April, 2024

Chapter One Recap

Players of the Chapter

The Flagstaff Peaks dominated the first chapter with a league-leading 21-7 record. A big reason for that was the performance by Mookie Betts, who slashed .458/.511/.805, which led the entire BDBL in all three slashes. He also leads the league with 39 RBIs and 49.7 runs created. His RC/27 is an absolutely insane 20.3! Needless to say, he's our OL Hitter of the Chapter.

On the Eck side, a former Peak, Marcus Semien, leads the league with 28 runs created, and is hitting .350/.412/.556. Semien was acquired by the Highland Freedom this past winter in exchange for Aroldis Chapman and Brett Baty. Chapman saved four games for the Peaks in Chapter One, and posted a 2.13 ERA in 12+ innings. All things considered, that looks like a fair trade.

Clayton "Asswipe" Kershaw is a BDBL legend and surefire first-ballot BDBL Hall of Famer. He is also our Chapter One OL Pitcher of the Chapter. Placed on the trading block a week ago, and then removed, Kershaw would have left the Cleveland Rocks on a high note if he'd been traded. He went just 1-1 in Chapter One, but ranks among the top two in all three triple-slash categories: .185/.248/.328. He also ranks #2 in ERA at 1.85.

Zack Wheeler cost the Virginia Sovereigns $10.5 million in the auction this past winter. So far, he's been worth every penny. The EL Pitcher of the Chapter leads the BDBL with a 1.02 ERA, and leads the EL in all three triple-slashes: .158/.189/.266. His record stands at 4-0, and he ranks #2 in strikeouts, with 54.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: The Trade

Sometimes I wonder whether I'm really good at predicting things or if I just put ideas in people's heads and they become self-fulfilling prophecies. In my Preseason Preview, I asked whether Nick Cifrese would "dare to trade his tastiest piece of trade bait, Aaron Judge." Less than two months later, he has already done precisely that.

Trading a player as impactful as Judge has become a rarity in recent years. If we project Judge's runs created to a full season, it is greater than 150. Since 2005, only two players have ever been traded that finished the season with 150 RC: Manny Ramirez in 2009 and Christian Yelich in 2019. Prior to 2006, eleven such players were traded, and three of them were named Manny Ramirez!

The track record for such trades isn't great. In 2019, Kansas City traded Yelich to the Charlotte Mustangs for Sixto Sanchez, M.J. Melendez, and Kyle Isbel. Needless to say, none of those three has produced much to date. KC basically traded a 150-RC monster for nothing. In 2009, Nashville traded Ramirez (and Kerry Wood) to the Chicago Black Sox for Shelby Miller, Eric Arnett, Joaquin Arias, Jeff Francis, Guillermo Mota, Placido Polanco, Alex Rios, and Scott Schoeneweis. Yuck. EIGHT players were exchanged for Ramirez, and not one of them produced a single season worthy of a roster spot.

Ramirez and Judge have something in common: neither one was in his final year of his contract when he was traded. Judge has one year remaining beyond this one. In our 25-year history, only ten players have ever produced more than 130 runs created and were traded with more than a year remaining in their contract. (And four of them were named Manny Ramirez!)

Can this latest Judge trade buck the trend of teams trading impactful superstars in exchange for basically nothing? I am optimistic about this one. J.J. Wetherholt has gotten off to a bit of a slow start in his draft year, but players with his talent and background tend to do well in the big leagues. He could be the number one overall pick in this year's MLB draft (although it's looking less likely given Charlie Condon's blazing-hot start), and the track record for number one picks is very good.

Spencer Jones is having a terrific spring training and looks like a future star. Cole Young had a tremendous year last year, and has that first-round pedigree that tends to lead to future success. The Jacksonville Jackalopes got some great value for the future from this deal, and the Chicago Black Sox loaded up their lineup with one of the best hitters in the game -- for the next two years. I would call this a win-win deal.

Story #2: The Red-Hot Peaks

It isn't exactly a surprise to see the Flagstaff Peaks excel this season, but I don't think that even Greg Newgard could have foreseen just how dominant his team has been after one chapter of play. The Peaks lead the BDBL with 21 wins, and also lead the league (by a huge margin) with a +80 runs differential. They lead the league with 181 runs scored, and rank #2 in fewest runs allowed (101).

As stated up top, Mookie Betts (.458/.511/.805) hit out of his mind this chapter. Newly-added Corbin Carroll (.325/.396/.583) also smacked the crap out of the ball. Someone named Mauricio Dubon (.394/.438/.529) performed miles above his MLB numbers. Jose Ramirez (.277/.357/.527), Mark Canha (.311/.382/.489), and Donovan Solano (.330/.378/.473) also excelled. With the exception of Carroll, none of these performances seem sustainable. Newly-added Trea Turner, however, could negate some of Dubon's decline.

On the pitching side, two Flagstaff relievers (Bowden Francis and David Bednar) posted ERAs below 1.00 this chapter. Another, Hunter Harvey, posted a 1.54 ERA over 11+ innings. On the starting side, Aaron Civale (4-0, 2.43 ERA), Johan Oviedo (3-0, 2.78), Ryan Pepiot (5-0, 3.48), and Zach Eflin (3-0, 3.75) went a combined 15-0. Needless to say, that pace is also not sustainable.

Everything that could have gone right went right for the Peaks in Chapter One. Meanwhile, the heavily-favored Darien Blue Wave stumbled a bit, finishing the chapter with a 16-12 record, highlighted by two critical series losses to Florida and Lake Norman. Darien's offense performed about as well as expected, but their pitching was much worse than anticipated. Sonny Gray (5-0, 2.23 ERA) got the job done, but Andrew Abbott (1-1, 5.25) and George Kirby (2-3, 4.68) did not.

The Florida Mulligans matched Darien's 16-12 record, but suffered through a very uneven chapter filled with the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. Florida's pitchers allowed 149 runs, which is the third-highest total in the OL, and posted a 4.95 team ERA. The Mulligans lost four games in which we scored six or more runs. We then wrapped up the chapter by trading franchise player Trea Turner, which indicates where our season is heading.

Story #3: Lake Norman Off to a Monster Start

As the nearly-unanimous pick to repeat as Eck League champions this year, Lake Norman's hot start is no surprise. After one chapter of play, they lead the Eck League in wins (19) and runs differential (+36), and have allowed the fewest runs in the EL. Someone named Brandon Williamson went 4-0 with a 2.96 ERA. This winter's big free agent add, Aaron Nola, went 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA. Relievers Chris Devenski and Robert Garcia didn't allow a single earned run in 10+ innings combined. Lake Norman owns a 3.48 team ERA, which ranks first in the EL and third in the BDBL.

Offensively, Ketel Marte (.295/.392/.518) led the way with 23 runs created. Rookie Gunnar Henderson (.261/.310/.576), Ryan O'Hearn (.365/.429/.571), Seiya Suzuki (.265/.344/.393), Ian Happ (.256/.371/.427), and Ryan Mountcastle (.364/.391/.727) had a big chapter as well. Another rookie, Elly De La Cruz, hit a whopping .419/.455/.677 in only 31 at-bats. Incredibly enough, the Monsters rank third in the EL in runs scored despite the fact that Manny Machado hit just .188/.263/.365.

As hot as the Monsters were in Chapter One, they are barely clinging to first place thanks to the hot start by the Niagara Locks (18-10). The Locks own the second-best runs differential in the EL, and scored more runs than any EL team aside from the Judge-led Jackalopes.

Incredibly, Niagara managed to win 18 games despite the fact that one of their aces, Kevin Gausman, went just 2-3 with an ugly 6.10 ERA. Another one of their aces, Pablo Lopez, somehow managed to go 4-1 despite a 5.23 ERA. Once those two pitchers begin pitching the way they're capable, this team could be dangerous.

The Highland Freedom are hot on the tails of both the Monsters (2 GB) and Locks (1 GB). They wrapped up the chapter with a 17-11 record, which would be good for first place in either of the other two Eck League divisions. Highland's runs scored and allowed are nearly identical to Chicago's, and yet the Black Sox went just 14-14 on the chapter.

Story #4: Speaking of Chicago...

Chicago GM John Gill made his big move this chapter, trading a significant chunk of his farm system in exchange for Aaron Judge. Judge joins a ridiculously loaded lineup that includes Fernando Tatis, Jr. (.284/.342/.578 in Chapter One), Kyle Schwarber (.202/.342/.455), Matt Olson (.206/.311/.500), Brandon Drury (.245/.301/.564), Willson Contreras (.265/.324/.412), and Bryce Harper (.253/.388/.405).

My assumption is that Judge will take over for Schwarber against left-handers, and swap places with Charlie Blackmon against righties. Chicago currently ranks just eighth in the EL in runs scored. That should change quickly with Judge now on board.

The North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs are favored to win the Hrbek Division according to preseason league polling. They finished the first chapter with the same 14-14 record as Chicago. They scored the same exact number of runs as Chicago (139), and allowed seven more (132). Their biggest goat in Chapter One was Willy Peralta, who posted a ridiculous 7.91 ERA in Chapter One. He walked 14 batters in 19+ innings, and served up four longballs. Fellow reliever Enyel De Los Santos (6.75 ERA in 21+) was nearly as bad.

On the plus side, North Carolina had two players who exceeded 20 RC for the chapter: Matt Chapman (.316/.405/.551) and Chas McCormick (.287/.351/.604). Brandon Marsh (.286/.377/.495) and Michael Harris (.257/.303/.416) had a decent chapter as well.

Story #5: The Griffin Division's Unexpected Start

It isn't exactly a rarity to see the Los Altos Undertakers sitting atop the Griffin Division, but the rest of the division has not shaken out as expected so far. In preseason league polling, nine people picked Los Altos to win the division, eight picked Cleveland, and one (presumably Bart Chinn's mom) picked South Loop. One chapter into the season, the Rocks are tied with the Bear Country Jamboree for last-place, with records of 11-17. The South Loop Furies are somehow sitting at 16-12, two games behind the 18-10 Undertakers.

In my Preseason Preview, I wrote that Cleveland's pitching staff would carry them, and that their offense was vastly improved over last year. As it stands, Cleveland's pitching staff ranks just eighth in ERA (4.85), and their offense has scored fewer runs than every other OL team except for Bear Country.

GM Mike Stein shelled out $8 million for Luis Castillo last winter, and Castillo has rewarded him with a 1-3 record and 5.45 ERA over six starts. Spencer Strider, considered to be among the favorites to win the OL Cy Young award this year, sits at 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA. Tanner Bibee, who is supposed to be a half-season stud, is 2-1 with a 4.91 ERA.

Offensively, Cody Bellinger (.394/.453/.644) and Paul Goldschmidt (.279/.336/.519) are the only two hitters contributing to the lineup. Gleyber Torres is hitting just .215/.312/.393. Christian Yelich is getting on base (.354 OBP), but has hit just one home run, and owns a .321 slugging percentage. Cleveland ranks next-to-last in the OL with just 28 home runs.

The league leader in that category is the Undertakers, with 53. Kyle Tucker has already hit more than one-third (10) of the number of homers he hit all of last MLB season. J.D. Martinez and Patrick Wisdom have each hit seven. And get this, even Joey Votto has seven dingers. Votto hit just .202/.314/.433 with 14 homers in 208 AB last season, but is hitting .311/.388/.563 for Los Altos. LA hitting coach Larry Walker is truly a miracle worker!

Finally, there are those mysterious South Loop Furies. They rank fourth in the OL in runs scored, just two behind the Undertakers. Their team slash line of .257/.328/.435 is nearly identical to the league average. Defensively, they rank right smack in the middle with 128 runs allowed. Their 4.38 team ERA nearly matches the league average. Their Pythagorean record matches their actual record of 16-12. How is it that a league average team sits four games above .500? I chalk it up to small sample weirdness.

Story #6: Akron in Cruise Control

The Akron Ryche have won the last two Benes Division titles, and it's looking like a third in a row is on the way. They sit comfortably in first place with an 18-10 record, with the South Carolina Sea Cats (16-12) representing the only other above-.500 team in the division. Akron has outscored their opponents by more runs than every other team in the BDBL except the Flagstaff Peaks.

The Akron pitching staff and defense has allowed only 95 runs -- the only team in the BDBL in double-digits. Their 3.23 team ERA is second only to Flagstaff, while their offensive numbers are almost precisely league average across the board.

The Sea Cats' pitching staff is nearly as good as Akron's, but their offense is much worse. The 'Cats are hitting just .245/.316/.373 as a team -- all slashes below league-average. They've scored just 119 runs, which is the lowest number of runs scored by any winning team in the BDBL. Worst of all, their hitting performance isn't due to fluky slumps that will correct themselves over time. They just aren't very good.

It's difficult to see the Sea Cats gain any ground in this race. Akron's pitching is legit, and their offense is bound to improve once Austin Riley (.223/.276/.473) and Steven Kwan (.204/.250/.337) snap out of their funks.

Story #7: Does Anyone Want to Win the Higuera?

Last year, it seemed as though no one wanted to win the Higuera Division. The Brothers Luhning traded punches for a while. Then J.D. traded his best player to Chris. But that still didn't help Chris cruise to victory, and they ended up tied at the top of the division. It took a one-game playoff (won by Chris) to ultimately decide the fate of that division race.

This year, both brothers received votes (nine for J.D., four for Chris) to win this division. After one chapter of play, the South Philly Gritty (J.D.) are in the lead at 15-13. Every other team in the division, including Chris' Kansas Law Dogs, are sitting at 12-16. The Gritty (+8) and Virginia Sovereigns (+3) are the only two teams in the division that have outscored their opponents, although the Jacksonville Jackalopes (-1) came close.

The Jackalopes have now traded their best player, Aaron Judge, which effectively puts them out of the race. Virginia and South Philly have nearly identical numbers of runs scored and allowed. The big difference there is that Virginia is 3-5 in one-run games and South Philly is 6-6. If Virginia can close the gap in tight games, they may be able to gain some ground.

As for the Law Dogs, they have scored only 133 runs this season, which ranks 10th out of twelve teams in the Eck League. This, despite the fact that they have hit .258/.331/.429 as a team -- which is right around (or slightly better than) league average. I no longer have the tools to calculate hitting in the clutch, but I would bet good money that poor clutch hitting is why Kansas hasn't scored many runs so far. That can change quickly.

Pitching-wise, Kansas owns a 4.90 team ERA, which ranks ninth in the EL. Their 145 runs allowed also ranks ninth. The problem I see is that a lot of sub-average pitchers started a lot of games for Kansas in Chapter One. Kyle Gibson (4.73 ERA in MLB last year) was given six starts, and was predictably awful (1-3, 6.39 ERA) in those starts. Brady Singer (5.52 ERA in MLB) was given two starts, and went 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA. The problem is the Law Dogs don't have many other options.

The Gritty have their fair share of pitching problems as well. The difference is that their problems are caused by decent pitchers who aren't pitching decently. Mike Clevinger (3.77 MLB ERA) owns a 7.71 ERA. Phil Maton (3.00) sits at 5.93. Sam Moll (3.03) owns an ugly 8.18 ERA. Beau Brieske (3.60) sits at a whopping 9.00 over 12 innings. Nick Martinez (3.43) is at 7.47.

The problems displayed by the Gritty, Sovereigns, and Law Dogs should all correct themselves over time, which makes this an interesting race the rest of the way.