August, 2021

Chapter Four Recap

For the first time in a while, we have some movement in the standings. The Highland Freedom managed to catch up with the Carolina Saints in the Wilkie Division, fulfilling Adam Miner's prophecy that his team's chance of making the playoffs aren't a given.

The Great Lakes Sphinx continue to run away with the 2021 season. They sport the best winning percentage in the league by a full eight games ahead of the next-best team. They also owned the best record (19-5) in Chapter Four. Two divisions -- the McGowan and Wilkie -- are currently led by only four games. The OL wildcard race is also a four-game race, while the Eck League is only three.

Both contending teams in the McGowan race made big moves at the trading table this past chapter. Salem added Jose Altuve's bat to the lineup, while Joplin added Cody Bellinger and Corey Knebel.

With intradivisional play returning over the next two chapters, we've reached the point of the season where it starts to get very interesting.

Players of the Chapter

The Highland Freedom managed to eke into a tie for first place this past chapter, in large part thanks to the EL Hitter of the Chapter, Yoan Moncada. Moncada hit .333/.383/.621 for the chapter, with 21.4 runs created. That total is nearly double the number of runs created by any other batter on the Highland roster last chapter.

The Las Vegas Flamingos just keep winning and winning. They now own the largest division lead (by far) in the BDBL at 15 games, and are on pace to win 95 games, which would be the most number of wins this franchise has seen in twenty years! Vegas second baseman Adam Frazier hit .385/.415/.590 in Chapter Four, with 19.5 runs created, which means both of our Hitters of the Chapter are second basemen! (Possibly the first time that has ever happened.)

Patrick Corbin, also a member of the Freedom, is our EL Pitcher of the Chapter. He went a perfect 4-0 in Chapter Four, with a league-leading 1.35 ERA. He held opponents to a .183/.232/.258 batting line. Not bad for his Highland debut!

I'm getting tired of giving Gerrit Cole the OL Pitcher of the Chapter award, but it has to be done once more. Cole led the OL in all three triple-slash categories (.154/.175/.260), and posted a 2.06 ERA. Incredibly, he went just 2-2 in five Chapter Four starts! Cole posted a 9.08 ERA in Chapter One, and owns a 1.84 ERA since then. Go figure.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: BDBL Week...day 2021

After a year in which the entire world closed for business and our BDBL Weekend tradition was put on pause, the gang reconvened in Chicago for a quasi-BDBL Weekend gathering in June. This "weekend" gathering actually took place on a Tuesday night, as a total of seven BDBL members, past and present, took in a Chicago Cubs game against the Cleveland Ind-- err, Guardians of the Galaxy.

I arrived a day earlier, and met with Mike Stein and his buddies. We watched Monday's game from the rooftop bleachers across the street from left field. That experience was more than I expected. The place was much larger than it appears from the outside. There was a comfortable lounge area with a large window, with a mostly-obstructed view of the ballpark, but with plenty of monitors to see the game. Outside, one floor above, were the bleachers, where the view was better than expected.

Tickets to the rooftop included unlimited food and drinks. Naturally, we took full advantage of this perk and got our money's worth. I personally consumed a hotdog, a burger, pasta salad, chips, and probably a half-dozen cold beers. Sausages, popcorn, ice cream, and plenty of other treats were available as well -- all built into the price of the ticket.

Prior to the game, we watched a new (to me, at least) Wrigley tradition in which one of the players (or staff?) tossed several balls into the stands prior to the start of the game. One of those balls was thrown directly to me. It sailed on a perfect arc, directly into...and through...my hands. It landed on the bleacher beneath me, where a woman with cat-like reflexes grabbed it. This is why I retired from the game a few years ago.

The game itself was rather dull. The home team lost by a score of 4-0, thanks to the pitching of Aaron Civale and home runs by Bobby Bradley and Josh Naylor.

The following day, I secured a corner table in bar down the road from Wrigley, where I was soon joined by my son, Ryan, John and Ryne Gill, Brian "Skizm" Potrafka, Matt Clemm, and Stein. It was so nice to catch up with everyone after such a long break. We shared news from our personal lives and discussed the usual topics of BDBL rumors and gossip. After a couple of hours, we then headed to our seats in the bleachers at Wrigley.

I wish I could tell you what happened during that game, but it was impossible to focus on the game thanks to the constant distraction provided by Wrigley Field's newest trend: "The Cup Snake." This trend began only a few nights earlier, but had become a beloved new tradition by the time we arrived. For more than half the game, the "fans" in the Wrigley bleachers -- almost entirely composed of young Millennials -- became obsessed with building a "snake" made of discarded beer cups. The one nearest to us stretched from the bottom of the bleachers nearly to the top.

Let me tell you...in the history of annoying fan trends, the "Cup Snake" ranks at the very top as the most annoying. It is more annoying than "the Wave", the "YMCA", Boston's "Sweet Caroline", and even the incessant cowbells in Tampa. This new fan trend is a threat to the game of baseball itself.

Evidently, the Cubs won that game 7-1. At least, that's what I was told. After the game, we found a quiet-ish place where we could grab some food and some more beer before heading back to our homes and hotels.

All in all, it was a very welcome experience to have the gang back together, if only for a brief amount of time. Likewise, it was exhilarating just to be back at the ballpark, surrounded by thousands of people who were smiling and laughing and dancing and singing. After more than a year of locking ourselves indoors, I can safely say that "normal" has returned.

Story #2: The Sphinx Riddle Continues

It's gotten to the point where I'm tired of writing about what an unexpected surprise the Great Lakes Sphinx's 2021 season has been. I keep waiting for them to stumble at some point, but they just keep winning and winning. They finished with the best record (19-5) in Chapter Four, which gives them a 72-32 (.692) record for the season. They are on pace to win 111 games this year.

The Great. Lake. Sphinx. Are on pace. To win. One hundred. And eleven. Games.

Folks...I don't know how to explain this. I really don't. I suppose art is once again imitating life, as I can't explain the 2021 success of the San Francisco Giants, either. Maybe I just don't understand the game of baseball as well as I once thought I did.

The Sphinx are simply crushing their opponents. Their +145 runs differential is, by far, the highest total in the league. Only the Allentown Ridgebacks (+114) are above 100 in that category. Great Lakes has scored 604 runs this season -- again, far and away the highest total in the league.

Jim Doyle's gifts to the Eck League, Josh Donaldson (.349/.470/.658) and Carlos Santana (.325/.433/.669) are greatly enjoying their new home. Scott Romonosky's $18 million investment from last year, Christian Yelich, is enjoying another MVP-caliber season, hitting .329/.417/.591, with a team-leading 84.1 runs created. Charlie Blackmon (.268/.316/.543, 23 HR) continues to ignore his ballpark factors. And somehow, some way, Roughned Odor (of all people!) is hitting a monstrous .271/.334/.562 with 20 homers!

The team that is on pace to win 111 games this year owns a starting rotation that consists of Masahiro Tanaka, Trevor Williams, Mike Minor, Steven Matz, and Jake Arrieta. I shit you not. The newcomer to that rotation, Clayton Kershaw, has pitched in only eight games so far, and has gone a phenomenal 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA. He is yet charitable donation from the Doyle Foundation.

Jake Arrieta's projection stats are a 4.45 ERA in 129+ innings, with 817/700 splits. He currently owns an 11-1 record with a 3.07 ERA. I don't know what Scott knows about this game, but clearly he's figured out some flaw or bug that he is fully exploiting, which results in his hitters AND pitchers far outperforming their player cards. Maybe he took Peburn up on his offer from years ago and paid top dollar for his secrets?

Story #3: Ridgebacks Keep On Rollin'

Speaking of unexpected early surprise teams that just keep winning and winning, out of fifteen votes in preseason polling, only two people picked the Allentown Ridgebacks to win the Griffin Division. Yet, here we are, two-thirds of the way into the season, and Allentown holds a very comfortable four-game lead over the Los Altos Undertakers.

The Ridgebacks managed to gain a game in that race thanks to an OL-best 16-8 record in Chapter Four -- one game better than the Undertakers. As mentioned above, Allentown is one of only two teams in the BDBL with a positive runs differential of more than 100. The Ridgebacks rank #2 in runs scored (behind Los Altos) and #3 (behind Joplin and Salem) in runs allowed.

Like the Sphinx, the Ridgebacks are getting some incredibly unlikely performances from some thoroughly-mediocre pitchers like Tyler Anderson (5-0, 3.58 ERA in 60+ IP), J.A. Happ (5-3, 3.63 in 67), and Danny Duffy (5-1, 2.70 in 53+). In fact, Duffy's ERA is exactly two runs lower than his projected ERA!

Then, there are the bullpen contributors. Raise your hand if you've ever heard of Connor Seabold, Zac Grotz, or Grant Dayton. Those three have combined to allow 15 earned runs in 60+ innings (a 2.23 ERA.) To put that into perspective, Mariano Rivera, the only relief pitcher in our BDBL Hall of Fame, owns an ERA only slightly more impressive (2.05) than those three guys you've never heard of.

The Ridgebacks and Undertakers will face each other eight times over the next two chapters. Those eight games could very well decide the fate of this division -- and possibly this season.

Story #4: Saints Keep Marching On

When Adam Miner made his infamous deal with the Joplin Miners earlier this chapter, in which the Saints sent two useful playoff pieces to Joplin in exchange for a cheap 2022 reliever and a potential tie-breaker on Nathan Eovaldi (the first time in league history a player has ever been acquired for his tie-breaker!), Miner stated, "The Saints making the playoffs isn't a given."

Well, it appears that his team heard that message loud and clear, because the Miners are now tied with the Highland Freedom in the Wilkie Division after 104 games played. The Saints, perhaps reeling from the lack of faith from their skipper, went an abysmal 10-14 in Chapter Four, while the Freedom -- clearly sensing the opportunity to strike -- went 15-9, despite being outscored by their opponents.

The Wilkie Division appears to be one of those divisions that we see from time to time in BDBL history where no one seems to want to win. All four teams in the division have been outscored by their opponents. The South Carolina Sea Cats, who were expected by many to be highly-competitive in 2021, owned the worst record (6-18) in Chapter Four. The Niagara Locks, who were also expected to compete, went just 13-11.

With 56 games remaining, the Wilkie race is still very much up-for-grabs. Niagara trails by four games, while South Carolina trails by eight. Neither deficit is impossible to overcome.

Story #5: DumbleDoyle Does It Again

The Great Dismantling of Joplin's future continues apace. Just to recap, Joplin GM Jim Doyle decided to go "all-in" during our winter auction, spending nearly 100-percent of his budget on five players. Then, as the draft was still underway, he traded his top prospect to Chicago for Clayton Kershaw.

Then, just 50 games into the 2021 season, Doyle declared that he was "cutting his losses" and traded Kershaw, Josh Donaldson, Carlos Santana, Matt Barnes, and Martin Perez to the Great Lakes Sphinx, which completely disrupted the entire Eck League pennant race.

Then, just six days later, Doyle seemingly reversed course once again by trading his new top prospect for Khris Davis, a slugger with no future value. That trade marked the beginning of an historic dismantling of the franchise's future in exchange for the win-at-any-costs-now. The tally of trades has been staggering:

Let's try to dissect all of this. Joplin replaced Kershaw and Perez with Bumgarner and Paxton. Donaldson and Santana have been replaced in the lineup with Bellinger, Smoak, Murphy, and Ozuna. And several quality arms have been added to the bullpen.

You could argue that these are all upgrades, and you'd have a valid argument. But how much of an upgrade? And at what cost? Not a single player on the right side of that list above has 2022 value. Bumgarner, Manaea, Stammen, Cain, Murphy, Kimbrel, and Smoak are all free agents at the end of this season. Bellinger is hitting a mind-numbing .163/.274/.281, and is on the hook for $4.6 million in 2022. Paxton is owed a whopping $8.5 million, but will be released without penalty, as he has been injured all season. The same is true of Betances and LeClerc. Ozuna, who is currently serving time in prison for strangling his wife, will likely be cut for $3.3 million. Knebel has been injured all season and will not be resigned at $5 million in salary. That leaves only Dalbec, Isan Diaz, and Zach Brown -- none of whom have any 2022 value.

Bellinger stopped hitting in 2019. It's possible he could bounce back, but he will be owed $6.1 million in 2023, $7.6 million in 2024, and $9.1 million in 2025. It had better be the Comeback of the Century! Dalbec and Diaz are both currently sporting sub-.700 OPS's, but I suppose they're young enough to experience a "breakthrough" at some point. Other than that, there is zero future value on the right hand side.

Meanwhile, the Miners gave up Rogers, who is currently ranked (by WAR) as the sixth-best pitcher in baseball, Kirby (currently ranked #14 on the BA Midseason Top-100), and Priester (#62), along with Weathers (62+ IP, 2.73 ERA.)

The Miners have added nearly $8 million in penalties and useless salary, depleted their 2022 starting rotation, and depleted their farm system. If/when Doyle resigns, he will leave this league with a franchise that is mostly void of talent -- for the second time in our league's history. It's incredibly ironic that the man who has spent the better part of the past year advocating for the removal of our in-season VORP trading cap has demonstrated to the entire league why that cap is necessary in the first place.

Story #6: Eck's Wild

Mike Stein spent the past few weeks shoring up his bullpen in anticipation of the stretch run. His Cleveland Rocks trail the Chicago Black Sox in the Hrbek Division by six games, but they're only three games behind the Buckingham Sovereigns in the EL wildcard race.

Cleveland managed to gain one game in that wildcard race by going a division-best 15-9 in Chapter Four, while the Sovereigns finished with a record of 14-10. Only the Great Lakes Sphinx (among EL teams) managed to score more runs than the Rocks last chapter.

One potential stumbling block for the Rocks is that their ace, Jake Odorizzi (9-2, 3.63 ERA) is at 80-percent usage. He only has 45 innings remaining this season (or roughly seven starts.) The Sovereigns, on the other hand, have no glaring usage issues.

Buckingham and Cleveland rank #1 and #2 in the Eck League, respectively, in team ERA. They are very similar offensively as well, with Cleveland holding a slight 13-run advantage in runs scored over Buckingham.