March, 2022

2022 BDBL Farm Report

Thanks to the lockout, this year's farm report is being published later than ever. It's okay, though, because it gave me time to add a little "bonus" to this year's report. Scroll to the bottom for that bonus. Or, take your time and savor each and every word of this painstakingly-crafted farm report. It's up to you.

Our "panel of experts" this year are the same as always: MLB.com, FanGraphs, and Baseball America. In case the newbies need a lesson on how this works, I award 100 points to the #1 prospect on each of those lists, 99 points to #2, and so on, down to one point for prospect #100. Then I add up all the points and voila! A farm report is born!

#1 Highland Freedom
Ranked prospects: C.J. Abrams (11), Oneil Cruz (13), Henry Davis (24), Brett Baty (34), Nick Gonzales (53), Royce Lewis (61), Sixto Sanchez (64), Edward Cabrera (67)
Unranked prospects: Joe Gray, Jr., Blaze Jordan, Brandon Mayea, Colson Montgomery, Joey Estes, Brendan McKay, Roki Sasaki, Forrest Whitley, Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Bobby Sylvester built four #1-ranked farm systems, including three in a row from 2014-16, as the owner of the currently-named D.C. Memorials. He has now built a fifth #1-ranked farm as the GM of the Freedom franchise. Not even BDBL legend Jeff Paulson himself can boast of owning that record. Highland's top three prospects were all acquired via trade over the past two years. Abrams and Davis were added this winter, and Cruz was one of the younger Sylvester's first Freedom acquisitions last winter.

Abrams is no stranger to this list. He has been a top-25 prospect in each of the past three seasons. Both he and Cruz missed significant time last year due to injuries. Cruz became the tallest shortstop in MLB history when he made his debut last year. He may eventually switch positions because of that, but regardless of where he plays, he will mash. This is highly likely to be his final appearance in this report. Davis was the #1 overall pick in last year's MLB draft, and will likely move quickly up the ladder and become Cruz's MLB teammate sooner than later.

Lewis missed the entire season to a torn ACL in 2021, and hasn't played a single game since 2019. He was a top-10 prospect (#6 in 2019) the last time he played ball. MLB.com likes Gonzales (yet another Pittsburgh prospect) so much, they ranked him #20. In contrast, FanGraphs ranked him at #105 (too low to qualify for this report.) Both praise his bat speed and power potential, and both express concerns about his sky-high whiff rate of nearly 30% last year.

The unranked group includes two of Japan's best pitchers, Sasaki and Yamamoto. Both are under the age of 25, and both are unlikely to come to the U.S. for several more years.

#2 Charlotte Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Julio Rodriguez (3), Francisco Alvarez (8), Marcelo Mayer (13), Jackson Jobe (43), George Valera (75), Miguel Vargas (79), Tyler Freeman (86), Owen White (113), Blake Walston (120), Harry Ford (122)
Unranked prospects: Brock Jones, Kyren Paris, Felix Valerio, J.J. Goss, Gunnar Hoglund

This is the highest-ranked Mustangs farm system since Tony Chamra rejoined the league in 2014. Rodriguez is the highest-ranked Mustangs farmhand since Addison Russell in 2015. (Let's hope Ju-Ro works out a little better than Ad-Russ.) If we go back to Chamra's first go-around from 2001-12, the old Villanova Mustangs franchise owned two #1-ranked farm systems in 2004-05. Casey Kotchman and Andy Marte were their top-ranked prospects at that time.

Rodriguez had another monster year last year, and looks like a future perennial all-star. Word out of spring training is that he could possibly make the team on Opening Day. Alvarez is a hit-first catcher with tremendous pop (24 homers in a very tough home ballpark) and decent-enough skills behind the plate to remain there. Mayer was the fourth-overall pick in last year's MLB draft. He wasted no time proving that he belongs in pro ball. The hype machine has declared him to have "Corey Seager's bat and Brandon Crawford's glove."

Jobe was the only other Charlotte prospect who earned a top-100 ranking by all three of our experts. He was selected just ahead of Mayer in last year's draft, giving Charlotte two of the top four picks in the draft. He has yet to play a game in pro ball, but his scouting report suggests his fastball/slider combo will enable him to move quickly up the ladder. Valera (#47 by MLB.com) and Vargas (#40 by BA) earned some top-50 love this year.

#3 Darien Blue Wave
Ranked prospects: Riley Greene (5), Noelvi Marte (12), Marco Luciano (13), George Kirby (22), Korey Lee (95), J.J. Bleday (98), Jarren Duran (104), Emerson Hancock (110)
Unranked prospects: Jordyn Adams, Max Clark, Vladi M. Guerrero, Korey Lee, Matthew Allan, Dylan Lesko, Kumar Rocker, Jordan Wicks

For the third straight year, the Darien Blue Wave own a top-three BDBL farm club. Greene rose from #26 a year ago to a top-five ranking after an impressive showing at the AA and AAA levels last year. He has excellent power and speed, but tends to strike out a lot. He is the highest-ranked Darien farm player since Lee Scholtz took over the franchise in 2019. Incredibly enough, Greene is only the second top-five farmhand ever owned by this franchise in 24 years. (The other was Amed Rosario in 2017.)

Marte and Luciano were both signed as 16-year-olds out of Latin America in 2018. Both signed for massive signing bonuses. Both play shortstop. Both are 20 years old and played all of last season at the A level. Neither is likely to remain at shortstop as they advance up the ladder, but both will rake no matter where they play.

Kirby was ranked as high as #12 (BA) and as low as #32 (MLB.com.) He has a rare combination of pinpoint control and the ability to throw a baseball upwards of 100 mph. The unranked group is filled with lottery tickets that could either pay huge dividends or end up as wastes of roster space. The biggest mystery prize of the group is Rocker, who was drafted at #10 overall last year, failed his physical, decided not to return to Vanderbilt, and is now in prospect limbo, possibly ending up with an independent league as a draft showcase.

#4 Lake Norman Monsters
Ranked prospects: Hunter Greene (26), Cole Winn (50), D.L. Hall (52), Gunnar Henderson (58), Colton Cowser (67), Brady House (69), Elly De La Cruz (71), Taj Bradley (78), Brandon Williamson (83), Coby Mayo (98), Ivan Herrera (104), Justin Foscue (118)
Unranked prospects: Walker Jenkins, Jordan Westburg, Norge Vera

The Monsters lead the league with twelve ranked prospects -- two more than Charlotte. Their top three prospects are all pitchers, and all were selected in the first round of the MLB draft. After a two-year layoff due to injury and the pandemic, Greene posted some impressive numbers at the Double-A level. Triple-A proved to be a bit more of a challenge. His 80-grade fastball returned after Tommy John surgery. At worst, he could be a lights-out closer in his prime. He, Winn, and Hall all have frontline starter upside.

Henderson, the team's top-ranked hitting prospect, is still raw, but has gobs of potential to become a middle-of-the-lineup shortstop in the big leagues. Cowser was the fifth overall pick in last year's MLB draft, and had a very strong pro debut. Bradley (#1) and De La Cruz (#6) were both early selections in our winter farm draft last January. De La Cruz is the highest-ranked prospect taken in that draft.

Lake Norman's second pick in our winter draft, Jenkins, won't be eligible for the MLB draft until 2023. He is currently ranked (by FanGraphs) as the #4 prospect in that draft.

#5 North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs
Ranked prospects: Alek Thomas (23), Diego Cartaya (25), Bryson Stott (42), Max Meyer (51), Kyle Harrison (70), Michael Harris (71), Matt Brash (82)
Unranked prospects: Nick Allen, Jesus Galiz, Sam Huff, Luis Rodriguez, Arol Vera, Ethan Hankins, Andrew Painter, Jonathan Stiever, Simeon Woods Richardson

Two of the top five farm systems in the BDBL are in the McGowan Division. Should I be worried about that? This is the first top-five ranking for this franchise since way back in 2006. (That was before the first iPhone was released, folks!) Thomas is the highest-ranked Pig since Willy Adames (#21 in 2018.) He worked all the way up to Triple-A last year at the age of 21. In his prime, he should be a .300 hitter from the left-hand side, with 15-20 home run potential, good on-base skills, and decent speed.

Cartaya needs a lot more polish, but looks like he will become a bat-first MLB catcher at some point in the near future. Stott has a somewhat similar profile to Thomas, but at the shortstop position. Meyer, the third overall pick in last year's MLB draft, had no problem whatsoever facing Double-A hitting. I see no reason to believe he won't become a frontline MLB starter sooner than later.

FanGraphs ranked Harrison in their top 40 at #38. He needs to work on finding the strike zone a little more often, but has the stuff to be at least a mid-rotation starter.

#6 Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Grayson Rodriguez (5), Anthony Volpe (8), Jack Leiter (20), Nolan Gorman (32)
Unranked prospects: Yasel Antuna, Hayden Dunhurst, Kody Hoese, Bo Naylor, Ronnier Quintero, Drew Romo, Corbin Clouse, Andry Lara, Jared Shuster, Blade Tidwell

The Flamingos franchise has never owned two top-10 prospects until now. Highland, Darien, and Vegas are the only three franchises with four top-40 prospects this year. Rodriguez is the highest-ranked Vegas prospect since Demon Young (#2 in 2007.) He is the highest-ranked pitching prospect in the game, and is well-deserving of that title. He had a monster year in 2021, striking out 121 batters in 80 innings at the Double-A level at the age of 21. He has basically thrown one full season (216 innings) in the minor leagues, and his numbers are absolutely ridiculous: 132 H, 14 HR, 70 BB, 310 K, 2.41 ERA.

I am always shocked to see a top-ranked Yankees prospect who is not a member of the Buckingham Sovereigns. Volpe came out of nowhere last year (he wasn't even ranked on this page a year ago) and had one of the best seasons ever for a 20-year-old shortstop prospect: .294/.423/.604 in 412 AB's, with 35 doubles, 6 triples, and 27 homers. Oh, he also stole 33 bases and walked 78 times with "only" 101 K's. The kid is an absolute stud, and the heir apparent to longtime franchise player Francisco Lindor in Las Vegas.

Leiter hasn't even thrown a pitch in pro baseball yet, but already he's ranked among the top-25 by all three of our panel of experts. He whiffed 179 batters in 110 innings (nearly 15 per nine) in his final year with Vanderbilt University before he was selected #2 overall in the MLB draft. The future 1-2 punch of Rodriguez and Leiter is truly scary. Gorman looks like he could be an offense-first Chase Utley-like big league second baseman in the near future.

#7 South Loop Furies
Ranked prospects: Brennan Davis (18), Nick Lodolo (34), Josh Lowe (39), Shea Langeliers (56), Roansy Contreras (62), Kevin Alcantara (115), Heliot Ramos (121)
Unranked prospects: Bryan Acuna, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Xavier Edwards, Pablo Guerrero, Drew Waters, Nick Bitsko, Bryce Elder, Ethan Small

South Loop's fourth straight rebuilding effort has netted four more ranked prospects to the list above. Davis is now the highest-ranked South Loop prospect since Noah Syndergaard (#10) way back in 2015. He is a solid all-around outfielder with above-average power, speed, and defense. This franchise's top-ranked prospect for the past two years, Waters, dropped completely off the ranked list this year.

Lodolo has been plagued by injuries in his pro career, but has looked good when he's been healthy enough to pitch. Lowe looks like a future platoon hitter with power unless he can figure out how to hit lefties. Langeliers was ranked as high as #54 (BA) and as low as #70 (FanGraphs.) For now, he looks like a glove-first catcher who can hit for occasional power. Contreras and Alcantara are both former Yankees prospects (which means they were both former Sovereigns prospects.) Contreras could make his way into the Pirates bullpen shortly. Alcantara is still very raw and years away from contributing.

#8 Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Gabriel Moreno (7), Mick Abel (43), Eury Perez (48), Keibert Ruiz (73), Curtis Mead (84), Greg Jones (96), Jose Miranda (97), Joe Ryan (110), Josh Winder (117)
Unranked prospects: Korry Howell, Elehuris Montero, Juan Yepez, Kyle Bradish, Jake Eder, Carmen Mlodzinski, Cole Sands

Moreno rocketed up this ranking over the past year. He was ranked all the way at the bottom (#125) a year ago. Today, he's a consensus top-10 prospect. A lot can happen in only one year! In Moreno's case, what happened was he hit the crap out of the ball for about a month. Playing most of the year at the Double-A level, he hit a combined .367/.434/.626 last season, with 8 homers in only 139 at-bats (37 games.) He then followed that with impressive stints in the Arizona Fall League and Venezuelan Winter League.

Abel is ranked as high as #20 (FanGraphs) and as low as #81 (MLB.com.) FanGraphs likes his size and arm strength, and is banking on his ability to refine his command as he grows into his body. MLB.com is more hesitant to bank on that lack of command just yet. Perez was one of the fastest-rising stars of the low minors last year. He has grown into a monster since signing as a 16-year-old with Miami. He had an outstanding pro debut last year (a 108/26 K/BB ratio in 78 innings.) If he can continue that trajectory, Akron could have a future ace on their hands.

Ruiz's ranking is a function of the fact that our panel of experts have different eligibility criteria. Ruiz ranked #11 on BA's list, but wasn't even ranked by the other two. He has had only 96 at-bats at the MLB level, so it seems like all three should have included him. In any case, Baseball America predicts big things for Ruiz in 2022 now that he's left Will Smith's shadow in L.A.

I would comment about some of the other guys on this farm club, but I've never heard of any of them.

#9 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Shane Baz (10), Nick Yorke (30), Cade Cavalli (40), Ronny Mauricio (74), Jordan Balazovic (104), Joey Wiemer (108)
Unranked prospects: Alexander Canario, Heriberto Hernandez, Mason Martin, Garrett Mitchell, Lolo Sanchez, Braden Schewmake, Tanner Burns, Tahnaj Thomas

This is our 23rd annual BDBL Farm Report. The Sea Cats franchise, which has been owned by the same guy for all 23 seasons, has ranked among the top ten in this report fourteen times -- over 60% of that period. That is truly impressive! The last time the Sea Cats owned a top-10 pitching prospect, it was Julio Urias (20015-16), who is currently South Carolina's ace. Baz has the stuff to take over right where Urias left off. He already received his big league cup of coffee last year, and will likely not pitch a single inning in the minors this year. Fun fact: 12 major leaguers threw 100+ fastballs last year and averaged at least 97 mph and 11.4 inches or less in vertical movement. Baz is part of that group, along with Aroldis Chapman, Gerrit Cole, and Jacob deGrom.

Yorke came out of absolutely nowhere, from the unranked group a year ago to the top-30 in only one year. He hit an astounding .325/.412/.516 in his pro debut, making him only the ninth teenager over the past 20 years to break .300/.400/.500 in a full season. The opinions on Cavalli vary widely. Baseball America (#27) and MLB.com (#39) were mostly in agreement, while FanGraphs ranked him all the way down at #74. FG expresses concern about his college injury track record and a violent arm action, suggesting he may be better suited to relief.

Mauricio posted an OBP of just .296 last year, which is consistent with his career average of .302. He has a plus arm, but otherwise gets mediocre scouting grades across the board. I don't really get his top-75 ranking here.

#10 South Philly Gritty
Ranked prospects: Reid Detmers (27), Matthew Liberatore (49), Aaron Ashby (57), Bryan Rocchio (63), Jeremy Pena (65), Nate Pearson (92), Matt McLain (115)
Unranked prospects: Gilberto Jimenez, Bayron Lora, Erick Pena, Ethan Wilson, Jackson Rutledge, Kevin P. Smith

The South Philly franchise has ranked among the top ten in eight out of the past twelve seasons. For the past two seasons, their #1 prospect has been Pearson, who has now fallen all the way down to #92 thanks to a never-ending series of injuries. The good news is that none of those injuries were arm-related. The bad news is that he's only pitched a grand total of 188 innings over five years. Staying healthy is a skill.

The new #1 prospect for the Gritty is Detmers, who has already received a big league audition just two years after being drafted in the first round in the 2020 MLB draft. He got beat up a bit in the big leagues, but that isn't unusual for a top pitching prospect. He should get a shot at the rotation out of spring training, especially with the Angels employing a six-man rotation. Two southpaws, Liberatore and Ashby, round out the top three. Liberatore relies on control and command, while Ashby relies on an assortment of off-speed pitches. Both project to be mid-rotation starters.

Rocchio is arguably the most intriguing prospect on the Gritty farm. He just turned 21 this past January, and yet has already held his own for two months at the Double-A level. He isn't a big guy, but has enough power potential to hit 15-20 homers. He's a switch hitter who can play multiple defensive positions. He has good speed and good baseball instincts. Although he doesn't excel at any specific facet of the game, he is a complete, well-rounded, ballplayer.

#11 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Josh Jung (19), Luis Campusano (33), Nick Pratto (43), Vidal Brujan (59), Steve Kwan (90), Ryan Pepiot (128)
Unranked prospects: Luisangel Acuna, Jay Allen, Rodrick Arias, Mario Feliciano, Khalil Lee, Everson Pereira, Seiya Suzuki, Cristian Vaquero, Matt Canterino, Tommy Romero

The man who will soon be known as "Jace's big brother" leads the Undertakers farm with a top-20 ranking. A first-round pick in the 2019 MLB draft (8th overall), Jung is moving quickly up the ladder thanks to his contact, power, and defensive versatility. In his prime, he should hit .300 with 25+ homers on an annual basis. FanGraphs is so high on him, they ranked him among their top-ten (#9.)

It's possible -- probable, even -- that Jung and Campusano will both graduate from this list by this time next year. If Jung hadn't suffered a late injury, he likely would have been called up to the big leagues last fall. Campusano received his cup of coffee already, and could easily stick there. He can hit, and he can catch. All he needs to do is nudge Austin Nola and/or Victor Caratini out of the way.

One year ago, no one outside of Kansas City had ever heard of Nick Pratto. Then, out of nowhere, he hit 36 homers in just 445 AB's at two different minor league levels, batting .265/.385/.602 overall. Just like that, bam! Top-50 prospect. Not bad for a second-round midseason farm pick!

Brujan is like a little Swiss army knife, capable of filling in capably at multiple positions. FanGraphs is so high on Kwan, they were not only the only member of our panel to rank him, but ranked him all the way up into the top-60 (#57.) They claim he fits into the "Brett Gardner mold," which means he runs like the wind and makes lots of contact.

As always, the Undertakers own a plethora of teenagers in that unranked group, including Ronald Acuna's little brother and two 15-year-olds (Arias and Vaquero) who are expected to become multi-millionaires this year. They also own Suzuki, who clubbed 38 homers in Japan last year and just recently signed with the Cubs. He could very easily become an instant impact player in Los Altos.

#12 Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Bobby Witt (2), Jordan Walker (21), Jasson Dominguez (76), Ezequiel Duran (86), Christian Pache (89)
Unranked prospects: Warming Bernabel, Evan Carter, Cam Collier, Gabriel Gonzalez, Anthony Gutierrez, Dustin Harris, Braden Holcomb, Andruw Jones, Jhonkensy Noel, Hedbert Perez, James Wood

After TEN years in a row, the streak of top-five rankings for the Niagara farm system has finally reached its end. It has been an amazing run, resulting in the development of Xander Bogaerts, Josh Bell, Byron Buxton, Domingo Santana, Ryan McMahon, Victor Robles, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Carson Kelly, and Wander F'ing Franco, among many others. Witt will no doubt become the latest in that decade-long string of success stories. He completely demolished the upper levels of the minor leagues last year, hitting .290/.361/.575 overall, with 35 doubles and 33 homers at the age of 21. He is the odds-on favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award in '22.

A couple of Niagara prospects took a big hit this year. Pache was a top-ten prospect (#7) a year ago, but fell all the way to #89 as he seemingly peaked in 2019, and hit just .265/.330/.414 at Triple-A last year. Dominguez was the most hyped prospect in baseball a year ago, drawing Mickey Mantle comps. He was ranked #37 last year, based on nothing but scouting reports. He has now dropped all the way to #76 after a fairly lackluster year at the Low-A level. Needless to say, both players are still very young and have plenty of time to rebound.

Walker also made his pro debut out of high school last year, and hit a combined .317/.388/.548 at the low-A and high-A levels. He is still a bit rough around the edges, but has massive potential. Speaking of potential, the next wave of Niagara teenagers is waiting in the wings in that unranked group, including Andruw Jones' son, Druw, who is currently ranked #2 in the 2022 MLB draft by FanGraphs and #1 by both Baseball America and MLB.com.

#13 Myrtle Beach Hitmen
Ranked prospects: Corbin Carroll (17), Zac Veen (34), Joey Bart (65), Geraldo Perdomo (101), Cristian Hernandez (103), MacKenzie Gore (114)
Unranked prospects: Jacob Berry, Dylan Crews, Jacob Gonzalez, Elijah Green, Nolan Jones, Reggie Preciado, Kristian Robinson, Kevin Kopps, Kodai Senga

When a farm system falls from three number-one rankings in a row all the way down to #13, there can be many explanations for it. The leading explanation is a positive one: several of the team's best farm players graduated to the big leagues. In Myrtle Beach's case, three of their top four players from last year -- Dylan Carlson, Andrew Vaughn, and Tarik Skubal -- all graduated to the big club, making them ineligible for this year's report.

There is also a negative explanation: several of last year's best prospects took a step or two backward. That explanation applies to many of the Hitmen's top prospects from a year ago. Gore, the #5-ranked prospect a year ago, has struggled with mechanical issues the past two years. Bart, the #39 prospect a year ago, fell 26 places in the ranking despite having a decent Triple-A season last year. MLB.com (ranked #30) still believes in him, but FanGraphs ranked him all the way down at #113, citing his increasing bulk and immobility and his increasing swing-and-miss percentages.

Jones was a top-50 (#44) prospect a year ago. This year, he missed the BDBL Farm Report by one point: FanGraphs ranked him at #101. He got off to an atrocious start in 2021, striking out in more than 32% of his plate appearances. He rebounded a bit after that, but it wasn't enough to convince our panel of experts that he belongs in that ranked group. Robinson (#58 a year ago) also joined the unranked group after he missed his second full season with legal issues stemming from a felony assault charge.

Now for the plus side. Carroll (#35 a year ago) and Veen (#62) both made a significant leap up the ranking. Both were first-round MLB draft picks, both are left-handed, and both play the outfield. The similarities end there. Carroll is more of a pure hitter with some gap power and plenty of speed. Veen is a power-hitting corner outfielder.

If you're worried about the Myrtle Beach farm club running dry, worry no more. Green (ranked #7 by FanGraphs) and Berry (#14) are both projected to be first-round MLB draft picks this summer. Gonzalez (#1) and Crews (#3) are highly-ranked college players in the 2023 draft. Senga is one of the best pitchers in Japan, and will become a free agent after this season.

#14 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Triston Casas (16), M.J. Melendez (29), Michael Busch (77), Liover Peguero (85)
Unranked prospects: Jeter Downs, Jung-hoo Lee, Daniel Susac, Clayton Beeter, Noah Song

In their effort to win the heated Benes Division, the Infidels have sacrificed a few top-100 prospects this season, including Henry Davis (#24), Daniel Espino (#55), and Sal Frelick (#100), but still have enough talent to avoid the bottom-ten. Former 'Tipper Casas is this franchise's highest-ranked hitting prospect since Dansby Swanson in 2016. So far, he has fit the Casey Kotchman/Eric Hosmer comparison that I gave to him years ago, but scouts feel that he has 35-40 homer potential. Melendez actually did hit 40+ homers last year, but at two different minor league levels. His 41 bombs led the minor leagues. He just needs to shove Salvador Perez under a bus to get some MLB playing time.

Busch was this team's top prospect (ranked #98) a year ago. He's moved up to #77 after an impressive season at Double-A. Peguero showed speed, defense, and some pop in his High-A debut last year, and was one of the youngest players in his league.

Downs was nearly a top-50 prospect (#52) a year ago, but fell completely off the ranked group this year after a disastrous season in which he hit just .190/.272/.333. Lee is the best player in Korea, and could come to the big leagues in 2024. Susac is currently ranked #22 on the FanGraphs 2022 MLB draft list, and is ranked #11 by Baseball America.

#15 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Tyler Soderstrom (28), Jordan Lawlar (37), Bobby Miller (60), Jordan Groshans (109)
Unranked prospects: Owen Caissie, Deyvison De Los Santos, Austin Hendricks, Spencer Jones, Kevin Parada, Travis Swaggerty, Brailyn Marquez, Michael McGreevy, Nate Savino

Last year's top prospect, Ian Anderson, graduated to the big leagues, and this year's top prospect, Brennan Davis (#18) was traded a few weeks ago. That leaves Soderstrom as the new top prospect for the Black Sox franchise. He was ranked as high as #21 (BA) and as low as #56 (MLB.com.) He posted strong numbers (.306/.390/.568) in his pro debut last year, but was limited to just 57 games with an oblique injury. He is still far away from the big leagues, and has some work to do defensively behind the plate, but he looks like more of a top-20 guy than a top-60.

Both Baseball America and MLB.com rank Lawlar among their top-30, but FanGraphs has listed him all the way down at #81. The sixth overall pick of last year's MLB draft, Lawlar managed only five pro at-bats last year before exiting with a shoulder injury. FanGraphs' main knock on him is his age (19) compared to other high school graduates.

Like Soderstrom and Lawlar, Miller also saw his 2021 season cut short by injury. He managed just 56+ innings, while pitching through an oblique injury, before shutting it down. Groshans is built like a power-hitting middle infielder, but whacked only seven home runs last year, and has just 14 homers in 547 career minor league at-bats.

#16 Blacksburg Beamers
Ranked prospects: Spencer Torkelson (4), Jose Barrero (79), Quinn Priester (81), Hunter Brown (124)
Unranked prospects: Tyler Callihan, Gavin Cross, Kendall Simmons, Logan Tanner, Michael Toglia, Hunter Brown, Shawn Dubin, D.J. Herz, Alec Marsh, Michael Plassmeyer

Back in 2019, Greg Newgard traded Travis Shaw to the Myrtle Beach Hitmen for Torkelson and Keibert Ruiz. Later that year, the Hitmen flipped Shaw to the Cowtippers for Corbin Carroll. Shaw helped Salem win a championship that year, and Torkelson and Carroll both became top-20 prospects. That's called a win-win-win trade!

Torkelson looks like a future perennial all-star, with that future beginning as soon as now. He hit .267/.383/.552 at three levels last year, with 30 home runs. He will fit right into the middle of a 2023 Blacksburg lineup that includes Aaron Judge, Matt Olson, and George Springer. (And thanks to the new DH rule, Blacksburg won't have to worry about Olson and Torkelson sharing the same position. Yay!)

Barrero (#33) was only rated by BA. Priester (#88 and #54) was only rated by BA and MLB.com, respectively. Brown (#95) was only rated by FanGraphs. Barrero posted good numbers in Triple-A last year (.306/.392/.594), but flopped in a 21-game MLB debut. Priester had a decent year in the low levels, but is years away from contributing. Brown has a blazing fastball, but has struggled with his command, and looks like a future reliever.

#17 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Adley Rutschman (1), Sal Frelick (100), Asa Lacy (101)
Unranked prospects: Ricardo Cabrera, Felnin Celesten, Jace Jung, Brooks Lee, Benny Montgomery, Brock Wilken, Dylan Coleman, Kutter Crawford, Peyton Pallette, Connor Prielipp, Thomas White

Rutschman is the fifth Cowtippers prospect to be ranked #1 in this annual report, joining Mark Teixeira, Jay Bruce, Stephen Strasburg, and Andrew Benintendi. The only other franchises with four different #1 prospects are (not surprisingly) Los Altos and Niagara. If the Orioles ever let him play, Rutschman will instantly become the best catcher in baseball the moment he steps onto a big league diamond.

The rest of the ranked group is...err...a little light. Frelick was the 15th overall player selected in last year's MLB draft. He hit .329/.414/.466 in his 35-game debut, but evidently it wasn't enough to impress our panel of experts. Lacy fell from #27 last year all the way to #101 after losing control of his stuff last year. He walked over seven batters per nine, which sounds permanently disqualifying until you realize that another big left-hander named Randy Johnson averaged 6.5 walks per nine in his minor league career.

The unranked group is much deeper than the ranked. Salem owns the #3- and #4-ranked players (Lee and Jung, respectively) in the 2022 draft, according to Baseball America. They own the #2-ranked prospect (Wilken) in the 2023 draft, according to FanGraphs. And they own the top-ranked international player in the 2023 J2 class.

#18 Flagstaff Peaks
Ranked prospects: Orelvis Martinez (41), Austin Martin (47), Patrick Bailey (107)
Unranked prospects: Tyler Black, Yiddi Cappe, T.J. Friedl, Joe Mack, Mat Nelson, Misael Urbina, Joan Adon, Jack Anderson, Brandon Barreira, Kyler Bush, Ryan Cusick, Anthony Solometo, Blake Weiman

During Jim Doyle's Khaleesi-like departure last year, he traded away several top-100 prospects as he burned it all to the ground, including George Kirby (#22), Bobby Miller (#60), Royce Lewis (#61), and Quinn Priester (#81). He left a bare cupboard not only on the 35-man roster (which had barely become a 15-man roster when he left), but the 15-man farm roster as well. New GM Greg Newgard managed to replenish the farm with one top-50 prospect (Martin) this winter. Martin projects to be a plus hitter with elite on-base skills, good speed, and power potential. The only question is where he will play defensively.

The lone holdover from Doyle's Latin American Teenage Drafting Adventure, Martinez, clubbed 28 homers in 395 AB's over two A-ball levels last year. He struggled a bit at the high-A level, however, and his swing can be exploited by more advanced pitching. He's a work-in-progress, but has the potential to be a power-hitting infielder. Bailey was ranked #76 by FanGraphs, but was not ranked by the other two on our panel. He, too, struggled at the High-A level last year, but finished strong. He will have to compete with Joey Bart for playing time now that Buster Posey has hung up his chest protector.

#19 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Luis Matos (54), Daniel Espino (55), Gabriel Arias (93), Ryne Nelson (125)
Unranked prospects: Gabriel Arias, Alex Binelas, Zack Gelof, Junior Marin, Bubba Thompson, James Triantos, Xzavion Curry, Hayden Wesneski

Cleveland's top prospect, Matos, made his pro debut in Low-A as a 19-year-old last year after he was signed as a 16-year-old in 2018. He won his league's MVP award, displaying the ability to hit for average and power, with plenty of speed and defense, and a reasonable BB/K rate. He's a long way from the big leagues, but he has all the tools to get there.

Espino was Cleveland's main reward for trading Dylan Floro and Hunter Renfroe to Ravenswood last chapter. He is ranked as the Cleveland Indians' #2 prospect following a decent effort at two A-ball levels last year. (And yeah, I wrote "Indians." Fight me on it.) He can get his fastball up to 101 mph, and his secondary stuff is good enough to suggest he can remain in the starting role. Arias made the top-100 ranking by all three of our panel of experts. Yet another Cleveland prospect, Arias shows plus power and defense up the middle, but has the typical swing issues of an overly-aggressive hitter. Nelson is an advanced pitcher with a career K rate of 12.6 per nine. Initially thought to be destined for the bullpen, scouts now believe he can stick in the starting rotation. We could see him in the big leagues as early as this year.

#20 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Robert Hassell III (31), Andy Pages (88), Mark Vientos (94)
Unranked prospects: Peyton Burdick, Chase DeLauter, Milman Diaz, Hudson Head, Termarr Johnson, Eddys Leonard, Braden Montgomery, Jose Ramos

Robert Hassell III sounds like the heir to the throne, and perhaps he is if that throne currently belongs to Randy Arozarena. The eighth overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft, Hassell is a well-rounded ballplayer with excellent bat control, power potential, speed, defensive agility, and arm strength. He hit .302/.393/.470 in his pro debut at two A-ball levels last year. Pages smacked 31 homers at High-A last year, and yet was only ranked #86 by FanGraphs, #68 by MLB.com, and wasn't ranked at all by Baseball America. The knocks against him are issues with his body type, poor base running and speed, poor decision-making, and inconsistent defense. Vientos was only ranked by FanGraphs (#64.) He hit 22 homers at the Double-A level last year, but suffers from the same "conditioning problems" as Pages.

The most talent on this farm club exists in the unranked group. Johnson is currently ranked as the #2 prospect in the 2022 MLB draft by BA. He is short and stocky, with elite bat speed, advanced bat-to-ball skills, and plus power. DeLauter is the fastest-rising prospect in that draft after an impressive showing in the Cape Cod League. He has continued that hot streak into the NCAA season. Montgomery is currently ranked (by FanGraphs) as the top prospect in the 2024 draft. He has gotten off to a horrible start, however, both at the plate (.222/.263/.444) and on the mound (1 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 5 BB.)

#21 Buckingham Sovereigns
Ranked prospects: Oswald Peraza (46), Luis Medina (91), Josh H. Smith (118)
Unranked prospects: Hunter Bishop, Andres Chaparro, Maikol Escotto, Anthony Garcia, Trevor Hauver, Eguy Rosario, Oswaldo Cabrera, Yoendrys Gomez, Janson Junk, Caleb Kilian, Luis Medina, Ryan Rolison, Alexander Vizcaino, Ken Waldichuk

Out of Baseball America's top-10 Yankees prospects, Buckingham owns only three of them. This, my friends, is a true rarity. FanGraphs' Yankees list goes to 40, and Buckingham owns eight of the top-25. That's a little better.

Peraza would be the Yankees' best shortstop (Gleyber Torres included) if not for Anthony Volpe's shocking rise to stud-dom. He is a plus hitter and plus defender up the middle. Medina has fantastic stuff, but suffers from inconsistency. He would seem to be a great fit in the Yankees' bullpen on Opening Day this year, and then gradually eased into the starting rotation. Smith was a Yankees prospect, but was traded to Texas last year in the Joey Gallo deal. He's a Dustin Pedroia type: short second baseman with no real weaknesses in his game, no outstanding skills, and good baseball instincts. A "grinder," as they say.

#22 D.C. Memorials
Ranked prospects: Khalil Watson (38)
Unranked prospects: Miguel Amaya, Oscar Colas, Carlos Colmenarez, Robert Puason, Cristian Santana, Trey Sweeney, Sam Bachman, Michel Baez, Jared Kelley, Ty Madden, Eric Pardinho, Yerry Rodriguez, Cole Wilcox

It is shocking to see this franchise's farm system ranked so low. The Memorials farm (once called the Apostles farm) ranked among the top-five in this report for seven years in a row, from 2013-19. They owned the #1 farm in the BDBL four times in six seasons at one point. Now, only Watson keeps them from a dead-last ranking. He was ranked as high as #25 (MLB.com) and as low as #60 (BA.) A first-round pick in last year's MLB draft (16th overall), Watson managed to play only nine games in rookie ball, albeit they were an impressive nine games: 13-for-33 (.394), 3 doubles, 2 triples, 8 walks, 7 strikeouts, 4 stolen bases. He is said to be a "five-tool shortstop," and sure looks like one so far.

The unranked group is filled with former first-round MLB draft picks (Kelley, Madden, Wilcox, Sweeney) and former top-ranked international players (Colmenarez, Colas, Puason, Baez.) None have come close to fulfilling their early scouting reports -- at least, so far.

#23 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Alexander Vargas (122)
Unranked prospects: Yoelqui Cespedes, Jose Devers, Reivaj Garcia, Oscar Gonzalez, Miguel Hiraldo, Ed Howard, Brice Turang, Brett Conine, Seth Corry, Brendon Little

This is hardly rarified air (musty cellar air?) for this franchise. They have now ranked at the bottom or second-to-the-bottom in this annual report five times in the past seven years. They haven't ranked higher than the bottom four in almost a decade. Folks, this is one of the most successful franchises in the BDBL during that time. It's almost as if farm club success does not correlate with BDBL success!

What can I say about Alexander Vargas? Well, first, I have to look him up to see who he is. Give me a minute.

Apparently, he plays for my favorite team, the New York Yankees. News to me! His scouting report says he'll never hit for power, but he can run fast and plays good defense. Well, that's something, I guess. Unfortunately, he's stuck behind nine other Yankees shortstops on the depth chart, so we're unlikely to ever see him in pinstripes. I just hope the Yanks can trade him for some pitching at some point.

#24 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Austin Wells (125)
Unranked prospects: Dillon Dingler, Heston Kjerstad, Otto Lopez, Alexfri Planez, Jairo Pomares, Jose A. Rodriguez, Will Wilson, Logan T. Allen, Graham Ashcraft, Peyton Battenfield, Joey Cantillo, Jhoan Duran, Sean Hjelle, Cody Morris

For the second year in a row, the winner of the Worst Farm System in the BDBL goes to...the Bear Country Jamboree!! Like Great Lakes, this is hardly a new development. Bear Country has ranked last or next-to-last in four of the past five seasons. Like Great Lakes, it doesn't seem to impede their ability to win lots of games. Farm success seems to have such little correlation with BDBL success, it's a wonder why some folks keep pushing so hard to expand our farm rosters. It's almost as if they just want me to waste more time manually adding players to the roster who will never see the light of day.

Speaking of wasting time manually entering players into our system who will never see the light of day in the big leagues: I will bet a beer at BDBL Weekend 2023 that by the time that day comes, at least 80% of the players listed above will no longer be in the BDBL. Honestly, I have no idea who almost all of these players are without looking them up, so they can't be that good, right? Alexfri Planez? Jairo Pomares? Dillon Dingler? C'mon, man. Are these even real people?

Anyway...I guess I should write something about Bear Country's lone ranked prospect, Wells. I actually know who he is, because he was the Yanks' first round pick a couple of years ago. He's posted some decent numbers in A-ball, but he struck out over 32% of the time last year. That, alone, tells me he has a lot of work to do before he's ready for primetime.

Okay, I promised you a "bonus," and here it is. This year, Baseball America created a new feature called the "Dynasty 1,000." It is a ranked list of the best players in the game of baseball at all levels, based on their projected value over the next three years. It is especially created for dynasty leagues like ours and includes not only current MLB and minor league players, but amateur and foreign players as well.

This should give us some idea how good our franchises are in the short term -- according to Baseball America. The one downside is that many of the players they listed are BDBL free agents within the next three years, so we simply have to take that into consideration when evaluating this ranking.

As with my Farm Report, I assigned points to all 1,140 players in their list, giving the #1-ranked player (Juan Soto) a value of 1,140, #2 (Ronald Acuna) 1,139 points, and so on. I then summed all of the points per franchise to reach the ranking below. Along with each team, I have included the top five franchise players. Enjoy!