March, 2006

2006 BDBL Farm Report

One of the most enjoyable aspects of running a BDBL franchise is "discovering" some pimply-faced teenager in the low minor leagues and watching him develop into a low-cost, high-impact player.  Developing a good farm system requires a wide depth of knowledge in the game of baseball, a lot of free time for research and-- more than anything else --a lot of luck.  The question is: How important is it to have a good farm system?

If a team ranks #1 in this survey, does that bode well for the team's future?  Conversely, if a team ranks dead-last, does that mean nothing but doom and gloom?  In order to answer that question, I collected all of the rankings from each of our BDBL farm reports over the past six years.  I then matched those rankings to the average number of wins each team recorded in year+1, year+2, etc., through year+5.  Here are the results:

This graph shows a fairly strong correlation between Farm Report ranking and wins.  The #1 and #2 ranked teams have performed very well, averaging 90 wins over the next six seasons, while the bottom six teams averaged fewer than 80 wins.

If you prefer charts to graphs:

The one outlier, of course, is that teams ranked #18 in this study seem to do the best of anyone, averaging a mind-boggling 95 wins over the next six years.  This outlier is caused mostly by the 2000 Allentown Ridgebacks, who ranked #18 in that year's study, but went on to win 405 games from 2002-2005.  In '02, the Ridgebacks (then known as the "Boise Bastards") farm consisted of guys named Buddy Yen, Carlos Mendez, Carlos Paredes, Corey Thurman and Joseph Delgado.  No, I don't have the foggiest idea who those guys are, either.  But the following season, Tom DiStefano took over, and the Ridgebacks' farm ranking jumped to #4 overnight.

Okay, enough of the intro.  How does your team rank THIS year?  See the chart below.  This year's panel of experts includes John Sickels (whose rankings are double-counted thanks to his chickenshit method of ranking hitters and pitchers separately), Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Deric McKamey (Baseball HQ), Bryan Smith (Baseball Analysts) and RotoAmerica.  I've also added a new column, showing the average ranking per franchise.  For what it's worth, this average corresponds to franchise wins at a 44% rate.

#1 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Jeremy Hermida (2), Alex Gordon (12), Jared Weaver (30), Jeff Clement (33), Jeremy Sowers (33), Justin Upton (36), Adam Miller (54), Mike Pelfrey (58), John Broxton (60), Elvis Andrus (74), Josh Johnson (110), Hunter Pence (110), Chris Nelson (113), Mark Rogers (119), Nick Adenhart (150)
Unranked prospects: Brian Dopirak, Jeff Fiorentino, Franklin Gutierrez, Ryan Harvey, Matt Wieters, Edwin Jackson

It should come as a shock to no one to see the Undertakers at the top of this year's farm report.  This is the sixth time in seven years Los Altos has ranked among the top ten, but surprisingly enough, it is the first time they've ever ranked #1.  Not only do they rank #1, but they completely blow away the competition with 3,626 points overall.

Most of the Undertakers' prospects earned their rankings based on scouting reports rather than actual performance.  Of the Undertakers' top eight prospects, SIX of them have yet to play a full season of professional baseball-- and two of them have yet to play a single INNING of pro ball.  The most controversial of that lot, of course, is Upton, who was famously acquired by the Undertakers in 2003 as a 15-year-old high school sophomore.

Upton ranked as high as #2 overall on both McKamey's and Baseball America's list.  The last high school player to receive this amount of hype before his professional debut was Josh Hamilton, who was ranked the 13th-best prospect in baseball by BBA back in 2000.  But Hamilton had a full season of pro experience under his belt at the time of that ranking.  Ben Grieve, who had 72 games of pro experience at the time, was ranked #10 overall in BBA's 1995 list.

You have to go all the way back to 1994 to find a player ranked among BBA's top ten with no professional experience whatsoever...and that player was Alex Rodriguez.  Talk about having big shoes to fill.  Baseball America's Jim Callis is projecting similar greatness for young Upton, calling him "the next Ken Griffey, Jr."  He has also gone on record predicting that Upton will play in "several all-star games" and that he will "push for a big league job by the end of the year."  Lofty praise for a kid who has yet to face a single professional pitch.

#2 Manchester Irish Rebels
Ranked prospects: Jarrod Saltalamacchia (17), Deric Barton (21), Matt Cain (22), Nick Markakis (24), Scott Elbert (52), Cole Hamels (59), Andrew McCutchen (65), Adam Loewen (75), Eric Campbell (159)
Unranked prospects: John Drennan, C.J. Henry, Austin Jackson, Jed Lowrie, Henry Sanchez, Jack McGee

What do eight of Manchester's nine ranked prospects have in common?  Yep, they're all first-round draft picks.  Jim Doyle's time-tested farm-building strategy of running his finger down the list of first-round picks has resulted in a #2 ranking in this survey.  It is an ingenious strategy, really.  Just think of all the time the rest of us waste pouring over stats and scouting reports.  Doyle figures that MLB GM's have already done all that work, so why not just rely on their judgment?  Hard to argue, given the results.  This is the sixth year in a row that the Irish Rebels have improved their farm ranking-- the only team in the BDBL to improve its farm each and every year.

Few teams own a more impressive array of southpaws than Manchester (except possibly the Jamboree.)  In addition to Elbert, Everts, Hamels and Loewen, the Irish Rebels also have young lefties Scott Kazmir and Jeff Francis on the active roster (both still in their option years.)

With three top-25 hitting prospects set to join Miguel Cabrera on the big club, Manchester's streak of six straight 90-loss seasons may soon come to an end.

#3 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Francisco Liriano (4), Kendry Morales (31), John Danks (43), Homer Bailey (43), Jason Hirsch (60), Mark Pawalek (67), Josh Williingham (80), Matt Kemp (84), Merkin Valdez (101), Ricky Romero (102), Paul Maholm (113), Travis Bowyer (121), Matt Moses (130), Cliff Pennington (141), Corey Hart (148)
Unranked prospects: Larry Broadway, Dan Ortmeier, Bill Bray, Chris Britton, Tyler Clippard

This is rarified air for this franchise, which has never ranked higher than #12 in this survey.  Up until last year, the Jamboree never ranked higher than 20th.  What happened?  Well, for starters, Liriano went from a completely unknown and unranked prospect a year ago to the #4 prospect in baseball.  Matt Clemm saw something in this "C+" prospect (according to Sickels) and grabbed him with the #1 pick of the 2005 farm draft.

Clemm also employed a bit of the Jim Doyle Strategy, running his finger down the list of first-round selections to come up with prepster arms Danks, Bailey and Pawalek, and collegians Romero and Pennington.  Last year's Morales trade also helped the Bear Country farm quite a bit.

[Editor's note: Since I first wrote this review of the Bear Country farm, they've added #45 prospect Edison Volquez via trade.  Adding Volquez would give the Jamboree 2,792 points overall, which would put them ahead of Manchester for #2 on this list.]

#4 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Brandon Wood (3), Andy LaRoche (20), Anthony Reyes (25), Carlos Gonzalez (47), Adam Jones (51), Jeff Mathis (70), Jose Tabata (89), Rich Hill (102), Ryan Sweeney (136), Shane Lindsay (137), Brad Snyder (142) and Chris Volstad (150)
Unranked prospects: Chris Lubanski, Brian Bannister, Dan Meyer, Greg Miller

Remember what I wrote about luck being the most important element of developing a good farm system?  A year ago, Brandon Wood was ranked #140 in this survey.  He was ranked by only one of our four experts (BBA), who ranked him #83.  With minor league totals of .263/.331/.426, and 16 homers and 180 strikeouts in 718 at-bats, it was easy to see why.  Yet here we are a year later, and Wood is the #3 prospect in baseball.  Go figure.

Last year, this team's #1 and #2 prospects were Meyer (#22 overall) and Gavin Floyd (#25.)  But despite the horrendous seasons by those two (who are now unranked), the graduation of Zach Duke to the big leagues, and the career-threatening injury to Miller, the 'Dogs actually rose a spot in the survey this season thanks to the emergence of Wood and the additions of LaRoche, Jones and Hill via trade.

#5 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Lastings Milledge (11), Jon Lester (28), Yusmeiro Petit (31), Justin Huber (55), Chuck James (68), Ian Kinsler (77), Josh Barfield (82), Scott Baker (90), Wes Bankston (95), Brent Clevlen (126)
Unranked prospects: Etanislao Abreu, Reid Brignac, Brad Harman, Brandon Jones, Dave Krynzel, Fernando Martinez, Eric Reed, Matt Capps, Will Inman, Nick Pesco

Three years ago, Tony DeCastro traded middle reliever Steve Reed to the Salem Cowtippers for a high school prospect who had yet to take the field as a professional.  Three years later, Lastings Milledge is the #11 prospect in baseball.  Milledge was ranked as high as #7 (by RotoAmerica) and made two top-ten lists (BBA being the other.)  He was ranked among the top 20 by all six experts, although noted prospect prognosticators Tom DiStefano and Anthony Peburn failed to rank him among their top 50.

Not only has Milledge's stock risen over the past year, but Lester has risen from the unranked prospects list to #28 overall.  Meanwhile, the rankings for Petit, Huber, Barfield and Baker have barely budged from where they were a year ago.

#6 Villanova Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Chad Billingsley (7), Andy Marte (9), Gio Gonzalez (57), Dustin McGowan (63), Troy Patton (64), Andre Ethier (90), Anthony Swarzak (102), Kevin Melillo (109)
Unranked prospects: Chris Iannetta, Matt Tuiasosopo, Dana Eveland, James Houser, Adam Wainwright

Last year's #1 team drops five spots after the graduations of Casey Kotchman, Jeremy Reed, Nick Swisher, Jesse Crain, Joe Blanton, Curtis Granderson and Brian McCann.  To "lose" those seven players and still have the #6-ranked farm system speaks volumes about this franchise's core of young players.

This year's ranking is heavily weighted toward their two top-ten prospects, Billingsley and Marte.  Billingsley rose in the rankings from #14 last year, while Marte dropped from #3 last season.  There is little argument that Billingsley is among the top pitching prospects in the game, while Marte is among the top hitting prospects.  Among pitchers only, Billingsley was ranked #2 by BBA, #4 by Sickels, #3 by Smith, #1 by McKamey, #2 by RotoAmerica, and #5 by BBP.  Among hitters, Marte was ranked #10 by BBA, #5 by Sickels, #7 by Smith, #8 by McKamey, #20 by RotoAmerica and #6 by BBP.

Add Dontrelle Willis, Rich Harden, Neal Cotts, Chris Snyder and Garrett Atkins, and the Mustangs have more 26-and-under talent than any other team in BDBL history.  It will be an interesting case study to see how successful this team will be going forward.

#7 Corona Confederates
Ranked prospects: Prince Fielder (5), Howie Kendrick (13), Ryan Braun (42), Marcus Sanders (79), Jeff Niemann (94), Brandon Snyder (97), Jose Capellan (98), Jay Bruce (134)
Unranked prospects: Jeff Baker, Shin-Soo Choo, Brendan Harris, Cody Johnson, Vince Sinisi, Brian Snyder, Taylor Teagarden, Abe Alvarez, Josh Banks, Chris Bootcheck, Clint Nageotte

What a shock to see this franchise in the top ten, huh?  Okay, not really.  In fact, this is the lowest ranking for this franchise EVER.  It really speaks volumes about Ed McGowan's skills as a GM that he was able to trade for this team's top two prospects this winter while maintaining a ballclub that is favored to win the division.

Kendrick's ranking among the top 15 is a bit controversial, since neither DiStefano nor Peburn ranked him among their top 50 prospects.  Kendrick ranked as high as #5 (on BBP's and RotoAmerica's lists) and as low as #35 (on Smith's list) among our panel of experts.

#8 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Carlos Quentin (14), Ian Stewart (15), Edison Volquez (45), Kenji Jojima (78), Cameron Maybin (81), Luke Hochevar (93), Chris Ray (117), Garrett Mock (132)
Unranked prospects: Alberto Callaspo, Gabe Gross, Chase Headley, Matt LaPorta, Todd Linden, Chris Marrero, Jeremy Accardo, Luke Hochevar, Hirotoshi Ishii, Ian Kennedy, Aaron Rakers, Chris Resop, Max Scherzer, Koji Uehara

This is the first year since 2002 the Cowtippers don't own one of the top ten prospects in baseball.  Of course, it doesn't help when their top prospect, B.J. Upton, is stuck in prospect purgatory, having played a full season at Triple-A, yet not qualifying as a prospect.  Salem's second-best prospect, Ian Stewart, suffered an injury-plagued first half that dragged down his overall numbers.  As a result, his overall ranking dropped from #4 to #15.  Kenji Jojima isn't considered to be a prospect by most outlets.  He wasn't even ranked by Smith, Sickels or RotoAmerica.  Hochevar still hasn't signed, so he wasn't ranked by anyone other than Sickels (who ranked him as the 14th best pitching prospect in baseball.)  And Kennedy, LaPorta, Uehara, Ishii, Marrero and Scherzer aren't eligible for these rankings, either.

The Cowtippers seem to come up with top ten prospects each and every year, and it's a good bet they'll do so again next year.  Salem has cornered the market on the 2006 MLB amateur draft, which should help their ranking next year.  And if Stewart bounces back, and Maybin performs well in his pro debut, both players would seem to be good candidates for next year's top ten.

#9 Wapakoneta Hippos
Ranked prospects: Joel Zumaya (26), Jon Papelbon (35), Erick Aybar (40), Dustin Nippert (66), Hayden Penn (71), Andrew Lerew (#96), James Loney (98), Colby Rasmus (107), Glen Perkins (#152), Tom Gorzelanny (158)
Unranked prospects: Trevor Crowe, Hernan Iribarren, Jeff Allison, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jesse Litsch, Matt McCormick, Andrew Miller, Elizardo Ramirez

Two years ago, the Hippos traded Benji Molina to the Cowtippers in exchange for their present-day #1 prospect, Zumaya.  It is little trades like this, involving small-impact free-agents-to-be, that often turn out to be highly favorable for non-contending teams.  For these teams, there is little to lose and lots to gain.

There is some disagreement over the value of a couple of Wapakoneta's prospects among our panel of experts.  Papelbon is the #9-ranked pitcher on Sickels' list, but he is ranked no higher than #22 on any of our other experts' lists.  Aybar ranks #20 on McKamey's list, but doesn't even appear on Smith's top-75 list.

Wapakoneta's farm rose ten spots in this survey over the past year-- the biggest jump in the league.

#10 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Felix Pie (23), Conor Jackson (27), Dustin Pedroia (38), Donald Veal (126), Joaquin Arias (155)
Unranked prospects: Bryan Anderson, Joaquin Arias, Joe Borchard, Nick Hundley, Ryan Ludwick, John Mayberry, Jr., Sergio Santos, Drew Stubbs, Kurt Suzuki, Mike Bowden, Chris Seddon, Sean Tracey

The Black Sox farm is full of controversial players.  Pie ranked as high as #19 on Smith's list, but ranked just #48 on McKamey's list, and didn't appear on either my or Peburn's top-50 lists.  Jackson ranked as high as #15 on McKamey's list (and #10 on my list), but didn't even appear on BBP's top 50 list.  And Pedroia was ranked #42-#77 by five of our six "experts," but ranked #11 on BBP's list.

Despite trading Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Jeff Mathis, Andy LaRoche, Rich Hill and Adam Jones over the past six months, the Black Sox farm system is still ranked among the top ten in the BDBL, and that's a hell of an accomplishment.

#11 Southern Cal Slyme
Ranked prospects: Ryan Zimmerman (10), Anibal Sanchez (37), Hanley Ramirez (50), Blake DeWitt (86), Carlos Gomez (153)
Unranked prospects: Robert Andino, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jeff Larish, Dioner Navarro, Colin Balester, Trevor Bell, Joey Devine, Christian Garcia, Phil Humber, Beau Jones, Maels Rodriguez

Every once in a while, a farm team comes along where the unranked players look more attractive than the ranked players.  I think the Slyme fit into that category.  (Oddly enough, I said the exact same thing last year.)  Zimmerman hit a grand total of seven home runs in his collegiate career, so his ranking as the 10th best prospect in baseball is more than a bit dubious.  Sanchez still has a lot to prove at the upper levels, and Ramirez took a giant step backward this past season.

On the other hand, Ellsbury, Navarro, Devine, Garcia and Humber all look very promising to me.  It wouldn't surprise me to see all five of those players in the top 100 next year.  Last year, I predicted Ramirez would fall in the ranking, and Humber, DeWitt and Francisco Hernandez would rise.  Ramirez fell from #17 to #50, and DeWitt joined the top 100, but Humber and Hernandez remain unranked.

#12 Akron R�che
Ranked prospects: Stephen Drew (6), Justin Verlander (8), Jason Kubel (88), Asdrubal Cabrera (139), Jeff Bianchi (153)
Unranked prospects: Jake Blalock, Cory Dunlap, Mitch Maier, Cody Ross, Angel Salome, Matt Whitney, Steven Andrade, J.D. Martin, Shairon Martis, Michael Megrew, Manny Parra, Alexander Smit

What do Akron's top two prospects have in common?  They are both former Cowtippers.  Just a little trivia to get you through the day.

Verlander is the top ranked pitcher on Sickels' list, which puts him in the same company as Felix Hernandez, Zach Greinke, Jesse Foppert, Josh Beckett, Ryan Anderson and Rick Ankiel.  A mixed bag, to be sure, but I like Verlander's odds of success.

Bianchi was ranked on only one list (#92 by McKamey), yet is ranked #35 by DiStefano, who also happened to predict that Jhonny Peralta would turn into Miguel Tejada overnight.  So keep your eye on Bianchi!

#13 Allentown Ridgebacks
Ranked prospects: Billy Butler (19), Scott Olsen (29), George Kottaras (108), Elijah Dukes (113), Ronny Cedeno (157)
Unranked prospects: Travis Denker, Ryan Garko, Greg Halman, Eduardo Nunez, Richie Robnett, Michael Saunders, Ronald Bay, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Haigwood, Andrew Sonnastine, Jermaine Van Buren

The Ridgebacks farm rose twelve places in the rankings last year.  This year, they've fallen eleven spots.  Two words describe why this has occurred: King Felix.  Hernandez rose from obscurity last year and was ranked the #1 prospect in baseball, giving Allentown a boost in the farm report.  Now that he has graduated to the big leagues, Allentown is back down to where they were.

Interestingly, Butler (at #3) is ranked much higher on Tom's own prospect list than he is ranked anywhere else, yet Olsen (#50) is ranked much lower on Tom's list than anywhere else.  Tom also ranks Dukes as the #26 prospect in the game, yet he ranks no higher than #53 (Smith) by anyone else, and appears on just two of our six lists.

Of the unranked players, Denker was famously ranked as the #5 prospect in baseball by Baseball Notebook, right before its author took his ball and went home.  And Bay has been compared by Tom to Edison Volquez.  Well, they're both skinny, I'll give him that.

#14 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Joel Guzman (16), Thomas Diamond (53), Fernando Cabrera (72), Angel Guzman (144), Miguel Montero (149)
Unranked prospects: Ambiorex Concepcion, Brad Nelson, David Aardsma, Boof Bonser, Sean Gallagher, Juan Mateo, Dustin Moseley

Last year, I marveled at the fact that the Sphinx still had relics left over from the Zigmund administration on their farm roster.  I practically begged Scott Romonosky to cut some of these non-prospects loose and free up those roster spots for some real prospects.  It was sound advice...or at least, I thought so at the time.  Unfortunately, two of the WORS I mentioned were Bobby Jenks and Lance Niekro.  Who knew?  Hell, even the Angels got tired of waiting for Jenks and released him outright!

This year, I can't help but think that a little more pruning needs to be done on this farm club.  I mean, Brad Nelson, Boof Bonser and Dustin Moseley were decent prospects about five years ago, but they aren't exactly burning up the Baseball America hot list anymore.  Of course, now that I've said that, Bonser will turn into Eric Gagne overnight, and Nelson will become a valuable low-cost platoon player.  You're welcome, Scott.

#15 Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Delmon Young (1), Cesar Carillo (69), Eric Duncan (84)
Unranked prospects: Wladimir Balentien, Tim Hummel, Jeff Keppinger, Brandon Larson, Matt Blank, Lance Broadway, Adrian Hernandez, Zach Jackson, Royce Ring, Dennis Sarfate, Matt Smith, Taylor Tankersley, Billy Traber

You know your farm system is really, really bad when you own the #1 prospect in baseball and your farm team still ranks 15th out of 24 teams.  In the past six years, the team with the #1 prospect in baseball ranked #4, #1, #1, #1, #5 and #4 in this survey.  And to think, Johnny Bo put me through hell when I offered him Young last year.

The same advice I've given to Great Lakes applies to Las Vegas as well.  This farm club is long overdue for a little pruning of dead wood.  I mean...Tim Hummel?  Brandon Larson?  Matt Blank?  Adrian Hernandez?  Matt Smith?  Billy Traber?  It seems like it's been decades since these guys were considered "prospects."  There are over 1,000 players listed in McKamey's Minor League Baseball Analyst, and only one of those six players (Smith) appears in that book.  The average age of those six "prospects" is 28.5!  And Hernandez hasn't pitched professionally since May of 2004!!

I mean, come on.  How much time and effort does it take to keep on top of your own players and ensure that-- at the very least --they're still playing ball?

#16 Marlboro Hammerheads
Ranked prospects: Phil Hughes (41), Craig Hansen (46), Fernando Nieve (126), Michael Aubrey (131), Greg Golson (147)
Unranked prospects: Jason Botts, Brent Colamarino, Wes Hodges, Scott Moore, Ronny Paulino, Denard Span, Robert Valido, Daniel Bard, Francisco Cruceta, Manny Delcarmen, Armando Galarraga, Scott Mathieson, Justin Orenduff, Robert Stock

The Marlboro farm system seems to exist for the sole purpose of providing trade bait for Sharky.  Marlboro hasn't produced a full-time player from their farm that has actually played at least one season in a Hammerheads uniform since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 (and he only stuck around for one season.)  As often as Sharky rags on the Yankees, he runs his team in a very similar way to Steinbrenner, doesn't he?  Is it sheer coincidence that Marlboro's top prospect is a Yankee?

Hughes' career has only two possible paths.  He will either be an elite ace or an oft-injured flop.  The chances of him becoming a serviceable #4 innings-eating starter or middle reliever are just about nil.  As much as I'd like to see him become an elite ace from a Yankee fan's perspective, I can't help but think that he's a torn labrum away from becoming a non-entity.

#17 New Hope Badgers
Ranked prospects: Brian Anderson (48), Javi Herrera (62), Bobby Jenks (76), Jimmy Barthmaier (105), Ben Johnson (143)
Unranked prospects: Melky Cabrera, Chris Denorfia, Charlie Fermaint, Tony Giarratano, Travis Hansen, Anderson Hernandez, Michael Hollimon, Cesar Nicholas, Danny Putnam, Ryan Raburn, Kelly Shoppach, J.B. Tucker, Travis Blackley, Shaun Marcum, Sean Marshall, Scott Mitchinson, Kevin Slowey, Jordan Tata

The Badgers rose three spots in the ranking this year, but that may be a function of other farm systems declining rather than the Badgers' farm system improving.  None of New Hope's prospects are ranked among the top 50 by myself, Tom or Anthony, yet Anderson ranks among the top 40 by Smith, BBP and RotoAmerica, and Herrera is ranked among the top 75 by five out of the six experts (all but BBP.)

The appearance of Jenks in this ranking seems strange, both because he was such an integral part of the World Champion White Sox team last year that he doesn't seem like a "prospect" anymore, and because he compiled an ERA of 10.71 in 2004 before he was released by the Angels.

It's hard to envision any of the unranked prospects leaping into the realm of the ranked within the next year, but of the group, I'd say Putnam has the best shot.

#18 Nashville Funkadelic
Ranked prospects: Chris Young (18), Eddy Martinez-Esteve (72), Yunel Escobar (138), Michael Bourn (146)
Unranked prospects: Rajai Davis, Chin-Lung Hu, Akinori Iwamura, Justin Leone, Jason Stokes, Fausto Carmona, Andrew Good, Mike Hinckley, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Bubba Nelson, David Price, George Sherrill, Alay Soler

Unfortunately for the Funk, three of this team's best prospects are not eligible for this study, so the team ranking suffers.  Unless his hefty workload finally catches up to him, Matsuzaka will be an instant ace once he hits the U.S. (which probably won't be until the 2009 BDBL season.)  Iwamura would also make an instant impact, though it is unclear how much of an impact that will be given his lack of plate discipline (319 K's the past two seasons.)  And Price is considered to be among the top players in the 2007 MLB amateur draft.

Young's acquisition this past winter was a steal, but it barely caused a ripple in the BDBL press pool.  Lest anyone forget, Nashville's 11th-ranked farm system last year included the eventual NL Rookie of the Year (Ryan Howard) and the guy who probably should have won the AL ROY (Tad Iguchi.)

#19 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Russ Martin (39), Troy Tulowitzki (56), Ray Liotta (110), Ryan Shealy (122)
Unranked prospects: Mike Costanzo, Josh Fields, Tyler Greene, John Jaso, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Shane Robinson, Jeff Salazar, Dan Uggla, Jeff Bajenaru, Jorge DePaula, Kyle Drabek, Sean Henn

What's this?  The Cleveland Rocks farm system in the top 20??  Is this the end of days??

For years, Mike Stein thumbed his nose at the notion of filling farm slots with prospects with no major league experience.  But a couple of years ago, Stein's farm-building philosophy seemed to do a complete 180-degree reversal, and he began stockpiling players with no professional experience whatsoever.  In the '05 farm draft, he selected high schoolers Zach Putnam and Justin Bristow, collegians Greene and Tulowitzki, and even a Japanese player, Kosuke Fukudome.  This year, he repeated the strategy, scooping up college player Robinson and prepster Drabek in the farm draft.

This stunning reversal has resulted in an era where Mike Stein actually crows about his prospects on the message board.  What a world.

#20 Sylmar Padawans
Ranked prospects: Neil Walker (49), Santiago Casilla (a.k.a. Jairo Garcia) (87), Chuck Tiffany (122), Jason Hammel (145)
Unranked prospects: Matt Bush, Michael Durant, Miguel Perez, Luke Scott, Jose Arrendondo, Scott Atchison, Sean Burnett, Richie Gardner, Brandon League, Macay McBride, Vince Perkins, Chaz Roe, Jonathan Sanchez, Chuck Tiffany, Jake Woods

It has been John Duel's stated philosophy that farm building begins and ends on the mound.  And as you can see, the Padawans farm consists mostly of men who make their living hurling the horsehide.  The problem with pitching, of course, is that you have to draft so many of them just to get one decent one.

Last year's #1 prospect, Brandon McCarthy, has turned out okay so far.  But Gardner (ranked #55 last year) and League (#61) have fallen out of the rankings, and guys like Burnett (#50 two years ago), Perkins, McBride (#71 in '04) and Tiffany have yet to establish themselves.

Of course, this team's best hitting prospect from last year, Howie Kendrick, was traded last winter.  That leaves Walker as the lone face of the Padawan lineup's future.  Maybe someone should tell John that pitching is only half the game.

#21 Atlanta Fire Ants
Ranked prospects: Mike Jacobs (118), Wade Davis (129), Ricky Nolasco (133), Gaby Hernandez (140)
Unranked prospects: Lorenzo Cain, Koby Clemens, Paul McAnulty, Christopher McConnell, Brandon Moss, Xavier Paul, Guillermo Quiroz, Brandon Sing, Delwyn Young, Bryan Bullington, Daniel Griffin, Adam Harben, Jair Jurrjens

Atlanta's top prospect already pulls in a $3 million salary.  That's problem #1.

The other problem is that, since the graduations of Jeff Francoeur and Kyle Davies to the major leagues, along with the declines of Quiroz and Moss, the Fire Ants don't have any top 100 prospects anymore.  That's just sad.  And we still have three more teams to go!

All is not hopeless here, though.  Our own Tom DiStefano has had quite a bit of success with young pitching through the years (Roy Oswalt and Felix Hernandez being his prize pupils), and he foresees greatness in two of Atlanta's pitchers: Davis (ranked #40 by Tom) and Hernandez (ranked #11.)  Our panel of experts wasn't nearly as high on the two as Tom.  Davis appeared on just one of the six lists (#49 on Sickels' pitchers-only list), and Hernandez appeared on just one list as well (#68 on Smith's list.)  Hopefully, for Atlanta's sake, Tom knows something these other experts don't.

#22 Silicon Valley CyberSox
Ranked prospects: Eric Hurley (83), David Purcey (116)
Unranked prospects: Travis Buck, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Einertson, Josh Flores, John-Ford Griffin, Koyie Hill, Travis Ishikawa, Gerald Laird, Craig Breslow, J. Brent Cox, J.D. Durbin, Ben Hendrickson, Casey Janssen, Jacob Marceaux, Kyle McCullough, John Van Benschoten, Jordan Walden

No team has fallen farther in the rankings this year than Silicon Valley, who ranked #8 last year.  Since that time, SVC's top two prospects (Dallas McPherson and Huston Street) both graduated to the major leagues (with Street winning a Rookie of the Year trophy.)  Unfortunately for Silicon Valley fans, no one has stepped up to take their place.

Hurley is viewed favorably by Sickels, who ranked him as the 27th-best pitching prospect in the game, ahead of such notables as Homer Bailey, Edison Volquez, Gio Gonzalez, Mark Pawelek, John Danks, Thomas Diamond and Dustin Nippert.

#23 New Milford Blazers
Ranked prospects: Nolan Reimold (92), Eric Patterson (155)
Unranked prospects: Jose Bautista, Val Majewski, John Matulia, Max Ramirez, Jamal Strong, B.J. Szymanski, Yorman Bazardo, Dallas Braden, Mike Burns, Jorge Campillo, Luis Cota, Brandon Erbe, Scott Feldman, Yovanni Gallardo, Mike Gosling, Hong-Chi Kuo, Chris Lambert, Tommy Mendoza, Jae-Kuk Ryu, Joe Saunders, Aaron Thompson, Travis Wood

One of the obstacles New Milford faces on their road to the World Series is a lack of trade bait needed to acquire a mid-season boost.  That deficiency is reflected here with a #23 ranking.  Despite all the crowing by the Blazers front office, our panel of experts saw little to get excited about on the New Milford farm.  Reimold (ranked #36 by Peburn) was ranked by just half of our experts, and no higher than #54 (McKamey.)  Patterson was ranked by only Baseball America (#93.)  And Gallardo (#48 by Peburn) and Wood (#25) weren't ranked by anyone (except Tom, who ranked Wood #22 on his list.)

The Blazers farm has now ranked among the bottom three for two years in a row.  Whether or not they make it three depends on if DiStefano and Peburn are right about Wood, and if all of Peburn's crowing over Reimold, Wood, Gallardo and Ramirez is justified.

#24 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Chris Snelling (122)
Unranked prospects: Mike Carp, Eddy Garabito, Freddy Lewis, Donnie Murphy, Sean Rodriguez, Nate Schierholtz, Curtis Thigpen, Joey Votto, Phil Dumatrait, Shawn Hill, Thomas Mastny, Renyel Pinto, Darrell Rasner, Francisco Rosario, Chin-Hui Tsao, Enmanuel Ulloa

It's a sad state of affairs when Chris Snelling is your #1 prospect.  Trust me, I know.  If not for a bump in 2004, Ravenswood's farm ranking has declined each and every year of this study.  That's no easy feat.

If you're looking for bright spots, some people believe that Rodriguez (who was ranked #45 on Tom's list) could be this year's Brandon Wood, and rise from obscurity to stardom.  And Carp was ranked as the 9th best prospect in baseball on Baseball Notebook's ridiculously controversial list.  In fact, Carp is pretty much the poster boy for Baseball Notebook's reputation, so a lot is riding on his 2006 performance.

There isn't much left to comment about here, but I'm sure that will be fixed once Johan is dealt away.