February, 2022

2022 Season Preview

Welcome to the 2022 season! Unlike the 2021 season, which sucked ass from beginning to end, this one is going to be great, I promise! For starters, I have no idea which team is going to win the trophy this season. Historically speaking, that is a fairly unique statement to make. I can honestly say that there are no fewer than ten teams that could plausibly win the championship this season. That's nearly half the league!

Another reason why this season won't suck: some of the teams that are likely to finish this season with winning records haven't done so in a very long time. The North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs haven't had a winning season since 2010 -- a dozen years ago! It has been sixteen years since the South Carolina Sea Cats' last winning season. The Myrtle Beach Hitmen franchise hasn't had a winning season since the 90's! All three franchises appear to be poised to break those losing streaks this year.

Another reason why this season won't suck: NO PROJECTION DISK!

There are no "superteams" this year. Each and every team has its strengths and weaknesses. The trophy is completely up for grabs. Who wants it?!

Jump to:
McGowan | Benes | Griffin | Higuera | Wilkie | Hrbek

Salem Cowtippers

Owner: Mike Glander
2021 Record: 85-75 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Lance Lynn (.605), Shohei Ohtani (.637), Framber Valdez (.641), Luis H. Garcia (.687), Steven Matz (.725), Jon Gray (.740)
Bullpen: Ryan Tepera (.514), Ranger Suarez (.523), Joe Kelly (.544), Dominic Leone (.547), Jake McGee (.565), David Bednar (.577), Gregory Soto (.635), Luis A. Garcia (.550)
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner (2B, .911), Brandon Belt (1B, .975), Rafael Devers (3B, .890), Shohei Ohtani (RF, .965), Chad Pinder/Brandon Crawford (SS, .884/.961), Ramon Laureano/Mark Canha (CF, .858/.755), Andrew Benintendi (LF, .766), Austin Nola/Zack Collins (C, .821/.710)

Strengths: The top half of this lineup is filled with 900+ OPS mashers. Although limited in usage, Belt will thrive in Salem's newly-remodeled home ballpark. He could create 110+ runs in fewer than 420 PA's. He is surrounded by one of the game's greatest power threats, Ohtani (46 HR), franchise player Devers (38 HR), and the Comeback Kid, Brandon Crawford (.319/.401/.560 vs. RH.) Leading it all off is Trea Turner (.328/.375/.536, 28 HR, 32 SB), who enjoyed one of the greatest seasons ever for a middle infielder. Among all qualified hitters in MLB '21, Salem owns four of the top twenty as ranked by OPS.

The Salem bullpen is absolutely loaded, including six pitchers with 40+ innings and a sub-600 OPS. No other team in the BDBL matches that total. The bullpen is well-balanced with lefties and righties. Swing-man Suarez (106 innings, 311/600 splits) will earn his $9 million salary by spot-starting and multi-inning relieving as needed.

Weaknesses: Thanks to the Baltimore Orioles dicking around with Adley Rutschman's service time, Salem is without a catcher yet again in 2022. That gaping hole behind the plate will be temporarily filled by the lackluster platoon of Nola and Collins until Rutschman arrives. Although it is the only real hole in this lineup, it is also worth noting how left-handed this lineup is -- even against left-handers! Something may need to be done about that, eventually.

Every pitcher in the Salem rotation has a significant platoon split with the exceptions of Gray (730/754) and Matz (720/727) -- neither of whom is particularly good against either side. Salem will need to get the ball into the hands of that bullpen as quickly as possible.

With the exceptions of the games in which Ohtani pitches, Salem's defense will feature two Pr gloves in the lineup: Devers at third base and Ohtani in right. Salem owned the worst defense in the league in 2021, and it looks as though that will carry through into '22 as well.

Outlook: This is a drastically different Salem team than the one that barely finished above .500 a year ago. That team relied almost exclusively on a starting rotation that turned out to be a disappointment and failed miserably in their experimental bullpen usage. The '22 Tippers will rely much more on the bullpen and offense, both of which tend to be a bit more reliable. The move to a more hitter-friendly ballpark, alone, should help boost an offense that finished in the middle of the pack in '21.

A year ago, the Joplin Miners were the only other team in this division that was trying to win. This year, the franchise formally known as Joplin (and then briefly known as the Bradenton Blazers) is sifting through the wreckage left by the former ownership to find enough scraps to field a team. The Darien Blue Wave have been forced into another rebuilding year, thanks to their $26.5 million star's injury-plagued MLB season. That leaves only the North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs, who made some big off-season acquisitions and benefit from a couple of surprise performances in the big leagues last year.

Prediction: 1st place. I did not even realize it until it was brought to my attention, but the Salem Cowtippers evidently lead the league in MLB '21 WAR. If the team leading the league in WAR doesn't win a division title, then I may as well just pack it in. The postseason promises to be an absolute bloodbath, so I won't even predict what will happen once we get to that point. I know, it's the cowardly way out, but I'm sticking to it.

North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs

Owner: Ian Hartner
2021 Record: 68-92 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright (.627), Zach Plesac (.735), Merrill Kelly (.748), Zach Eflin (.767), Jack Flaherty (.642)
Bullpen: Deolis Guerra (.645), Craig Stammen (.652), Connor Brogdon (.644), Ryan Thompson (.642), Tyler Duffey (.619), Yusmeiro Petit (.659), Pete Fairbanks (.659)
Projected Lineup: Jonathan India (2B, .835), J.T. Realmuto (C, .782), Darin Ruf/Joey Votto (1B, 1.007/1.048), Trevor Story (SS, .801), Matt Chapman (3B, .716), Ryan Mountcastle (LF, .796), Chas McCormick/Bradley Zimmer (CF, .822/.707), Jake Meyers/Ian Happ (RF, .899/.789)

Strengths: In all my years of writing these season previews, this is the first time I ever remember seeing a platoon where both partners own a split OPS above 1.000. That first base platoon of Ruf and Votto is truly impressive! India and Realmuto are quality table-setters for that platoon, and Story, Chapman, and Mountcastle provide plenty of protection. There really isn't a weak spot in this lineup.

For all of his perilous future downside, Wainwright is still a stud for 2022 purposes. There aren't many 200+ inning workhorses in baseball anymore. Owning one with a 2.67 CERA is quite an asset.

Weaknesses: Guerra (634/654 in 65+ IP) is a quality reliever, but he doesn't quite fit the stereotypical role of closer. The North Carolina bullpen is solid, but not especially noteworthy. The same can be said of the back of this rotation. Flaherty is the best of the lot, but is limited to just 85 innings.

Outlook: On paper, the Cowtippers look like the clear favorites to win this division. That leaves the OL wildcard, which looks like an epic battle between the Ravenswood Infidels and Akron Ryche. I don't think the Iron Spider Pigs are better than any of those teams, but they're damn good, nonetheless. The last time this franchise finished in second place was in 2016, even though that team lost 91 games. The last time this franchise finished with a winning record was all the way back in 2010. I highly suspect we will see that streak of losing seasons broken this year.

Prediction: 2nd place, with at least 85 wins.

Darien Blue Wave

Owner: Lee Scholtz
2021 Record: 59-101 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Adrian Houser (.662), Logan Gilbert (.716), Dane Dunning (.772), Jose Suarez (.686), Huascar Ynoa (.701), Tyler Megill (.778)
Bullpen: Cody Sulser (.596), Tyler Matzek (.581), Nick Sandlin (.584), Tanner Houck (.608), Tyler Rogers (.611), Garrett Whitlock (.631), Anthony Bender (.638)
Projected Lineup: Justin Turner (3B, .832), Yordan Alvarez (LF, .877), Mike Trout (CF, 1.090), Austin Hays/Tyler Naquin (LF, .896/.853), Miguel Sano (1B, .778), Brett Phillips (RF, .727), Amed Rosario/Jonathan Villar (SS, .839/.746), David Fletcher (2B, .622), Ryan Jeffers/Tom Murphy (C, .660)

Strengths: Not listed above are several pitchers who didn't have enough innings to be worth mentioning individually. However, if you put Michael Kopech (69+ IP, 2.88 CERA), Tony Gonsolin (55+, 3.72), and Spencer Turnbull (50, 2.14) together, you'd have one pitcher with 175 innings pitched and a 3.24 ERA. Basically, Darien has a three-headed ace.

The bullpen isn't bad at all. Sulser (596/544) can handle both lefties and righties. Sandlin (584/627) has some nice reverse splits. Matzek (581/662) is a lefty setup guy who can handle righties well enough. Rogers (611/456) has nearly 90 innings of usage.

Trout will be a major asset in the 160 plate appearances he will be allowed this season. Of course, we all know that half of those PA's will be used whenever Salem is in town.

Weaknesses: I never seem to know what to say about the Darien pitching staff. Regardless of what I say, they seem to kick my ass -- and no one else's -- every single year. Adrian Houser is no one's idea of an ace, but here he is for the second year in a row sitting at the top of the Darien starting rotation with a team-leading 142+ MLB innings. When you put it all together, it somehow works, but I still don't see how.

Even with Trout in the lineup, this isn't a very good lineup. Alvarez (881/874 splits) and Turner (818/837) are the only real threats other than Trout. Trout himself is weirdly vulnerable to left-handers this year, with a batting line of just .265/.468/.294 against southpaws. In the roughly 128 games in which Trout isn't in the lineup, who takes his place? There are no savory options available, unfortunately for Blue Wave fans.

Outlook: Lee Scholtz has patiently waited three years for this team to come together and gel at the same time. I'm afraid he will need to wait at least one more year. The good news is that it seems more likely than not that this team will eventually morph into something good. If Trout remains healthy in MLB '22, and Jarren Duran and Trevor Larnach take the next step forward, and some of these young pitchers (Dunning, Gilbert, Kopech, Manning, Ynoa) do what they are capable of doing...Darien just may finally coalesce into a winning team in 2023.

In the meantime, Scholtz will have to content himself with playing spoiler to the Cowtippers.

Prediction: 3rd place. I predict that Mike Trout will have the greatest season of his Hall of Fame career in MLB '22, only because my predictions usually turn out wrong. [Insert grinning devil emoji.]

Flagstaff Peaks

Owners: Greg Newgard
2021 Record: 91-69 (1st place, BDBL champions)
Projected Rotation: Trevor Bauer (.632), Eduardo Rodriguez (.766), Dallas Keuchel (.827), Jordan Lyles (.834), Zach Davies (.852), John Gant (.720)
Bullpen: Richard Rodriguez (.619), Phillips Valdez (.700), Hirokazu Sawamura (.768), Tim Hill (.704), Dennis Santana (.692), Bryan Shaw (.712)
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts (RF, .854), Marcus Semien (SS, .873), Nelson Cruz (1B, .832), Bobby Dalbec (3B, .792), Alex Dickerson (LF, .725), Michael Taylor/Raimel Tapia (CF, .769/.710), Hanser Alberto/Alcides Escobar (2B, .771/.745), Roberto Perez/Victor Caratini (C, .699/.628)

Strengths: Bauer is a half-season ace with 118 innings of usage and oodles of trade appeal. Betts, Semien, and Cruz form a solid threesome at the top of the lineup. And...well, that's about it.

Weaknesses: Rodriguez should perform far better in the BDBL than his MLB numbers suggest. Once you get past him in the rotation, however, it gets ugly in a hurry. Bauer and E-Rod are the only two above-average pitchers in the rotation, and they're limited to fewer than 300 innings combined. That leaves about 660 innings left to fill, with only barely-warm bodies to fill those innings.

Offensively, the Peaks have four legitimate threats in the lineup against left-handers, but only two (Betts and Semien) against righties. As a team, the Peaks hit just .237/.308/.415 against right-handers in MLB '21.

Outlook: This is now the second time that Jim Doyle has left the BDBL with a completely barren franchise that no one in his right mind would ever want to own. It will, of course, be the last time that happens. The Myrtle Beach Hitmen are now in Year Six of their rebuilding period after inheriting Doyle's first mess. Greg Newgard is now the lucky heir to Doyle's latest pile of trash and debris. It is a task I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy, never mind someone as nice as Greg.

In addition to Bauer, the team has some tasty trade bait with Cruz and Semien, assuming potential trade partners aren't scared away by their salaries. Unfortunately, that is the extent of their trade-able players unless I'm missing something.

Prediction: 4th place. From BDBL champions to last place. It's happened before. In 2010, Allentown won the league title and finished in last place the following year. Sylmar Padawans GM John Duel won a league title in 2012 and then skedaddled, leaving a last-place team as his parting gift to the BDBL. In 2017, Jeff Paulson won his third-straight trophy before finishing in last-place in 2018. It would be one of the most shocking events in league history if the Flagstaff Peaks don't join those three teams this season.

Akron Ryche

Owner: D.J. Shepard
2021 Record: 77-83 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Corbin Burnes (.521), Brandon Woodruff (.573), Gerrit Cole (.639), Cal Quantrill (.675), Kenta Maeda (.755), Nestor Cortes (.659)
Bullpen: Josh Hader (.421), Tim Mayza (.572), Tyler Wells (.603) Lucas Sims (.658), Josh Taylor (.662)
Projected Lineup: Ronald Acuna (RF, .990), Austin Riley (3B, .898), Josh Bell (1B, .823), Victor Reyes/Jesse Winker (LF, .861/1.070), Wilmer Flores (2B, .782), Harrison Bader (CF, .785), Dansby Swanson (SS, .760), Francisco Mejia/Riley Adams (C, .749/.766)

Strengths: When Gerrit Cole is your number three starter, you know something special is happening. Only three pitchers in baseball racked up 150 or more innings last year with an opponents OPS below .575. Akron owns two of them: Burnes and Woodruff. If this season ends without all three of Akron's aces earning multiple votes for the OL Cy Young award, then you know the Diamond Mind software is as broken as we have suspected it is.

Hader (.421) owns the second-lowest opponents OPS in all of baseball among pitchers with 50+ innings. (Only Jacob deGrom's, at .402, is lower.) Hader is one of two left-handers in the Akron bullpen who held opposing lefties to an OPS below .400, with Taylor (.381) being the other.

Acuna (1067/969 splits) was enjoying a career year before his unfortunate season-ending injury. Riley (752/941) had a breakout year at age 25. Bader (765/789) has developed into a valuable offensive contributor as well as a gold glove center fielder (Ex/Ex.) Winker (1.070 OPS) is a monster against right-handers.

Weaknesses: Unfortunately for Akron fans, Acuna is limited to fewer than 400 PA's this year, which translates to roughly 80 games. For the other half of the season, the Ryche will have to find someone to replace him. The only plausible option at the moment is Tommy Pham (689/735), who is a severe downgrade.

When Acuna isn't in the lineup, this offense does not look very scary at all. Against left-handed pitching, in particular, Akron appears to be very weak. As of this writing, Akron's total numbers against lefties are just .239/.322/.403, which ranks among the lowest OPS's in the league.

Outlook: Last year, the Salem Cowtippers proved that it is possible to not win a division title -- or even make the playoffs -- with a starting rotation that includes three Cy Young candidates. Needless to say, that team was an outlier. In general, having three aces is usually a ticket to the postseason. Akron's three aces aren't merely aces. Burnes' 2021 MLB season was one of the greatest in modern history. Burnes, Woodruff, and Cole all rank among the top ten in WAR. Has any team in BDBL history ever owned three of the top ten pitchers in baseball?

It is very easy to envision Akron leading the BDBL in fewest runs allowed. It is a bit more difficult to envision Akron ranking among the top ten teams in the BDBL in runs scored. The majority of their games could likely be low-scoring affairs, which tend to go both ways, in random and uncontrollable fashion. D.J. Shepard is skilled and experienced enough as a manager to navigate those treacherous waters.

Prediction: 1st place, but not by much. The contest between the Ryche and Infidels is so tight, it's a virtual coin flip. I can easily see either team winning this division. And whichever team loses is practically guaranteed to be the wildcard winner. Regardless of how this team gets there, I predict that Akron will advance far in the postseason -- all the way to the World Series.

Ravenswood Infidels

Owner: Brian Potrafka
2021 Record: 64-96 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer (.570), Walker Buehler (.586), Alek Manoah (.604), Hyun Jin Ryu (.733), Chris Paddack (.750), Michael Pineda (.755)
Bullpen: Trevor Richards (.612), Jesse Chavez (.522), Matt Wisler (.672), Michael Fulmer (.694), Juan Minaya (.624), Noe Ramirez (.547)
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve (2B, .839), Cedric Mullins (CF, .878), Jesus Aguilar (1B, .788), Garrett Cooper/Seth Brown (RF, .971/.776), Eric Haase/Omar Narvaez (C, .907/.805), Harold Ramirez/Tony Kemp (LF, .774/.818), Josh Harrison/Jeimer Candelario (3B, .795), Josh Harrison (SS, .741)

Strengths: Potrafka's swift exit from the 2021 pennant race gave him an early draft pick at the Chapter Three deadline, which he deftly used to select Mullins. Mullins should earn several votes for the MVP award by the end of this season. He crushes right-handers (.931 OPS), plays solid defense, and is the only 30-30 player in the game this year. He is arguably the best midseason free agent selection in league history.

Akron owns two of the three pitchers in baseball with 150+ innings and a sub-.575 OPS allowed. Scherzer (597/541 splits) is the other. Buehler (596/575) barely misses that arbitrary cut, but needless to say, he belongs in that elite group. That one-two punch of Scherzer and Buehler can compete with any team in the league, including Akron.

Weaknesses: Cooper (.971 vs. LH) and Haase (.907) are the only two real threats in the lineup against left-handers. Mullins (.788) and even Altuve (.789) are somewhat neutralized, at least compared to their numbers against right-handers. The bottom half of the Ravenswood lineup is solid, but unexciting.

Likewise, the bottom half of the starting rotation is league-average at best. Manoah (710/496) is a legitimate weapon against right-handers, but he is limited to 122 innings of usage overall. There are similar usage issues in the bullpen, where Chavez (37 IP) and Ramirez (39) are both severely limited. The problem there is that Chavez and Ramirez are the two most dominant relievers in the Infidels bullpen. The team lacks a shut-down closer, which could prove to be problematic given the limitations of this offense.

Outlook: Anything short of a second BDBL championship will be unacceptable to Brian Potrafka. This is basically true every year, but this year more than most. Expectations are extremely high in Ravenswood, and with good cause. This is a very good team with an excellent starting rotation and a solid lineup from one through eight. Is this team better than Akron? That is the question.

Akron's starting rotation gets the advantage thanks to the third ace they signed in the auction. (Their #4 and #5 starters are no slouches, either.) Akron's bullpen gets the obvious advantage, if for no other reason than the presence of Hader. I would say their offenses are very similar. I wouldn't be surprised if these two teams score the same number of runs this season, within a 20-run margin.

Prediction: 2nd place and the OL wildcard. Maybe I believe Ravenswood is the second-best team in this division. Or maybe I just want to send Skizm into apoplectic fits of angst and hysteria. But I'm not that mean. I do believe Akron is slightly better on paper. Fortunately for Skiz, we don't play this game on paper.

South Loop Furies

Owner: Bart Chinn
2021 Record: 72-88 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Anthony DeSclafani (.634), Aaron Civale (.731), Wade Miley (.729), Jose Urquidy (663), Matt Boyd (.716), Wily Peralta (.738)
Bullpen: Luke Jackson (.609), Caleb Thielbar (.697), Brad Boxberger (.618), Chris Stratton (.675)
Projected Lineup: Bryan Reynolds (CF, .912), Freddie Freeman (1B, .896), Avisail Garcia (RF, .820), Jorge Polanco (2B, .826), Mitch Haniger (LF, .804), Travis d'Arnaud/Jason Castro (C, .832/.917), Miguel Rojas/Matt Duffy (SS, .885/.765), Kyle Farmer (3B, .732)

Strengths: The Furies lineup is very strong, particularly the top half of it. Among the top (qualified) 50 hitters in baseball, ranked by OPS, South Loops owns four of them. This team should easily score more than 800 runs, even in the homer-suppressing Glik Park, and will likely feature several all-stars.

DeSclafani is a legitimate #1 starter. Urquidy is a half-season ace with 117 innings of usage. This should be a better-than-average pitching staff, ranking somewhere around the middle of the pack in ERA by the time the season ends.

Weaknesses: There are no real glaring weaknesses on this team, but there are some nits to pick. Civale (659/802), Miley (580/766), Peralta (613/858), and Urquidy (574/727) all have some significantly lopsided splits. Usage issues will require that the team fills innings with some unsavory characters, barring trade.

The biggest issue with this team is that there are two other teams in this division that appear to be much better on paper. That leaves little room for a path to the playoffs.

Outlook: Last year, Bart Chinn announced very early in the offseason that he would be in rebuilding mode in '21. He stuck to that decision even when it seemed as though the Furies had a shot at the playoffs. This winter, Chinn isn't behaving like someone in rebuilding mode. He spent the winter trading good prospects (Jarren Duran, Bryson Stott, Amir Garrett) for win-now players (Haniger, DeSclafani, Thielbar.) He then spent big bucks in the auction on win-now veterans like Polanco and Garcia.

Given the above-average offense and average pitching staff, it seems as though this team should post a winning record this year. In most years, and in most divisions, we'd be looking at at least a wildcard contender. Looking up at Akron and Ravenswood, however, I just don't see it.

Prediction: 4t

Las Vegas Flamingos

Owner: John Bochicchio
2021 Record: 97-63 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Zack Wheeler (.586), Chris Bassitt (.626), Tyle Mahle (.705), Rich Hill (.718), Tyler Anderson (.753)
Bullpen: Casey Sadler (.402), J.T. Chargois (.642), Lucas Luetge (.643), Zack Littell (.662), Louis Head (.496)
Projected Lineup: Adam Frazier (2B, .779), Andrew McCutchen/Eddie Rosario (LF, 1.027/.778), Pete Alonso (1B, .863), Pedro Severino/Taylor Ward (C, .818/.731), Francisco Lindor (SS, .734), Odubel Herrera (CF, .726), Colin Moran (3B?, .724), Tim Locastro? (RF, .515)

Strengths: Wheeler and Bassitt are solid as rocks at the top of this rotation. In a normal year, Wheeler would be the best pitcher in this division. This year, he may only be the fourth-best. In the bullpen, Sadler weirdly had a tremendous season, albeit in a small sample. Among all eligible pitchers in the BDBL (20+ innings), he owns the smallest OPS allowed in the league. We're talking about a 31-year-old veteran with a lackluster career of pitching middle-innings mop-up. All of a sudden, he's Mariano Rivera!

Alonso had another monster year, proving that 2019 wasn't a fluke. McCutchen is a legitimate threat against left-handed pitching.

Weaknesses: I have no idea who is playing third base for this team. Heading into the 27th round, the Flamingos didn't own a single player with a rating at third base. There doesn't even seem to be an option for someone to play out of position. Johnny Bo finally picked up a third baseman in Round 27, but it was someone named Yonny Hernandez, who owns 439/620 splits in only 166 PA's.

They also don't seem to have a full outfield. McCutchen (.650 OPS) can't hit righties if his life depended on it, so that makes Rosario (651/778 splits) his platoon partner. That leaves the worse-than-mediocre Herrera (686/744) and the godawful Locastro (666/431 in only 156 PA's) as the only options.

The average OPS in MLB '21 was .728. Three spots in the Vegas lineup are below that average, and two others are barely above it.

Outlook: How did this team get this bad so quickly? The Flamingos won 97 games a year ago and scored the fourth-most runs in the Ozzie League. It is difficult to imagine this '22 team scoring more than 700 runs. Wheeler, Bassitt, and Alonso are great, but they aren't great enough to carry this team alone. Even the usually-great Francisco Lindor, one of the two franchise players on this roster, had an off-year (715/743).

This sure looks like a rebuilding year for Las Vegas, especially given the intense competition in this division. Wheeler and Bassitt both have another year on their contracts beyond this one. Both would make prime trade bait if Johnny Bo decides to go that way. History, however, suggests that he won't. In twenty-three seasons, I cannot recall a single time when JB traded a star player for future considerations. It's possible my memory is faulty.

Prediction: 4th place. From first to last for the Flamingos, if my prediction holds. 2021 was fun while it lasted. Believe me, I was rooting harder than any Vegas fan for the Flamingos to win that OLCS, but it just wasn't meant to be. Now it's back to the normal. The Flamingos finished with 60-79 wins in nine out of the past fourteen seasons. I expect they will end up somewhere in that range this year.

Blacksburg Beamers

Owner: Dylan Badger
2021 Record: 95-65 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Kevin Gausman (.609), Joe Musgrove (.652), Adbert Alzolay (.733), Taylor Hearn (.745), Erick Fedde (.803), Danny Duffy (.650)
Bullpen: Andrew Kittredge (.592), Matt Barnes (.641), Clay Holmes (.580), Jhoulys Chacin (.708), Steve Cishek (.668), Edgar Santana (.664)
Projected Lineup: George Springer (CF, .907), Aaron Judge (RF, .916), Matt Olson (1B, .911), Giancarlo Stanton (LF, .870), Kike Hernandez (2B, .786), Aledmys Diaz/Brad Miller (3B, .789/.842), Yermin Mercedes/Curt Casali (C, .909/.742), J.P. Crawford (SS, .715)

Strengths: For the second year in a row, the Beamers franchise will feature a lineup that includes the terrifying trio of Judge, Stanton, and Olson. Those three combined to hit 113 home runs in MLB '21, and created 316.7 runs. Last year, the average BDBL team scored 747 runs. In other words, those three batters are capable of creating nearly half (42%) of an average team's total number of runs all by themselves.

Springer can usually be counted on to add another 100 runs, but is limited to just 376 PA's this season. Even with such limited usage, he is capable of adding another 65 runs. Hernandez, Miller, Diaz, and the catching platoon are no slouches at the plate, either. Even #8 hitter Crawford (701/724 splits) is no push-over.

Gausman is a legitimate ace with well-balanced (604/615) splits and a ton of usage (211 IP.) Musgrove (726/573) suffocates right-handed hitting and is also available for nearly 200 innings. The Blacksburg bullpen is well-stocked with plenty of good arms for every situation.

Weaknesses: The back half of the rotation is a little weak and a lot short of innings. The Beamers could probably get by with what they have, but another inning-eating arm would be beneficial. As it stands, I count roughly 800 innings among all Blacksburg pitchers rated as a starter, which is 880 innings with 110% usage. If you figure a team needs a six-inning starter for 160 games, that leaves the Beamers 80 innings short. Not the end of the world.

Outlook: Joining a league like this one is a total crapshoot. If you join on one day, you could inherit a well-stocked, jam-packed, franchise like this one, with a legitimate shot to compete immediately. If you wait a couple weeks later, the next franchise that becomes available could look like the scorched-earth Hellscape of the Flagstaff Peaks.

Young Dylan Badger won the New Guy Lottery with this franchise. It came complete with an offense that anyone would envy, a pitching staff loaded with quality arms, and a farm system that includes one of the top five prospects in the game. This division looks like it is Badger's to lose. Don't blow it, kid!

Prediction: 1st place. Just because you have the personnel to win a division title, and your team looks like a division champ on paper, doesn't mean you'll actually win the division. Many of us have learned that hard lesson well over the years. This game has a way of screwing with your best-laid plans and throwing one curveball after another until you beg for mercy. Isn't it great?

Bear Country Jamboree

Owner: Matt Clemm
2021 Record: 89-71 (2nd place, OL wildcard)
Projected Rotation: Logan Webb (.622), Frankie Montas (.666), John Means (.690), Dylan Cease (.670), Luis Castillo (.733)
Bullpen: Craig Kimbrel (.514), Drew Rasmussen (.575), Alex Vesia (.551), Aroldis Chapman (.678), Mark Melancon (.618), Trevor May (.698), Joel Payamps (.667)
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson (SS, .806), Paul Goldschmidt (1B, .879), J.D. Martinez (LF, .867), Kyle Garlick/LaMonte Wade (RF, .878/.860), Derek Hill/Myles Straw (CF, .792/.745), Phil Gosselin/J.D. Davis (3B, .696/.877), Jonathan Schoop (2B, .755), Martin Maldonado/Reese McGuire (C, .665/.700)

Strengths: The 2021 BDBL season will be remembered for many things; mostly negative, but some positive. One undeniable positive from '21 is the number of outstanding impact players that were picked out of the free agent garbage dump in the middle of the season. Logan Webb was once so undesirable that five chapters of the 2020 season passed before someone (Jeff Paulson) finally rescued him from the trash bin like George Costanza's discarded �clair. Halfway through the '21 season, Paulson was so tired of Webb that he tossed him back into the garbage. The very next chapter, Matt Clemm fished him out of there once again. And that is how the Bear Country Jamboree came to own their ace, who is now considered to be among the best pitchers in the game. Funny game, baseball.

Only 38 pitchers in baseball faced 500+ batters and held opponents to an OPS of .690 or lower (arbitrary cutoffs, I understand.) Bear Country owns four of those 38. Only the Akron Ryche and Salem Cowtippers can say the same. The Bear Country bullpen is so loaded that Aroldis Chapman is an afterthought. Kimbrel and Rasmussen (a 36th-round pick by Clemm last year) are legitimate closers. Vesia (2.04 CERA, 455/639 splits) would also fit into that category if he had pitched a few more than 40 innings. Melancon (410/768) owns some nifty reverse-splits that are always helpful.

Offensively, Anderson, Goldschmidt, and Martinez are all equal-opportunity mashers with full usage and well-balanced splits. Goldy totes an Ex glove in the field as well.

Weaknesses: As good as this pitching staff is, it's a shame that so little was spent on the offensive side of the ledger. The Jamboree had $15 million to spend, with gaping holes in the infield and outfield, and spent over half of their budget on Anderson. Without question, Anderson is good, but he doesn't solve all of those other problems in the lineup.

With no substantial money left to spend, Matt Clemm did the best he could to patch those holes with guys like Gosselin (696/661), Garlick (878/550 in 107), and Hill (792/632 in 150). The result is a very top-heavy lineup that looks like it could possibly finish in the middle of the pack in runs scored if they catch every lucky break possible.

Outlook: I really like this pitching staff a lot, and believe that Bear Country could finish this season at or near the top of the league in ERA. Last year, the Joplin Miners led the league in fewest runs allowed and ranked near the bottom (#8) in the Ozzie League in runs scored. All they did was win a BDBL championship. We've seen pitching win trophies in the BDBL. We have also seen teams with outstanding pitching flop in the postseason -- or even before then.

Like I said, baseball is a funny game.

Prediction: 2nd place. Unlike Matt's favorite MLB team, the Jamboree aren't boring at all. They have some exciting player in the lineup, some exciting young pitchers, and a bullpen filled with exciting arms. Is this team exciting enough to win the division? Well, maybe. Won't it be exciting to find out?!

Lake Norman Monsters

Owner: Joe Demski
2021 Record: 72-88 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola (.691), Zack Greinke (.725), Triston McKenzie (.676), Josh Fleming (.731), Cole Irvin (.746), Ross Stripling (.793)
Bullpen: Hansel Robles (.735), Blake Taylor (.720), Zach Pop (.713), Codi Heuer (.731)
Projected Lineup: D.J. LeMahieu (2B, .711), Chris Taylor/Brian Anderson (3B, .897/.804), Trey Mancini/Connor Joe (.899/.813), Luis Torrens/Jacob Stallings (C, .854/.763), Trent Grisham/Akil Baddoo (CF, .824/.841), Jose Iglesias/Chris Taylor (SS, .784/.733), Randal Grichuk/Anthony Santander (RF, .733/.732), Connor Joe/Brandon Marsh (LF, .941/.726)

Strengths: The Monsters seem to have platoons at every spot in the lineup, but they all work. I see platoons at seven out of the eight positions, and four of them feature platoon splits of .760-plus from both sides. Nothing wrong with that!

The starting rotation is pretty solid, with plenty of innings available, and no significant platoon split issues aside from Greinke's drastic reverse-splits (565/828).

Weaknesses: In this day and age where teams are handing Type H contracts to relievers like candy on Halloween, it is very strange to see a team that has gone in the opposite direction. Hansel Robles ($1MM) and Codi Heuer ($500K) are the only two relief pitchers on this roster with a salary above the league-minimum.

There is no closer on this team. No reliever owns an overall OPS below .700. Taylor (.470 vs. LH) is the only reliever on the squad with a sub-.600 OPS against either side -- and his OPS against righties (.881) limits his usefulness.

Outlook: Can a team win in 2022 without a decent bullpen? Well, remember that last year, the winningest team in the BDBL won 102 games with a bullpen that included such household names as Kyle Keller, Pedro Baez, Michael Feliz, Chaz Roe, and Phil Maton. Not a closer in the bunch.

There are many ways to skin a cat. (Side note: seriously, where does that saying come from? How sick is that?) We have seen many strategies deployed over the years, and oftentimes conflicting strategies work equally well. I don't think the Monsters have the horses to compete this season, but if they get their ducks all in a row, then they can win until the cows come home.

Okay, I think I have exhausted all of my 19th-century animal idioms.

Prediction: 3rd place. I think it is clear that the Monsters aren't the best team in this division. Are they the worst team? That remains to be seen. If they decide to wave the white flag at some point this season, they don't have a lot of tasty trade bait to offer. This could lead to a lost season for the Monsters, in which they play out the string while waiting for Triston McKenzie, Spencer Howard, and Aaron Nola to all gel together at the same time.

Los Altos Undertakers

Owner: Jeff Paulson
2021 Record: 88-72 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Ryan Yarbrough (.764), Caleb Smith (.726), Shane Bieber (.672), Brett Anderson (.766), Bailey Ober (.784), Joe Ross (.708)
Bullpen: Emmanuel Clase (.481), Kendall Graveman (.536), Jordan Romano (.576), Genesis Cabrera (.628), Tejay Antone (.508), Tyler Gilbert (.612), James Karinchak (.645)
Projected Lineup: Corey Seager (SS, .915), Kyle Tucker (CF, .917), Mitch Garver (C, .875), Patrick Wisdom/Ji-Man Choi (1B, .827/.843), Bo Bichette (3B, .828), Andy Ibanez/Christian Vazquez (2B, .898/.710), ??/Patrick Wisdom (LF, ??/.820), ?? (RF, ??)

Strengths: As always, every single year, like death and taxes, you can count on the Los Altos Undertakers featuring a world-class bullpen -- even in the years when Jeff Paulson isn't trying to win! Clase is one of the best closers in the game. Graveman (.348 OPS) absolutely stifles right-handed batters. Romano (434/673) and Cabrera (757/550) have some scary reverse-splits.

Seager (919/912 splits) and Tucker (910/920) both have well-balanced splits that are impossible to counter. Both should make the all-star team this year -- possibly both as starters. Garver (737/983) is one of the few catchers remaining in the game of baseball who can actually hit, although he is limited to just 267 PA's.

Weaknesses: In all my years of writing this preview, this is one of the few times I can remember where I was unable to fill out a lineup. There simply aren't enough players on this roster to do so. Cody Bellinger has 350 PA's to his name, but ugly 383/601 splits. I suppose if you're desperate, you have no choice but to play him. Is that really the plan?

The only eligible players rated in the outfield, aside from Bellinger and the players I've listed above, are Eloy Jimenez (231 PA, 575/795 splits) and Gavin Sheets (179, 269/900). Who, exactly, starts against lefties? Your guess is as good as mine. Maybe Jeff moves one of his two all-star shortstops (Seager or Bichette) to the outfield?

Likewise, Los Altos is about 90 innings short of having enough innings to get through this season, as their roster currently stands. That's easily-fixable through free agency, but we're talking about 90 innings of really bad usage from the dregs of the scrap heap. Even without the usage issues, the starting rotation is a mess.

Outlook: When Jeff Paulson decides to rebuild, he doesn't mess around. This roster is about as bare-bones as a roster can get. Rather than fill his team with warm bodies that serve no purpose other than to fill usage requirements, Jeff has put all of his eggs into the 2023 basket. He spent $15 million this winter on two pitchers who can contribute a grand total of 47 innings to the team this year. Those two pitchers (Noah Syndergaard and Chris Sale) are absolutely essential to the success of the 2023 Undertakers.

Jeff gambled another $5 million on Bellinger's comeback, but unlike the Syndergaard and Sale gambles, that one does not come attached with a future commitment. Even if all three players fail to stage a stirring comeback in MLB '22, the '23 Undertakers will likely still succeed, given the inevitable comebacks of Eloy Jimenez and Bieber, the continued development of Dustin May, and the returns of Seager and Bichette.

The last Undertakers "rebuilding period" lasted exactly one whole season, when Los Altos finished in last-place in 2018, and yet still finished six games above .500. They followed that season with 218 wins over their next two seasons. Their previous rebuilding period also lasted one year, when they went 82-78 in 2014 and followed that with 361 wins (and three straight championships) over the next three seasons.

In other words, don't cry for the Undertakers. They'll be just fine.

Prediction: 4th place, but don't be surprised if they finish in third place, with a record approaching .500.

Kansas Law Dogs

Owner: Chris Luhning
2021 Record: 68-92 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Trevor Rogers (.609), Kyle Gibson (.669), Marcus Stroman (.655), Austin Gomber (.721), Carlos Hernandez (.651)
Bullpen: Jacob deGrom (.402), Blake Treinen (.512), Jonathan Loaiziga (.548), Jose Ruiz (.648), Paul Sewald (.590), Adam Cimber (.604), Scott Barlow (.626), Jake Brentz (.665), Josh Staumont (.566)
Projected Lineup: Nicky Lopez (SS, .744), Ty France/Jazz Chisholm (2B, .874/.752), Max Muncy (1B, .895),  Salvador Perez (C, .859), Randy Arozarena (LF, .815), Garrett Hampson/Ty France (3B, .815/.781), Pavin Smith (CF, .728), Whit Merrifield (RF, .711)

Strengths: Reports out of spring training camp suggest that deGrom will be used as a super-closer this year. Assuming last year's failed experiment in Salem was an anomaly, and starting pitchers don't actually suck when used in relief, deGrom should be the most dominant reliever in the league. Among all pitchers with 40+ innings, deGrom is tied with Casey Sadler (who pitched 52 fewer innings) for the lowest OPS allowed in baseball. He owns the 18th-lowest OPS against left-handers (.442) and the second-lowest OPS (.366) against righties.

Even without deGrom, the Kansas bullpen is so deep that at least one of those names above will likely sit on the reserve roster for most of the year. Chris Luhning spent $6.5 million on Treinen, which makes him the most expensive setup man in the league. (deGrom, at $17.5 million, would be the league's most expensive closer.)

The starting rotation is solid from start to finish, with three pitchers capable of filling that number one spot. Arozarena (.921), France (.874), Muncy (.961), Perez (.982), and bench player Albert Pujols (.939) are all big-time threats against left-handers.

Although it's somewhat of a lost art, the Law Dogs could also steal a ton of bases. Four different 'Dogs stole 20 or more bases in MLB '21 -- and two of them stole at a success rate above 90%.

Weaknesses: It was difficult for me to fill in those last two spots in the lineup, as the outfield alignment doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Smith (.607 OPS vs. LH) is a platoon player without a platoon partner. Merrifield (720/708) was surprisingly sub-par against both lefties and righties. Hampson and Smith could play in the outfield, but that would open up a hole in the infield.

The lineup against right-handers isn't very intimidating. Other than Muncy (.871) and Perez (.812), no full-time player on the roster owns an OPS above .800 against righties. Part-timers Jordan Luplow (.893 in 73 AB) and Matt Vierling (.920 in 30) are the only others.

The trade of Casey Mize creates a 165-inning void that will be expensive to fill. Rogers (146 innings of usage), Gomber (126), and Hernandez (94) are already limited in usage as it is. The easiest solution would be to move deGrom (101) to the rotation -- which is now probably the likely move after the acquisition of Loaisiga.

Outlook: With this pitching staff and lineup, the Law Dogs will almost certainly compete for the division title this year. Kansas should rank at or near the top of the league in ERA and fewest runs allowed. The recent addition of Perez to this lineup completely changes the makeup of the offense. It pushes Arozarena further down the order, and gives the offense a much-needed power boost.

Prediction: 1st place. The Perez acquisition puts this team over the top, in my opinion. That may have been the most substantial trade acquisition this season, and it happened before the season even began! Even without Perez, the Law Dogs were the clear favorites to win this division. They should win it by double digits and coast into the playoffs uncontested.

Buckingham Sovereigns

Owners: Tony Badger
2021 Record: 92-68 (2nd place, EL wildcard)
Projected Rotation: Charlie Morton (.591), Jameson Taillon (.721), Garrett Richards (.829), Kyle Freeland (.813)
Bullpen: Ryan Pressly (.546), Jose Alvarez (.551), J.P. Feyereisen (.617), Paul Fry (.637), Michael King (.674), Heath Hembree (.712)
Projected Lineup: Buster Posey (C, .889), Jose Abreu (1B, .831), Franmil Reyes (RF, .846), Jorge Soler (LF, .749), Eduardo Escobar (2B, .786), Gio Urshela (3B, .720), Leury Garcia (SS, .711), Oscar Mercado/Kevin Pillar (CF, .817/.700)

Strengths: Morton is one of the best pitchers in the league, and should get several votes for Cy Young at the end of this season. Pressly (517/569 splits) and Alvarez (510/589) are both legitimate closers. Posey is one of the best-hitting catchers in the game, in a year in which very few catchers can actually hit above the MLB average.

The bullpen includes two "closers" with lefty Alvarez (510/589 splits) and righty Pressly (517/569), who have sub-600 splits against both left- and right-handers.

Weaknesses: The lineup against right-handers includes only two real weapons: Posey (.829 OPS) and Reyes (.832). No other batter in the lineup owns a split OPS above .800. The bottom-third of the lineup, overall, is below-average. Really, once you get past the cleanup spot in the lineup, you can breathe easy.

The defensive alignment looks problematic. Both Reyes and Soler are only rated in right field, and both are rated Pr. One of them will need to play left field to get both of their bats into the lineup, which means two-thirds of the outfield are poorly-rated.

The starting rotation rapidly falls apart after Morton. Taillon (733/712) is roughly league-average in terms of opponents OPS. The other two I have listed above are far below-average, although Freeland should benefit from the difference in ballpark factors. The problem is that Morton, Taillon, Richards, and Freeland only have 646 innings of usage this season, which puts this starting rotation roughly 300 innings away from being complete.

Outlook: A team with a weak starting rotation can excel if it has an excellent bullpen. A team with weak pitching can succeed with a strong offense, and vice versa. I don't see the Sovereigns starting rotation, bullpen, or offense as particular strong -- or weak. I see a team that looks, on paper, like a league-average, .500 ballclub. Of course, I have been wrong many, many times before. Too many times to count, really.

Historically, Tony Badger has been reluctant to wave the white flag and pack it in, midseason. If it comes to that this year, he has only a few options for marketable trade bait. Morton still has one year remaining on his contract, at $10 million. Pressly cannot be traded, but Alvarez can, and is arguably more valuable. The biggest trade chit, by far, would be Posey, who is a free agent at the end of this season, but has retired, regardless.

I don't believe it will come to that. I think Buckingham will remain close enough in the division and wildcard races that Badger will remain in the hunt. If it does come to that, however, he could reap a significant haul for the future.

Prediction: 2nd place. Despite all of their issues, the Sovereigns still have a solid team capable of winning more games than they lose this season. It may be a low bar to set, but it's higher than some other teams are facing at the moment.

South Philly Gritty

Owner: J.D. Luhning
2021 Record: 71-89 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Yu Darvish (.708), Shane McClanahan (.697), Yusei Kikuchi (.751), Michael Wacha (.784), Andrew Heaney (.804), J.T. Brubaker (.799)
Bullpen: Drew Steckenrider (.608), Raisel Iglesias (.610), Aaron Ashby (.613), Brett Martin (.686), Blake Parker (.714), Miguel Diaz (.727)
Projected Lineup: Robbie Grossman (RF, .772), Carlos Correa (SS, .850), C.J. Cron (1B, .905), Nolan Arenado (3B, .807), Lourdes Gurriel (LF, .785), Alex Kirilloff/Austin Meadows (CF, .780/.871), Ronald Torreyes/Cavan Biggio (2B, .755/.721), James McCann/Willians Astudillo (C, .743/.616)

Strengths: The top half of the lineup is rock-solid, with the surprising Grossman (.357 OBP) setting the table for the powerful trio of Correa (844/853 splits), Cron (977/877), and Arenado (931/778). Six different South Philly batters hit more than 20 home runs in MLB last year.

The left side of the infield includes two players with above-average range: Arenado (Ex) and Correa (Vg.) The bullpen includes several quality arms with plenty of usage available.

Weaknesses: The starting rotation really falls off a cliff after Darvish. McClanahan is the best of the lot, but he is limited to 135 innings. The rest of the rotation is below-average, to be kind. As good as the bullpen is, there are some issues there as well. Iglesias gives up a TON of home runs (1.4 per nine), and always has throughout his career. Ashby (875/568) has some drastic reverse splits. So does Parker (592/857).

Outlook: It has been a strange offseason for the Gritty. GM J.D. Luhning went Type H on a first baseman, Cron, despite the fact that one of the team's franchise players, Rowdy Tellez, only plays first base. While we should expect Cron's numbers to suffer, coming from Coors Field in MLB, we have seen Colorado players excel before in the BDBL. Still, the team will have no choice but to trade Cron next winter if Tellez rebounds.

The decision to sign Iglesias to a Type H contract was also a head-scratcher. At 32 years old, and with his inconsistent history, it is a huge risk to commit $12 million to him over the next two years. He really isn't needed this year if the team isn't planning to compete, anyway. If they are, then the presence of Steckenrider makes Iglesias extraneous anyway.

This team, as presently constituted, does not look good enough to finish with a winning record. The offense hit .243/.316/.416 as a team in MLB, which ranks 9th in the EL in OPS. The pitching staff ranks 11th out of 12 teams in the EL in ERA, 11th in CERA, and 11th in OPS allowed.

If Luhning decides to throw in the towel this season, his trade options are limited. He cannot trade Cron or Correa, as the former is a Type H and the latter is a franchise player. That leaves Arenado as the only possible trade bait offensively. His $15.5 million salary for 2023 would be a hard sell. On the pitching side, Darvish ($10M in 2023) and Steckenrider ($1.5M in '23) would be the easiest to move.

Prediction: 3rd place. If I had to choose a "surprise" team in 2022, that will enjoy far more success than I am predicting, it would probably be the Gritty. They have some players that are capable of performing well above their heads and making some unexpected noise in the division/wildcard races. It would not surprise me if that happened.

Great Lakes Sphinx

Owner: Scott Romonosky
2021 Record:  (102-58, 1st place)
Projected Rotation: Alex Wood (.680), Mike Minor (.750), Madison Bumgarner (.741), Mike Foltynewicz (.843), J.A. Happ (.851), Matt Harvey (.830)
Bullpen: Mitch White (.637), Emilio Pagan (.801), Anthony Bass (.743), Alex Colome (.740), Ross Detwiler (.764)
Projected Lineup: Luis Urias (SS, .789), Kolten Wong (2B, .783), Charlie Blackmon (RF, .761), Guillermo Heredia/Christian Yelich (LF, .757/.781), Yadier Molina/Will Smith (C, .851/.912), Luis Urias (3B, .789), Miguel Cabrera (1B, .701), ?? (CF)

Strengths: The catching platoon of Molina and Smith gives the Sphinx a very rare asset in 2022: catchers who can actually hit.

Weaknesses: The Great Lakes outfield is so barren, I couldn't even fill it out. I have no idea what this team will do in the outfield this season. They have plenty of players to fill that third outfield spot. The problem is that none of them can hit a lick: Jackie Bradley (528/490 splits), Guillermo Heredia (757/628 in 347 PA), and Jason Heyward (621/629).

Having one weak position in the lineup would be surmountable if the rest of the lineup were stronger than usual. It isn't. In fact, if you compared each spot in the Great Lakes lineup to the same spots league-wide, I would bet that the Sphinx own one of the lowest OPS's at each position.

I am never impressed with the Sphinx starting rotation, and they always prove me wrong by pitching miles above their heads. Even if these pitchers do the same, miles above their heads would be barely league-average. These bums are just horrible. Sorry.

Outlook: Looking at this roster, it is difficult to understand how the hell they won 102 games a year ago. Granted, Yelich's career has taken an unexpected nosedive. And granted, the team lost several key players (Josh Donaldson, Carlos Santana, Clayton Kershaw) to free agency. But still, it's difficult to see a 102-win team from what remains.

I say it every year, and every year the Sphinx prove me wrong. But I'm going to say it anyway: this is not a winning ballclub. There is simply no way this team finishes the 2022 season above .500. I know that this quote will be featured on the year-end Season Review, just before the lead-in to my story about how the Sphinx won 115 games en route to the Eck League championship.

Prediction: 4th place. Either Scott Romonosky has discovered some bug in the software that he isn't telling the rest of us about or the Sphinx somehow play way over their heads every year. I'm going with the former. Romonosky is holding out on us. Bastard.

D.C. Memorials

Owner: Adam Miner
2021 Record: 74-86 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Nathan Eovaldi (.696), Freddy Peralta (.561), Tyler Alexander (.735), Johnny Cueto (.801), Domingo German (.714), Luis Patino (.696)
Bullpen: Giovanny Gallegos (.551), Edwin Diaz (.580), Aaron Loup (.501), Chad Green (.622), Lou Trivino (.622), Diego Castillo (.623), Jake Diekman (.715)
Projected Lineup: Starling Marte (CF, .841), Willy Adames (SS, .818), Manny Machado (3B, .836), Tyler O'Neill (LF, .912), Mike Zunino/Dom Nunez (C, 1.287/.722), Matt Beaty/Bobby Bradley (1B, .909/.755), Jake Cronenworth (2B, .800), Yonanthan Daza/Rafael Ortega (RF, .728/.900)

Strengths: Only 36 pitchers in MLB '21 faced 200 or more batters and held them to an OPS of .580 or below. The Memorials bullpen includes three of them (Gallegos, Diaz, and Loup), and their starting rotation includes one more (Peralta.) Only the Salem Cowtippers (with five) can top that number. All three of those relievers can close against left- or right-handers, as each owns a sub-600 split against both sides. Trivino (.493 vs. RH) and Castillo (.522) are two more righty-killers out of the 'pen.

With a bullpen like that, you don't need much of a starting rotation, but the Memorials have a pair of aces in Eovaldi and Peralta. Eovaldi is not only an ace, but he's a workhorse as well, with over 200 innings of usage -- a true rarity in today's game.

The lineup is jam-packed with .800-OPS mashers. There isn't a weak spot from one through eight. The lineup against lefties is especially intimidating with two 1000+ OPS monsters, Zunino (1.287) and O'Neill (1.026).

Weaknesses: The lineup against right-handers isn't nearly as scary. That said, Ortega (.900), O'Neill (.888), and Marte (.878) are all capable of punishing righties. There are three others in the lineup with 800+ OPS's against righties, so maybe it is pretty scary after all.

The starting rotation, once you get past the front two, isn't great, but I think it's good enough given the quality of this bullpen and offense.

Outlook: This looks like a very strong team. It is not only strong enough to win this division, but it looks like it is well-positioned for the playoffs as well. The combination of two quality starters, a strong bullpen, and a lineup with no weaknesses (platoon or otherwise) has led to great success in the postseason. I expect this team to win this division rather easily, and then cause some major havoc in November.

One year ago, I predicted a first-place finish for this team and they finished below .500. That will not happen again, I promise.

Prediction: 1st place. Do you want to hear a crazy prediction? I think this D.C. team could win it all this year. They have all the elements I look for in a playoff team. They will win this division almost by default, so it all boils down to the random dice rolls in the Tournament of Randomness. I give D.C. a better-than-average chance of winning those dice rolls regardless of who they face. My official prediction: the D.C. Memorials are our 2022 BDBL champions.

South Carolina Sea Cats

Owner: Tony DeCastro
2021 Record: 72-88 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Julio Urias (.614), German Marquez (.699), Zac Gallen (.724), Kwang Hyun Kim (.686), Blake Snell (.692)
Bullpen: Andrew Chafin (.521), Garrett Crochet (.598), Jose Cisnero (.672), Phil Bickford (.630), Justin Dunn (.653), Hunter Strickland (.670)
Projected Lineup: Michael Brantley (RF, .799), Yasmani Grandal (C, .939), Ryan Zimmerman/Nate Lowe (1B, .901/.780), Brandon Lowe (LF, .863), Lewis Brinson/Adam Duvall (CF, .747/.827), Ozzie Albies (2B, .799), Starlin Castro/Kyle Seager (3B, .804/.736), Luis Garcia/Nico Hoerner (SS, .771/.800)

Strengths: The top of the Sea Cats rotation is excellent, with true-ace Urias backed by a very strong supporting cast. The bullpen is chock-full of useful arms as well. I expect this team to finish somewhere near the top of the ERA leader board by the end of the year.

PA-for-PA, Grandal is the best-hitting catcher in the game. Unfortunately, he is limited to 412 PA's this season. Including Grandal's 1.031 OPS against lefties, the Sea Cats lineup features three 900+ OPS bats against southpaws, with Albies (.940) and Zimmerman (.901) providing the other two. Against right-handers, South Carolina has also three bats with 900+ OPS's: Brandon Lowe (.956), Grandal (.909), and Brantley (.924).

The Chicago Black Sox are the only team in the league that hit more home runs in MLB last year. Four different Sea Cats hit 30+ homers in MLB, including Brandon Lowe (39), Duvall (38), Seager (35), and Albies (30). Playing in a home ballpark with HR factors of 123 and 110, the 'Cats should send a lot of balls over the fence this year.

Weaknesses: Brantley (575/924 splits) and Brandon Lowe (662/956) desperately need a platoon partner. The team's second-highest-paid player, Max Kepler (509/796), isn't even listed in that lineup above for that reason. There is nowhere to put him. For that reason, if you throw a right-hander at this ballclub, it will be smooth sailing once you get past those three 900+ OPS monsters mentioned above.

Outlook: This team could use a lefty-masher, but the offense as it stands should finish the season with an above-average number of runs scored. With an above-average pitching staff, this team should finish above .500. How many games above .500 depends on those random dice rolls.

This is somewhat of a make-or-break year for South Carolina. Brandon Lowe, Kepler, Grandal, Brantley, Chafin, Marquez, and Snell are all free agents at the end of this season. If a chapter or two passes and it looks like this team doesn't have the horses to compete, it would be wise to trade at least some of those guys for future needs. Even Urias, with only one year remaining under contract, would fetch a substantial return. GM Tony DeCastro has been reluctant to rebuild in the past, so I would be very surprised if that happened this year.

Prediction: 2nd place. The top ten players from the Sea Cats probably compare favorably to the top ten players from the Memorials, but the Memorials have far more depth. Teams need depth to win the 160-game regular season. I can easily see the Sea Cats posting a winning record in '22, for the first time since 2006, but I think it is probably a little too optimistic to expect more than that.

Niagara Locks

Owner: Mike Ranney
2021 Record: 78-82 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Pablo Lopez (.677), Eric Lauer (.640), Jordan Montgomery (.688), Anthony Senzatela (.749), Tyler Glasnow (.561)
Bullpen: Miguel Castro (.619), Yimi Garcia (.698), Sergio Romo (.709), Dillon Tate (.713)
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton (CF, 1.005), Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (1B, 1.002), Xander Bogaerts (SS, .863), Joey Gallo (RF, .808), Carson Kelly/Danny Jansen (C, 1.018/.864), Charlie Culberson/Jesus Sanchez (LF, .932/.810), Christian Arroyo/Ryan McMahon (2B, .885/.826), Wander F'ing Franco (3B, .810)

Strengths: There are only three players in the game with 250+ PA's and an overall OPS above 1.000. (Four if you count Juan Soto's .999 as close enough.) Niagara owns two of them. Playing in Niagara's tiny bandbox of a ballpark, Guerrero could very well post some of the best numbers in league history this year. A 60-home run season would not be a surprise. The top three hitters in this lineup cannot be matched by any other team in the league.

Weaknesses: So much attention (and salary) has been paid to the offense that the pitching staff feels like an afterthought. Mike Ranney spent just $8.4 million on his entire pitching staff, which is greater than only one other team in the league (the Darien Blue Wave.) In the case of both ballclubs, the lack of funding shows.

Niagara barely has enough innings usage (1,457) to get through the season. The "ace" of the rotation, Lopez, is limited to 113 innings -- roughly half a season. Lauer (131) and Glasnow (96) are limited as well. This means that Jose Urena (5.68 CERA, 940/740 splits in 100+ IP) and Jorge Lopez (6.25 CERA in 121+ IP) will likely need to spot-start unless the team acquires another pitcher.

The bullpen has some issues as well. Castro (583/655) is the closest the team has to a closer. He isn't bad, but he doesn't scream "closer," either.

Outlook: Niagara fans will enjoy watching Guerrero post some video game numbers this season. They will likely enjoy watching this offense score a whole lot of runs, especially at home. I'm not so sure Niagara fans will get the opportunity to enjoy watching their team play November baseball for the first time in the Ranney Era.

Mike Ranney paid a whopping $15.8 million to release several players on Cutdown Day. That decision left him with little money ($8.6 million) to spend on free agents, which is part of what led to the state of this pitching staff. The assumption must be that the Locks are in another rebuilding year as they wait for all of their young superstars to come of age.

The St. Louis Apostles ranked among the top three in our annual Farm Report six years in a row, from 2013 to 2018. They won the BDBL championship in 2018. The Los Altos Undertakers ranked among the top three four years in a row, from 2012 to 2015. They won the BDBL championship in 2015. And 2016. And 2017. The Niagara farm club has now ranked among the top five in our Farm Report a whopping ten years in a row. It seems like their first BDBL championship is long overdue. But it looks like it will be at least another year before that happens.

Prediction: 3rd place. Niagara's poor showing last year was among the most disappointing team performances in a year filled with disappointing team performances. If they finish with the same 78-82 record this year, I would consider that to be a success.

Highland Freedom

Owners: Bob Sylvester, Sr. (manager), Bobby Sylvester (GM)
2021 Record: 83-77 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Lucas Giolito (.671), Casey Mize (.716), Marco Gonzalez (.760), Patrick Corbin (.855), Mitch Keller (.877)
Bullpen: Aaron Bummer (.560), Devin Williams (.587), Jarlin Garcia (.635), Dillon Maples (.576), Hector Neris (.677), Alex Reyes (.609), Will Smith (.693)
Projected Lineup: Yoan Moncada (3B, .787), Teoscar Hernandez (RF, .870), Luis Robert/Mike Yastrzemski (CF, 1.235/.848), Adolis Garcia (LF, .741), Jared Walsh (1B, .850), Jorge Alfaro/Max Stassi (C, .735/.786), Keston Hiura (2B, .557), Andrelton Simmons (SS, .558)

Strengths: Giolito is a true ace, and the bullpen is solid.

Weaknesses: Everything else.

Outlook: Clearly, Team Sylvester is not making any reasonable attempt to compete in 2022. If that weren't clear enough, they made it extra clear by trading Salvador Perez and Trevor Bauer before Opening Day. The '22 team can barely field a warm body at each position, never mind a warm body that can play the game of baseball at an exceptional level.

Of course, that will all change very quickly. By this time next year, I fully expect to write about how absolutely dominant the Freedom have become, to the point where playing out the season will become a formality. Giolito has four more years under his contract, and is pitching in his prime. Robert and Jarred Kelenic should play a full season in MLB '22 (assuming there is a season), and still haven't entered the prime of their careers. Oneil Cruz and Carter Kieboom should improve in their sophomore seasons. Anthony Rendon is poised for a comeback season.

The last rebuilding period for this franchise lasted three years. They then won 90+ games two years in a row, including a BDBL title. Last year was supposed to have been a rebuilding year, but the team surprised themselves by being competitive, and eventually won the division title. I don't know how long this latest rebuilding project will last, but I know how it will end. You can't keep Team Sylvester down for long.

Prediction: 4th place. For now.

Charlotte Mustangs

Owner: Tony Chamra
2021 Record: 76-84 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Jose Berrios (.661), Lance McCullers (.628), Nick Pivetta (.731), Chris Flexen (.724), Paolo Espino (.757), Patrick Sandoval (.649)
Bullpen: Kenley Jansen (.501), Collin McHugh (.541), Tony Watson (.543), Austin Adams (.610), Daniel Hudson (.672), John King (.626), Tyler Kinley (.720)
Projected Lineup: Juan Soto (LF, .999), Yuli Gurriel (1B, .846), Alex Bregman (3B, .777), Nick Castellanos (RF, .939), Tommy Edman/Ramon Urias (.794/.822), Nick Madrigal/Luis Arraez (2B, .989/.756), Daulton Varsho/Alex Verdugo (CF, .819/.893), Elias Diaz (C, .774)

Strengths: Tony Chamra paid an arm and a leg for a world-class bullpen, and dammit he got one. Jansen, who is now signed through age 36, heads a very strong group of relievers that should ensure Charlotte's late innings remain mostly drama-free. The starting rotation is very good, led by a pair of aces in Berrios and McCullers. The Mustangs own a true rarity in today's game: four starters who can throw more than 150 innings each -- and all four are above-average.

Soto is one of the best players in the game. Only two players in BDBL history have ever posted a .500 on-base percentage in a season: Hall of Famer Barry Bonds (three times) and Jason Giambi. Soto could plausibly join those two at the end of this season.

In terms of MLB '21 stats, the Mustangs own the highest batting average and on-base percentage as a team. Castellanos owns a 900+ OPS against both sides. Gurriel (.925) and Madrigal (.989) also crush lefties. Against right-handers, Castellanos (.936), Soto (1.073), and Verdugo (.893) are major threats in this lineup.

Weaknesses: The defense in center field is subpar. That's all I've got.

Outlook: The Mustangs not only missed the playoffs last year, but they finished below .500 despite high preseason expectations. Tony Chamra has done everything in his power to ensure that doesn't happen again. He had $16.2 million to spend this winter, and he went all-in to fill those two holes at first base (Gurriel at $8 million) and closer (Jansen at $6.5 million.) The end result is a lineup void of any substantial holes and a pitching staff that ranks among the best in the league -- at least, on paper.

As always, it seems, the division race will be extremely competitive in the Hrbek Division this year. Charlotte has their work cut out for them. I think they are up to the task.

Prediction: 1st place. The competition in this division is fierce, to say the least. If the Mustangs perform as expected, then they should have no problem winning a spot in the postseason, whether it is as the division winner or the wildcard. The question is how far this team can progress in the Tournament of Randomness. We all should know by now how unpredictable that is. I think the Mustangs are among the five strongest teams in the league this year. What does that mean? Historically speaking, not much in the end.

Chicago Black Sox

Owner: John Gill
2021 Record: 100-60 (1st place, Eck League champions)
Projected Rotation: Sandy Alcantara (.643), Ian Anderson (.671), Taijuan Walker (.694), Sean Manaea (.719), Jon Lester (.828)
Bullpen: Liam Hendriks (.517), Pierce Johnson (.677), A.J. Minter (.644), Brad Hand (.728), Ryne Harper (.687), Ryan Helsley (.668)
Projected Lineup: Fernando Tatis, Jr. (SS, .975), Bryce Harper (RF, 1.044), A.J. Pollock (CF, .892), Kris Bryant (RF, .835), Kyle Schwarber (LF, .928), Anthony Rizzo (1B, .802), Willson Contreras (C, .778), Evan Longoria (3B, .833), Javier Baez (2B, .813)

Strengths: Once again, the Chicago Black Sox are virtually guaranteed to score more than 900 runs this season. This lineup is absolutely insane. It is so jam-packed, and there is so much defensive versatility, that I could have arranged the above players in several other ways that would have made just as much sense. I could not even find room for Gavin Lux (.747 vs. RH), Will Myers (828/746 splits), or Jake Rogers (.909 vs. LH).

Alcantara is a true ace, and one of only four pitchers in all of baseball that tossed more than 200 innings last year. Anderson, Walker, and Manaea are solid mid-rotation arms. Hendriks is one of the best relievers in the game, and he has an excellent supporting cast in that bullpen.

Weaknesses: I did not even realize until I wrote this report that Harper posted an OPS of "only" .798 against southpaws last year. His OPS against right-handers (1.155) is off the charts, but it appears he has an easily-exploitable weakness. This makes me wonder how many left-handers he will face this year.

Rizzo (901/733) has a splits issue as well, but it isn't as if Chicago doesn't have any other options at first base. The most logical move would be to shift Bryant to first, and let Myers get some at-bats in the outfield.

Outlook: Once again, it looks as though the Black Sox will be very competitive. You have to think that John Gill must spend a lot of time shaking his head, asking what more he could possibly do to win a BDBL trophy. Trust me, I know the feeling.

The Chicago starting rotation is comparable with Charlotte's. Charlotte owns the better bullpen of the two contenders. Chicago's offense is leaps and bounds better than Charlotte's -- which is pretty good itself! In terms of MLB '21 numbers, Chicago owns the highest OPS (.810) in the BDBL, with Charlotte ranking #3. In terms of OPS allowed, Charlotte ranks #7, while Chicago ranks #16. All things considered, I have to give the nod to Charlotte, but it's such a slight nod that luck will likely be the greatest factor in the outcome of this division race.

Prediction: 2nd place. Or 1st place. Honestly, it's a toss-up. I'm giving Charlotte the slight edge, but a handful of random dice rolls could change that in a hurry. This is why we bother playing out the season instead of declaring a league champion based on how they look on paper. Regardless of which team wins this division, the second-place team is all but guaranteed to win the wildcard.

Myrtle Beach Hitmen

Owners: Mitch Gill (GM), Ryne Gill (manager)
2021 Record: 59-101 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Robbie Ray (.667), Max Fried (.635), Sonny Gray (.687), Christian Javier (.655), Tarik Skubal (.782), Alex Cobb (.645)
Bullpen: Luis Cessa (.627), Kyle Funkhouser (.674), T.J. McFarland (.655), Steven Okert (.649), Drew Smith (.676), Brent Suter (.714), Domingo Tapia (.571), Zach Thompson (.675)
Projected Lineup: Brandon Nimmo (CF, .838), Ketel Marte/Jean Segura (2B, 1.171/.736), Jose Ramirez (3B, .893), Rhys Hoskins (1B, .864), Dylan Carlson/Michael Conforto (RF, .923/.792), Andrew Vaughn/Ketel Marte (RF, .938/792), Tyler Stephenson (C, .797), Brendan Rodgers (SS, .798)

Strengths: The reigning American League Cy Young winner is featured atop the Myrtle Beach rotation, along with three above-average arms. The Akron Ryche own the only other team in the BDBL that features five starters with an opposing OPS below .700.

The Myrtle Beach lineup is filled with quality hitters from one-through-eight. Believe it or not, the Hitmen can build a lineup that includes a player with an 800+ OPS against lefties in all eight spots. Against right-handers, they can "only" bat four.

Weaknesses: The bullpen lacks a traditional shut-down closer, although Cessa (642/614 splits) should be good enough to get the job done. Teams could (and probably will) take advantage of the platoon splits in the offense by loading up on right-handed pitching against the Hitmen. That will somewhat neutralize the offense, and place extra pressure on that bullpen.

Outlook: Wow, has this franchise come a long way! After five consecutive 100-loss seasons, and -- get this -- TWENTY-TWO consecutive losing seasons, we may actually see this franchise finish with a winning record! This roster, on paper, certainly looks like a winning team. The only problem is that they play in the toughest division in the league, so winning a spot in the playoffs will be incredibly difficult.

I think the Gill brothers are up to the challenge. They have plenty of weapons at their disposal, plenty of trade bait if needed, and more than enough motivation to win. Comparing the Hitmen with the Mustangs and Black Sox, it appears that Myrtle Beach is the third-best of the three. The margin of error is so small, however, that it is anyone's division to win. Watching these three teams battle for the Hrbek Division title promises to be the highlight of the 2022 season. I can't wait to see it.

Prediction: 3rd place, but don't quote me on that. Yes, I realize that as soon as I hit the publish button, my words become immortal. Still, this division race is nearly impossible for a mortal to predict. My Ouija board is busted, and my Magic 8 Ball keeps telling me to ask again later. I've run out of scientific options.

Cleveland Rocks

Owner: Mike Stein
2021 Record: 88-72 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Carlos Rodon (.560), Clayton Kershaw (.636), Jake Odorizzi (.735), Kyle Hendricks (.811), Drew Smyly (.806)
Bullpen: Dylan Floro (.576), Ryan Burr (.656), Taylor Rogers (.651), Reynaldo Lopez (.667), Chasen Shreve (.681)
Projected Lineup: Luke Voit/Dan Vogelbach (1B, .755/.788), Hunter Renfroe (RF, .816), Gary Sanchez (C, .730), Joc Pederson (CF, .732), Tyrone Taylor (LF, .778), Gleyber Torres (2B, .697), Joey Wendle (SS, .741), Ha-Seong Kim (3B, .622)

Strengths: Rodon and Kershaw are a formidable duo atop the rotation. A formidable duo, indeed.

Weaknesses: Both Rodon and Kershaw are limited in usage, and the rotation really falls apart after those two. Hendricks and Smyly are nothing more than warm bodies filling usage requirements. The bullpen has some decent pieces, but it isn't strong enough to make up for all the deficiencies in the rotation.

This lineup is a mess. It has no leadoff hitter, and the middle of the order isn't nearly as scary as the Rocks team name. There are several players (Torres, Wendle, Sanchez) who need a platoon partner. The shortstop and third base positions are filled with bad options.

Outlook: I assume that Mike Stein is in rebuilding mode. How could he not be? Given that, he took some huge gambles in the auction when he bid $9 million on Kershaw and $5.5 million on Stephen Strasburg. Kershaw was forced to miss the entire postseason last year because of forearm and elbow discomfort. He did not undergo Tommy John surgery, but it seems like that would be within the realm of possibility in 2022. Strasburg has Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, which completely derailed the careers of Matt Harvey, Chris Carpenter, Chris Archer, Phil Hughes, and Tyson Ross, among many others.

Unfortunately, the Rocks don't have a lot of trade bait to offer if/when the wheels come off the bus and the white flag is raised. Floro probably has the most trade value. Free agents-to-be Sanchez and Renfroe probably could be moved as well. That's about it, really. It looks like another lost year in Cleveland.

Prediction: 4th place. On the plus side, Mike Stein will have plenty of time to update his ranking of scariest team names. Maybe he could squeeze in some time to rank the league's most beautiful ballparks, best logos, and greatest coaching staffs. (Hint, hint!)