May, 2023

Chapter Two Recap

Players of the Chapter

"Goldy to Cleveland doesn�t make a lick of sense. It reminds me of that year when Doyle went big on Joey Votto and finished with 100+ losses."

-- Me, January 4, 2023.

As I type, the Cleveland Rocks are in second-place in the Griffin Division, four games above .500 and ten games behind the insanely-dominant Los Altos Undertakers. The Rocks are only four games behind in the OL wildcard race despite scoring only 239 runs so far (7th-ranked in the OL.) Just two chapters into this season, Paul Goldschmidt has already racked up 64 runs created. That is more than one-quarter (26%) of Cleveland's entire total! He is carrying the entire Rocks offense on his back. In Chapter Two, he hit a whopping .380/.471/.780 (leading the league in each slash category), with 38.3 runs created. The next-highest RC total in the OL in Chapter Two was just 22.8 (Yordan F'ing Alvarez.) The Rocks have gotten their money's worth from Goldy, but can one man continue to carry the entire team through the full 160-game season? I guess we'll find out.

Way back in 2012, the Salem Cowtippers were desperately trying to eke their way into the playoffs through the OL wildcard. They managed to achieve that feat, winning the wildcard by just two games. They then faced the New Milford Blazers in the OLDS and were promptly dispatched in just six games. Salem wouldn't have had that honor of losing to New Milford if not for a midseason trade in which they acquired Yovani Gallardo, Daniel Hudson, Addison Reed, and Marco Estrada from Tony Chamra's Villanova Mustangs. In exchange, Salem sacrificed six players. One of those players, a young high schooler by the name of Carlos Correa, is our EL Hitter of the Chapter. He hit .358/.425/.600 for the South Philly Gritty, and created a league-leading 32.2 runs.

Yes, Tony Chamra got the better of me in 2012 when he got a franchise player in exchange for a bunch of guys who failed to help me win a trophy. But four years later, I returned the favor. In the winter of 2016, Chamra was desperate to shed salary. Ryan Zimmerman was due to earn $9 million in the final year of his contract, but played less than half a season in MLB. I was happy to take his salary in exchange for a player still stuck in Japan by the name of Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani, our OL Pitcher of the Chapter, went a perfect 6-0 in Chapter Two, and is now a perfect 10-0 on the season. He posted a 1.57 ERA and held opponents to a .161/.252/.241 batting line.

The North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs were one of the surprise teams of the chapter (story below) thanks in large part to the EL Pitcher of the Chapter, James Kaprielian. Kap went just 2-2 in his four starts, but posted a 1.82 ERA (third in the EL) and held opponents to a miniscule .140/.204/.290 batting line. His teammate, someone by the name of Jaime Barria, went 5-3 on the chapter, posted a 2.02 ERA, and held opponents to a .180/.240/.295 batting line. Talk about a pair of unlikely heroes!

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Florida Leapfrogs Over Darien

After the first twenty games of the season, in which the Florida Mulligans got off to a 9-11 start, if you had told me I'd be three games ahead of the Darien Blue Wave after two chapters of play, I would have called you a no-good, dirty, stinking, liar. Yet, here we are. Go figure.

Florida went a remarkable 21-7 in Chapter Two thanks to a dramatic reversal of fortune with our pitching staff. Florida pitchers allowed a whopping 144 runs (7th most in the BDBL) in Chapter One, and posted a 4.94 team ERA. Last chapter, we led the entire BDBL in fewest runs allowed (76) and posted a BDBL-best 2.53 team ERA. What changed? Absolutely nothing. Same pitchers, and yet completely opposite results. Welcome to Diamond Mind Baseball.

Meanwhile, the Darien Blue Wave went just 14-14 in Chapter Two following a dominant 20-8 Chapter One performance. They outscored their opponents by a BDBL-best 86 runs in Chapter One, but saw that margin fall to just nine runs in Chapter Two. Again, nothing changed as far as their personnel. Same players, completely different performance.

At least some of the difference for both teams can be explained by their strength of schedules. In Chapter One, Darien faced only one opponent with a winning record and four teams that are currently in last place. In Chapter Two, Darien faced five teams that are above .500, including four teams that are in first place. The Mulligans faced four winning teams in Chapter One, but only three in Chapter Two.

Given the above, how does Chapter Three shake out for both teams? Florida will face just two winning teams, including the first-place Lake Norman Monsters. Darien will face three winning teams, including the red-hot Myrtle Beach Hitmen. Hopefully, this means Florida can gain a little more ground before the all-star break, because it looks like we'll have an uphill battle in the second half of this season.

Story #2: Benes Division All Tied Up

The defending-champion Akron Ryche began this season with a mediocre 14-14 showing in Chapter One, but then turned things around in Chapter Two, going 20-8 to capture a share of first place in the Benes Division. Akron's offense scored nearly identical run totals (130 vs. 131) in the first two chapters, so the main reason for the turnaround was their pitching staff, which reduced its number of runs allowed by over twenty.

Gerrit Cole posted an ugly 6.35 ERA in Chapter One, but improved somewhat to 4.85 in Chapter Two. His continued struggles remain one of the league's greatest mysteries in 2023. Nasty Nestor Cortez posted nearly-identical ERA's in Chapters One and Two, but received a lot more run support in the second chapter, resulting in a perfect 5-0 record.

Brandon Woodruff (4.13 ERA in Chapter One) completely collapsed in Chapter Two, with a 1-2 record and a 6.00 ERA in four starts. Corbin Burnes (3.68 in Chapter One, 3.38 in Chapter Two) was roughly the same pitcher in both chapters.

The main improvement came from the Akron bullpen, where no fewer than six relievers posted a sub-2.00 ERA in Chapter Two. Wade Miley, David Robertson, John Schreiber, and Josh Hader combined for five of Akron's twenty wins in the chapter.

Ravenswood went just 14-14 on the chapter, but it was mostly as a result of bad luck. They outscored their opponents by a respectable 18 runs, but lost seven out of ten one-run games, including two 1-0 heartbreakers. It seems more than likely that this division race will go down to the wire. I expect the winner of this division won't be decided until the very last week of the season.

Story #3: Ho-Hum, Another 20-Win Chapter

The Los Altos Undertakers are on the way to yet another historic season, beginning this season with back-to-back 20-win chapters. Los Altos is on pace to win 114 games this season. That would be the twelfth time in twenty-five seasons in which the Undertakers will have won 100+ games. (That's basically HALF of our league's history, folks!) It would be the fifth time Los Altos will have won 114 or more games in a season -- needless to say, a league record.

Los Altos leads the league with a +125 runs differential. The next-highest total in the entire BDBL is just +95 by the Darien Blue Wave. Los Altos is on pace to outscore their opponents by 357 runs. Only six other teams have ever outscored their opponents by more than 357 runs. Four of those six teams were the Undertakers. Four of those six teams won the BDBL championship that year.

My friends, we are in the presence of greatness.

Story #4: Does Anyone Want to Win the Wilkie?

Not one of the four teams in the Wilkie Division posted a record above .500 in Chapter Two. Lake Norman and Niagara posted identical 13-15 records, and Highland and D.C. posted identical 10-18 records. As a result, the Monsters and Locks remain tied atop the division, with D.C. and Highland trailing comfortably behind.

By all rights, the Monsters should be several games in front of the rest of the division at this point. They have outscored their opponents by 74 runs this season -- the second-highest total in the Eck League. They have also gone a respectable 10-6 in one-run games. Yet, their Pytagorian difference of -6 is currently the worst in the BDBL. What gives?

As best as I can tell, it appears that Lake Norman have won an unusual number of blowouts, and have lost an above-average number of close games. They have won nine games this season by eight or more runs. They have lost 16 games by two or fewer runs. In contrast, the Niagara Locks have won zero games by eight or more runs, and have lost thirteen games by two or fewer.

If the laws of regression hold, we should see the Monsters break away from the pack at some point over the next few chapters. They lead the Eck League with 281 runs scored. They simply need to spread those runs out!

Story #5: Break Up the Pigs?

The Hrbek Division was supposed to be a two-team race between the heavily-favored Myrtle Beach Hitmen and the perennially-contending Charlotte Mustangs. In preseason league polling, the Hitmen received eleven of the thirteen votes to win the division, with Charlotte receiving the other two. In my preseason preview, I picked the Hitmen to win the division (and the EL championship), with Charlotte in second-place and the North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs trailing behind in third-place.

Given all of that, who saw a 19-9 chapter by the Pigs coming? North Carolina not only posted the best record in the Eck League in Chapter Two, but picked up three games in the division race. They now trail the first-place Mustangs by just four games and the Hitmen by three. The Pigs were outscored by 26 runs in Chapter One, but then outscored their opponents by 52 runs in the second chapter. The improvement was team-wide, impacting both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.

Like we saw with the Darien Blue Wave above, strength of schedule explains a lot about why this turnaround happened. In Chapter One, North Carolina faced four teams who are .500 or better right now, including one first-place team. In Chapter Two, the Pigs faced only one above-.500 team (Niagara), and faced two teams that are in dead-last. Strength of schedule makes a huge difference, folks!

Charlotte's lead in the Hrbek Division is now down to just one game, as the Hitmen managed to pick up one game in the race last chapter. Myrtle Beach currently leads the Eck League in runs differential at +81. They are just 5-8 in one-run games, however, which explains their -5 Pythagorian difference. One of the reasons for that, it seems, is an over-reliance on Zach Jackson in closing situations. He has blown two out of ten save opportunities and owns an 0-3 record on the season.

In contrast, the Mustangs are winning in large part due to their bullpen. They are 11-6 in one-run games thanks to a bullpen that includes two pitchers (Collin McHugh and Daniel Hudson) who own a sub-1.00 ERA in 53+ innings combined. The team's closer, Evan Phillips, leads the league with 18 saves and owns a 1.44 ERA. Their fourth-best reliever, Domingo Acevedo, has posted a 2.01 ERA in 22+ innings.

Over the next few chapters, I expect to see the Hitmen take over first place and expand their lead in the division. North Carolina's fluky performance is likely reflective of their schedule, which will get tougher over the next few chapters. Charlotte will likely hang in the race and contend for a playoffs spot thanks to their bullpen, which shows no signs of slowing down.

Story #6: Team Adjective Holds Steady

The South Philly Gritty followed their 17-11 start to this season with a respectable 15-13 showing in Chapter Two. Their pitching staff slipped a bit in the second chapter, but their offense more than picked up the slack. As it stands, the Gritty own a comfortable five-game lead over the sub-.500 Kansas Law Dogs in the division race, with neither the Blacksburg Beamers (22-34) or Virginia Sovereigns (15-41) posing any threat whatsoever.

If this is a two-team race, that race seems virtually over. Kansas GM Chris Luhning posted a white-flag Selling post just before the deadline, but hesitated to pull the trigger on any trade. It appears he will give it one more chapter before pulling that trigger. His brother, J.D., appears to be content to ride out at least one more chapter before making any big impact trade himself.

Once again, strength of schedule could be a major factor in the results over the next chapter. South Philly will face two of the toughest teams in the BDBL -- Darien and Los Altos -- in Chapter Three. Kansas will face one .500 team (South Carolina) and the Gritty themselves. That head-to-head contest could very well decide which direction both teams head into the second half of the season.