June, 2013

Chapter Three Recap

Players of the Chapter

In 2008, the Atlanta Fire Ants were en route to breaking a 10-year-old record for losses in a single season.  At the halfway point of the season, they owned a league-worst record of 25-55, which gave them the first pick in the June free agent draft.  With that pick, they selected a young shortstop from Gene Patterson's home state of Georgia (Gordon Beckham) who had just been selected 8th overall in the MLB Amateur Draft just days before.  The Great Lakes Sphinx and South Carolina Sea Cats wrapped up the third chapter by sharing the honor of having the second-worst record in the BDBL, and because the Sea Cats had been outscored by more runs than Great Lakes to that point, they were given the #2 pick in that mid-season draft.  With that pick, Tony DeCastro selected a young catcher who had been selected three spots ahead of Beckham in the MLB draft: Buster Posey.

(Trivia: the Sphinx traded their #3 overall pick that summer, as they liked Cubs prospect Josh Vitters more than whoever was available at that point.  And it was then that the Salem Cowtippers selected Stephen Strasburg.)

All Posey did last chapter was lead the Eck League in batting (.475), on-base (.563), slugging (.788), and runs created (33.7).  He is now leading the EL in all three of the "triple-slash" categories, and is the frontrunner to win the MVP award.  If that happens, he will join Joe Mauer (2010) and Victor Martinez (2006) as the only catchers to ever win that award in the BDBL.

It's hard to believe that just two years ago, Edwin Encarnacion was a 29-year-old with a career .260/.336/.453 batting line and just two seasons with 20+ home runs on his resume.  He must have started eating extra spinach (or something) at that point, because he has since become one of the more powerful hitters in baseball.  Last chapter, Encarnacion hit .361/.467/.675 with 8 homers and 26 RBI's, carrying the Flagstaff Outlaws to within a game of the division lead.  He is obviously our OL Hitter of the Chapter, although an Honorable Mention goes to Corona's Albert Pujols, who led the league in both home runs (10) and ribbies (27) for the chapter.

Four different pitchers went 4-0 in the Eck League last chapter, and seven different pitchers posted an ERA below 2.50.  Allentown's Jake Peavy led the way with a miniscule 1.36 ERA, and also held opponents to a .193/.239/.283 batting line, so he is our EL Pitcher of the Chapter.  Tom DiStefano's $10 million signing this past winter is paying huge dividends.

In the OL, New Milford's Someone Named Quintana, who won the OL Pitcher of the Chapter award last chapter, posted the best ERA in the league (1.10) this chapter as well.  Teammate Travis Blackley led the league last chapter in both lowest BA (.179) and OBP (.227) allowed.  Another teammate, Clayton Kershaw, led the league in wins, with five, while posting a 1.96 ERA.  And Kershaw and Quintana combined to throw a no-hitter.  So I'm just going to give the OL Pitcher of the Chapter award to the Blazers as a team.

Top Stories of the Chapter

Story #1: Draft Day

Since the league adopted the "Paulson Rule" in 2003, and we limited our farm acquisitions to just one mid-season chapter, the Chapter Four free agent deadline has become something of an event.  As we learned in the story above, the decisions made at this time of the year can have a massive impact on a franchise's future.  In the past, I've written about the importance of a strong farm club to a franchise's success.  I've also written about how stockpiling your farm system with amateur talent has historically been a losing strategy.  However, it's also a fact that every player in professional baseball was an amateur at one point in his career.  And it's also a fact that first round draft picks -- especially those selected within the first 5-10 picks of the draft -- have a much better success rate than lower picks.  So it stands to reason that if you want to build a strong farm system, stockpiling as many early first-rounders as possible would go a long way toward that goal.

Of course, if you want to nab an early first-round pick, you'd better get him early.  How early?  Well, this year, many analysts were predicting that Oklahoma ace Jonathan Gray would be the #1 overall selection in the MLB draft earlier this month.  If that had happened, he would have become the first #1 pick in BDBL history to be drafted by a Major League team before he was drafted by a BDBL team.  As a whole, since 2003, the #1 pick in the MLB draft was acquired by his BDBL franchise an average of 19 months ahead of time.  In other words, if you'd like to own the #1 pick in the 2015 draft, that opportunity likely just passed.

If we take the first five picks in the MLB draft (since 2003) as a group, the average number of months they were acquired in the BDBL before they were drafted in MLB is nearly 9 months.  In other words, if you'd like to own any of the top five picks in next year's MLB draft, it's already too late.

There is hope, though.  Out of the 55 top-five picks since 2003, 13 of them were acquired in the BDBL after they were drafted in MLB: Mike Moustakas, Greg Reynolds, Gray, Evan Longoria, Tony Sanchez, Daniel Moskos, Brad Lincoln, Ryan Zimmerman, Kyle Zimmer, Matthew Hobgood, Buster Posey, Brandon Morrow and Mark Rogers.  Not a bad group, actually (and proof that the Doyle Strategy� does work.)

In case you're wondering, the record for the number of months a player was acquired in the BDBL before becoming a top-five MLB draft pick is 41, set by Gerrit Cole, who chose to go to college after he was drafted out of high school and later became the #1 overall pick following his college career.  Cole is one of three #1 MLB draft picks originally drafted by Salem since 2003 -- four if you count Stephen Strasburg, who was selected by Salem using Great Lakes' pick.  Out of the 55 top-five picks since 2003, Salem owned 9 of them.  You'll never guess who tops the list with 10.  His name rhymes with Smeff Smaulson.  No other franchise has owned more than 4 top-five picks during that time.

It probably goes without saying that predicting who will be among the top five picks in any draft is an exercise in futility.  Within the past two years, several BDBL teams took a gamble on amateur talent in the belief that they were acquiring a surefire top-five pick in the 2013 draft.  But guys like Sean Manaea, Clinton Hollon, Austin Wilson, Oscar Mercado, Drew Ward and Cavan Biggio fell out of the first round completely.  Draft Day fates change extremely quickly and unpredictably, which means luck plays more of a factor than perhaps even good scouting.  As I've written here before, even if you owned every first-round pick in the MLB draft, your record of success would be abysmal.

Regardless, even if you wanted to take your chances on this crapshoot, it seems likely that it is already too late to secure one of the top picks in the 2014 MLB draft.  Carlos Rodon, Tyler Beede, Michael Conforto, Trea Turner, Derek Fisher, Aaron Nola and Alex Jackson are already taken.  And many of the players projected to top the 2015 draft list have just been taken as well.  So I guess it's time to start looking toward 2016.  I hear there's a toddler in the daycare down the road who can hurl his Legos clear across the room.  Better get to scouting.

Story #2: The Return of Scot Zook

As we have learned all too often in the past, good owners are hard to find.  They are especially hard to find when the franchise you are trying to fill is as pathetic as the Dieppe Marauders.  So when Scot Zook agreed to accept that awesome challenge, I couldn't have been more grateful.

There has only been one other time in league history when a former owner returned to the league, and that is when Ken "The Shark" Kaminski waffled over his decision to join the league in the middle of our very first season, and then waffled over his decision to leave the league shortly after doing so.  Sharky re-joined the league in the middle of the very next season, and stayed for another six and a half seasons.  Let's hope that Scot sticks with us for at least as long.

Story #3: New Milford Still Inexplicably Dominating

The Blazers closed out the third chapter with a 16-8 record, which was the best mark for any OL team in the chapter.  At the halfway point of the season, they are 55-25 -- a .688 winning percentage -- and they have outscored their opponents by a whopping 181 runs (50 more than the next best differential.)  They are just 23-17 (.575) on the road, but -- get a load of this -- 32-8 (.800!!) at home.  No other team in the BDBL has won more than 27 games at home.

Of the 19 position players on the New Milford roster who have batted this year, SIXTEEN of them have posted a higher OPS in the BDBL this season than they did in MLB last year.  And EIGHT of those sixteen (i.e. enough to fill a batting lineup) have outperformed their MLB OPS by at least 100 points.

On the pitching side, 15 players have taken the hill for New Milford this season, and 7 of them have allowed a lower OPS in the BDBL than they did in MLB.

Story #4: Chicago Still Inexplicably Terrible

The Black Sox once again trailed their division with a 10-14 record last chapter, giving them an overall record of 33-47 (.412).  They now trail the division leaders by 11 games, and have been outscored this season by 47 runs.

Out of the 15 players that have stepped into the batter's box for Chicago this season, just 5 are outperforming their MLB OPS.  And SIX players own a BDBL OPS that is more than 100 points below their MLB OPS!

On the hill, 15 players have thrown a pitch for Chicago this season, and just four of them have held opponents to a lower OPS in the BDBL than they did in MLB.

Story #5: Ridgebacks Shift Into High Gear

It's no surprise that the Ridgebacks are dominating the league once again, but they seem to have shifted into a higher gear this past chapter, posting the best record (20-4) in the BDBL.  For the second year in a row, Tom's MP beat up on the hapless Ozzie League, going 14-2 in interleague play.  That gives Allentown a 45-19 record (.703) in interleague play over the last four seasons.

When Chapter Two began, the Ridgebacks trailed the Kansas Law Dogs by four games in the division.  Since then, Allentown has won over 73% of their games and has outscored their opponents by over 100 runs.

Their offense is doing more scoring than Bill Clinton at a slumber party, but it's their pitching that is one of the stories of the season so far.  Did you know that Brad Ziegler has yet to allow an earned run in 27 innings of relief?  Combined, the bullpen trio of Ziegler, Koji Uehara and Darren O'Day has allowed just 11 earned runs in 103 innings -- an ERA of 0.96.  And the starting rotation trio of Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson and Gio Gonzalez are a combined 27-15 with an ERA of 2.97 in 373 innings.

Story #6: Eck League Dominates Interleague Play. Again.

The last five interleague records for the Eck League:

2009: 106-86
2010: 101-91
2011: 99-93
2012: 111-81
2013: 110-82

That's a total of 527 wins in five years, and a winning percentage of .549.

Yep.  Maybe it is time for another realignment.

Story #7: Cleveland Hanging In There

The Cleveland Rocks have been outscored by their opponents by 43 runs this season.  According to Pythagoras, they should be 10 games below .500, and we should be talking about where they will be trading Curtis Granderson.  Instead, we're talking about whether or not the Rocks can make a run at the division title.

At the halfway mark of the season, Cleveland is sporting a .500 record, and sits just four games behind the division-leading Akron Ryche, with the surging Atlanta Fire Ants wedged in between.  As you might imagine, Cleveland owns the best record in the BDBL (18-9) in one-run games.

And yes, the Rocks are still stealing bases at an annoyingly high rate -- a BDBL leading 91 to date, which is 26 more than the next highest total.