March, 2007

2007 BDBL Farm Report

This is the eighth year I've published this report, so by now you all know how this works.  This year, our esteemed panel of prospect experts includes Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com), Deric McKamey (Baseball HQ), Bryan Smith (SI), Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus) and John Sickels (minorleagueball.com.)  I assign 100 points to the top prospect on each list, 99 for the #2 guy, and so on.  I then tally up all the points and make fun of the teams that score the lowest.

In the past, I've double-counted Sickels' lists, because he has issued two separate rankings (one for hitters, another for pitchers) for the past several years.  But this year, I've decided to give the players on his lists the same weighting they would have if Sickels weren't such a big ol' bag of wuss and issued one master list like everyone else in the world.  Other than that, the process hasn't changed.

The question you may be asking yourself is: What's the point of this?  I know that's the question I ask every year when I spend countless hours putting this report together.  After all, this study doesn't really reflect the quality of a team's young players.  (That's something I attempted to do last April.)  Nor does this study even truly reflect the quality of a team's farm system, since it doesn't account for high school or college players.  Nor does it include Japanese talent still playing in Japan.  Nor does it accurately represent the Japanese "rookies" now playing in the U.S. -- at least, not consistently, since some prospect experts include these players in their rankings and some don't.  Nor does it include minor leaguers who graduated to MLB and lost their "prospect" status, but then returned to the minor leagues for two years, like B.J. Upton and...well, B.J. Upton.

So what on earth does this study prove?

Nothing really.  It's just for fun.  It's a snapshot in time, showing how the players on your team who are considered "prospects" compare to other team's "prospects" at this instant in time.  Nothing more, nothing less.

Does a high or low ranking in this study really mean anything in terms of wins and losses?  Well, last year, I showed that there has been a significant correlation between farm ranking and team performance.  But does this mean that great farm systems make great teams?  Or does it mean that great teams are more likely to have great farm systems?  Who knows.  If nothing else, this annual report gives us something to talk about on the message board, so it has some value, right?

#1 Los Altos Undertakers
Ranked prospects: Alex Gordon (1), Justin Upton (8), Adam Miller (15), Mike Pelfrey (21), Matt Garza (28), Nick Adenhart (29), Hunter Pence (30), Elvis Andrus (52), Mark Rogers (94), Chris Marrero (102), Daniel Bard (105), Chris Nelson (124)
Unranked prospects: Lars Anderson, Michael Bourn, Jason Heyward, Jeff Mathis, Matt Wieters, Bryce Cox, J. Brent Cox, Matt Harvey, James Hoey

For the second year in a row, the Undertakers check in at #1 to the surprise of no one.  How dominant are these Undertakers?  Last year, they graduated Jared Weaver, Jeremy Sowers, Rickie Weeks, Josh Johnson, Aaron Heilman, Jonathan Broxton and Jeremy Hermida from their farm club...and yet they STILL rank #1!

Gordon (a former Cowtipper, by the way) is a consensus top-two prospect according to every person on the planet not named Anthony Peburn.  Despite his sub-par performance, Upton remains a top-ten prospect in the minds of five of our six experts (with Goldstein ranking him at #29.)  Evidently because of his MLB service time, Garza was not considered for McKamey's list.  Had he qualified, the Undertakers' lead in this race would be a lot more than 279 points.

The Undertakers blew away the competition on this page last year, scoring almost 1,000 points more than the #2-ranked team, so their lead has shrunken quite a bit.  With Gordon, Pelfrey, Garza, Pence, and possibly Miller all set to graduate in 2007, it's possible that their #1 streak could end.  But with Wieters, Heyward and Harvey all predicted to become early first-round draft picks in June, the next wave of Undertakers phenoms is on its way.

#2 Chicago Black Sox
Ranked prospects: Yovani Gallardo (14), Evan Longoria (16), Fernando Martinez (22), Felix Pie (20), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (41), Travis Snider (47), Billy Rowell (48), Donald Veal (50), Michael Bowden (67), Chris Volstad (69), Dustin Pedroia (88), Craig Hansen (96), Drew Stubbs (110)
Unranked prospects: Bryan Anderson, Joaquin Arias, Joe Benson, Nick Hundley, John Mayberry, Jr., Brayan Pena, Sean Tracey

The last time the Black Sox farm system ranked this high, the franchise began back-to-back 100-win seasons.  Coincidence?  Maybe.  This year, Chicago owns no fewer than 13 ranked prospects.  Three of this team's top-50 prospects -- Longoria, Rowell and Snider -- came to the Black Sox via the Chapter Four free agent acquisition period last season, which is an incredibly impressive feat in this day and age.  Three other top-50's -- Martinez, Gallardo and Saltalamacchia -- were acquired via trade this winter.

So that's SIX top-50 prospects added within the past nine months.  Talk about overhauling an entire farm system in a hurry!

#3 Marlboro Hammerheads
Ranked prospects: Phil Hughes (3), James Loney (36), Franklin Morales (39), Eric Hurley (42), Joey Votto (49), Phil Humber (53), Troy Patton (57), Jeff Clement (58), Chris Iannetta (59), Humberto Sanchez (61), Brandon Morrow (76), Jonathan Sanchez (83), Ryan Tucker (101), Brent Lillibridge (106), Pedro Beato (122), Neftali Feliz (130)
Unranked prospects: Jason Botts, Larry Broadway, Jon Jay, Aaron Miller, Nick Masset, Juan Salas

With sixteen ranked prospects, the Hammerheads lead the league in that category.  They also rose 13 places in the ranking this year, which is tops in the league.  All of which makes this the best Marlboro farm system ever.

Hughes is the #1-ranked pitcher in baseball according to our panel of prospect gurus (though Daisuke Matsuzaka didn't qualify for most lists), but he was also the only Marlboro prospect ranked among the top 30 by any one of our experts (not counting Sickels and his cheesy 50/50 lists.)

Many of Marlboro's prospects are capable of making the leap to the big leagues by the end of this season.  In fact, of the ranked prospects, only Morrow, Tucker, Beato and Feliz are unlikely to make the jump.  So it is quite possible that -- barring a few dozen trades for top prospects that should be expected, given this GM's history -- the Hammerheads could rank at the bottom of this study next year at this time.

#4 Kansas Law Dogs
Ranked prospects: Brandon Wood (5), Andy LaRoche (18), Jose Tabata (24), Carlos Gonzalez (25), Adam Jones (34), Ryan Sweeney (68), Neil Walker (80)
Unranked prospects: Kosuke Fukudome, Esmailyn Gonzalez, Kyle Orr, Brian Bannister, Scott Lewis, Greg Miller, Oscar Rivera, Koji Uehara

With Uehara, Fukudome and Gonzalez, the Law Dogs quite possibly snagged the three biggest bargains of the farm draft this winter.  Unfortunately for Kansas, none of them count in this study.  Both Uehara and Fukudome have the ability to make an immediate impact in the 2009 BDBL season, which is something you probably can't say about any other prospect drafted this past winter (with the exception of #1 pick Kei Igawa.)  And Gonzalez has the potential to become an all-star shortstop if his scouting reports are to be believed.

With David Wright entrenched at third base for the Law Dogs through the 2016 season, Kansas has some mighty-fine trade bait in Wood and LaRoche (two of the top three third base prospects in baseball.)  And Tabata, Gonzalez and Jones could make a nifty outfield in 2011 or so.

#5 Salem Cowtippers
Ranked prospects: Cameron Maybin (6), Jay Bruce (7), Luke Hochevar (26), Carlos Gomez (72), Brad Lincoln (74), Brian Barton (80), Eric Campbell (98)
Unranked prospects: Pedro Alvarez, J.P. Arencibia, Gorkys Hernandez, Justin Jackson, Josh Vitters, Ryan Braun (P), Santiago Casilla, Manuel Corpas, Francisco Cruceta, Joshua Fields, Rick Porcello

For the eighth year in a row, the Salem Cowtippers own a top ten farm system.  No other team can make such a claim.  Thank you, thank you.

If not for a couple of trades made with the Corona Confederates in 2006, the Salem farm system would rank a lowly 13th in this study.  (So, thanks, Ed!)  But then, if it hadn't been for a series of trades whereby the Cowtippers traded Alex Gordon (1), Delmon Young (2), Adam Miller (15), Fernando Martinez (22), Jacoby Ellsbury (31), Ian Stewart (39), Jeff Clement (58), Travis Buck (65) and Dexter Fowler (66), among many others, Salem would be kings of the BDBL farm system universe right now.  But such is the price you pay for the loving adulation of your fellow owners, and the fame and admiration that comes with being universally regarded as the Johnny Appleseed of the BDBL.  It is the cross I bear.

Next year, the Cowtippers' reign should continue, with projected first-rounders Arencibia, Jackson, Vitters, Fields and Porcello joining the party.

#6 Allentown Ridgebacks
Ranked prospects: Tim Lincecum (11), Billy Butler (12), Ryan Braun (20), Elijah Dukes (71), Matt Albers (86), Jamie Garcia (92)
Unranked prospects: Jeff Bianchi, Travis Denker, Yuliesky Gourriel, Kelly Johnson, Kala Kaaihue, Mark Reynolds, Carlos Triunfel, Andrew Brackman, Tommy Mendoza, Andrew Sonnanstine

Thanks to a pre-season trade with the Ravenswood Infidels, in which Lincecum was acquired, the Ridgebacks' farm system returns to the top ten after a year's absence.  Oddly enough, the only person who doesn't have Lincecum ranked among the top 30 prospects in baseball is Tom!

Butler became somewhat of a controversial prospect after Peburn ranked him #1 on his prospect list last month.  Tom followed by ranking him #4, and I ranked him #28.  For what it's worth, there seems to be just as much disagreement over Butler among our panel of experts.  McKamey (#9) and Smith (#9) seem to agree with Peburn and DiStefano, while Baseball America (#25) and Goldstein (#21) seem to agree with me.

DiStefano and Peburn also agree that Dukes is a top-20 prospect, as he ranks #18 and #16 on their lists, respectively.  But no other expert (including myself) ranked him higher than #39.

#7 Villanova Mustangs
Ranked prospects: Chris B. Young (8), Chuck Lofgren (35), Jacob McGee (46), Carlos Carrasco (54), Trevor Crowe (70), Matt Harrison (95), Anthony Swarzak (114)
Unranked prospects: Kory Casto, Van Pope, Matt Tuiasosopo, Edgar Garcia, Juan Gutierrez, Juan Morillo, Jon Niese, Zach Segovia, Ty Taubenheim

After graduating Chad Billingsley, Andy Marte, Andre Ethier, Adam Wainwright, Casey Kotchman, Nick Swisher, Jesse Crain, Joe Blanton, Curtis Granderson and Brian McCann over the past two years, this farm system was bound to fall in the ranking at some point.  Given how much talent I just listed, a "fall" to #7 isn't all that bad.

Leave it up to Tony Chamra to trade a center field prospect (Granderson) in a year in which he wins the BDBL championship, only to get a BETTER center field prospect (Young) thrown in on the trade, "just to make it even."  Granderson never ranked higher than #50 in this study, while Young looks every bit like the Mike Cameron clone he was touted to be.  Young should make an impact on the 'Nova lineup as early as next year.

Crowe -- who ranked #57-64 by McKamey, Smith, BA and Goldstein -- was acquired this past winter in exchange for a pitcher with a 5.37 CERA.  Hmm...maybe Chamra has picked up a Jedi mind trick or two from his mentor, Tom.

#8 Manchester Irish Rebels
Ranked prospects: Andrew McCutchen (13), Scott Elbert (22), Erick Aybar (51), Daric Barton (56), Angel Villalona (97), Kurt Suzuki (120)
Unranked prospects: Jeremy Brown, John Drennan, C.J. Henry, Austin Jackson, Jed Lowrie, Clint Everts, Yadel Marti, David Pauley, Chris Resop, Kazumi Saitoh

After an unprecedented streak of six years rising in the ranking of this study, the Irish Rebels have finally fallen, from #2 last year to #8 this year.  The reason?  Well, there are several, actually.

First, the graduations of Matt Cain (#22 last year), Nick Markakis (24), Cole Hamels (59) and Adam Loewen (75).  Then, the trades of Jarrod Saltalamacchia (17) and Eric Campbell (159).  And finally, the disappointing regression of Barton, who fell from #21 last year to #56.  On the plus side, though, McCutchen is the highest-ranked position player in the Manchester farm system since Barton's #13 ranking back in 2005.  And despite walking 85 batters in 146 innings last year, Elbert has risen in the rankings from #52 all the way to #22.  Also, the hype over 2007 #1 farm pick Villalona is reaching Toe Nash proportions.

#9 Bear Country Jamboree
Ranked prospects: Homer Bailey (4), John Danks (32), Jason Hirsch (33), Tyler Clippard (102), Alberto Callaspo (106)
Unranked prospects: Norichika Aoki, Emilio Bonifacio, Aaron Cunningham, Travis Ishikawa, Bryan LaHair, Cliff Pennington, Nate Schierholtz, Ryan Feierabend, Henry Owens, Mark Pawalek, Ricky Romero, Merkin Valdez

A year ago, Francisco Liriano was the top Bear Country prospect, and the #4-ranked prospect in all of baseball.  He then went on to become a major league half-season sensation.  This year, that same honor goes to Bailey.  Could we see history repeat itself?  Of course, in true TINSTAAPP tradition, Liriano then injured himself in late September, and will miss the entire 2007 MLB season.  So let's hope for Matt's sake that history doesn't repeat itself.

The Jamboree have a wealth of good, young arms, but not much on the offensive side.  Callaspo (think Luis Castillo without the speed) is the team's top hitting prospect, and there really isn't any hitter among the unranked group who is a cinch to join next year's class.  Fortunately for Jamboree fans, the reason why their favorite team has no hitting prospects on the farm is because they all graduated last year (namely, Matt Kemp, Kendry Morales, Corey Hart and Josh Willingham.)

#10 Atlanta Fire Ants
Ranked prospects: Ian Stewart (39), Jeff Niemann (43), Clay Buchholz (45), Sean West (73), Wade Davis (75), Blake DeWitt (84)
Unranked prospects: Lorenzo Cain, Paul McAnulty, Xavier Paul, Guillermo Quiroz, Delwyn Young, Daniel Griffin, Daniel Haigwood, Jeremy Hellickson, Gaby Hernandez, Jair Jurrjens, Oswaldo Sosa

The Fire Ants rose 11 spots in the ranking this year, putting them in the top ten for only the second time in eight years, and tying their franchise-best ranking from 2005.  How did they do it?  For starters, their acquisition of Stewart (who fell from #4 overall in 2005, to #15 last year, all the way to #39 this year) gave them their best hitting prospect since Jeff Francoeur.  Niemann and Buchholz were also picked up via trade last year, giving them three top-50 prospects, all acquired via trade.

Four of Atlanta's six ranked prospects make their living by repeatedly hurling a rubber ball wrapped in string and sewn together by two pieces of horsehide, so they get slapped with the TINSTAAPP warning label.  And since three of those guys have yet to pitch above the Low-A level, they get extra large labels.  However, it is impressive that, as a group, those four pitchers averaged 7.5 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in over 462 innings.

#11 Wapakoneta Hippos
Ranked prospects: Andrew Miller (17), Colby Rasmus (38), Glen Perkins (79), Joba Chamberlain (87), Ubaldo Jimenez (89), Dustin Nippert (114)
Unranked prospects: Jeff Baker, Joe Koshansky, Matt Sulentic, Deolis Guerra, Charlie Haeger, Shawn Hill, Matt Maloney, Mark McCormick, Hayden Penn, Wes Reomer

Way back in March of 2003, the Allentown Ridgebacks acquired a pimply-faced, 18-year-old southpaw out of high school as a free agent.  GM Tom DiStefano then spent the next several weeks shamelessly pimping this young man in an effort to trade him before his arm fell off.  Two chapters later, it worked.  Despite the fact that this kid had opted to go to college instead of signing a pro contract, DiStefano was able to include him in a FOUR-TEAM, FOURTEEN-PLAYER trade that ultimately netted DiStefano a pretty decent hitter named Barry Bonds.  Bonds won an MVP that season -- and the following season as well -- and nearly carried the Ridgebacks to their second consecutive BDBL championship title (if not for the double-duty heroics of Clay Condrey.)

Meanwhile, that pimply-faced high school senior was eventually traded once again just days later, to the Wapakoneta Hippos, in exchange for the immortal Jason Simontacchi.  That winter, the kid was unceremoniously released.

Fast-forward to June of 2005.  That pimply-faced kid is now a college sophomore, and his name is being thrown around as a possible first-rounder in the 2006 MLB amateur draft.  The Hippos used their first pick of the free agent pick-up period to acquire him.  And that, my friends, is how Andrew Miller became the #1 prospect on the Hippos today.  As radio legend Paul Harvey might say, "And now, you know...the rest...of the story."

The same day that Miller was picked up with pick #1, the Hippos picked up their #2 prospect, Rasmus.  (Note: Trevor Crowe was their #3 farm pick that day.)  Not a bad day for the Wapakoneta farm.

#12 South Carolina Sea Cats
Ranked prospects: Reid Brignac (19), Adam Lind (44), Will Inman (82), Cedric Hunter (118)
Unranked prospects: Etanislao Abreu, Adrian Cardenas, Brent Clevlen, Jonathan Herrera, Brandon Jones, Chris Lubanski, Eric Reed, Justin Smoak, Chad Tracy, Tony Butler, Ian Kennedy, Radhames Liz, Tim Norton, Yusmeiro Petit, Jordan Tata

The Sea Cats dropped seven spots in the ranking, thanks to the trades of Lastings Milledge and Jon Lester last summer, along with the fall from grace by Petit (#31 last year.)  On the plus side, Brignac rose from the ranks of the unranked all the way to the top 20, thanks to a monster season in which he hit .321/.376/.539 with 32 doubles and 24 homers over two levels.  This monster season came on the heels of a season in which he hit just .264/.319/.416, with 131 strikeouts in 127 games.  So this is clearly a prime example of patience being rewarded.

Lind was a savvy Chapter Four pick-up by the Sea Cats last season.  Not only was he stolen off the free agent scrap heap, but he wasn't even South Carolina's first selection!  Inman posted some sick numbers in the Sally League last year (110+ IP, 75 H, 3 HR, 24 BB, 134 K, 1.71 ERA.)  If he were left-handed, 6'6" and threw 95 mph, he would undoubtedly be considered among the top three pitching prospects in baseball right now.  But he's right-handed, 6-feet-even, and throws 89-92.  Therefore, he wasn't even ranked by Mayo or Smith, and barely made Sickels' top-50 pitchers list (#43.)

#13 Cleveland Rocks
Ranked prospects: Troy Tulowitzki (10), Josh Fields (55), Nolan Reimold (117), Brad Snyder (130), Kyle Drabek (134)
Unranked prospects: Tyler Greene, John Jaso, Matt McBride, Juan Miranda, Mike Morse, Matt Moses, Shane Robinson, Dustin McGowan, Tony Sipp

This is rarified air for the Rocks franchise, as this #13 ranking is their best ever.  In fact, prior to last season, the Rocks had never ranked higher than 20th in this study!  And it is all due to one man: Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulo was selected with the very last pick (in the 10th round) of the 2005 farm draft, and since then has risen to become the #10 prospect in baseball according to our panel of experts.  Among the players selected ahead of Tulo by the Rocks during that draft: Kyle Waldrop, Zach Putnam, Brad Baker, Justin Bristow and Lee Gronkiewicz.  Who knew?

#14 Las Vegas Flamingos
Ranked prospects: Delmon Young (2), Gio Gonzalez (77), Greg Reynolds (111)
Unranked prospects: Wladimir Balentien, Eric Duncan, Chase Headley, Jeff Keppinger, J.R. Towles, Matt Blank, Lance Broadway, Zach Jackson, Josh Outman, Royce Ring, Dennis Sarfate

Delmon Young was the undisputed #1 prospect in baseball -- by unanimous vote -- a year ago.  Since then, he's hit .316/.341/.474 at Triple-A, and .317/.336/.476 in the major leagues.  So why has he fallen to the #2 spot?  Ask the poor replacement ump who played the role of Rodney King to Young's LA cop.  It seems the Albert Belle comparisons were more accurate than anyone had imagined.

Of course, that's not the only reason for the "fall" to #2.  Young's power also mysteriously disappeared, as he hit just 11 homers last year (compared to 26 in 2005 and 25 in 2004.)  And his plate discipline took a dive as well, as he walked only 16 times in 468 at-bats last year -- including only one walk in 126 at-bats at the MLB level.  Frankly, the fact that he still ranks #2 despite all those flaws speaks volumes about his overall talent and potential.

With Young graduating to the big leagues this year, and the unranked group filled with names that have either fallen off the prospect radar (or who never made a blip on the radar in the first place), the Flamingos are a solid bet to rank #24 at this time next year.

#15 New Milford Blazers
Ranked prospects: Clayton Kershaw (26), Kevin Kouzmanoff (62), Eric Patterson (106), Jeremy Jeffress (118), Travis Wood (127), Micah Owings (130)
Unranked prospects: Michael Burgess, Alexi Casilla, Akinori Iwamura, Brett Anderson, Cha Seung Baek, Jorge Campillo, Yoslan Herrera, Young-Il Jung, Jeff Karstens, Kasey Kiker, Hideki Okajima, Jae Kuk Ryu, Josh Sharpless, Cole St. Clair, Aaron Thompson, Colten Willems

If the Blazers are ever going to dig out of this giant clusterfuck they've created for themselves, it will have to begin with the farm system.  And right now, that farm system is considered to be below-average by our panel of experts.  I've already written enough about the absurdity of ranking an 18-year-old pitcher with 37 innings of professional baseball among the top 30 (never mind the top 10, as Peburn has done), so there's no need to rehash that topic.  Right?

For all intents and purposes, the Blazers paid $19 million for Kouzmanoff (#62 prospect in baseball) and Iwamura (unranked) this past winter.  Probably not the most efficient use of their limited resources, but both should help this franchise almost immediately.  Although Iwamura will likely strike out at an Incavigliesque pace, he may also hit somewhere around .270/.330/.450 and play above-average defense at two different infield positions.  The reviews on Kouzmanoff are somewhat mixed, though Baseball Prospectus has the 25-year-old hitting a healthy .290/.348/.499 this season, which would make him a tremendous bargain.  Of course, it would take a few years before the Blazers could save as much money as they spent ($8.5 million) to get him.

#16 Southern Cal Slyme
Ranked prospects: Jacoby Ellsbury (31), Chris Parmelee (93), Brett Sinkbeil (102), Colin Balester (126), Joey Devine (127)
Unranked prospects: Tyler Colvin, Jeff Larish, Jason Place, Nick Stavinoha, Robert Stock, Blake Beavan, Christian Garcia, Shane Lindsay, Adam Ottavino, Zech Zinicola

Last year, the Slyme ranked 11th in this study, but had one of the best rookie classes in the league with Ryan Zimmerman, Anibal Sanchez, Hanley Ramirez and Dioner Navarro.  Could this current crop of Slyme make fools out of our expert panel again?  Don't count on it.  That doesn't happen often.

Of the five ranked prospects, only Ellsbury was unanimously ranked by all six of our experts.  Parmelee, who bears a striking resemblance to "Haywire" from the series "Prison Break," and has just 22 at-bats above rookie ball on his resum�, was ranked by McKamey (#84), BA (#94) and Goldstein (#90), and clocked in at #38 on Sickels' top-50 hitters list.  Sinkbeil, who looks like puberty hasn't kicked in yet, has just 40 innings of experience above short-season rookie ball.  So by the time we see those guys make an impact on the Slyme roster, Hillary Clinton will be serving her second term as president.

#17 Nashville Funkadelic
Ranked prospects: Brandon Erbe (59), Daisuke Matsuzaka (62), Yunel Escobar (91), Pat Neshek (130), Chi-Lung Hu (135)
Unranked prospects: Rajai Davis, Jesus Flores, Josh Hamilton, Eddy Martinez-Esteve, Brandon Moss, Ray Olmedo, Jason Stokes, Casey Hoorelbeke, Ryan Ketchner, Scott Mathieson, David Price, Billy Sadler, Alay Soler, Joakim Soria, Jon Switzer

The Funkadelic are a prime example of a team whose ranking has nothing whatsoever to do with the quality of its farm system.  For starters, Matsuzaka's ranking at #62 is a reflection of the fact that only two of our six experts ranked him at all (#1 by Baseball America, and #3 by McKamey.)  Had he been ranked by all six, he would undoubtedly be among the top three prospects in baseball overall.  Of course, he's also a prime example of the whole long-term ceiling vs. immediate impact debate.  No "prospect" in baseball will have more of an impact on his MLB team this season -- and over the next three seasons, minimum -- than Matsuzaka.  And in the BDBL, where pitching has become more valuable than a six-pack of warm Budweiser at a high school party, Matsuzaka may very well be the most valuable commodity in the league right now.

Then there is Neshek, whose numbers the past two years are Eckersleyesque.  In 2005, Neshek allowed just 69 hits in 82+ innings at Double-A, and owned a 21/95 BB/K ratio.  Last year, at Triple-A, he allowed just 41 hits and 14 walks in 60 innings, with 87 whiffs.  Then, at the MLB level, he owned a 6/53 BB/K ratio in 37 innings.  He could be a dominant reliever over the next several years, and yet only one of our experts (Sickels) ranked him among the top prospects in baseball (at #49 out of 50 pitchers.)

Finally, there is David Price, who is the odds-on favorite to be the #1 pick in this year's MLB amateur draft.  He's been favorably compared to Andrew Miller (but with far more control), who is currently the #17 prospect in the game.

Just for kicks, if we ranked Price at #17, Matsuzaka at #3, and Neshek at #60, the Funk would have a total of 1,565 points -- good for #8 in this study.  To me, that's a far more accurate ranking for this farm system.

#18 San Antonio Broncs
Ranked prospects: Travis Buck (65), Edinson Volquez (85), Garrett Olson (121)
Unranked prospects: Jeff Baisley, Kevin Frandsen, Balbino Fuenmayor, J.R. House, Ryan Mount, David Murphy, Omar Quintanilla, Humberto Quintero, Max Sapp, Trevor Cahill, J.D. Durbin, Ben Hendrickson, Stephen Marek, Marcus McBeth, Kyle McCulloch, Davis Romero

Two years ago, during the Chapter Four trading deadline, the Broncs were planning to release Chin-Hui Tsao after it was revealed that he would need yet another shoulder operation.  Proving the theory that it never hurts to ask, Greg Newgard posted Tsao's availability on the Selling forum, and sure enough, he found a taker: me.  In exchange for Tsao (whom I then released less than 48 hours later), the Broncs received the player who is now their #1 prospect: Travis Buck.

Volquez's route to the Broncs was similar in many ways, as he originally came from the Cowtippers organization, and was acquired solely because his team (the Bear Country Jamboree) was planning to release him.  You know what they say about one man's trash...

The unranked list includes several players who were once top-100 prospects, including House, Murphy, Hendrickson and Durbin.  But at first glance, none of the unranked prospects seems to be a shoo-in to join the ranked next year.

#19 Sylmar Padawans
Ranked prospects: Dexter Fowler (66), Cesar Carillo (111)
Unranked prospects: Michael Durant, Brad Eldred, Cody Johnson, Miguel Perez, Martin Prado, Geovany Soto, Jose Arrendondo, Sean Burnett, Travis Chick, Jose Garcia, Richie Gardner, Jason Hammel, Sean O'Sullivan, Vince Perkins, Chaz Roe, Chuck Tiffany

The Pads have ranked either #19 or #20 in half of the farm studies I've done over the past eight years.  The highest ranking this franchise has ever achieved in this study was in 2003, when they ranked #4, thanks to Francisco Rodriguez (#7), Dewon Brazelton (#34), Mike Restovich (#36), Todd Linden (#47) and Sean Burnett (#49), among others.  At the time, I wrote, "This is the first time (Sylmar's) farm has ranked in the top half of the BDBL, and it may be the last time for a while."  Oddly enough, that prediction has stood the test of time.

Both of Sylmar's ranked prospects came through trades made this winter.  Fowler was acquired from the Cowtippers (along with Garcia) in exchange for Mike Cameron, and Carillo was one of the eight players involved in the controversial Roy Halladay trade with Ravenswood.  This year, Hammel (#145 last year) and Tiffany (#122) fell out of the rankings altogether.  The year before, Gardner (#55) fell out.  Usually, you want to see your unranked prospects joining the ranked, rather than the other way around.

#20 New Hope Badgers
Ranked prospects: Kevin Slowey (64), Jimmy Barthmaier (125), Javier Herrera (129)
Unranked prospects: Kyle Blanks, Charlie Fermaint, Cole Gillespie, Wes Hodges, Michael Hollimon, Cesar Nicolas, Shawn Riggans, J.B. Tucker, Travis Blackley, James Happ, Anthony Lerew, Scott Mitchinson, Chris Narveson, Jamie Richmond

We still have four teams to go, but it's already getting pretty ugly.  Slowey posted some phenomenal numbers last year (148+ IP, 102 H, 8 HR, 22 BB, 151 K, 1.88 ERA), but is generally considered to have below-average stuff.  He's done very well by fooling inexperienced hitters with off-speed stuff -- something that former Orioles prospect John Stephens (132 IP, 21/130 BB/K ratio in AA 2001) mastered throughout his early minor league career.  In 65 MLB innings, however, Stephens was pummeled to the tune of 13 homers and a 6.09 ERA.  Slowey has also drawn comparisons to Brad Radke and Bob Tewksbury, so it's not all doom-and-gloom.

Barthmaier has a more lively fastball than Slowey, but less of a clue about where it's going once it leaves his hand.  He also has violent throwing mechanics that have led some scouts to believe he'd be better suited to the bullpen.  And Herrera had what one might call a "bad year" in 2006, missing the entire season after Tommy John surgery AND getting suspended for violation of MLB's drug policy.

#21 Great Lakes Sphinx
Ranked prospects: Miguel Montero (78), Sean Gallagher (114), Kei Igawa (135)
Unranked prospects: Wes Bankston, Brad Nelson, Mitch Atkins, Thomas Diamond, Angel Guzman, David Purcey

Like the Funkadelic, the Sphinx farm system should rank higher, given that Igawa was not ranked by five of our six experts.  If the best he does this year is perform as well as a typical major league #4 starter, that will still be more big league success than 80% of the pitchers in this study will ever enjoy.

Despite a somewhat tepid year, Montero is still considered to be among the top catching prospects in the game.  He earned a cup of coffee in the big leagues last September, and should stick around a bit longer this year.  But, as with most catching prospects, it could be several years before he makes a BDBL impact.  And Gallagher has some good tools, but is about as raw (55 BB's in 86 IP at AA) as a plate of sushi.

#22 Ravenswood Infidels
Ranked prospects: Sean Rodriguez (90), Mitch Talbot (106), Dellin Betances (122)
Unranked prospects: Mike Carp, Chris Carter (both of them), George Kottaras, Fred Lewis, Jermaine Mitchell, Eduardo Morlan, Richie Robnett, Curtis Thigpen, Ben Zobrist, Mitch Talbot, Rick Vanden Hurk

The Infidels farm has ranked among the bottom-five for five out of the past six years.  And yet, over that same timeframe, they've averaged 80 wins per season and own a BDBL championship.  So maybe this is a completely useless study after all.  Then again, you can't help but wonder how many wins they would have averaged had they had a few blue-chip prospects to use as trade bait.  A valid argument could be made for either side.

Rodriguez enjoyed a breakthrough year last year, hitting .307/.387/.557 while playing in two of the better hitter's leagues in minor league baseball.  However, he also struck out 144 times in 522 at-bats, leading some to believe that he'll have trouble adjusting as he moves up to the next level.  Talbot (156+ IP, 145 H, 47 BB, 155 K, 2.76 ERA at AA) is a favorite of BDBL prospect guru Tom DiStefano, which is always a nice thing to have on your resum�.  And Betances (23+ IP, 7 BB, 27 K in rookie ball) could very well be among the top 30 prospects in the game at this time next year.

Of the unranked group, Carp (.287/.379/.450 in the hitter-unfriendly FSL) is the most likely to join the ranked group next year.  He's also a David Luiciani poster boy.  I'll leave it up to you to decide whether that looks good on a resum�.

#23 Akron R�che
Ranked prospects: Jonathan Meloan (99)
Unranked prospects: Asdrubal Cabrera, Cory Dunlap, Mitch Maier, Gerardo Parra, Whitney Robbins, Angel Salome, Gabriel Sanchez, Seth Smith, Matt Whitney, Johnny Cueto, Brent Fisher, J.D. Martin, Shairon Martis, Manny Parra, Rafael Perez, Alexander Smit

Yep, just one ranked prospect...and he's ranked #99 overall...and we still have one more team to go.

Akron graduated two top-ten players from last year in Stephen Drew (#6) and Justin Verlander (#8), leaving the cupboard about as bear as it gets.  The lone ranked prospect is Meloan, a low-minors relief pitcher who is listed as the 7th-best prospect in the Dodgers system, according to Baseball America.  That's about all I have to say about that.

#24 Corona Confederates
Ranked prospects: Hank Conger (100)
Unranked prospects: Matt Antonelli, Paul Kelly, Marcus Sanders, Vince Sinisi, Brandon Snyder, Matt Sweeney, Taylor Teagarden, Josh Banks, Abe Alvarez, Jonah Bayliss, Chris Bootcheck, Justin Germano, Tyler Lumsden, Clint Nageotte, Francisco Rosario, Max Scherzer

Wow.  Talk about a fall from grace.  Up until now, the Confederates franchise has never ranked below the top ten.  I haven't seen such an embarrassing meltdown like this since Britney walked into Esther's Haircutting Studio.

If it's any consolation, Ed McGowan wins the coveted "Johnny Appleseed" award for 2007, given that he traded Cameron Maybin (#6), Jay Bruce (#7) and Ryan Braun (#20) over the past year.  The year before, his predecessor traded Delmon Young (#2) and Ian Stewart (#39), giving this franchise five former players in the top 40.  Johnny would be proud.

If you tally up the points of those five players, you get 2,472, which would have been good for fifth place.  Instead, this team has David Eckstein and Dave Roberts, plus fond memories of Ray Durham, Odalis Perez and Austin Kearns.