September, 2022

Chapter Five Recap

Players of the Chapter

The Cleveland Rocks haven't given their fans many reasons to celebrate this year. They are a miserable 47-85 on the season, 40 games out of first place, and have been outscored by 185 runs so far. Cleveland fans can, however, celebrate the fact that one of their own, Little Joey Wendle, is our Chapter Five Hitter of the Chapter. Wendle, who is playing his third and final season for Cleveland, hit an astounding .406/.442/.781 in Chapter Five, with an Eck-leading 34.2 runs created. Despite his remarkable performance, the Rocks went an abysmal 6-22 in Chapter Five -- the worst record in the league.

Rafael Devers had an inexplicably miserable 2021 BDBL season, and began this season with a .312 on-base percentage in Chapter One. He has turned it around in the second half of this season, however. In Chapter Five, he hit .351/.403/.904, and led the league in runs scored, RBI's, home runs, and runs created. He blew away the field in that last category, racking up 41.4 runs created -- 12 more than the next-highest total from his teammate, Trea Turner.

Myrtle Beach's Robbie Ray made BDBL history on Tuesday when he pitched the 32nd no-hitter in league history, and the second this season. Facing the last-place Highland Freedom, Ray allowed just one walk and struck out 13 batters, while tossing just 117 pitches. He ranked #2 in the EL with a 2.28 ERA in Chapter Five, and held opponents to a .143/.222/.221 batting line. That makes him our EL Pitcher of the Chapter.

On the Ozzie side, it is tough to pitch better than Akron's ace, Corbin Burnes, did in Chapter Five. Burnes posted a microscopic 1.05 ERA, went a perfect 4-0, and held opponents to a .175/.211/.233 batting line. Burnes took over the ERA lead (2.44) on the season, and looks to be among the frontrunners for the OL Cy Young award.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Akron Makes a Statement

All season long, it felt as though the Akron Ryche were poised to explode. Instead, they merely kept pace with the Ravenswood Infidels atop the Benes Division, posting identical records in each of the first four chapters. In Chapter Five, that explosion finally happened. Akron tallied a league-best 23-5 record, capped by a sweep of the Infidels. They now sit with a commanding five-game lead over Ravenswood.

Pitching was the key to Akron's Chapter Five success. Akron pitchers allowed a league-low 81 runs on the chapter -- an average of only 2.9 runs per game. Relievers Josh Hader and Tim Mayza pitched 24.2 innings combined and didn't allow a single run. Nasty Nestor Cortez went 3-0 in his three starts, and allowed only two runs in 19 innings. Gerrit Cole (2-0, 2.14 in 33+ IP) and Brandon Woodruff (3-1, 2.88 in 40+) also had an outstanding chapter.

Ravenswood's pitchers performed nearly as well in Chapter Five. They posted a 2.73 team ERA, and allowed only 88 runs (75 earned.) While they were swept by Akron, it was hardly a bloodbath. Three of the four games were decided by just one run, with one of those games ending in extra innings. One break here, another there, and the results of that series would have changed dramatically. That's baseball.

It is safe to say that Akron and Ravenswood are evenly-matched. With Ravenswood holding a nine-game lead in the wildcard race, it is practically guaranteed that both teams will reach the playoffs. The only question is the seeding, which has suddenly become very tight. The Bear Country Jamboree went 21-7 in Chapter Five, which now places them only one win away from the third seed in the OL playoffs. Likewise, Akron's 23-win chapter puts them only one win away from the top seed. The OL playoffs picture couldn't be any murkier than it appears right now.

Story #2: The Wild EL Wildcard Race

As mentioned above, three Eck League teams are within two games of each other in the wildcard race, with Great Lakes trailing only five games behind the leader, Chicago. As it currently stands, the Myrtle Beach Hitmen and Kansas Law Dogs are tied in that race, both two games behind Chicago.

None of the teams above, with the exception of Great Lakes, helped themselves in this race last chapter. Chicago, Myrtle Beach, and Kansas all posted identical 15-13 records, which resulted in no movement up or down whatsoever. Only the Sphinx helped themselves by going 17-11, which put them back in the race.

Of the four teams, the Law Dogs have the easiest schedule in Chapter Six. Their opponents have posted a .460 winning percentage this season. Chicago, Myrtle Beach, and Great Lakes all face opponents with a combined winning percentage above .500. Myrtle Beach faces the steepest uphill battle of the four. While their division rivals in Chicago will face the D.C. Memorials (.485) and Buckingham Sovereigns (.568) outside of the division, the Hitmen will have to face the Niagara Locks (.591) and Great Lakes Sphinx (.523).

One issue that becomes highly-important in Chapter Six is usage. Chicago and Kansas are in relatively good shape compared to the others, with only five players at 90% or higher usage. Myrtle Beach has eight players at this level, including their star, Jose Ramirez (95%). Great Lakes has twelve, including Josh Donaldson, who has only 69 PA's of usage remaining.

Everyone loves an underdog, which makes it impossible not to root for Myrtle Beach in this scenario. Between their usage issues and strength of schedule, however, their playoff odds look abysmal at this point. They can become the masters of their own destiny with four games at home against Chicago on the schedule. Stranger things have happened in the BDBL.

Story #3: Buckingham Continues to Defy the Odds

The Buckingham Sovereigns have no business sitting atop the Higuera Division. They have been outscored by 11 runs this season, while the Kansas Law Dogs have outscored their opponents by 74. Yet, here we are with only one chapter remaining, and Buckingham holds a three-game lead over Kansas. It makes zero sense.

Last chapter, the Sovereigns outscored their opponents by a single run, and yet went 16-12 on the chapter, gaining one game over Kansas in that division race. The 'Dogs even went 8-3 in one-run games and still managed to lose one more game than Buckingham last chapter!

Buckingham's Pythagorian difference has now reached double digits, which is something usually reserved only for Matt Clemm. According to Pythagoras, the Sovereigns should be 65-67 at this point in the season, which would be seven games behind Kansas.

Buckingham also reached double digits in another luck-driven statistic: come-from-behind wins. They have not only won 10 games when trailing at seven innings, but they won eight more when tied at seven. Those 18 wins in late innings are topped only by Clemm himself, who has won 13 games when tied at seven and 8 more when trailing.

Is clutch hitting and pitching in late innings a skill? If not, how do we explain how the same people seem to benefit from such "luck" year after year?

Story #4: Who is Next to Clinch?

The Salem Cowtippers became the first team in the BDBL to clinch a division title this season, doing so on August 29th, which is likely one of the earliest dates for clinching a title in league history. This is the eleventh division title for the Cowtippers, which is the second-highest total to Jeff Paulson and the Undertakers (with fifteen.)

With the first clinch out of the way, who is next? Thanks to their incredible fifth chapter, the Bear Country Jamboree currently own the next-lowest magic number, at eleven. At the beginning of this season, it appeared as though the Jamboree would face some stiff competition in the Griffin Division. By the end of two chapters, Bear Country was tied for first place with the Blacksburg Beamers, with the Los Altos Undertakers nipping at their heels, five games behind.

From that point on, Bear Country has been on fire. While Blacksburg faded into the distance with a 30-46 (.395) record since the end of Chapter Two, the Jamboree have posted the second-best winning percentage (.632, tied with Ravenswood) in the Ozzie League. Over the last three chapters, they have won more one-run games (17) and extra-inning games (10) than any other team in the BDBL. No other team is close in either category.

You might think that winning so many one-run games and extra-inning games would require a strong bullpen, and yet one of the main weapons in Bear Country's bullpen, Aroldis Chapman, has posted a team-worst 5.40 ERA since the end of Chapter Two. Instead, the man who is primarily responsible for the Jamboree's success has been closer Craig Kimbrel, who has posted a 1.31 ERA over that period, with 16 saves in 17 opportunities.

When the Jamboree win this division, it will be only the second division title in franchise history, and first since 2008. After the Jamboree, the Niagara Locks are next in line with a magic number of 15. This franchise has waited even longer than Bear Country to win a division title. The Niagara franchise has only three titles in their history, with the last one in 2007. Mike Ranney has spent a dozen years building this team from the farm-up, and some of those risky investments are finally paying dividends.

One of those risky investments, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., is having a monster year. He is hitting .309/.389/.616 overall, and leads the Eck League with 45 homers, 120 runs scored, and 125.8 runs created. He was only 15 years old when Ranney selected him with his second pick of the 2015 farm draft (right behind another risky investment that never paid off, Kevin Maitan.)

Another candidate to next clinch a division title are the Charlotte Mustangs, whose magic number is 16. I have been writing on this page all season that Charlotte's success was a mirage, and that Chicago would eventually overtake them in the standings. Boy is my face red!

Instead of fading into the the shadows, Charlotte has risen to the occasion. They went a phenomenal 19-9 last chapter, and now sit just one win away from owning the best record in the BDBL and the #1 seed in the playoffs. A large part of their success is driven by their absolutely insane 24-5 record in one-run games. Team Clutch has also gone 10-5 in extra-inning games, and have come from behind nine times. Charlotte owns an .804 team OPS overall, but that number inflates to .840 when the score is within one run. Charlotte's pitchers have held opposing hitters to a .705 OPS overall, but from innings seven-through-nine, that OPS drops to just .620. #teamclutch

Story #5: Coming Soon: More Rivalries!

"Radical realignment" was officially passed earlier this month, which will give us several exciting new division rivalries. In the Higuera Division, father and son Badger will battle it out along with Kansas and South Philly. In the Wilkie Division, longtime friends Joe Demski and Adam Miner will fight for that title against the Locks and Freedom. And in the Hrbek Division, bestest buddies Tony Chamra and Ian Hartner will duke it out with the Gill family. In exchange, three Eck League franchises -- Great Lakes, South Carolina, and Cleveland -- will move on up to the Ozzie League.

As if all of that intradivisional fighting weren't exciting enough, we will also be expanding interleague play as well. Gone are the days of playing one division every three years. As of 2023, we will play every division in the BDBL for at least one home-and-home four-game series.

The final rule change coming in 2023 has been controversial for many years. After endless lobbying by certain folks who shall not be named, expansion from fifteen to twenty farm spots was finally placed on the ballot and passed by the skin of its teeth with the bare-minimum of thirteen votes.

I could have refused, once again, to put this proposal on the ballot. I could have ended voting a day earlier instead of giving one last call. But no. I just had to be the "nice guy."