February, 2024

2024 Season Preview

Welcome to season twenty-six of the most frustrating reality game show you've ever endured. Since taking up golf three years ago, I realize that I have chosen the two most frustrating hobbies a person can possibly have. I've learned, however, that the frustration only makes the small successes more rewarding.

Not to brag, but last year on this page, I correctly predicted four out of the six division winners and the eventual BDBL champion as well. This year, I'm finding the predictions game to be a bit tougher than usual. There are only two clear division champs (three, counting one who is likely to win by default.) The fact that it's so difficult to predict the winners means it should be an exciting season.

Just to give you all a peek behind the curtain, I have never, in 25 seasons, simmed an entire season (or more) prior to Opening Day. I write these previews using my gut-level instincts about each team based on how they look on paper. In my experience, simming a full season wouldn't make a bit of difference anyway. The variability in this game makes it nearly impossible to get a remotely consistent outcome.

Both the Ozzie and Eck Leagues appear to have a clear frontrunner. Rarely do the two best teams in each league make it to the World Series, but if my predictions hold, we'll crown a champion in November who has never won the trophy before. If that isn't exciting enough for you, I am also predicting two new division winners this year. I have also noted several major impact players who may be traded during the course of this year -- players that would instantly change the playoff picture.

Best of luck to everyone except Lee!

Jump to:
McGowan | Benes | Griffin | Higuera | Wilkie | Hrbek

Darien Blue Wave

Owner: Lee Scholtz
2023 Record: 103-57 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray (.607), George Kirby (.665), Justin Steele (.666), Logan Gilbert (.679), Andrew Abbott (.741), Tony Gonsolin (.722)
Bullpen: Felix Bautista (.460), Bryan Abreu (.560), Brusdar Graterol (.558), Jhoan Duran (.622), JoJo Romero (.572), Matt Brash (.648), Andres Munoz (.622), Brooks Raley (.649)
Projected Lineup: Freddie Freeman (1B, 1,008/.962), Mike Trout (CF, .773/.890), Yordan Alvarez (LF, .892/1.044), Jake Rogers/Cal Raleigh (C, .858/.790), Ha-Seong Kim/Jake Burger (2B, .896/.800), Jake Burger/Noelvi Marte (3B, .906/.876), Teoscar Hernandez/Luke Raley (DH, .817/.834), Robbie Grossman/Riley Greene (RF, .952/.826), Tommy Edman/Thairo Estrada (SS, .731/.766)

Strengths: Only twenty pitchers in all of baseball faced 700+ batters last year and allowed an OPS below .700. The Blue Wave own four of those twenty. Only two pitchers in the game faced 200 or more batters and allowed an OPS below .500. Bautista (.460) is one of those two. In other words, the Blue Wave have a ridiculously-loaded pitching staff. Darien owns the best team ERA in the league, based on last year's MLB numbers, and the second-lowest OPS allowed.

As was true a year ago, Darien's bullpen ranks among the best in the BDBL. Abreu (610/511 splits in 72 IP) and Graterol (555/559 in 67+) would be the closer on most teams, but are merely setup men on this ballclub. Duran (523/722 in 62+) has some nifty reverse splits, and Romero owns a 276 OPS against lefties. (And no, that isn't a typo.)

As stacked as the pitching staff is, the lineup may be even more stacked. Of all hitters with 350+ PAs last year, Darien owns two of the top ten ranked by overall OPS: Alvarez (.990) and Freeman (.976). As a team, the Blue Wave hit more than 300 homers in MLB last season and created over 1,100 runs (ranking #2 and #1, respectively, in those categories.) No fewer than seven Blue Wave batters hit 20 or more home runs last year.

Weaknesses: I wish I could find one. I really do.

Outlook: The Blue Wave were one of the "feel-good" teams of 2023. After nine straight years of sub-.500 records and 24 years without a single division title, Darien finally did it. They won the division, logged over 100 wins, and were then steamrolled by the Akron Ryche in the first round of the playoffs. Hey, been there, done that.

The 2023 Blue Wave won 103 games on the strength of a suffocating bullpen and a rock-solid lineup that produced over 900 runs. I believe this 2024 team is even better. Not only will Darien repeat that offensive feat, but they will also lead the BDBL in fewest runs allowed. Only thirteen teams in BDBL history have won 110 or more games with a runs differential of 300-plus. I expect Darien to become the fourteenth.

Prediction: 1st place and the BDBL championship. It seems unfair that someone could win the BDBL championship in only his sixth year in the league. Then again, Tom DiStefano did it in year two, and Skiz did it in his very first year in the league. No one has ever claimed the Baseball Gods are fair.

Florida Mulligans

Owner: Mike Glander
2023 Record: 83-77 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Shohei Ohtani (.618), Kutter Crawford (.669), Michael Lorenzen (.700), Jon Gray (.725), MacKenzie Gore (.789), J.P. Sears (.784)
Bullpen: Matt Strahm (.638), Dauri Moreta (.606), Ian Hamilton (.606), Joe Kelly (.623), Robert Stephenson (.571), Bryan Shaw (.664)
Projected Lineup: Adley Rutschman (C, .895/.777), Shohei Ohtani (DH, .898/1.132), Wilmer Flores/Brandon Belt (1B, .886/.890), Bryan Reynolds (CF, .726/.821), Rafael Devers (3B, .823/.862), Aaron Hicks/Lane Thomas (LF, .970/.719), Nick Senzel/Wilmer Flores (2B, 1.008/.847), Lane Thomas/Jason Heyward (RF, .948/.818), Trea Turner (SS, .720/.803)

Strengths: If the Mulligans hit the way they're supposed to (and after last season, that is a big "if"), we should lead the league in runs scored. I have gone on record stating that I will quit the league if we don't score at least 900 runs. I really like being in this league, so I sure hope it doesn't come to that.

The Florida lineup includes five players who tallied 90+ runs created in MLB '23, seven who hit 20+ home runs, and ten who posted an overall OPS of .770 or better. Ohtani (1.066) finished with the highest OPS in baseball. The Mulligans own three of the top 30 hitters (400+ PA) in the game as ranked by OPS.

Ohtani should pitch like an ace in the 145 innings he is allowed to pitch this year. The bullpen lacks a shut-down closer, but is solid overall.

Weaknesses: The starting rotation is fairly abysmal. With barely enough innings of usage to get through a season, this team will need to use horrible pitchers like Gore (890/760 splits) and Sears (937/749) to their full extent. The Mulligans defense also ranks dead-last in the entire BDBL in fielding percentage, so we should expect to see a shit-ton of unearned runs in addition to all the earned ones.

Outlook: It seems blatantly obvious that the Mulligans are going to have to win a lot of 9-7 and 12-10 ballgames this year. We will simply need to stand toe-to-toe in the center of the ring and beat the living crap out of our opponents. If we end up allowing 900 runs, then scoring 900 won't mean very much in the end.

I began this winter by throwing in the towel, but after finding no takers for what I had to offer, I pivoted toward contention. The plan is to play it by ear and adjust accordingly. This offense looks so good on paper that it's hard to believe we're not looking at a playoffs-caliber team. Of course, I thought the same thing last year. Then Ohtani and Devers hit like the Aldi's versions of Ohtani and Devers. The rest is history.

If things do go south, I have some worthy trade bait to offer. If things don't go south, I will be tempted to trade some of my prized prospects for win-now pieces. Historically, we all know how that has worked out in the past.

Prediction: 2nd place. The Mulligans will miss the playoffs for the second year in a row, finishing a handful of games behind the wildcard leader. Disappointment has become the default emotion for this franchise ever since that amazing high in 2019. I suppose this is the price I must pay to the Baseball Gods for allowing me that one brief moment of joy.

Flagstaff Peaks

Owners: Greg Newgard
2023 Record: 59-101 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Zach Eflin (.642), Aaron Civale (.656), Johan Oviedo (.727), Clarke Schmidt (.776), Paul Blackburn (.787)
Bullpen: David Bednar (.597), Aroldis Chapman (.558), Bowden Francis (.545), Hunter Harvey (.583), Ryan Pepiot (.584), Steven Wilson (.651), Chris Stratton (.653)
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts (SS, 1.097/.949), Jose Ramirez (3B, .766/.863), Corbin Carroll (LF, .721/.921), Mark Canha (1B, .826/.721), Danny Jansen (C, .792/.783), Austin Hays (CF, .786/.763), Donovan Solano (2B, .746/.766), Logan O'Hoppe/Alek Thomas (DH, .931/.701), Mauricio Dubon (RF, .858/.677)

Strengths: A lot of teams throughout BDBL history have won a spot in the postseason based on nothing but the strength of their bullpen. This could be one of those teams. The Peaks bullpen includes five pitchers with a sub-600 OPS, which just feels like overkill. In this year of unnecessary bullpen excess, two other teams can also make that claim.

GM Greg "Hoss" Newgard's biggest trade of the year has already happened. Franchise player Carroll was added to the roster in a stunning nine-player deal with the Myrtle Beach Hitmen in the middle of our draft. Carroll is a classic five-tool player who is now sharing the lineup with one of the best five-tool players in the game, Mookie Betts. Those two have two more years together beyond this one. It will be interesting to see how far two players can carry a franchise.

Weaknesses: Eflin is surprisingly fantastic, and Civale is great in limited usage. Beyond those two, the rotation looks merely pedestrian on paper. With a bullpen like this, that may not matter. The lineup doesn't include any dead spots, but once you get past the top half, it looks like smooth sailing for most opposing pitchers.

Outlook: You gotta hand it to ol' Hoss. He took a team that had been gutted by Jim Doyle and turned it around in short order. The past two years have been painful for sure, but that pain period is coming to an end sooner than later. Barring injury or other tragic event, this lineup will include Carroll, Betts, and Ramirez for three years in a row. That is a pretty amazing foundation for any team.

Darien is the class of this division, so now it boils down to a race for second place. Even if I decide not to wave the white flag at any point this season, this Flagstaff team is good enough to finish ahead of me in this division.

Prediction: 3rd place. This is one of my toughest predictions, as it all depends on whether my team gets off to a hot start or not. Last year's experience tells me anything can happen in a chapter. Regardless of what happens, Hoss should be proud of the work he has done with this franchise. The Peaks have lost 100+ games two years in a row. They should have a winning record this season. That is really impressive.

West Chester Blooms

Owner: Tim Chubb
2023 Record:  (60-100, 3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Martin Perez (.776), Josaih Gray (.757), Lance Lynn (.813), Tylor Megill (.802), Ranger Suarez (.747), Julio Urias (.778)
Bullpen: Phil Bickford (.732), Tyler Alexander (.737), Seranthony Dominguez (.714), Bailey Falter (.832)
Projected Lineup: Jorge Polanco (2B, .823/.775), T.J. Friedl (CF, .962/.785), Will Smith (C, .800/.796), Giancarlo Stanton (RF, .942/.640), Carlos Santana (1B, .807/.727), Eddie Rosario (LF, .703/.762), Josh Rojas (3B, .562/.656), Brice Turang (SS, .465/.607), Tucapita Marcano (DH, .472/.667)

Strengths: Friedl came out of absolutely nowhere to have a very impressive season, flashing both power and speed. He was such an unknown commodity that he was released by the Flagstaff Peaks in 2022, picked up later that year by Darien, and then traded to West Chester in the infamous Jhoan Duran trade. If he keeps hitting like this, that trade won't look nearly as lopsided in retrospect.

Weaknesses: I had a tough time projecting that lineup above. Several players could use a platoon partner, but none exists. Most of the players listed as starters above don't have enough usage to play four chapters, never mind a full season. Friedl, Santana, Smith, and Rosario are the only four players on the roster whose split usage won't be restricted. I listed Marcano as the DH simply because no other option exists.

The starting rotation has similar usage issues. This team doesn't have enough innings to fill a full season, so GM Chubb will need to fill those holes through trade or the free agent garbage dump.

Outlook: The future is very bright in West Chester. Evan Carter, James Wood, and Kyle Teel are all future impact players who will contribute to this team within the next year or two. Unfortunately for Blooms fans, that future isn't here yet. This year will likely be even more painful than last year's 100-loss season. The fun part of the rebuilding process takes place in the GM's office. Feel sorry for the manager sitting in that Blooms dugout.

Prediction: 4th place. Cue the sad trombone.

Akron Ryche

Owner: D.J. Shepard
2023 Record: 104-56 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Gerrit Cole (.581), Corbin Burnes (.598), Merrill Kelly (.670), Wade Miley (.673), Tyler Wells (.670), Bryan Woo (.698)
Bullpen: Brandon Woodruff (.551), Brent Suter (.661), Josh Sborz (.668), Jose Alvarado (.588), Jake Bird (.732)
Projected Lineup: Steven Kwan (LF, .667/.730), Ronald Acuna (RF, .964/1.024), Austin Riley (3B, .941/.841), J.D. Davis (1B, .728/.742), Gabriel Moreno/Endy Rodriguez (C, .898/.707), Harrison Bader/Vinnie Pasquantino (DH, .936/.783), Andres Gimenez (2B, .714/.712), Chris Taylor (SS, .795/.712), Kevin Kiermaier (CF, .708/.751)

Strengths: The Ryche have won 212 games over the past two years on the strength of their starting rotation. That rotation lost three of their best pitchers from last year's squad (Brandon Woodruff to free agency, and Nestor Cortes and Triston McKenzie to injury)...and yet the rotation is still the main strength of this ballclub. Cole, the reigning AL Cy Young, and Burnes (who finished 8th in NL Cy Young voting) return to this year's rotation along with newcomer Kelly, who was signed for $8 million in the auction. Woodruff was also re-signed as a free agent, and now becomes the team's de facto closer (I assume.)

Acuna (.337/.416/.596, 41 HR, 73 SB) seems like the early favorite to win the MVP and Babe Ruth awards at the end of this season. In case you're wondering, we have had three 40/40 players in BDBL history: Ray Lankford (41/55) in 1999, Alex Rodriguez (40/41) that same year, and Mike Trout (51/44) in 2021.

Weaknesses: Aside from Acuna and Riley, the Akron offense is underwhelming. In terms of team MLB statistics, the Ryche rank in the middle of the pack by team OPS and toward the bottom-third in runs created. Other than Acuna (41 HR) and Riley (37), they don't hit a lot of home runs. On the plus side, the team has balanced splits against lefties and righties, and no glaring hole against either.

Outlook: This sure looks like a championship starting rotation, but it doesn't look like a championship team overall on paper. Akron scored 784 runs last year. They lost Bryan Reynolds, Joey Meneses, Jesse Winker, and Tommy Edman to free agency. They gained a much better season from Acuna (who created just 63.2 runs in 2023) and picked up Kwan and Davis. The losses seem to outweigh the gains, both offensively and defensively.

The good news is that no other team in this division looks like a threat. The Ryche had to battle with the Ravenswood Infidels and Las Vegas Flamingos the entire first half of last season. I don't think they will have such difficulties this year.

Prediction: 1st place. 90 wins feels like the uppermost cap for the Ryche this year. In this division that could be enough.

Las Vegas Flamingos

Owner: John Bochicchio
2023 Record: 82-78 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Braxton Garrett (.714), Yu Darvish (.742), Griffin Canning (.733), Grayson Rodriguez (.739), Tyler Anderson (.801), Zack Littell (.722)
Bullpen: Hoby Milner (.573), Danny Coulombe (.605), Camilo Doval (.590), Adam Ottavino (.660), Cionel Perez (.696), Buck Farmer (.699), Keynan Middleton (.667)
Projected Lineup: Josh Naylor (RF, .821/.852), Taylor Ward (LF, .896/.702), Pete Alonso (1B, .859/.807), Nolan Gorman (3B, .840/.798), Randal Grichuk/Adam Duvall (CF, .995/.863), Yan Gomes/Bo Naylor (C, .824/.852), D.J. LeMahieu (2B, .761/.707), Anthony Volpe (SS, .817/.624), Dylan Moore/Hunter Renfroe (DH, .797/.722)

Strengths: The Vegas bullpen is very good and very deep. It's so deep that I doubt they will carry all of those names above on the active roster. By carrying an extra arm or two, Johnny Bo can turn any game into a bullpen game.

The key to the bullpen game is getting an early lead. I don't see that being a problem with this lineup. There are no glaring holes worth mentioning. The Flamingos have eight batters with a .797 OPS or better against lefties and six with a .798+ OPS against righties. This balanced approach makes it tough for opponents to take advantage of platoon weaknesses.

Weaknesses: No one has ever confused Braxton Garrett with the ace of any pitching staff, but he's the best option of the lot. The BDBL average OPS allowed is .708. Every starting pitcher on the Flamingos staff is on the wrong side of that number.

Outlook: The Flamingos finished with 83 and 82 wins over the past two seasons, respectively. They currently rank right near the middle of the BDBL in both OPS and OPS allowed. On paper, they appear to be the epitome of a .500 ballclub. Johnny Bo has never been the type of GM to wave the white flag midseason. He has also never been the "sell the future to win now" type of GM, either. I expect that he will let this team ride just as he has with nearly every team in the past.

Traditionally, the Flamingos have been one of those teams that always seems to surprise me by performing better than I expected. This could very well be another one of those teams. I often tend to downgrade teams with below-average pitching in my mistaken belief that preventing runs is half the game.

Prediction: 2nd place. Johnny Bo could give D.J. a run for his money coming out of the gate, but I think the Ryche will win this division by a comfortable margin.

South Carolina Sea Cats

Owner: Tony DeCastro
2023 Record: 73-87 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander (.652), Zac Gallen (.666), Javier Assad (.694), Joe Musgrove (.676)
Bullpen: Hector Neris (.569), Andrew Wantz (.627), Jacob Webb (.668), Aaron Bummer (.699), Kendall Graveman (.698), Reynaldo Lopez (.643)
Projected Lineup: Nico Hoerner (2B, .756/.719), Nathan Lowe (1B, .642/.833), Joey Wiemer/Mike Yastrzemski (DH, .815/.831), Gary Sanchez/Kyle Higashioka (C, .984/.654), Michael Taylor/James Outman (CF, .914/.836), Alex Call/Jake Fraley (LF, .745/.815), Mike Tauchman (RF, .741/.739), Willi Castro (SS, .636/.803), Brian Anderson (3B, .597/.703)

Strengths: Verlander and Gallen both earned Cy Young votes for the Sea Cats last year, and will likely do so again in 2024. The addition of Neris in the draft gives the 'Cats a legitimate closer to go with those two aces.

Weaknesses: South Carolina currently doesn't have enough innings to get through this year. Tony DeCastro will need to continue shuttling second-hand arms from the free agent scrap heap just to get through the season. Doing so tends to drag down a team's ERA.

I had a rough time filling out that lineup above. Anderson, Castro, and the catching duo could all use platoon partners. Lowe could also use one, but he's the only player on the roster rated at first base. There is no real threat anywhere in this lineup. Outman (.790) owns the highest OPS on the team. Sanchez (.984 vs. LH) and Taylor (.914 vs. LH) are the only two batters with a platoon split above .850.

Outlook: Nothing ever seems to change with this franchise. Warm bodies come and go. The games are played on time. And at the end of the season the Sea Cats finish with somewhere between 72 and 78 wins. In fact, in each of the past five seasons, they have won 72-78 games. They are the most consistent franchise in the BDBL.

Akron appears to be the only team in this division that is a lock to win more than 80 games this year. The best reason to be optimistic about South Carolina's odds of finishing with a winning record is that they get to play their division mates sixteen times this year.

DeCastro has never been the type of GM who is fond of pulling off mega-blockbuster trades, but if he were so inclined to do so, Gallen would be fantastic trade bait. He's one of the only aces in the game with more than 200 innings of usage and he still has a full year under contract (at a very reasonable $3.1M) after this year.

Prediction: 3rd place, with between 72-78 wins. Yawn.

Ravenswood Infidels

Owner: Brian Potrafka
2023 Record: 87-73 (2nd place, and the OL wildcard)
Projected Rotation: Miles Mikolas (.772), Charlie Morton (.772), Bryan Bello (.777), Reese Olson (.650), Tanner Houck (.742), Ross Stripling (.817)
Bullpen: Gabe Speier (.657), Taylor Rogers (.668), Alex Lange (.642), Mark Leiter (.663), Emmet Sheehan (.710), Michael Tonkin (.655)
Projected Lineup: Isaac Paredes (SS, .773/.860), Tony Kemp/Zack Gelof (2B, .933/.969), Triston Casas (1B, .817/.865), Garrett Hampson (3B, .707/.740), Cedric Mullins (CF, .708/.725), Stone Garrett/Seth Brown (LF, .839/.738), Bryan De La Cruz (RF, .708/.717), Chad Wallach/M.J. Melendez (C, .802/.751), Zach Neto (DH, .786/.659)

Strengths: That second base platoon of Kemp and Gelof looks pretty scary. The bullpen isn't bad, all things considered, and offers plenty of depth.

Weaknesses: The Infidels rank toward the bottom of the BDBL in most categories, both offensively and defensively. This lineup is full of holes and the pitching staff lacks a standout pitcher who is a lock to finish this season with an ERA under 4.00.

The bottom of the lineup is a bit of a mess. You could plug in other players on the roster into those spots, or mix up the order, and it wouldn't make a difference. This looks like a lineup that will score in the low-600s.

Outlook: Brian Potraka threw in the towel on the 2024 season before the 2023 season had ended. He has made it crystal clear that 2024 will be a rebuilding year. He intends to take his time and build the type of team that will not only succeed once, but repeatedly and for years at a time. It's a worthy goal. For most of us, that has been our goal all along. It's easier said than done, unfortunately. As Jeff Paulson himself would tell you, it's hard being Jeff. But it's even harder trying to be like Jeff.

It shouldn't take long for the Infidels to get back on track. Walker Buehler is supposed to be back on the mound for Opening Day. Brayan Bello and Emmet Sheehan look like they could make an impact soon. This team will shed $13 million in bad salaries when Anthony Rendon and Kemp leave via free agency next winter. There are plenty of reasons for optimism in Ravenswood.

Prediction: 4th place, for now.

Los Altos Undertakers

Owner: Jeff Paulson
2023 Record: 113-47 (1st place, BDBL champions. Again.)
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer (.689), Shane Bieber (.709), Seth Lugo (.708), Kenta Maeda (.721), Bailey Ober (.682)
Bullpen: Emmanuel Clase (.610), Jason Adam (.630), Ryan Helsley (.538), Dustin May (.501), Matt Moore (.694), Jovani Moran (.683), Jordan Romano (.651), Lucas Sims (.622)
Projected Lineup: Mitch Garver (C, .938/.845), Corey Seager (3B, .881/1.075), Kyle Tucker (RF, .934/.859), J.D. Martinez (DH, .924/.880), Bo Bichette (SS, .893/.797), Joey Votto/Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B, .897/.844), Andrew Monasterio/Edouard Julien (2B, .780/.898), Rob Refsnyder/Patrick Wisdom (CF, .828/.805), Eloy Jimenez (LF, .739/.762)

Strengths: As always, the Undertakers have more quality bullpen arms than they can possibly use. I've never really understood the strategy of keeping quality arms on the reserve roster, but I suppose it's to keep them off of your opponents' active rosters. Good strategy if you have endless resources to do so.

Every starter in the rotation is limited in usage, but will be highly-effective when used. This starting lineup has no glaring holes, and is very well-balanced. The Undertakers lineup ranks fourth in the BDBL in MLB OPS against lefties and first in OPS against righties. Seager (.327/.390/.623, 42 2B, 33 HR) will likely earn a lot of MVP votes at the end of this season.

Weaknesses: Since both Seager and Bichette are rated only at shortstop, one of them has to play out of position. This has never been a problem for Los Altos in the past, so I doubt it will be an issue this year. The bigger issue, defensively, is in center field. I have Refsnyder and Wisdom sharing a platoon in center above, but both are rated Pr at that position. The only other option is to move one of the corner outfielders out of position and play those two where they are rated higher.

Outlook: I actually fell for Jeff's "golly, gee, shucks" routine this winter. I generally don't look at any other team's roster until I write this preview, so when Jeff claimed he wasn't going to compete this year, and that we would all "enjoy beating him up," I actually fell for it. No one is going to "beat up" this team. This is as solid a team as there is. Most of us mere mortals would be very happy to field such a team, but for the GOAT, it evidently falls below his impossibly-high standards.

This isn't the dominate-the-planet team we saw a year ago, but it's easily the best team in this division. Los Altos owns a 59-win lead over the Mulligans franchise on the all-time wins ranking. I expect that lead to grow in 2024.

Prediction: 1st place. The Undertakers will definitely win at least 90 games this year. That should be enough to win this division. It would not surprise me at all if Los Altos wins 100+. We all know what happens when the Undertakers play in the postseason. I just can't envision that they will slip past the Blue Wave.

Cleveland Rocks

Owner: Mike Stein
2023 Record: 87-73 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Spencer Strider (.634), Luis Castillo (.670), Tanner Bibee (.647), Clayton Kershaw (.641), Dean Kremer (.730), Cristopher Sanchez (.692)
Bullpen: Will Smith (.614), Erik Swanson (.638), Tyler Rogers (.657), Xzavion Curry (.759), Trevor Stephan (.712)
Projected Lineup: Christian Yelich (LF, .633/.882), Cody Bellinger (CF, .984/.830), Paul Goldschmidt (1B, .826/.804), Gleyber Torres (2B, .921/.772), Jarren Duran (RF, .749/.841), Connor Joe (DH, .820/.720), Connor Wong (C, .501/.734), Jose Caballero (3B, .758/.588), Willy Adames (SS, .763/.701)

Strengths: The Rocks came within one game of the postseason last year by riding on the backs of one of the league's strongest starting rotations and the lone bat of MVP/Babe Ruth winner Paul Goldschmidt. Mike Stein is now looking to replicate that winning formula in 2024. Gone from the rotation are Carlos Rodon and Martin Perez. Taking their places this year are Castillo and Bibee. Castillo came at the steep cost of $8 million in this winter's auction. Bibee came out of freakin' nowhere. He was Stein's fourth farm pick in the midseason, 2022, farm draft. Two short years later, he's an ace.

This year's rotation is arguably better than last year's. There is no argument, however, that this year's offense is better by leaps and bounds. Goldy finally has some surrounding support in the lineup thanks to the comeback years of Bellinger, Torres, and Yelich. Yelich could use a platoon partner, but that should be easy enough to find.

Weaknesses: The lineup against left-handers is among the weakest in the league. Bellinger (.984 OPS), Torres (.921), Goldy (.826), and Joe (.820) are the only real threats against southpaws.

Outlook: The Rocks will be a contender thanks to their pitching staff alone. With their improved offense, I expect them to compete for this division title. At minimum, I expect the Rocks to win the wildcard. Although it seems like Cleveland is a contender every year, if they do make it to the postseason it will only be the fourth time it has happened in franchise history.

The Rocks ranked 19th out of 24 teams in runs scored (636) last year, and yet still managed to win 87 games thanks to their phenomenal pitching staff. If they can hold opponents to the same number of runs allowed (604) in 2024, but score 700 runs, you're looking at 92 Pythagorean wins. That should be enough to capture a playoffs spot.

Prediction: 2nd place and the OL wildcard. The thrill of winning a spot in the playoffs will fade quickly once this team faces Darien or Los Altos in the first round. Pitching often carries a team through the postseason, but not when those two teams are involved.

Bear Country Jamboree

Owner: Matt Clemm
2023 Record: 80-80 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Logan Webb (.653), Freddy Peralta (.669), Dylan Cease (.737), Logan Allen (.750), Matt Manning (.648)
Bullpen: Shelby Miller (.488), Tom Cosgrove (.515), Drew Rasmussen (.567), Craig Kimbrel (.611), Alexis Diaz (.597), Austin Cox (.654), Gregory Santos (.633), Julian Merryweather (.646), John Brebbia (.682), Ryan Brasier (.551)
Projected Lineup: LaMonte Wade (CF, .709/.805), Ozzie Albies (2B, 1.023/.803), Justin Turner (3B, .900/.765), William Contreras (C, 1.087/.720), Josh Bell/Jonathan Aranda (1B, .854/.735), Nick Castellanos (RF, .930/.733), Cade Marlow/Michael Conforto (LF, .908/.753), Tim Anderson (DH, .715/.538), Ezequiel Tovar (SS, .708/.690)

Strengths: Here is yet another team that is carrying more quality relievers than they can possibly carry on their active roster. If you're a little light on bullpen usage this year, you can blame these hoarders for that. The Jamboree have five relievers with an opponents OPS below .600, which is a little ridiculous. Someone named Tom Cosgrove had a hell of a year. I'm pretty sure he was my plumber before that.

The starting rotation is solid, although a little light on usage. A team generally needs 960 innings from their starters to get through a full season. I have the Jamboree sitting at 838. They need about 120 more. Unless Matt Clemm trades for it, the options in the free agent garbage dump aren't very good.

Weaknesses: The lineup against right-handers is very weak. Only Albies (.803) owns an OPS above .800 against righties. I didn't know where to stick Anderson, as both he and Tovar need a platoon partner against righties. The signing of Castellanos (just .252/.289/.444 against RH) to a Type-H deal seems to create more problems than it solves.

Outlook: I understand the bullpen-heavy strategy. It has worked for many teams over the years. I just don't see this team's bullpen being so dominant that it makes up for the weakness of this offense. I have written that same sentence in the past about other teams and it always seems to come back to haunt me. You would think I would learn from my mistakes, but then you would assume too much.

Matt Clemm tied up a lot of money on some very risky players this winter: $22.5 million combined on Albies, Castellanos, and Peralta. After this season, the Jamboree will shed the expensive contracts of the last two risky Type-H players he signed: Anderson ($9M) and Kimbrel ($6.5M). At some point, these risks are bound to pay dividends. I just don't see it happening in 2024.

Prediction: 3rd place. The Jamboree are one of those teams stuck in the dreaded Mediocrity Zone. They aren't good enough to compete, and they aren't bad enough to throw it all out the window and rebuild. Welcome to the club.

South Loop Furies

Owner: Bart Chinn
2023 Record: 60-100 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Dane Dunning (.708), Bryce Elder (.706), Alex Cobb (.754), Steven Matz (.725), Tristan Beck (.688)
Bullpen: Ryan Borucki (.544), Kevin Kelly (.589), Austin Pruitt (.661), Steven Okert (.737), Ryne Stanek (.690), Caleb Thielbar (.695)
Projected Lineup: Francisco Lindor (SS, .916/.758), Jose Abreu/Mike Moustakas (1B, .741/.721), Josh Lowe (RF, .712/.854), Jorge Soler (DH, 1.080/.788), Tom Murphy/Shea Langeliers (C, .869/.723), Pablo Reyes/Jared Triolo (2B, .772/.786), Eugenio Suarez (3B, .742/.706), Ryan Noda (LF, .753/.774), Drew Waters (CF, .591/.707)

Strengths: The front end of the bullpen is strong, with both Borucki and Kelly providing even splits from the left and right side, respectively. The top half of the lineup is also strong, capped by expensive free agents Lindor ($12M) and Soler ($5.5M).

Weaknesses: South Loop ranks among the bottom-third of the BDBL in MLB team OPS. They are especially weak against right-handers. Murphy (.876 OPS) and Lowe (.854) are the only two real threats in the lineup against righties.

The pitching staff, as a whole, ranks among the bottom half of the league in OPS allowed. The rotation lacks a true ace, and the bullpen is uninspiring.

Outlook: Normally, when you see a team spend this much money on free agents, that team is in "go for it" mode. The South Loop Furies are clearly not in that mode, so I don't really understand this spending spree. In particular, locking up Soler for three years seems insane, especially when the Furies play in a home park with a RH HR factor of just 98. Soler's entire value is hitting homers.

Unfortunately, the Furies don't have much in the way of trade bait, so if they do fall out of contention early, they won't have much to work with. Their best two hitters, Lindor and Soler, can't be traded due to their Type-H status. That leaves Borucki and Kelly as the best bait of the bunch.

Prediction: 4th place. This feels like another lost season for this franchise. They have now had six losing seasons in the seven-year BDBL career of Bart Chinn. Unless I'm way off the mark, this will likely be the seventh losing season in eight years.

South Philly Gritty

Owner: J.D. Luhning
2023 Record: 84-76 (1st place, tied)
Projected Rotation: Eduardo Rodriguez (.648), Chris Bassitt (.703), Shane McClanahan (.678), Nick Martinez (.664), Mike Clevinger (.717), Andrew Heaney (.772)
Bullpen: Tanner Scott (.527), Yennier Cano (.600), Raisel Iglesias (.664), Phil Maton (.637), Sam Moll (.604)
Projected Lineup: Matt McLain (2B, .995/.820), Christian Walker (1B, .922/.800), Adolis Garcia (CF, .866/.826), Marcell Ozuna (LF, .980/.881), Lourdes Gurriel (RF, .815/.756), Anthony Rizzo/C.J. Cron (DH, .825/.723), Carlos Correa (SS, .781/.690), Yainer Diaz (C, .620/.931), Andy Ibanez (3B, .819/.710)

Strengths: In terms of MLB stats, the Gritty rank somewhere in the middle in every relevant metric. Their strength is that they have no glaring weaknesses anywhere in the rotation, bullpen, or lineup. They even feature a deep bench.

With Ozuna (40 HR), Garcia (39), Walker (33), and two others with 20+ homers, this team is built around power. Only three other teams hit more homers in MLB last season. McClain and Walker look like locks for the all-star team.

Weaknesses: As stated up top, there is no glaring weakness on this team. Correa, Ibanez, and Diaz could use platoon partners, but that is easily-fixable.

Outlook: J.D. Luhning famously (infamously?) handed his brother his spot in the playoffs last year, presumably to have a better chance of winning this year. If that doesn't happen, then that sacrifice was for naught. This team is decent. They are probably capable of 90 wins, which should be enough to make the playoffs. The question is: will Luhning let his team win that spot in the playoffs this year?

The good news for Gritty fans is that there isn't much competition in this division. The Law Dogs are a borderline team. The Sovereigns are vastly improved over last year, but still a good distance away from competing. The Jackalopes are a team is disarray. The division crown is wide-open to anyone who actually wants to win it.

Prediction: 1st place. With a quality bullpen and several power bats in the lineup, the Gritty are arguably better equipped to compete in the postseason than the regular season. That said, they (and every other team in the league) will have a tough time getting past the Monsters.

Kansas Law Dogs

Owner: Chris Luhning
2023 Record: 84-76 (1st place, tied, division winner)
Projected Rotation: Taijuan Walker (.717), Michael Wacha (.668), Kyle Gibson (.759), Brady Singer (.808), Taj Bradley (.813), Alex Wood (.768)
Bullpen: Josh Hader (.508), Chris Martin (.566), Clay Holmes (.584), David Robertson (.656), Mike Baumann (.690), Joe Jimenez (.704), Kirby Yates (.619)
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve (2B, .846/.941), Sean Murphy (C, .884/.832), Randy Arozarena (.828/.778), Jake Meyers/Kerry Carpenter (LF, .785/.841), Jeimer Candelario (3B, .792/.813), Dansby Swanson (SS, .771/.734), Garrett Cooper (1B, .904/.666), Ty France (DH, .718/.698), Dairon Blanco/Jazz Chisholm (CF, .820/.853)

Strengths: The top half of this lineup is fantastic. Altuve and Murphy should make the all-star team. There is plenty of speed on this team, with five players sporting double digits in stolen bases. Hader and Martin are a pair of legitimate closers, one from the left side and one from the right. The addition of Holmes during the draft gives this bullpen three legit closers.

Weaknesses: Squeezing a full season of usage out of these starters will be challenging. Cooper could use a platoon partner at first base. France is hardly a great option at DH, but I couldn't find a better one.

Outlook: The Law Dogs are straddling the line between contender and non-contender status. On paper, they look like a .500 ballclub. Usually, when Chris Luhning straddles that line, it means he will be waving that white flag at some point. If/when that happens, free-agents-to-be Martin and Holmes will become his number one and two pieces of trade bait.

With only the Gritty posing any threat of competition in this division, it seems likely that the Law Dogs will be within striking distance of first place, just as they were throughout all of last year. If Chris can convince his brother to trade him his best player again, that may be enough to push this team over the top. Or, maybe this year he'll return the favor.

Prediction: 2nd place. Barring a major trade one way or the other, this looks like a second-place team that probably finishes half a dozen games out of the wildcard race.

Virginia Sovereigns

Owners: Tony Badger
2023 Record: 54-106 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Zack Wheeler (.638), Sandy Alcantara (.693), Michael King (.638), Marcus Stroman (.640), Luis Medina (.792)
Bullpen: Bryse Wilson (.648), Ron Marinaccio (.697), George Soriano (.697), Trevor Megill (.711), Chris Murphy (.740)
Projected Lineup: J.P. Crawford (SS, .755/.846), Curtis Mead/Jonathan India (2B, .805/.781), Brent Rooker (DH, .874/.789), George Springer (RF, .710/.738), Taylor Walls/Geraldo Perdomo (3B, .777/.736), Nick Fortes/Christian Bethancourt (C, .854/.631), Trent Grisham (CF, .791/.623), Dominic Smith (1B, .588/.737), Zach McKinstry (LF, .653/.653)

Strengths: The starting rotation is very strong, highlighted by new free agent signings Wheeler and Alcantara. Tony Badger spent $19 million on the two of them, so they had better step it up. Badger spent another $8.5 million on Crawford, betting that his come-from-nowhere season last year is the new career standard.

Speaking of coming from nowhere, where on earth did Brent Rooker come from? The dude has been lingering around seemingly forever, spending more time on Triple-A buses than Crash Davis, and all of a sudden, at age 28, he decided to become a 30-homer monster. Baseball is a funny game.

Weaknesses: This lineup has a lot of holes where a platoon partner is needed, but no viable options exist. Neither one of the catchers can hit right-handers. Neither can Grisham. McKinstry can't hit anyone, but I had to wedge him in there for lack of better options. As a whole, the Sovereigns own the second-worst team OPS against right-handers in the league. Other than Crawford (.846 OPS) and pinch hitter Nelson Velazquez (.966), there are no threats in the lineup when a right-hander is on the mound.

Outlook: It's tough to win without scoring lots of runs. The Sovereigns will have trouble scoring lots of runs this year. With their starting pitching-heavy roster, this team reminds me of last year's South Carolina Sea Cats. That team had a much better starting rotation -- one of the best in league history -- and finished with 73 wins. I expect the Sovereigns to finish this season somewhere in that neighborhood.

Prediction: 3rd place. This franchise is moving in the right direction, at least.

Jacksonville Jackalopes

Owner: Nick Cifrese
2023 Record: 72-88 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Colin Rea (.729), Hunter Brown (.788), Drew Smyly (.814), Jake Irvin (.770), Patrick Corbin (.826), Ryan Yarbrough (.734)
Bullpen: Kevin Ginkel (.547), Jose Leclerc (.580), Paul Sewald (.640), Tommy Kahnle (.611), Adbert Alzolay (.611)
Projected Lineup: Max Muncy (3B, .642/.881), Aaron Judge (1.056/1.011), Harold Ramirez (LF, .966/.749), Spencer Torkelson (1B, .829/.737), Christian Vazquez/Elias Diaz (C, .776/.778), Edward Olivares (DH, .857/.728), Orlando Arcia (SS, 1.006/.674), Adam Frazier (2B, .615/.709), Myles Straw (CF, .590/.600)

Strengths: Aaron Judge is one of only four players who posted a 1.000+ OPS in MLB last season, and the only one of the four who did so against both lefties and righties. The Jacksonville bullpen is loaded with quality arms.

Weaknesses: Unfortunately, opposing managers have very little reason to pitch to Judge, because there isn't much surrounding him in the lineup. Muncy (.881 OPS vs. RH) and Ramirez (.966 vs. LH) are the only two real threats in the lineup aside from the big guy.

The Jackalopes rank among the bottom-third in the BDBL in OPS and OPS allowed. The starting rotation is such a mess that Corbin might actually have to pitch.

Outlook: I think the entire league was waiting with nervous anticipation to see how the new guy would spend his $50 million this winter. In the end, Cifrese threw a ton of money at Arcia ($5.5M), Muncy ($6.5M), and Ramirez ($5.5M). All three are very risky Type-H deals. None of the three will help the Jackalopes compete in 2024, so all three must prove to be worthy of their salaries in 2025 and 2026.

With this below-average lineup and pitching staff, it seems obvious that this will be a rebuilding year in Jacksonville. If that's the case, would Cifrese dare to deal his tastiest piece of trade bait, Aaron Judge? Judge has only one year remaining on his contract and would fetch an enormous return. Nick, if you are reading this, two bits of advice: 1) don't trade Judge without announcing his availability to everyone, and 2) don't trade with Lee. That last bit of advice is so plainly-obvious it shouldn't need to be said, but there it is.

Aside from Judge, the bullpen arms this team owns are all highly-coveted in trades as well. This franchise could use an infusion of youth. Thankfully, this team has enough valuable assets to make that happen.

Prediction: 4th place. This franchise is a mess, but it isn't a lost cause. The Sovereigns, Freedom, and Peaks all lost 100+ games a year ago, but all three now look like winning teams. Quick turnarounds have happened plenty of times before and it can happen again with this franchise.

Lake Norman Monsters

Owner: Joe Demski
2023 Record: 102-58 (1st place, and the EL champion)
Projected Rotation: Kyle Bradish (.605), Aaron Nola (.708), Joe Ryan (.742), Brandon Williamson (.743), Yusei Kikuchi (.737), Jose Quintana (.678), Hunter Greene (.814)
Bullpen: Jacob deGrom (.524), Joel Payamps (.620), Griffin Jax (.641), Fernando Cruz (.661), Bryan Baker (.651), A.J. Puk (.706), George Soriano (.697)
Projected Lineup: Brandon Nimmo (CF, .748/.874), Ketel Marte (2B, .879/.828), Manny Machado (3B, .887/.747), Anthony Santander (RF, .790/.798), Seiya Suzuki (DH, .852/.838), Ryan Mountcastle/Ryan O'Hearn (1B, 1.052/.802), Jorge Mateo/Gunnar Henderson (SS, .746/.885), Luis Rengifo/Ian Happ/ (LF, .928/.830), Patrick Bailey/Alejandro Kirk (C, .829/.674)

Strengths: Man, this lineup is stacked! Against lefties, the Monsters have eight players with a 790+ OPS. Against righties, they have NINE. You could randomly jumble up that lineup above and place them in any order and it would score 850 runs. Nimmo, Marte, Happ, Santander, and Suzuki all created at least 90 runs in MLB last year. Henderson (89.9) just missed the cut.

This pitching staff is no joke, either. Bradish is a legitimate ace. Demski then spent $7 million to add Nola to the mix. The bullpen is led by another free agent signing, deGrom. He's limited to 33 innings in usage, but look what the Flamingos did with Yhency Almonte's usage a year ago and you can see how those 33 innings can be leveraged for maximum impact.

Weaknesses: Neither of this team's two catchers can hit right-handers. Granted, it's only one hole in the lineup, but it's still a hole.

One problem I had filling out that lineup was finding a position for Elly De La Cruz. He's one of the most exciting players in baseball, but he has no position on this team. Machado has to be at third base, which leaves only shortstop for De La Cruz. The problem is that Henderson plays there, and he has the same platoon issues as De La Cruz. I suppose this "weakness" is a good problem to have. It will also solve itself once Machado's contract expires after 2025.

Outlook: The Monsters went from 100+ losses to 100+ wins last year and that pendulum isn't about to swing back in the opposite direction any time soon. This is an excellent ballclub from top to bottom. It is not only built to win this year, but for years to come. Henderson and De La Cruz are still in their option years. Jackson Holliday, the #1 prospect in baseball, hasn't even arrived yet. Neither has top-ten prospect Samuel Basallo. This team could dominate for the next decade!

Prediction: 1st place and repeat EL champions. A World Series match-up between Joe Demski and Lee Scholtz is something BDBL fans would love to see. I believe that would be a tightly-fought series, but would have to give the edge to Darien.

Niagara Locks

Owner: Mike Ranney
2023 Record: 83-77 (2nd place)
Projected Rotation: Pablo Lopez (.676), Blake Snell (.579), Kevin Gausman (.670), Tyler Glasnow (.617), Jameson Taillon (.750)
Bullpen: Shawn Armstrong (.519), Scott Barlow (.674), Nick Ramirez (.654), Justin Lawrence (.688), Scott Alexander (.693), Yimi Garcia (.720), Trevor Gott (.712)
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen (LF, .793/.767), Wander F'ing Franco (SS, .930/.793), Bobby Witt, Jr. (DH, .862/.800), Max Kepler (RF, .751/.832), Jonah Heim (C, .856/.733), Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (1B, .766/.792), Christian Pache/Mickey Moniak (CF, .924/.866), Ezequiel Duran (3B, .837/.738), Ryan McMahon (2B, .573/.826)

Strengths: This offense is so loaded, I couldn't find room for Victor Robles (.872 OPS vs. LH), Jordan Walker (.823 vs. RH), Jesus Sanchez (.808 vs. RH), Kyle Isbel (.799 vs. LH), and Joey Gallo (.749 vs. RH). The Niagara bench would make a decent starting lineup!

I'm used to seeing a powerhouse stacked lineup in Niagara. What I'm not used to seeing is a pitching staff filled with so many aces. Lopez, Snell, and Gausman are legitimate number one starters. Glasnow is a short-usage (120 IP) ace. Since when does Mike Ranney care about pitching?

Weaknesses: The bullpen is solid, but most of them have some heavy platoon issues. Alexander, Barlow, Gott, and Ramirez all have platoon differences over 100.

Outlook: Niagara's window of opportunity closes after 2025 when the contracts of Gausman, Snell, and Lopez all expire at the same time. Needless to say, replacing those three arms won't be easy. Or cheap. The Locks have two years to be in "win now" mode, and I believe they will take full advantage of it.

Unfortunately for Locks fans, their favorite team happens to play in the same division as the defending EL champs, who look even stronger this year than they did a year ago. The Monsters are not only a strong team presently, but their future looks insane. As if that weren't enough, the Freedom are quickly building a juggernaut of their own. The Wilkie Division has quickly become the toughest division in the BDBL.

Prediction: 2nd place, and the EL wildcard. With that two-year window closing, Ranney needs to pull out all the stops and do whatever it takes to win now. Future be damned!

Highland Freedom

Owners: Bob Sylvester, Sr. (manager), Bobby Sylvester (GM)
2023 Record: 48-112 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Framber Valdez (.708), Mitch Keller (.713), Jesus Luzardo (.711), Bryce Miller (.720), Lucas Giolito (.799), Edward Cabrera (.696)
Bullpen: Devin Williams (.456), Tyler Holton (.536), Jeff Hoffman (.501), Abner Uribe (.484), Ryan Thompson (.591), Trevor May (.659), Mason Miller (.614), Andrew Nardi (.662), Elvis Peguero (.617), Colin Poche (.580), Will Vest (.592), Edward Cabrera (.696)
Projected Lineup: Marcus Semien (2B, .800/.836), Yandy Diaz (1B, 1.101/.881), Luis Robert (CF, .952/.834), Masataka Yoshida (LF, .746/.795), Ryan Jeffers (C, .940/.828), Jarred Kelenic/Will Benson (RF, .774/.938), Tommy Pham (DH, .787/.768), Gio Urshela/Royce Lewis (3B, .868/.962), Rodolfo Castro/C.J. Abrams (SS, .821/.786)

Strengths: It seems like the trendy thing to do in the BDBL is stock your bullpen with so many relievers that you can't possibly use them all, just to keep other teams from having enough quality bullpen innings to get by. The Freedom already had Williams, Holton, Uribe, Nardi, Peguero, Poche, Vest, and Cabrera in their pen. Then they went out and traded for Hoffman and Miller. Then they went ahead and drafted May and Thompson. They now have an 18-man pitching staff, which means probably seven of those names above will be rotting away on their reserve roster this year.

As bloated as the bullpen is, the lineup is nearly as bloated. Highland can field a lineup against both lefties and righties where every batter in the lineup owns a split OPS above .760. The Freedom own the second-highest total of runs created in the BDBL and rank among the top half of the league in most offensive categories. They also stole a BDBL-high 255 bases, and were successful in 82% of steal attempts.

In terms of WAR, the Freedom own three of the top-25 starting pitchers in the game.

Weaknesses: The 45th member of the Highland bullpen is a total bum. [Insert eye-rolling emoji here.]

Outlook: Up until I began writing this preview, I had no idea Highland had positioned themselves so quickly to not only contend, but to advance far into the postseason. The last time I checked, the Freedom were a last-place team with 112 losses. How the hell did they turn it around so quickly?

Much of Highland's turnaround is thanks to their farm system, which produced Moncada, Robert, Yoshida, Abrams, Lewis, Keller, Kelenic, Luzardo, and Williams. That same farm system produced Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzalez, Andrew Abbott, Brett Baty, MacKenzie Gore, and Casey Mize. Those players were flipped in trade for Mason Miller, Framber Valdez, Marcus Semien, Ryan Jeffers, and Jeff Hoffman.

Prediction: 3rd place. This may be my toughest prediction. This does not look like a third-place team, but neither do Lake Norman and Niagara. If Highland were in any other division beside this one and the McGowan, I would pick them to win it. Sadly, for Freedom fans, they happen to play in the toughest division in the BDBL.

D.C. Memorials

Owner: Adam Miner
2023 Record: 65-95 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Nathan Eovaldi (.677), Jordan Lyles (.805), Sean Manaea (.703), Cole Ragans (.592), Graham Ashcraft (.782)
Bullpen: Miguel Castro (.656), Genesis Cabrera (.723), Jordan Wicks (.741), Giovanny Gallegos (.758), Kyle Finnegan (.741)
Projected Lineup: Lars Nootbar (CF, .635/.835), Brandon Lowe (2B, .512/.814), Tyler O'Neill (LF, .794/.684), Jake Cronenworth (1B, .666/.700), James McCann (C, .592/.703), Jake McCarthy (RF, .649/.643), Ildemaro Vargas/Josh Smith (SS, .800/.623), Ramon Urias (3B, .654/.726), Corey Julks (DH, .620/.658)

Strengths: Eovaldi is pretty good.

Weaknesses: Where to begin? For starters, this team doesn't have anywhere near enough innings to get through a full season -- and that's counting Adam Wainwright's 101 innings. (Wainwright posted an 8.00 ERA in those 101 innings.) This team will need to pick up even more awful pitchers from the free agent scrap heap just to get through this season. In other words, this is going to get even uglier.

The lineup is an absolute mess. The Memorials rank dead-last in team OPS, dead-last in runs created, and dead-last in RC/27. Their lineup against lefties includes a grand total of one hitter with an OPS of .800 -- and Vargas (.800) barely makes that cut. The lineup against righties includes two: Nootbar (.835) and Lowe (.814). The everyday lineup will include several players with a sub-.600 OPS.

Outlook: Man, this is a bad team. Like, historically bad. Will they top the 2020 Myrtle Beach Hitmen's 128 losses? Maybe not. But the Memorials will certainly lose more than the 95 games they lost last year. They could also break some records for worst team offense.

Unfortunately, this problem probably won't go away any time soon. Eovaldi is a free agent at the end of this season, and could fetch a decent return in trade. Aside from him, however, this team has little to nothing to offer in trade. Their two best hitters are untradeable. Nootbar was locked into a franchise contract this winter, and Lowe is carrying salaries of $6.5M and $7.5M over the next two years.

I'd like to say "help is on the way," but I can't. The D.C. farm has only one top-100 prospect: Paul Skenes. It's possible that Jac Caglianone and Roderick Arias will join the top-100 a year from now, but they're light years away from the big leagues. Memorials fans are going to have to suck it up for quite a while before this franchise is turned around.

Prediction: 4th place. And that's all I have to say about that.

Chicago Black Sox

Owner: John Gill
2023 Record: 77-83 (3rd place)
Projected Rotation: Bobby Miller (.647), Gavin Williams (.678), Domingo German (.691), Kyle Freeman (.848), Eury Perez (.707), Touki Toussaint (.704), Cal Quantrill (.782)
Bullpen: Pete Fairbanks (.506), Gregory Soto (.619), Nick Sandlin (.658), Jimmy Cordero (.597), J.T. Chargois (.686), Tyler Saucedo (.652), Jordan Weems (.693)
Projected Lineup: Willson Contreras (C, .906/.799), Bryce Harper (DH, .884/.907), Matt Olson (1B, .798/1.061), Fernando Tatis (CF, .915/.728), Kyle Schwarber (LF, .758/.849), Brandon Drury (2B, .800/.804), Christopher Morel (3B, .893/.798), Ramon Laureano/Joc Pederson (RF, .794/.786), Miguel Rojas/Alan Trejo (SS, .737/.695)

Strengths: The Black Sox own one of the best offenses in the league. They rank among the top-third in OPS, runs created, and RC/27. They also feature a well-balanced lineup that ranks among the top five in OPS against both lefties and righties. The one and only hole in the lineup is in the number nine position at shortstop. Every other spot in the lineup is a tough out.

Eight different Black Sox hit 20+ homers in MLB last year, led by the team's expensive new free agent addition, Matt Olson (54 HR.) Olson (146.7) and Schwarber (104.3) created over 100 runs last year. Harper (96.5) and Tatis (83.5) also had productive years. As a team, the Black Sox created over 1,000 runs in MLB.

Weaknesses: The pitching staff is an afterthought. All of John Gill's efforts this winter went into rebuilding his offense at the expense of his pitching. At $4 million, Fairbanks is the team's highest-paid pitcher. Chicago's best starting pitchers are all severely limited in usage. Miller (136), Williams (90), German (119), and Perez (100) can each only pitch half a season. The question then becomes: what about the other half?

Outlook: The Black Sox lost half their lineup to free agency this winter. John Gill then spent $20.5 million to get two of them (Harper and Schwarber) back. The $13.5 million signing of Olson pushes this lineup over the top into elite territory. The problem is that pitching staff. As it stands, the Black Sox don't have enough innings to get through a full season. And that counts all of Kyle Freeland's (5.41 CERA) 155+ innings, all of Brandon Bielak's (5.44) 80 innings, and all of Cal Quantrill's (4.87) 99+ innings.

This team, as presently constructed, would probably score 850 runs and allow 850. John Gill could add an arm or two and solve that usage problem. It would cost him a pretty penny, though, and the Black Sox farm is pretty well depleted beyond Jordan Lawlar, Jace Jung, and J.J. Wetherholt. Would trading one or more of those three for a quality starting pitcher be worth the sacrifice?

Prediction: 1st place. I am banking this prediction on my belief that John Gill will add at least one quality starting pitcher through trade. If not, then bump this team down to second place.

North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs

Owner: Ian Hartner
2023 Record: 76-84 (4th place)
Projected Rotation: Jordan Montgomery (.688), Nick Pivetta (.685), J.P. France (.737), Jack Flaherty (.819), Max Fried (.633)
Bullpen: Enyel De Los Santos (.633), A.J. Minter (.651), Pedro Avila (.672), Nick Anderson (.643), Jason Foley (.633), Ian Gibaut (.685), Cole Irvin (.735), Keaton Winn (.705)
Projected Lineup: Michael Harris (CF, .797/.812), Xander Bogaerts (SS, .797/.787), Spencer Steer (DH, .928/.780), J.T. Realmuto (C, .838/.733), Alec Bohm (1B, .929/.701), Matt Chapman (3B, .890/.722), Brandon Marsh (RF, .717/.864), Bryson Stott (2B, .730/.753), Chas McCormick/Brendan Donovan (LF, 1.008/.831)

Strengths: This is an excellent lineup, capable of scoring 800+ runs. The top half features four players who could all appear in the all-star game this year. Steer (101.6), Bogaerts (92.0), Stott (85.4), and Harris (80.4) all created more than 80 runs in MLB last year. The Iron Spider Pigs, as a whole, created 939.9 runs, which ranks eighth in the BDBL.

This lineup is especially strong against left-handers. Their .819 OPS against lefties ranks second in the BDBL. McCormick (1.008 OPS), Bohm (.929), Steer (.928), and Chapman (.890) all crush southpaws.

Weaknesses: The front end of the rotation is solid, thanks to GM Hartner's $7.5 million investment in free agent Montgomery. The back end has some issues. Fried only has 85 innings of usage this year. Flaherty (.866/.768 splits) was bloody awful last year. The Pigs have enough innings to get through the season, but they aren't very good innings.

The team's best relievers have some major split issues. De Los Santos (.779/.515), Minter (.801/.570), Avila (.578/.742), Anderson (.366/.848), Foley (.844/.506), and Gibaut (.801/.580) all have a split difference above 100. This can be easily exploited -- especially now that we've introduced the three-batter-minimum rule.

Outlook: I never thought I would say this so soon, but the Pigs look like they could be a contender. If they were to add one more quality arm to this rotation, and maybe a well-balanced reliever or two, we're looking at a team that can win 85-90 games. That is usually enough to win a wildcard, if not a division title.

In order to win this division, Hartner has to find some way to bolster this bullpen. It will take more than one addition. The starting rotation could also be an issue. The foundations for a division-winning team are here, but the builders skimped on a few of the supplies.

Prediction: 2nd place. See my note under Chicago's prediction. If neither team makes a move to add quality pitching at some point, North Carolina could take this division. I still give the edge to Chicago, regardless.

Charlotte Mustangs

Owner: Tony Chamra
2023 Record: 95-65 (1st place)
Projected Rotation: Jose Berrios (.697), Kyle Hendricks (.686), Patrick Sandoval (.718), Zack Greinke (.779), James Paxton (.765)
Bullpen: Evan Phillips (.535), Emilio Pagan (.553), Chase Silseth (.711), Kenley Jansen (.693), Jeff Brigham (.725)
Projected Lineup: Luis Arraez (1B, .760/.891), Juan Soto (LF, .813/.980), Alex Bregman (DH, .696/.850), Julio Rodriguez (CF, .842/.811), Daulton Varsho/Alex Verdugo (RF, .722/.793), Martin Maldonado/Francisco Alvarez (C, .816/.777), Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B, .847/.721), Nick Madrigal (2B, .618/.681), Santiago Espinal (SS, .657/.633)

Strengths: The top half of this lineup is just about as good as it gets. Arraez (.354/.393/.469) could win his second EL batting title in a row. Soto (.275/.410/.519, 35 HR) and Rodriguez (.275/.333/.485, 32 HR) are a couple of all-stars. Five different Mustangs hit 20 or more homers in MLB last year. Charlotte scored 818 runs a year ago. If that is the over/under for 2024, I'm taking the over.

Weaknesses: The Mustangs rank near the bottom of the BDBL with a 4.65 team ERA. Charlotte pitchers allowed more home runs (279) last year than any other team in the league. They also walked more batters (670) than any other team. The Mustangs have plenty of innings available for usage, but the problem is that so many of those innings are ugly. Greinke posted a 5.06 ERA in 142+ innings last year. Ken Waldichuk pitched 141 innings with a 5.36 ERA. Even if Charlotte does score more than 818 runs, it wouldn't be enough to overcome such mediocre pitching.

The bottom half of the Charlotte lineup is fairly putrid. There are no good offensive options for the second base and shortstop positions. Arraez is rated (Fr) at second base, but that would leave first base to someone like Yuli Gurriel (.630/.678). The bottom half of this lineup feels like an afterthought.

Outlook: It is difficult to tell if Tony Chamra is in "go for it" or "rebuild it" mode this year. He was barely able to participate in this winter's auction and draft, having only $3 million to spend. He made just one trade this winter, offloading Anthony Rendon's contract, but taking Greinke's in its place. I get the feeling that Chamra is simply holding down the fort this year, keeping the foundation of this team in place, and waiting for the end of this season when he can dump the salaries of Greinke ($6.5M), Jansen ($7.5M), Berrios ($5.1M), and Gurriel ($9M).

If Chamra decides to wave that white flag, free-agent-to-be Arraez would be some tasty trade bait. Berrios and Jansen could also fetch a decent return.

Prediction: 3rd place. I made similar comments about Charlotte's lack of quality pitching on this page a year ago and they finished with 95 wins and the division title. So what do I know?

Myrtle Beach Hitmen

Owners: Mitch Gill (GM), Ryne Gill (manager)
2023 Record: 89-71 (2nd place, EL wildcard winners)
Projected Rotation: Kodai Senga (.627), Cristian Javier (.733), Chris Sale (.709), Tarik Skubal (.540)
Bullpen: Jordan Hicks (.658), Colin Holderman (.685), Jalen Beeks (.718), Michael Fulmer (.731), Daniel Duarte (.691)
Projected Lineup: Nolan Arenado (3B, .662/.809), Joey Meneses/Andrew Vaughn (1B, .771/.774), Nolan Jones (RF, .902/.945), Tyler Stephenson/Salvador Perez (C, .799/.730), Kris Bryant (LF, .702/.674), Kike Hernandez (CF, .642/.648), Amed Rosario (2B, .768/.636), Aledmys Diaz (DH, .640/.601), Javier Baez (SS, .659/.571)

Strengths: Senga and Jones -- two of the players acquired in the mega-whopper Corbin Carroll trade made during the draft -- are now the two best players on this team. Senga is a legit ace and Jones should make the all-star team -- possibly as a starter.

Weaknesses: Aside from those two, there isn't much to get excited about on this Hitmen roster. Numbers-wise, the Hitmen rank among the bottom-three in the BDBL in team OPS, and toward the bottom-third in OPS allowed. The bottom half of this lineup is just dreadful. The Chicago Black Sox won a lot of games with Bryant and Baez in their lineup, but these ain't your father's Bryant and Baez.

Outlook: Hitmen fans waited a long time for their team to succeed in the BDBL. They suffered longer than any other fans in the league. They finally got to root for a winning team in 2022, and then experienced postseason baseball last year for the first time since the 90s. I hate to say this, but that fun is over, and we're looking at a sub-.500 ballclub once again. The Hitmen lost half their lineup to free agency and there wasn't a "B" group waiting in the wings to take their place.

Myrtle Beach owns one of the most impressive farm clubs in the league. The problem is that their best prospects are all at least three years away from contributing. (Probably more like four or five.) This means that the most patient fans in baseball are going to have to be patient again.

Prediction: 4th place. Right back where they started.