a perfect 6-0 in Chapter Two, with a 2.70 ERA, and a .178/.236/.350 opponents batting line. Believe it or not, Aaron Civale is the OL's Pitcher of the Chapter. What a world. (Is this the point where Matt Clemm tells me Civale pitched a perfect game at our last BDBL Weekend?)

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Benes Division Clusterfark

One-third of the way into the 2020 season, all four teams in the Benes Division are at or above .500, and are separated by just three games. The Ravenswood Infidels currently lead with a record of 31-25, with Akron (29-27) two games behind, and Las Vegas and South Loop (both 28-28) three games behind. Ravenswood (+44) and Akron (+12) are the only two teams that have outscored their opponents so far this year.

Ravenswood ranks #2 (behind Salem) in the OL in runs scored (tied with Los Altos.) They are hitting .273/.342/.456 as a team, with all three triple-slash categories above the league average. They are scoring a ton of runs without hitting many home runs (68, ranked 10th out of 12 OL teams), but with a league-leading number of doubles (120) and triples (19).

Marcus Semien (.335/.409/.583) and J.T. Realmuto (.327/.372/.598) are hitting the snot out of the ball. Newly-acquired Charlie Blackmon (.310/.352/.584) continues to thumb his nose at ballpark factors. On the hill, Walker Buehler (7-2, 2.92 ERA in 74 IP) is pretty much carrying the pitching staff, which ranks in the middle of the pack with a 4.52 team ERA. Brett Anderson (3-4, 7.08 ERA) has been an absolute trainwreck. Newly-added Chris Sale (3-0, 3.80 in three starts) has been solid in his Ravenswood debut.

Akron's pitching has been abysmal this season. They rank seventh in the OL with a 4.83 team ERA, and fifth with an opponents OPS of .759. Jose Quintana (6.25 ERA), Marcus Stroman (6.04), and Robbie Ray (7.71) have started nearly half of Akron's games this season, and own a combined record of 5-12 with an ERA of 6.57.

Offensively, Akron ranks fourth in the OL in runs scored despite the second-lowest team OBP in the league (.308). They are scoring by simply pounding the ball over the fence. They rank second to only Los Altos in that category, with 108 homers. That's a pace of over 300 homers for the season! Ronald Acuna (21 HR) is on a Ruthian pace for 60 homers this year. Josh Bell (16), Keston Hiura (11), and David Dahl (10) are already in double digits.

The Las Vegas Flamingos have a league average offense across the board. As mentioned above, their entire offense has been carried by one man. The pink birds own the worst pitching staff in the division. Their 5.01 team ERA ranks ninth in the Ozzie League. They've allowed more hits than innings, and nearly an .800 (.795) opponents OPS. Chase Anderson (3.19 ERA in 10 starts) and Wade Miley (4.31 in 11) are the only two Vegas starters with an ERA below 5.00. Joey Lucchesi (6.02 in 12) and Jake Odorizzi (6.27 in 12) have been atrocious.

The South Loop Furies are the most average team in the Ozzie League. They rank sixth (out of 12 teams) in team ERA (4.70), sixth in runs allowed, fifth in runs scored, and seventh in team ERA. They have scored almost as many runs (283) as they have allowed (288). They are Team Even Steven.

Story #2: Sea Cats Surging

The South Carolina Sea Cats went an astounding 18-10 in Chapter Two, and led the entire BDBL with a +64 runs differential. Raise your hand if you saw that one coming! One chapter ago, South Carolina went 10-18 and were outscored by 18 runs. Where the hell did this come from?

To say this was a team effort would be an understatement. SEVEN different Sea Cats hitters posted between 21 and 28 runs created in Chapter Two, led by Brandon Lowe (.381/.424/.786) and Ozzie Albies (.367/.418/.550). The Sea Cats pitching staff, which posted a 5.58 ERA in Chapter One, improved to 3.99 in Chapter Two.

That improvement came almost entirely from the bullpen, with one lone exception: Julio Urias, who went 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA in five starts. Tommy Kahnle (1.35 ERA in 13+ IP), Aaron Bummer (1.64 in 11), Luke Jackson (1.72 in 15+), and Matt Andriese (2.00 in 18) all kicked ass in Chapter Two.

This seems like a weird blip on the radar, but who knows? If this continues for another chapter, we could see the Sea Cats challenge the first place SoCal Slyme, who are currently six games ahead in the Wilkie Division. Stranger things have happened.

Story #3: Pitching, Schmitching

Pitching and defense are overrated, it seems. 56 games into the season, we're looking at a league-wide ERA of 4.85. Only two teams (Salem at 3.46 and Los Altos at 3.93) own a team ERA below 4.00. EIGHT teams own an ERA above 5.00, one is above 6.00, and the Myrtle Beach Hitmen own a team ERA of...get this...7.02!

You have to go all the way back to the height of the Steroids Era in 2001 to find a league-wide ERA (4.82) that comes anywhere near 4.85. Only one team in BDBL history, the lowly Granite State Lightning of 2012, posted an ERA above 6.00. Their league record of 6.20 is definitely in jeopardy.

It has been many years since I have had to update the "Single Game, Team" records section of our History page. I have now had to do so twice: once for runs (27, by Chicago), and once for home runs (11, by Cleveland.) Scoring 20 or more runs in a game used to be a rarity. This year, three teams (Chicago, Niagara, and Cleveland) have scored 20+ in a game, and three others (Allentown, Salem, and Ravenswood) have scored 19. Nine different teams have scored 16 or more runs in a game this season, and two (Chicago and South Carolina) have done so twice!

The 2001 Kansas Law Dogs' record of 364 home runs in one season will likely be safe, but we currently have EIGHT teams in the BDBL that have already hit triple-digit home runs, and are on pace to finish with 285 this season. Five of those teams are on pace for 300+, led by the Black Sox, who are on pace for 357. (The Great Lake Sphinx are right behind, at a pace of 354.)

6,776 home runs were hit in MLB 2019. The BDBL -- with six fewer teams -- is on pace for 6,074 homers. MLB's total ERA in 2019 was 4.49. We're at 4.85.

What's going on here? Is the game broken? Did DMB screw up the disk? Are we looking at massive regression in the final four chapters? Did someone slip androstenedione into the water supply? I guess we will find out.

Story #4: Bearly Hanging On?

The Bear Country Jamboree went a mediocre 15-13 in Chapter Two, but remain close enough to the Los Altos Undertakers (three games) to make it a tight race. Their 35-21 record looks to be comfortably ahead of the rest of the Ozzie League pack, but it may be somewhat of an illusion. They have outscored their opponents by only six runs this season, and their Pythagorean difference (+6) reflects this oddity.

Normally, a Pythagorean difference of that size is easily explained by a team's better-than-expected record in one-run games, but the Jamboree's 8-6 record in those games is hardly notable. I looked into every number I could find to explain why Bear Country is winning so many more games than expected. In the end, I found one possible explanation.

Jose Urena (8.80 ERA in 45 IP) and Josh Tomlin (7.04 ERA in 30+ IP) have been godawful this season, and yet they have pitched in 17 games each, and 95 innings combined. That is a LOT of usage for two horrendous pitchers! The odd part is that their combined record is 0-0. How on earth is this possible?

Urena allowed more runs than innings in SEVEN appearances this year. Bear Country went 3-4 in those seven games. In the first game, Urena allowed three meaningless runs in the ninth inning of a 7-5 win. In another game, he was charged with three earned runs in the ninth that tied the game. He was then taken off the hook by a 10th inning win.

In another game, Urena pitched mop-up in a 19-1 blowout loss (to Salem.) Likewise, he pitched mop-up in an eventual 11-1 loss. He allowed SIX runs in the ninth inning against Las Vegas, which turned a 9-1 lead into a 9-9 tie, but again, his team bailed him out with a walk-off win. He also allowed four runs in three-plus against Los Altos, but didn't get the loss because of a quirky rule about assigning wins and losses.

In short, Bear Country's runs allowed would be much lower if Urena (and Tomlin) hadn't been used in so many blowout games. That deceiving number has seemingly led to a fortunate-looking Pythagorean record, which means the Jamboree is probably better than their runs differential would indicate.

Story #5: Chicago (On) Fire

No team was hotter in Chapter Two than the Chicago Black Sox, who increased their lead in the Hrbek Division to five games thanks to a 19-9 chapter. Their offense leads the league in two of the three true outcomes: home runs (125) and strikeouts (561, tied with Cleveland.) Kris Bryant (.315/.401/.645), Freddie Freeman (.322/.401/.653), and Bryce Harper (.279/.366/.608) are crushing the ball. Mike Moustakas (.297/.352/.568), Javier Baez (.288/.313/.565), and Eloy Jimenez (.271/.311/.643) are raking as well.

Their 4.34 team ERA ranks third in the EL (and sixth in the BDBL) despite the fact that they have allowed more hits (barely) than innings. Incredibly, their pitching staff, as a whole, are performing well above average despite the fact that Charlie Morton (4.52 ERA in 67+ IP), Shane Bieber (4.42 in 75+), and Dallas Keuchel (4.85 in 42+) have been rather mediocre. And Clayton Kershaw (2-6, 6.99 ERA in 47+ IP) can only dream of being mediocre.

The bullpen has carried this team so far. Carlos Martinez (0.90 ERA in 10 IP), Brandon Kintzler (1.61 in 22+), Oliver Drake (2.13 in 12+), Pedro Strop (2.45 in 11), and Daniel Hudson (3.00 in 21) have been outstanding. Martinez has saved 10 games in 10 appearances!

The Black Sox lead the Cleveland Rocks by five games, with the hard-luck Charlotte Mustangs a game behind Cleveland. Given that Charlotte has outscored their opponents by 38 runs this year, and Cleveland has been outscored by two runs, it seems likely that those two teams will switch places at some point. If Chicago ends up winning the division, it looks like whoever finishes in second place in the Hrbek Division will battle for the wildcard against the Great Lakes Sphinx, who are once again mysteriously defying expectations.