April, 2022

Chapter One Recap

Players of the Chapter

In mid-June of last year, a 34-year-old veteran was enjoying a comeback season after several subpar years. Through 218 PA's, he was hitting .253/.339/.537 with 15 home runs, which ranked among the best offensive performances of the season. For various reasons, this old-timer went undrafted in the winter draft, and gained zero interest during the first two free agent pick-up periods of the 2021 BDBL season. At the Chapter Four deadline in mid-June, Brandon Crawford was finally selected by the Salem Cowtippers with the 16th pick of the first round. Crawford (.381/.430/.619, 25.8 RC) is our OL Hitter of the Chapter.

Crawford's BDBL teammate, Shohei Ohtani, leads the BDBL with a miniscule 0.95 ERA. The OL Pitcher of the Chapter also led the OL in lowest slugging percentage allowed (.253) and ranked #2 with the lowest batting average allowed (.182). He tied for the OL lead with four wins, going a perfect 4-0. Oh -- and he also hit .232/.362/.547 with 9 homers and 20 RC as Salem's full-time right-fielder when he wasn't on the mound.

Eight years ago, during the Obama administration, Niagara Locks GM Mike Ranney pushed all of his chips into the Latin American teenager market. With his first pick of the 2014 winter farm draft, he selected a thirteen-year-old named Kevin Maitan. As far as I can tell, Maitan was the youngest player ever selected in the BDBL. That gamble didn't exactly pay dividends, but in the second round, Ranney bought another lottery ticket with a 14-year-old Latin American prospect who would turn fifteen in mid-March of that year. Eight years later, that prospect, Vlad Guerrero, Jr., became our EL Chapter One Hitter of the Chapter. He led the EL in batting (.375), on-base (.470), and runs created (35.0) in Chapter One, while ranking #3 in slugging (.696). Those lottery tickets can sometimes pay huge dividends...if you have the patience to wait it out. Some of us with less patience trade those lottery tickets for a platoon outfielder's half-season.

One year before the Locks picked up Guerrero in the farm draft, the Salem Cowtippers picked up nine players for their farm in the midseason farm draft of 2013. To this day, that ranks as arguably the greatest farm draft in league history. Among Salem's nine pickups were Trea Turner, Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers, and Aaron Nola. Salem's very last pick in that draft -- a last-second decision -- was a 16-year-old pitcher by the name of Julio Urias. Two years later, Salem traded Urias to the South Carolina Sea Cats, along with Adam LaRoche, in exchange for Buster Posey, Freddie Freeman, and Trevor Plouffe. Eight years later, in his final year under contract with the Sea Cats, Urias (3-1, 1.80 ERA, .229/.234/.314) is our EL Pitcher of the Chapter.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: The Benes Division Race

Although Akron (by a vote of 11-2) was the overwhelming favorite to win the Benes Division this year, I think most of us expected they would have a tight race against the Ravenswood Infidels. That has definitely proven to be the case so far. After 28 games, the Ryche and Infidels are tied with an identical record of 18-10. Their Pythagorean records are within one game of each other, and they have outscored their competition by roughly similar (48 vs. 30) margins, so the tightness of this race is no mirage.

Akron's pitching has been as good as advertised, albeit not as good as they're capable of performing. They currently rank #2 in the BDBL with a 3.01 team ERA, and have held opposing hitters to a .691 OPS. Corbin Burnes (3-2, 2.40 ERA in 30 IP) has been a stud, as expected. Brandon Woodruff (2-2, 3.99 in 29+) and Gerrit Cole (2-2, 3.66 in 32) have under-performed a bit. The Akron bullpen has carried the pitching staff, with six different pitchers owning a sub-2.00 ERA and at least seven innings pitched.

Ravenswood managed to win 18 games in Chapter One despite the poor performances of two of their key starters: Hyun-Jin Ryu (0-3, 5.19 ERA in 26 IP) and Michael Fulmer (1-1, 5.29 in 17). Ravenswood went just 2-5 in games started by those two. In contrast, they went 5-0 in games started by Michael Pineda. The starting rotation may need some help down the stretch if the Infidels plan to stay in this race.

The Akron and Ravenswood offenses are fairly similar so far. They have scored 143 and 144 runs, respectively, despite Akron posting a team OPS that is more than 70 points higher. It's interesting to note that Akron's RC/27 is a full run higher (6.1 vs. 5.1) than their actual runs per game average.

Akron took three out of four games from Ravenswood at home last chapter. This chapter, they face off in Ravenswood, where the Infidels have played .750 baseball.

Story #2: The Wilkie Division Race

Preseason polling favored the D.C. Memorials to win the Wilkie Division over the Niagara Locks by a margin of 11-4. One chapter into the season, the two teams are deadlocked atop the division with identical 16-12 records.

In my preseason preview, I called Niagara's pitching staff an "afterthought," given the unusually paltry amount of salary allocated to their pitching and the concentration on grooming hitters from their bountiful farm system. So far, the Locks pitchers have performed well enough to keep their team in the game. Their 4.37 team ERA ranks in the middle of the pack (#5) in the Eck League. Their .713 OPS allowed ranks near the top, at number three.

Arguably their best starter, Antonio Senzatela, racked up a whopping seven starts in Chapter One, and went 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA. Tyler Glasnow, arguably their best starter, inning-for-inning, went just 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA, pitching solely out of the bullpen. Miguel Castro and Jose Urena pitched 31+ innings with an ERA of 7.76.

Sergio Romo, dropped by the Cowtippers on Cutdown Day, was the team's best reliever, racking up three saves with a 1.88 ERA in 14+ innings. Dillon Tate earned three vulture wins in relief, and posted a 2.16 ERA in 16+ innings. Neither performance seems sustainable.

The Memorials outscored their opponents by 21 runs more than Niagara's margin, but went just 2-5 in one-runs games, leading to a Pythagorean difference of minus-2. They blew five games when trailing or leading after seven innings and failed to come from behind once in Chapter One. Giovanny Gallegos blew three saves in four opportunities, and posted a -- get this -- 7.84 ERA in 10+ innings. He posted 540/561 splits in MLB '21. In Chapter One, his splits were 915/1011.

The law of regression suggests that these early small-sample trends cannot hold for much longer. Eventually, Niagara's pitching will buckle under pressure, and D.C.'s pitching will stabilize. Of course, I've been wrong before.

Story #3: The Sphinx Are Doing It Again!

Speaking of being wrong, I am so sick and tired of being wrong about the Great Lakes Sphinx that it has seriously caused me to question my sanity. There is no way this team should be in first place at any point in this season...and yet here we are. Again.

Granted, Great Lakes' lead in the Higuera Division is only one game ahead of South Philly. Kansas is only two games behind Great Lakes, and the last-place Sovereigns are only five games behind. The division is anyone's to take at this point. Still...why on earth is Great Lakes not looking up at all three teams??

Of the four teams in the division, the Sphinx are the only team that has outscored its opponents this year. The sole reason for that is the Great Lakes offense, which has pummeled its opponents into submission all year. The Sphinx lead the entire BDBL -- the entire BDBL -- with 180 runs scored.

Luis Urias...wait. Let me double-check that. Yes, Luis Urias is leading this team with 25.4 runs created -- almost the same exact total as the OL Hitter of the Chapter. He's batting -- get this -- .344/.449/.594 this season. Kolten Wong (.308/.362/.529), Josh Donaldson (.289/.386/.500), Yadier Molina (.407/.450/.778), and...

Wait.

Yadier Molina is hitting .407/.450/.778? Seriously?

I'm so done with trying to figure out the success of this team. I give up.

Story #4: Salem's Dominating Start

Our beloved Cowtippers currently own the best record in the BDBL. It has been a long time since I've been able to type those words. Given the early usage issues, our reign atop the league could be a short one, but it is nice to enjoy for as long as it lasts. Salem's 23-5 start to the season ranks among the best of all time. We have outscored our opponents by 92 runs -- 44 more than the next-highest margin.

We rank #1 in the Ozzie League in runs scored, OBP, slugging, home runs, walks, and triples. Our pitching staff ranks #1 in the BDBL in ERA (a microscopic 2.49), strikeouts, fewest hits allowed, and fewest homers allowed.

Obviously, none of this is sustainable. It's been fun, but it can only go downhill from here. Trust me, I know that better than anyone. One year ago today, I was boasting of having won the division title after going 20-8 in Chapter One and watching my main competition seemingly cede the division race. Things have a way of changing in a hurry in this league.

Story #5: The White Flag Disruption Has Begun

Every year, some team completely disrupts the division races by waving the white flag and selling their best players to competitive teams in tight division races. Often, it seems those disruptive white-flag teams are the same teams year after year.

This year, the South Loop Furies kicked off the White Flag Season early by dealing nearly their entire annual allotment of WAR points to the Chicago Black Sox and Buckingham Sovereigns.

Chicago received a boost in the form of Bryan Reynolds and Luke Jackson. Chicago's lineup is already so loaded, it's unclear where Reynolds will play. GM John Gill has publicly stated that Reynolds will bat leadoff and play center field, which means winter free agent signing A.J. Pollock (.363/.416/.712) will have to shift to one of the corners. Given that Bryce Harper plays right field, that leaves left field, where Kyle Schwarber is currently hitting .234/.372/.688.

Schwarber hit .268/.389/.398 against lefties in MLB '21, but has hardly played at all against southpaws in Chicago. I can only assume Pollock (.288/.360/.512 vs. LH in MLB) and Schwarber will now platoon in left, which means Pollock (.301/.353/.548) sits against righties? Regardless of the alignment, it's a good example of gross excess. At the end of the day, it's questionable how much added value Reynolds brings over the existing options.

The other beneficiary of South Loop's flag-waving is the Buckingham Sovereigns, who replaced Jose Abreu in their lineup with Freddie Freeman. Abreu was hitting .227/.325/.400 overall for Buckingham before the trade. Those numbers are far below his MLB numbers, which suggests there should be some major regression happening over the next five chapters. Freeman was hitting just .272/.361/.388 for South Loop this year -- also well below his MLB numbers. Again, it seems unclear that there was much of an upgrade with this trade.

The Cleveland Rocks also did a bit of flag-waving themselves, dealing Hunter Renfroe and Dylan Floro to the Ravenswood Infidels minutes before the deadline. Floro should be -- should be -- an elite closer in this league, but he's been absolutely killed so far (9.75 ERA in 12 IP, with 16 hits and 3 HR allowed) in the BDBL. Renfroe (.287/.342/.525) is a valuable addition, both offensively and defensively. Neither player is going to single-handedly swing the division to Ravenswood's favor, but they certainly don't hurt. In a tight race, adding one or two wins could make all the difference in the world.

Story #6: Charlotte's Hot Start

The best team in the Eck League, to date, has been the Charlotte Mustangs. They kicked off the season with a 20-8 showing in Chapter One -- five games better than the second-place Black Sox. Their +44 runs differential ranks #1 in the Eck -- one run higher than the Memorials. They have scored more runs that every other EL team except for the ridiculous Sphinx. They have allowed fewer runs than every other EL team except for the Memorials and -- surprisingly enough -- Myrtle Beach Hitmen (but by a margin of only three runs separating the three teams.)

The scary part is that Charlotte has accomplished all of this despite the fact that Juan Soto has barely warmed up yet. He's hitting "just" .264/.391/.481 so far, which means he will hit .500/.600/.800 the rest of the way if the numbers work out as expected. For the most part, Charlotte's hitters have performed as expected with one exception: Daulton Varsho. The dude is absolutely raking (.333/.402/.611) despite hitting just .246/.318/.437 on the disk.

The truly ridiculous stat for the Mustangs is the fact that some guys named Art, John, and Paolo -- who sound more like a team of plumbers than relievers -- have tossed a whopping 41 innings -- four and a half games! -- without allowing a single earned run this season. Add Kenley Jansen to that mix, and those four Charlotte pitchers own a 0.31 ERA in nearly 60 innings. Absolutely ridiculous.

Then, on the flip side, you have Jose "Don't Call Me J.O." Berrios with his 6.68 ERA in six starts, Lance McCullers with a 5.55 ERA in five starts, Chris Flexen with a 5.24 ERA in four starts, and David Peterson with a 6.39 ERA in three starts. Combined, those four pitchers started 18 out of Charlotte's 28 games and posted a 5.99 ERA. Daniel Hudson, pitching solely in relief, posted a whopping 7.59 ERA in 10+ innings.

...And yet the Mustangs went 20-8.

Nothing about Charlotte's pitching staff makes a lick of sense right now.

Story #7: Loaded for Bear

The last time the Bear Country Jamboree won a division title, I was a young man in my 30's, with my whole life still ahead of me. Call me crazy, but I think I may witness another Jamboree title before my flame is snuffed. While Jeff Paulson takes a year off to regroup and build his next decade-long dynasty, Matt Clemm is taking full advantage of the situation. The Jamboree own a rather comfortable three-game lead in the Griffin Division, and were the only team in the division to post a winning record in Chapter One.

I can't help but note a continuing pattern that makes it clear that the past several years were no accident. For the twelfth year in a row, the Jamboree own a positive Pythagorean difference. Three times in the past six seasons, Bear Country has owned a Pythagorean difference in the double digits. This season, after only one chapter, their PD is already at +3. What is this sorcery?

The Jamboree are winning this year despite an offense that ranks among the bottom half of the OL in runs scored. They are hitting just .233/.299/.393 as a team. All three slash categories are below the league average. With an above-average pitching staff, this has led, not surprisingly, to a lot of one-run games. Bear Country played twelve of them in Chapter One -- more than any other team in the BDBL -- and won eight of those twelve.

Normally, I would say that any team that is playing that many close games, and owns a PD that high, is due to regress over a 160-game marathon, but the Jamboree have proven, time and again, that they can sustain that pace. Given the lack of competition in the Griffin Division, it seems like they can cruise into the postseason relatively easily. It would be the third postseason appearance in a row for the Jamboree, who lost the Division Series in each of the past two seasons.

Story #8: Lake Woe-is-me

On Opening Day, the Lake Norman Monsters looked like a decent ballclub. They had a solid lineup and starting rotation, but were a little lacking in the bullpen. I figured they would probably finish below .500, but had an outside shot at .500. After an abysmal 5-23 start to this season, however, the Monsters would have to play .568 baseball from now until the end of the season to reach .500.

The Monsters are on pace to lose 131 games this year, which would be a new BDBL record. They are hardly alone. Flagstaff (120-loss pace), Highland (114), and Cleveland (109) are also within spitting distance of the record. The Peaks have already been outscored by nearly 100 runs. Flagstaff and Lake Norman both own team ERA's north of 6.00.

This may not be the Year of the Superteam, but it could be the Year of the Superbad Team.