June, 2023

Chapter Three Recap

Players of the Chapter

In my Preseason Preview, I speculated that Aaron Judge could hit 70 home runs this year thanks to Blacksburg's home ballpark. It took a while for him to heat up, but it seems he finally did just that. In only 24 games in Chapter Three, Judge smashed 13 home runs, which gives him a league-leading 29 homers halfway through the season. He slashed .354/.415/.844 and led the league with 31 runs created. He is an easy pick for EL Hitter of the Chapter.

The OL pick is a little tougher, as several players had an outstanding chapter. Flagstaff's Mookie Betts led the OL with 24 runs created. Bear Country's Freddie Freeman slashed .319/.426/.527. But I'll give the award to Darien's Mike Trout, just because he carried the Blue Wave to a 16-8 record, which helped his team recapture first place in the McGowan Division. Trout, playing out the final year of his massive 79.5 million-dollar contract, hit .315/.383/.836 on the chapter and created 23.4 runs.

The Myrtle Beach Hitmen suffered through a disastrous 9-15 chapter, but it wasn't due to the pitching of Taijuan Walker. Walker posted a 1.60 ERA (best in the EL) in Chapter Three, and held opponents to a .164/.205/.267 slash line. Myrtle Beach was so bad, they lost two of the five games he started. Nevertheless, he's our EL Pitcher of the Chapter.

The Bear Country Jamboree are having a very forgettable season. They are sitting exactly at .500 with a record of 40-40 heading into the break. Uncharacteristically, they are playing four games below their Pythagorean record. They are in third place in their division, a whopping 15 games behind Los Altos, and nine games out of the OL wildcard hunt. Jamboree fans don't have much to brag about these days, so I'll give Drew Rasmussen the OL Pitcher of the Chapter award just so those poor folks have something to cheer about. Rasmussen is just 3-8 on the season, but he excelled in Chapter Three, posting a 1.98 ERA and holding opponents to a line of .168/.186/.337.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Florida Falls Apart

The schizophrenic Florida Mulligans can't seem to figure out if they're a decent team or not. We began this season in the toilet, playing sub-.500 ball (9-11) through the first 20 games of the season. Then we caught fire, going 28-8 (.778) over their next 36 games. We began Chapter Three with a 5-11 record before closing out the chapter with a 7-1 tear.

What gives? These are the same exact players playing with the same exact cards. Strength of schedule doesn't explain it, as the Mulligans struggled against several sub-.500 teams last chapter, but took three of four from the first-place Blue Wave. Nothing seems to explain it except those damn random dice rolls.

While the Mulligans flipped and flopped throughout the chapter, the Blue Wave logged yet another impressive chapter, going 16-8 to finish the first half of the season with 50 wins. That puts them on pace to finish with 100 wins, which would be the first time that has happened with this franchise since the Geisel Era!

If anything, Darien has played below their capability this season. Their Pythagorean difference of minus-5 is the worst in the OL. Much of that is due to their mediocre 12-11 record in one-run games. Normally, the blame for that can be placed on the bullpen, but the Darien bullpen has been as spectacular as advertised. No fewer than seven Blue Wave relievers have pitched 17+ innings this year and own an ERA of 2.50 or lower.

The Darien offense leads the entire BDBL with 444 runs scored. Their runs margin of +143 is second only to the always-dominant Los Altos Undertakers, who are on pace for yet another 110-win season.

Darien has just added a very good starting pitcher in Luis Castillo. He is a huge upgrade over the likes of Luis Gilbert (4.76 ERA in 14 starts) and Michael Kopech (4.66 in 11). I would not be surprised to see Darien and Florida separate even further over the second half of the season, which means Florida will likely have to contend with the Akron Ryche for that OL wildcard.

Story #2: Monsters, Locks Trade Punch For Punch

The Lake Norman Monsters and Niagara Locks have now recorded identical records in each of the first three chapters. They both went 17-11 in Chapter One, 13-15 in Chapter Two, and 15-9 in Chapter Three.

The fact that these two teams own the same record halfway through the season is remarkable. Lake Norman has scored 38 more runs than Niagara, and has allowed 64 fewer runs. As you might suspect, Niagara owns a positive (+4) Pythagorian difference, while Lake Norman owns the worst PD (-7) in the entire BDBL.

One of the issues with Lake Norman is that their bullpen has blown a lot of leads and a lot of games. The Monsters have blown 33% of their save opportunities this year, which ranks near the bottom in the BDBL. Bryan Baker owns a stellar 1.63 ERA in over 38 innings, but has lost two games. Baker, Daniel Bard, Luis A. Garcia, and Paul Sewald have lost nine games combined. On the starting side, Marcus Stroman is one of the best pitchers in baseball in MLB '23, but owns a 7.53 ERA in the BDBL.

Niagara owes much of their winning record to the teams in their own division. They own an EL-best 16-8 record in intradivision games. They also benefit from very timely hitting and pitching. They're the only team in the BDBL with seven come-from-behind wins this year. And they're an incredible 7-0 in extra-inning games!

The Monsters made a deal with the Jamboree at the deadline, adding J.D. Davis and Matt Bush. Bush may be able to help that bullpen problem (although he's had problems of his own this year.) Monsters GM Joe Demski is hoping his batting coach can help turn Davis' season around. He's hitting just .203/.308/.385 this season, which is miles away from his .248/.340/.418 MLB performance last year.

Story #3: Defending Champs On the Ropes

The Akron Ryche were the heavy favorites to win their division heading into this season, as they earned 14 out of the 15 votes in league polling. The Ravenswood Infidels didn't receive a single vote in that poll. Yet, here we are halfway through the season and the Ryche are looking up at the Infidels in the Benes Division race, with the latter holding a comfortable three-game lead.

In my Preseason Preview, I wrote that this year's Akron team was even better than last year's trophy-winning club, based mostly on their insanely-good starting rotation. That rotation, however, hasn't dominated nearly as much as I expected. Nasty Nestor Cortez (9-2, 3.16 ERA) has been as good as expected, but Corbin Burnes (6-6, 3.54), Triston McKenzie (5-8, 4.25), and Brandon Woodruff (5-4, 4.30) have not looked like the aces they are supposed to be.

And then there is Gerrit Cole. What on earth is up with him? When he began this season with a 2-4 record and 6.35 ERA in Chapter One, we all assumed it was a fluke. But he barely improved to 4-2 with a 4.85 ERA in Chapter Two. Last chapter, he took yet another step backward, going 1-2 with a 5.45 ERA. On the season, he owns a sub-.500 record of 7-8 and a 5.52 ERA. This is Gerrit Freakin' Cole we're talking about!

The blame for Akron's disappointing season can be laid entirely at the feet of this starting rotation. Akron's team ERA of 3.81 sits smack-dab in the middle of the BDBL, which is something that would have seemed unfathomable in the preseason.

On the polar opposite end of that spectrum, the Ravenswood pitching staff has exceeded all expectations this year. They currently rank #2 in team ERA (3.18), trailing only the insanely-ridiculous Los Altos Undertakers (2.83). They have allowed the fewest walks and home runs in the BDBL. Infidels relievers have allowed only 22% of their inherited baserunners to score -- again, second to only the insanely-ridiculous Undertakers.

Offensively, the Infidels rank among the bottom half of the league in runs scored, with triple-slash stats that are all around league average. GM Skiz Potrafka just picked up another weapon against lefties, adding Albert Pujols (.351/.400/.746 vs. LH in MLB '22) to the lineup at the cost of a $6.5 million Zack Greinke. That should help.

Story #4: Myrtle Beach Meltdown

What the hell happened to the Myrtle Beach Hitmen? They were my pick to win the EL championship this year. They were supposed to be the feel-good story of 2023. After so many years of 100+ loss seasons, this was supposed to be their year. Yet, here we are halfway through the season and the Hitmen are sitting in second place, five games behind the Charlotte Mustangs and only one game ahead of the Chicago Black Sox -- who have spent the entire year rebuilding for next year!

Everything seemed fine before this last chapter. The Hitmen entered Chapter Three with the second-best record in the Eck League and trailed the 'Stangs by only one game. But something went seriously wrong in Chapter Three. Myrtle Beach went a shocking 9-15 on the chapter and were outscored by 22 runs.

There is nothing wrong with the Hitmen offense. They scored roughly the same number of runs per game in Chapter Three (4.6) as they did over the first two chapters (4.8). They even hit a little better (.270/.326/.457) last chapter than they did the prior two chapters (.261/.320/.439). Obviously, the problem must be the pitching staff.

Over the first two chapters, the Hitmen pitching staff posted a 3.17 ERA and allowed an average of 11.5 runners per nine. Last chapter, their ERA ballooned to 5.05 and an average of 12.7 runners per nine. The meltdown was nearly team-wide. EL Pitcher of the Chapter Taijuan Walker and all-star Max Fried both pitched as well in Chapter Three as they did in the first two chapter -- Walker was even better. In the bullpen, Zach Jackson and Steven Okert both got the job done, just as they have all season.

But then there were the others. Starters Tarik Skubal, Christian Javier, and Yu Darvish were rock-solid (194 IP, 3.39 ERA) through the first two chapters of the season. Last chapter, they combined for a 6.62 ERA in 70+ innings. In the bullpen, Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, Tyler Matzek, Colin Holderman, Joe Jimenez, and Matt Wisler combined for a 2.37 ERA in over 102 innings through the first two chapters. Last chapter, they combined for a whopping 10.53 ERA in 48+ innings!

It's probably safe to say a little regression is in order and Myrtle Beach's pitching will return to form. Charlotte GM Tony Chamra, however, is already stocking up for the Tournament of Randomness. His acquisition of J.P. Feyereisen last chapter is the equivalent of launching a test missile over enemy airspace. The Mustangs own the best record in the Eck League and a cushy five-game lead in the division. The Hitmen not only have an uphill battle to fight in their own division, but the EL wildcard race is shaping up to be a bloodbath. The second half of this season should be very interesting.

Story #5: The Battle of the Luhnings

The elder Luhning led the Higuera Division with a 14-10 record in Chapter Three, while the younger Luhning went just 11-13. That cut the younger Luhning's division lead to just two games as we head into the second half of this season. However, given that the elder Luhning has just traded Albert Pujols and Zack Greinke for future considerations, it seems as though his heart just isn't in this race. Either that, or maybe he owes his brother one.

The division-leading South Philly Gritty were outscored by 22 runs in Chapter Three. They took three of four from the second-place Kansas Law Dogs in head-to-head play, but were somehow swept by the last-place Virginia Sovereigns, who own the worst record (.300) in the BDBL. The Law Dogs, who aren't even trying to win, swept the Sovereigns in their series. They also swept the South Loop Furies and nearly swept the South Carolina Sea Cats.

Is Chris Luhning really throwing in the towel? Or is he just practicing some of that good ol' fashioned Nic Weiss-style arbitrage? If Chapter Four is anything like Chapter Three, the Law Dogs will own at least a share of first place. What then? If the elder Luhning decides to reverse course it wouldn't be the first time that has happened in this league's history.

Story #6: Can Anyone Stop the Undertakers?

Ho-hum. Just another 110-win season with a 300+ runs differential. How many times have we seen this movie before? Well, in our 25-year history a total of 20 teams have won 110 or more games in a season. Seven out of those twenty were Los Altos teams.

Fifteen teams have outscored their opponents by 300 or more runs. Five of them were Los Altos teams.

Twelve teams have accomplished both: 110+ wins and a 300+ runs differential. Four of those were Los Altos teams.

Incredibly enough, out of those twelve monster teams above, only five made it to the World Series, and only three won the championship. Of course, two out of those three were Los Altos teams.