January, 2023

2023 Draft Day Preview

Ah, Draft Day. A day so good, we made it last a month!

What are the strengths of this year's auction class?

We haven't seen a reigning MLB Cy Young winner enter the auction since 2020, when the Kansas Law Dogs shelled out $17.5 million for Jacob deGrom. (Money that I say was well-spent!) The last time before that, in 2017, the South Loop Furies spent $13.5 million for reigning AL Cy Young Rick Porcello. That, unfortunately for Furies fans, did not work out nearly as well. Porcello posted a sub-.500 record for the 2017 Furies, with a pedestrian 3.91 ERA. He then went 4-12 with a 6.13 ERA the following year.

I mention all of the above because the AL's reigning Cy Young, Justin Verlander, is the Crown Jewel of this year's auction class. His numbers (175 IP, 1.75 ERA, 1.56 CERA) suggest that he will make a tremendous impact wherever he lands. The problem is that he will turn 40 years old this February. He will most certainly earn Type-H money, which means that whichever team signs him will have to risk paying him that same amount of money for each of the next two seasons as well as this one.

A fair comparison may be found in the 2006 auction, when Anthony Peburn spent $19 million on 42-year-old free agent Roger Clemens. Clemens was coming off a MLB season in which he finished in third-place for the NL Cy Young award. He carried Peburn's Blazers to their first-ever OL championship, which they lost in four games to the Charlotte Mustangs. Peburn unloaded that $19 million salary on the Kansas Law Dogs that winter. Clemens then carried Kansas to the World Series -- a series Kansas won in five games.

The moral of this story is that age is just a number. (Which is comforting for a guy my age to state.) That number is also a factor with several other top free agents in this class, including Max Scherzer (age 38 in 2023), Johnny Cueto (37), Paul Goldschmidt (35), Jose Abreu (36), Jacob deGrom (35), Chris Martin (37), Luis Garcia (36), Albert Pujols (43), and J.D. Martinez (35). (Of course, with the now-retired Pujols, that number isn't a factor at all.)

On the hitting side, Manny Machado (.298/.366/.531, 113.1 RC) is the cream of the crop. At age 30, he's also very low-risk compared to the senior citizens listed above. This is an unusually weak class for hitters. Only five managed to create 100+ runs last year: Paul Goldschmidt (138), Freddie Freeman (135.3), Machado, Jose Altuve (113), and Jose Abreu (101.2). Dansby Swanson (93.8), Ian Happ (87.3), Christian Yelich (85.7), and Josh Bell (83.9) are the only other hitters that created 80+ runs.

In addition to possible Cy Young candidates Verlander and Scherzer, this auction class also includes a third pitcher who should earn some Cy Young votes this year: Martin Perez (196+ IP, 3.22 CERA, .664 OPS). Blake Snell (2.96 CERA) offers the same quality numbers, but in only 128 innings. Kevin Gausman (174+ IP, 3.49 CERA), Frankie Montas (144+, 3.69), Joe Musgrove (181, 3.06), Cueto (158+, 3.58), German Marquez (181+, 4.53), and Jameson Taillon (177+, 3.33) are some of the other quality starting arms available this winter.

On the bullpen side, auction participants have a number of prime-choice arms to choose from and foolishly lock into long-term Type-H contracts, including Edwin Diaz (62 IP, 1.40 CERA), Erik Swanson (53+, 1.74), Robert Suarez (47+, 2.44), Andrew Chafin (57+, 2.97), Liam Hendriks (57+, 2.56), Chris Martin (56, 2.37), and Jose Leclerc (47+, 2.84). Jacob deGrom (64+, 1.50) could also be used in a bullpen role, similar to his usage in the BDBL last season.

What are the weaknesses?

As noted above, this is a very weak class for offense. Then again, MLB's offensive level tanked in 2022, so maybe this is merely a reflection of that tanking. Offense is in such high demand this winter that 34-year-old Eduardo Escobar somehow managed to make the auction cut despite posting a .295 on-base percentage. Giancarlo Stanton (.297), Gary Sanchez (.282), Brandon Lowe (.308), and Mitch Haniger (.308) also made the cut, although their future potential plays more of a factor.

If you need a catcher, there is only one (Sanchez) available in this auction. There are only three shortstops (Swanson, Urshela, and Escobar) in this auction.

On the pitching side, if you need innings and don't have much money to spend, then, well...best of luck to you. There are only 11 pitchers in this entire draft class that tossed more than 150 innings last year, and Patrick Corbin (6.73 CERA) is one of them.

What about the draft class?

As slim as the pickings are for quality hitters in the auction, this draft class is virtually empty. 36-year-old Charlie Blackmon (.264/.314/.419) leads the draft class with 69.4 runs created -- but also comes with the caveat of Coors Field ballpark factors.

There are only three batters in this draft with 100+ PA's and an 800+ OPS. Of course one of them, Jason Vosler, is a guy I released mid-season last year. (D'oh!) Four others own an OPS of 750+ with 100+ PA's. Ten others own a 720+ OPS and 100+ PA's. After that, well, who cares?

On the pitching side, quality innings are hard to find. The best of the lot, arguably, is 43-year-old Rich Hill, who offers 124+ innings and a (barely) sub-4.00 CERA. Alex Wood (130+, 4.02) is the only other pitcher in this draft class with 120+ innings and a sub-4.50 CERA.

As always, the draft class offers a wide selection of LOOGYs and ROOGYs, as well as several SUS'es. If you gather them up and squish them together like a meatball, you might get one decent pitcher out of it.

Maybe you're not going for it in '23, so you aren't interested in '22 performance? In that case, there are several names available that may intrigue you. Some of these players are past their primes, but may have one more good season left in the tank. Some of them spent all of most of '22 on the disabled list (or whatever they're calling it these days.) The auction includes a few of these guys, such as Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Brandon Lowe, Max Kepler, and Evan Longoria. The draft class includes guys like Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Patrick Corbin, Wil Myers, Joey Votto, Ramon Laureano, Brandon Crawford, Joey Gallo, Yasmani Grandal, Miguel Sano, and the ever-controversial Cody Bellinger.

How much money is out there this year?

Last winter's auction was an absolute clusterfark, filled with insane bidding, suicidal Type-H contracts, and last-second sniping. I don't expect this year's auction to be any different. A near-record 60% of all the total money available last year was spent on the 50 players in the auction. Of those 50 players, a whopping 34 (nearly seven out of every ten!) went Type-H. My back-of-the-napkin calculation shows that roughly 80% of those Type-H contracts are now hot garbage.

For the first time in eight seasons, the league has (barely) less than $500 million to spend this winter. The per-player average of $1.8 million is less than the past two winters, but roughly in line with league history. I would expect to see roughly half of that $494.3 million total spent in this auction, as this class is not as strong as those we've seen in the recent past.

Which teams will be spending all that money?

It's always nice to see a new guy join the league with a clean slate and the ability to make his own personal mark on his franchise immediately. Such is the case in Philadelphia, where the new guy, Tim Chubb, will have a whopping $54.8 million to fill in the gaps on his roster. The last time this happened was in 2021 when J.D. Luhning began his BDBL career with $51 million to spend on his new franchise. The all-time BDBL record for draft spending cash was set in 2019 when Lee Scholtz, also just beginning his BDBL career, had $52.3 million to spend. Buying a competitive team by paying market value for aging veterans isn't easy, but we have seen it done before in the BDBL.

After the Philadelphia Fightin's, the South Carolina Sea Cats ($49.6M), Blacksburg Beamers ($35.7M), Cleveland Rocks ($34.9M), and Virginia Sovereigns ($32.6M) own the next-highest amounts of spending cash this winter. On the flip side, the Florida Mulligans and South Philly Gritty have just $5.5 million to spend this winter. The Charlotte Mustangs ($5.6M), D.C. Memorials ($8M), Flagstaff Peaks ($8.4M), Akron Ryche ($10.1M), Myrtle Beach Hitmen ($10.5M), and Niagara Locks ($10.9M) will also be sitting on the sidelines for most, if not all, of this auction.

The league leader in spending per player is...and I hope you're sitting as you read this...the Los Altos Undertakers, who have a ridiculous $4.6 million to spend per player with only four roster spots to fill. The question is: what the hell do the Undertakers need at this point? They already own a starting rotation with two Cy Young candidates and a bullpen that is so ridiculously stacked, they'll have to reserve some pitchers who would be closers for other teams.

Likewise, the Los Altos offense is already chock-full of all-star hitters at every position with the possible exceptions of catcher and second base. Jeff Paulson has $18.2 million to spend this winter. It would not surprise me to see him go all-in on Manny Machado. It wouldn't surprise me to see him add a third Cy Young arm to his rotation. It also wouldn't surprise me to see him snatch up every decent player in the $5M rounds of the draft. Frankly, nothing he could possibly do would surprise me unless he just ate the $18.2 million like D.J. Shepard used to do.

The Lake Norman Monsters ($4.3M), North Carolina ISP's ($3.2M), Philadelphia Fightin's ($2.9M), South Carolina Sea Cats ($2.9M), and Darien Blue Wave ($2.8M) also have a crap-ton of money to spend, per player.

Should I save my money for 2024?

The 2024 auction is already shaping up to be the most interesting auction we have ever had. Way back in 2014, we voted to allow the introduction of "franchise players" to our system of contracts and salaries. From that point forward, we have enjoyed the ability to sign a young player, fresh off the farm, to a long-term contract at minimal cost -- with the provision that they can never be traded over the term of that contract. Several of the best young players in baseball were locked into ten-year contracts as a result of that vote. Next winter, those players will finally become available to every franchise in the league.

That list of former franchise players will include Javier Baez, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, Matt Olson, George Springer, Aaron Nola, and Jon Gray, among others. All of the above players will still be on the right side of age 35 next winter. I cannot imagine there is enough money in this league to sign them all.

Another reason to get excited about the 2024 auction is that it will have been three years since the 2021 auction. You may remember that as the auction when Lee Scholtz and Tony Badger both lost their freakin' minds! They engaged in an unprecedented bidding war for Mike Trout that ended with a $26.5 million bid that smashed every record in the BDBL record books. As he was required to sign Trout to a minimum two-year deal at season's end, Scholtz did just that, which makes Trout a free agent in 2024.

Several other stars from that auction were signed to similar two-year deals that will expire at the end of this year, including Lance Lynn, Nolan Arenado, Lance McCullers, Anthony Rizzo, D.J. LeMahieu, Zack Wheeler, Jose Ramirez, Robbie Ray, Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos, Yu Darvish, and Charlie Morton.

As if all of the above names aren't enough to excite you, Bryan Reynolds, Max Muncy, Josh Hader, Brandon Woodruff, Giovanny Gallegos, Luis Castillo, Sandy Alcantara, Luis Severino, Merrill Kelly, and Julio Urias will also be available in next winter's auction.

In other words: save your money!