September, 2023

Chapter Five Recap

Players of the Chapter

Way back in 2017, I managed to pick up three future all-stars in the midseason farm draft: Brandon Lowe, Wander F'ing Franco, and Yordan F'ing Alvarez. Naturally, me being me, I traded all three before they reached the big leagues. The following year, my oldest son, Ryan, resigned in the middle of the 2018 season. When Mike Ries took over the franchise, I took that opportunity to inquire about a pitcher Ryan had refused to let me have, Sonny Gray.

Gray was a solid pitcher for the ol' Cowtippers. He went 6-3 down the stretch in 2018. He helped me win my one-and-only ring in 2019 (although he didn't pitch in the postseason.) He went 20-7 with a 3.06 ERA in 2020 and should have won the OL Cy Young that year. (Biased anti-Salem voters screwed him on that.) He then closed out his Salem term with a solid 13-8 seaosn in 2021, with a 4.05 ERA in 171+ innings. He also threw the first no-hitter (a perfect game) in Salem franchise history that year.

Anyway, the point of this story is to justify in my head why I acquired Sonny Gray in exchange for the OL Chapter Five Hitter of the Chapter, Yordan F'ing Alvarez. Alvarez hit .372/.445/.862 for the chapter, leading the OL in all three triple-slash categories. He also led the league in homers, runs scored, and runs created.

When Manny Machado was signed to a whopping $15 million salary by the Lake Norman Monsters this past winter, it made front-page headlines. At the time, it seemed like Machado would be the man to push the Monsters over the top and into the playoffs. So far, so good. Machado (.392/.466/.742 last chapter) helped carry the Monsters to a league-best 20-8 chapter. They now sit a very comfortable eight games ahead of the Niagara Locks in the Wilkie Division and own the best record in the Eck League.

While the Monsters went 20-8 to top the Eck League last chapter, the Akron Ryche did the same over in the Ozzie League. A big reason for that was the improvement by several Akron pitchers, including OL Pitcher of the Chapter Brandon Woodruff. Up until this past chapter, Woodruff (7-5, 4.23 ERA) had been rather mediocre. That changed in a hurry last chapter, as he went 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a .158/.221/.233 opponent batting line.

It has been a lost season for the Virginia Sovereigns. They got off on the wrong foot and have remained there all season. With five chapters in the books, the Sovereigns sit in last-place with a 45-87 (.341) record, which is worse than every team in the league not named the Highland Freedom. There is one lone bright spot, however. Charlie Morton, pitching in the final year of his three-year contract, is the EL Pitcher of the Chapter. He posted a 1.93 ERA and ranked among the top three in every triple-slash category (.208/.276/.349). Amazingly enough, he went 1-2 on the chapter.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Akron Busts Out

If you've been wondering when the defending champs were going to snap out of their season-long slumber, you got your answer last chapter. At the all-star break, the Ryche were sitting three games behind the Ravenswood Infidels in the Benes Division. Ravenswood's 11-13 Chapter Four swoon allowed Akron to slide into sole possession of first place for the first time this season. They then went 20-8 in Chapter Five, and now sit a comfortable nine games ahead of Ravenswood. Only the Los Altos Undertakers have owned a better record since the all-star break.

As mentioned up top, Brandon Woodruff's improvement last chapter was a big reason for Akron's surge. Another major reason for that improvement was that Gerrit Cole finally pitched something like Gerrit Cole in Chapter Five. Heading into the chapter, Cole's numbers (10-8, 5.00 ERA) were absolutely ridiculous. He managed to right the ship (5-1, 3.79) last chapter.

Akron plays a fairly soft schedule in Chapter Six, with only three opponents sporting above-.500 records. Given their nine-game head start it appears that they are a lock to win this division.

Story #2: Ozzie's Wild Race

Heading into the second half of the season, the Florida Mulligans looked like the heavy favorites to win the OL wildcard race. They owned a four-game lead over the Akron Ryche at the time. The division-leading Ravenswood Infidels had also just thrown in the towel, eliminating one more competitor. That race has since been flipped entirely upside down, thanks to the breathtaking collapse of the Mulligans.

Florida went 21-7 in Chapter Two, and finished the first half of the season with the third-best record in the entire BDBL. Since then, Florida owns the worst record (.327) in the Ozzie League. The reasons for this collapse are well-documented. Just check my blog. I don't have the stomach to repeat it.

With the Mulligans safely out of the way, the OL wildcard race has become a four-team mad dash to the finish line. Ravenswood and Bear Country are now tied atop the wildcard hunt with identical 72-60 records. The Cleveland Rocks and Las Vegas Flamingos are tied two games below the leaders.

When a race is this tight with so little time left, the first thing I check is strength of schedule. Based on current records, all four teams will face a very tough schedule in Chapter Six. Bear Country (opponents' combined winning percentage of .555) has the steepest hill to climb, followed by Cleveland (.537), Ravenswood (.524), and Las Vegas (.519).

The next thing I like to check is usage. Bear Country has no hitter above 100% in overall usage, but William Contreras (115% vs. LH) and Tim Anderson (105% vs. LH) are approaching their platoon limits. On the pitching side, Bear Country looks to be in good shape as well.

Ravenswood will have to play their final chapter without their best pitcher, Ross Stripling. He has only five innings of usage remaining this season. Their second-best starting pitcher, Lance Lynn, has only 11 innings of usage left. Albert Pujols (.339/.395/.830) has been a fantastic addition to the Infidels since he was acquired in trade. Unfortunately, he's just about done for the season. So are power-hitting catcher Eric Haase and valuable infield bat Gio Urshela.

The only two pressing usage issues on the Las Vegas Flamingos roster are Taylor Ward (at 100% usage right now) on the hitting side and Yency Almonte on the pitching side. Almonte is a particularly tough blow, as he has completely dominated (1.22 ERA in 37 IP) for Vegas this year. He has only one inning of usage remaining.

Lastly, in Cleveland, ace Clayton Kershaw is down to his final 10 innings. Jose Azocar (101%), Johan Camargo (122% vs. RH), Nick Gordon (102%), and Evan Longoria (102%) are all up against the wall as well. You wouldn't think any of those guys would be a great loss, but they've all contributed, oddly enough.

Put it all together and it looks like Johnny Bo is in the best position to make a dramatic, come-from-behind, run at the title. That would give him the honor of losing to Jeff in the first round of the playoffs.

Story #3: The Brotherly Battle No One Wants to Win

The South Philly Gritty managed to take sole possession of first place last chapter despite trading their best player, Nolan Arenado, to the team they overtook in the division. Arenado hit a whopping .373/.461/.609 for his new Kansas Law Dogs team in Chapter Five, and yet the 'Dogs went just 13-15 on the chapter. They now trail the Gritty by two games in the division.

Like the OL wildcard race, we'll need to check the schedules and usage reports to see which of these two teams has a leg-up during this final stretch. In terms of strength of schedule the two teams are about even. South Philly (.464 opponent's winning percentage) has a slight advantage over Kansas (.488). Of course the biggest series on those two schedules is the head-to-head match between the two. In those match-ups, South Philly currently holds a 7-5 lead.

In terms of usage, South Philly's best remaining hitter, Carlos Correa, is down to his final 45 PA's. And their best pitcher, Shane McClanahan, has maybe four starts left in him. Kansas does not seem to have any glaring issues.

This race will go down to the wire, and will likely be decided in the final days of the season. The question is: do either of these guys actually want to win?

Story #4: Beach Party? Or Over the Falls in a Barrel?

The Niagara Locks turned on the afterburners in Chapter Five, going 16-12 to take a one-game lead in the EL wildcard race. These are nail-biting times for both the Locks and the second-place Myrtle Beach Hitmen. The next 28 games will decide which team participates in the Tournament of Randomness and which watches from the grandstand.

I have already done this twice in this article, so why not a third time? Let's take a look at strength of schedule and usage for both teams. The schedule definitely favors the Locks, because they get to play four games against the atrocious Highland Freedom. The Freedom's piss-poor winning percentage skews the overall strength of the opponents, which tips .478 to .495 in Niagara's favor. However, both teams will only face three opponents with an above-.500 record in Chapter Six. Both teams will face the same out-of-division opponents. Within their own division, Niagara (23-13) has performed much better than Myrtle Beach (17-19).

In terms of usage, three of Niagara's best hitters -- Xander Bogaerts (92%), Byron Buxton (99%), and Yandy Diaz (100%) -- are pushing their maximum limits. Myrtle Beach doesn't have any really pressing usage issues, although they'll need to give Teoscar Hernandez (97%) and Joc Pederson (97%) a day off here and there.

If I had to give an edge to either team the rest of the way, it would be Niagara, due entirely to the fact that they have four "gimme" games against the Freedom. But this race is either team's to win or lose. If Ranney wins, it will be his second playoffs appearance in a row after twelve seasons of finishing on the outside. If Myrtle Beach wins, it will be the Gill brothers' first-ever playoffs appearance in seven seasons at the helm. Either way, it will be a well-deserved reward for outstanding patience.