March, 2023
2023 BDBL
Farm Report
Great farm systems often result in
great teams. Some of these teams use their farm players to win games for
the team that invested in them. Some use their farm players
as trade bait. Last year, the Akron Ryche used a combination of both.
Former farmhands Ronald Acuna, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and
Austin Riley did most of the heavy lifting to win that trophy. Another
former Akron farmhand (and our new #1 prospect in baseball), Gunnar
Henderson, was shipped off for additional firepower used to attain that
trophy.
When you play in a league like ours,
where every team is constrained by the same exact salary cap, the team that
manages to squeeze the most production out of their $63.5 million wins.
When great players carry cheap contracts, that allows teams to shift
more money toward those veteran free agents with a guaranteed immediate
impact. A prime example of this dynamic is our heavily-favored
favorites, the Los Altos Undertakers. Los Altos is spending just
$300,000 on full-time players Bo Bichette, Stephen Kwan, and Kyle Tucker.
All three were former Undertaker farmhands.
That freed them up to splurge $11 million on Max Scherzer.
This annual farm report isn't a perfect
measurement of the quality of our farm systems.
Especially now, after farm expansion, many of the best prospects in this
report aren't ranked because they aren't yet professionals.
Also, different sources have different criteria as to who qualifies for their
ranking. This report is, however, a handy snapshot in time, showing how
good the pros on our farm squads are at this particular moment.
Historically, the teams that rank toward the top of this report tend to have a great deal of success in the
years that follow.
In case you've forgotten, the methodology
of this exercise is simple. I collect top-100 lists from various sources, assign 100
points to the #1 prospect on each list, 99 points to the #2 prospect,
and so on. Then I sum it all up and add it to our handy-dandy chart
below. This year, our "panel of experts" includes
Baseball America (BA), MLB.com, ESPN, and Baseball Prospectus (BP).
|
Tm |
Total Pts |
23 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
09 |
08 |
07 |
06 |
05 |
04 |
03 |
02 |
01 |
00 |
|
CHI |
2,066 |
1 |
15 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
13 |
15 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
13 |
15 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
10 |
14 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
|
CLT |
2,007 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
5 |
11 |
7 |
14 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
10 |
21 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
20 |
24 |
|
LKN |
1,947 |
3 |
4 |
12 |
8 |
14 |
14 |
19 |
9 |
5 |
17 |
22 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
13 |
20 |
4 |
22 |
19 |
14 |
|
NIA |
1,712 |
4 |
12 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
11 |
23 |
24 |
6 |
9 |
23 |
|
ISP |
1,522 |
5 |
5 |
15 |
17 |
20 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
24 |
18 |
22 |
11 |
24 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
|
HLF |
1,508 |
6 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
17 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
16 |
11 |
15 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
14 |
15 |
|
FLG |
1,173 |
7 |
18 |
16 |
13 |
22 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
22 |
20 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
23 |
22 |
15 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
|
DBW |
986 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
16 |
18 |
11 |
21 |
23 |
18 |
15 |
9 |
15 |
13 |
16 |
21 |
20 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
6 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
|
LVF |
940 |
9 |
6 |
13 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
21 |
20 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
18 |
22 |
20 |
11 |
10 |
14 |
15 |
21 |
17 |
13 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
|
KAN |
842 |
10 |
20 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
12 |
6 |
19 |
18 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
22 |
23 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
11 |
16 |
11 |
4 |
|
CLE |
789 |
11 |
19 |
21 |
15 |
9 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
19 |
19 |
16 |
10 |
21 |
20 |
13 |
19 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
20 |
|
MBH |
675 |
12 |
13 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
9 |
24 |
24 |
7 |
18 |
12 |
21 |
21 |
7 |
13 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
|
DCM |
626 |
13 |
22 |
11 |
16 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
10 |
1 |
24 |
8 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
19 |
10 |
23 |
17 |
12 |
19 |
|
SCS |
483 |
14 |
9 |
17 |
14 |
19 |
21 |
14 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
12 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
12 |
5 |
9 |
13 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
17 |
|
AKR |
466 |
15 |
8 |
19 |
22 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
16 |
11 |
14 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
12 |
8 |
23 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
15 |
13 |
2 |
9 |
|
RAV |
441 |
16 |
14 |
23 |
20 |
11 |
7 |
17 |
13 |
12 |
19 |
11 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
22 |
24 |
23 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
13 |
5 |
|
SPG |
384 |
17 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
12 |
9 |
8 |
12 |
4 |
13 |
8 |
13 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
18 |
18 |
8 |
|
SLF |
370 |
18 |
7 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
10 |
18 |
9 |
23 |
10 |
20 |
8 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
7 |
8 |
15 |
10 |
|
BBB |
362 |
19 |
16 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
17 |
7 |
17 |
14 |
22 |
9 |
17 |
5 |
4 |
20 |
22 |
18 |
22 |
8 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
5 |
13 |
|
VIR |
298 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
24 |
23 |
15 |
20 |
22 |
11 |
12 |
21 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
13 |
16 |
6 |
13 |
4 |
16 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
18 |
|
MUL |
226 |
21 |
17 |
3 |
9 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
2 |
13 |
9 |
23 |
23 |
20 |
6 |
10 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
10 |
7 |
1 |
|
LAU |
181 |
22 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
4 |
4 |
23 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
19 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
19 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
|
BCJ |
102 |
23 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
17 |
23 |
22 |
14 |
19 |
24 |
6 |
6 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
23 |
9 |
3 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
21 |
|
PHI |
42 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
21 |
6 |
17 |
24 |
18 |
16 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
16 |
9 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
6 |
#1
Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Eury Perez
(10), Jordan Lawlar (14), Bobby Miller (21), Gavin Williams (27), Tyler
Soderstrom (40), Josh Jung (54), Kevin Parada (57), Dalton Rushing (92),
Spencer Jones (99), Connor Norby (105), Jace Jung (108), Jett Williams
(113), Owen Cassie (123), Cole Young (143)
Unranked prospects: Mason Auer, Derek Curiel, Cody Schrier, Sal
Stewart, Cristian Vaquero
I have seen Perez compared to Pedro
Martinez, which means John Gill could have the opportunity to trade yet another
Cy Young winner to Jeff Paulson. I kid, I kid! (Sort of.) Perez came to
Chicago in a preseason trade with Akron, in which Bryan Reynolds was the
main prize. Despite the fact that he doesn't turn 20 until April, he
could make the leap to MLB as early as this summer. Lawlar was the sixth
overall pick in the 2021 MLB draft. In two pro seasons, he has hit for
both average and power, and has swiped 40 bases in just 96 games. Like
Perez, he's an early bloomer, having reached Double-A at age 19.
Along with Perez, Miller gives Chicago
two of the top six pitching prospects in baseball. This is unusual for a
franchise that has traditionally focused on offense. Unless something
tragic happens, he will likely graduate from the farm this year.
Williams gives Chicago three of the top eight pitching prospects in the
game. (What is happening here?!) Like the other two, he throws hard, has
great stuff, with several plus pitches, and is close to debuting in The
Show. Chicago could have a logjam behind the plate with Parada and
Soderstrom, but it's more likely that Soderstrom moves to first base.
The Jung brothers could give Chicago two power-hitting infielders
someday. The well-traveled Norby has already been traded twice since he
was drafted in the first round (15th overall) this winter.
#2
Charlotte Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Francisco
Alvarez (3), Marcelo Mayer (11), Curtis Mead (24), Miguel Vargas (43),
Brandon Pfaadt (45), Tink Hence (52), Harry Ford (59), Owen White (71),
Edgar Quero (80), Jackson Jobe (83)
Unranked prospects: Brady House, Kevin McGonigle, Felix Valerio,
Cayden Wallace, Gunnar Hoglund, Ty Madden, Cristian Mena, Chase Petty,
Jun-Seok Shim, Blake Walston
Charlotte has now ranked #2 in this
survey for two years in a row. They came just 60 points away from
ranking #1, which would have been the first time in franchise history
that has happened. The amazing part is that their best prospect from
last year, Julio Rodriguez, graduated to the big leagues and the
Mustangs still managed to hold onto their #2 ranking. That happened, in
large part, by the addition of Mead in a preseason trade with Akron this
winter. The additions of Pfaadt and Hence in the midseason farm draft
last year also helped.
With Adley Rutschman (finally!!!)
graduating to the big leagues last year, Alvarez has now become the top
catching prospect in baseball. He has already made his big league debut,
and is likely to stick, so for the second year in a row, Charlotte will
lose the #3 prospect in baseball to the big leagues. (Note: this is a
good problem to have.) Mayer, the fourth overall pick in the 2021 MLB
draft, looked great in his full-season A-ball debut last year,
displaying more power than the scouting reports suggested. Mead climbed
all the way to Triple-A last year, but an elbow injury could derail his
2023 season.
Pfaadt and Hence have two of the
funniest names in baseball, but both are pretty good pitching prospects
nonetheless. Pfaadt struck out more batters (218) last year than any
minor league pitcher in over twenty years. Hence has been handled
gingerly by the Cardinals, but is electric when he's allowed to pitch.
Ford could have provided Alvarez with some competition for the Mustangs
catching position, but the stupid DH ruined that. Quero gives Charlotte
three of the top ten catching prospects in baseball, according to
MLB.com.
#3
Lake Norman Monsters
Ranked prospects: Gunnar
Henderson (1), Elly De La Cruz (6), Jackson Holliday (13), Jackson
Merrill (15), Colton Cowser (33), Jordan Westburg (67), Coby Mayo (73),
D.L. Hall (105)
Unranked prospects: Joshua Baez, Samuel Basallo, Josue De Paula,
Bryce Eldridge, Justin Foscue, Walker Jenkins, Jeferson Quero, Rhett
Lowder, Noble Meyer, Brandon Williamson
Henderson is the unanimous #1 prospect
in baseball according to our four top-100 lists. This is the first time
in history this franchise has owned the #1 prospect. In fact, this is
the first time the Monsters farm has included a top-six prospect. You
have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a top-ten prospect
(Francisco Rodriguez) on this farm club. Henderson came to Lake Norman
in one of Joe Demski's many unheralded and outstanding 2022 trades. In
exchange for Cal Quantrill, Wilmer Flores, Kenta Maeda, and Mike
Baumann, the Akron Ryche sent not only Henderson to the Monsters, but
Alejandro Kirk, Anthony Santander, Cristian Javier, and two others! That
one trade not only turned the Monsters into 2023 contenders, but gave
them a possible franchise player (Henderson) as well.
De La Cruz leaped all the way from #71
to #6 in this report after a monster year at the High-A and Double-A
levels. He smashed 28 homers in just 120 games and added 47 steals (in
53 attempts) for good measure. If he doesn't graduate to the big leagues
this year, he could rank #1 a year from now, which would give this
franchise two in a row. Another contender for that #1 spot is Holliday,
who held his own at the Low-A level at age 18 after he was selected #1
overall in the MLB draft. Merrill, the #2 overall pick in our own farm
draft this year, is the highest-ranked prospect from that draft, and the
only one in the top-75.
Of the unranked group, Jenkins is
currently ranked by BA as the #6 prospect in the 2023 MLB draft. Lowder
and Meyer are ranked #14 and #15, respectively.
#4
Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Jordan
Walker (4), James Wood (12), Druw Jones (19), Evan Carter (26), Jasson
Dominguez (47), Cam Collier (54), Alec Burleson (135)
Unranked prospects: Warming Bernabel, Emmanuel Bonilla, Jaison
Chourio, Rayne Doncon, Konnor Griffin, Brailer Guerrero, Anthony
Gutierrez, Hendry Mendez, Arjun Nimmala, Axiel Plaz, Jose Rodriguez,
Sebastian Walcott, Mason Black
There are two features of the Niagara
farm system that we can reliably count upon each and every year: it will be filled
with teenagers younger than age 18, and it will be comprised almost
entirely of hitters. These features are as true in 2023 as they were in
2010 when Mike Ranney first took over this franchise. In the fourteen years
that Ranney has presided over this farm system, it has ranked among the
top five an astounding eleven times. In those fourteen seasons, the
Locks have owned a top-five prospect eleven times, and has owned a
top-ten prospect twelve years in a row now. Absolutely incredible.
With the graduation of Bobby Witt (#2)
to the big leagues this past year, Walker has stepped up to fill that
gap, all the way from #21 a year ago. In two full seasons of
professional ball, he has proven that he can hit for average and power.
He looks like a middle-of-the-lineup type of hitter, and he should
arrive soon. Like most Niagara prospects, he was acquired at age 17. At
age 20, Wood was practically an old man when Ranney nabbed him in the
second round of the 2022 draft. Jones ranks in the top-20 despite
tearing his labrum last year and missing the entire season. Dominguez
was one of Niagara's many, many, age-16 Latin American lottery tickets
acquired over the years. If you look at that unranked list, you'll find
about a dozen more of them.
#5
North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs
Ranked prospects: Andrew
Painter (8), Diego Cartaya (16), Kyle Harrison (20), Mick Abel (39),
Kyle Manzardo (69), Max Meyer (70), Griff McGarry (89), Jose Salas (129)
Unranked prospects: Maui Ahuna, Angel Martinez, Matt Shaw, Jake
Eder, Dax Fulton, Thomas Harrington, Jaden Hill, Tanner Witt, Simeon
Woods Richardson
The Pigs rank #5 in this survey for the
second year in a row despite the fact that their top prospect from last
year, Alek Thomas, graduated to the big leagues. Painter and Grayson
Rodriguez are both tied for #8 overall, and are both tied for owning the
distinction of being the best pitching prospect in baseball. Painter is
the highest-ranked prospect this franchise has had since Prince Fielder
(#5) way back in 2006. He is still just 19 years old, and has only
pitched five games above the A-ball level, but he should move very
quickly up the ladder.
According to our combined ranking,
Cartaya is the second-best catching prospect in baseball behind
Francisco Alvarez. In roughly one full season (661 AB) as a pro, Cartaya
owns a career triple-slash line of .269/.380/.502 with 36 homers and 40
doubles. Lefty Harrison and righty Abel both have the stuff to fill a
spot at the front of the rotation. Manzardo was added during the draft
in the Merrill Kelly deal. He's a typical 1B/DH power hitter.
Of the unranked group, Shaw (#12) and
Ahuna (#25) are both pegged as first-rounders in this year's MLB draft.
#6
Highland Freedom
Ranked prospects: Jackson
Chourio (6), Brett Baty (18), Colson Montgomery (28), Royce Lewis (46),
Henry Davis (56), Elijah Green (65), Bryce Miller (109), Masataka
Yoshida (130), Brock Porter (137)
Unranked prospects: Ricardo Cabrera, Nick Gonzales, Ethan
Holliday, Blaze Jordan, Brandon Mayea, Kristian Robinson, Joendry
Vargas, Sixto Sanchez, Roki Sasaki, Thomas White, Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Chourio was the biggest breakout
prospect in the minor leagues last year. He came out of absolutely
nowhere and leaped from the unranked a year ago all the way to #6 this
year. Although he tore up the Low-A level last year, he struggled a bit
at the higher levels. If I had to pick one prospect who will drop in the ranking this year, it would be him. Yoshida was the #1 overall pick
in our farm draft this year. The predictions as to how he will hit MLB
pitching have been a mixed bag. Some believe he will thrive, while
others believe he'll struggle. Because most prospect lists do not
include Japanese professionals, only Baseball America ranked him this
year, at #87.
Baty has the bat to stick in the big
leagues, but some question his glove. Montgomery, a first-round MLB
draft pick in 2021, was ranked all the way at #15 by ESPN, but received
a ranking in the 30's by the other three outlets. Lewis was a top-10
prospect as recently as 2019, but missed the entire 2020 and 2021
seasons. He had a nice bounce-back year last year and ended up getting
twelve cups of coffee in September. Green has some of the loudest tools in
baseball, but also strikes out a crap-ton.
The Freedom have gone all-in on the
Japanese market, locking up not only Yoshida, but also a couple of
pitchers still stuck in Japan: Yamamoto and Sasaki. Both are considered
to be among the best pitchers in Japan, and both are expected to
eventually come to the U.S. Of the two, Sasaki has a much higher
ceiling, but at age 20 is years away from a U.S. debut.
#7
Flagstaff Peaks
Ranked prospects: Ricky
Tiedemann (23), Sal Frelick (34), Logan O'Hoppe (53), George Valera
(64), Kodai Senga (74), Ryan Pepiot (77), Marco Raya (92), Orelvis
Martinez (107), Wilmer Flores (109), Maikel Garcia (118), Jarlin Susana
(128)
Unranked prospects: Tyler Black, Justin Dirden, Alfredo Duno,
Drew Gilbert, Jung-hoo Lee, Austin Martin, Ivan Melendez, Brandon
Berreira, Connor Prielipp, A.J. Smith-Shawver, Anthony Solometo
This is Greg Newgard's second year at
the helm of the Peaks franchise. In that short time, he's managed to
improve his farm club from a #18 ranking a year ago all the way to #7.
Of the eleven ranked prospects above, all eleven were acquired by
Newgard. Arguably the most impactful of them all, Senga, was picked up
this winter in a salary dump deal with Myrtle Beach. Senga, who was
ranked #16 by Baseball America (the only outlet that included him in their
ranking) will make an immediate impact on this club next year. Frelick
was also acquired this winter in a salary dump deal with Florida. He
also could make an impact on this franchise as early as next year, as he
leaped three levels in 2022.
Tiedemann, O'Hoppe, Susana, and Flores
were Flagstaff's first four picks in the midseason farm draft a year
ago. Tiedemann had a sensational year in his pro debut last year, and
looks like a future ace. His career K/9 rate of 13.39 ranks among the
best in the minor leagues, and he's allowed only three home runs in 78+
innings. Of the unranked group, keep an eye on Prielipp. He was
considered to be the best pitcher in the '22 MLB draft class, but fell
to the second round after missing the entire year to Tommy John surgery.
#8
Darien Blue Wave
Ranked prospects: Ezequiel
Tovar (22), Marco Luciano (30), Noelvi Marte (38), Miguel Bleis (85),
Oscar Colas (86), Dylan Lesko (88)
Unranked prospects: Max Clark, Leodalis De Vries, Vladi Miguel
Guerrero, Will Wagner, Matthew Allan, Emerson Hancock, Mason Miller,
Jacob Misiorowski, Kumar Rocker, Thad Ward
This is now the fourth year in a row
the Blue Wave rank among the top ten in this annual survey. Darien
managed to hang on to that top-ten ranking despite losing their top
prospect from a year ago, Riley Greene, to the major leagues. Tovar,
Darien's #1 pick in the midseason farm draft last year, has been known
as a glove-first shortstop prospect up until last year when he suddenly
broke out to hit .318/.386/.545 at Double-A. He managed to earn a cup of
coffee in September, and could stick with the big club out of spring
training.
Marte (#12 last year) and Luciano (#13)
both took a big step back last year, but remain top-40 prospects.
Darien's first-round pick this winter, Bleis, is an excellent candidate
to move up this ranking quickly over the next year. He opened a lot of
eyes in the Florida Complex League last summer, and has five-tool
potential. Among the unranked group, Clark is ranked as the #5 prospect in
the 2023 MLB draft by BA.
#9
Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Anthony
Volpe (5), Grayson Rodriguez (8), Bo Naylor (76), Bryan Ramos (86), Drew
Romo (103), Jack Leiter (118)
Unranked prospects: Yasel Antuna, Hayden Dunhurst, Kody Hoese,
Hao Yu Lee, Cole Roederer, Michael Burrows, Bubba Chandler, Cade Horton,
Andry Lara, Noah Schultz, Jared Shuster, Blade Tidwell
Volpe (#8 last year) and Rodriguez (#5)
were also top-ten prospects a year ago in this report, but have now
switched places in the ranking. Volpe is now the highest-ranked Vegas
hitting prospect since a youngster named Francisco Lindor ranked #7 in
this report back in 2015. (Note: Lindor ranked #6 in 2014.) Volpe had
another rock-solid year last year after moving from Double-A to
Triple-A at age 21. The early reports out of Tampa are that he will be
given the opportunity to win an Opening Day job with the Yankees.
Rodriguez is tied with Andrew Painter
as the top-ranked pitcher in this report. He continued to impress in
Triple-A last year, just as he did at Double-A the year before. In 292
career innings, he's struck out a whopping 419 batters -- an average of
nearly thirteen per nine. There is a good chance that both Volpe and
Rodriguez will graduate off of this list a year from now, which would
leave this farm mostly barren. I can't see any of the other names listed
above leaping into the top-50. Of the others, Leiter has the best chance
-- but only if he can get his plus stuff under control.
#10
Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Termarr
Johnson (31), Taj Bradley (32), Robert Hassell (49), Gordon Graceffo
(74), Andy Pages (109), Junior Caminero (139)
Unranked prospects: Addison Barger, Carlos Jorge, Eddys Leonard,
Nick Loftin, Jonathan Mejia, Braden Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Jose
Ramos, Chase Burns, Andrew Dutkanych, Ben Kudrna
The 'Dogs leaped ten spots in this
ranking over the past year thanks to the ascendance of Johnson, who was
the fourth overall pick of last year's MLB draft, but was drafted by
Kansas way back in the first round of the 2021 winter draft (two freakin'
picks before I was about to take him.) He hasn't done much yet at the
pro level, so his high ranking is all about the scouting reports.
Bradley, acquired in trade this winter, was ranked as high as #20 (MLB)
and as low as #60 (ESPN) by our panel of experts.
Toward the end of this year's farm
draft, GM Chris Luhning attempted to corner the market on the 2024 MLB
draft by selecting Burns, Montgomery, and Dutkanych. All are projected
to be first-rounders in that draft class.
#11
Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Daniel
Espino (17), Gavin Stone (50), Emmanuel Rodriguez (58), Tanner Bibee
(68), Chase DeLauter (125)
Unranked prospects: Vance Honeycutt, Junior Marin, Luis Matos,
James Triantos, Welbyn Vargas, Justin Campbell, Shintaro Fujinami, Cole
Phillips, Royber Salinas
Espino joins Brendan McKay (#13 in
2020) and Kyle Drabek (#20 in 2010) as the only two pitching prospects
in franchise history that rank among the top twenty. That track record
isn't great, but Espino has good enough stuff to break that spell -- if he
can stay healthy. Stone (1st selection), Rodriguez (2nd), and Bibee
(4th) were all acquired during last summer's midseason farm draft. All
three were surprise breakout pitchers in 2022. DeLauter, who was only
ranked by MLB.com (#82), is the only hitter among the ranked prospects.
The unranked group includes Honeycutt, who may or may not be the #1
prospect in the 2024 MLB draft, and Fujinami, who looks like he'll get a
shot at the Oakland starting rotation despite his reported command
issues.
#12
Myrtle Beach Hitmen
Ranked prospects: Corbin
Carroll (2), Zac Veen (37), Jacob Berry (101)
Unranked prospects: Michael Arroyo, Travis Bazzana, Dylan Crews,
Yanquiel Fernandez, Jacob Gonzalez, Hunter Goodman, Cristian Hernandez,
Nick Kurtz, Owen Paino, Bryce Rainer, Jorbit Vivas, Tommy White, Brody
Brecht, Ronan Kopp, Asa Lacy
As a parent, it is always bittersweet
to watch your children go off on their own after you've spent their
entire lifetimes raising them to be decent people. Of course, watching
them leave that nest is the ultimate goal. It is the natural
order of things. Still, although it is only the beginning for the
child, it feels like the end to the parent. I imagine the Hitmen front
office must feel that same bittersweet emotion watching their own
"children" -- MacKenzie Gore, Joey Bart, Dylan Carlson, Andrew Vaughn,
Tarik Skubal, Alex Bohm, Alex Verdugo, Jesse Winker -- take flight from
the Myrtle Beach nest and into their big league adulthoods.
Or maybe not. Yeah, probably not. I'm
guessing the Myrtle Beach front office is more than happy about it.
As happy as they must be about all of
those graduating prospects, they'll be even happier once Carroll becomes
a full-time part of their lineup in 2024. He's the total package:
excellent bat control, power, 80-grade speed, and plus defense. He will
fit in nicely with this exciting young club a year from now. He could
very well be replaced by Veen in the top-ten overall ranking a year from
now. A true five-tool player, Veen has been named the Most Exciting
Player in his league two years in a row. Berry owned one of the best
pure bats and power bats in the 2022 MLB draft, but questions linger
about his defense.
Although the Hitmen farm cupboard is just about barren, two waves of fresh faces are on the way to fill
those shelves. Crews is ranked as the #1 prospect in the '23 MLB draft
by BA. Gonzalez (#3) gives Myrtle Beach two out of the projected top
three. GM Mitch Gill loaded up on '24 prospects this winter as well,
drafting Kurtz, White, Brecht, Paino, and Bazzana in this winter's farm
draft. All five are projected to be first-rounders at this early stage.
#13
D.C. Memorials
Ranked prospects: Edwin
Arroyo (48), Carson Williams (61), Michael Busch (63), Jordan Wicks
(89), Austin Wells (89), Mason Montgomery (127), Alex Ramirez (130),
Trey Sweeney (132), Ivan Herrera (134)
Unranked prospects: Miguel Amaya, Rodrick Arias, Greg Jones,
Cristian Santana, Kahlil Watson, Sam Bachman, Paul Skenes, Cole Wilcox,
Cole Winn, An Woo-Jin
The Memorials ranked #22 a year ago in
this survey, so this is a vast improvement for this rebuilding team. A
year ago, Watson (#38) was this team's only ranked player -- and he
managed to fall completely off the ranking. Sweeney (who was ranked only
by ESPN at #88) is the only member of last year's unranked group who
advanced to the ranked category. All of the other ranked players above
were added at some point over the past year. Of the nine ranked players,
Arroyo is the only one who earned a top-100 ranking from all four
sources. He was the key to the Luis Castillo trade in MLB, and was
acquired by the Memorials this winter in the Starling Marte deal.
Another shortstop, Williams, was a
first-round MLB pick (#28 overall) in 2021. He, along with Ramirez, were
picked up by D.C. at the mid-year farm draft last year. Busch, who was
just recently added in trade, was ranked in the 50s by three of our
sources, but was completely snubbed by ESPN. He is a bat-first prospect
looking for a defensive home. Among the unranked, Skenes could join the
ranked prospects list a year from now. He's currently ranked #8 in the
MLB '23 draft by BA, and is a two-way player presumed to be drafted for
his pitching.
#14
South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Cade
Cavalli (60), Adael Amador (62), Shane Baz (81), Joey Wiemer (95), Ronny
Mauricio (98), Garrett Mitchell (102)
Unranked prospects: Victor Acosta, Jay Allen, Jordan Beck, Denzel
Clarke, Justin Crawford, Dustin Harris, Niko Kavadas, Lazaro Montes,
Enmanual Valdez, Nick Yorke, Aaron Zavala, Will Bednar, Tanner Burns,
Matt Canterino, Robert Gasser, Cole Henry
The Sea Cats once owned this farm
report. They ranked among the top ten nine times from 2008 to 2016, and
thirteen times in the first seventeen years of this annual exercise.
Over the past seven years, however, they have sniffed the top ten only
once, with a #9 showing last year. The biggest reason for the cliff-dive
from #9 a year ago to #14 this year is the season-ending Tommy John
surgery for Baz, who fell from #10 to #81. Only Baseball America (#32)
bothered to rank him at all. TJ surgery isn't a career-ender, and Baz
will be back in 2024 -- maybe better than ever.
Cavalli (#40 last year), Yorke (#30),
and Mauricio (#74) also fell in this ranking since last year, for
various reasons. The only rising star among the bunch is Amador, who was
South Carolina's first selection in last year's midseason farm draft.
#15
Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Endy
Rodriguez (40), Gabriel Moreno (51), Colt Keith (113), Nick Frasso (121)
Unranked prospects: Wuilfredo Antunez, Moises Ballesteros,
Osleivis Basabe, Dylan Beavers, Juan Brito, Yeiner Fernandez, Eddinson
Paulino, Wenceel Perez, Nikau Pouaka-Grego, Mikey Romero, Jose Acuna,
Mitch Bratt, Luis Devers, Will Dion, Yu-Min Lin, Luis Perales, Bryan Woo
The champs would rank much higher on
this report if all four of our expert sources used the same criteria.
Instead, only ESPN and Baseball America consider Moreno to be a prospect,
while MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus do not. Moreno ranks #4 on ESPN's
list and #12 on BA's. If you split the difference and give him a ranking
of #8 for the other two sources, Akron would rank two places higher at
#13. Of the two, it is difficult to choose which is the better catching
prospect at this point: Rodriguez or Moreno. Both have above-average
bats, and both are excellent defensively.
The unranked group is filled with guys
I've never heard of -- almost all of whom have funny names. Just for
grins, I chose a couple at random and looked them up. Moises Ballesteros
played 31 games at the Low-A level at age 18 last year. In his pro
career, he owns a .261/.371/.431 slash line in 360 at-bats. BA ranked
him as the 18th-best Chicago Cubs prospect last summer. Nikau
Pouaka-Grego is a 17-year-old from Australia. He did not make MLB.com's
top-50 international prospects list. You know, I'm thinking that maybe
our farm rosters are too big. Just a thought.
#16
Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Triston
Casas (28), Zach Neto (65), Luisangel Acuna (112)
Unranked prospects: Carlos Colmenarez, Zack Gelof, Gabriel
Gonzalez, Damon Keith, Grant McCray, Jhonkensy Noel, Shane Sasaki,
Daniel Susac, Brayan Bello, Kyler Bush, Wilkelman Gonzalez, Thatcher
Hurd, Reese Olson, Carson Seymour, Emmet Sheehan, Huston Waldrep
Casas already has 27 MLB games under
his belt, and is likely to be Boston's everyday first baseman in 2023.
He owns a career .858 OPS in the minor leagues, and there is no reason
to doubt that he will continue to hit as a big leaguer. Neto (#13) and
Susac (#19) were both first-round picks in the 2022 MLB draft. Waldrep
is expected to be a first-rounder this year. Hurd is projected to be a
first-rounder in 2024. Acuna was just recently acquired from the Los
Altos organization. The younger brother of Ronald was ranked #71 by
MLB.com, but not by any of the other three sources. According to MLB.com,
the younger Acuna "may not have his older brother's superstar ceiling,
but he does have the potential for solid tools across the board."
#17
South Philly Gritty
Ranked prospects: Masyn Winn
(35), Brayan Rocchio (72), Matthew Liberatore (121), Yainer Diaz (125),
Casey Schmidt (137)
Unranked prospects: Jose Gerardo, Moises Gomez, Gilberto Jimenez,
Brock Jones, Matt McLain, Jacob Melton, Ethan Wilson, Jacob Wilson, Beau
Brieske, Taylor Dollard, Cooper Hjerpe, Jackson Rutledge, T.J. Sikkema
The Gritty franchise has had a reliably
consistent farm ranking through the years, finishing in the top ten
fourteen times in 24 years. This is their lowest ranking since 2002 --
over twenty years ago! Last year's tenth-ranked farm club lost a couple
of good ones in Reid Detmers (#27) and Jeremy Pena (#65). Both will help
the Gritty win a lot of games in 2023. Is there another Detmers or Pena
on this farm club? It doesn't seem likely.
Winn is the only Gritty prospect that
appears on all four source lists. He was solely a glove-first prospect
up until last year when his bat suddenly woke up. He now looks like he
could be a decent full-time MLB shortstop within the next few years.
Rocchio and Liberatore seem like they've appeared on this report
forever. Both dropped in this ranking over the past year. Diaz should
have received more love from our panel of experts than he did. Only BA
(at #82) bothered to rank him, likely because he's unlikely to stick at
catcher. His bat would play anywhere, though.
#18
South Loop Furies
Ranked prospects: Pete
Crow-Armstrong (25), Kevin Alcantara (92), Brennen Davis (117), Kyle
Muller (136)
Unranked prospects: Bryan Acuna, Vaun Brown, Cam Caminiti, Xavier
Edwards, Pablo Guerrero, Justin-Henry Molloy, Nick Bitsko, Jackson
Ferris, Bryce Jarvis, J.R. Ritchie, Landon Sams, Robby Snelling, Darius
Vines, Yosver Zulueta
Davis had a tough year last year. He
was this team's top prospect a year ago, ranked #18 overall, but hit
below .200 at three different levels last year due in large part to a
back injury. He's still enough of a prospect that BA (#84) and MLB.com
(#92) both included him in their rankings. Armstrong followed the exact
opposite path. He was unranked a year ago, but leaped into the top-25
after a breakout season in which he posted a 1.000 OPS at the Low-A
level and an .831 OPS at High-A. Alcantara completes the Chicago Cubs
outfield trio. He played his first full season last year, resulting in
an intriguing power/speed combo.
Just to illustrate how ridiculous our
league has become, 2007 wasn't that long ago. George W. Bush was
president. Barack Hussein Obama announced his candidacy for president.
The first-generation iPhone was released. The Departed won the
Oscar for Best Picture. We celebrated BDBL Weekend in Kansas City and
St. Louis. We took a tour of the Budweiser brewery. David Ortiz hit 79
homers for the Badgers. The Kansas Law Dogs won the BDBL trophy. Oh, and
Cam Caminiti was born.
#19
Blacksburg Beamers
Ranked prospects: Hunter
Brown (36), Gavin Cross (78), Quinn Priester (100)
Unranked prospects: Tyler Callihan, Jack Hurley, Yohandry
Morales, Samuel Munoz, Tanner Schobel, Kendall Simmons, Logan Tanner,
Shawn Dubin, Nic Enright, D.J. Herz, Hayden Juenger, Alec Marsh
Brown has advanced so rapidly through
the minor leagues, he made it all the way to the MLB World Series last
year, and now appears to have a job in the starting rotation on Opening
Day. He was Tom DiStefano's third pick in the midseason farm draft in
2021. Cross was Dylan Badger's first-ever draft pick, selected in the
first round of the 2022 winter farm draft. Priester and Tanner are
former first-round MLB draft picks. Morales is currently ranked as the
#16 prospect (by BA) in the 2023 MLB draft.
#20
Virginia Sovereigns
Ranked prospects: Oswald
Peraza (44), Ken Waldichuk (82), Everson Pereira (118)
Unranked prospects: Andres Chaparro, Deyvison De Los Santos,
Keiner Delgado, Anthony Garcia, Anthony Hall, Trevor Hauver, Ryan Lasko,
Eguy Rosario, Jared Serna, Jurrangelo Cijntje, Richard Fitts, Luis Gil,
Luis Medina, Dahian Santos, Luis Serna, Miguel Ullola, Will Warren
I will resist the temptation to beat
the All-Yankees dead horse yet again. If you want my take on this
strategy, simply re-read any of the past seven BDBL Farm Reports. Since
Tony Badger took over this legendary franchise in 2016, the Sovereigns
farm has ranked among the bottom four six times in seven years. In those
seven years, no Sovereign farmhand has ranked higher than #40 (the
infamous Estevan Florial) in this report. Peraza was ranked #34 by ESPN,
but was also ranked as low as #62 (BA). It seems likely that he will
begin the 2023 season as the starting shortstop for the Yankees, but he
has a shit-ton of competition for that job -- notably Anthony Volpe.
Former Yankee Waldichuk is also likely to make the big league team out
of spring training. That leaves only Pereira, who could also graduate
from this list by this time next year.
#21
Florida Mulligans
Ranked prospects: Brooks Lee
(42)
Unranked prospects: Felnin Celesten, Fernando Cruz, Wyatt
Langford, Jackson Linn, Aiden Miller, Benny Montgomery, Ryan Noda, Ethan
Salas, Michael Sirota, Brayden Taylor, Brock Wilken, Pierce Coppola,
Chase Dollander, Michael Grove, Gabriel Hughes, Luis Morales, Peyton
Pallette, Travis Sykora, Brandon Walter
The Mulligans are a perfect example of
why this annual report is imperfect. Florida has some of the most
exciting prospects in the game, but rank 21st in this report due to the
fact that almost all of these prospects are still amateurs and therefore
unqualified for any of the four top prospect lists. Lee, the eighth
overall pick in last year's MLB draft, had an impressive pro debut and
looks like he will move quickly up the ladder. Langford, Miller, Taylor,
Wilken, Dollander, and Sykora are all expected to be early first-round
picks in this year's MLB draft. Linn, Sirota, Coppola, and Hughes are
all targeted to be first-rounders in 2024. Celesten, Salas, and Morales
are among the top international prospects in 2023, and Cruz is the top
international prospect in the 2024 class. This farm team won't be ranked
this low for much longer.
#22
Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Ceddanne
Rafaela (79), Nick Nastrini (95), Luis Ortiz (116), Heston Kjerstad
(123), Drey Jameson (140), Jonathan Aranda (140), Samuel Zavala (143),
Edouard Julien (145)
Unranked prospects: Enrique Bradfield, Eric Brown, Christian
Encarnacion-Strand, Gleider Figuereo, Yasser Mercedes, Nelson Rada,
Prelander Berroa, Joey Cantillo, Chris Rodriguez, Carson Whisenhunt,
Forrest Whitley
Once upon a time, Jeff Paulson was the
butt of many jokes about drafting teens and pre-teens for his farm club
every year. This year, Paulson adopted the old Tom DiStefano strategy
and zigged while the rest of the league zagged. Of his nine picks in
this winter's farm draft, three (Julien, Nastrini, and Zavala) are
ranked. There were only twelve players in that draft who are ranked, and
Los Altos owns one quarter of them. Yet another ranked prospect,
Jameson, was acquired by Paulson in the 20th round of the draft at a
cool salary of $1 million. He is my pick to become this year's Spencer
Strider. Rafaela is my pick to become this year's Jackson Chourio.
#23
Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Logan
Allen (84), Joey Ortiz (103)
Unranked prospects: Blaze Alexander, Aeverson Arteaga, Alexander
Canario, Jonatan Clase, Tyler Gentry, Matt Gorski, Pedro Leon, Tyler
Locklear, Matthew Lugo, Malcom Nunez, Alexfri Planez, Jairo Pomares,
Jose A. Rodriguez, Peyton Battenfield, Reggie Crawford, Norge Vera, Nick
Zwack
Allen was ranked #53 by ESPN, but did
not make the cut for MLB.com or Baseball Prospectus. Ortiz barely made
the BA (#95) and MLB (#99) lists, and was left off the BP list
completely. This makes the fourth year in a row the Jamboree farm has
ranked among the bottom two. Given that I've never heard of any of the
guys on the unranked list, the odds are fairly decent that the Jamboree
will make it five in a row next year.
Just for fun, I looked up a couple of
those unranked guys at random. Matt Gorski is an outfielder with the
Pirates who reached the Triple-A level last year at age 24. He owns a
career batting line of .243/.317/.464, with 44 homers in 823 at-bats.
Nick Zwack is a left-handed pitcher for the boring Giants. He was a 17th
round draft pick in 2021, and has yet to reach the Double-A level at age
23. His numbers against younger competition look good, though. So, now
you all know who these guys are. You're welcome.
#24
Philadelphia Fightin's
Ranked prospects: Brice
Turang (113), Matt Mervis (132)
Unranked prospects: Yiddi Cappe, Yoelqui Cespedes, Reivaj Garcia,
Miguel Hiraldo, Ed Howard, Kevin Made, P.J. Morlando, Michael Mullinax,
Johan Rojas, Alexander Vargas, Ben Brown, Seth Corry
Turang is ranked #72 by ESPN, and
Mervis is ranked #88 by Baseball Prospectus. Neither prospect was ranked
by anyone else in this report. Both Turang and Mervis are likely to
graduate off of this list over the next year, leaving this team without
a ranked prospect. No name on the unranked list jumps out at me as
someone who could be ranked a year from now. The two most intriguing
names are Morlando and Mullinax, but both are eligible for the 2024 MLB
draft, which means we wouldn't see their names on this report until 2025
at the earliest.
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