January, 2022

2022 Draft Day Preview

2021 was an unusual year, to say the least. The weirdness of the '21 season began in the winter auction, where two players went for more than $20 million -- something that hadn't happened in any of the previous eleven auctions. Granted, the circumstances of both bids were historically unusual. Justin Verlander went for $21 million only because his injury status guaranteed that he would be a one-year commitment. Mike Trout went for a BDBL-record $26.5 million because he is a once-in-a-generation talent in the prime of his career. Oh, and also because Lee Scholtz and Tony Badger are completely insane.

The BDBL had been relatively frugal in recent years leading up to that '21 auction. The question we face in 2022 is whether or not we see a return to "normality" or whether we continue to spend our fake money like a coked-up Hunter Biden in a whorehouse.

What are the strengths of this year's auction class?

If you are in the market for a power hitter, you are in luck. The auction (and draft) have plenty of sluggers to choose from. Joey Votto (36 HR), Jorge Polanco (33), Brandon Belt (29), Avisail Garcia (29), C.J. Cron (28), Justin Turner (27), and Trevor Story (24) are all available to the highest bidder. Of that lot, only Polanco (age 28) and Story (29) are on the "right" side of age 30, but that is typical of any auction class.

Relievers are also in abundance in this auction class. In fact, I don't know if we have ever seen a better market for relief pitchers than this one. Kenley Jansen (69 IP, 546/456 splits), Blake Treinen (72+, 496/523), Craig Kimbrel (59+, 506/521), Joe Kelly (44, 555/535), Ryan Pressly (64, 517/.569), Jose Alvarez (64+, 510/589), Andrew Kittredge (71+, 649/567), Luke Jackson (63+, 576/632), Dylan Floro (64, 645/515), Matt Barnes (54+, 576/670), and Raisel Iglesias (70, 641/585) are all capable of filling the role of closer. In most years, we see only a handful of closer-worthy relievers in the auction.

If you are in rebuilding mode, and looking toward 2023, this may be the best auction class you could ever hope to see. Stephen Strasburg, Noah Syndergaard, Anthony Rendon, and Chris Sale all have close to zero value in 2022, but are fully-capable of becoming major assets in 2023. This could be a golden opportunity to snatch them up at a discount.

What are the weaknesses?

If you need innings...best of luck to you. 40-year-old Adam Wainwright (206+, 2.67 CERA) is the only pitcher in the entire auction and draft with 200+ innings in MLB '21. He is arguably the best free agent starting pitcher available this year, but does anyone really want to pay $15 million-plus for a 42-year-old in year two of that contract? It will be very interesting to see how high the bidding goes for Wainwright.

After Wainwright, the auction includes Nathan Eovaldi (182+ IP, 3.24 CERA), Gerrit Cole (181+, 2.77), Sean Manaea (179+, 3.85), Marcus Stroman (179, 3.85), Zack Greinke (171, 3.68), Rich Hill (158+, 3.80), Eduardo Rodriguez (157+, 4.41), and Steven Matz (150+, 4.18). And that's it for starting pitchers with 150+ innings pitched, as far as the auction goes.

If you need a catcher, there is only one (Yan Gomes: 375 PA, 890/634 splits) available in the auction. If you need a third baseman, there are only two in the auction rated at that position (with any 2022 value): Justin Turner (612 PA, 818/837 splits) and Chris Taylor (582, 897/733).

What about the draft class?

Adam Duvall (555 PA, 610/827 splits, 38 HR), Tommy Pham (561, 689/735), Patrick Corbin (171+ IP, 5.47 CERA), Tyler Anderson (167, 3.87), and Ryan Yarbrough (155, 4.08) just missed the auction cut. They represent the best of what appears to be the weakest draft class in recent memory.

The draft includes many of the same types of hidden gems that you'll find in any draft class: platoon players with drastic splits, short-usage superstars, 2023 fliers coming off major injuries and looking to come back, young players given a cup of coffee last September, etc.

The most jarring aspect of this draft class is the dearth of decent hitters. Among all hitters with 300+ PA's in this draft class, only two (Duvall and Ji-Man Choi) own an overall OPS above .750. Only four others clock in above .740. In total, only twenty hitters in the draft own an OPS above .700. That is incredible, given the Era of Offense we are experiencing.

How much money is out there this year?

Last year, more money was spent in the auction than in any year since 2004. It was the second-highest total ever spent in the auction. Auction spending as a percentage of the total was the highest it has been in nearly a dozen years. But again, 2021 was an outlier in many ways, and it seems unlikely that trend will continue.

The numbers this year are right around the historical average. We're looking at $539.5 million in total spending, which is only around 4% higher than both the all-time average and the ten-year average. This year's spending per player is around 11% higher than the all-time average, but only about 9% higher than the ten-year average.

Which teams will be spending all that money?

This year's high rollers are Cleveland ($41.3M), Salem ($37.2), Los Altos ($36), North Carolina ($31.2), and Las Vegas ($31.1.) The Rocks somehow need to add an entire starting rotation with all of their dough. Their rotation currently consists of just Carlos Rodon (132+ IP), Jake Odorizzi (104+), Alex Cobb (93+), and Eli Morgan (89+). They need about 500 more innings.

Salem has several major holes to fill as well, in their infield, outfield, and starting rotation. Los Altos represents the wildcard in this field. Should we believe Jeff Paulson's "Aww Shucks" lamentations about not being good enough to compete this year? Or is this a classic rope-a-dope? North Carolina and Vegas could quickly become nuisances with all of the money they have to spend this winter.

The Akron Ryche are the highest rollers per capita. They're looking at a $28 million budget and just five spots to fill -- an average of $5.6 million per player. Charlotte ($5.4M) is right behind them, with Los Altos ($5.1) also looking foreboding.

At the shallow end of the swimming pool, we have the Ravenswood Infidels, who have a complete roster already, and just $8.1 million in total spending cash. Niagara ($8.6), Darien ($10.8), South Carolina ($11.8), and Bear Country ($15) will mostly be sitting on the sidelines during the auction feeding frenzy. After taking nearly $16 million in penalties, Niagara has the lowest ($800K) amount of money to spend per player.

Of course, the giant fly in the 2022 ointment is the presence of reigning champion Billy Baseball, who is holding $19 million in spending cash (an average of just $1 million per player), with an entire starting rotation and half of his lineup left to fill. How he will get that done is anyone's guess, but it sure will be interesting to watch!

Should I save my money for 2023?

At first glance, it looks as though 2023's draft class will be weaker than this one. A handful of major superstars in this class could make a huge impact, but each one is surrounded with questions heading into the 2022 MLB season. Is Christian Yelich done, or will he bounce back into MVP form? Is Jacob deGrom healthy? Is Max Scherzer too old, as Matt Clemm insists?

Aside from Yelich, the 2023 class will also include Freddie Freeman, Yasmani Grandal, Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Manny Machado, J.D. Martinez, Jose Altuve, Jose Abreu, Mitch Haniger, Eduardo Escobar, Gary Sanchez, Josh Bell, Josh Donaldson, Whit Merrifield, Max Kepler, and Brandon Lowe. As usual with every free agent class, each and every one of these hitters is on the downside of his career, but could still be useful for another year or three.

In addition to deGrom and Scherzer, the starting pitching class will also include Blake Snell, Kevin Gausman, John Means, Frankie Montas, Joe Musgrove, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Anthony DeSclafani, and Mike Minor.

Bullpen arms will include Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman, Corey Knebel, Edwin Diaz, and Chad Green.