November, 2023

2023 Playoffs Preview

In my preseason preview, I promised that we would see several new faces in the postseason this year. It is a true rarity that one of my preseason predictions came true. This year, we will be treated to not one, not two, but three new participants in the Tournament of Randomness� (TOR)!

In addition to all the new faces, we will also see a very old and familiar face that we have seen more than any other team in BDBL postseason history. This November, Jeff Paulson will attempt to make history -- yet again -- by becoming the first person to win five BDBL championship trophies. Paulson has already locked up his title as the BDBL GOAT. This year, he goes for Brady-level GOAT.

For the first time in league history, we saw two one-game playoffs in October, which decided the final two teams in the TOR. Brian "Skizm" Potrafka defeated his number one nemesis, Mike Stein, in one of those games. And Chris Luhning outdueled his brother, J.D., to win the Higuera Division.

This has already been an exciting season, but it has the potential to be legendary. We could crown a first-time champion this year. We could crown the first-ever five-time winner. We could see DJ Shepard become only the third person in history to win back-to-back trophies. Or we could see Tony Chamra, Brian Potrafka, or Chris Luhning join the small handful of people who have ever won more than one trophy.

The stage is set. Let's get it on!

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	113-47	884	478	406	60-20	53-27	.797	.797	.797	2.76	.605	.599	.609
	87-73	686	645	41	47-33	40-40	.733	.763	.722	3.71	.708	.727	.691

The Los Altos Undertakers did not become so dominant by accident. GM Jeff Paulson has a vision and he has a strategy. Whereas most of us concentrate on the moment or look one or two years down the road, Paulson seems to devise a ten-year strategy -- and unlike most, he sticks with it no matter what. He has hardly ever been forced to rebuild, but when he does, it never lasts very long. In only a year or two, he's able to replace one dominant team with an entirely new dominant team. He accomplishes this by identifying future stars and hording them on his farm roster. He also does this by getting the maximum value possible for the star players he trades during those rebuilding years.

Case in point: Kyle Tucker, who led this team in runs created this year. As a farm player, he bounced around between three different teams before finally landing on the Undertakers. He was acquired in a trade with the Flagstaff Outlaws in 2018. In exchange for one player in his walk year, Chris Sale, Paulson acquired Tucker, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Dylan Cease, and Derek Fisher. Sale was spectacular in his one and only year in Flagstaff. He went 25-4, won the OL Cy Young, carried Flagstaff to a 115-45 record and into the playoffs as the number one seed...where they were unfortunately dispatched by the Joplin Miners in the OLCS.

Paulson sacrificed one Cy Young season and received three players capable of delivering a decade worth of value each. In 2021, Paulson flipped Tatis to the Chicago Black Sox (along with Sandy Alcantara) for Shane Bieber and Eloy Jimenez. Bieber led the BDBL with 24 wins this year, posted a 2.82 ERA, and will likely win the OL Cy Young award. Jimenez hit .305/.380/.486 with 57.5 runs created in roughly half a season of playing time. Paulson then convinced Chicago GM John Gill to trade Alcantara (17-15, 3.60 ERA) back to him last winter.

Paulson has also built a farm system that consistently replenishes itself with star players. Dante Bichette, Jr. (.272/.329/.444), Corey Seager (.269/.343/.485), and Steven Kwan (.299/.374/.396) are all products of that farm system. Combined, they earned just $5.3 million in salary. That freed up plenty of cap space for Paulson to sign Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.96 ERA in 152 IP) this past winter.

Of course, from the very inception of this franchise, the Undertakers have been known for their dominating, soul-crushing, bullpen. This year has been no exception. No fewer than SEVEN Los Altos relievers posted an ERA under 2.00 with 29 or more innings pitched. Chief among them was Emmanuel Clase (5-3, 1.66 ERA in 70+ IP, 45 saves), who was snatched up in the 11th round of the 2020 winter draft. While other teams were looking to fill holes in their rosters, Jeff Paulson, with the 24th pick in each round that year, had his eyes on the future.

The Undertakers are the number one seed in the BDBL postseason for a reason. They are so dominant, they won 113 games with a Pythagorean difference of minus-11! According to Pythagoras, the Undertakers should have won 124 games in 2023! And that would have only been the second-highest single-season win total in Los Altos franchise history!

The "rollercoaster" cliche is so worn out I refuse to use it, and yet I don't know of any better way to describe the 2023 season for the Ravenswood Infidels. Not a single person picked the Infidels to win their division in preseason polling, and yet Ravenswood found themselves three games in the division lead at the all-star break. The team then collapsed in Chapter Four, going 11-13 allowing the Akron Ryche to leapfrog into the lead.

At that point, Brian "Skizm" Potrafka went nuclear. He announced on the Selling forum that "everything" was up for sale. The white flag was raised. His best pitcher, Alek Manoah, was quickly sold to the highest bidder. The Infidels were officially done with the 2023 season.

But then, the Florida Mulligans imploded in Chapters Four and Five, which opened the door for both the Infidels and Cleveland Rocks to back into into the wildcard race. Skizm quickly pivoted and traded for Miles Mikolas to replace Manoah. Ravenswood and Cleveland then battled down to the wire in Chapter Six, trading places at the top of the wildcard standings. Ravenswood needed just one win in their final series against Akron to clinch the wildcard, but were swept, forcing a one-game playoff. The Infidels won that game on a walk-off in extra innings.

The Infidels rank in the middle of the pack both offensively and defensively. The only category where they excel as a team is their pitchers' ability to limit walks. They led the OL with 2.5 walks per nine. Aside from that, the 2023 Infidels were an average team.

Cedric Mullins (.282/.348/.455) led the team with 81.3 runs created. No other batter on the roster created more than 55 runs. Bryan De La Cruz (.284/.315/.550) led the team with 20 home runs. Albert Pujols, acquired just before that Selling post, hit .318/.376/.765 with 17 homers in only 132 at-bats during his short time on the Ravenswood roster.

On the pitching side, Manoah (12-5, 2.50 ERA) was having a Cy Young-caliber season before he was traded. His replacement, Mikolas (5-3, 3.52 ERA in 71+ IP) pitched well enough as his fill-in. Ross Stripling (11-4, 2.96 in 142+) is arguably this team's ace at this point. Mark Leiter (2.08 ERA in 73+ IP) and Alex Lange (2.28 in 71) did most of the heavy lifting out of the bullpen.

The Undertakers scored nearly 200 more runs than the Infidels this season and allowed nearly 170 fewer runs. Needless to say, this is a mismatch on paper. These two teams met eight times this year and Los Altos won all eight. Brian Potrafka desperately wanted to win that wildcard this year. The phrase "careful what you wish for" is as overused as the roller coaster analogy, but it still seems fitting.

Prediction: Los Altos in four.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	102-58	876	605	271	51-29	51-29	.813	.805	.815	3.49	.668	.679	.659
	84-76	705	715	-10	47-33	37-43	.722	.703	.728	4.23	.745	.682	.781

In 2012, John Duel traded away every player from his roster with any semblance of future value in exchange for immediate impact. The strategy worked. His Sylmar Padawans won the BDBL championship trophy. Before I even had a chance to mail him the trophy, Duel resigned, leaving an empty shell of a franchise for Don Woodworth and Scot Zook. Zook presided over eight seasons, seven of which ended below .500, before he handed the reins of the franchise over to Joe Demski in 2020.

For the past two years, Demski has patiently endured the rebuilding process while collecting pieces for a future championship puzzle. Several players acquired in trade during those two years factored into this year's division-winning ballclub. Willy Adames (.266/.324/.462, 30 HR, 89 RC) and Brandon Drury (.268/.327/.512, 35 HR, 91.8 RC) were both added at the trading deadline last season. Jose Quintana (11-6, 2.68 ERA in 167+ IP) was picked up in Chapter One of '22. And Alejandro Kirk (.306/.373/.466, 89.4 RC) was acquired from Akron in a monster 10-player preseason trade last year.

This past winter, Demski made his bid for EL GM of the Year by adding the key players who pushed this team over the top. Seiya Suzuki (.278/.324/.478, 70.5 RC), Starling Marte (.293/.344/.442, 66.1 RC), Joe Ryan (8-4, 3.50 ERA, 25 SV), and Merrill Kelly (12-14, 3.88 ERA in 197+ IP) were all acquired prior to Opening Day in trades.

Demski then made a huge splash in the auction, signing Manny Machado (.310/.373/.557, 127.3 RC), Ian Happ (.293/.352/.444, 98.1 RC), and Luis Garcia (3.66 ERA in 59 IP). Aaron Nola (20-6, 3.69 ERA in 210 IP) was the only major impact player on the 2023 roster that was inherited from the previous ownership.

On July 26th, the Brothers Luhning made a trade that sent younger brother J.D.'s best player, Nolan Arenado, to his older brother, Chris. In exchange, J.D. received players with future value. What made that trade unusual is that the two teams involved, the Kansas Law Dogs and South Philly Gritty, were tied for the division lead at the time. While we have seen a few teams bail on division-leading teams in the past, we have never seen it happen that late in the season.

Kansas and South Philly owned identical records at the time that trade was made. Over the next two chapters, they continued to post identical records. That forced a one-game playoff, which Kansas won with ease. Would the Gritty have won the division if they hadn't made that deal? Well, Arenado was the Law Dogs' best hitter down the stretch. He carried the team on his back, hitting .322/.402/.537 and led the 'Dogs with 38.5 RC over the final two chapters. So, yes, it is more than likely the Gritty would be playing November baseball if not for that trade. However, Gritty GM J.D. Luhning was happy to exchange a ticket to the TOR for a better shot at winning in the future.

The Law Dogs were outscored by ten runs this season. This is not the first time a playoff team was outscored during the regular season, but it is somewhat rare. The Law Dogs were the Comeback Kids of 2023 in more ways than one. They won a whopping thirteen games when trailing after seven innings, which is four more than the next-best total of come-from-behind wins than any other team in the league.

Kansas ranked among the bottom half (#8) of the Eck League in runs scored and ranked a respectable fifth place in runs allowed. Kansas starters owned a below-average rate of quality starts, but their bullpen made up for it with a low rate of blown saves. On paper, Michael Wacha (5-3, 3.39 ERA in 124+ IP) would be the de facto "ace" for the postseason, but when asked to win the most crucial game of the year, Chris Luhning handed the ball to Adrian Sampson (3.09 in only 32 IP) to win that one-game playoff. It's entirely unclear what the Kansas playoff rotation will look like.

Offensively, Arenado is far and away the best hitter in the Kansas lineup. Randy Arozarena (.263/.320/.444) finished second on the team with 84 RC -- 31 behind Arenado. Ty France (.281/.341/.402) and Salvador Perez (.287/.328/.489) are the only other Law Dogs who finished with 70+ RC.

This looks like a severe mismatch on paper. Lake Norman scored a whopping 171 more runs than Kansas this year, allowed 110 fewer runs, and won five out of eight games against Kansas this season. Arenado is a free agent after this postseason. One of the many great existential arguments over the past 25 years has taken place between those who believe winning a championship is the only goal of playing in this league, and those who play for other reasons they find equally fulfilling. The 2023 Law Dogs have provided a very interesting data point for both sides.

Prediction: Lake Norman in five.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	104-56	784	565	219	57-23	47-33	.746	.802	.727	3.35	.644	.628	.655
	103-57	906	633	273	55-25	48-32	.808	.824	.803	3.69	.689	.686	.691

It took longer than expected for the defending champs to kick it into a higher gear, but the Akron Ryche eventually got there. Akron trailed in their division at the all-star break, but then played .738 ball the rest of the way. Their second half winning percentage led the entire BDBL. Akron has now won 212 games over the past two seasons thanks to a starting rotation that ranks among the best in league history.

Akron allowed fewer runs this season than every other team in the BDBL not named the Undertakers. The Ryche made fewer errors than every other team in the BDBL. Akron pitchers allowed fewer hits per nine than every other team, including the Undertakers. They also led the BDBL with 10.0 strikeouts per nine. Incredibly enough, they accomplished all of this despite the fact that their ace, Gerritt Cole, posted a disappointing 4.24 ERA.

Nasty Nestor Cortes (15-3, 2.55 ERA in 169+ IP), Brandon Woodruff (14-5, 3.33 in 164+), Corbin Burnes (13-11, 3.35 in 217+), and Triston McKenzie (17-10, 3.73 in 207+) picked up the slack for Cole, who went 19-10 despite his mediocre ERA. Incredibly enough, one of those five pitchers will have to serve as mop-up man or long reliever in the playoffs, as only four are needed.

Someone named John Schreiber had a phenomenal year out of the Akron bullpen, compiling a 1.53 ERA in over 64 innings and picking up 16 saves along the way. Josh Hader (1.93 ERA in 51+ IP), David Robertson (2.09 in 64+, with 24 saves), and Trevor Stephens (2.58 in 52+) completed one of the league's best bullpens, all comprised of home-grown talent.

The Akron offense is also comprised of mostly home-grown talent. Austin Riley (.256/.335/.483), Jesse Winker (.251/.368/.431), Ronald Acuna (.263/.340/.373), and Vinnie Pasquantino (.315/.407/.477) are all products of the Akron farm system. This past winter, GM DJ Shepard added Tommy Edman (.248/.317/.386) in exchange for prospect Curtis Mead. As a team, the Ryche hit .261/.332/.443 and scored the sixth-most runs in the league.

2023 has been a Cinderella season for the Darien Blue Wave. When Lee Scholtz took over this franchise toward the tail end of the 2018 season, it was in shambles. Former owner Ryan Glander turned the franchise around in 2013, going from a then-record 120-loss season to a 91-win season in just one year. That turnaround cost his franchise a lot of future value, however, and the team tanked for the next five seasons. Scholtz then suffered through three straight 100-loss seasons before last year's 68-92 second-place performance.

When Scholtz made the shocking decision to sign Mike Trout to a league-record $26.5 million contract in 2021, most people believed that it was franchise suicide. No team can afford to field a decent team after blowing 42% of their entire budget on one player. Or so we thought. As it turns out, it can be done. All it takes is having a ton of minimum-wage (or near minimum-wage) players who perform at all-star levels.

Scholtz was lucky enough to have inherited Yordan F'ing Alvarez from the previous ownership. Alvarez, playing for the minimum wage of $100,000, delivered an MVP-caliber season, batting .306/.409/.640 with 42 doubles, 43 homers, 114 RBIs, and 137.2 runs created. Another minimum-wage earner, Cal Raleigh (.227/.300/.554, 34 HR) was acquired in trade last winter. Minimum-waged Andres Munoz (2.69 ERA in 60+ IP) ranked among the league leaders with 36 saves. The team's de facto ace, Tony Gonsolin (13-5, 3.53 in 142+) also made minimum wage this year.

Thanks to Alvarez, Raleigh, Trout (.278/.366/.601, 41 HR, 106.6 RC), Anthony Rizzo (.219/.313/.501, 39 HR), and Ha-Seong Kim (.254/.333/.402), the Blue Wave led the entire BDBL with 906 runs scored. Darien also led the league in home runs (278), doubles (333), and OPS against left-handers (.824).

Along with their crushing offense, the Blue Wave thrived on their suffocating bullpen. In addition to Munoz, Bryan Abreu (1.53 ERA in 58+ IP), Tanner Houck (2.14 in 63), Scott Effross (2.24 in 56+), Brooks Raley (2.57 in 56), and Felix Bautista (2.63 in 68+) all managed to pitch 55+ innings with an ERA under 3.00. On the starting side, Alex Cobb (16-5, 4.20 ERA) led the team in wins and innings pitched. He and Gonsolin will comprise half of the postseason rotation with the other two up for grabs.

Akron won five of eight against Darien during the regular season. For the most part, Akron's stellar pitching was able to keep Darien's powerful offense off the board. In eight games, Darien was held to to three or fewer runs three times. Interestingly enough, Akron did not start Cortes against Darien all season. Given Cortes' ridiculous numbers against lefties this season (.095/.167/.129), doing so would take Alvarez and Rizzo right out of the game. Just sayin'.

Prediction: Akron in seven.

Team	W-L	RS	RA	DIFF	Home	Road	OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR	ERA	Opp OPS	OPS vL	OPS vR
	95-65	818	699	119	52-28	43-37	.763	.716	.784	4.04	.711	.753	.685
	89-71	773	629	144	51-29	38-42	.767	.792	.759	3.64	.678	.699	.664

I predicted a massive regression for the Charlotte Mustangs all season long. It was a regression that never happened. In my Chapter One recap, I wrote that Luis Arreaz couldn't possibly maintain the pace he had set and would soon fall back to earth. Arraez (.351/.418/.460) won the BDBL batting title. I wrote that Charlotte's bullpen couldn't possibly dominate the rest of the season as they did in Chapter One. That bullpen then proceeded to prove me wrong again. In my preseason preview, I wrote: "This team will finish above .500, but not by much." I should probably quit the predicting business.

The Mustangs ranked fourth in the BDBL with 818 runs scored despite hitting 153 home runs (18th-ranked in the league.) In addition to Arraez, four other Mustangs created over 100 runs this year. Juan Soto (.244/.422/.470) led the team with 124.7 RC and 28 home runs. Rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez (.316/.369/.537), Alex Bregman (.271/.376/.480), and Alex Verdugo (.328/.379/.461) also created 100+ runs. With the exception of Rodriguez, all four of the others are carry-overs from the 2022 Charlotte team that won 108 games before suffering a shocking upset loss in the Division Series.

Overall, the Charlotte pitching staff finished in the middle of the pack in just about every category. Their 4.04 team ERA ranks 11th in the BDBL, but fourth in the Eck League. That red-hot bullpen carried this team the entire season. Evan Phillips (7-0, 1.04 ERA in 69 IP, 34 SV) anchored a bullpen that also included Connor Overton (1.31 ERA in 34+ IP), Domingo Acevedo (1.44 in 68+), Collin McHugh (1.62 in 72+), and the nuclear weapon known as J.P. Feyereisen (1.82 in 24+).

Of the six Charlotte pitchers with fifteen or more starts this season, four of them finished with an ERA over 5.00. The midseason trade for Alek Manoah (7-1, 2.25 ERA in 72 IP for Charlotte) was a much-needed addition. Julio Urias (2-2, 3.64 in 42) was another huge trade win for the Mustangs. Both of those deals should put Tony Chamra in the running for GM of the Year.

What a ride it has been for the Myrtle Beach Hitmen this year. In 24 previous seasons, this beleaguered and abused franchise has only seen the playoffs once -- and that happened in our league's very first year. Twenty-three consecutive years of futility set the stage for this season, in which the Hitmen were the heavy favorites in preseason polling to win not only their division, but the Eck League title.

It didn't quite work out that way. The Mustangs got off to a hot start and stayed hot the rest of the way. Myrtle Beach got off to an excellent start as well, but then tripped over themselves in Chapter Three, going just 9-15. By the time the final chapter began, the Hitmen had no chance of winning the division, but trailed by one game in a very tight race for the EL wildcard. That race was not decided until the final day of the season.

The foundation of this team was built six years ago when brother Mitch and Ryne Gill took over the franchise from the bumbling hands of Jim Doyle. Their first five years in the league were a torturous series of five-straight 100+ loss seasons, including a BDBL-record 128 losses in 2020. During those years, Mitch Gill stockpiled young talent on his farm roster, resulting in five straight years where the Myrtle Beach farm ranked among the top ten, including three straight years where it ranked number one.

Incredibly enough, only one of the prospects from those three consecutive top-ranked farm clubs contributed to the 2023 team: Tarik Skubal (9-6, 4.16 ERA in 127+ IP). Max Fried, who was inherited from the Doyle administration, was this team's best pitcher. He went 18-4 with a 2.78 ERA in 203+ innings, and will likely receive a few Cy Young votes for that contribution. Taijuan Walker (11-5, 3.07 in 167+) and A.J. Pollock (.265/.316/.556) were both acquired last winter in a trade with Father John.

The team's RC leader, Brandon Nimmo (.280/.355/.448) was picked up in a trade with the Cowtipper several years ago. Another former 'Tipper, Jose Ramirez (.260/.327/.443) was signed as a free agent in 2021. Gill then added another free agent, Jose Abreu (.294/.365/.425) this past winter.

Overall, the Hitmen rank just fifth in the Eck League in runs scored and second in runs allowed. Their 3.64 ERA is good for second place in the EL, just behind the Monsters. They allowed fewer home runs than any EL team and walked the fewest number of batters.

Charlotte dominated the Hitmen during the regular season, going 10-6 in those head-to-head matchups. Seven of those sixteen games were decided by one run. Three of Charlotte's six losses were games started by Max Fried, while Alek Manoah won both of the games he started against Myrtle Beach.

This is an interesting series pitting two division rivals against each other. One of them was a huge disappointment this season while the other was an over-achieving surprise. Reality rarely meets expectations, especially in the BDBL.

Prediction: Myrtle Beach in six.

Remaining predictions:

• Los Altos over Akron in six.
• Lake Norman over Myrtle Beach in six.
• Los Altos over Lake Norman in five.