August, 2023

Chapter Four Recap

Players of the Chapter

Aaron Judge has been my favorite Yankees player for many years now. Funny story: I traded Aaron Judge. Twice. I drafted Judge out of college with my very last pick (8th round) of the 2013 farm draft. (Side note: one pick earlier, I selected Matt Olson. I traded him, too.) I actually managed to hold onto Judge for two whole years before Skizm tempted me to trade him in exchange for Alex Gordon in the 2015 preseason. The very next preseason I decided I wanted him back, so I traded Max Scherzer to Skiz for Judge and two others. Then, the following winter, I decided I simply HAD to have Junior Guerra. He was the missing piece to my 2017 championship! So I traded Judge to Greg (of all people) for Guerra. Needless to say, I didn't win the championship. And Guerra (8-7, 4.06 ERA) was mostly a dud. Anyway, Judge (.359/.473/.815, 12 HR, 37.6 RC) is our EL Hitter of the Chapter.

In 2021, Johnny Bo drafted a nobody named Taylor Ward with his 16th round pick in the free agent draft. Ward had a decent year (.261/.357/.435, 15 HR) for the division-winning Las Vegas Flamingos that year. Now signed through the 2026 season, Ward is having his best year yet. In Chapter Four, he led the OL in hitting (.406), runs scored (24), and runs created (30.8). He slashed .406/.467/.656 and is easily our OL Hitter of the Chapter.

The Highland Freedom are having quite a season. They own the worst record (31-73, .298) in the league, and it will only get worse after a couple of trades this past chapter depleted whatever useful players they had. They're on pace to lose 113 games, which would be the second year in a row with 113+ losses. It is hard to believe this team won a division title only two short years ago! Freedom fans don't have much cause for celebration lately, so let's give them one. Their own Jesus Luzardo (1.05 ERA, .189/.232/.322) is our EL Pitcher of the Chapter. Congratulations, Freedom fans! I'm sure this makes up for all the suckassery you've had to endure for two years!

Once upon a time there was a pitcher named Shane. Shane was a pretty unremarkable pitcher in 2018. There were probably hundreds of pitchers just like him. Shane was a fourth round draft pick in 2016, and never appeared on any top prospects list. As a college pitcher and young pro, he was known mostly for limiting walks. He wasn't particularly a strikeout pitcher. All of that changed, however, when John Gill drafted Shane in the third round of the 2018 farm draft. That pick paid almost instant dividends. The very next year, he tossed 125+ innings with a sub-4.00 ERA for the Black Sox. The year after that, he finished sixth in the EL Cy Young race. Then...John Gill decided to trade Shane Bieber to Jeff Paulson. Because of course he did. And now Bieber (5-0, 1.71 ERA, .147/.212/.321) is our OL Pitcher of the Chapter.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Trading Frenzy!

It has been so long since we have seen this many high-impact trades in the BDBL that I had forgotten what it feels like to compete in such a league. The trades made this chapter will, without question, decide the fates of several division races and will more than likely decide who advances in the postseason and eventually wins that elusive trophy. We used to call trades like this "The Trade." Four trades this chapter rose to the level of "The Trade":

Trade #1: Ravenswood traded Alek Manoah and Anthony Rendon to Charlotte for Matt Boyd, Owen White, and Chase Petty.

Needless to say, Skizm has been known to overreact at times. NO ONE takes this league more seriously or plays this game with more passion and intensity than he does. The Infidels were picked by exactly no one to win their division this year, but when they got off to a hot start, expectations in Skizland went through the roof. And when Ravenswood stumbled a tiny bit in Chapter Four, the Skiz DEFCON meter went straight to one.

Manoah was in line for the OL Cy Young this year, but he's having a terrible MLB season. That made him Ravenswood's number one trading chit, and Skiz was desperate to get rid of him to send a message to the league that he was done, done, done with the 2023 BDBL pennant race. Off he went to Charlotte, who was in desperate need of an Alek Manoah type of starter.

Almost immediately following this trade announcement, Boyd injured himself and is now out for the year. According to Skiz, he wasn't a major factor in this deal, regardless. Dumping Rendon's $6.5 million salary was the leading factor for Skiz, along with acquiring White (#97 on BA's updated top-100 prospects list) and Petty (unranked.)

Less than two weeks after this trade, Skiz then turned around and added Miles Mikolas from the Highland Freedom to replace Manoah in the rotation. So...does that mean he's back in the race? Who knows. The Infidels went just 11-13 last chapter, but thanks to the woeful and pathetic Florida Mulligans, they're now tied for the OL wildcard lead. That playoffs spot is Ravenswood's to lose...if they want it.

Trade #2: Charlotte traded James Outman and Brady House to South Carolina for Julio Urias.

You have to tip your cap to Tony Chamra. Mike Stein said that this trade puts Chamra in the lead for EL GM of the Year, and I have to agree. Chamra's Mustangs somehow own the best record in the Eck League -- by far -- despite having no starting pitching whatsoever. Someone named David Peterson owns the best ERA (3.58) among Mustangs starters, and he is only a part-time starter. Patrick Sandoval (no household name) owns the second-best ERA at 3.68. After that, it's a shit show.

As mentioned above, Chamra already acquired an OL Cy Young contender in Manoah (12-5, 2.50 ERA in 144 IP for Ravenswood.) Now he has added a second Cy Young-caliber arm with Urias (8-12, 3.19 ERA in 141 IP for South Carolina.) Those two will prove to be extremely valuable in the postseason, and they could very well carry Charlotte into the World Series.

For South Carolina, this is the end of yet another lackluster nothing of a season. This will more than likely be the 16th time in the past 17 seasons that the Sea Cats will finish in third or fourth place in their division. They have had just one .500 season in that span and no season above .500. As I type, the 'Cats are two games below .500. The loss of Urias will undoubtedly put them well below the break-even mark yet again.

Remember: this was supposed to be a banner year for the Sea Cats. Remember how exciting it was when GM Tony DeCastro went all-in on the auction and added Justin Verlander AND Joe Musgrove to a rotation that already included two Cy Young candidates? What the hell happened? Well, just as I pointed out in the Season Preview, it's difficult to win with an all-pitching strategy. South Carolina currently ranks #21 out of 24 BDBL teams in runs scored. Given that, it's truly remarkable that they are above .500!

Trade #3: Los Altos traded Luis Ortiz to Philadelphia for J.D. Martinez.

As I wrote on the forum, Los Altos adding Martinez is like Shohei Ohtani corking his bat. It ain't gonna make a lot of difference. They're going to dominate either way. The Undertakers are having yet another ridiculous season. They're on pace to win 114 games. Again. Jeff Paulson is the heavy favorite to win the BDBL trophy. Again. Adding Martinez -- one chapter after he added Jeff McNeill -- isn't going to make that much of a difference as to whether or not Los Altos wins that trophy.

That said, Martinez simply makes this scenario that much more of a sure thing. Jeff Paulson is currently tied with Paul Marazita and Tom DiStefano on the all-time BDBL championship trophies leaderboard with four each. Another trophy would put Paulson alone at the top.

Trade #4: Kansas traded Yennier Cano, Phil Maton, and Munataka Murakami to South Philly for Nolan Arenado, Andrew Sampson, and Andre Pallante.

In the Pantheon of Shameful Trades, this one belongs near the front and center. Two brothers battling it out for first place in the same division. A heated battle. Neck-and-neck with only two chapters to go. It doesn't get more exciting than this!

And then...one of them gives his best player to the other? Raises the white flag? Gives up? Takes his ball and goes home?

Oh well. It would have been fun to watch. Maybe next year. Or next decade.

Story #2: Draft Day, Midseason Edition

Draft Day is always an exciting time, but if you listened to the advocates for endless farm expansion, you would think this would have been a boring draft filled with nothing but second-rate prospects.

"Starting now," Jeff Paulson wrote in January of this year, "if you deal a good farm player, now [replacing] him will be much more challenging."

Mitch Gill agreed. "Now when we trade them away," he wrote, "and turn around to restock, there won't be good prospects just sitting there like there has been in years past."

Father Gill echoed this claim as well. "Also wait until July for the next draft," he wrote. "There won't be much available."

I disagreed. "The more farm guys we add," I countered, "the more watered-down the pool becomes. It also becomes far easier to trade farm prospects, as there are now so many more of them to trade."

So, which of us turned out to be right? Is today's farm draft so depleted of talent that it's become impossible to replace traded farm talent? Or is there still plenty of meat on these bones?

Last year, in the midseason draft, a total of twelve players in the midseason top-100 were added in the draft. This was a very unusual number, as players like Jackson Chourio and Jackson Holliday came out of absolutely nowhere to become top-15 prospects overnight. Both were selected in the 2022 midseason draft along with Ezequiel Tovar (#27) and Ricky Tiedemann (#33) among the top-50.

This year, only four top-100 prospects were drafted: Roman Anthony (#33), Chase Hampton (#57), Jared Jones (#72), and Tommy Troy (#86). Is this because the draft pool is watered down? Or because 2022 was so unusual? Time will tell, I suppose.

Last year, six players who were selected in the first round of the 2022 amateur draft were selected in the BDBL midseason draft as well, including the #1 overall pick, Holliday. This year, seven first-rounders have been selected in the draft, with three others who were not taken (including top-10 pick Blake Mitchell.) By this measurement, there is virtually no difference in the draft pools.

Midseason drafts are also a great opportunity to snag a rookie who will have an immediate impact the following year. Last year, the Bear Country Jamboree snagged Alexis Diaz as a farm pick. Chicago also picked up a lights-out closer in Felix Bautista. This year, the "lucky" Highland Freedom walked away with the current MLB leader in ERA, Andrew Abbott.

To me, it sure seems as though there is very little difference in the player pools pre- and post-expansion. I also pointed out when expansion passed that a large number of these extra farm guys would be cut by the end of the year. It is now only a little more than halfway through the year and already my prophecy has come to fruition.

68 players were selected in the 2022 winter farm draft. Roughly 20% of those players were cut by the end of the year, including two first-rounders. This year, we needed to draft a whopping 188 farm players in the winter draft. I predicted last winter that 38 of those players would be cut by the end of the year. To date, 42 (23%) have already been cut. Oh, and Paulson, who claimed last January that there were "soooo many good prospects out there!" has already cut four of the nine players he drafted.

Story #3: The Most Disappointing Team in Baseball, Part One

The Florida Mulligans finished Chapter Four with a 10-14 record. They were outscored by 25 runs on the chapter. They gave up the third-most runs in the Ozzie League and scored the third-fewest. Folks, this is a team that includes three players (Shohei Ohtani, Trea Turner, and Rafael Devers) who finished in the top-25 in MLB last year in Offensive WAR. Three more (Adley Rutschman, Mark Canha, and Andrew Benintendi) ranked among the top-60. You'd think a team with six of the best hitters in the game of baseball could do better than 96 runs in 24 games.

On the pitching side, the Mulligans have two of the top eleven (Shohei Ohtani and Framber Valdez) pitchers in baseball as ranked by WAR. Three more (Ranger Suarez, Luis Garcia, and A.J. Minter) rank among the top-75. Yet, the Mulligans rank a lowly eighth in the OL in ERA, with a below-average figure of 3.92.

Some of the performances on the Florida roster this year are nowhere near the numbers these same players posted in MLB last year. Rafael Devers is sporting an OPS (.690) that is 189 points below his MLB OPS. Ohtani's OPS is 141 points below his MLB OPS, and he's on pace for just 18 homers -- a little more than half as many as he hit in MLB. J.P. Sears, Chase De Jong, Ranger Suarez, and Carl Edwards are all sporting ERA's that are over three runs higher than they posted in MLB '22.

If the players in this game can't perform even half as well as they're supposed to perform...then what is the point of this game?

Story #4: The Most Disappointing Team in Baseball, Part Two

Thirteen people cast votes in preseason polling to predict the winner of the Hrbek Division. Two people voted for Charlotte, who currently own the best record in the Eck League. A whopping eleven people voted for the Myrtle Beach Hitmen, who now trail Charlotte by four games in the division and are barely hanging on to a one-game lead in the EL wildcard race.

Unlike the Mulligans, however, the Hitmen aren't losing because they're underperforming. They're losing because of extremely bad luck and bad timing. They own a Pythagorean difference of minus-7 thanks in large part to a 14-18 record in one-run games. Normally, bad records in one-run games can be blamed on the bullpen, but the Myrtle Beach bullpen has been pretty decent this year.

Zach Jackson owns a 2.31 ERA in 23+ innings this year...and yet he's 0-3 with three blown saves. Matt Wisler (3.12 ERA in 40+ IP) and Steven Okert (3.29 in 27+) have pitched decently, but own three losses and four blown saves combined. The only player on the Hitmen roster who has drastically underperformed this year is Yu Darvish, who owns a BDBL ERA (4.57) that is nearly one and a half runs higher than his MLB ERA (3.10.)

The problem with the Mulligans is that their on-field performance is nowhere near what it should be. The problem with the Hitmen is bad timing. Both problems are usually fixed with time, but we're running out of that now.

Story #5: Akron Takes the Lead

The defending champs are back in sole possession of first place in the Benes Division after a 16-8 showing in Chapter Four. The Ravenswood Infidels, who had enjoyed a three-game lead over Akron heading into the chapter, now trail by two games after a disastrous 11-13 Chapter Four. Of course, that record sent Skiz into a tailspin, prompting him to trade his Cy Young-bound pitcher to Charlotte before replacing that pitcher with Miles Mikolas. Mikolas (6-8, 4.75 ERA in 130+ IP) was having a subpar year for Highland, but his numbers should be much better than that.

So what now? In terms of runs differential, Akron and Ravenswood are just about dead-even. Ravenswood's strength this season has been its pitching. They rank fourth in the Ozzie League in ERA (3.44) and fourth in fewest runs allowed. Swapping Manoah for Kelly is going to cost them a few runs down the stretch.

Akron hasn't made a single trade this season other than the one they made during the draft -- a minor deal involving a pitcher who has thrown 18 innings for Akron this season. Akron's and Ravenswood's Pythagorian Differences indicate that both teams are playing roughly as well as they should be. This means that the Benes Division race is still wide open. One hot streak or cold streak could determine who wins the division and the honor of losing to the Undertakers in the playoffs.