March, 2024
2024 BDBL
Farm Report
It's that time of year again when we
pause our current season just for a moment to look into the future.
Great baseball teams, both real and simulated, are built around a strong
foundation of highly-productive -- and dirt-cheap -- youth. Practically everyone
knows this. Every team in the BDBL that is currently favored to win
their division had a fantastic farm system in the recent past. Darien,
the overwhelming favorite to win this year's championship, has had a
top-ten farm system five years in a row. Lake Norman, the EL favorite,
owns the best farm system in the BDBL and has ranked among the top-five
three years in a row. Having a great farm system doesn't guarantee
success, but it sure helps a lot.
This annual farm report is meant to
provide a snapshot in time, showing the strength of our farm systems as
deemed by the "experts." This report is not perfect nor ideal. Amateurs
still playing high school and college ball are not included. Foreign
amateurs and professionals also are not included. Some of the best
prospects in the game are excluded from this report. It is, for the time
being, the best we have to work with.
This year's panel of "experts" includes
Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus. For the newbies, my
method is pretty simple. I assign 100 points to the #1-ranked player on
each list, 99 points to the #2, and so on through #100. I then tally up
the points and produce a table that looks like this:
|
Tm |
Total Pts |
24 |
23 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
10 |
09 |
08 |
07 |
06 |
05 |
04 |
03 |
02 |
01 |
00 |
|
LKN |
1,831 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
12 |
8 |
14 |
14 |
19 |
9 |
5 |
17 |
22 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
13 |
20 |
4 |
22 |
19 |
14 |
|
WCB |
1,348 |
2 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
21 |
6 |
17 |
24 |
18 |
16 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
16 |
9 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
6 |
|
CHI |
1,239 |
3 |
1 |
15 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
13 |
15 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
13 |
15 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
10 |
14 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
|
MUL |
1,149 |
4 |
21 |
17 |
3 |
9 |
15 |
16 |
13 |
2 |
13 |
9 |
23 |
23 |
20 |
6 |
10 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
10 |
7 |
1 |
|
DCM |
928 |
5 |
13 |
22 |
11 |
16 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
10 |
1 |
24 |
8 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
19 |
10 |
23 |
17 |
12 |
19 |
|
CLT |
881 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
5 |
11 |
7 |
14 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
10 |
21 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
20 |
24 |
|
DBW |
789 |
7 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
16 |
18 |
11 |
21 |
23 |
18 |
15 |
9 |
15 |
13 |
16 |
21 |
20 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
6 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
|
ISP |
768 |
8 |
5 |
5 |
15 |
17 |
20 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
24 |
18 |
22 |
11 |
24 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
|
HLF |
764 |
9 |
6 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
17 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
11 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
16 |
11 |
15 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
14 |
15 |
|
FLG |
695 |
10 |
7 |
18 |
16 |
13 |
22 |
22 |
16 |
16 |
22 |
20 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
3 |
7 |
15 |
23 |
22 |
15 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
|
VIR |
568 |
11 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
24 |
23 |
15 |
20 |
22 |
11 |
12 |
21 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
13 |
16 |
6 |
13 |
4 |
16 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
18 |
|
LVF |
525 |
12 |
9 |
6 |
13 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
21 |
20 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
18 |
22 |
20 |
11 |
10 |
14 |
15 |
21 |
17 |
13 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
|
SCS |
495 |
13 |
14 |
9 |
17 |
14 |
19 |
21 |
14 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
12 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
12 |
5 |
9 |
13 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
17 |
|
SLF |
491 |
14 |
18 |
7 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
20 |
10 |
18 |
9 |
23 |
10 |
20 |
8 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
7 |
8 |
15 |
10 |
|
LAU |
452 |
15 |
22 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
4 |
4 |
23 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
19 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
19 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
|
CLE |
397 |
16 |
11 |
19 |
21 |
15 |
9 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
15 |
19 |
19 |
16 |
10 |
21 |
20 |
13 |
19 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
20 |
|
KAN |
390 |
17 |
10 |
20 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
12 |
6 |
19 |
18 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
22 |
23 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
11 |
16 |
11 |
4 |
|
MBH |
376 |
18 |
12 |
13 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
9 |
24 |
24 |
7 |
18 |
12 |
21 |
21 |
7 |
13 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
|
NIA |
353 |
19 |
4 |
12 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
11 |
23 |
24 |
6 |
9 |
23 |
|
AKR |
335 |
20 |
15 |
8 |
19 |
22 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
16 |
11 |
14 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
12 |
8 |
23 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
15 |
13 |
2 |
9 |
|
SPG |
136 |
21 |
17 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
12 |
9 |
8 |
12 |
4 |
13 |
8 |
13 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
18 |
18 |
8 |
|
RAV |
84 |
22 |
16 |
14 |
23 |
20 |
11 |
7 |
17 |
13 |
12 |
19 |
11 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
22 |
24 |
23 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
13 |
5 |
|
BCJ |
38 |
23 |
23 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
17 |
23 |
22 |
14 |
19 |
24 |
6 |
6 |
13 |
8 |
9 |
23 |
9 |
3 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
21 |
|
JAC |
12 |
24 |
19 |
16 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
17 |
7 |
17 |
14 |
22 |
9 |
17 |
5 |
4 |
20 |
22 |
18 |
22 |
8 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
5 |
13 |
#1
Lake Norman Monsters
Ranked prospects: Jackson
Holliday (1), Walker Jenkins (12), Samuel Basallo (14), Coby Mayo (22),
Colton Cowser (32), Jefferson Quero (34), Noble Meyer (55), Rhett Lowder
(59), Bryce Eldridge (82), Josue De Paula (82), Tekoah Roby (92)
Unranked prospects: Homer Bush, Jr., Carter Johnson, Luis Lara,
Walker Martin, A.J. Vukovich, Cade Povich, Kendry Rojas, Santiago Suarez
This is the first time this franchise
has ever ranked number one in this report and it may not be the last,
depending on how quickly the Baltimore Orioles move their prospects up the
ladder. Holliday was the first player selected in the 2022 MLB draft,
and the first player selected by the Monsters in the midseason farm
draft that year. He was the second player selected in that draft, behind
Jackson Chourio, who happens to the the number two prospect in this
report.
Jenkins was also picked up by the
Monsters in 2022, in the second round of the winter farm draft. He was
the fifth overall pick in last year's draft, out of high school, and is
already a top-15 prospect after only 26 professional games. MLB.com
calls him the "best high school prospect since Josh Hamilton," which is
crazy-high praise if you're old enough to remember the hype around
Hamilton. Jenkins a five-tool center fielder with massive power
and bat speed.
Basallo went from unranked a year ago
to the top-15 this year following a monster full-season pro debut that
ended with a .953 OPS at the Double-A level as a teenager. A catcher who
can hit 20 home runs is special on its own, but to do it at that young
of an age at that level of competition is nearly unheard of.
Unfortunately for Basallo and the Monsters, the Orioles already have a
pretty good young catcher who also is an extraordinary hitter, so he may
need to change positions at some point.
Cowser is yet another top-five MLB
draft pick and yet another Baltimore Orioles prospect. In fact, four of
Lake Norman's top five prospects are Orioles. Must be a massive
coincidence. Both Cowser and Mayo dominated at the Triple-A level last
year, so it seems likely that both will graduate from this list by this
time next year. That's five impact bats that could be added to a Lake
Norman team that already has an EL championship under their belt and is
heavily-favored to win another this year. Must be nice.
#2
West Chester Blooms
Ranked prospects: Evan
Carter (4), James Wood (9), Jacob Misiorowski (39), Masyn Winn (40),
Kyle Teel (44), Xavier Isaac (56), Chase Hampton (70), Thomas Saggese
(94), Ryan Clifford (101), Gavin Stone (111), D.L. Hall (121)
Unranked prospects: Justin Foscue, Blaze Jordan, Braden
Montgomery, Graham Pauley, Nelson Rada, Trey Sweeney, Ben Brown, Caden
Dana, Josh Hartle, Jairo Iriarte, Yordanny Monegro, Kumar Rocker, Thomas
White
In all my years of writing these
reports I have never seen anything like this. The Blooms franchise (then
called the Philadelphia Fightin's) ranked dead-last in this ranking a
year ago. They had just two ranked prospects: Brice Turang (113) and
Matt Mervis (132). Twelve unranked prospects were also on the roster.
One year later, not a single one of those fourteen farm players is on
the Blooms roster. All eleven of this team's ranked prospects, and every
one of the thirteen unranked, have been acquired over the past year.
That is beyond impressive.
Carter, Woods, and Isaac were all
acquired in the huge eight-player blockbuster trade with Niagara this
winter, in which the Blooms gave up Kevin Gausman, Blake Snell, and
three others. Carter is ranked among the top-five by all three of our
expert sources. He was a hero in the postseason last year and is very
unlikely to remain in this report a year from now. Wood has improved in
all three years of his professional career. Although he strikes out a
ton (173 last year), he has massive power and excellent speed. He
should get at least a cup of coffee in DC this year.
When the Blooms acquired Misiorowski in
trade last year, I noted that he would need to perform at least as well
as the pitcher who was traded for him (Justin Steele) in order to
justify that trade. Given Steele's performance last year, that's a tall
order. Misiorowski is well-known for his blazing fastball and
devastating slider, but can't seem to control where those pitches go. He
owns a career BB/9 rate of 6.0.
Winn and Teel were both acquired in
trades this past winter. Winn is a lightning-fast runner with an arm
that MLB.com calls "legendary." Teel is a catcher who has hit
exceedingly well at every level he has played. He moved quickly up the
ladder last year after he was drafted 14th overall in MLB, and did not
struggle at all despite facing tougher competition.
West Chester will lose Carter in this
ranking a year from now, but they will more than likely gain Montgomery
and White. Depending on how quickly he is moved, Hartle could join them
as well. The future of the West Chester farm is bright.
#3
Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Jordan
Lawlar (9), Jett Williams (31), Cole Young (42), Owen Caissie (46),
Dalton Rushing (47), Spencer Jones (49), Jace Jung (65), Yanquiel
Fernandez (84), Tyler Soderstrom (103)
Unranked prospects: Derek Curiel, P.J. Morlando, Kevin Parada,
Jefferson Rojas, Devin Taylor, Christhian Vaquero, J.J. Wetherholt, Josh
Knoth, Owen Murphy, Blake Wolters
The number-one-ranked team from last
year drops to number three after the graduations of a couple of their
young stud pitchers, Eury Perez and Bobby Miller. When your farm ranking
falls for that reason, that's something you can live with. Their new number one, Lawlar,
has already graduated to the big leagues. Although he flopped in his MLB
debut, he will likely stick in spring training. He knocked the crap out
of the ball in the past two minor league seasons and has nothing left to
prove.
The Black Sox have six top-50
prospects, which is more than they had a year ago when they ranked
number one. Williams, Young, and Caissie barely made the rankings last
year. Although Williams is more of a speed-over-power type of prospect,
he still managed to hit 13 homers (and 8 triples) last year. Fellow 2022
MLB first-rounder Young was thrown into pro ball right out of high
school and has dominated every level he's played. Caissie reached the
Double-A level last year just three years out of high school. He
finished among the top-five in all three slash categories at that level
despite being one of the league's youngest players.
Rushing was ranked as high as #36
(Baseball Prospectus) and as low as #75 (MLB.com). His bat seems nearly
MLB-ready, but he needs more experience behind the plate before he's
fully ready. Jones (high of #33, low of #84) was another point of
disagreement between the same two expert sources. He's a power/speed guy,
strikes out a ton, and is one of the few Yankees prospects not owned by
Tony Badger.
Arguably the best prospect on this team
is currently in the unranked category. Wetherholt could be the first
name called in this year's MLB draft. He's currently ranked #2 by
Baseball America and #1 by MLB.com.
#4
Florida Mulligans
Ranked prospects: Wyatt
Langford (5), Ethan Salas (8), Ricky Tiedemann (25), Brooks Lee (33),
Chase Dollander (64), Aidan Miller (89), Luis Morales (107)
Unranked prospects: Felnin Celesten, Jacob Cozart, Fernando Cruz,
Christian Moore, Jose Perdomo, Michael Sirota, Brock Wilken, Spencer
Arrighetti, Hagen Danner, Seth Hernandez, Henry Lalane, Yuki Matsui,
Jarlin Susana, Andrew Walters
The Mulligans leapfrogged seventeen
spots in this ranking thanks to the start of Langford's pro career and
the unexpected rise of Salas to the Double-A level in his very first
professional season at age seventeen. Langford absolutely crushed the
ball at every level he played last year, college and pro. There is a
chance he makes the Texas roster out of spring training. Salas
was rushed a little too quickly last year, but it is obvious why. He has
what many scouts are calling "generational talent."
Tiedemann was acquired this winter in
exchange for my entire bullpen. He is my highest-rated farm pitcher
since Shohei Ohtani, who ranked #20 in this report in 2018. Lee was the
only ranked prospect on this team a year ago. He crept up from #42 to
#33 after a solid season, and now looks as though he could make the big
league roster out of spring training.
I have promised myself to be patient as
I wait for Celesten to play actual baseball at some point, four
freakin' years after I drafted him. I learned my lesson in
impatience with that Wander F'ing Franco debacle. I not only have to
wait for Celesten to play a single pro game, but also Perdomo and Cruz.
I have never been a patient man, so this is quite a struggle.
#5
D.C. Memorials
Ranked prospects: Paul
Skenes (7), Carson Williams (24), Michael Busch (50), Kyle Manzardo
(61), Victor Scott (81), Roderick Arias (87), Edwin Arroyo (94), Austin
Wells (100), Jordan Wicks (122)
Unranked prospects: Jac Caglianone, Wilfredo Lara, Alex Ramirez,
Gavin Turley, George Valera, Kahlil Watson, David Festa, Ben Kudrna,
Mason Montgomery, Yariel Rodriguez, Cole Wilcox
It is hard to believe that ten people
skipped over Skenes in the 2023 winter farm draft, but it's true. A few
of the names chosen ahead of Skenes: Justyn-Henry Molloy, Griff McGarry,
and Dustin Harris. To be fair, at the time, Skenes was not considered by
anyone to be the first player to be drafted that year. Looking back, it's
difficult to understand why. Skenes completely dominated his junior year
at LSU. It was arguably the most dominant season by a college pitcher
since Stephen Strasburg.
Williams is the latest in a seemingly
never-ending procession of excellent-hitting shortstops being produced by
the Tampa Bay Rays organization. Not only does he possess power and
speed, but some scouts believe he's a future Gold Glove winner. Skenes,
Williams, and Busch are the only three Memorials ranked by all three of
our expert sources. Busch has had a couple of monster seasons the past two
years, and looks as though he's ready for The Show.
Of the unranked group, the most
intriguing prospect is Gators two-way star Caglianone. Most scouts seem to
believe he will end up as an everyday hitter in the big leagues. He led
the NCAA with 33 homers last year, and is ranked #4 overall in the Class of
'24 by Baseball America and #5 by MLB.com.
#6
Charlotte Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Marcelo
Mayer (19), Jackson Jobe (20), Harry Ford (38), Colt Emerson (58), Tink
Hence (63), Ignacio Alvarez (125)
Unranked prospects: Gino Groover, Yorfran Medina, Benny
Montgomery, Eduardo Quintero, Sal Stewart, Cayden Wallace, Gordon
Graceffo, Gunnar Hoglund, Ty Madden, Cristian Mena, Karson Milbrandt,
Zander Mueth, Sixto Sanchez, Jun-Seok Shim
Two of Charlotte's top four prospects
are shortstops, but weirdly enough both might end up somewhere else on
the diamond. Mayer was the fourth overall pick in the 2021 MLB draft. He
missed most of last season with a shoulder injury, but still ranks among
the top-20. Emerson was also a first-round pick (22nd overall last
year). He managed to post a 1.000+ OPS in his pro debut.
Wedged in between those two are Jobe
and Ford. Jobe posted a crazy 6/84 BB/K ratio in 64 innings last year
across four levels of competition. All he needs to do to become a big
league ace is stay healthy. Ford has posted an OPS of .840 or better in
each of his first three pro seasons. His career minor league numbers are
.267/.416/.443 with nearly as many walks (200) as strikeouts (238). He's
a true rarity as a base-stealing catcher. All four of this team's top
four prospects were drafted in the first round of the MLB draft.
I'm pretty sure Tony Chamra drafted
every one of those unranked prospects because their first names are
misspelled. Seriously, "Gino?" "Cayden?" "Cristian?" "Karson?" "Zander?"
C'mon, man.
#7
Darien Blue Wave
Ranked prospects: Max Clark
(17), Noelvi Marte (21), Marco Luciano (41), Dylan Lesko (59), Nolan
Schanuel (97), Leodalis De Vries (128)
Unranked prospects: Caden Bodine, Oliver Dunn, Dawel Joseph,
Daylen Lile, David McCabe, Tai Peete, Jonathan Rodriguez, Rintaro
Sasaki, Cam Smith, Javier Vaz, Trevor Werner, Matthew Allan, Thatcher
Hurd, Cameron Johnson
Marte has already excelled at the MLB
level for 35 games last year, so he will most likely not be on this list
a year from now. The same goes for Luciano, who got a 14-game cup of
coffee last year. Marte is more of a pure hitter than Luciano, but
Luciano has more power. Neither shortstop is likely to stick at that
position over the next few years. The team's top prospect, Clark, was
the third overall pick in last year's MLB draft. He hit .283/.411/.543
in a brief 12-game pro debut at the Florida Complex League, and then hit
.154 in his A-ball debut. Despite that hiccup, all three expert sources
ranked him among their top-25.
Lesko has been injured the past two
years, walked 22 batters in 33 innings last year, and wasn't even ranked
among the top-100 by Baseball Prospectus, yet still made Baseball America's
top-40. De Vries hasn't even played a single
professional game, and is just 16 years old, but was ranked #99 by
Baseball America. Lee must know someone at that fake news outlet.
#8
North Carolina Iron Spider Pigs
Ranked prospects: Andrew
Painter (18), Kyle Harrison (29), Matt Shaw (34), Mick Abel (69), Max
Meyer (104)
Unranked prospects: Diego Cartaya, Jakob Marsee, Malcolm Moore,
Damiano Palmegiani, Anthony Silva, Drew Beam, Jake Eder, Dax Fulton,
Thomas Harrington, Griff McGarry, Johnathan Santucci, An Woo-Jin, Simeon
Woods Richardson
Painter didn't even pitch last year,
and has thrown fewer than 110 innings in his professional career, and
yet he's still a top-20 prospect. That's how good he is. Meyer didn't
pitch last year, either, and yet two of our three experts included him
in their top-100. Harrison has already earned his MLB cup of coffee
after blazing through the minor leagues and is very likely to contribute
to the 2025 Iron Spider Pigs. Abel (career 11.1 K/9) gives the North
Carolina farm system four pitchers with gaudy strikeout numbers in the
minor leagues.
This team's lone ranked hitter, Shaw,
posted a 1.000+ OPS in three levels after he was selected in the first
round (13th overall) of last year's MLB draft. There is a slight chance
he could stick with the big club out of spring training, but he is more
likely to head to Triple-A. The player more likely to stick immediately
is Marsee, who isn't even ranked. He had a tremendous Arizona Fall
League season and looks to be big-league ready.
Boy, Diego Cartaya's career sure fell
off a cliff, didn't it? He was ranked #16 on this page a year ago, but
isn't even ranked now. He posted consistently great numbers in 2021 and
2022, but hit just .189/.278/.379 last year. What the hell happened to
him?
#9
Highland Freedom
Ranked prospects: Jackson
Chourio (2), Colson Montgomery (11), Hurston Waldrep (51), Mason Miller
(80), Brock Porter (117)
Unranked prospects: Ricardo Cabrera, Brady Ebel, Elijah Green,
Ethan Holliday, Brandon Mayea, Xavier Neyens, Ramon Ramirez, Joendry
Vargas, Samual Zavala, Nate Lavender, Roki Sasaki, Abner Uribe, Abner
Uribe, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shunpeita Yamashita
As everyone now knows, Miller is the
best pitching prospect in the game of baseball since Sidd Finch. The
fact that he was only included once by our panel of experts (#45 by BA)
frankly casts doubt on this entire exercise. Boy, will MLB.com and
Baseball Prospectus feel stupid when he wins the next ten straight Cy
Young awards!
Chourio is already signed to an $82
million contract before stepping onto a MLB ballfield. For good reason,
I suppose. Last year, he became the first 20/40 player in minor league
ball since Ronald Acuna, who I'm told is pretty good. Chourio will probably graduate from this report by
this time next year. Montgomery has drawn comparisons to Corey Seager,
but I don't see the power numbers matching up. Waldrep was the 24th
player chosen in last year's MLB draft. The former Gator moved quickly
up the pro ladder, although he struggled with his control. He could
probably use a full year of Triple-A before he's ready for The Show.
I'm more impressed with the unranked
group than with the ranked group. Yamamoto, of course, is the cream of
that crop. He's now the highest-paid pitcher in the game, and probably
for a good reason. He will hit the ground running and become a Cy
Young-caliber
ace for the Freedom next season at a tasty salary of just $100,000. Sasaski is arguably the best pitcher in
Japan (and I don't think anyone would argue.) Yamashita is the only
other challenger in that regard. The problem with both is that they are
only 21 and 20 years old, respectively, and may not see the BDBL until
the next decade.
Holliday (brother of #1 overall
prospect Jackson and son of Matt) is currently regarded to be the #1
high school prospect in the 2025 draft class. Mayea was one of the top
international prospects available last year. In other words, another
wave of talent is waiting in the wings.
#10
Flagstaff Peaks
Ranked prospects: Jackson
Merrill (12), Drew Gilbert (53), Tyler Black (54), Jared Jones (73),
Jacob Wilson (78), Orelvis Martinez (101), Anthony Solometo (111)
Unranked prospects: Maui Ahuna, Cade Arrambide, Zach Cole,
Alfredo Duno, Seaver King, Jung-hoo Lee, Ivan Melendez, Brandon Barreira,
Wilmer D. Flores, Marco Raya, River Ryan, Spencer Shwellenbach, Hagen
Smith, Anthony Solometo
Greg Newgard signed Ketel Marte to a
somewhat-risky $9.5 million salary in the 2023 auction. That risk paid
big dividends when he was able to flip Marte to the Lake Norman Monsters
this winter for top prospect Merrill and Mark Canha. Merrill has always
had trouble staying healthy, but when he is, he shows that he can hit
for both average and power. If not for the presence of Xander Bogaerts
he would likely stick at shortstop. For the time being, it looks like
he'll be a super-utility type of player. He will likely graduate off of
this list over the next year.
Gilbert will never win any home run
hitting contests, but he does everything else well enough to become an
everyday MLB outfielder. Black has done nothing but hit everywhere he's
been. He didn't display any power until last year, but his scouting
reports suggest it's for real.
Among the unranked group, King ranks
among the top ten prospects in this year's MLB draft class. Lee was the
number one international hitting prospect on the market when he signed
with the boring Giants. He will more than likely be an asset for the
2025 Peaks.
#11
Virginia Sovereigns
Ranked prospects: Roman
Anthony (15), Curtis Mead (48), Drew Thorpe (57), Everson Pereira (94),
Kevin McGonigle (107), Brayden Taylor (123)
Unranked prospects: Andres Chaparro, John Cruz, Deyvison De Los
Santos, Keiner Delgado, Jonny Farmelo, Anthony Hall, Colton Ledbetter,
Caleb Lomavita, Arjun Nimmala, Paulino Santana, Jared Serna, Jurrangelo
Cijntje, Will Warren
This is rarified air for the Virginia
franchise. Their farm system has not ranked this high since 2015, back
when the franchise was still owned by the Evil Emperor himself. The
reason for that is because Tony Badger has finally (mostly) abandoned
his Yankees-only farm strategy. Of the team's six ranked prospects, only
one (Pereira) is a Yankee. Of the thirteen unranked, only six are
Yankees.
Anthony was ranked among the top-ten
(#8) by Baseball Prospectus and in the 20s by the other two sources. He
absolutely raked (.294/.412/.569) at the High-A level as a 19-year-old
last year and more than held his own in a 10-game Double-A stint. He
will likely return to that level to start this year. I wouldn't be
surprised to see him in the big leagues in September.
Mead has already made it to The Show,
but struggled a bit (.253/.326/.349) once he got there. He should be
fine over the long run, as he has hit at every other level he's played.
Thorpe -- who was originally a Yankee -- posted some gaudy strikeout
numbers last year (182, most in the minors, in 139+ IP) even though he
doesn't possess an overwhelming fastball. At minimum, he will become a
quality back-end starter.
McGonigle and Taylor were both
first-round MLB draft picks last year and have high upsides. The most
exciting prospect on this roster, in my opinion, is Santana, who was
Virginia's #1 draft pick in January. He is currently ranked as the #2
international prospect in this year's class by MLB.com. They wrote that
he could move as quickly up the pro ladder as Ethan Salas did a year
ago. He is an outfielder who has drawn comparisons to Julio Rodriguez.
But he's not a Yankee.
#12
Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Cade
Horton (25), Noah Schultz (43), Tommy Troy (66), Bubba Chandler (86)
Unranked prospects: Starlyn Caba, Robert Calaz, Hao Yu Lee, Angel
Martinez, Brice Matthews, Victor Mesa, Jr., Myles Naylor, Bryan Ramos,
Drew Romo, Eduardo Tait, Braxton Ashcraft, Michael Burrows, Connor
Cooke, Ty Floyd, Jack Leiter, Blade Tidwell
Here is something you don't see often.
The Flamingos had six ranked prospects last year, and now have four.
None of those six are among the four! Vegas wiped the farm slate clean
and completely replaced the entire lot. Their four top prospects last
year -- Anthony Volpe, Grayson Rodriguez, Bo Naylor, and Bryan Ramos --
all graduated to the big leagues. Their bottom-two prospects -- Drew
Romo and Jack Leiter -- fell out of the ranking. Leiter's fall is
particularly noteworthy, given the hype that accompanied him into
professional baseball. He was ranked #20 in this report in 2022, one
year after he was drafted. After two years of struggles, he's now barely
a blip on the radar.
Horton has now taken over as this
team's top pitching prospect. He had a fantastic pro debut, reaching the
Double-A level and posting an overall BB/K ratio of 27/117 in 88+
innings. Which is remarkable, given that he barely pitched in college.
Schultz is another first-round MLB draft pick from 2022 who also shined
in his pro debut last year. He threw only 27 innings, but impressed with
his size and athleticism, drawing comparisons to Randy Johnson.
Troy was the 12th player selected in
the 2023 MLB draft. He doesn't have one loud tool, but is at least
average in all facets of the game. Chandler was an experimental Ohtani
type of hitter/pitcher hybrid in 2022, but switched full-time to
pitching last year. The experiment seemed to work, as he overcame early
struggles to finish strong at the Double-A level.
The Flamingos have cornered the market
on the Naylor family. Do they all make fools of themselves by rocking
invisible babies after hitting meaningless home runs? Or just the one?
#13
South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Adael
Amador (28), Brady House (52), Justin Crawford (74), Shane Baz (93),
Jordan Beck (110), Cade Cavalli (115), Ronny Mauricio (116), Robert
Gasser (125), Denzel Clarke (128), Lazaro Montes (130)
Unranked prospects: Victor Acosta, Jordan Beck, Ryan Bliss,
Dustin Harris, Dillon Head, Sterlin Thompson, Creed Willems, Nick Yorke,
Tanner Burns, Jose Corniell, Frank Mozzicato
The Sea Cats are proof that having a
great farm system doesn't always lead to success in the BDBL. The 'Cats
have owned a top-10 farm system fourteen times in the 25-year history of
this farm report, but have won just two division titles and just two
winning seasons in that time. Top prospect Amador is an on-base machine
who walks more often than he strikes out, steals a few bases, and
collects a
handful of extra-base hits.
As big as Brady House is, and as
glowing as his scouting reports are, he hasn't hit as many home runs as
you would think. In 149 career games (575 AB), he's hit 19
homers. He owns a decent career batting line of .303/.365/.468, but also
a sub-decent 45/161 BB/K ratio. Crawford is a top-of-the-lineup type of
player who gets on base at a decent clip and steals a ton of bases. Baz
fell from #81 on this list a year ago to #93 after missing the last
season and a half due to Tommy John surgery. He is expected to return
early this season.
The Sea Cats dominate the overall
ranking from #110 to #130. Of that group, keep an eye on Montes. A huge,
left-handed, Cuban refugee who slugged 13 homers in 70 games in his US
debut, has better contact skills than expected, and sucks defensively.
Does that remind you of anyone? Maybe someone from the Darien
organization?
#14
South Loop Furies
Ranked prospects: Pete
Crow-Armstrong (16), Robby Snelling (37), Kevin Alcantara (79)
Unranked prospects: Bryan Acuna, Vaun Brown, Cam Caminiti,
Brennan Davis, Seth Gamble, Vaughn Grissom, Pablo Guerrero, Brady
Harris, Justin-Henry Malloy, Alan Roden, Ralphy Velazquez, Nick Bitsko,
Jackson Ferris, J.R. Ritchie, Landon Sims, Charlee Soto, Yosver Zulueta
Crow-Armstrong's MLB career got off to
a bumpy start when he went 0-for-14 in his MLB debut last year, but he
should be fine in the long run. He's a five-tool player who should
contribute to the Furies fairly quickly. Snelling had a fantastic year
(1.82 ERA in 103+ innings) last year as a 19-year-old pitching at the
Double-A level. Alcantara is a tall (6'6") and skinny (188 lbs) bean
sprout with surprising power, good speed, a strong arm, and decent
bat-to-ball skills.
The unranked group is filled with
relatives of famous MLB players. Acuna is Ronald's brother. Caminiti is
Ken's son. Guerrero is Vlad's son and Vlad Jr.'s brother. I'm told the
Furies organization offers a terrific friends and family discount.
#15
Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Heston
Kjerstad (36), Connor Phillips (70), Ceddanne Rafaela (72), Carson
Whisenhunt (85), Edgar Quero (106), Enrique Bradfield (111), Christian
Scott (117)
Unranked prospects: Rayner Arias, Blake Dunn, Abimelac Ortiz,
Owen Paino, Ben Rice, Maddux Bruns, Joey Cantillo, Chayce McDermott,
Nick Nastrini
Kjerstad is a slow-footed power-hitting
right fielder who doesn't strike out a ton for a player with that
profile. He will likely graduate from this list this year. Phillips got
knocked around in his MLB debut last year (20+ IP, 5 HR, 13 BB, 6.97
ERA), but has the potential to be a mid-rotation asset. Rafaela also
made his MLB debut last year and is likely to stick there based on his
glovework alone. He shines defensively at multiple positions and has
enough of a bat to justify a spot in the lineup. Whisenhunt pitches for
the boring Giants. His best pitch is a change-up that is rated 70 on the
20-80 scale. He managed to reach the Double-A level last year, and is
likely to get a cup of coffee in the big leagues this year.
Jeff Paulson's publicly-stated strategy
in this year's farm draft was to select players that are likely to help
in the immediate future rather than years down the road. To that end,
McDermott has the best chance, I believe, to make an
immediate impact. The 24-year-old owns a career K/9 ratio of 13.0 in the
minor leagues. Granted, that comes with an ugly 5.3 BB/9 rate, but he is
likely to be moved to the bullpen this year, which somehow tends to
lower that BB/9 rate. He could pitch for Baltimore out of the bullpen
and become yet another annoying thorn in the side of Undertakers
opponents next year.
#16
Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Chase
DeLauter (27), Emmanuel Rodriguez (45), James Triatos (90), Daniel
Espino (130)
Unranked prospects: Yiddi Cappe, Cole Carrigg, Ariel Castro, Noah
Franco, Vance Honeycutt, Junior Marin, Bryce Rainer, Alex Clemmey, Hyun-Seok
Jang, Parker Messick, Joey Oakie, Dahian Santos, Mitch Spence, Huascar
Ynoa
A foot injury delayed DeLauter's pro
debut until June of last year, but he made the most of it once he got
there, hitting .355/.417/.528 at three different levels and ending the
year at Double-A. Another left-handed power hitter, Rodriguez, also got
off to a slow start due to an injury. He then posted a .927 OPS from
June 1st through the end of the season. In his 183-game pro career, he's
racked up 35 home runs, 172 walks, and 242 strikeouts.
Stop me if you've read this before.
Triantos got off to a slow start in 2023 due to injury, but finished
strong. He hasn't shown much power yet, and his defensive landing place
is still up in the air, but he looks like he'll end up an everyday
player somewhere on the diamond. Espino didn't get off to a slow start
last year. Instead, he never started at all due to an injury. In
fact, due to injuries, he's only pitched 18+ innings in his entire pro
career. MLB.com still believes in him, though, and ranked him #100.
Of the unranked group, the only two
names I recognize are Honeycutt and Rainer. Both are in the 2024 MLB
draft class. Honeycutt is currently ranked #6 in that class by Baseball
America. Rainer is ranked #19.
#17
Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Junior
Caminero (2), Termarr Johnson (67), Andy Pages (124)
Unranked prospects: Addison Barger, Robert Hassell, Mac Horvath,
Leo Jimenez, Carlos Jorge, Hector Rodriguez, Echedry Vargas, Chase
Burns, David Sandlin, Emiliano Teodo
The 'Dogs fell from #10 a year ago down
to #17 due mostly to the graduation of Taj Bradley to the big leagues
and the decline of Johnson from #31 to #67. Johnson's decline doesn't
make much sense, since he posted an .860 OPS last year with 18 homers
and a decent 101/120 BB/K ratio. Caminero was arguably the greatest
come-from-nowhere breakout prospect of 2023. A year ago on this page, he
was ranked dead-last at #139. Then he went nuts, hitting .324/.384/.591
with 31 homers at two different levels before leapfrogging Triple-A
straight to the big leagues for a seven-game cup of coffee. His elite
bat speed and power carried him all the way to #2 in this year's
ranking.
Of the unranked group, Burns may have
the best shot of becoming a ranked prospect a year from now. He is
currently ranked by Baseball America as the #15 prospect in the 2024
draft. If he makes a big leap this year, he could earn his "I've been
ranked" pin.
#18
Myrtle Beach Hitmen
Ranked prospects: Dylan
Crews (6), A.J. Smith-Shawver (68)
Unranked prospects: Michael Arroyo, Travis Bazzana, Jacob Berry,
Cam Cannarella, Trent Caraway, Yoelin Cespedes, Charlie Condon, Jacob
Gonzalez, Ike Irish, Nick Kurtz, Connor Norby, Ethan Petry, Kristian
Robinson, Zac Veen, Jorbit Vivas, Tommy White, Brody Brecht, Ronan Kopp
Don't let the ranking fool you. The
Hitmen own one of the best farm systems in this league. They own a
virtual monopoly on the 2024 MLB draft. Kurtz (#2), Bazzana (#3), Condon
(#8), and White (#10) are all ranked by Baseball America among the
top-ten in the 2024 draft. Petry, Irish, and Cannarella are all expected
to be among the early first-round picks of the 2025 MLB draft.
Of course, Crews was the jewel of the
2023 MLB draft. He was selected second overall after hitting
.426/.567/.713 for the LSU Tigers. He kept hitting once he advanced to
pro ball, slashing .292/.377/.467 at three different levels, and culminating
in a 20-game trial at Double-A. Smith-Shawver made his brief MLB debut
last year, tossing 25+ innings with respectable (17 H, 11 BB, 20 K)
numbers. He still has some work to do in the bush leagues, but will
likely return to MLB toward the end of this season.
It seems likely that Kurtz, Bazzana,
and Condon will make the rankings a year from now, which means this
franchise will likely return to the top-ten even if Crews graduates to
The Show. Myrtle Beach ranked #1 in this report three years in a row
from 2019-2021. The interesting aspect of that accomplishment is how few
of those prospects have panned out so far. 2019's class (Forrest
Whitley, Jo Adell, MacKenzie Gore, Carter Kieboom, Joey Bart, and Alec
Bohm) have been mostly duds. 2020's class produced Nolan Jones, Tarik
Skubal, and Corbin Carroll, but only Skubal remains with the Hitmen.
2021's class included no new names beyond those listed above. As I wrote
in the intro, having an outstanding farm
system is no guarantee of success.
#19
Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Jasson
Dominguez (30), Sebastian Walcott (62), Druw Jones (88)
Unranked prospects: Luis Baez, Emmanuel Bonilla, Jaison Chourio,
Cam Collier, Konnor Griffin, Brailer Guerrero, Jansel Luis, Javier
Mogollon, Cooper Pratt, Jose Rodriguez, Yophery Rodriguez, Jeremy
Rodriguez, Yunior Severino, Quentin Young, Mason Black, Payton Martin,
Michael Massey
This is a strange place to find the
Niagara Locks farm. Since Mike Ranney took over this franchise in 2010,
the Locks have never ranked this low in this report. Niagara owned a
top-five farm system nine straight years in a row, and ten times in
Ranney's fifteen years at the helm. The Locks farm ranked fourth in this
report a year ago, but after the mammoth trade involving James Wood and Evan Carter, and the MLB
graduation of Jordan Walker, this farm system has been fairly well
gutted.
Dominguez sure has had an interesting
ride up and down this annual ranking. He was Niagara's first draft pick
in the 2019 midyear farm draft. In 2020, before he had even played a
professional game, he was a top-50 prospect (#46). By 2021, he had
become a top-40 prospect (#37). Then the experts collectively decided he
wasn't as good as they had hyped him up to be, and dropped him all the
way to #76 in 2022. Last year, he returned to the top-50 at #47. And now
here he is again in the top-30, fully-redeemed. He will more than likely
graduate from this list by this time next year.
Walcott is one of the many, many, many
international prospects that Ranney has drafted over the years. He was
one of the top-rated players in last year's international pool, and is
projected to be the best player to ever come from the Bahamas. Jones was
the second overall pick in the MLB 2022 draft, is the son of the best
player to ever come from Curacao, and hit just .238/.353/.327 in his pro
debut last year. Despite the disappointing numbers, he was ranked #78 by MLB.com and #81 by Baseball Prospectus.
The unranked group is filled, as usual,
with Latin American players signed from the international draft pool. Of
the fourteen hitters, nine are under the age of eighteen. The old man of
the group is 24-year-old Yunior Severino, who whacked 35 homers last
year at the Double- and Triple-A levels.
#20
Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Colt Keith
(23), Nick Frasso (76), Yu-Min Lin (105), Moises Ballesteros (114), Juan
Brito (130)
Unranked prospects: Dylan Beavers, Josue Briceno, Yeiner
Fernandez, Welbyn Francisca, Eddinson Paulino, Wenceel Perez, Nikau
Pouaka-Grego, Jose Acuna, Mitch Bratt, Aidan Curry, Will Dion, Cory
Lewis, Wen Hui Pan, Luis Perales, Josh Stephan
All five of Akron's ranked prospects
came from the 2023 winter farm draft, which is pretty impressive given
that they had the last pick in that draft. Even more impressive is the
fact that Akron's seventeenth pick in that draft was Bryan Woo,
who is already contributing to the Akron ballclub. Keith (Akron's #1
pick last year) owns a career batting line of .300/.382/.512 in 239
minor league games. After two injury-shortened seasons, he broke out
last year with 27 homers in just 126 games. There is a better than
average chance that he has played his last minor league game.
Frasso (#3) owns a 2.96 ERA in 152
minor league innings, with 191 strikeouts (11.3 K/9). Unfortunately, he
will miss most (or all) of this season after tearing his labrum. Lin
(#7), Ballesteros (#15), and Brito (#2) were all left out of Baseball
America's and MLB.com's ranking, but were ranked #74, #84, and #100,
respectively, by Baseball Prospectus. Lin owns a 11.7 K/9 rate in his
minor league career, and reached Double-A at 19 years old last year.
Ballesteros is a left-hand-hitting catcher who also reached Double-A at
19 years old last year. He has hit for power and also owns an impressive
125/149 BB/K ratio in 920 PAs. Brito (not to be confused with the other
Juan Brito) also owns an impressive BB/K ratio of 187/195, is an on-base
machine, and even hits for some power.
#21
South Philly Gritty
Ranked prospects: Zach
Dezenzo (75), Brayan Rocchio (98), Thayron Liranzo (98), Jacob Melton
(117)
Unranked prospects: Drake Baldwin, Carson Benge, Caleb Bonemer,
Waner Luciano, Braylin Morel, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, Hayden
Birdsong, Drue Hackenberg, Cooper Hjerpe, Shota Imanaga, Jhancarlos
Lara, Carlos Rodriguez
The biggest names on this farm are
ineligible for this ranking, as Japanese pros are traditionally excluded
for some reason. Murakami set a new NPB record with 56 homers in 2022,
and has hit 28 or more homers in each of the past five seasons. Just 23
years old, it is not known when he will arrive in the US. We don't have
to wonder about Imanaga, as he has already signed a contract with the
Cubs. The 29-year-old lefty posted a 2.77 ERA last year, with 188 K's in
159 innings. He is not considered to be a power pitcher, and is
projected to be more of a back-end starter. Okamoto has topped 30 homers
in each of the past six seasons, but I can't find any news about his
desire to play in the US.
None of the four ranked players made it
to all three lists. Dezenzo wasn't ranked by Baseball America or MLB.com,
but was somehow considered to be a top-40 prospect (at #40) by Baseball
Prospectus. His career numbers (.294/.374/.502, 22 HR, 54/143 BB/K in
527 PAs) are decent enough, but he doesn't look like a top-40 prospect
to me.
It seems like Rocchio has been on this
report forever. He finally made it to the big leagues last year and is
expected to stick there. Liranzo hit 24 homers at Low-A last year, with
a .400 OBP, as a catcher. Melton offers both power (23 HR last year) and
speed (46 SB).
#22
Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Luisangel
Acuna (76), Gabriel Gonzalez (107), Chase Petty (125)
Unranked prospects: Luke Adams, Justice Bigbie, Brainer Bonaci,
Chase Davis, Darell Hernaiz, Colin Houck, Jace Laviolette, Roc Riggio,
Daniel Susac, Marco Vargas, Ryan Bergert, Wilkelman Gonzalez, Mike Vasil
It seems like Ronald Acuna's entire
family plays professional baseball. His younger brother wasn't ranked by
Baseball America, but made the top-80 for both MLB.com and Baseball
Prospectus. In fact, no Infidels prospect made BA's ranking. Acuna was
hitting fairly well before he was traded to the Mets in the Max Scherzer
trade. He went into a massive slump after that, calling into question
the wisdom of that trade.
Gonzalez is an excellent contact
hitter, but doesn't have much power or speed, which limits his value as
a corner outfielder. Petty just barely made this ranking, coming in at
#98 on MLB.com's list. He's proven to be a solid, yet unspectacular,
pitching prospect. He doesn't possess any "plus" pitch, but keeps the
ball in the park consistently.
Of the unranked group, the name that
stands out is Laviolette, who is positioned to be one of the first
players called in the 2025 MLB draft. Last year, as a freshman at Texas
A&M, he hit .287/.414/.632 with 21 homers in 64 games.
#23
Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Joey Ortiz
(90)
Unranked prospects: Blaze Alexander, Aeverson Arteaga, Jonatan
Clase, Tyler Gentry, Troy Johnston, Dylan Jorge, Dominic Keegan, Pedro
Leon, Tyler Locklear, Joey Loperfido, Jose A. Rodriguez, Austin Shenton,
Prelander Berroa, Reggie Crawford, Yoniel Curet, Landen Roupp, Joe
Whitman
For the fifth year in a row (and sixth
time in the past seven years), the Bear Country farm system ranks either
last or next-to-last in this report. That is not an easy feat! Only one
Bear Country prospect is ranked in this report, and only one member of
our three-member expert panel included him in their ranking (MLB.com at
#63). Ortiz has posted an .800+ OPS in each of the past three seasons, and
was just traded to the Brewers in that big Corbin Burnes deal. So,
apparently someone likes him.
Aside from Rodriguez (a former
Cowtipper) I've never heard of any of those unranked guys. As everyone
knows, I barely follow the game of baseball. In order to educate myself,
I will now look up a couple of players at random. Yoniel Curet has a
funny name, so I'll look him up first. Apparently, he is a pitcher with
the Tampa Bay organization. He pitched most of last year at the Low-A
level before getting a six-game trial at High-A (in which he mostly
flopped.) In 197 career innings,
he owns an impressive 2.97 ERA and 265 strikeouts. Less impressive is
his 128 walks.
Next up: Joey Loperfido. He is a
24-year-old jack-of-all-trades who owns a .282/.379/.484 career batting
line and made it all the way to Triple-A last year. According to
Baseball America, he is the sixth-best prospect in the Houston Astros
system. Well, that was fun. I look forward to doing it again next year.
#24
Jacksonville Jackalopes
Ranked prospects: Blake
Mitchell (120)
Unranked prospects: Tyler Callihan, Angel Cepeda, Gavin Cross,
Angel Diaz, Jack Hurley, George Lombard, Yohandry Morales, Adolfo
Sanchez, Tanner Schobel, Jake Bennett, Woo Suk Go, D.J. Herz, Gabriel
Hughes, Eli Jerzembeck, Hayden Juenger, Hunter Owen, Chase Shores,
Brandon Sproat, Travis Sykora
The Jackalopes have only one ranked
prospect and he barely made it. Mitchell was ranked #94 by MLB.com and
#96 by Baseball Prospectus. The 19-year-old lefty-hitting catcher was
drafted eighth overall (below slot) in last year's MLB draft. He had a
stellar amateur career in high school and various showcases, but
struggled out of the gates in pro ball, going 5-for-34 (.147) in
thirteen games. He'll probably be fine long-term.
Woo Suk Go was signed by the Padres out
of Japan this winter, joining fellow countryman (and Mulligan) Yuki
Matsui in the San Diego bullpen. Go owns a 3.18 career ERA in Japan,
with a decent strikeout rate of 9.8 and an alarming walk rate of 4.0.
Of that unranked group, the only player
that stands out as having a chance to join the ranked a year from now is
Morales. He was a second round pick in last year's MLB draft, and
managed to hit .349/.423/.494 in his pro debut. He hit .343/.413/.635 in
his college career, with 49 homers in 174 games. I'm surprised he didn't
get some love from at least one of the experts.
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