March, 2008
2008 BDBL
Farm Report
You
all know the drill by now, so let's get right to it. This year's
panel of experts includes Baseball Prospectus, MinorLeagueBaseball.com,
Baseball HQ, Keith Law, John Sickels and Baseball America. It does
not -- I repeat, not -- include Anthony Peburn.
First, the totals; then, the snarky
commentary:
|
|
Total Pts |
2008 Rank |
2007 Rank |
2006 Rank |
2005 Rank |
2004 Rank |
2003 Rank |
2002 Rank |
2001 Rank |
2000 Rank |
Avg Rank |
|
MAR |
3588 |
1 |
3 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
7 |
8 |
15 |
10 |
10.7 |
|
LAU |
2935 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
19 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
4.8 |
|
SAL |
2447 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
1 |
10 |
7 |
1 |
5.6 |
|
ATL |
1966 |
4 |
10 |
21 |
10 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
20 |
24 |
14.6 |
|
STL |
1948 |
5 |
11 |
9 |
19 |
10 |
23 |
17 |
12 |
19 |
13.9 |
|
SCS |
1926 |
6 |
12 |
5 |
9 |
13 |
2 |
3 |
10 |
17 |
8.6 |
|
NMB |
1786 |
7 |
15 |
23 |
22 |
15 |
14 |
5 |
1 |
3 |
11.7 |
|
AKR |
1427 |
8 |
23 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
15 |
13 |
2 |
9 |
13.4 |
|
KAN |
1338 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
11 |
16 |
11 |
4 |
7.6 |
|
LVF |
1236 |
10 |
14 |
15 |
21 |
17 |
13 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
16.8 |
|
COR |
1192 |
11 |
24 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
7.6 |
|
CHI |
1187 |
12 |
2 |
10 |
14 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
7.3 |
|
MAN |
939 |
13 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
16 |
22 |
10.1 |
|
SCA |
846 |
14 |
16 |
11 |
15 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
14 |
15 |
12.6 |
|
VIL |
775 |
15 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
18 |
18 |
8 |
9.2 |
|
ALN |
673 |
16 |
6 |
13 |
4 |
16 |
12 |
9 |
4 |
18 |
10.9 |
|
NAS |
602 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
11 |
23 |
24 |
6 |
9 |
23 |
16.4 |
|
SYL |
598 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
13 |
20 |
4 |
22 |
19 |
14 |
16.6 |
|
RAV |
485 |
19 |
22 |
24 |
23 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
13 |
5 |
17.8 |
|
CLE |
351 |
20 |
13 |
19 |
24 |
24 |
21 |
24 |
24 |
20 |
21.0 |
|
NHB |
245 |
21 |
20 |
17 |
20 |
18 |
6 |
14 |
17 |
11 |
16.0 |
|
SAB |
195 |
22 |
18 |
22 |
8 |
3 |
18 |
15 |
5 |
13 |
13.8 |
|
BCJ |
191 |
23 |
9 |
3 |
12 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
21 |
17.1 |
|
GLS |
25 |
24 |
21 |
14 |
16 |
9 |
16 |
19 |
21 |
6 |
16.2 |
#1 Marlboro Hammerheads
Ranked prospects: Franklin
Morales (10), Andrew McCutchen (12), Joey Votto (23), Mike Moustakas
(25), Jeff Clement (31), Eric Hurley (36), Carlos Triunfel (38), Jarrod
Parker (42), Carlos Gomez (68), Jeremy Jeffress (85), Alcides Escobar
(100), Felipe Paulino (118), Chorye Spoone (125)
Unranked prospects: Brandon Crawford, Aaron Crow, Tyson Ross,
Yuki Saito, Kenta Suda
Sharky took all of last year off to
build up his ballclub for some future championship run, and spent most
of this winter hording prospects. The result is his first
appearance at the top of this list. Not only do the Hammerheads
top this list, but they top it by a wide margin, as the next team trails
by a whopping 653 points. That 22% difference is by no means a
record for this annual survey (the '06 Undertakers led the #2 team by
more than 36%), but it is impressive nonetheless. Also impressive
is the mixture of pitchers and hitters, and prospects with immediate
potential impact versus long-term value. Morales, Votto, McCutchen,
Clement, Hurley and Gomez should all graduate to the big leagues this
season, and several of that group could play major roles for the '09
Hammerheads. And the next wave of youngsters (Moustakas, Triunfel
and Parker) looks very promising as well.
#2 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Matt
Wieters (11), Nick Adenhart (21), Adam Miller (28), Elvis Andrus (30),
Chris Marrero (33), Jason Heyward (43), Chin-Lung Hu (56), Jordan Walden
(78), Casey Weathers (89), Bryan Anderson (91), Jonathan Meloan (94)
Unranked prospects: Harold Martinez, Brandon Erbe, Matt Harvey,
Brian Matusz, Juan Morillo
The Los Altos prospects factory just
keeps cranking them out. For the fourth year in
a row, the Undertakers' farm system ranks among the top two, and it is
the sixth time this organization has ranked among the top three in the
nine years I've been doing this. Los Altos ranked #1 here a year
ago, and despite losing Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Mike Pelfrey, Matt
Garza and Hunter Pence to graduation, they've hardly skipped a beat.
That's because Paulson's focus on drafting amateur talent always
replenishes the farm system with new blood. Weiters and Heyward,
for example, went from amateurs to top-50 prospects, all in one year.
And a year from now, Martinez and Matusz will undoubtedly do the same,
keeping the Undertakers at the top of this list. It has been such
an effective and successful strategy for this organization for so many
years, it makes one wonder why more teams don't do the same.
#3 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Jay Bruce
(1), Cameron Maybin (7), Rick Porcello (16), Josh Vitters (35), Taylor
Teagarden (52), Luke Hochevar (62), Gorkys Hernandez (100)
Unranked prospects: Yonder Alonso, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Coghlan,
Trevor Crowe, Jordan Danks, Eric Hosmer, Edward Salcedo, Dellin Betances,
Gerrit Cole, Edward Mujica, Ross Ohlendorf, Edwar Ramirez, Cole St.
Clair
Historically, the Cowtippers
organization has been outshined in this survey by only the Undertakers.
And historically, they have done so by sporting a top-heavy farm system
that includes one or two top-ten prospects, followed by a handful of
top-100's. This year is no different. Bruce is the first
Cowtipper to rank #1 in this study since Mark Teixeira in 2003.
And with Bruce and Maybin, this is the 11th and 12th time the Cowtippers
have owned one of the top ten prospects in baseball. Only Keith
Law's #2 ranking kept Bruce from being the first consensus #1 prospect
in baseball since Joe Mauer. Despite all the naysayers, Maybin
dropped only one spot in the overall ranking since last year, but
Hochevar fell all the way to #62 from a ranking of #26 a year ago.
Next year, look for Alvarez to possibly become the 13th top-ten prospect
in Salem history (if he can stay healthy), with Alonso and possibly Hosmer joining him in the top
50.
#4 Atlanta Fire Ants
Ranked prospects: Clay
Buchholz (3), Wade Davis (14), Ross Detwiler (34), Ian Stewart (58),
Jair Jurrjens (74), Jeremy Hellickson (83), Ryan Kalish (107), Jeff
Niemann (125), Gaby Hernandez (130)
Unranked prospects: Tim Beckham, Lorenzo Cain, Blake DeWitt, Will
Middlebrooks, Xavier Paul, Danny Richar, Delwyn Young, Joey Devine,
Jeffrey Locke, Jon Niese, Oswaldo Sosa, Sean West
This is the highest ranking the Atlanta
franchise has ever achieved in this survey. Does this mean
good times are ahead for Fire Ants fans? Well, according to my
little study two years ago, possibly. However, according to
this other study I did, possibly not.
The problem is that all three of the Atlanta prospects ranked among the
top 50 -- and seven out of their nine ranked prospects in total -- all make
a living throwing the baseball rather than hitting it. And those
throwing guys tend to be awfully fickle. Sometimes they work out
well and save their teams millions of dollars. But most of the
time...not so much. While Buchholz appears to be about as much of
a "sure thing" as a pitching prospect could be, remember that Jesse Foppert, Edwin Jackson and Jon Rauch were all recent top-four overall
prospects in this survey. From the hitting side, while Stewart
continues to slip in this ranking (from #4 to #15 to #39 to #58), he is
still just 23 years old, and has plenty of potential to be an impact
hitter. And this year's #1 farm pick, Beckham, may become the best
hitting prospect this franchise has ever seen.
#5 St. Louis Apostles
Ranked prospects: Joba
Chamberlain (4), Colby Rasmus (6), Jose Tabata (40), Desmond Jennings
(48), Deolis Guerra (59)
Unranked prospects: Michael Almanzar, Kelvin DeLeon, Luis
Hernandez, Joe Koshansky, Jesus Montero, Oscar Tejeda, Billy Buckner,
Charlie Haeger, Jim Johnson, Hiroki Kuroda, Wes Reomer, Dennis Sarfate,
Julio Teheran, Dallas Trahern
This is also an all-time high ranking for
this organization. The two top-ten prospects on the Apostles farm
account for roughly 60% of St. Louis' total points in this survey.
Unless something catastrophic happens, both Chamberlain and Rasmus will
no longer be eligible for this survey next year. And given that
Bobby focused almost completely on 16-year-old foreigners in the draft
this year, it may be a while before St. Louis ranks this highly again.
But with Chamberlain possibly heading the rotation, and Rasmus
potentially hitting in the middle of the lineup, for many years to come,
I'm sure his team's ranking in this survey won't bother Bobby much.
#6 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Fernando
Martinez (22), Reid Brignac (24), Ian Kennedy (29), Radhames Liz (64),
Chris Tillman (65), Brandon Jones (66), Sean Gallagher (91), Alan Horne
(96), Kevin Mulvey (117), Adrian Cardenas (123), Will Inman (149)
Unranked prospects: Greg Halman, Jonathan Herrera, Cedric Hunter,
Chris Lubanski, Alexei Ramirez, Justin Smoak, Chad Tracy, Tony Butler
While there may not be any "Grade A"
prospects on the Sea Cats' farm, there are plenty of "B's." And
oftentimes in the prospect world, it is better to have quantity than
quality. This franchise gained six spots in this ranking, despite
the fact that their #1 prospect from last year, Brignac, dropped five
spots in the overall ranking, and their #2 prospect (Adam Lind)
graduated to the big leagues. The reason for the jump in the
rankings is that GM Tony DeCastro was able to add Martinez, Kennedy,
Gallagher and Horne through trade. Smoak should give this team
another top-50 prospect next year, and Ramirez may be a valuable member of
the '09 team despite being ineligible for this ranking this season (by
most publications, at least.)
#7 New Milford Blazers
Ranked prospects: Clayton
Kershaw (5), Homer Bailey (8), Matt LaPorta (44), Brett Anderson (63),
Troy Patton (84), Michael Burgess (110), Nick Weglarz (115), Justin
Maxwell (143), Brad Lincoln (152)
Unranked prospects: Eric Patterson, Dana Eveland, Michael
Gardner, Carlos Guevara, Josh Outman, Humberto Sanchez, Aaron Thompson,
Travis Wood
Last year, Anthony Peburn boldly
proclaimed 18-year-old snot-nosed high school punk Clayton Kershaw to be among the top ten prospects
in the game of baseball, based on 37 innings of professional pitching.
This year, every one of our panel of experts agrees with him. You
know what they say about broken clocks, right? Out
of our panel of six experts, Kershaw ranked no higher than #3 (on Sickels' top-50 pitchers list) and no lower than #7 (Baseball America.)
And thanks to Kershaw, and the winter trade that netted Bailey, the
Blazers rank among the top ten for the first time since 2002.
Let's all hope that Kershaw doesn't blow out an elbow or a shoulder like
most 19-year-old flamethrowers, as that would be a genuine tragedy.
Peburn now believes that LaPorta is a top-15 prospect, and Anderson,
Burgess and Weglarz are top-50 material. We'll see how prescient
he is a year from now.
#8 Akron R�che
Ranked prospects: Johnny
Cueto (26), Daric Barton (37), Manny Parra (49), Fautino de los Santos
(50), Tommy Hanson (80), Gerardo Parra (103), Cole Rohrbough (131)
Unranked prospects: Dustin Ackley, Jordan Brown, James Darnell,
Taylor Green, Angel Salome, Seth Smith, Matt Whitney, Jose Ascanio,
Jerry Blevins, Danny Duffy, Brent Fisher, Matthew Shepard, Alexander
Smit
No farm club made more of an
improvement this year than the Ryche. Akron ranked #23 last
season, with only one ranked prospect: Jonathan Meloan at #99.
This year, Meloan is no longer on the team, yet Akron has jumped 15
places in this ranking. The main reason for that improvement is
the sudden emergence of Cueto, from relatively obscure A-ball hurler to
the #26 prospect in baseball. At 21 years old, Cueto (a mid-season
free agent pick-up by Akron in 2006) jumped all the way from A-ball to
Triple-A, and didn't suffer any of the usual growing pains in the
process. He now has a good chance of seeing significant big league
time this season. Another factor were the acquisitions of Barton
and Manny Parra from the Salem Cowtippers organization. Just
another happy customer of Appleseed, Inc..
#9 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Andy
LaRoche (18), Carlos Gonzalez (20), Kosuke Fukudome (69), James McDonald
(72), Neil Walker (77), Daniel Cortes (113)
Unranked prospects: Esmailyn Gonzalez, Chris Pettit, Hitoki
Iwase, Scott Lewis, Michael McCardell, Greg Miller, Edward Reynoso,
Graham Taylor, Koji Uehara
For the fifth year in a row, the Kansas
farm system ranks among the top ten. More than likely, that streak
will be broken next year, as LaRoche and Gonzalez should both graduate
to the big leagues, leaving this farm system with several prospects who
are unlikely to crack the top 30. While LaRoche should be a useful
BDBL player in 2009, he is blocked on the Law Dogs by some guy named
Wright. Of course, this means he'll be prime trade bait at some
point over the next ten months. If everyone were playing by the
same rules, Fukudome would undoubtedly rank much higher than 69th
overall, but most publications still don't consider Japanese rookies to
be rookies. Fuku could make more of an impact in 2009 than any
other player on this page, yet he was ranked by only two of our panel of
experts (#24 by HQ and #30 by BA.)
#10 Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Chase
Headley (27), Gio Gonzalez (38), J.R. Towles (60), Michael Main (75),
Neftali Feliz (88), Wladimir Balentien (105), Nick Blackburn (111), Greg
Reynolds (127)
Unranked prospects: Corey Brown, Jeff Larish, Lance Broadway,
Nick Hagadone, Bryan Henry, Bud Norris, James Simmons, Matt Smith, Ryan
Tucker
For a franchise whose farm system has
included the likes of Delmon Young, Chase Utley, Chien-Ming Wang, Erik
Bedard and Hideki Matsui, it's hard to believe this is the highest
ranking they have ever achieved. The big club will soon welcome a
second "Chase" to the mix in Headley, who fits the profile of the type
of player who will hit the ground running once he's given a shot.
Gonzalez is a power-pitching lefty who is highly-regarded by everyone,
it seems, except Keith Law (who omitted Gonzalez entirely from his top
100.) Those two are about as close to "sure things" as prospects
can get, and once they've graduated to the big leagues (probably this
season), the Flamingos won't have much left to get excited about.
But if you can churn out two impact prospects every two years, that's a
phenomenal accomplishment.
#11 Corona Confederates
Ranked prospects: Brandon
Wood (19), Matt Antonelli (45), Max Scherzer (51), Hank Conger (79),
Matt Latos (91), Joe Savery (139)
Unranked prospects: Brian Barton, John Bowker, Shin-Soo Choo,
Vince Sinisi, Brandon Snyder, Matt Sweeney, Abe Alvarez, Josh Banks,
Christian Friedrich, Tyler Lumsden
The last-ranked franchise in this study
a year ago, the Confederates made a significant leap up the rankings
this year thanks to the acquisition of one player: Wood. Of
course, that one player came with a hefty price tag, as he was traded,
in effect, for $21 million last winter. Over the past three years,
Corona has traded several top-ten prospects, including Jay Bruce,
Cameron Maybin and Ryan Braun. So it's not like this franchise's
farm system isn't producing top talent. They just can't seem to
hold onto it (nor get anything substantial from it!) Recently, GM
Ed McGowan has focused much of his efforts on pitching (no doubt in an
effort to avoid having to pay $21 million for another pitcher down the
road.) This has led to the acquisitions of Scherzer, Latos, Savery
and Friedrich. But it's the hitters -- Wood, Antonelli, Conger and
Barton -- who are more likely to produce for this franchise.
#12 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Evan
Longoria (2), Travis Snider (15), Brent Lillibridge (96), Michael Bowden
(131), Drew Stubbs (153)
Unranked prospects: Kevin Ahrens, Joaquin Arias, Joe Benson, Nick
Hundley, Nick Noonan, Josh Reddick, Craig Hansen, Jack McGeary, Jeff
Samardzija, Donald Veal
The last time the Black Sox had a
prospect ranked as highly as Longoria, it was 2002, when Josh Beckett
ranked #1 overall. Chicago has had a history of top-ten picks,
including Prince Fielder, Mark Prior, Josh Hamilton and Victor Martinez.
If past history is any indication, Longoria will become a minimum-wage,
high-impact franchise player at some point very soon. Snider is
close behind Longoria in the rankings, but is several years behind in
terms of development. If he continues progressing, he could very
easily rank among the top ten next year. Of the unranked group,
Ahrens, Noonan and McGeary were all highly-coveted prep players from the
'07 MLB amateur draft, and each has the ability to leap into the ranked
list a year from now.
#13 Manchester Irish Rebels
Ranked prospects: Angel
Villalona (41), Austin Jackson (47), Scott Elbert (61), Brett Cecil
(86), Matt Dominguez (109), Phillippe Aumont (137), Josh Smoker (146)
Unranked prospects: J.P. Arencibia, Julio Borbon, John Drennan,
Sam Fuld, C.J. Henry, Pete Kozma, Chris Carpenter, Dan Moskos, Nick
Schmidt
In 2002, Jim Doyle had the third
overall pick in the farm draft. And with that pick, he selected a
skinny 18-year-old kid who had posted a 709 OPS (.268/.327/.382) in the
Midwest League the previous year. And that kid was named Miguel
Cabrera. Often, it is better to be lucky than good. Doyle
hoped to catch the same lightning in the same bottle when he selected
the 16-year-old Villalona with the first pick of 2007 farm draft (just
two picks before I was poised to select him myself.) And after
just 57 professional games -- all in rookie/short-season ball --
Villalona (whose name his GM still can't pronounce correctly) is already
ranked the #41 prospect in baseball. After taking a few years off
to try out a new strategy, Doyle is back to his tried-and-true farm
strategy of selecting only first-round draft picks. Of the 16 players listed
above, only two (Villalona and Carpenter) were not first-round draft
picks.
#14 Southern Cal Slyme
Ranked prospects: Jacoby
Ellsbury (13), Tyler Colvin (71), Henry Sosa (87), Engel Beltre (114),
Brett Sinkbeil (121), Blake Beaven (123), Collin Balester (141)
Unranked prospects: Jose Jose, Chris Parmelee, Kyle Russell,
Robert Stock, Yu Darvish, Christian Garcia, Shane Lindsay, Tim Melville,
Adam Ottavino
With the exception of Ellsbury, the
SoCal farm is all about projection. Colvin has a first-round
pedigree, and hit .299 with 16 homers in his first professional season,
jumping all the way up to Double-A. But his lack of plate
discipline (15 BBs, 101 Ks in 125 G) means there is still a long way to
go in his development. Beltre hit just .243 in his first season of
rookie ball, and whiffed 75 times in 65 games, but scouts wet themselves over his
tools. Sinkbeil whiffed a paltry 5.6 batters per nine in his
second pro season, but scouts remain high on his skill set. And
Beaven, Russell, Stock and Melville have yet to face pro competition, so
they're all about projection at this point. And then there's
Darvish. Will he pitch in the US? When will he
pitch in the US? How good would he be if he pitched in the US?
Not even Darvish himself knows the answers to those questions.
#15 Villanova Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Carlos
Carrasco (53), Jed Lowrie (54), Chris Volstad (70), Chuck Lofgren (90),
Anthony Swarzak (108), Trevor Cahill (120)
Unranked prospects: Josh Bell, Caleb Gindl, Chad Huffman, Andrew
Lambo, Matt Tuiasosopo, Jack Egbert, Edgar Garcia, Drew Miller, Clayton
Mortensen, Garrett Olson
Just three years ago, the Mustangs'
farm system was the most dominant farm system in the BDBL, with
back-to-back #1 rankings in this survey. But it's now 2008, and
Andy Marte, Casey Kotchman, Chad Billingsley, Jeremy Reed, Nick Swisher,
Jesse Crain, Joe Blanton, Curtis Granderson, Brian McCann, Joey Votto,
Dustin McGowan and Adam Wainwright aren't walking through that
door. What's left is Jed Lowrie and a collection of pitchers that
may or may not become useful someday. Opinions are divided about
each one of Villanova's ranked prospects, as not one of them was
unanimously ranked by all six of our experts.
#16 Allentown Ridgebacks
Ranked prospects: Jacob
McGee (17), Billy Rowell (95), Tim Alderson (100), Chris Nelson (103),
Chris Withrow (141)
Unranked prospects: Jeff Bianchi, Travis Denker, Jose Martinez,
Michael Saunders, John Tolisano, John Whittleman, Hayden Penn
With Ryan Braun, Elijah Dukes, Billy
Butler, Kelly Johnson, Mark Reynolds, Cody Ross, Scott Baker, Yovani
Gallardo, Felix Hernandez, Andy Sonnanstine and Tim Lincecum all earning
minimum wage on the big club, it's not like the Ridgebacks even need a
farm system. Yet they have another cheap starting pitcher on the
way in McGee, and two more promising arms in the lower levels in
Alderson and Withrow. Both Rowell and Nelson were former
first-round picks who were each ranked much higher in this survey a year
or two ago, but have since taken a step backward. If they can
regain that step, Allentown will have two more cheap weapons at their
disposal. Interesting side note: despite the dearth of hitting
prospects on the farm, Allentown dumped a top-40 prospect (Carlos
Triunfel) on Cutdown Day this winter.
#17 Nashville Funkadelic
Ranked prospects: David
Price (8), Matt Harrison (111), Matt Gamel (146)
Unranked prospects: Yung-Chi Chen, Eddy Martinez-Esteve, Brandon
Moss, Ikko Sumi, Wilson Tucker, Michael Wilson, Jake Arrieta, Kyuki
Fujikawa, Kazuo Fukumori
It has gotten to the point where I need
an interpreter in order to discuss the Funkadelic farm system.
Because GM Steve Osborne tends to focus on Japanese players for his farm
club, and because those players are usually ineligible for "top
prospect" lists, the Funk don't do particularly well in this survey.
To date, Steve's East Asia-centric strategy has paid some dividends with
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tad Iguchi, Akinori Iwamura and Chin-Lung Hu.
Of the current crop, Chen is a 25-year-old Taiwainese-born second
baseman in the Seattle organization, Sumi is a diminutive (5'8")
20-year-old third baseman who dropped out of a Japanese university to
sign with the Angels, Fujikawa is a closer with the Hanshin Tigers who
only has a few years of service time under his belt, and Fukumori is a
reliever signed by the Rangers this winter. Of course, none of
those guys are as good as Price, who ranks among the top ten prospects
in the game before he's even thrown a single professional pitch.
#18 Sylmar Padawans
Ranked prospects: Geovanny
Soto (46), Lars Anderson (55), Dexter Fowler (82), Andrew Brackman (153)
Unranked prospects: Brent Clevlen, Isaac Galloway, Jared Goedert,
Cody Johnson, Kyle Skipworth, Jose Arrendondo, Cesar Carillo, Jose
Garcia, Richie Gardner, Kenshin Kawakami, Sean O'Sullivan, Chaz Roe,
Chuck Tiffany
Every once in a while, a farm team
comes along where I like the unranked players much more than the ranked
players. This is one of those teams. Johnson showed great
power potential in high school, and is still young enough to translate
that power to pro ball. Skipworth is considered to be an elite
prep bat in the '08 draft class, and earns bonus points for being a catcher.
Galloway is an elite athlete, and could climb up the draft rankings
with a good senior year. And Kawakami may be the most coveted
Japanese import on the market next winter. But it's time to cut
bait on some of these guys. I mean, does anyone still hold out
hope that Gardner will become a useful major leaguer? Or Roe?
Or Tiffany? Or Carillo? Or Garcia? Of course, because
I've just damned them, it means at least two of them will blossom into
superstars over the next year or two.
#19 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Jordan
Schafer (32), German Duran (106), Jamie Garica (115), Chris Carter
(131), Eduardo Morlan (146)
Unranked prospects: Eric Campbell, Mike Carp, Chris Denorfia,
Todd Frazier, George Kottaras, Devin Mesaraco, Jermaine Mitchell, Sean
Rodriguez, Jeff Manship, Darrell Rasner, Mitch Talbot
Here's another one of those teams where
the unranked group seems more exciting than the ranked group. In
particular, I'd take Frazier, Mesaraco, Rodriguez or Manship over any of
the ranked players other than Schafer. The opinions on Schafer are
wide-ranged, as Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked him
#17, while Jonathan Mayo of minorleaguebaseball.com didn't rank him
among his top 50. Some of Ravenswood's prospects seem to be going
backward, as Rodriguez ranked #90 in this survey last year, Campbell
ranked #98, and Talbot ranked #106.
#20 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Justin
Masterson (57), Nolan Reimold (80), John Jaso (135), Beau Mills (139),
Ben Revere (143)
Unranked prospects: Tyler Greene, Matt McBride, Brad Snyder,
Craig Stansberry, Randor Bierd, Kyle Drabek, Preston Guilmet, Evan Meek,
Kazumi Saitoh
The Rocks owned the 17th pick in the
farm draft this winter, yet walked away with the fourth-best prospect
according to our panel of experts. Masterson was ranked among the
top 60 prospects in baseball by every one of our experts, with the
exceptions of Baseball America (#64) and Jonathan Mayo (not
ranked.) After years of neglecting his farm system, GM Mike Stein
finally broke out of the bottom five last year. But a year later,
he's back at the bottom again.
#21 New Hope Badgers
Ranked prospects: Steven
Pearce (67), Tyler Robertson (99), Wes Hodges (135), Hector Gomez (150)
Unranked prospects: Jeremy Brown, Aaron Cunningham, Charlie
Fermaint, Cole Gillespie, Javy Herrera, Michael Hollimon, Eugenio Velez,
Jimmy Barthmaier, J.A. Happ, Wade LeBlanc, Scott Mathieson, David
Pauley, Jaime Richmond, Pat Venditte
GM Tony Badger has claimed that I have
been unfair to his farm system over the years. He has claimed that
I just don't appreciate the subtle nuances of his strategy, which
focuses on acquiring players with underappreciated skill sets tailored
to specific supporting roles in the big leagues. But evidently, I
am not alone. No Badgers prospect was ranked higher than #43 in
this year's survey by any of our experts, although both Pearce and
Robertson were ranked among the top 30 by Sickels in his separate
pitchers/hitters lists. Of course, this low ranking is nothing new
for this franchise. Nor is it new for Badger, as his team has
ranked #20, #17, #20 and #21 in the four full seasons in which he has
been the full-time GM. Since taking over the franchise, Badger has
added a total of 24 farm players through free agency. Of those 24,
none has been ranked among the top 60 prospects in baseball, and only
one (Shaun Marcum) has posted a career VORP above 0.0 so far. And
yet, over the past two years, Badger has been able to trade prospects
for the likes of David Ortiz, John Lackey and Jason Isringhausen.
Go figure.
#22 San Antonio Broncs
Ranked prospects: Chris
Davis (75), Kasey Kiker (96), Jordan Zimmerman (137)
Unranked prospects: Jeff Baisley, Chris Carter, Balbino Fuenmayor,
Kala Kaaihue, Dallas McPherson, Brayan Pena, Max Ramirez, Kyle
McCulloch, Ricky Romero, Josh Rupe
What is there to say about the San
Antonio Broncs' farm system? No, seriously. I'm running out
of material. Davis was the team's #1 draft pick this winter, and
is now their #1 prospect. That's not a good sign when the draft
class was as weak as this winter's. Kiker and Zimmerman are both
A-ball pitchers, so it's tough to predict their futures at this point.
And of the unranked prospects, I like Ramirez's chances of becoming a
"ranked" prospect next year, and I think Kaaihue is a bit underrated.
There, I found something to say after all.
#23 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Aaron
Poreda (73), Chris Perez (118), Kyle Blanks (121)
Unranked prospects: Norichika Aoki, Emilio Bonifacio, Bryan
LaHair, Travis Blackley, Madison Bumgarner, Tyler Clippard, Casey
Crosby, Kevin Hart, Masahide Kobayashi, Sergio Romo, Merkin Valdez
What are Blackley and Valdez still
doing on a BDBL farm club? Seriously. It's time to let go.
There's not much to say about this group of prospects, either. No
team fell further in the ranking this year than the Jamboree.
Blanks and Blackley were acquired last year in exchange for John Lackey.
'Nuff said? Both Perez and (to a greater extent) Kobayashi should
help the Bear Country bullpen in 2009. None of the other players
on this farm team are likely to help anyone. Ever.
#24 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Josh
Donaldson (131)
Unranked prospects: Ambiorex Concepcion, Jake Fox, Tony Thomas,
Mitch Atkins, Thomas Diamond, Juan Mateo, Billy Petrick, David Purcey,
Yasuhiko Yabuta
Only one team in the history of this
survey has ever scored a perfect zero: the 2000 Boise Bastards. If
not for one pity vote by Keith Law (who ranked Donaldson #76 in his top
100), the Sphinx would have joined that illustrious club. Come on,
Scott, is this really the best you could do? Why not follow in
Doyle's footsteps and simply run your finger down the list of
first-round draft picks from last season and take the first name
available? Why not run down to your local Barnes & Noble and pick
up a copy of Baseball America? Why not spend a few minutes
on-line, looking for web sites dedicated to pro and/or amateur
prospects? Maybe do a Google search for top college or high school
prospects? If this farm club were a kitten, Scott Romonosky would
be rooming with Michael Vick.
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