January, 2024

2024 Draft Day Preview

One year ago, I wrote about this year's auction class in glowing terms. With several franchised player contracts coming to an end all at once, the Class of '24 appeared to be loaded with talent that was previously untouchable. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper in the same auction class? Both surefire locks to be first-ballot BDBL Hall of Famers, and both hitting free agency before the age of 32! Sadly, or perhaps fortunately, both players suffered injuries in MLB '23 and didn't play the full season. Maybe this is a golden buying opportunity, or maybe this is the beginning of their inevitable declines. No risk, no reward!

Trout and Harper are hardly the only strengths of this class, so let's get right to that.

What are the strengths of this year's auction class?

Trout (.263/.367/.490 in 362 PA) and Harper (.293/.401/.499 in 546) may not have the flashy stats they've had in the past, but both are still major impact players. Both are young enough to bounce back in MLB '24. The biggest prize of the 2024 auction is Matt Olson (.283/.389/.604, 54 HR), who is still in his prime at age 30. He could very well fetch $20 million or more, based on past auctions.

This auction is absolutely stuffed with impact bats. In addition to the above, buyers will be bidding furiously for Yandy Diaz (.330/.410/.522), Jose Ramirez (.282/.356/.475), Ozzie Albies (.280/.336/.513, 33 HR), Brandon Nimmo (.274/.363/.466), Kyle Schwarber (.197/.343/.474, 47 HR), Francisco Lindor (.254/.336/.470), J.P. Crawford (.266/.380/.438), Xander Bogaerts (.285/.350/.440), and seven others with 80+ runs created.

On the pitching side, Luis Castillo (197 IP, 2.98 CERA), Aaron Nola (194, 3.41), Zack Wheeler (192, 2.83), Jordan Montgomery (189, 3.25), Sandy Alcantara (185, 3.54), Freddy Peralta (166, 3.15), and Merrill Kelly (178, 3.22) all offer full-season workloads and top-of-the-rotation numbers. The market for closers consists of Josh Hader (2.16 CERA in 56+ IP), Matt Strahm (2.57 in 87+), and Peter Fairbanks (2.13 in 45+).

If you're looking for a buy-low opportunity on a perennial all-star, maybe Nolan Arenado (.266/.315/.459), Willy Adames (.217/.310/.407), George Springer (.258/.327/.405), or Chris Sale (3.39 CERA in 102+ IP) would interest you.

What are the weaknesses?

If you desperately need a full-time starting pitcher, be prepared to open your wallet nice and wide, because there are only a dozen pitchers in this entire auction/draft with 170+ innings. Two of those dozen are Patrick Corbin (5.43 CERA) and Lance Lynn (5.24). Four of those dozen are on the wrong side of age 35, so buyer beware when going Type-H with a guaranteed two-year contract after this season. Remove all of the elderly and awful from this draft, and there are only six pitchers who are younger than 35 with a CERA lower than 4.00.

As of the time I am writing this, there are only two relievers in the auction, which is a departure from past years. Brandon Woodruff, who pitched only 67 innings in MLB '23 and is out for all of MLB '24, posted a 1.80 CERA and could be used in relief, theoretically. Otherwise, teams looking for a closer are S.O.L.

If you need a catcher, well, sorry, but you'll probably have to wait until the draft. There is only one (Mitch Garver) in the auction and he only had 344 PAs last year.

What about the draft class?

As mentioned above, if you are in the market for a quality reliever, you're much more likely to find one in the draft than in the auction. Hector Neris (2.40 CERA in 68+ IP), Hoby Milner (2.12 in 64+), Jose LeClerc (2.58 in 57), Jake Diekman (2.91 in 56+), and Gregory Soto (2.85 in 60+) are arguably the best of the lot.

If you're shopping for the type of player who stumbled over the past year or two, but could regain his former all-star form, this draft class offers the likes of Jacob deGrom, Chad Greene, Madison Bumgarner, Luis Severino, Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda, D.J. LeMahieu, Michael Conforto, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Gary Sanchez, Starling Marte, Paul DeJong, Mitch Haniger, Trevor Story, and Mike Zunino.

How much money is out there this year?

The word "shit-ton" doesn't seem to be strong enough to describe the amount of money to be spent this winter. Over $2 million per player nearly matches the all-time auction-era league record.

If past trends hold, we'll see over $300 million spent in the auction alone. That would make this a four-year trend after twelve straight seasons below $300 million.

Which teams will be spending all that money?

The Jacksonville Jackalopes lead the pack with $50.6 million in spending cash. This is only the fourth time in auction history that a team has a budget of more than $50 million. If you hold the belief that money can buy happiness in the BDBL, you should probably be reminded that Tim Chubb had a near-record $54.8 million to spend last winter and finished with 100 losses.

After the Jackalopes, the Chicago Black Sox ($46.1M), South Loop Furies ($35.6), Virginia Sovereigns ($33.8), and Las Vegas Flamingos ($29.6) round out the top five in overall spending bucks. On a per-player basis, the Furies ($5.1M) own the lead, with the Flagstaff Peaks ($4.4) and Darien Blue Wave ($4.0) trailing close behind. No other team has more than $3 million per player to spend this winter.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Niagara Locks ($5.5 million overall and only $600,000 per player) will barely participate in either the auction or draft this winter. The Charlotte Mustangs ($3 million) are likely shut out of the auction as well, but have only three roster spots to fill. The D.C. Memorials ($5.5M for 5 players) are in the same boat.

Should I save my money for 2025?

The Class of '25 may be the strongest pitching class we've ever seen. It is highlighted by the reigning AL Cy Young, Gerrit Cole. It also includes the runner-up for AL Cy Young, Sonny Gray, and two others (Framber Valdez and Corbin Burnes) who received votes for Cy Young last year. In addition, the '25 class includes Clayton Kershaw, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Berrios, Ranger Suarez, Max Fried, and Clay Holmes.

The hitters who will be available in 2025 are not nearly as impressive. The class is highlighted by a couple of high-octane middle infielders, Luis Arraez and Trea Turner. In addition, the class will include Ketel Marte, Christian Yelich, Willson Contreras, Marcus Semien, Tim Anderson, J.D. Martinez, Mark Canha, Yuli Gurriel, Jorge Polanco, and Brandon Belt.