March, 2013

2013 BDBL Farm Report

This is the 14th year I've written this farm report, and I sometimes wonder whether there is a point to it.  We all know that MLB dynasties are created when they build from the farm up.  The great Yankees dynasty of the late 90's was built from a foundation of players (Jeter, Posada, Williams, Pettitte, Rivera, etc.) who all came from the farm.  The Red Sox won two championships in four years around a nucleus of farm-raised youngsters including Jason Varitek, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.  And the current defending champion Giants have won two championships in the last three seasons thanks to the contributions of former farmhands Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner.

Because the BDBL employs a salary cap, this should make farm players even more valuable and essential to success than they are in MLB.  However, more often than not, it seems as though farm players are used primarily by successful teams as trade bait.  Most owners are willing to sacrifice several years of potential production for a year or two of guaranteed production.

Several years ago, I did a small study in an attempt to determine whether a team's ranking in this farm report has any correlation to long-term success on the field.  I found enough of a correlation to convince me that this is a worthwhile effort.  Since it's been a while, and we now have a much larger sample of data available, I decided to repeat that study.  Here are the numbers:

This validates my previous finding that there is a decent correlation between a team's farm ranking and their success over the following 1-4 seasons.  A graph of ranking vs. the average number of wins over those five seasons shows this correlation pretty clearly:

Of course, this is a chicken-and-egg deal.  Does an outstanding farm club lead to success on the field?  Or do successful teams simply own outstanding farm clubs?  For the most part, teams that rank at the top of the farm report pay greater attention to the news, are more active in their team's day-to-day management, do more research, and are better at predicting future performance than other teams.  These qualities in a GM not only lead to better farm clubs, but tend to lend themselves well to success in general.  So a high farm ranking may simply be a function -- as opposed to a factor -- of a team's success.

For the new guys in the league, here's how our Farm Report works.  Each year, I collect the top prospect lists from a select group of experts.  This year, those experts include ESPN's Keith Law, Baseball HQ's Rob Gordon, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo and the staff of Baseball America.  I then assign 100 points to the #1 player on each list, 99 points to #2, and so on, down to one point for #100.  I then tally all of the points for every team in the BDBL, which results in something that looks like this:

#1 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Gerrit Cole (5), Jameson Taillon (17), Mike Zunino (18), Julio Teheran (28), Danny Hultzen (28), Bubba Starling (32), Aaron Sanchez (37), Alen Hanson (42), Nolan Arenado (58), Kyle Gibson (59), Martin Perez (86), Dorssys Paulino (95)
Unranked prospects: Garin Cecchini, Alex Jackson, Deven Marrero, Mark Appel, Sean Manaea

No surprise here.  The Undertakers have been a prospect factory for 14 years.  And, to my point above, it's no coincidence that they're also ranked #2 on the all-time franchise wins list.  This is the second year in a row the Los Altos farm has been ranked #1 in this report, and the fourth time they've attained the #1 ranking in the past eight years.  The formula to GM Jeff Paulson's success is so simple, it's a wonder it hasn't been mimicked by every owner in the league.  Paulson identifies the top amateur talent available in high school and college (which, granted, is no easy task, and can often be a crapshoot) and snags them well before they've reached the pros.  By doing so, he constantly has another wave of top prospects waiting in the wings.  So when one wave either graduates to the big leagues or is traded, they are immediately replaced by a new wave of equally-talented prospects from the amateur ranks.  This year's team is no exception, as Appel and Manaea should be among the first five players selected in the MLB June draft.  It's frightening to imagine a 2018 Los Altos starting rotation that includes Appel, Manaea, Cole, Taillon, Teheran, Hultzen and Sanchez, all pitching at a salary well below market value.  But then, it wasn't that long ago that I was fretting about a possible Los Altos rotation that included Brian Matusz, Brad Holt, Kyle Blair, Tyler Matsek, Alex White and Matt Harvey.  So don't hit the panic button just yet.

#2 Southern Cal Slyme
Ranked prospects: Travis d'Arnaud (13), Billy Hamilton (21), Jackie Bradley (30), Kevin Gausman (33), George Springer (41), Alex Meyer (49), Noah Syndergaard (51), Jedd Gyorko (52), Jake Odorizzi (57), Lucas Giolito (73), Hyun-Jin Ryu (89), Dan Straily (119)
Unranked prospects: Stryker Trahan, Deck McGuire, Ryne Stanek, Kohl Stewart, Masahiro Tanaka

This winter, GM Bob Sylvester gave his son, Bobby, an early Christmas/birthday present by trading him his favorite player, Oscar Taveras.  Taveras (who ranks #3 in our survey) was acquired in exchange for (among others) two of the prospects listed above: Gausman and Gyorko.  That trade netted SoCal an extra 47 points in this survey, though all things considered I'd rather have quality over quantity.  That trade left d'Arnaud as the team's top prospect.  One of SoCal's prizes from the Great Purge of 2012, d'Arnaud has spent much of his professional career on the disabled list.  His various ailments include a back injury, a torn ligament in his thumb and (most recently) a torn ligament in his knee.  On the plus side, he's posted a 900+ OPS in each of the last two seasons, though both performances were skewed by ballpark and league factors.  Color me skeptical.  Hamilton (the 21st pick of the 2011 draft) set a minor league record for stolen bases last season.  I'm frankly shocked that Mike Stein hasn't already traded for him.  Bradley was also among the prospect bounty SoCal received when they threw in the towel last year and effectively exchanged a spot in the playoffs for the #2 spot in our Farm Report.  He is the second best prospect named "Bradley" in baseball, and profiles as an on-base machine with occasional pop and good defense.  Based purely on impact potential, the best prospect on this farm club isn't even ranked, as he is still under contract in Japan.  But if Tanaka ever comes to the US -- and by all reports he will -- he could have the same impact as another former SoCal Japanese import, Yu Darvish.

#3 St. Louis Apostles
Ranked prospects: Oscar Taveras (3), Miguel Sano (8), Francisco Lindor (14), Anthony Rendon (24), Jorge Soler (39), David Dahl (48), Max Fried (52), Brian Goodwin (55), Michael Wacha (87), Michael Choice (97), Wilmer Flores (106), Leonys Martin (125)
Unranked prospects: Jose Dariel Abreu, Aledmis Diaz, Nomar Mazara, Carlos Rodon

No one -- not even the Godfather, Nic Weiss -- practices the art of arbitrage better than Bobby Sylvester.  This past winter, Sylvester traded away several top prospects, including Adeiny Hecchevarria, Drew Pomeranz, Zack Cox, Trevor May, Travis Snider, Yonder Alonso, Jesus Montero, Anthony Gose, Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson, Jose Altuve, Matt Davidson and Mark Appel.  And yet, thanks to arbitrage, he still managed a #3 ranking in the Farm Report.  Last year, he acquired three of the first five picks of the draft, which he used to select Yoennis Cespedes, Jorge Soler and James Paxton.  And before the first pitch of the 2012 season was thrown, he also added top prospects Jarrod Parker and Brandon Belt.  He then went nuts at the Chapter Four deadline, making 10 trades that brought into the fold Jedd Gyorko, Mike Olt, Trevor May, Matt Davidson, Albert Almora, Byron Buxton, Josh Sale, Jackie Bradley, Francisco Lindor, Brad Peacock and Anthony Rendon.  Normally, for a team to add that much farm talent in one chapter, you would assume that team would be throwing in the towel and trading away a bunch of stars.  And yet, Sylvester not only managed to stay competitive, he won the Eck League title!  It's no wonder he won the EL GM of the Year award.

This past winter, Sylvester added his most prized possession, Oscar Taveras.  And, as always, he has back-filled his farm club with extremely high-risk/high-reward players -- most of whom are stuck behind the iron curtain in Cuba.  Last July, he made perhaps his shrewdest trade of year, sending Wade Miley to the Bear Country Jamboree in exchange for their first pick of the mid-season draft.  Sylvester then used that pick to select Carlos Rodon, who, if he were eligible for this survey would undoubtedly rank among the top 20 prospects in the game (if not higher.)  Given Sylvester's penchant for spasmodic trading, it seems unlikely that many of the players listed above (aside from maybe Taveras) will actually play a single game for the Apostles at any point in the near future.  But you can bet he will get more than enough value in return for them to be competitive for years to come.  And it's highly likely that when he does trade those players above, they'll be replaced with equally talented prospects.

#4 Niagara Locks
Ranked prospects: Jurickson Profar (1), Jose Fernandez (6), Xander Bogaerts (12), Shelby Miller (16), Jonathan Singleton (25), Carlos Martinez (35), Wily Peralta (68), Slade Heathcott (81), Jorge Alfaro (119)
Unranked prospects: Miguel Andujar, Josh Bell, Lewis Brinson, Gabriel Guerrero, Angelo Gumbs, Dilson Herrera, Adalberto Mondesi, Domingo Santana, Luiz Gohara

Since Mike Ranney took over this franchise in 2009, there has been a renewed emphasis on building the farm club.  Niagara ranked #18 when Ranney took over this franchise, and have now ranked among the top five two years in a row.  One of the main reasons for that high ranking is Profar, who was -- incredibly -- a FOURTH round selection in the 2010 farm draft.  He was just 16 years old, and had yet to play a single professional game at that point, which explains why he lasted that long.  It is extremely rare to see a player drafted at such a young age actually make an impact in the BDBL, and you could probably count the number of times this has happened in the past 14 years on one hand.  But Ranney took a late-draft gamble, bought a lottery ticket, and won.  Fernandez was more of a traditional acquisition, in the sense that most teams acquire their top prospects from Jim Doyle while he's in the midst of another delusional drive toward a .500 record.  Last season, Doyle traded Fernandez to the Locks (along with two other players!) in exchange for Adrian Beltre, who carried the Giants to a 79-81 record before becoming a free agent.  Bogaerts was another recent transaction by Niagara, as he was picked up in the mid-season farm draft of 2011.  So if you're looking for a pre-Ranney top prospect on this farm, you'll have to go with the team's 4th best prospect, Miller, who is now the #16 prospect in all of baseball.  He was originally acquired by this franchise way back in 2009, as part of a TEN-player trade with the Chicago Black Sox (who drafted him earlier that year.)

#5 Atlanta Fire Ants
Ranked prospects: Zack Wheeler (9), Mason Williams (38), Addison Russell (40), Kaleb Cowart (44), Jake Marisnick (65), Zach Lee (75), Arodys Vizcaino (91), Clayton Blackburn (110)
Unranked prospects: Miles Head, Patrick Leonard, C.J. Edwards, Jeurys Familia, Aaron Miller, Donn Roach, Alberto Tirado

GM Gene Patterson has done an outstanding job in the farm draft over the past few seasons.  Despite owning the last pick of every round in 2011, he was able to nab two ranked prospects -- Williams and Blackburn -- with his first two picks.  In 2011, Atlanta owned the 17th pick of the draft, and selected Wheeler in the first round.  Two of Atlanta's top five prospects are former Cowtippers.  Russell came to Atlanta last season in the disastrous Carlos Pena/Sean Marshall trade, and Marisnick came to Atlanta by way of Allentown in the Chipper Jones/Tim Hudson deal.  Russell is a good bet to launch to the top of this ranking by this time next year.  In just half a season, he hit .369/.432/.594, with 10 doubles, 9 triples and 7 homers.  Another name to watch is Tirado, who is unranked this year, but held his own as a 17-year-old in the Gulf Coast and Appy Leagues last year.

#6 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Albert Almora (36), Trevor Rosenthal (45), Chris Archer (47), Oswaldo Arcia (63), Yasiel Puig (72), Hak-Ju Lee (75), Bruce Rondon (110), Trevor May (129)
Unranked prospects: Elier Hernandez, Cory Spangenberg, Stetson Allie, Michael Fulmer, Heath Hembree, Lucas Sims, Erik Surkamp, Karsten Whitson

This team graduated three pitchers (Drew Pomeranz, Matt Harvey and Garrett Richards) to the big leagues last year, and traded a top-15 prospect (Francisco Lindor), and yet still managed to maintain their #6 ranking in this report.  The Jamboree's top prospect, Almora, was acquired in a mid-summer trade with the Apostles last year.  In that deal, Bear Country acquired not only Almora, but May and Wade Miley as well.  They paid a steep price for all that talent, sacrificing not only their own top prospect, Francisco Lindor, but also a first-round mid-summer farm pick that was used to select Carlos Rodon.  That may be one of those trades Jamboree fans look back upon and reflexively shake their heads back and forth, but for now it was a great deal for them.  Rosenthal really came out of nowhere last year, and rose all the way from A-ball to the major leagues.  He was a 21st round draft pick in 2009, and was not even ranked a year ago, yet he's now a top-50 prospect following a breakthrough 2012 season.  If I were to pick a player on this farm who may see a similar rise in the ranking over the next year, it would be Bear Country's #1 farm pick this season, Puig.  Like all Cuban players, Puig comes with a huge amount of hype and lofty scouting reports.  We've seen some players come out of Cuba who have had extensive experience in Cuba's professional league and in international play, and we've seen other players come out of Cuba with little experience, but tremendous raw tools.  Puig is really the first Cuban prospect who is both young and experienced.  It will be very interesting to see how he develops this season.

#7 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Dylan Bundy (2), Christian Yelich (10), Nick Franklin (54), Yordano Ventura (87), Cody Buckel (101)
Unranked prospects: Reese McGuire, Dominic Smith, Henry Urrutia, Jason Adam, Tyler Beede, Mauricio Cabrera, Ian Clarkin, John Lamb, Kyle Smith, Bobby Wahl

Bundy was ranked among the top three by every member of our panel this year.  He is the most exciting pitching prospect to come out of the Kansas farm club since Rick Ankiel, who was ranked #1 in our very first Farm Report way back in 2000.  Let's hope for Luhning's sake that Bundy has a longer pitching career.  At age 19, Bundy's stats last season were phenomenal: 103+ IP, 67 H, 6 HR, 28 BB, 119 K, 2.08 ERA at three different levels.  With Yelich clocking in at #10, this is the first time in league history this franchise has owned two top-10 prospects.  Traditionally, when a BDBL GM wants to dump some unwanted salary, it costs him a top prospect as payment for such a service.  It is absolutely astounding that Luhning was able to shed more than $50 million in salary last winter without sacrificing either of his top prospects.

#8 Cuenca Strangegloves
Ranked prospects: Carlos Correa (22), Tony Cingrani (78), Aaron Hicks (80), Luis Heredia (84), Adam Eaton (85), Jarred Cosart (102), Gary Brown (109)
Unranked prospects: Jorge Bonifacio, Cheslor Cuthbert, Clint Frazier, Austin Meadows, Kyle Parker, Will Swanner, Drew Vettleson, Chad Bettis, Ben Wells

The Strangegloves farm includes three prospects that are very young and very far away from the big leagues, but have sky-high ceilings.  Only one of them -- Correa -- is eligible for this year's ranking.  Although he stumbled a little in his pro debut, last year's #1 overall pick in the MLB Amateur Draft is so highly regarded that his little stumble didn't matter at all to our panel of experts, who ranked him as high as #13 (BA) and as low as #30 (Mayo).  The other two raw, young, athletic prospects on this team are Frazier and Meadows, who are considered to be the top two high school hitters in this year's MLB draft class.  Both are five-tool outfielders from Georgia, and both are ranked among the top four prospects in the Class of 2013 by Baseball America.  Unfortunately, many five-tool high school outfielders have had the career arc of this team's #3 prospect, Hicks.  For whatever reason, all those tools just don't translate to the field sometimes.  Cingrani's career minor league numbers speak for themselves: 197+ IP, 133 H, 10 HR, 58 BB, 252 K, 1.73 ERA.  Despite the lofty numbers, some scouts believe he'll end up in the bullpen due to his lack of a quality secondary pitch, which explains why he's only ranked #78.

#9 Flagstaff Outlaws
Ranked prospects: Archie Bradley (25), Robert Stephenson (50), Jesse Biddle (75), Asavail Garcia (98), Marcell Ozuna (104), J.R. Graham (118)
Unranked prospects: Cavan Biggio, Grant Green, Jared Mitchell, Chris Owings, Tyler Saladino, Edward Salcedo, Tim Wheeler, Sean Gilmartin, Tyrell Jenkins, Alex Wood

The Outlaws paid a hefty price (2012 20-game winner Doug Fister) for Bradley, so it's good to see him elevate himself into the top 25.  Although, if he's ever going to have any success whatsoever, he needs to bring down his walk rate (5.6 per 9 last season.)  As a former first-rounder, Stephenson has the pedigree of a top prospect.  Last season, he posted the numbers (65 IP, 54 H, 6 HR, 23 BB, 72 K) to back up that pedigree.  Of the unranked prospects, Green, Mitchell, Owings and Wheeler were all ranked in previous years, which should serve as a reminder that being ranked is no guarantee of success.  The most interesting name here is Biggio, who, as the son of one of Greg Newgard's favorite players, was likely a sentimental addition to the farm club.  Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how Cavan's career develops.  He's currently ranked #37 in the 2013 draft by Baseball America.

#10 Mississippi Meatballs
Ranked prospects: Byron Buxton (18), Mike Olt (31), Didi Gregorius (89)
Unranked prospects: Jaff Decker, Evan Gattis, Carson Kelly, Gareth Morgan, Jake Barrett, Drake Britton, Simon Castro, Onelki Garcia, Sonny Gray, Tyler Matzek, Trey McNutt, Brad Peacock, Sam Selman, Matt Smoral

The Meatballs only own three ranked prospects, but they are three potentially good ones.  After he was selected second overall in the MLB Amateur Draft, Buxton looked very Aaron Hicks-like in his professional debut last season, hitting .248/.344/.448 overall, with 5 homers and a 19/41 BB/K ratio at two rookie-league levels.  Baseball America liked what they saw so much, they ranked him #10, but no other expert from our panel ranked him higher than #19.  Olt's ranking at #31 suffered from a head-scratching outlier ranking of #71 from Keith Law.  Olt was ranked #22 by BA, #25 by HQ, and #22 by Mayo.  Law's main knock against Olt is that he swings and misses too often, and given his 253 K's in 237 minor league games, it's a valid critique.  With a career minor league OPS of 699, Gregorius is never going to win any batting awards, but by all accounts he's a gold glove defender at shortstop.  Given that the Diamondbacks traded Trevor Bauer for him, he'd better be an Ozzie Smith clone.  Mississippi's unranked list is a freak show of 27-year-olds (Gattis), former prospects (Decker, Matzek, Peacock), failed former #1 picks that are just hanging around for some reason (McNutt) and 16-year-old snot-nosed punks (Morgan).

#11 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Wil Myers (4), Tyler Austin (60), Daniel Corcino (99), Roman Quinn (129)
Unranked prospects: Vinny Catricala, Nick Delmonico, Alfredo Despaigne, David Freitas, Brad Miller, Victor Roache, Richie Shaffer, Jesse Winker, Rubby De La Rosa, Liam Hendricks

It's official: Wil Myers is now the highest ranked prospect the Infidels franchise has ever owned.  He has been this team's highest-ranked prospect for three years in a row now, and 2013 should be the year he finally breaks into the big leagues.  His minor league numbers speak for themselves: .303/.395/.522 in 381 games.  He should slot in well with his new MLB team in Tampa Bay, and the opportunity is there for him to finally seize a full-time position.  If all goes as planned, he'll be a fixture in Ravenswood for years to come.  Austin's career minor league numbers are even more impressive: .331/.406/.563 in 159 games.  Although he's not known for his speed, he also owns a 41/2 SB/CS ratio in his career.  With the Yankees lineup (especially their outfield) in such dire need of decent hitting, it's plausible that we might see Austin in pinstripes sooner rather than later.  With Wei-Yin Chen graduating to the big league roster and already making a contribution to the Infidels, Corcino has become the team's top pitching prospect.  His walk rate regressed last year after two straight years of improvement, so he's still a bit far away from becoming an Infidel.  Quinn is also years away from making an impact, as he began his professional career last season by showcasing his blazing speed, but lacking much power, and striking out far too often for the leadoff hitter he is trying to become.

#12 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Taijuan Walker (7), Gregory Polanco (56), Delino Deshields (106), Manny Banuelos (126)
Unranked prospects: Jeremy Baltz, Orlando Calixte, C.J. Cron, Maikel Franco, Reese Havens, Leon Landry, Taylor Lindsey, Carlos Sanchez, Brody Colvin, Michael Foltynewicz, Alex Torres

The 2011 BDBL farm draft was jam-packed with pitching talent.  Among the top pitching prospects selected in that draft were Carlos Martinez, Tyler Skaggs, Archie Bradley, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Trevor May and Zach Wheeler.  One of the draft's biggest bargains was South Carolina's selection of Taijuan Walker in the third round.  Last year, the 19-year-old posted an ugly 4.69 ERA in the Double-A Southern League, yet climbed up the ranking from #18 all the way to #7.  The fact that he was the youngest pitcher in the league -- by almost a year -- likely has something to do with that.  He will probably be the youngest pitcher in the league again this year, and he will face the added challenge of pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.  If he can hold his own at that level, the Sea Cats will have something special.  There were only three players selected in this year's farm draft that rank among the top 100, and Polanco (the 8th pick overall) is the highest ranked of the three.  It's surprising to see Cron, Sanchez and Torres among the unranked, as all three are highly-regarded prospects who posted impressive numbers last season.  They certainly deserve to be ranked higher than Banuelos.

#13 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Javier Baez (20), Andrew Heaney (82), Cory Seager (91), Ethan Martin (110), Joc Pederson (117), Joe Ross (119), Adam Morgan (122)
Unranked prospects: Barrett Barnes, Tommy Joseph, Daniel Robertson, Christian Villanueva, Brian Johnson, Pierce Johnson, Anthony Ranaudo, Walker Weickel

Last year was the first time in TWELVE YEARS the Black Sox didn't own at least one top-25 prospect.  It's good to see they're back on track.  Baez is difficult to evaluate from a numbers standpoint.  In his first full season last year, he hit an impressive .333/.383/.596 in 57 games at Low-A as a 19-year-old, but he also struck out 48 times while walking only 9 times.  And when the Cubs promoted him to High-A, he struggled (.188/.244/.400, with a 5/21 BB/K ratio) against more advanced pitching.  All the scouts and managers rave about this kid, so there's reason to believe the numbers will eventually justify the hype.  For now, though, he still looks extremely raw.  In a down year for polished pitching prospects, Heaney was selected among the top 10 picks of last year's MLB amateur draft.  He's a lefty who throws hard and has a killer slider, and he should move up the ladder quickly. Chicago's final top-100 prospect was also selected in the first round of the 2012 MLB draft.  Seager posted some impressive numbers (.309/.383/.520, 8 HR in 175 AB) as an 18-year-old in the Pioneer League.  But then, a lot of 18-year-olds post impressive numbers in the Pioneer League.  This year will be the true test of his abilities.

#14 Akron Ryche
Ranked prospects: Trevor Bauer (14), Kolten Wong (74), Eddie Rosario (99), Tyler Thornburg (122), Marcus Stroman (126)
Unranked prospects: Anthony Garcia, Greg Garcia, Travis Harrison, Tommy La Stella, Colin Moran, Dan Vogelbach, Erich Weiss, Jesse Hahn, Johnny Hellweg, Sean Nolin, Jake Thompson, Nick Tropeano

Baseball history is littered with prospects who had all the talent in the world, but let their bad attitudes get in the way of Hall of Fame careers.  Let's hope for DJ's sake that Bauer isn't one of them.  Given his immense talent and performance history, it's difficult to believe he was traded for a banjo-hitting shortstop, a middle reliever and a washed-up former prospect.  Either the Diamondbacks know something we don't or Cleveland pulled a DiStefano on them.  Wong was ranked by all four of our experts, ranging from a high of #47 (HQ) to a low of #96 (Law).  He's a solid and steady prospect who posted some solid-and-steady numbers (.287/.348/.405, 9 HR, 21 SB, 11 CS) in Double-A last year.  I guess that's not bad for a second baseman.  Frankly, if I had a choice between Wong or Rosario at second base, I'd choose Rosario.  He's a year younger, and has displayed some power (34 2B, 12 HR in 392 at-bats at Low-A last season) in his skillset.  In 218 minor league games, he's hitting .310/.362/.538.  Of the unranked prospects, Moran is ranked as the 4th best college prospect by Baseball America, and is generally considered to be one of the best "pure hitters" of the 2013 draft.  He will likely be listed among the ranked prospects a year from now.

#15 Granite State Lightning
Ranked prospects: Kyle Zimmer (27), Matt Davidson (69), Jonathan Schoop (93), Brett Jackson (96)
Unranked prospects: Zack Cox, Cody Decker, Josh Sale, Matt Szczur, Dillon Maples, Luis Mateo, Rafael Montero, Shohei Otani, Jon Pettibone, Blake Snell, Pat Venditte

Granite State spent most of the 2012 season stockpiling farm prospects, and yet they managed to fall in this ranking from #9 to #15.  Jackson fell from #37 to #96 after a horrendous year in which he whiffed 217 times in only 150 games.  59 of those K's came at the Major League level, and only two other players in MLB history struck out at a higher rate than Jackson in his 44-game trial.  Two other top prospects from last year's squad -- Mike Olt and Trevor May -- were dealt to Ryan Glander's (and everyone else's) favorite trading partner, Bobby Sylvester, in the deal that brought Josh Willingham to Granite State.  And Michael Choice (#97) was also traded to Sylvester last winter in exchange for Joel Hanrahan.  That leaves Kyle Zimmer -- the #1 pick in last year's mid-summer farm draft -- as this team's top prospect.  After being selected 5th overall in the 2012 MLB draft, Zimmer had an encouraging debut, allowing just 8 walks while striking out 42 in 39+ innings.  As an advanced college pitcher in an organization that is desperate for pitching, he should move very quickly.  Like Jackson, Davidson also strikes out too much, which means he'll never hit for a high average.  But like another Diamondbacks third baseman named Matt (Williams), Davidson will make up for his lack of getting on base by hitting an occasional homer.  The biggest wildcard on the Lightning farm is Otani.  For those who don't keep up with Japanese baseball, Otani was a senior in high school last season who announced that he was going to skip the Japanese draft and sign with an American team instead.  The usual furor and hype erupted, and he ended up being drafted and signed with a Japanese team.  He will come to the US eventually, but there are scouts who suggest that he wasn't even the most talented high school player in Japan last year.  As always, time will tell, but it will require a tremendous amount of patience and discipline to keep Otani on the farm roster for more than a year or two.

#16 New Milford Blazers
Ranked prospects: Taylor Guerrieri (46), Justin Nicolino (69), James Paxton (71), Lance McCullers (93)
Unranked prospects: Oscar Hernandez, Stefan Romero, Blake Swihart, Nick Williams, Trey Williams, Trey Ball, J.O. Berrios, Stephen Gonsalves, Adys Portillo, Enny Romero

As Anthony Peburn would be the first to tell you, the Blazers have had remarkable success drafting high school pitchers.  Normally, teenaged pitchers are the riskiest bets a team can make, but somehow Peburn has discovered the magic formula that has eluded all 30 MLB GM's.  It must be all the hours he logs personally scouting all those teenaged boys while touring high schools across the country in his windowless van.  Suffice it to say that Peburn fully expects Guerrieri to join the ranks of Kershaw, Moore, Anderson and Gallardo as his farm club's latest feel-good success story.  Just one year out of high school, Guerrieri posted a 1.04 ERA, with a 5/45 BB/K ratio, in the New York-Penn League.  There's no doubt that if he doesn't become the next great Blazers high school pitching success story, then surely Stephen Gonsalves will be.  Paxton fell 20 spots in the ranking this year after an injury-plagued 2012 season, and wasn't even ranked by Law.  Nicolino's career stats (185+ IP, 151 H, 6 HR, 34 BB, 192 K, 2.09 ERA) suggest that he become another lefty arm in the all-lefty New Milford rotation.  And rounding out the all-pitching Blazers prospects report, McCullers showed in his pro debut that he is a long way from contributing.  He wasn't ranked by HQ, Mayo or Law, but Baseball America was so high on him, they ranked him #50, which propelled his overall ranking into the top 100.

#17 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Nick Castellanos (23), Courtney Hawkins (66)
Unranked prospects: Bryce Brentz, Jeimer Candelario, Christian Colon, Marco Hernandez, Junior Lake, Christian Lopes, Jeremy Martinez, Joe Panik, Austin Romine, Austin Wilson, Gerardo Concepcion, Daniel Norris, Andrew Oliver

The Sphinx own one of those farm clubs where the unranked prospects seem more impressive than their ranked ones.  Castellanos earns rave reviews for being a "pure hitter", which is a rare label for a right-handed hitter.  He owns a .316 career batting average, but has hit only 70 doubles and 17 homers in over 1,000 at-bats, and has struck out 253 times with only 85 walks.  Frankly, I don't see the reason for the top-25 ranking.  Hawkins is one of those toolsy athletes, which means he looks great in a uniform, runs like a gazelle and puts on a show in batting practice, but has trouble translating those skills to actual game performance.  Prospects history is filled with similar "toolsy athletes" who never seem to pan out.  On the other hand, Panik doesn't have any one outstanding tool, and is considered to be a "scrappy" player who gets the most out of his limited ability.  I give him better odds than Hawkins for making an impact in the big leagues.  Brentz has posted back-to-back seasons with an 800+ OPS, and has a full season of Double-A under his belt.  And Wilson is another "toolsy" player considered to be one of the top hitters in the NCAA, and is projected to be a first-rounder this June.

#18 New York Giants
Ranked prospects: Austin Hedges (60), Casey Kelly (62), Kyle Crick (79), Adeiny Hechevarria (114), Henry Owens (115), Jose Iglesias (124)
Unranked prospects: Christian Bethancourt, Clint Coulter, D.J. Davis, Brandon Jacobs, Oscar Mercado, Tyler Naquin, Stephen Piscotty, Adonys Cardona, Chris Reed, Keyvius Sampson, Nick Travieso, Chris Withrow

Jim Doyle has employed a number of bizarre strategies over the years, even when it comes to his farm club.  We all remember his strategy of running his finger down the list of players selected in the most recent MLB amateur draft and taking the first player available.  In retrospect, that strategy proved to be amazingly effective, which only raises the question as to why he abandoned it.  This winter, Doyle employed perhaps his most bizarre strategy to date, as all six players he selected in the farm draft were players who were released by their teams at some point in the past year.  New York's top prospect, Hedges, was acquired in the 7th round of the 2011 draft, while he was still in high school.  He wasn't drafted until the 2nd round, and made his full-season debut last year, when he hit .279/.334/.451 in the Low-A Midwest League.  He's known mostly for his glove, so that batting line may be as good as it will get for him offensively.  Doyle hoped to strike high school gold again when he selected Mercado during last year's mid-summer farm draft, but since then, Mercado has dropped in the ranking, and is no longer considered to be a surefire first rounder.

#19 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Matt Barnes (43), Rymer Liriano (64), A.J. Cole (104), Alex Colome (113)
Unranked prospects: Franklin Barreto, Jairo Beras, Gustavo Cabrera, Mike Montgomery, Matt Wisler, Asher Wojciechowski

This is the 11th time in 14 years that the Rocks farm club has ranked among the bottom six in this report.  And yet, somehow, GM Mike Stein always seems to find someone from his farm club to make a contribution to his big club.  Last year, it was Norichika Aoki, who wasn't even ranked in this report a year ago.  This year, the team's top prospect is Barnes, who was a first-round draft pick in 2011.  In his first pro season last year, he posted some very impressive numbers (120 IP, 97 H, 6 HR, 29 BB, 133 K, 2.86 ERA), and could fly up this ranking over the next year.  Liriano was a breakout star in 2011, but regressed a bit last year in his first exposure to advanced pitching.  Nevertheless, he was ranked among the top 60 by three of our experts (and was left off of the BA list.)  Cole was also left out of the BA top 100 despite a very impressive season at the Low-A level (96 IP, 78 H, 7 HR, 19 BB, 102 K, 2.07 ERA.)  The problem is that he ended up repeating that level because he couldn't handle High-A (38 IP, 60 H, 7 HR, 10 BB, 31 K, 7.82 ERA.)  Stein went a little nuts last year, and attempted to corner the market on Latin American teenagers, which explains why there are so many of them littering his unranked group.  Those guys are the equivalent of BDBL lottery tickets.  99.9% of the time you'll end up with an Angel Villalona or Michael Ynoa, but once in every ten years or so, you can scratch off one of those tickets and find a Jurickson Profar underneath.

#20 Las Vegas Flamingoes
Ranked prospects: Tyler Skaggs (11), Robbie Erlin (103)
Unranked prospects: Bryan Anderson, Dante Bichette, Jr., Bruce Maxwell, James Ramsey, Matt Skole, Andrew Chafin, Taylor Jungmann, Matt Lolis, Roman Mendez, Sammy Solis, Chris Stratton, Brandon Workman

Skaggs could be the best pitcher to ever come out of the Vegas farm system.  The bar is pretty low there, as that honor currently belongs to Chien-Ming Wang.  Once Skaggs graduates from the farm, there isn't much remaining.  The most perplexing name on the unranked list is Maxwell, who was acquired last season in exchange for Hiroki Kuroda.  I still can't figure out why Johnny Bo made that deal.  A lot of the names on that list are players who were selected in the first round of the 2011 or 2012 MLB draft, but haven't (yet?) proven themselves worthy of anyone's top 100 list.  Ramsey, for example, was the 23rd overall pick last year, but hit just .229/.333/.314 in his Florida State League debut.  Bichette was a first round (supplemental) pick in 2011, but after an impressive debut in the Gulf Coast League in 2011, hit just .248/.322/.331 in the Sally League last year.  Chafin was also a first round supplemental pick in 2011, but struggled (4.93 ERA in 122+ IP) in the California League last year.  Either Johnny Bo has an amazing amount of patience, dedication and loyalty to his farm players or he just hasn't been paying close attention and needs to do some house cleaning.

#21 Allentown Ridgebacks
Ranked prospects: Gary Sanchez (34), Trevor Story (83)
Unranked prospects: Nate Freiman, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Manuel Margot, Brandon Martin, Renato Nunez, Jonathan Villar, Jose Vicente Campos, Ty Hensley, Seth Maness, Domingo Tapia, Joe Wieland

No team fell further in the ranking this year than the Ridgebacks.  Of course, much of that has to do with the fact that their top prospect from last year, Mike Trout, graduated to the big leagues, where he enjoyed one of the greatest seasons in baseball history and became an instant MVP candidate.  So I guess Allentown can deal with the temporary dip in their farm ranking.  As most of us know, GM Tom DiStefano has developed a top-secret proprietary statistical formula for identifying the top prospects in baseball.  That formula seems to have generated more misses than hits in recent years, with the exceptions of Manny Machado (a 3rd round pick in 2010) and Allentown's #1 pick in 2012, Story.  In his first full season, he hit .277/.367/.505 with 43 doubles and 18 homers in the Sally League.  Through the years, most of the top prospects on the Allentown farm (Trout, Stanton, Braun, Lincecum, etc.) were acquired via trade.  That applies to the team's current top prospect, Sanchez, who was picked up from the Salem Cowtippers organization last year in the deal that brought Jair Jurrjens, Carlos Pena and Rafael Betancourt to Salem.  Of all the players on the unranked list, the one most likely to be ranked next year is Gallo, who posted the highest OPS (1.168) of any player in baseball last year.  Granted, it was only the rookie-level Arizona League, but it's still impressive.

#22 Dieppe Marauders
Ranked prospects: Allen Webster (67), Roberto Osuna (106)
Unranked prospects: Marc Krauss, Hunter Morris, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Peraza, Sebastian Valle, B.A. Vollmuth, Miguel de los Santos, Nestor Molina, Tyler Pike, Felipe Rivero, Victor Sanchez, Nick Sawyer, Jose Urena

This is the fourth year in a row this franchise has ranked among the bottom four in the Farm Report.  As badly as John Duel left this team's active roster, its farm team may have been left in even worse shape.  Given the fact that new owner Don Woodworth has only had three months to build a farm team from scratch, it's impressive to see two ranked players on this list.  The team's top-ranked prospect, Webster, was part of the package Dieppe received in the Madison Bumgarner deal last winter.  Although it seems like he's been around forever (due in part to the fact that he has been mistakenly drafted in every farm draft we've held over the past two or three years), Webster is still just 22 years old.  He still has some problems with his command (a lifetime walk rate of nearly 4 per 9), but he still has that combination of velocity and groundball-inducing sinker that scouts and analysts adore.  Osuna was Woodworth's first selection in this year's farm draft, at #17 overall.  At the tender age of just 17, Osuna held his own at two different rookie levels last season, though it will likely be a long time before we see him in the BDBL. 

#23 Corona Confederates
Ranked prospects: None
Unranked prospects: Cody Asche, Tim Beckham, Bobby Borchering, Hank Conger, Anthony Hewitt, Luis Jimenez, Jiovanni Mier, Rougned Odor, Brandon Snyder, Matt Sweeney, Chad James, Chen Lee, Nick Maronde, John Stilson, Jason Stoffel

There are 131 players in baseball who were ranked by at least one of our experts.  Given that there are 24 teams in the BDBL, that averages out to 5.5 ranked players per team.  It's rare, then, to see a BDBL farm team without at least one ranked player.  In fact, this has only happened twice in the past 13 seasons.  This year, there are two such teams.  The Confederates farm is a mixture of former top-100 prospects (Beckham, Conger, Snyder, Sweeney) and former first-round draft picks (Beckham, Borchering, Conger, Hewitt, Mier, Snyder, Stilson).  Normally, the track record of success for top-100 prospects and first-round draft picks is pretty high.  The problem is the word "former."  It has been years since any of these prospects were considered to have a bright future.  If I were forced to pick one player from this farm club who might be ranked next year, I'd have to go with Asche.  A fourth round pick in 2011, he hit .349/.378/.447 at High-A, and continued raking (.300/.360/.513) after he was promoted to Double-A.  Like a few of the farm clubs mentioned above, the Confederates farm is in desperate need of some housecleaning -- and a little attention.

#23 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: None
Unranked prospects: Kris Bryant, Michael Conforto, Aaron Judge, Mike Mahtook, Hiroyuki Nakajima, Matt Olson, Rio Ruiz, Trayce Thompson, Miguel Almonte, Edwar Cabrera, Jose Rafael DePaula, Kyuji Fujikawa, Justin Grimm, David Holmberg, Mark Montgomery, Paco Rodriguez

For 11 years, the Salem farm club never appeared lower than #10 in this ranking, but that all changed three years ago.  This is now the third year in a row Salem has ranked among the bottom five, and second year in which they've ranked in the bottom two.  It's not as if Salem hasn't had any success in acquiring farm players during that time, though.  Carlos Correa (#22), Mike Olt (#31), Gary Sanchez (#34), Albert Almora (#36), Addison Russell (#40), Brian Goodwin (#55), Jake Marisnick (#65), Luis Heredia (#84) and Michael Choice (#97) were all Salem property at some point in the past three years.  The problem is that they were all traded to help finance a team that hasn't managed to win a division title in any of those years.  Although none of the players on this year's farm is ranked, there are several players who are likely to make an impact in the BDBL next season, and a few others who are likely to be ranked a year from now.

Among the former group, Nakajima will be the starting shortstop for Oakland this year, and with Jose Reyes departing for free agency, he has a good chance of filling that vacancy.  Fujikawa has been the best reliever in Japan for many years.  He owns a career ERA of just 1.36 in nearly 370 innings in the NPL, with an amazing 510 strikeouts.  Why he was excluded from every one of our expert's lists is a mystery.  Montgomery (minor league career 1.65 ERA in 92+ innings, with 150 K's) is also likely to be a contributing member of Salem's bullpen next season, as is Rodriguez (20 IP, 11 H, 0 HR, 6 BB, 32 K in his pro debut last year.)  Grimm (1.72 ERA in 84 IP at Double-A last year), Cabrera (2.94 ERA in 98 IP at Double-A) and Holmberg (3.60 ERA in 95 IP at Double-A) should also graduate to the big club within the next year.  That potentially gives the Salem farm club six players from the farm club who may contribute to the big club as early as next season.  Not bad for a last-place farm team.  As for players who may be ranked next season, both Bryant and Judge are considered to be potential top-10 draft picks this June, and should be ranked among the top 100 next season.  Olson (.282/.345/.520 in the AZL) and Ruiz (.271/.361/.412 in the GCL) are both 2012 draft picks capable of making the leap into rank-worthiness.  And remember the name Miguel Almonte.  He is not only capable of being ranked at this time next year, but he could be among the top pitching prospects in the game by then.